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Search indexed NASA NTRS and DOE OSTI research on propulsion, heat transfer, battery materials and energy systems. Follow report and document links to the original sources.

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At least 325 records · Page 18
All sourcesNASA NTRSDOE OSTI
DOE OSTI2025

The DESI-Lensing Mock Challenge: large-scale cosmological analysis of 3x2-pt statistics

The current generation of large galaxy surveys will test the cosmological model by combining multiple types of observational probes. Realising the statistical promise of these new datasets requires rigorous attention to all aspects of analysis including cosmological measurements, modelling, covariance and parameter likelihood. In this paper we present the results of an end-to-end simulation study designed to test the analysis pipeline for the combination of the Dark Energy Spectroscopic Instrument (DESI) Year 1 galaxy redshift dataset and separate weak gravitational lensing information from the Kilo-Degree Survey, Dark Energy Survey and Hyper-Suprime-Cam Survey. Our analysis employs the 3x2-pt correlation functions including cosmic shear and galaxy-galaxy lensing, together with the projected correlation function of the spectroscopic DESI lenses. We build realistic simulations of these datasets including galaxy halo occupation distributions, photometric redshift errors, weights, multiplicative shear calibration biases and magnification. We calculate the analytical covariance of these correlation functions including the Gaussian, noise and super-sample contributions, and show that our covariance determination agrees with estimates based on the ensemble of simulations. We use a Bayesian inference platform to demonstrate that we can recover the fiducial cosmological parameters of the simulation within the statistical error margin of the experiment, investigating the sensitivity to scale cuts. This study is the first in a sequence of papers in which we present and validate the large-scale 3x2-pt cosmological analysis of DESI-Y1.

79 ASTRONOMY AND ASTROPHYSICS↗
DOE OSTI2024

Improved Statistical Analysis for the Neutrinoless Double-Beta Decay Matrix Element of 136Xe

Neutrinoless double beta decay nuclear matrix element (M0ν) for 136Xe was recently analyzed using a statistical approach (Phys. Rev. C 107, 045501 (2023)). In the analysis, three initial shell model effective Hamiltonians were randomly altered, and their results for 23 measured observables were used to infer credibility for the M0ν nuclear matrix element (NME) based on a Bayesian Model Averaging approach. In that analysis, a reasonable Gamow-Teller quenching factor of 0.7 was assumed for each starting effective Hamiltonian. Given that the result of the statistical analysis was sensible to this choice, we are here improving that analysis by assuming that the Gamow-Teller quenching factor is also randomly chosen within reasonabe limits for all three starting Hamiltonians. The outcomes are slightly higher expectation values and uncertainties for the M0ν NME.

Astronomy & Astrophysics↗
DOE OSTI2025

Changing-look Active Galactic Nuclei from the Dark Energy Spectroscopic Instrument. II. Statistical Properties from the First Data Release

We present the identification of changing-look active galactic nuclei (CL-AGNs) from the Dark Energy Spectroscopic Instrument First Data Release and Sloan Digital Sky Survey Data Release 16 at z ≤ 0.9. To confirm the CL-AGNs, we utilize spectral flux calibration assessment via an [O III ]-based calibration, pseudophotometry examination, and visual inspection. This rigorous selection process allows us to compile a statistical catalog of 561 CL-AGNs, encompassing 527 Hβ, 149 Hα, and 129 Mg II CL behaviors. In this sample, we find (1) a 283:278 ratio of turn-on to turn-off CL-AGNs. (2) The median Eddington ratio for CL-AGNs in the dim state is approximately λ Edd ∼ 0.01. (3) A strong correlation between the change in the luminosity of the broad emission lines (BELs) and variation in the continuum luminosity, with Mg II and Hβ displaying similar responses during CL phases. (4) The Baldwin–Phillips–Terlevich diagram for CL-AGNs shows no statistical difference from the general AGN catalog. (5) Five CL-AGNs are associated with asymmetrical mid-infrared flares, possibly linked to tidal disruption events. Given the large CL-AGN sample and the stochastic sampling of spectra, we propose that some CL phenomena are inherently due to typical AGN variability during low accretion rates, particularly for CL phenomenon only occurring on one BEL. Finally, we introduce a monotonically dimming CL phase for objects characterized by a gradual decline over decades in the light curve and the complete disappearance of entire BELs in faint spectra, indicative of a real transition in the accretion disk.

accretion↗
DOE OSTI2025

Changing-look Active Galactic Nuclei from the Dark Energy Spectroscopic Instrument. II. Statistical Properties from the First Data Release

We present the identification of changing-look active galactic nuclei (CL-AGNs) from the Dark Energy Spectroscopic Instrument First Data Release and Sloan Digital Sky Survey Data Release 16 at z≤ 0.9. To confirm the CL-AGNs, we utilize spectral flux calibration assessment via an [O iii]-based calibration, pseudophotometry examination, and visual inspection. This rigorous selection process allows us to compile a statistical catalog of 561 CL-AGNs, encompassing 527 Hβ, 149 Hα, and 129 Mg ii CL behaviors. In this sample, we find (1) a 283:278 ratio of turn-on to turn-off CL-AGNs. (2) The median Eddington ratio for CL-AGNs in the dim state is approximately λ$_{Edd}$ ∼ 0.01. (3) A strong correlation between the change in the luminosity of the broad emission lines (BELs) and variation in the continuum luminosity, with Mg ii and Hβ displaying similar responses during CL phases. (4) The Baldwin–Phillips–Terlevich diagram for CL-AGNs shows no statistical difference from the general AGN catalog. (5) Five CL-AGNs are associated with asymmetrical mid-infrared flares, possibly linked to tidal disruption events. Given the large CL-AGN sample and the stochastic sampling of spectra, we propose that some CL phenomena are inherently due to typical AGN variability during low accretion rates, particularly for CL phenomenon only occurring on one BEL. Finally, we introduce a monotonically dimming CL phase for objects characterized by a gradual decline over decades in the light curve and the complete disappearance of entire BELs in faint spectra, indicative of a real transition in the accretion disk.

79 ASTRONOMY AND ASTROPHYSICS↗
DOE OSTI2026

Statistical imprints of wave-like dark matter on multiply-imaged galaxies in strong cluster lenses from JWST

Wave-like dark matter ($ψ$DM) is an elusive dark matter (DM) candidate. The model, often also called fuzzy or ultralight DM, proposes that DM is an extremely light ($m\sim10^{-22}$ eV) boson and thereby has a kpc-scale de Broglie wavelength. Hence, interference of DM gives rise to sub-galactic density fluctuations that can be studied with strong gravitational lensing. In this paper, we use the residual power spectrum, $\mathrm{P}_δ(k)$, as a probe of $ψ$DM, which quantifies deviations from smooth lensing predictions, measured from multiply-imaged galaxies in strong cluster lenses. The key idea is that imprinted in these deviations are lensing distortions from DM substructure, which can be harnessed statistically to distinguish among DM theories. We simulate JWST-quality mock observations of strong gravitational lensing in galaxy clusters, modeling line-of-sight DM substructure within $ψ$DM and the standard cold dark matter (CDM) paradigms. Using mock deep observations ($\sim$ 20 hours), we find that $\mathrm{P}_δ(k)$ is sensitive to both $ψ$DM particle mass and fluctuation amplitude, and can distinguish $ψ$DM fluctuations from CDM subhalos. We demonstrate that $\mathrm{P}_δ(k)$ can be measured directly from data by modeling the smooth lensing with a local Curved Arc Basis formalism. With realistic modeling systematics, we find a statistically significant separation between $ψ$DM and CDM across $1 \lesssim k \lesssim 11\,\mathrm{kpc}^{-1}$ -- offering an independent probe of the wave-like nature of DM complementary to existing constraints.

Cosmology and Nongalactic Astrophysics (astro-ph.C↗
NASA NTRS1962

Application of Statistical Filter Theory to the Optimal Estimation of Position and Velocity on Board a Circumlunar Vehicle

Concepts from statistical filter theory are applied to the problem of in-flight determination of the position and velocity of a space vehicle for the purposes of midcourse guidance. The source of information is assumed to be an arbitrary sequence of measurements of any desired set of "observables" (e.g., space angles), the measurements being corrupted by additive errors so that the position and velocity are never known perfectly. A state transition approach is employed which leads naturally to a computational scheme that is readily implemented by a digital computer. The scheme can be regarded as a dynamical time-varying filter which weights the incoming observations in an optimal sense for use in producing an up-to-date optimal estimate of position and velocity. The advantages of the scheme are (1) it provides the best possible estimate (minimum error) based upon ensemble statistics of injection conditions and measurement errors; (2) it is extremely versatile, not requiring adherence to a predetermined observation schedule or reference trajectory; and (3) the computations are sufficiently simple to be practical in an on-board computer. A digital computer simulation of the proposed system is employed to demonstrate the feasibility of an all on-board system and to illustrate the performance attainable in a hypothetical physical situation.

SPACE VEHICLE↗
NASA NTRS1968

The X square statistic and goodness of fit test

The X square statistic is a useful measure of the discrepancy between the actual distribution of a set of data points and the theoretical distribution of a random variable of which the data points supposedly are values. Thus the X square statistic is frequently used in goodness of fit tests.

Argentiero, P. D.↗
NASA NTRS1972

Detection of nonlinear transfer functions by the use of Gaussian statistics

The possibility of using on-line signal statistics to detect electronic equipment nonlinearities is discussed. The results of an investigation using Gaussian statistics are presented, and a nonlinearity test that uses ratios of the moments of a Gaussian random variable is developed and discussed. An outline for further investigation is presented.

Sheppard, J. G.↗
NASA NTRS1972

Study of statistical coding for digital TV

The results are presented for a detailed study to determine a pseudo-optimum statistical code to be installed in a digital TV demonstration test set. Studies of source encoding were undertaken, using redundancy removal techniques in which the picture is reproduced within a preset tolerance. A method of source encoding, which preliminary studies show to be encouraging, is statistical encoding. A pseudo-optimum code was defined and the associated performance of the code was determined. The format was fixed at 525 lines per frame, 30 frames per second, as per commercial standards.

Gardenhire, L. W.↗
NASA NTRS1971

Statistical analysis of the modal properties of large structural systems.

A theory is developed to predict eigenvalue and eigenvector uncertainty in large dynamic models. The uncertainty is based on physical property uncertainty and should not be confused with numerical roundoff, although the method can be extended to include the latter. The theory, when implemented on a computer, is used to analyze the uncertainties in frequencies and mode shapes based on uncertainties in mass, stiffness, modulus of elasticity, etc. The method incorporates a linear statistical model which is quite adequate for handling property uncertainties of 10% or more. The model is not limited to small systems but uses certain statistical assumptions as well as selective matrix manipulations to keep the size of all matrix operations to within the number of degrees of freedom of the system. Examples are given for two longitudinal vibration problems, and the results are supported by a Monte Carlo analysis.

Collins, J. D.↗
NASA NTRS1972

Statistical distribution of spacecraft maximum structural response.

Under nonstationary random excitations resulting from booster engine shutdown, a direct statistical analysis of spacecraft maximum response is performed, and the spacecraft structural reliability is obtained. It is found that the Gumbel (1958) Type I asymptotic distribution of maximum values provides a reasonably good statistical model for spacecraft maximum responses. This approach makes it possible to perform the reliability-based optimum design of spacecraft structures.

Yang, J.-N.↗
NASA NTRS1972

On the application of Rice's exceedance statistics to atmospheric turbulence.

Discrepancies produced by the application of Rice's exceedance statistics to atmospheric turbulence are examined. First- and second-order densities from several data sources have been measured for this purpose. Particular care was paid to each selection of turbulence that provides stationary mean and variance over the entire segment. Results show that even for a stationary segment of turbulence, the process is still highly non-Gaussian, in spite of a Gaussian appearance for its first-order distribution. Data also indicate strongly non-Gaussian second-order distributions. It is therefore concluded that even stationary atmospheric turbulence with a normal first-order distribution cannot be considered a Gaussian process, and consequently the application of Rice's exceedance statistics should be approached with caution.

Chen, W. Y.↗
NASA NTRS1972

Recent developments in global cloud statistics.

The cloud-type and cloud-layer statistics were stratified by cloud climatological regime, month, and time of day at the three hourly intervals beginning with 01 LST. Use was made of the format previously adopted for the derivation of cloud cover statistics by Sherr et al. (1968) and Greaves et al. (1971). With the new data, it is now possible to provide realistic simulations of the four-dimensional aspects of the cloud field. Furthermore, by the addition of models of the microphysical properties of each of the major cloud types, such as those developed by Gaut and Reifenstein (1969), it will be possible to extend the cloud simulation to the specification of the vertical distributions of such intensive parameters as drop size distribution and liquid water content.

Chang, D. T.↗
NASA NTRS1972

Statistics of the radiation from astronomical masers.

The results of an experimental determination of the statistical properties of radiation from OH maser sources are reported and interpreted. The radiation is found to have Gaussian statistics with no deviations greater than 1%.

Evans, N. J., II↗
NASA NTRS1972

Statistical retrieval techniques for sounding the meteorological structure of the atmosphere

Statistical retrieval methods for remote sounding are reviewed. Methods are given for constraining an essentially incomplete problem by means of the known statistical behavior of the solution. Information content of the observations and the meteorological structure are discussed. Linear versions of maximum probability and minimum variance methods are given in some detail, and extensions to the nonlinear case are described.

Rodgers, C. D.↗
NASA NTRS1972

Statistical versus nonstatistical temperature inversion methods

Vertical temperature profiles are derived from radiation measurements by inverting the integral equation of radiative transfer. Because of the nonuniqueness of the solution, the particular temperature profile obtained depends on the numerical inversion technique used and the type of auxiliary information incorporated in the solution. The choice of an inversion algorithm depends on many factors; including the speed and size of computer, the availability of representative statistics, and the accuracy of initial data. Results are presented for a numerical study comparing two contrasting inversion methods: the statistical-matrix inversion method and the nonstatistical-iterative method. These were found to be the most applicable to the problem of determining atmospheric temperature profiles. Tradeoffs between the two methods are discussed.

Smith, W. L.↗