SEARCH · Search NASA

Results for “Sensitive data”

Search indexed NASA NTRS and DOE OSTI research on propulsion, heat transfer, battery materials and energy systems. Follow report and document links to the original sources.

SourceResearch connectionFrom yearThrough year

Quote a phrase for an exact phrase match. Source license links do not imply unrestricted reuse.

At least 325 records · Page 18

All sources NASA NTRS DOE OSTI

DOE OSTI2023

Data-Driven Affinely Adjustable Robust Volt/VAr Control

Recent years have seen the increasing proliferation of distributed energy resources with intermittent power outputs, posing new challenges to the voltage management in distribution networks. To this end, this paper proposes a data-driven affinely adjustable robust Volt/VAr control (AARVVC) scheme, which modulates the smart inverter’s reactive power in an affine function of its active power, based on the voltage sensitivities with respect to real/reactive power injections. To achieve a fast and accurate estimation of voltage sensitivities, we propose a data-driven method based on deep neural network (DNN), together with a rule-based bus-selection process using the bidirectional search method. Our method only uses the operating statuses of selected buses as inputs to DNN, thus significantly improving the training efficiency and reducing information redundancy. Finally, a distributed consensus-based solution, based on the alternating direction method of multipliers (ADMM), for the AARVVC is applied to decide the inverter’s reactive power adjustment rule with respect to its active power. Only limited information exchange is required between each local agent and the central agent to obtain the slope of the reactive power adjustment rule, and there is no need for the central agent to solve any (sub)optimization problems. Finally, numerical results on the modified IEEE-123 bus system validate the effectiveness and superiority of the proposed data-driven AARVVC method.

24 POWER TRANSMISSION AND DISTRIBUTION↗

DOE OSTI2023

On the dual advantage of placing observations through forward sensitivity analysis

The four-dimensional variational data assimilation methodology for assimilating noisy observations into a deterministic model has been the workhorse in forecasting centres for over three decades. While this method provides a computationally efficient framework for dynamic data assimilation, it is largely silent on the important question concerning the minimum number and placement of observations. To answer this question, we demonstrate the dual advantage of placing the observations where the square of the sensitivity of the model solution with respect to the unknown control variables, called forward sensitivities, attains its maximum. By following this approach, we can force the observability Gramian to be of full rank, which in turn guarantees efficient recovery of the optimal values of the control variables, which is the first of the two advantages of this strategy. We further show that the proposed strategy of placing observations has another inherent optimality: the square of the sensitivity of the optimal estimates of the control with respect to the observations (used to obtain these estimates) attains its minimum value, a second advantage that is a direct consequence of the above strategy for placing observations. Our analytical framework and numerical experiments on linear and nonlinear systems confirm the effectiveness of our proposed strategy.

97 MATHEMATICS AND COMPUTING↗

DOE OSTI2021

TeV Emission of Galactic Plane Sources with HAWC and H.E.S.S.

The High Altitude Water Cherenkov (HAWC) observatory and the High Energy Stereoscopic System (H.E.S.S.) are two leading instruments in the ground-based very-high-energy γ-ray domain. HAWC employs the water Cherenkov detection (WCD) technique, while H.E.S.S. is an array of Imaging Atmospheric Cherenkov Telescopes (IACTs). The two facilities therefore differ in multiple aspects, including their observation strategy, the size of their field of view, and their angular resolution, leading to different analysis approaches. Until now, it has been unclear if the results of observations by both types of instruments are consistent: several of the recently discovered HAWC sources have been followed up by IACTs, resulting in a confirmed detection only in a minority of cases. With this paper, we go further and try to resolve the tensions between previous results by performing a new analysis of the H.E.S.S. Galactic plane survey data, applying an analysis technique comparable between H.E.S.S. and HAWC. Events above 1 TeV are selected for both data sets, the point-spread function of H.E.S.S. is broadened to approach that of HAWC, and a similar background estimation method is used. This is the first detailed comparison of the Galactic plane observed by both instruments. H.E.S.S. can confirm the γ-ray emission of four HAWC sources among seven previously undetected by IACTs, while the three others have measured fluxes below the sensitivity of the H.E.S.S. data set. Remaining differences in the overall γ-ray flux can be explained by the systematic uncertainties. Therefore, we confirm a consistent view of the γ-ray sky between WCD and IACT techniques.

79 ASTRONOMY AND ASTROPHYSICS↗

DOE OSTI2022

Synchrotron-based techniques for characterizing STCH water-splitting materials

Understanding the role of oxygen vacancy–induced atomic and electronic structural changes to complex metal oxides during water-splitting processes is paramount to advancing the field of solar thermochemical hydrogen production (STCH). The formulation and confirmation of a mechanism for these types of chemical reactions necessitate a multifaceted experimental approach, featuring advanced structural characterization methods. Synchrotron X-ray techniques are essential to the rapidly advancing field of STCH in part due to properties such as high brilliance, high coherence, and variable energy that provide sensitivity, resolution, and rapid data acquisition times required for the characterization of complex metal oxides during water-splitting cycles. X-ray diffraction (XRD) is commonly used for determining the structures and phase purity of new materials synthesized by solid-state techniques and monitoring the structural integrity of oxides during water-splitting processes (e.g., oxygen vacancy–induced lattice expansion). X-ray absorption spectroscopy (XAS) is an element-specific technique and is sensitive to local atomic and electronic changes encountered around metal coordination centers during redox. While in operando measurements are desirable, the experimental conditions required for such measurements (high temperatures, controlled oxygen partial pressures, and H 2 O) practically necessitate in situ measurements that do not meet all operating conditions or ex situ measurements. Here, we highlight the application of synchrotron X-ray scattering and spectroscopic techniques using both in situ and ex situ measurements, emphasizing the advantages and limitations of each method as they relate to water-splitting processes. The best practices are discussed for preparing quenched states of reduction and performing synchrotron measurements, which focus on XRD and XAS at soft (e.g., oxygen K-edge, transition metal L-edges, and lanthanide M-edges) and hard (e.g., transition metal K-edges and lanthanide L-edges) X-ray energies. The X-ray absorption spectra of these complex oxides are a convolution of multiple contributions with accurate interpretation being contingent on computational methods. The state-of-the-art methods are discussed that enable peak positions and intensities to be related to material electronic and structural properties. Through careful experimental design, these studies can elucidate complex structure–property relationships as they pertain to nonstoichiometric water splitting. A survey of modern approaches for the evaluation of water-splitting materials at synchrotron sources under various experimental conditions is provided, and available software for data analysis is discussed.

08 HYDROGEN↗

DOE OSTI2023

Integrated Process Testing of MSR Salt Spill Accidents

Part of the licensing process for new nuclear reactors requires vendors to assess the potential consequences of identified accident scenarios using accident progression modeling. The accident scenario that will likely be evaluated by all molten salt reactor (MSR) developers is a spill of radionuclide-bearing fuel salt onto the reactor containment floor (i.e., a salt spill accident). The development of accident progression models requires experimental data to inform which processes to incorporate, to enable the calculation of parameters to model these processes, and to validate the model predictions. The data should quantify the sensitivities of key processes (e.g., molten salt spreading, heat transfer, containment structure corrosion, radionuclide vaporization, and aerosol generation) towards the initial conditions of the spill, the ambient environment, and the features of the containment. In addition, results from integrated process tests that quantify coupled processes are required to validate systems-level models. This report documents results from integrated process tests conducted on simulated molten salt spill accidents. The generated experimental data simultaneously quantify the heat transfer behavior of the spilled salt, compositional changes to the bulk salt, and the release of surrogate fission products from the spilled salt as aerosol particles. All tests that were conducted used FLiNaK doped with surrogate fission products, and the variables that were evaluated included the initial salt temperature and the concentration of surrogate fission products present in the salt. The major accomplishments of this work include identifying surrogate fuel salt compositions that provide insight into the dispersal behavior of radionuclides of potential significance to the source term, employing previously developed methods and measurement techniques to simultaneously measure key processes, generating data on the coupled processes of molten salt heat transfer and surrogate fission product release as aerosol particles, demonstrating new test methods for real-time monitoring of the flow rate of the spill and aerosol size quantification in an argon atmosphere, and developing a mass transfer model for cesium and iodine release from molten FLiNaK to provide insight into aerosol formation by vapor condensation. The same methodology applied herein can be employed to study different salt compositions of interest to MSR developers, different environmental conditions, and other variables that are relevant to postulated accident scenarios. The insights gained from these integrated process tests conducted at a laboratory scale will be incorporated into future integral effects tests conducted at an engineering scale.

20 FOSSIL-FUELED POWER PLANTS↗

DOE OSTI2020

Workshop Report for Next-Gen AI for Proliferation Detection: Accelerating the Development and Use of Explainability Methods to Design AI Systems Suitable for Nonproliferation Mission Applications

Artificial intelligence (AI) promises powerful new capabilities in an expansive array of applications. One area is proliferation detection, where AI can provide transformative tools to achieve objectives currently inaccessible using conventional methods. In particular, AI affords the opportunity to use new indicators and process massive amounts of heterogeneous data that can increase sensitivity to proliferant activities and push proliferation detection to the earliest possible stages. However, existing AI tools are not ready to achieve such potential, falling short in regard to some important considerations involved in proliferation detection. One crucial aspect that requires improvement is the explainability of the most powerful AI algorithms (i.e., understanding how the algorithms actually arrive at their conclusions)-the lack of which prevents widespread adoption in national security missions. The Data Science and AI portfolio within the National Nuclear Security Administration's Office of Defense Nuclear Nonproliferation Research and Development is driving the development of next-generation AI for proliferation detection through the expertise and work of the national laboratories and partners in academia. The "Next-Gen AI for Proliferation Detection: Accelerating the Development and Use of Explainability Methods to Design AI Systems Suitable for Nonproliferation Mission Applications" workshop aimed to further this objective. The meeting was held virtually on Sept. 15-16, 2020 and included more than 170 participants, primarily from the national laboratories with additional contributions from university researchers and mission partners. Each day included a keynote presentation, four technical presentations about cutting-edge research in explainability, and a panel to explore considerations in applying explainability and developing AI systems that can accelerate the transition of emerging AI technologies among partners and end users to solve critical mission questions. This report summarizes the Next-Gen AI for Proliferation Detection workshop's content and findings.

98 NUCLEAR DISARMAMENT, SAFEGUARDS, AND PHYSICAL P↗

DOE OSTI2022

Feature Extraction for Pipeline Defects Inspection Based Upon Distributed Acoustic Fiber Optic Sensing Data

Fiber-optic distributed acoustic sensing (DAS) is becoming an increasingly important tool for real-time monitoring of energy and civil infrastructure structural health such as pipelines. We present a systematic theoretical study of the potential for DAS to be directly coupled with guided ultrasonic waves typically used in conventional acoustic non-destructive evaluation (NDE) methods for real-time pipeline health monitoring. We are referring to this innovative new NDE technique as ultrasonic guided wave and optical fiber sensor fusion. In the practical application of DAS coupled with guided ultrasonic waves, the structural design of (1) the specific guided waves excited, (2) the physical installation of the acoustic transducers and the fiber optic sensors, and (3) the functional performance specifications (gauge length, sensitivity, Etc.) of fiber optic DAS have an important influence on overall capabilities of the monitoring system. Meanwhile, physics-based analysis of acoustic waves is still a challenge due to the complex nature of the Lamb wave when it propagates, scatters, and disperses in the presence of structural defects. In this work, we simulate carbon steel pipes relevant for oil and gas pipeline applications with diameters of approximately 6-12” and wall thickness of 0.5” as the objects to be monitored. By establishing and implementing these capabilities, we seek to pursue an in-depth study on structural parameter optimization of DAS network, measurement range, and signal processing with an ultimate goal of increasing the sensitivity and efficacy of DAS to defect identification for various modes of corrosion expected in practice. To study the characteristics of scattered acoustic waves and performance of DAS for defect identification, we simulated the response of DAS for multiple pipe structures, defect types, and DAS sensor network configuration using finite element software Ansys, then the properties of signal response are extracted to construct defect-sensitive features. The raw data simulated, and the associated features extracted can ultimately be utilized as annotated training data to benchmark various designs for DAS applications, guided acoustic excitation sources, and learning model parameters to enhance early detection of potentially problematic defects.

Pipeline Defects Inspection, Fiber-optic sensors, ↗

DOE OSTI2022

Post-hazard condition assessment of nuclear piping-equipment systems: Novel approach to feature extraction and deep learning

Over the past decade, the use of artificial intelligence techniques in the field of health-monitoring has gained significant interest, especially for structures such as building and bridges. However, applications to industrial systems such as equipment-piping systems in nuclear plants have not been explored. Here, in this paper, it is shown that the existing techniques developed for buildings and bridges cannot be extended directly to equipment-piping systems as the response of such systems is governed by multiple localized modes unlike that in buildings and bridges. This paper proposes a new approach that consists of three key aspects: (i) a novel vector of degradation-sensitive features extracted from measured data, (ii) using a deep Artificial Neural Network (ANN) for diagnosis of degradation location and degradation severity, and (iii) consideration of uncertainty in degradation severity when training the ANN. Degradation in piping-equipment systems can occur due to flow-accelerated erosion and corrosion. These locations can potentially exhibit damage such as localized yielding or initiation of cracking due to an external event such as an earthquake. Moreover, such locations can at times go undetected by current inspection techniques. Therefore, a robust framework is needed for detection of degradation after a seismic event. This manuscript proposes a proof-of-concept framework, which utilizes data collected from sensors to generate a deep ANN database for predicting degraded locations and severity in a piping-equipment system. Degradation severity is classified as minor, moderate, and severe. In the suggested methodology, a novel vector of degradation-sensitive features is extracted from the sensor data to train the ANN. A simple piping-equipment system is selected to demonstrate feature extraction as a means to simplify pattern recognition, explore the design and parameters of an ANN, and develop a sensor placement strategy. The effectiveness of the proposed framework is demonstrated on a realistic primary safety system of a two-loop nuclear reactor. It is shown that the proposed post-hazard condition assessment framework is able to detect degraded locations along with the severity levels, including minor degradation, with considerably higher accuracy.

22 GENERAL STUDIES OF NUCLEAR REACTORS↗

DOE OSTI2021

Progress on the reevaluation and validation of the n+233U neutron cross sections

The set of 233 U resonance parameters of the ENDF/B-VIII.0 nuclear data library was adopted from the previous ENDF/B-VII.1 evaluation using the external levels to update the thermal values. Adoption of IAEA 2017 thermal standards ( σ f = 533.0 ± 2.2 b, σ c = 44.9 ± 0.9 b, and ν ‾ tot = 2.487 ± 0.011 ) and of the IAEA-recommended thermal-neutron induced prompt fission neutron spectrum (PFNS) with average PFNS energy of 2.030 ± 0.013 MeV requires a re-evaluation of 233 U neutron cross sections in the resolved resonance region. A newly produced evaluation is being tested on benchmarks carefully selected from the Handbook of International Criticality Safety Benchmark Experiments (ICSBEP) which are highly sensitive to 233 U data. An important goal of this work was to eliminate the strong negative gradient of the calculated effective multiplication factors with respect to the epithermal fission fraction observed in the validation of the ENDF/B-VIII.0 library for those assemblies. A significant improvement in integral performance of critical 233 U solutions is observed for the newly proposed evaluation. Further work addressing the fast neutron region is needed.

22 GENERAL STUDIES OF NUCLEAR REACTORS↗

DOE OSTI2023

Experimental Validation of Thermal Scattering Evaluations

In order to test the performance of new neutron thermal scattering law (TSL) evaluations it is desirable to have experimental data that is highly sensitive to the TSL and provides high fidelity information on the energy dependent performance of TSL evaluations. Three relevant experiments are discussed including: accurate thermal total cross section measurements, thermal neutron die-away experiments, and neutron leakage experiments. The experimental setups and results are reviewed, and examples provided for some moderators including polyethylene, Plexiglas, and YHx. For the experiments preformed thus far, there is generally good agreement between the measured total cross section and simulations using current TSL evaluations, however in certain energy ranges differences were observed. Similarly, neutron die-away and leakage measurements for samples at room temperature are in good agreement with data computed from TSLs, however leakage measurements for polyethylene at 29K show discrepancies with TSL evaluations.

73 NUCLEAR PHYSICS AND RADIATION PHYSICS↗

DOE OSTI2026

Probing BSM Oscillatory Signals with the DUNE Detectors and the LBNF Neutrino Beam: NSI and Sterile Neutrino Sensitivities

The Deep Underground Neutrino Experiment (DUNE) is a flagship long-baseline accelerator neutrino experiment under construction in the U.S. With a 1,300 km distance between its Near Detector (ND) and Far Detector (FD), the world’s most intense LBNF (Long-Baseline Neutrino Facility) neutrino beam, and high-resolution LArTPC (Liquid Argon Time Projection Chamber) detectors, DUNE will measure the neutrino oscillation parameters with unprecedented precision. In addition to the determination of the neutrino mass ordering and the potential discovery of Charge-Parity violation in the leptonic sector, DUNE's capabilities present a unique opportunity for probing Beyond the Standard Model (BSM) physics signals with neutrinos. Examples of BSM physics manifestations include the presence of Non-Standard Interactions (NSI) of neutrinos with matter, or the existence of sterile neutrinos that mix with 3-Flavor neutrinos. In this study, we present a joint ND+FD fit to simulated data assessing DUNE's sensitivity to probing neutrino NSI, as well as scenarios including sterile neutrino mixing.

Prais, Luiz [Cincinnati U.] (ORCID:000000018224947↗

DOE OSTI2025

High-Frequency Gravitational Wave Search with ABRACADABRA-10 cm

ABRACADABRA-10 cm has had great success as a pathfinder lumped-element axion dark matter experiment, setting limits on axion dark matter at the GUT scale. Now, using the interaction of gravitational waves with electrodynamics and a change in readout strategy, we use the ABRA-10 cm detector for the first search for high-frequency gravitational waves using a modified axion detector. Potential sources at these high frequencies (10 kHz to 5 MHz) include merging primordial black hole binaries or superradiance, among other beyond the standard model phenomena. This paper presents the design, results, and challenges from the ABRA-10 cm high-frequency gravitational wave search, showing it is possible to simultaneously look for axions and high-frequency gravitational waves with both searches matching theoretical expectations for sensitivity. Additionally, we conducted the first time series transient search with data from an axion experiment, achieving sensitivity to $10^{-4}$ in strain. Scaled directly to the next generation axion experiment, DMRadio-GUT, this sensitivity would imply a reach to 0.01 $M_{\odot}$ primordial black hole mergers at distances around 3 pc, with prospects to go significantly further with modifications to the readout.

Pappas, Kaliroë M.W. [MIT, LNS] (ORCID:00000003425↗

DOE OSTI2025

Constraining the impact of chlorine as a neutron absorber in next-gen fast reactor designs

The role of chlorine as a neutron poison and as a seed for producing radioactive waste in nuclear systems has driven a renewed interest to improve its nuclear data uncertainties. Additionally, basic and applied science programs that use CLYC (Cs 2 LiYCl 6 :Ce) detectors for neutron spectroscopy and monitoring are also very sensitive to any change in chlorine nuclear data for simulations of the detector response. In this work, sensitivities relevant for these different applications are addressed through simulations of the efficiency of CLYC detectors in a fast fission spectrum when applying new chlorine nuclear data as input. These simulations are validated by an experimental measurement using CLYC detectors coupled to an ionization chamber loaded with a 252 Cf spontaneous fission source. The results are then used to obtain the first reliable direct measurement of the 35 Cl(n,p 0 ) and summed Cl(n,p+n,α) fission spectrum average cross sections, found to be 54.7(32) and 105.0(98) mb, respectively. The results are within uncertainty of calculated fission spectrum averaged cross sections based on recently re-evaluated chlorine nuclear data, which confirm recent impact studies performed for the Molten Chloride Reactor Experiment. Meanwhile, there currently exists only one published criticality benchmark experiment that is sufficiently sensitive to chlorine nuclear data. Discrepancies are found with this set of criticality safety benchmarks, which are more sensitive to thermal and epithermal neutron energies than the energies, above 100 keV, tested in this current work. Hence, there is still a need to re-evaluate the chlorine nuclear data at lower energies to assess these discrepancies. Interpretation of the data from future “faster” criticality benchmarks, which are needed for next-gen fast reactor designs, benefit from the improved constraints on the chlorine nuclear data validated in this work.

73 NUCLEAR PHYSICS AND RADIATION PHYSICS↗

DOE OSTI2021

Update on NNL TSL Evaluations and Validation [Slides]

12 new/revised TSL evaluations were contributed to ENDF/B-VIII.1. The thermal diffusion length $L$ is an integral property of a single material’s absorption and scattering cross sections (both differential and integral). No other neutron reactions or materials are involved. The MC21-calculated $L$ for water is consistent with the spread of experimental data and is sufficiently sensitive to different H-H 2 O TSL physics models to use the method as a TSL integral performance benchmark. Modern high-quality diffusion experiments at elevated $T$ would allow direct low-cost physics benchmarking of water TSLs when public elevated-$T$ critical benchmarks are limited. NNL is working with LLNL and RPI to develop experimental PNDA capability. An ICSBEP Fundamental Physics benchmark of the Nassar and Murphy PNDA experiment is being developed to provide an example of how to evaluate these type of benchmarks.

73 NUCLEAR PHYSICS AND RADIATION PHYSICS↗

DOE OSTI2023

Validation of Octane Hyperboosting Phenomenon in Prenol and Structurally Related Olefinic Alcohols

Hyperboosting is a recently discovered phenomenon in which the research octane number (RON) of a blend is higher than both the neat blendstock and the neat fuel it was blended into. RON is a measure of a fuel's resistance to knock, and knock is a cause of engine inefficiency. Blends which exhibit hyperboosting are blends in which an overall improvement in engine efficiency may be expected. The first discovery of hyperboosting came from blending experiments in which prenol was blended into several different base fuels. Here, ignition delay time (IDT) measurements taken using a commercially available constant volume combustion chamber called the Advanced Fuel Ignition Delay Analyzer (AFIDA) are presented. The data show that some prenol blends have longer IDTs (lower reactivity) than either neat prenol or the base fuel, providing further evidence of hyperboosting. Additionally, more blending data is presented in which the base fuel is varied, which allows for a better understanding of hyperboosting sensitivity to chemical classes. The data indicate that aromatics may inhibit, and branched alkanes may enhance the magnitude of hyperboosting observed. Enthalpy of vaporization estimates are also given for several molecules which are blended into a 4-component surrogate. These estimates are derived from Equation of State simulations and reveal that there is no observable correlation between hyperboosting and enthalpy of vaporization. Blending data for molecules which share structural similarities with prenol are also presented. Structure property relationships are suggested, in which the double bond motif of prenol seems to play an important role in hyperboosting. This may help to understand hyperboosting and its underlying mechanism. Lastly, blending curves of surrogate blends with prenol experienced hyperboosting under lean (Homogeneous Charged Compression Ignition-HCCI) operating conditions, which validates that hyperboosting is not an artifact of the octane test methods, but inherent to the properties of prenol.

ADVANCED PROPULSION SYSTEMS↗

DOE OSTI2022

Estimating SHmax azimuth with P sources and vertical geophones: Use P-P reflection amplitudes or use SV-P reflection times?

We compared two methods for extracting the azimuth of maximum horizontal stress (SHmax) from 3D land-based seismic data generated by a P source and recorded with vertical geophones. In the first method, we used the direct-SV mode that is produced by all land-based P sources. P sources generate SV illumination that radiates in all azimuth directions from a source station and creates SV-P reflections that are recorded by vertical geophones. Unless stratigraphy has steep dip, SV-P raypaths recorded by vertical geophones are the reverse of P-SV raypaths recorded by horizontal geophones. Thus, SV-P data provide the same S-wave sensitivity to stress fields as popular P-SV data do. In the second method, we retrieved P-P reflections and then performed an amplitude-variation-with-azimuth (AVA) analysis of the amplitude-gradient behavior of P-P reflection wavelets. We did this analysis in narrow azimuth corridors to determine the gradient of reflection-wavelet amplitudes as a function of azimuth. This P-P AVA amplitude-gradient method has been of great interest in the reflection seismology community since it was introduced in the late 1990s. Each of these methods, AVA analysis of the gradient of P-P reflection amplitudes and azimuth-dependent arrival times of SV-P reflections, can be used to determine the azimuth of SHmax stress. We compare the results of the two methods with ground truth measurements of SHmax azimuth at a CO 2 sequestration site in the Michigan Basin. SHmax azimuths were determined from P-P and SV-P data at three major boundaries at depths of approximately 3500 ft (1067 m), 5500 ft (1676 m), and 7500 ft (2286 m). Two estimates of SHmax azimuth (one using SV-P data and one using P-P data) were made at each stacking bin inside a 24 mi 2 (62 km 2 ) image space. The result was approximately 98,000 estimates of SHmax azimuth across each of these three boundaries for each of these two prediction strategies. Histogram displays of PP AVA gradient estimates had peaks at correct azimuths of SHmax at all three depths, but the spread of the distributions widened with depth and split into two peaks at the deepest boundary. In contrast, each histogram of SHmax azimuth predicted by azimuth-dependent SV-P traveltimes had a single, definitive peak that was positioned at the correct SHmax azimuth at all three boundary depths.

Geochemistry & Geophysics↗

DOE OSTI2023

Seeing through noise in power laws

Despite widespread claims of power laws across the natural and social sciences, evidence in data is often equivocal. Modern data and statistical methods reject even classic power laws such as Pareto’s law of wealth and the Gutenberg–Richter law for earthquake magnitudes. We show that the maximum-likelihood estimators and Kolmogorov–Smirnov (K-S) statistics in widespread use are unexpectedly sensitive to ubiquitous errors in data such as measurement noise, quantization noise, heaping and censorship of small values. This sensitivity causes spurious rejection of power laws and biases parameter estimates even in arbitrarily large samples, which explains inconsistencies between theory and data. We show that logarithmic binning by powers of λ > 1 attenuates these errors in a manner analogous to noise averaging in normal statistics and that λ thereby tunes a trade-off between accuracy and precision in estimation. Binning also removes potentially misleading within-scale information while preserving information about the shape of a distribution over powers of λ, and we show that some amount of binning can improve sensitivity and specificity of K-S tests without any cost, while more extreme binning tunes a trade-off between sensitivity and specificity. We therefore advocate logarithmic binning as a simple essential step in power-law inference.

29 ENERGY PLANNING, POLICY, AND ECONOMY↗

DOE OSTI2023

Seeing through noise in power laws

97 MATHEMATICS AND COMPUTING↗