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Search indexed NASA NTRS and DOE OSTI research on propulsion, heat transfer, battery materials and energy systems. Follow report and document links to the original sources.

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All sourcesNASA NTRSDOE OSTI
DOE OSTI2024

Nowcasting Earthquakes With Stochastic Simulations: Information Entropy of Earthquake Catalogs

Earthquake nowcasting has been proposed as a means of tracking the change in large earthquake potential in a seismically active area. The method was developed using observable seismic data, in which probabilities of future large earthquakes can be computed using Receiver Operating Characteristic methods. Furthermore, analysis of the Shannon information content of the earthquake catalogs has been used to show that there is information contained in the catalogs, and that it can vary in time. So an important question remains, where does the information originate? In this paper, we examine this question using stochastic simulations of earthquake catalogs. Our catalog simulations are computed using an Earthquake Rescaled Aftershock Seismicity (“ERAS”) stochastic model. This model is similar in many ways to other stochastic seismicity simulations, but has the advantage that the model has only 2 free parameters to be set, one for the aftershock (Omori-Utsu) time decay, and one for the aftershock spatial migration away from the epicenter. Generating a simulation catalog and fitting the two parameters to the observed catalog such as California takes only a few minutes of wall clock time. While clustering can arise from random, Poisson statistics, we show that significant information in the simulation catalogs arises from the “non-Poisson” power-law aftershock clustering, implying that the practice of de-clustering observed catalogs may remove information that would otherwise be useful in forecasting and nowcasting. We also show that the nowcasting method provides similar results with the ERAS model as it does with observed seismicity.

58 GEOSCIENCES↗
NASA NTRS1987

Effects of thermospheric motions on the polar wind - A time-dependent numerical study

This paper presents the results of a numerical study investigating the effects of low-altitude short-duration plasma heating episodes (such as horizontal frictional heating) on transient heavy ion outflows from the polar ionosphere using a time-dependent model. In a previous set of calculations, where the effects of high-altitude transient heat sources were investigated, the low-altitude neutral atmosphere (z less than 800 km) acted as a very efficient heat sink, absorbing most of the energy conducted to this region and thus preventing large differences between the ion and neutral temperatures. One purpose of the present study was to investigate whether realistic, specified low-altitude frictional heating rates, based on published experimental data, can result in elevated ion temperatures and lift a part of the heavy ion population over the gravitational barrier before the extra energy is lost to the neutral atmosphere. In these model calculations the specified heating generated an upflowing O(+) disturbance (with a normalized peak flux of about 100 million/sq cm per sec) moving upward along the open magnetic field line with a velocity of about 2 km/s. The spatial extent of the disturbance was approximately equal to the disturbance velocity times the duration of the heat source. The model results provide a possible mechanism to explain recent European Incoherent Scatter observations of high-latitude O(+) upwellings.

Gombosi, T. I.↗
DOE OSTI2026

AMAROK: A Radio Frequency Development Platform for High-Power, Full-Scale Positive Ion Sources for DIII-D Neutral Beam Injectors

Next-generation neutral beam injection (NBI) systems demand RF ion sources capable of efficiently coupling >120 kW at 2–4-MHz frequencies, yet existing designs face voltage standoff and impedance-matching challenges. To address this, the advanced multicoil antenna for RF operations at kilowatts (AMAROK) was developed as a high-power RF inductively coupled plasma (ICP) source delivering up to 200 kW in the 2–4-MHz range via four phase-controlled generators for flexible power sharing. Two antenna designs—a single-strap multiturn (MT) and a multistrap single-turn (ST) design—were evaluated to optimize resonance, impedance matching, and power coupling across plasma loads. Here, a semi-analytical self-resonant frequency (SRF) model, validated experimentally, predicts resonance trends for arbitrary turn counts and tubing diameters, enabling rapid antenna optimization. Strap-to-strap mutual inductance in the ST configuration showed strong spatial dependence, guiding generator operation and total load inductance. These insights informed a custom π -topology matching network, achieving stable impedance matching over a wide range of plasma-driven loads. Collectively, these results position AMAROK as a versatile testbed for advancing high-power RF source technology in fusion NBI applications.

DIII-D↗
DOE OSTI2022

The Latent Dirichlet Allocation model applied to airborne LiDAR data: A case study on mapping forest degradation associated with fragmentation and fire in the Amazon region

1. LiDAR data are being increasingly used to provide a detailed characterization of the vertical profile of forests. This characterization enables the generation of new insights on the influence of environmental drivers and anthropogenic disturbances on forest structure as well as on how forest structure influences important ecosystem functions and services. Unfortunately, extracting information from LiDAR data in a way that enables the spatial visualization of forest structure, as well as its temporal changes, is challenging due to the high dimensionality of these data. 2. In this study, we show how the Latent Dirichlet Allocation model applied to LiDAR data (LidarLDA) can be used to identify forest structural types and how the relative abundance of these forest types changes throughout the landscape. The code to fit this model is made available through the open-source r package LidarLDA in github. We illustrate the use of LidarLDA both with simulated data and data from a large-scale fire experiment in the Brazilian Amazon region. 3. Using simulated data, we demonstrate that LidarLDA accurately identifies the number of forest types as well as their spatial distribution and absorptance probabilities. For the empirical data, we found that LidarLDA detects both landscape-level patterns in forest structure as well as the strong interacting effect of fire and forest fragmentation on forest structure based on the experimental fire plots. More specifically, LidarLDA reveals that proximity to forest edge exacerbates the impact of fires, and that burned forests remain structurally different from unburned areas for at least 7 years, even when burned only once. Importantly, LidarLDA generates insights on the 3D structure of forest that cannot be obtained using more standard approaches that just focus on top-of-the-canopy information (e.g. canopy height models based on LiDAR data). 4. By enabling the mapping of forest structure and its temporal changes, we believe that LidarLDA will be of broad utility to the ecological research community.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2025

Multiscale Modeling Framework for Lithium Nucleation in 3D Porous Carbon Anodes

Porous carbon scaffolds offer a promising route for mitigating non-uniform lithium (Li) plating to enhance the safety and longevity of Li metal batteries. However, the influence of microstructural morphology on Li nucleation is not well understood. Here, we present a multiscale modeling framework to investigate how the porous microstructure of carbon materials affects Li nucleation behavior. Ab initio molecular dynamics simulations quantify the nucleation energy barriers of Li on graphene as a function of Li content, surface curvature, and applied potential, providing key parameters for a classical nucleation theory (CNT) model. From macroscale half-cell simulations, we obtained Li concentration and electrical potential profiles to define boundary conditions for mesoscopic simulations. At the mesoscale, three distinct synthetic 3D microstructures with different porosities and characteristic feature sizes are generated to resolve local distributions of Li flux, current density, and mechanical stress. These outputs are integrated into the CNT model to map spatial variation in nucleation rates. Our findings reveal trade-offs between suppressing nucleation rates and achieving spatial uniformity, offering design guidelines for optimizing porous carbon anodes to balance nucleation control and mechanical integrity.

Materials science↗
NASA NTRS1993

Similarity and scale in catchment storm response

Until recently, very little progress had been made in understanding the relationship between small-scale variability of topography, soil, and rainfalls and the storm response seen at the catchment scale. The work reviewed here represents the first attempt at a systematic theoretical framework for such understanding in the context of surface runoff generation by different processes. The parameterization of hydrological processes over a range of scales is examined, and the concept of the 'representative elementary area' (REA) is introduced. The REA is a fundamental scale for catchment modeling at which continuum assumptions can be applied for the spatially variable controls and parameters, and spatial patterns no longer have to be considered explicitly. The investigation of scale leads into the concept of hydrologic similarity in which the effects of the environmental controls on runoff generation and flood frequency response be investigated independently of catchment scale. The paper reviews the authors' initial results and hopefully will motivate others to also investigate the issues of hydrologic scale and similarity.

Wood, Eric F.↗
DOE OSTI2026

Multiscale and multidimensional modeling of particle acceleration and transport in solar flares

Multi-messenger, multi-viewpoint, and time-resolved observations of solar flares are now providing unprecedented constraints on particle acceleration sites, energy conversion, and energy transport. The interpretation of current observations, including microwave imaging spectroscopy from EOVSA, hard x-ray (HXR) imaging from Solar Orbiter/STIX, gamma-ray diagnostics from Fermi, and in situ measurements from Parker Solar Probe and Solar Orbiter, collectively demands modeling frameworks that go beyond traditional spatially unresolved, one-zone models or single-mechanism descriptions. This review surveys multiscale and multidimensional modeling approaches, including kinetic, magnetohydrodynamic (MHD), and macroscopic particle models, that are being developed to meet the need. Kinetic simulations reveal that three-dimensional (3D) effects, including field-line chaos and self-generated turbulence, are essential for sustained power-law particle acceleration. MHD simulations now capture flux-rope eruptions, plasmoid-unstable current sheets, and turbulent flare regions in realistic magnetic topologies. Macroscopic models coupling MHD with energetic-particle models produce spatially resolved electron distributions and synthetic HXR and microwave emissions for direct comparison with observations. Despite these advances, outstanding challenges remain in bridging kinetic and global scales, improving MHD simulations and macroscopic particle models, and achieving quantitative model-observation closure.

70 PLASMA PHYSICS AND FUSION TECHNOLOGY↗
DOE OSTI2023

Impact of longitudinal phase-matching variations on three-wave nonlinear interactions

A general study of three-wave nonlinear mixing in the presence of longitudinal variations in phase-matching conditions is presented. The efficiency of second-harmonic generation and optical parametric amplification is quantified using a normalized set of equations and a polynomial description of the wave-vector mismatch as a function of the longitudinal coordinate. These modeling results are used to estimate the impact of spatial variations in wave-vector mismatch experimentally obtained for five partially deuterated potassium dihydrogen phosphate crystals. The longitudinal inhomogeneities in the properties of crystals of similar quality are not expected to have a significant impact on their use for second-harmonic generation and optical parametric amplification, but the efficiency of nonlinear processes in crystals with larger variations could decrease.

36 MATERIALS SCIENCE↗
NASA NTRSDate not supplied

Visualizing UPSP Data with Python

The Unsteady Pressure-Sensitive Paint (uPSP) projects uses Pressure-Sensitive paint applied over aerospace models during wind tunnel testing to collect pressure data with high spatial and temporal resolution in order to inform unsteady aerodynamics studies. For each of the 800+ experimental runs, four cameras generate up to 50 GB of video data, which must then be processed, analyzed, and visualized on the NASA Advanced Supercomputing system (NAS) to assess the result. One of the final data analysis products is the dynamic modal decomposition (DMD) results, which decomposes the pressure reading signals by their frequency component. The goal of this project is to visualize the DMD results over a 3D rendering of the model, using efficient and parallelized python routines. The software uses the pytecplot library, a high-level API that connects python scripting to a Tecplot 360 engine. Tecplot is an industry standard high-performance visualization tool that can handle large datasets and workflow. Various animation, rendering, and image-combination techniques were investigated to generate the final videos using OpenCV on the NAS. The final result is a software tool that takes in data products from the uPSP processing chain and generates high resolution visualization videos in parallel for every data file, allowing researchers to view their results efficiently and at an unprecedentedly detailed level.

Emma Dolores McMillian↗
DOE OSTI2021

The Role of Radiative Interactions in Tropical Cyclone Development under Realistic Boundary Conditions

Abstract The impact of radiative interactions on tropical cyclone (TC) climatology is investigated using a global, TC-permitting general circulation model (GCM) with realistic boundary conditions. In this model, synoptic-scale radiative interactions are suppressed by overwriting the model-generated atmospheric radiative cooling rates with their monthly varying climatological values. When radiative interactions are suppressed, the global TC frequency is significantly reduced, indicating that radiative interactions are a critical component of TC development even in the presence of spatially varying boundary conditions. The reduced TC activity is primarily due to a decrease in the frequency of pre-TC synoptic disturbances (“seeds”), whereas the likelihood that the seeds undergo cyclogenesis is less affected. When radiative interactions are suppressed, TC genesis shifts toward coastal regions, whereas TC lysis locations stay almost unchanged; together the distance between genesis and lysis is shortened, reducing TC duration. In a warmer climate, the magnitude of TC reduction from suppressing radiative interactions is diminished due to the larger contribution from latent heat release with increased sea surface temperatures. These results highlight the importance of radiative interactions in modulating the frequency and duration of TCs.

Meteorology & Atmospheric Sciences↗
NASA NTRS1990

A model for the distribution of material generating the soft X-ray background

The observational evidence relating to the soft X-ray diffuse background is discussed, and a simple model for its source and spatial structure is presented. In this simple model with one free parameter, the observed 1/4 keV X-ray intensity originates as thermal emission from a uniform hot plasma filling a cavity in the neutral material of the Galactic disk which contains the sun. Variations in the observed X-ray intensity are due to variations in the extent of the emission volume and therefore the emission measure of the plasma. The model reproduces the observed negative correlation between X-ray intensity and H I column density and predicts reasonable values for interstellar medium parameters.

Snowden, S. L.↗
NASA NTRS2002

A Stochastic Model of Space-Time Variability of Tropical Rainfall: I. Statistics of Spatial Averages

Global maps of rainfall are of great importance in connection with modeling of the earth s climate. Comparison between the maps of rainfall predicted by computer-generated climate models with observation provides a sensitive test for these models. To make such a comparison, one typically needs the total precipitation amount over a large area, which could be hundreds of kilometers in size over extended periods of time of order days or months. This presents a difficult problem since rain varies greatly from place to place as well as in time. Remote sensing methods using ground radar or satellites detect rain over a large area by essentially taking a series of snapshots at infrequent intervals and indirectly deriving the average rain intensity within a collection of pixels , usually several kilometers in size. They measure area average of rain at a particular instant. Rain gauges, on the other hand, record rain accumulation continuously in time but only over a very small area tens of centimeters across, say, the size of a dinner plate. They measure only a time average at a single location. In making use of either method one needs to fill in the gaps in the observation - either the gaps in the area covered or the gaps in time of observation. This involves using statistical models to obtain information about the rain that is missed from what is actually detected. This paper investigates such a statistical model and validates it with rain data collected over the tropical Western Pacific from ship borne radars during TOGA COARE (Tropical Oceans Global Atmosphere Coupled Ocean-Atmosphere Response Experiment). The model incorporates a number of commonly observed features of rain. While rain varies rapidly with location and time, the variability diminishes when averaged over larger areas or longer periods of time. Moreover, rain is patchy in nature - at any instant on the average only a certain fraction of the observed pixels contain rain. The fraction of area covered by rain decreases, as the size of a pixel becomes smaller. This means that within what looks like a patch of rainy area in a coarse resolution view with larger pixel size, one finds clusters of rainy and dry patches when viewed on a finer scale. The model makes definite predictions about how these and other related statistics depend on the pixel size. These predictions were found to agree well with data. In a subsequent second part of the work we plan to test the model with rain gauge data collected during the TRMM (Tropical Rainfall Measuring Mission) ground validation campaign.

Kundu, Prasun K.↗
NASA NTRS2011

Gas Generator Feedline Orifice Sizing Methodology: Effects of Unsteadiness and Non-Axisymmetric Flow

Engine LH2 and LO2 gas generator feed assemblies were modeled with computational fluid dynamics (CFD) methods at 100% rated power level, using on-center square- and round-edge orifices. The purpose of the orifices is to regulate the flow of fuel and oxidizer to the gas generator, enabling optimal power supply to the turbine and pump assemblies. The unsteady Reynolds-Averaged Navier-Stokes equations were solved on unstructured grids at second-order spatial and temporal accuracy. The LO2 model was validated against published experimental data and semi-empirical relationships for thin-plate orifices over a range of Reynolds numbers. Predictions for the LO2 square- and round-edge orifices precisely match experiment and semi-empirical formulas, despite complex feedline geometry whereby a portion of the flow from the engine main feedlines travels at a right-angle through a smaller-diameter pipe containing the orifice. Predictions for LH2 square- and round-edge orifice designs match experiment and semi-empirical formulas to varying degrees depending on the semi-empirical formula being evaluated. LO2 mass flow rate through the square-edge orifice is predicted to be 25 percent less than the flow rate budgeted in the original engine balance, which was subsequently modified. LH2 mass flow rate through the square-edge orifice is predicted to be 5 percent greater than the flow rate budgeted in the engine balance. Since CFD predictions for LO2 and LH2 square-edge orifice pressure loss coefficients, K, both agree with published data, the equation for K has been used to define a procedure for orifice sizing.

Rothermel, Jeffry↗
NASA NTRS2020

Delineation of vulnerable areas to water erosion in a mountain region using SDR-InVEST model: A case study of the Ourika watershed, Morocco

The Ourika watershed is characterized by higher than average flood flows, a rugged topography, a sparse vegetation cover and a friable substrate that makes it vulnerable to soil erosion. Soil is an important non-renewable asset capital, providing several ecosystem services that sustain life through physical and biological regulation processes. The loss, or otherwise, redistribution of biota by soil erosion in the Ourika watershed has received little attention and thus constitutes a key knowledge gap that needs to be addressed. This study quantifies the level of erosion and maps its spatial distribution in the watershed using the Sediment Delivery Ratio (SDR) of the Integrated Valuation of Ecosystem Services and Tradeoffs model (InVEST3.6.0). The SDR maps the overland sediment generation and delivery to the stream at the watershed level using rainfall, soil properties, topography, cover management and cropping practices as predefined set of input variables. Recommended internal model calibration was used and results were compared to similar studies carried out in different parts of Morocco for validation. The results reveal that 93% of the watershed is subject to a strong rainfall aggressiveness greater than 50 MJ mm ha–1 h–1 yr1 under an average rainfall intensity of 541 mm/year, rainfall capacity to initiate the detachment and transport of soil particles by runoff, and only 11.5% of the watershed area is protected with vegetative cover. We find that overall, the Ourika watershed is losing its soil to erosion at an alarming average rate of 258.48 ton.ha–1.yr–1, a rate well above the tolerable threshold of 7ton.ha–1.yr–1. The spatial distribution of this loss shows areas that need to be urgently remedied. The primary factors for soil erosion in the Ourika watershed appear to be related to the aggressive nature of local rainfall and the inherent susceptibility of soils, which can be costly to this cash-crop region. Because rainfall intensity, soil properties, and topography are intrinsic characteristics of the watershed, we suggest that seasonally adapted cropping rotations that maintains conservative practices with a high cover management may reduce soil erosion in the Ourika watershed.

Erosion↗
NASA NTRS1987

A space-time stochastic model of rainfall for satellite remote-sensing studies

A model of the spatial and temporal distribution of rainfall is described that produces random spatial rainfall patterns with these characteristics: (1) the model is defined on a grid with each grid point representing the average rain rate over the surrounding grid box, (2) rain occurs at any one grid point, on average, a specified percentage of the time and has a lognormal probability distribution, (3) spatial correlation of the rainfall can be arbitrarily prescribed, and (4) time stepping is carried out so that large-scale features persist longer than small-scale features. Rain is generated in the model from the portion of a correlated Gaussian random field that exceeds a threshold. The portion of the field above the threshold is rescaled to have a lognormal probability distribution. Sample output of the model designed to mimic radar observations of rainfall during the Global Atmospheric Research Program Atlantic Tropical Experiment (GATE), is shown. The model is intended for use in evaluating sampling strategies for satellite remote-sensing of rainfall and for development of algorithms for converting radiant intensity received by an instrument from its field of view into rainfall amount.

Bell, Thomas L.↗
DOE OSTI2023

Climate and air pollution impacts of generating biopower from forest management residues in California

California faces crisis conditions on its forested landscapes. A century of aggressive logging and fire suppression in combination with conditions exacerbated by climate change have created an ongoing ecological, economic, and public health emergency. Between commercial harvests on California’s working forestlands and the increasing number of acres the state treats each year for fire risk reduction and carbon sequestration, California forests generate millions of tons of woody residues annually—residues that are typically left or burned in the field. State policymakers have turned to biomass electricity generation as a key market for woody biomass in the hope that it can support sustainable forest management activities while also providing low-carbon renewable electricity. However, open questions surrounding the climate and air pollution performance of electricity generation from woody biomass have made it difficult to determine how best to manage the risks and opportunities posed by forest residues. The California Biomass Residue Emissions Characterization (C-BREC) model offers a spatially-explicit life cycle assessment framework to rigorously and transparently establish the climate and air pollution impacts of biopower from forest residues in California under current conditions. The C-BREC model characterizes the variable emissions from different biomass supply chains as well as the counterfactual emissions from prescribed burn, wildfire, and decay avoided by residue mobilization. We find that the life cycle ‘carbon footprint’ of biopower from woody residues generated by recent forest treatments in California ranges widely—from comparable with solar photovoltaic on the low end to comparable with natural gas on the high end. This variation stems largely from the heterogeneity in the fire and decay conditions these residues would encounter if left in the field, with utilization of residue that would otherwise have been burned in place offering the best climate and air quality performance. California’s energy and forest management policies should account for this variation to ensure desired climate benefits are achieved.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2023

Wind Resource Data for Southeast Asia Using a Hybrid Numerical Weather Prediction with Machine Learning Super Resolution Approach

In this work we develop and present a machine learning based downscaling approach using generative adversarial networks (GANs). GANs learn to distinguish the relationships between low-resolution and high-resolution simulations and generate accurate high-resolution output from low-resolution input (Stengel, Glaws, Hettinger, & King, 2020). Low-resolution numerical weather prediction (NWP) simulations at 9-km spatial and 60-minute temporal resolution were executed over Southeast Asia to provide input to the GANs model. GANs for wind, temperature, and pressure were trained on coarsened WIND Toolkit data with a diverse sampling of terrain and meteorological conditions. After training, the NWP simulations over Southeast Asia were enhanced by 3x along each horizontal spatial dimension and 4x along the temporal dimension. This novel downscaling approach generated 15-year high-resolution wind, temperature, and pressure data from January 2007 through December 2021 at multiple hub heights over Southeast Asia at 3-km spatial and 15-minute temporal resolution with a 16x reduction in compute time over standard dynamical downscaling.

17 WIND ENERGY↗
DOE OSTI2024

A Stereo Camera Simulator for Large-Eddy Simulations of Continental Shallow Cumulus Clouds Based on Three-Dimensional Path-Tracing

The complex spatial and temporal structure of cumulus clouds complicates their representation in weather and climate models. Classic meteorological instrumentation struggles to fully capture these features. Networks of multiple high-resolution hemispheric cameras are increasingly used to fill this data gap, and provide information on this missing multi-dimensional spatial information. In this study, a path-tracing algorithm is used to generate virtual camera images of resolved clouds in large-eddy simulations (LES). These images are then used as a camera network simulator, allowing reconstructions of three-dimensional cloud edges from the model output. Because the actual LES cloud field is fully known, the combined path-tracing and reconstruction method can be statistically analyzed. The method is applied to LES realizations of summertime shallow cumulus at the Jülich Observatory for Cloud Evolution (JOYCE), Germany, which also routinely operates a camera network. We find that the path-tracing method allows accurate reconstruction of up to 70% of the visible cloud edges. Additional sensitivity tests show that the method is robust for changes in its hyperparameters. The sensitivity to cloud optical thickness is also investigated, finding a cloud boundary placement error of approximately 182 m. This error can be considered typical for cloud boundary reconstruction using real stereo camera imagery. The results provide proof of principle for future use of the method for evaluating LES clouds against camera network imagery, and for further optimizing the configuration of such camera networks.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗