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Search indexed NASA NTRS and DOE OSTI research on propulsion, heat transfer, battery materials and energy systems. Follow report and document links to the original sources.

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At least 325 records · Page 18
All sourcesNASA NTRSDOE OSTI
DOE OSTI2022

Solar Irradiance Ramp Forecasting Based on All-Sky Imagers

Solar forecasting constitutes a critical tool for operating, producing and storing generated power from solar farms. In the framework of the International Energy Agency’s Photovoltaic Power Systems Program Task 16, the solar irradiance nowcast algorithms, based on five all-sky imagers (ASIs), are used to investigate the feasibility of ASIs to foresee ramp events. ASIs 1–2 and ASIs 3–5 can capture the true ramp events by 26.0–51.0% and 49.0–92.0% of the cases, respectively. ASIs 1–2 provided the lowest (<10.0%) falsely documented ramp events while ASIs 3–5 recorded false ramp events up to 85.0%. On the other hand, ASIs 3–5 revealed the lowest falsely documented no ramp events (8.0–51.0%). ASIs 1–2 are developed to provide spatial solar irradiance forecasts and have been delimited only to a small area for the purposes of this benchmark, which penalizes these approaches. These findings show that ASI-based nowcasts could be considered as a valuable tool for predicting solar irradiance ramp events for a variety of solar energy technologies. The combination of physical and deep learning-based methods is identified as a potential approach to further improve the ramp event forecasts.

14 SOLAR ENERGY↗
DOE OSTI2025

The Dark Energy Bedrock All-sky Supernova Program: Cross Calibration, Simulations, and Cosmology Forecasts

Type Ia supernovae (SNe Ia) have been essential for probing the nature of dark energy; however, most SN analyses rely on the same low-redshift sample, which may lead to shared systematics. In a companion paper, we introduce the Dark Energy Bedrock All-Sky Supernova (DEBASS) program, which has already collected more than 500 low-redshift SNe Ia on the Dark Energy Camera, and present an initial release of 77 SNe Ia within the Dark Energy Survey (DES) footprint observed between 2021 and 2024. Here, we examine the systematics, including photometric calibration and selection effects. We find agreement at the 10 mmag level among the tertiary standard stars of DEBASS, DES, and Pan-STARRS1. Our simulations reproduce the observed distributions of DEBASS SN light-curve properties, and we measure a bias-corrected Hubble residual scatter of 0.08 mag, which, while small, is found in 10% of our simulations. We compare the DEBASS SN distances to the Foundation sample and find consistency with a median residual offset of 0.016 ± 0.019 mag. Selection effects have negligible impacts on distances, but a different photometric calibration solution shifts the median residual −0.015 ± 0.019 mag, highlighting calibration sensitivity. Using conservative simulations, we forecast that replacing historical low-redshift samples with the full DEBASS sample will improve the statistical uncertainties on dark energy parameters w 0 and w a by 30% and 24%, respectively, enhance the dark energy Figure of Merit by up to 60%, and enable a measurement of fσ 8 at the 25% level.

Acevedo, Maria [Duke Univ., Durham, NC (United Sta↗
NASA NTRS2000

Large-scale visualization of digital sky surveys

Designed and developed within JPL/Caltech's supercomputing and visualization environment, the virtual observatory software described in this paper permits high performance visualization and analysis of large sky images and catalogs.

sky survey↗
NASA NTRS1997

The 1997 Reference of Diffuse Night Sky Brightness

In the following we present material in tabular and graphical form, with the aim to allow the non specialist to obtain a realistic estimate of the diffuse night sky brightness over a wide range of wavelengths from the far UV longward of Ly to the far-infrared.

Night sky brightness airglow zodiacal light integr↗
NASA NTRS1996

(abstract) An All Sky Cirrus Confusion Noise Map for WIRE

The Wide Field Infrared Explorer (WIRE) is a Small Explorer (SMEX) satellite scheduled for launch in 1998 which will carry out a sky survey of at least 100 square degrees in the wavelength regions of 9-15(micro)m and 21-27(micro)m with spatial resolution of approximately 20 arcsec and sensitivity exceeding 0.6mJy. At this sensitivity level WIRE observations can be seriously affected by the confusion noise contribution from the infrared cirrus emission, so the WIRE survey must be planned with some knowledge of the expected level of cirrus confusion. Production of a cirrus confusion noise map with 0.5 degree resolution based on the spatial power spectral density of the cirrus emission in the IRAS ISSA data is in progess using the method described by Gauthier, et al. Spectrally resolved power spectra density data is obtained from the ISSA maps with a wavelet transform technique.

Wide Field Infrared Explorer WIRE infrared sky sur↗
NASA NTRS1998

Dwarfs Cooler Than M: The Definition of Spectral Type L Using Discoveries from the 2-Micron All-Sky Survey (2MASS)

Before the 2-Micron All-Sky Survey (2MASS) began, only six objects were known with spectral types later than M9.5 V. In the first 371 sq. deg. of actual 2MASS survey data, we have identified another twenty such objects spectroscopically confirmed using the Low Resolution Imaging Spectrograph (LRIS) at the W.M. Keck Observatory.

class T low mass brown dwarf stellar atmosphere 2-↗
NASA NTRS2014

Validation of the Two-Layer Model for Correcting Clear Sky Reflectance Near Clouds

A two-layer model was developed in our earlier studies to estimate the clear sky reflectance enhancement near clouds. This simple model accounts for the radiative interaction between boundary layer clouds and molecular layer above, the major contribution to the reflectance enhancement near clouds for short wavelengths. We use LES/SHDOM simulated 3D radiation fields to valid the two-layer model for reflectance enhancement at 0.47 micrometer. We find: (a) The simple model captures the viewing angle dependence of the reflectance enhancement near cloud, suggesting the physics of this model is correct; and (b) The magnitude of the 2-layer modeled enhancement agree reasonably well with the "truth" with some expected underestimation. We further extend our model to include cloud-surface interaction using the Poisson model for broken clouds. We found that including cloud-surface interaction improves the correction, though it can introduced some over corrections for large cloud albedo, large cloud optical depth, large cloud fraction, large cloud aspect ratio. This over correction can be reduced by excluding scenes (10 km x 10km) with large cloud fraction for which the Poisson model is not designed for. Further research is underway to account for the contribution of cloud-aerosol radiative interaction to the enhancement.

two-layer model↗
NASA NTRS2012

Commentary: Learning About the Sky Through Simulations

The Large Synoptic Survey Telescope (LSST) simulator being built by Andy Connolly and collaborators is an impressive undertaking and should make working with LSST in the beginning stages far more easy than it was initially with the Sloan Digital Sky Survey (SDSS). However, I would like to focus on an equally important problem that has not yet been discussed here, but in the coming years the community will need to address-can we deal with the flood of data from LSST and will we need to rethink the way we work?

Simulators↗
DOE OSTI2020

Integration of Total-Sky Imager Data with a Physics-Based Smart Persistence Model for Intra-Hour Forecasting of Solar Radiation

Short-term solar forecasting models based solely on global horizontal irradiance (GHI) measurements are often unable to discriminate the forecasting of the factors affecting GHI from those that can be precisely computed by atmospheric models. Our previous study introduced a Physics-based Smart Persistence model for Intra-hour forecasting of solar radiation (PSPI) that decomposed the forecasting of GHI into the computation of extraterrestrial solar radiation and solar zenith angle and the forecasting of cloud albedo and cloud fraction. The extraterrestrial solar radiation and solar zenith angle were accurately computed by the Solar Position Algorithm (SPA) developed at the National Renewable Energy Laboratory (NREL). A cloud retrieval technique was used to estimate cloud albedo and cloud fraction from surface-based observations of GHI. With the assumption of persistent cloud structures, the cloud albedo and cloud fraction were predicted for future time steps using a two-stream approximation and a 5-minute exponential weighted moving average, respectively. The model evaluation indicated the estimation and forecast of cloud fraction mostly contributed to the uncertainty of the PSPI though it overcame the persistence and smart persistence models in all forecast time horizons between 5 and 60 minutes. This study aims to enhance the PSPI by ingesting surface-based observations of cloud fraction from a total sky imager (TSI). The estimation and forecast of cloud albedo is correspondingly improved by utilizing the cloud fraction observations and thus leads to more accurate GHI forecast. Various time-series analysis methods are also investigated on the forecasting of cloud fraction and cloud albedo for further improving the GHI forecast. These improvements are valuable for many applications, such as forecasting energy use for buildings, grid operations, and ultimately bringing down the cost of solar energy.

14 SOLAR ENERGY↗
DOE OSTI2020

Probabilistic Forecast of All-Sky Solar Radiation Using Enhanced WRF-Solar: Preprint

This study presents enhancements of the Weather Research and Forecasting model with solar extensions (WRF-Solar) to provide probabilistic forecasts of solar radiation. Our approach builds ensemble WRF-Solar runs by introducing stochastic perturbations of variables that produce the largest uncertainties in predicting surface irradiance and clouds. The key variables are identified using tangent linear sensitivity analysis of six physics packages responsible for all-sky irradiance variability. An optimal strategy to stochastically perturb the selected variables is developed and applied to WRF-Solar to generate ensemble members for day-ahead solar prediction. The National Solar Radiation Database (NSRDB) is used to validate the ensemble forecast at arbitrary locations on the model grid. Preliminary results indicate that the proposed technique can potentially produce WRF-Solar ensembles providing reliable information of solar prediction uncertainty. This study describes the implemented methodology and initial results as well as future research to improve ensemble-based probabilistic forecasts with WRF-Solar.

all-sky↗
DOE OSTI2021

First Simultaneous Observation of STEVE and SAR Arc Combining Data From Citizen Scientists, 630.0 nm All‐Sky Images, and Satellites

Abstract On September 28, 2017 citizen scientist observations at Alberta, Canada (51°N, 113° W) detected aurora and a thin east‐west purplish arc, known as strong thermal emission velocity enhancement (STEVE) that lasted less than 20 min. All‐sky imagers at subauroral latitudes measured stable auroral red (SAR) arcs during the entire night. The imager at Bridger, MT (45.3°N, 108.9°W) also measured a STEVE. The overlapping geometry allowed to determine that the height of STEVE was 225–275 km. STEVE is brighter in the 630.0 nm images in the West and almost merges with the SAR arc in the East. A DMSP satellite pass in the southern hemisphere was at the conjugate location of the Bridger imager during the STEVE observation. When mapped into the northern hemisphere intense subauroral ion drift and subauroral polarization streams were detected associated with the two optical signatures measured in 630.0 nm.

Martinis, C.↗