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At least 325 records · Page 18

Upper Limit of Weights in TAI Computation

The international reference time scale International Atomic Time (TAI) computed by the Bureau International des Poids et Mesures (BIPM) relies on a weighted average of data from a large number of atomic clocks. In it, the weight attributed to a given clock depends on its long-term stability. In this paper the TAI algorithm is used as the basis for a discussion of how to implement an upper limit of weight for clocks contributing to the ensemble time. This problem is approached through the comparison of two different techniques. In one case, a maximum relative weight is fixed: no individual clock can contribute more than a given fraction to the resulting time scale. The weight of each clock is then adjusted according to the qualities of the whole set of contributing elements. In the other case, a parameter characteristic of frequency stability is chosen: no individual clock can appear more stable than the stated limit. This is equivalent to choosing an absolute limit of weight and attributing this to to the most stable clocks independently of the other elements of the ensemble. The first technique is more robust than the second and automatically optimizes the stability of the resulting time scale, but leads to a more complicated computatio. The second technique has been used in the TAI algorithm since the very beginning. Careful analysis of tests on real clock data shows that improvement of the stability of the time scale requires revision from time to time of the fixed value chosen for the upper limit of absolute weight. In particular, we present results which confirm the decision of the CCDS Working Group on TAI to increase the absolute upper limit by a factor of 2.5. We also show that the use of an upper relative contribution further helps to improve the stability and may be a useful step towards better use of the massive ensemble of HP 507IA clocks now contributing to TAI.

Thomas, Claudine↗

Connection Between X-Ray Emission and Relativistic Jets in the Radio Galaxies 3C 111 and 3C 120

This work represents a part of a longterm study of the X-ray flux variability in radio galaxies and its relation to flux and structural changes in the associated radio jet. The work described here included: 1) continued study of the emission properties of the FR I radio galaxy 3C 120 known to exhibit a jet/disk connection from our past work; and 2) the commencement of monitoring of a second radio galaxy, the FR I1 object 3C 111 which was selected because of similar radio and X-ray properties to 3C 120, including the presence of Fe K a emission. The association between X-ray dips and new superluminal components, suggesting a picture in which the radio jet is fed by accretion events near the black hole, was identified in 3C 120 using combined RXTE and radio flux monitoring data and bi-monthly to monthly imaging data from the VLBA at 43 GHz. Such data were also obtained for both targets during the period described here. Specific goals were to more broadly investigate the X-ray dip/superluminal connection in 3C 120, thereby determining the epochs of X-ray minima and superluminal ejections more accurately (and hence more precisely determining the distance between the accretion disk and the core of the radio jet), and to determine whether a similar pattern is present in the data for a second radio galaxy. In 3C 111 a different time scale (longer time delays between X-ray dips and superluminal ejections) was expected due to the higher black hole mass implied by its higher radio luminosity: no black hole mass is published for this object but one can be determined from a PDS analysis of the RXTE data. The addition of the second source to the study would identify whether a similar connection was present in other sources and, if found, would provide important information on how time scale (and hence size scale) of accretion disk/jet systems depends on black hole mass. The grant included funding for the reduction and analysis of data obtained during the time period of Rossi XTE cycle 9. During this time window, the project was awarded 2 RXTE pointings weekly for 3C 111 and 4 pointing weekly for 3C 120, excluding time when the target was too close to the sun for observation. T

Aller, Margo F.↗

Machine Learning for Daily Forecasts of Arctic Sea Ice Motion: An Attribution Assessment of Model Predictive Skill

Physics-based simulations of Arctic sea ice are highly complex, involving transport between different phases, length scales, and time scales. Resultantly, numerical simulations of sea ice dynamics have a high computational cost and model uncertainty. We employ data-driven machine learning (ML) to make predictions of sea ice motion. The ML models are built to predict present-day sea ice velocity given present-day wind velocity and previous-day sea ice concentration and velocity. Models are trained using reanalysis winds and satellite-derived sea ice properties. We compare the predictions of three different models: persistence (PS), linear regression (LR), and a convolutional neural network (CNN). We quantify the spatiotemporal variability of the correlation between observations and the statistical model predictions. Additionally, we analyze model performance in comparison to variability in properties related to ice motion (wind velocity, ice velocity, ice concentration, distance from coast, bathymetric depth) to understand the processes related to decreases in model performance. Results indicate that a CNN makes skillful predictions of daily sea ice velocity with a correlation up to 0.81 between predicted and observed sea ice velocity, while the LR and PS implementations exhibit correlations of 0.78 and 0.69, respectively. The correlation varies spatially and seasonally: lower values occur in shallow coastal regions and during times of minimum sea ice extent. LR parameter analysis indicates that wind velocity plays the largest role in predicting sea ice velocity on 1-day time scales, particularly in the central Arctic. Regions where wind velocity has the largest LR parameter are regions where the CNN has higher predictive skill than the LR.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

Plasmon-induced excitation energy transfer in silver nanoparticle dimers: A real-time TDDFTB investigation

Here, using real-time quantum dynamics calculations, we perform theoretical investigations of light-induced interactions and electronic excitation transfer in a silver nanoparticle dimer. Real-time time-dependent density functional tight-binding (RT-TDDFTB) calculations provide details of the quantum dynamical processes at an electronic/atomistic level with attosecond resolution. The computational efficiency of RT-TDDFTB allows us to examine electronic dynamics up to picosecond time scales. With time scales varying over six orders of magnitude, we provide insight into interactions between the nanoparticle and laser and between nanoparticles. Our results show that the coupling between nanoparticle monomers is dependent on the separation distance between the nanoparticles in the dimer. As the interparticle distance is varied, the dipole–dipole interactions and electronic excitation transfer mechanisms are markedly different. At large distances (from 50 to 20 Å), the energy transfer from NP1 to NP2 becomes more efficient as the interparticle distance decreases. The total dipole moment of the Ag 14 nanoparticle dimer increases linearly at an interparticle distance of 20 Å and reaches its maximum after 1.2 ps. The electronic excitation transfer is also the most efficient at 20 Å. At short distances, back-transfer effects reduce the ability of the dimer and NP1 to accept energy from the incident electric field. We attribute the distance-dependent features of the nanoparticle dimer to the beating between the laser acting on NP1 and the back transfer from NP2 to NP1.

37 INORGANIC, ORGANIC, PHYSICAL, AND ANALYTICAL CH↗

Evidence for Photoinduced Polaron Generation in a High Persistence Length Low Bandgap Conjugated Polymer in Solution

Using ultrafast time-resolved infrared (TRIR) spectroscopy, we studied the solution-phase excited-state structural evolution of an indacenodithiophene-co-benzothiadiazole polymer (C8-IDTBT). Following band gap excitation, the TRIR spectra reveal vibrational features that develop within 10 ps and decay over 4 ns. Using pulse radiolysis measurements, charge-modulation spectroscopy, and quantum-chemical calculations, the IR features are assigned to polaron pairs. Interestingly, these features appear on an evolving broad mid-IR electronic absorption background, with kinetics correlating with the formation and decay of the cationradical vibrational bands. A three-state kinetic model successfully reproduces the spectral evolution, revealing that the polaron and exciton populations exist in dynamic equilibrium on picosecond time scales, with time constants for exciton dissociation in the range of 3− 5 ps and polaron-to-exciton reformation between 20 and 100 ps, while both species decay to the ground state on much slower nanosecond time scales (∼1 ns), yielding a remarkably high polaron-generation efficiency, higher than 50%. These findings provide fundamental insights into intramolecular charge photogeneration mechanisms in conjugated polymers, demonstrating efficient bound-polaron formation in isolated polymer chains.

37 INORGANIC, ORGANIC, PHYSICAL, AND ANALYTICAL CH↗

Calculation of the Heat Transfer Coefficient in the Outer Body for a Rotational Detonation

Unsteady heat transfer characterization on the combustion surfaces of Rotational Detonation Engines (RDE) is not well understood. It is generally thought that the complex nature of the unsteady, reacting, compressible fluid flow inside the combustion anulus of the RDE causes the convective heat transfer coefficient to be significantly higher than it is in other applications. Empirical models that have been used to analyze this strictly apply to steady flows where dimensionless groups can be employed. The reacting flow fields that are characteristic of RDEs are inherently compressible, three dimensional, unsteady, and turbulent, having properties that change by orders of magnitude throughout the flow field. They will therefore contain multiple length scales and time scales operating everywhere in the flow during all times. Because of this it is not likely that the RDE flow fields will lend themselves to explanation using simple dimensionless parameters. The dimensionless groups have meaning only in situations where length scales and time scales are singular and well defined. In spite of this it may be possible to get a relatively good idea of what the convection heat transfer coefficient is. In this work a numerical study is performed where the inside wall surface temperature distribution in the RDE outer body is systematically changed over a given range that would be characteristic of the start-up flows inside an RDE. For each case, temperature distributions inside the outer containment wall of the RDE was calculated and compared with experimental data. The closet match can then be used to directly calculate the convection heat transfer coefficient on the inside surface of the RDE.

VanOsdol, John↗

Variability and Predictability of West African Droughts. A Review in the Role of Sea Surface Temperature Anomalies

The Sahel experienced a severe drought during the 1970s and 1980s after wet periods in the 1950s and 1960s. Although rainfall partially recovered since the 1990s, the drought had devastating impacts on society. Most studies agree that this dry period resulted primarily from remote effects of sea surface temperature (SST) anomalies amplified by local land surface-atmosphere interactions. This paper reviews advances made during the last decade to better understand the impact of global SST variability on West African rainfall at interannual to decadal time scales. At interannual time scales, a warming of the equatorial Atlantic and Pacific/Indian Oceans results in rainfall reduction over the Sahel, and positive SST anomalies over the Mediterranean Sea tend to be associated with increased rainfall. At decadal time scales, warming over the tropics leads to drought over the Sahel, whereas warming over the North Atlantic promotes increased rainfall. Prediction systems have evolved from seasonal to decadal forecasting. The agreement among future projections has improved from CMIP3 to CMIP5, with a general tendency for slightly wetter conditions over the central part of the Sahel, drier conditions over the western part, and a delay in the monsoon onset. The role of the Indian Ocean, the stationarity of teleconnections, the determination of the leader ocean basin in driving decadal variability, the anthropogenic role, the reduction of the model rainfall spread, and the improvement of some model components are among the most important remaining questions that continue to be the focus of current international projects.

West Africa↗

Advances in the Application and Utility of Subseasonal-to-Seasonal Predictions

The subseasonal-to-seasonal (S2S) predictive time scale, encompassing lead times ranging from 2 weeks to a season, is at the frontier of forecasting science. Forecasts on this time scale provide opportunities for enhanced application-focused capabilities to complement existing weather and climate services and products. There is, however, a “knowledge–value” gap, where a lack of evidence and awareness of the potential socioeconomic benefits of S2S forecasts limits their wider uptake. To address this gap, here we present the first global community effort at summarizing relevant applications of S2S forecasts to guide further decision-making and support the continued development of S2S forecasts and related services. Focusing on 12 sectoral case studies spanning public health, agriculture, water resource management, renewable energy and utilities, and emergency management and response, we draw on recent advancements to explore their application and utility. These case studies mark a significant step forward in moving from potential to actual S2S forecasting applications. We show that by placing user needs at the forefront of S2S forecast development—demonstrating both skill and utility across sectors—this dialogue can be used to help promote and accelerate the awareness, value, and cogeneration of S2S forecasts. We also highlight that while S2S forecasts are increasingly gaining interest among users, incorporating probabilistic S2S forecasts into existing decision-making operations is not trivial. Nevertheless, S2S forecasting represents a significant opportunity to generate useful, usable, and actionable forecast applications for and with users that will increasingly unlock the potential of this forecasting time scale.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

Component-to-Optimization Workflow Demonstration

This report aims to demonstrate workflow-generating algorithms for optimizing dispatch across a broad range of Integrated Energy System applications using the Framework for Optimization of Resources and Economics (FORCE) tool suite. The optimization is performed at two different time scales. In the coarse time scale, the optimization focuses on a class of energy sources and consumers and aims to find the optimal combinations and flows of energy based on real-time price data information. In the fine time scale, the optimization focuses on a specific thermal energy delivery system and aims to find the optimal setpoints of components in order to meet the energy demands from coarse-time-scale optimizations. In this demonstration, the coarse-scale optimization is implemented using the newly developed Dispatch Optimization Variable Engine (DOVE), while the fine-scale optimization used Optimization of Real-Time Capacity Allocation (ORCA).

29 ENERGY PLANNING, POLICY, AND ECONOMY↗

Thermal equilibrium of collisional non-neutral plasma in a magnetic dipole trap

This paper discusses thermal equilibrium states of single-species plasmas, such as pure electron plasmas and pure positron plasmas, that are confined in a dipole trap. Thermal equilibrium states for such plasmas are routinely realized in the homogeneous magnetic field of Penning–Malmberg traps. We generalize the theory of these states to include inhomogeneous magnetic dipole fields. The approach to thermal equilibrium takes place in two stages with well separated time scales. On the collision time scale, thermal equilibrium is established along each magnetic field line. On the much longer transport time scale, heat conduction and viscosity bring the plasmas on different flux contours into thermal equilibrium, we call this a state of global thermal equilibrium. We present numerical results for local and global thermal equilibria. These results agree with the analytic predictions for charge collections that are large compared with the Debye length. There is, in principle, no limit to the confinement time of a single-species plasma in a global thermal equilibrium state. Experiments with hot electron–ion plasmas performed in the LDX and RT1 devices give us confidence that, in contrast to a Penning–Malmberg trap, a magnetic dipole field can also confine cold quasi-neutral electron–positron pair plasmas on the time scale of the phenomena of interest. Such pair plasmas are assumed to form in the magnetosphere of neutron stars but have so far not been realized in a laboratory. The creation of an electron–positron pair plasma is the main goal of the APEX collaboration.

Steinbrunner, P. (ORCID:0000000317693686)↗

Control of leading-edge vortices on a delta wing

The unsteady flow structure of leading-edge vortices on a delta wing has been investigated using new types of experimental techniques, in order to provide insight into the consequences of various forms of active control. These investigations involve global control of the entire wing and local control applied at crucial locations on or adjacent to the wing. Transient control having long and short time-scales, relative to the convective time-scale C/U(sub infinity), allows substantial modification of the unsteady and time-mean flow structure. Global control at long time-scale involves pitching the wing at rates an order of magnitude lower than the convective time-scale C/U(sub infinity), but at large amplitudes. The functional form of the pitching maneuver exerts a predominant influence on the trajectory of the feeding sheet, the instantaneous vorticity distribution, and the instantaneous location of vortex breakdown. Global control at short time-scales of the order of the inherent frequency of the shear layer separating from the leading-edge and the natural frequency of vortex breakdown shows that 'resonant' response of the excited shear layer-vortex breakdown system is attainable. The spectral content of the induced disturbance is preserved not only across the entire core of the vortex, but also along the axis of the vortex into the region of vortex breakdown. This unsteady modification results in time-mean alteration of the axial and swirl velocity fields and the location of vortex breakdown. Localized control at long and short time-scales involves application of various transient forms of suction and blowing using small probes upstream and downstream of the location of vortex breakdown, as well as distributed suction and blowing along the leading-edge of the wing applied in a direction tangential to the feeding sheet. These local control techniques can result in substantial alteration of the location of vortex breakdown; in some cases, it is possible to accomplish this without net mass addition to the flow field.

Magness, C.↗

A similarity hypothesis for the two-point correlation tensor in a temporally evolving plane wake

The analysis demonstrated that the governing equations for the two-point velocity correlation tensor in the temporally evolving wake admit similarity solutions, which include the similarity solutions for the single-point moment as a special case. The resulting equations for the similarity solutions include two constants, beta and Re(sub sigma), that are ratios of three characteristic time scales of processes in the flow: a viscous time scale, a time scale characteristic of the spread rate of the flow, and a characteristic time scale of the mean strain rate. The values of these ratios depend on the initial conditions of the flow and are most likely measures of the coherent structures in the initial conditions. The occurrences of these constants in the governing equations for the similarity solutions indicates that these solutions, in general, will only be the same for two flows if these two constants are equal (and hence the coherent structures in the flows are related). The comparisons between the predictions of the similarity hypothesis and the data presented here and elsewhere indicate that the similarity solutions for the two-point correlation tensors provide a good approximation of the measures of those motions that are not significantly affected by the boundary conditions caused by the finite extent of real flows. Thus, the two-point similarity hypothesis provides a useful tool for both numerical and physical experimentalist that can be used to examine how the finite extent of real flows affect the evolution of the different scales of motion in the flow.

Ewing, D. W.↗

The Space-Time Conservative Schemes for Large-Scale, Time-Accurate Flow Simulations with Tetrahedral Meshes

Despite decades of development of unstructured mesh methods, high-fidelity time-accurate simulations are still predominantly carried out on structured, or unstructured hexahedral meshes by using high-order finite-difference, weighted essentially non-oscillatory (WENO), or hybrid schemes formed by their combinations. In this work, the space-time conservation element solution element (CESE) method is used to simulate several flow problems including supersonic jet/shock interaction and its impact on launch vehicle acoustics, and direct numerical simulations of turbulent flows using tetrahedral meshes. This paper provides a status report for the continuing development of the space-time conservation element solution element (CESE) numerical and software framework under the Revolutionary Computational Aerosciences (RCA) project. Solution accuracy and large-scale parallel performance of the numerical framework is assessed with the goal of providing a viable paradigm for future high-fidelity flow physics simulations.

Venkatachari, Balaji Shankar↗

A Cutoff in the X-Ray Fluctuation Power Density Spectrum of the Seyfert 1 Galaxy NGC 3516

During 1997 March-July, RXTE observed the bright, strongly variable Seyfert 1 galaxy NGC 3516 once every approx. 12.8 hr for 4.5 months and nearly continuously (with interruptions due to SAA passage but not Earth occultation) for a 4.2 day period in the middle. These were followed by ongoing monitoring once every approx. 4.3 days. These data are used to construct the first well-determined X-ray fluctuation power density spectrum (PDS) of an active galaxy to span more than 4 decades of usable temporal frequency. The PDS shows no signs of any strict or quasi-periodicity, but does show a progressive flattening of the power-low slope from -1.74 at short time scales to -0.73 at longer time scales. This is the clearest observation to date of the long-predicted cutoff in the PDS. The characteristic variability time scale corresponding to this cutoff temporal frequency is approx. 1 month. Although it is unclear how this time scale may be interpreted in terms of a physical size or process, there are several promising candidate models. The PDS appears similar to those seen for Galactic black hole candidates such as Cyg X-1, suggesting that these two classes of objects with very different luminosities and putative black hole masses (differing by more than a factor of 10(exp 5)) may have similar X-ray generation processes and structures.

Edelson, Rick↗

Global Lightning Variations Caused by Changes in Flash Rate and by Changes in Number of Thunderstorms

Observations from the Optical Transient Detector in space are used to examine the response of the number of storms and the total flash rate to thermodynamic forcing of deep convection on the diurnal and annual time scales. On the diurnal time scale, the flash rate appears to track with cloud buoyancy, and storm numbers dominate later in the cycle. On the annual time scale, almost all of the total lightning response is due to changes in the number of storms, with a negligible contribution from flash rate.

Williams, E.↗

Subseasonal prediction with and without a well-represented stratosphere in CESM1

There is a growing demand for understanding sources of predictability on subseasonal to seasonal (S2S) time scales. Predictability at subseasonal time scales is believed to come from processes varying slower than the atmosphere such as soil moisture, snowpack, sea ice, and ocean heat content. The stratosphere as well as tropospheric modes of variability can also provide predictability at subseasonal time scales. Furthermore, the contributions of the above sources to S2S predictability are not well quantified. Here we evaluate the subseasonal prediction skill of the Community Earth System Model, version 1 (CESM1), in the default version of the model as well as a version with the improved representation of stratospheric variability to assess the role of an improved stratosphere on prediction skill. We demonstrate that the subseasonal skill of CESM1 for surface temperature and precipitation is comparable to that of operational models. We find that a better-resolved stratosphere improves stratospheric but not surface prediction skill for weeks 3–4.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

An Expanded RXTE Survey of Long-Term X-ray Variability in Seyfert 1 Galaxies

The first seven years of RXTE monitoring of Seyfert 1 active galactic nuclei have been systematically analyzed to yield five homogenous samples of 2-12 keV light curves, probing hard X-ray variability on successively longer durations from approx. 1 day to approx. 3.5 years. 2-10 keV variability on time scales of approx. 1 day, as probed by ASCA, are included. All sources exhibit stronger X-ray variability towards longer time scales, with variability amplitudes saturating at the longest time scales, but the increase is greater for relatively higher luminosity sources. The well-documented anticorrelation between variability amplitude and luminosity is confirmed on all time scales. However, anticorrelations between variability amplitude and black hole mass estimate are evident on only the shortest time scales probed. The data are consistent with the models of power spectral density (PSD) movement described in Markowitz et al. (2003) and McHardy et al. (2004), whereby Seyfert 1 galaxies variability can be described by a single, universal PSD shape whose cutoff frequency scales with black hole mass. The best-fitting scaling relations between variability time scale, black hole mass and X-ray luminosity support an average accretion rate of 2% of the Eddington limit for the sample. Nearly all sources exhibit stronger variability in the relatively soft 2-4 keV band compared to the 7-12 keV band on all time scales. Color-flux diagrams support also Seyfert 1s' softening as they brighten. There are indications that relatively less luminous or less massive sources exhibit a greater degree of spectral variability for a given increase in overall flux.

Markowitz, A.↗

Magnetic reconnection and thermal equilibration

When a magnetic field is forced to evolve on a time scale sev, as by footpoint motions driving the solar corona or non-axisymmetric instabilities in tokamaks, the magnetic field lines undergo large-scale changes in topology on a time scale approximately an order of magnitude longer than $\tau$ ev . But the physics that allows such changes operates on a time scale eight or more orders of magnitude slower. An analogous phenomenon occurs in air. Temperature equilibration occurs on a time scale approximately an order of magnitude longer than it takes air to cross a room, $\tau$ ev , although the physical mechanism that allows temperature equilibration is approximately four orders of magnitude slower than $\tau$ ev . The use of Lagrangian coordinates allows the fundamental equations to be solved and both phenomena explained. The theories of thermal equilibration and magnetic reconnection are developed in parallel to help readers obtain an understanding of the importance and implications of analyses using Lagrangian coordinates.

70 PLASMA PHYSICS AND FUSION TECHNOLOGY↗