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Search indexed NASA NTRS and DOE OSTI research on propulsion, heat transfer, battery materials and energy systems. Follow report and document links to the original sources.

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At least 325 records · Page 18

Charges on a suspended silicon nitride membrane under a high-energy electron beam

Thin silicon nitride (SiN x ) membranes are widely used in gas and liquid phase transmission electron microscopy (TEM) and as phase plates to enhance imaging contrast. SiN x contains trap sites for both positive and negative charges, which can be manipulated by high-energy electron irradiation, external potential biasing, or light exposure. Charge accumulation on the membrane can significantly affect in situ TEM processes, including chemical and electrochemical reactions, nanoparticle dynamics, and catalytic activity, or introduce unwanted phase shifts when used as a phase plate. Here, in this study, charge accumulation on suspended SiN x membranes was investigated using off-axis electron holography combined with model-free charge analysis, supported by custom finite element analysis (FEA) simulations. An average residual positive charge density of approximately 2.8 × 10 −4 C m −2 was measured. Localized and stable regions of both positive and negative charges were identified on the membrane. The global positive and localized positive/negative charges give rise to strong electric fields and electroosmotic slip velocities at the membrane surface, which are sufficient to induce non-Brownian particle behavior and directional fluid flow, offering a physical explanation for previously observed anomalies in particle dynamics, nucleation, and growth during gas and liquid phase TEM experiments. These results provide a benchmark for understanding charge behavior at SiNx interfaces in gas and liquid phase TEM. Furthermore, the FEA simulations establish a framework for future investigations into charge distribution, electrostatic potentials, and electrical double layers at solid–liquid interfaces, particularly in complex geometries and chemically dynamic environments.

Suspended silicon↗

High-Fidelity Multiphysics Modeling of a Heat Pipe Microreactor Using BlueCrab

Researchers who are actively developing nuclear microreactors are planning to employ innovative designs and features using traditional commercial modeling tools that may be inadequate for their design and licensing activities. The codes developed under the U.S. Department of Energy Office of Nuclear Energy Advanced Modeling and Simulation (NEAMS) program provide flexibility in terms of geometry modeling and multiphysics coupling and are particularly well suited for modeling novel microreactor concepts. To test the maturity of these codes, this paper introduces a conceptual heat pipe microreactor (HP-MR) designed to gather various technologies of interest to microreactor developers such as control drums, heat pipes, and hydride moderators. Here, the objective of this effort is to demonstrate NEAMS tools capability to perform high-fidelity multiphysics simulations, using coupled neutronics (via the Griffin code), heat conduction (via the BISON code), heat pipe modeling (via the Sockeye code), and hydrogen redistribution in hydride metal moderator (via the SWIFT code). Codes are coupled in-memory through the Multiphysics Object-Oriented Simulation Environment (MOOSE) framework, which permits flexible multiphysics data transfer schemes. The analysis confirmed two key aspects of the HP-MR concept: (1) its ability to follow the power load requested from the heat pipe and (2) its ability to avoid heat pipe cascading failure unless designed with high power close to operating failure limits of its heat pipes. The developed computational model was distributed publicly on the Virtual Test Bed for training purposes to accelerate adoption by industry and to provide a high-fidelity multiphysics solution for benchmarking against other tools. Additional multiphysics analyses including other transients and coupled physics were identified as necessary future work, together with a focus on validating multiphysics behavior against experiments.

Microreactor↗

Temperature Field Reconstruction of Surfaces Heated Through Radiative Heat Transfer Using Convolutional Neural Networks

Microreactors could play a crucial role in decarbonizing our energy portfolio. However, their development and implementation come with specific challenges, particularly regarding cost. Due to their compact size and the harsh operational environment, collecting real-time data on reactor operation can be challenging. Many probe designs are unable to withstand extreme conditions (e.g., temperature, radiation) in the reactor. In this context, using convolutional neural networks (CNNs) can pave the way for developing a nonintrusive approach that relies solely on ex-core sensors. A well-trained physics-informed CNN can reconstruct the distribution of a given physical quantity over a domain using only a few sensors, allowing us to reconstruct the desired field distribution even in a limited space or complex geometries where a large array of sensors is impractical. In this work, we present the initial steps toward developing a real-time tool for monitoring the thermal behavior of nuclear reactor pressure vessels. Based on an experimental setup, a computational model using the Multiphysics Object-Oriented Simulation Environment (moose) framework was built, where the Ray Tracing and Heat Conduction modules were used to evaluate the temperature distribution over a convex metal surface heated through radiative heat transfer. This metal surface represents a section of a heated nuclear reactor vessel wall. The model also accounts for solid mechanics physics through the moose Solid Mechanics module. In situ experimental data, acquired from a Texas A&M facility, were used to validate the computational model. Part of the data generated by the moose model was used to train the convolutional neural network to reconstruct the vessel wall's outer surface temperature. The CNN generalization was then compared against the experimental and computational data.

Aldeia Machado, Luiz Carlos↗

US-UK fusion energy collaborations in the digital space

The US and UK share the vision for fusion as a vital part of the clean energy future. This vision is reflected in the respective national plans in the form of the Bold Decadal Vision for Commercial Fusion (BDV) in the US and the Spherical Tokamak for Energy Production (STEP) program in the UK. Digital tools such as simulation and control frameworks, design tools, AI/ML, high performance computing (HPC), and virtual reality (VR) will play an important role in developing, diagnosing, operating, and further improving burning-plasma-class fusion power plants. Therefore, a collaborative approach, involving both the public and private sectors, to developing these digital tools can accelerate the path to fusion energy commercialization. In this report we discuss previous and ongoing collaborations and opportunities to expand these collaborations into new areas. We conclude this report with near term actions and a vision of the collaboration to the Joint Coordinating Committee.

70 PLASMA PHYSICS AND FUSION TECHNOLOGY↗

LLNL FESP Theory Highlights: August 2024

The 2024 ABOUND SciDAC and BOUT++ combined workshop was held August 5-9 th 2024 at the University of California Livermore Collaboration Center (UCLC) in Livermore. Bringing together leading scientists and researchers from across the globe, this pivotal event focused on advancing plasma physics and boundary plasma dynamics within the context of fusion energy research. Key discussions throughout the meeting highlighted significant advancements in the BOUT++ framework, including enhanced simulations of small Edge Localized Modes (ELMs) and the initiation of integrating the integration of the 5D GEM gyrokinetic turbulence core code with the 2D SOLPS-ITER boundary transport code. These developments are crucial for managing heat loads in fusion reactors and supporting the longevity of plasma-facing components. The event also featured a session on Inter-SciDAC Collaborations, where principal investigators from multiple U.S. FES SciDAC tokamak projects explored opportunities for cross-collaboration. Additionally, the meeting showcased cutting-edge advancements in GPU acceleration and AI/ML technologies, poised to drive the next generation of fusion research. In his closing remarks, Dr. Xueqiao Xu emphasized the importance of the collaborative efforts and discussions that took place, noting their potential to shape future breakthroughs in fusion energy. The event underscored the global nature of the BOUT++ collaboration, with contributions from over 57 institutions worldwide. The 2024 BOUT++ and ABOUND Joint Hybrid Meeting continues to drive forward the research and innovations needed to achieve fusion energy, setting the stage for future collaboration and discovery.

70 PLASMA PHYSICS AND FUSION TECHNOLOGY↗

Comprehensive Neural Posterior Estimation for Galaxy-Galaxy Strong Lensing

We present a deep learning model based on neural posterior estimation (NPE) for comprehensive extraction of astrophysical parameters from galaxy-scale strong gravitational lenses. The unprecedentedly large amount of galaxy-scale strong lenses expected in future cosmological surveys (${\cal O}(10^5)$) promises to enable valuable statistical constraints in various studies ranging from galaxy formation to the nature of dark matter, but it also poses a significant challenge for traditional modelling pipelines. To this end, our automated model includes several new, state-of-the-art features and approaches leveraging the framework of simulation-based inference (SBI). We infer a total of 20 parameters describing the mass and light profiles of both lens and source galaxies, using simulated raw multi-band data modelled under noise and observing conditions expected by the Legacy Survey of Space and Time (LSST), with its summary statistics generated by a residual network. We examine the efficacy of multi-band data in extracting nearly 20 model parameters simultaneous from strong lensing images including lens light. Finally, We perform a comprehensive set of diagnostics for SBI models, evaluating the model's prediction accuracy, stability, and uncertainty quantification.

Zhao, Roy J. [Chicago U., KICP]↗

Focused Ion Beam Tomography of Alloy 617 Corroded in Molten Chloride Salt

Materials qualification of reactor structural materials is a critical step in rapid implementation of advanced nuclear reactor technologies, particularly to assess the corrosion performance in these designs. Accelerated qualification of reactor structural materials requires incorporating powerful computational toolsets, such as phase field modelling in the Multiphysics Object-Oriented Simulation Environment (MOOSE) framework, to predict the evolution of structural materials due to corrosion. Accordingly, computational toolsets will require experimental data generated at appropriate length scales to validate accuracy. Focused ion beam (FIB) provides a high degree of control over manipulation of materials for analytical purposes, including capturing data on the evolution in the microstructure and elemental composition of materials at the mesoscale, an appropriate length scale for phase field modelling of intergranular diffusion phenomena using the MOOSE framework. For instance, the FEI Helios G4 UX dual beam plasma FIB microscope at the Irradiated Materials Characterization Laboratory (IMCL) is capable of backscatter diffraction (EBSD) and energy-dispersive x-ray spectroscopy (EDS) documenting the evolution in the microstructure and elemental composition, respectively. The Helios can perform EDS and EBSD three-dimensionally (3D) using tomography, which is then combined using different software packages to visualize 3D volumes correlating elemental composition to microstructural data. The purpose of this investigation was to develop a streamlined characterization and data processing workflow for 3D tomography studies on the FEI Helios G4 plasma FIB. The investigation is segmented into three parts: 1) Optimizing the data collection workflow, 2) identifying appropriate data processing and visualization software (i.e. DREAM.3D, MIPAR, and VGStudioMax), and 3) establishing an infrastructure for public release. The optimization of the data collection workflow is in collaboration with members of the U220 department to setup formal training on the tomography operation of the G4, through ThermoFisher Scientific, and exploring DREAM.3D, MIPAR, and VGStudioMax data processing/visualization software packages. VGStudioMax currently demonstrates the most promise for future use. Optimization of the data collection and processing workflow is still ongoing. A collaboration with INL High Performance Computing (HPC) established an open-source license for expediting the public release of FIB tomography datasets through HPC. FIB tomography data generated by the G4 will provide comprehensive data for validating 3D phase field mesoscale modelling tools within the MOOSE framework for accelerated qualification of reactor structural materials.

Copeland-Johnson, Trishelle↗

A DECADE of dwarfs: first detection of weak lensing around spectroscopically confirmed low-mass galaxies

We present the first detection of weak gravitational lensing around spectroscopically confirmed dwarf galaxies, using the large overlap between DESI DR1 spectroscopic data and DECADE/DES weak lensing catalogs. A clean dwarf galaxy sample with well-defined redshift and stellar mass cuts enables excess surface mass density measurements in two stellar mass bins ($\log \rm{M}_*=[8.2, 9.2]~M_\odot$ and $\log \rm{M}_*=[9.2, 10.2]~M_\odot$), with signal-to-noise ratios of $5.6$ and $12.4$ respectively. This signal-to-noise drops to $4.5$ and $9.2$ respectively for measurements without applying individual inverse probability (IIP) weights, which mitigates fiber incompleteness from DESI's targeting. The measurements are robust against variations in stellar mass estimates, photometric shredding, and lensing calibration systematics. Using a simulation-based modeling framework with stellar mass function priors, we constrain the stellar mass-halo mass relation and find a satellite fraction of $\simeq 0.3$, which is higher than previous photometric studies but $1.5σ$ lower than $Λ$CDM predictions. We find that IIP weights have a significant impact on lensing measurements and can change the inferred $f_{\rm{sat}}$ by a factor of two, highlighting the need for accurate fiber incompleteness corrections for dwarf galaxy samples. Our results open a new observational window into the galaxy-halo connection at low masses, showing that future massively multiplexed spectroscopic observations and weak lensing data will enable stringent tests of galaxy formation models and $Λ$CDM predictions.

To, Chun-Hao [Chicago U., Astron. Astrophys. Ctr.;↗

Solar Neutrino Detection with a Pixelated Liquid-Argon Time Projection Chamber

This thesis presents a study of low-energy solar neutrino detection using large-scale LArTPCs, focussing on novel pixelated readout technologies. Solar neutrinos offer a unique probe of fundamental neutrino properties and solar physics, but their detection in the MeV range is challenged by backgrounds. We investigate two complementary technologies: SoLAr, which integrates LArPix-based pixelated charge collection with Silicon Photomultipliers (SiPMs) in a hybrid anode design for simultaneous charge and light detection; and Q-Pix, a triggerless pixelated readout architecture based on charge integrate-reset circuits with local clocks, where Reset Time Differences encode ionisation waveforms via time-to-charge conversion. Two SoLAr prototypes were developed and operated, demonstrating VUV-sensitive SiPM performance in liquid argon and accurate charge-light signal matching with a charge detection threshold of $\sim 100 \mathrm{keV}$. We also implement a complete simulation and reconstruction framework, incorporating realistic detector geometry, electron transport, readout response, and detailed signal and background models, including intrinsic argon and radon progeny, as well as site-specific $\gamma$-ray and neutron fluxes. For Q-Pix, we demonstrate that with a pixel size of $4\times 4$ mm$^2$ and a reset threshold of 1 fC ($\sim 0.1475$ MeV), full-scale operation produces data volumes below 1 PB per 10 ktonne-year. For SoLAr, assuming a shielded DUNE-like detector and 100 ktonne-year exposure, we project uncertainties of $0.90\times 10^{-5}$ eV$^2$ on $\Delta m^2_{21}$ and 0.033 on $\sin^2\theta_{12}$, improving to $0.46\times 10^{-5}$ eV$^2$ and 0.025 with 400 kilotonne-year. At this higher exposure, we also obtain a day–night flux asymmetry at the level of $( -5.6 \pm 3.6 ) \%$. Combining Monte Carlo modelling, hardware validation, and advanced reconstruction techniques, this work establishes a path toward next-generation ktonne-scale LArTPCs as observatories for precision solar neutrino physics.

Ruiz Ferreira, Guilherme [Manchester U.] (ORCID:00↗

Proof-of-Concept for Sensor Modeling in MOOSE for the Design of Autonomous Nuclear Reactor Control

Autonomous operation is essential for the deployment of microreactors and fission batteries, both in terrestrial and space applications. However, prototypes of microreactors and fission batteries do not exist yet, and even the design space has not been narrowed down conclusively, making the instrumentation and control system design difficult. For this reason, there is a need for flexible computational capabilities to create a numerical stand-in of potential microreactor and fission battery designs. The latter can be used to design and test control strategies to support autonomous operations. In this paper, we describe the initial implementation of a pluggable sensor system for the easy implementation of realistic sensor models in the multiphysics object-oriented simulation environment (MOOSE) framework. This new capability will enable MOOSE users to create a numerical stand-in of microreactors and fission batteries, ultimately allowing them to easily test new control algorithms, and instrumentation strategies for advanced systems in the design phase

22 - GENERAL STUDIES OF NUCLEAR REACTORS↗

Proof-of-Concept for Sensor Modeling in MOOSE for the Design of Autonomous Nuclear Reactor Control

Autonomous operation is essential for the deployment of microreactors and fission batteries, both in terrestrial and space applications. For this reason, recent studies have investigated autonomous control by using adaptive model predictive control and multi-objective optimization for heat pipe–cooled microreactors under normal and heat pipe failure conditions. However, prototypes of microreactors and fission batteries do not exist yet, and even the design space has not been narrowed down conclusively, making the instrumentation and control system design difficult. For this reason, there is a need for flexible computational capabilities to create a numerical stand-in of potential microreactor and fission battery designs. The latter can be used to design and test control strategies to support autonomous operations. In this poster, we describe the initial implementation of a pluggable sensor system for the easy implementation of realistic sensor models in the multiphysics object-oriented simulation environment (MOOSE) framework. This new capability will enable MOOSE users to create a numerical stand-in of microreactors and fission batteries, ultimately allowing them to easily test new control algorithms, and instrumentation strategies for advanced systems in the design phase.

22 - GENERAL STUDIES OF NUCLEAR REACTORS↗

MOOSE Web Server Interface: A Message-based External Interface for Multiphysics Simulations

The Multiphysics Object-Oriented Simulation Environment (MOOSE) framework is a C++ toolkit designed to streamline the development of finite element and finite volume applications. It offers an interface for input-based coupling of these applications to create multiscale, multiphysics models. We introduce a new capability that enables external applications to integrate with MOOSE-based applications in situ via a web server using HTTP requests. An example of this integration is provided, where a MOOSE thermal-fluids solve has a boundary condition that is driven by an external Python application. Additionally, the coupling of the Python-based OpenMC depletion solver with the Cardinal application is demonstrated. A multiphysics model of a pressurized water reactor, incorporating neutronics, heat conduction, thermal-fluids, and depletion, is presented to showcase this new Cardinal capability that is enabled by the MOOSE web server capability.

22 - GENERAL STUDIES OF NUCLEAR REACTORS↗

MOOSE Web Server Interface: A Message-based External Interface for Multiphysics Simulations

The Multiphysics Object-Oriented Simulation Environment (MOOSE) framework is a C++ toolkit designed to streamline the development of finite element and finite volume applications. It offers an interface for input-based coupling of these applications to create multiscale, multiphysics models. We introduce a new capability that enables external applications to integrate with MOOSE-based applications in situ via a web server using HTTP requests. An example of this integration is provided, where a MOOSE thermal-fluids solve has a boundary condition that is driven by an external Python application. Additionally, the coupling of the Python-based OpenMC depletion solver with the Cardinal application is demonstrated. A multiphysics model of a pressurized water reactor, incorporating neutronics, heat conduction, thermal-fluids, and depletion, is presented to showcase this new Cardinal capability that is enabled by the MOOSE web server capability.

22 - GENERAL STUDIES OF NUCLEAR REACTORS↗

Prospects for Astrobiology and Technosignature Searches with the Vera C. Rubin Observatory Legacy Survey of Space and Time

The Vera C. Rubin Observatory Legacy Survey of Space and Time (LSST) will map sources in multiband colour--variability space. We present a prototype coherence-based framework for astrobiology and technosignature searches, in which candidates are treated as structured departures from natural astrophysical manifolds rather than isolated photometric outliers. We illustrate the framework with three simulated cases: five Kuiper Belt Object (KBO) surface/activity states, a grid of 649 synthetic exoplanet spectra with vegetation-red-edge-like (VRE) perturbations, and 500 synthetic multiband light curves, each projected into LSST-like observable space and analysed through colour geometry, chromatic variability, and cross-band coherence. Key results include a full-colour Mahalanobis distance $D\approx5.1$ for the weak-coma KBO state (${\sim}5σ$ in the five-dimensional colour vector), an indicative VRE coherence threshold at $f_{\rm crit}\approx0.13$, and an idealised stacking forecast reaching $5σ$ under optimistic assumptions. We show, using a small Gaia~DR3 stellar sample, that stellar colour and photometric stability may inform the prioritisation of Galactic regions for applying such coherence diagnostics.

Kovačević, Andjelka B. [Belgrade U.] (ORCID:000000↗

Validation of the DESI DR2 Ly$α$ forest full-shape analysis

We present the validation of the Dark Energy Spectroscopic Instrument (DESI) Data Release 2 (DR2) Lyman-$α$ (Ly$α$) forest full-shape analysis. This analysis combines three-dimensional Ly$α$ forest auto-correlations and cross-correlations with quasars to extract information from both the baryon acoustic oscillation (BAO) feature and the broadband clustering signal, with primary emphasis on the Alcock-Paczynski (AP) measurement. Compared to the DESI DR1 analysis, the DR2 validation uses substantially larger and more realistic mock datasets, including CoLoRe 2LPT and AbacusSummit Ly$α$ forest simulations. The modeling framework is also improved through analytic marginalization over small scales ($<10$$h^{-1}$Mpc) and the impact of ultraviolet background fluctuations. The validation program was completed prior to unblinding and defines quantitative requirements for the cosmological parameters of interest, which are evaluated using hundreds of mock realizations. We further test the analysis through independent fits to the auto- and cross-correlations, multiple catalog splits, and a broad suite of analysis and modeling variations applied to both mocks and blinded observational data. We find that the BAO and AP parameters satisfy all validation requirements and remain stable across all tests. In contrast, mock studies reveal a significant bias in the inferred growth-rate parameter $fσ_8$, leading us to exclude this measurement from the final analysis. The consistency across mocks, data splits, and robustness tests demonstrates that the DR2 Ly$α$ full-shape analysis provides a reliable and substantially improved broadband AP measurement over previous Ly$α$ forest studies.

Herbold, M. [Chicago U., KICP; Ohio State U.] (ORC↗

Description of FY25 Theory and Simulation Performance Target: Development of an integrated modeling framework for fusion reactor design and assessment

The urgency to deliver fusion power is growing now more than ever, with increasing pressure for both public programs and private companies to meet milestones timelines and overcome significant remaining technical challenges to ensure growth of a nascent fusion industry in time to meet rapidly growing clean energy demands. With incredible advancements in computation and years of investment in fusion model development and validation, integrated modeling is poised to fill a key role in accelerating the timeline to a fusion pilot plant (FPP). Future fusion pilot plants will operate in regimes far beyond current experience, and device design will rely on physics-based prediction and extrapolation. Many concepts will also rely on simulation to assess safety (shielding, tritium management, materials activation and lifetimes), economics and scalability before the decision to build. Importantly, integrated simulation can be used to reveal and solve the complexities of system integration that may otherwise not be apparent in physical components or models developed in isolation. New experimental test facilities that produce relevant conditions to validate and resolve key technical challenges for various subsystems (materials, blankets, fuel cycle, etc.) have been repeatedly called for by the fusion community but are not yet realized. Integrated modeling has an important role in identifying realistic load conditions (thermal, electromagnetic, plasma, neutron and photon loads, etc.) and defining the components and experiments for these test facilities in order to ensure meaningful validation that sufficiently reduces modeling uncertainties and technical risk for the full integrated reactor. The Fusion REactor Design and Assessment (FREDA) SciDAC project is building a component-based integrated modeling framework & data structure to enable self-consistent, multi-fidelity, iterative optimization workflows for the fusion reactor design process. FREDA aims to shorten the time to viable designs by providing a set of flexible workflows to support the various stages of the design process using an integrated model hierarchy, ranging from the simple analytic descriptions to the highest fidelity, theory-based plasma and engineering modeling developed by the fusion and fission communities. These tools are expected to be needed for timely support of FPP design in the milestone program and in the FIRE collaboratives. The plasma simulation backbone of FREDA is IPS-FASTRAN with newly developed coupled Core-Edge Pedestal-SOL (CESOL) workflows, which is being extended to the far-SOL region up to the plasma facing components. FREDA incorporates the FERMI engineering modeling suite and will enable self-consistent evaluation of the thermal shields, limiters, blanket, magnets, and other surrounding structures with predictions of temperatures, erosion, dpa, activation, tritium generation and transport, creep, corrosion, material degradation, etc. Parametric generation of 3D CAD enables rapid iteration of component geometry in response to plasma and loading specifications.

70 PLASMA PHYSICS AND FUSION TECHNOLOGY↗

Simulation-Based Validation of An Open-Source, Scalable Framework for Building Energy Management in Small and Medium-Sized Commercial Buildings

Abstract: Small and medium-sized commercial buildings (SMCBs) represent 94% of U.S. commercial buildings but encounter substantial obstacles in adopting Building Energy Management (BEM) systems. Current approaches exhibit fundamental limitations: vendor-specific API platforms restrict interoperability through proprietary ecosystems; commercial automation software demands extensive technical expertise and licensing costs; open-source IoT solutions lack native support for building automation protocols and semantic models. This paper introduces a configuration-driven web interface framework addressing the gap between smart device advancements and accessible BEM software infrastructure for SMCBs. The framework leverages VOLTTRON middleware integrated with an automated converter that processes unified YAML configurations into heterogeneous system files, reducing required configuration artifacts from six separate files to a single unified specification. The system architecture enables vendor-agnostic operation through BACnet and Modbus protocols while supporting semantic building model integration via automated Brick Schema parsing. Configuration-driven interfaces automatically adapt to diverse HVAC types without custom development. Simulation-based validation using BOPTEST demonstrates automatic interface generation between fan coil and hydronic systems, with the automated converter successfully generating all platform-specific outputs from the single YAML input. The result demonstrates the framework's capability to streamline BEM system deployment through reduced configuration complexity. This work bridges simulation capabilities with operational deployment, demonstrating how virtual testbeds validate generalizable software frameworks for real-world building automation.

Chung, Jihoon [ORNL] (ORCID:0000000184880815)↗

Extreme flood return levels in a U.S. mid-Atlantic estuary using 40-year fluvial-coastal model simulations

Using an integrated watershed-coastal modeling framework, we conducted long-term historical simulations (1980-2019) of fluvial and coastal flooding in the Delaware Bay and River, a vulnerable estuarine system in the U.S., at high spatial resolutions. By applying process-based models, we generated physically consistent and spatially detailed estimates of estuarine, riverine, and surge-driven extreme water level compared to previous studies that used field data only. We then evaluated changes in the magnitude of flood events using the 40-year simulations and detrended Floodwater Depth values with stationary extreme value analysis. Our detailed assessment of spatial-varying extreme values revealed how different flood-generation mechanisms can dominate various zones in the estuary. The datasets produced through this work will be valuable for long-term flood hazard mitigation planning in coastal communities in the Delaware Bay and River region. Additionally, this work will serve as a benchmark for other coastal flood hazard modeling communities worldwide, aiding them in systematically modeling long-term and continuous extreme flood events.

Coastal and Riverine Flooding↗