Results for “Temperature evolution” — Page 18

NASA NTRSDate not supplied

Small Spacecraft Sample Return to Support Gateway and Lunar Science

The Lunar Gateway is a planned orbital outpost to support Lunar surface, Cislunar, and deep space exploration activities. NASA, together with international and commercial partners, are providing various capabilities, infrastructure, and services to build the Lunar economy. As Gateway capabilities and transportation logistics evolve, utilization is expected to increase, providing ample science, technology demonstration, and commercial development opportunities. Elements of the transportation network supporting Lunar activities are primarily focused on the outbound segment, which include Commercial Lunar Payload Services (CLPS), Human Landing System (HLS), Deep Space Logistics (DSL), and the SLS/Orion crew transportation system. Initially, the only Earth return segment will be provided via Orion. However, infrequent mission cadence (once every 12 months), limited payload return mass (100 kg), and operational constraints suggest that additional sample return logistics capability will be needed. Sustaining long-term presence at the Moon will likely require innovative approaches for frequent and affordable payload return. NASA Ames Research Center and the DSL team at Kennedy Space Center (which provides the Gateway Logistics Services missions) have investigated the development of a small spacecraft-based sample return capability to complement Orion. The goal of the first mission is to demonstrate the capability as a part of an early DSL mission, and provide up to 10 kg of scientific sample return from the Gateway. The mission concept envisions the progressive addition of sample return capabilities, including returning temperature- and acceleration-sensitive payloads, and evolution into a commercially provided service, similar to existing ISS payload return logistics. An overview of payload science and technology use cases and small spacecraft mission concepts will be presented to engage scientists, payload developers and mission planners who are considering Lunar exploration activities that will require the return of high-value samples from the Gateway and/or the lunar surface.

Alan Cassell↗

NASA NTRSDate not supplied

Small Spacecraft Sample Return Mission Concept to Support Gateway and Lunar Science

The Lunar Gateway is a planned orbital outpost to support Lunar surface, Cislunar, and deep space exploration activities. NASA, together with international and commercial partners, are providing various capabilities, infrastructure, and services to build the Lunar economy. As Gateway capabilities and transportation logistics evolve, utilization is expected to increase, providing ample science, technology demonstration, and commercial development opportunities. Elements of the transportation network supporting Lunar activities are primarily focused on the outbound segment, which include Commercial Lunar Payload Services (CLPS), Human Landing System (HLS), Deep Space Logistics (DSL), and the SLS/Orion crew transportation system. Initially, the only Earth return segment will be provided via Orion. However, infrequent mission cadence (once every 12 months), limited payload return mass (100 kg), and operational constraints suggest that additional sample return logistics capability will be needed. Sustaining long-term presence at the Moon will likely require innovative approaches for frequent and affordable payload return. NASA Ames Research Center and the DSL team at Kennedy Space Center (which provides the Gateway Logistics Services missions) have investigated the development of a small spacecraft-based sample return capability to complement Orion. The goal of the first mission is to demonstrate the capability as a part of an early DSL mission, and provide up to 10 kg of scientific sample return from the Gateway. The mission concept envisions the progressive addition of sample return capabilities, including returning temperature- and acceleration-sensitive payloads, and evolution into a commercially provided service, similar to existing ISS payload return logistics. An overview of payload science and technology use cases and small spacecraft mission concepts will be presented to engage scientists, payload developers and mission planners who are considering Lunar exploration activities that will require the return of high-value samples from the Gateway and/or the lunar surface.

Small Spacecraft↗

NASA NTRSDate not supplied

Small Spacecraft Sample Return Mission Concept to Support Gateway and Lunar Science

The Lunar Gateway is a planned orbital outpost to support Lunar surface, Cislunar, and deep space exploration activities. NASA, together with international and commercial partners, are providing various capabilities, infrastructure, and services to build the Lunar economy. As Gateway capabilities and transportation logistics evolve, utilization is expected to increase, providing ample science, technology demonstration, and commercial development opportunities. Elements of the transportation network supporting Lunar activities are primarily focused on the outbound segment, which include Commercial Lunar Payload Services (CLPS), Human Landing System (HLS), Deep Space Logistics (DSL), and the SLS/Orion crew transportation system. Initially, the only Earth return segment will be provided via Orion. However, infrequent mission cadence (once every 12 months), limited payload return mass (100 kg), and operational constraints suggest that additional sample return logistics capability will be needed. Sustaining long-term presence at the Moon will likely require innovative approaches for frequent and affordable payload return. NASA Ames Research Center and the DSL team at Kennedy Space Center (which provides the Gateway Logistics Services missions) have investigated the development of a small spacecraft-based sample return capability to complement Orion. The goal of the first mission is to demonstrate the capability as a part of an early DSL mission, and provide up to 10 kg of scientific sample return from the Gateway. The mission concept envisions the progressive addition of sample return capabilities, including returning temperature- and acceleration-sensitive payloads, and evolution into a commercially provided service, similar to existing ISS payload return logistics. An overview of payload science and technology use cases and small spacecraft mission concepts will be presented to engage scientists, payload developers and mission planners who are considering Lunar exploration activities that will require the return of high-value samples from the Gateway and/or the lunar surface.

Alan Cassell↗

NASA NTRS2011

A Model of Reduced Kinetics for Alkane Oxidation Using Constituents and Species for N-Heptane

The reduction of elementary or skeletal oxidation kinetics to a subgroup of tractable reactions for inclusion in turbulent combustion codes has been the subject of numerous studies. The skeletal mechanism is obtained from the elementary mechanism by removing from it reactions that are considered negligible for the intent of the specific study considered. As of now, there are many chemical reduction methodologies. A methodology for deriving a reduced kinetic mechanism for alkane oxidation is described and applied to n-heptane. The model is based on partitioning the species of the skeletal kinetic mechanism into lights, defined as those having a carbon number smaller than 3, and heavies, which are the complement of the species ensemble. For modeling purposes, the heavy species are mathematically decomposed into constituents, which are similar but not identical to groups in the group additivity theory. From analysis of the LLNL (Lawrence Livermore National Laboratory) skeletal mechanism in conjunction with CHEMKIN II, it is shown that a similarity variable can be formed such that the appropriately non-dimensionalized global constituent molar density exhibits a self-similar behavior over a very wide range of equivalence ratios, initial pressures and initial temperatures that is of interest for predicting n-heptane oxidation. Furthermore, the oxygen and water molar densities are shown to display a quasi-linear behavior with respect to the similarity variable. The light species ensemble is partitioned into quasi-steady and unsteady species. The reduced model is based on concepts consistent with those of Large Eddy Simulation (LES) in which functional forms are used to replace the small scales eliminated through filtering of the governing equations; in LES, these small scales are unimportant as far as the overwhelming part of dynamic energy is concerned. Here, the scales thought unimportant for recovering the thermodynamic energy are removed. The concept is tested by using tabular information from the LLNL skeletal mechanism in conjunction with CHEMKIN II utilized as surrogate ideal functions replacing the necessary functional forms. The test reveals that the similarity concept is indeed justified and that the combustion temperature is well predicted, but that the ignition time is over-predicted, a fact traced to neglecting a detailed description of the processes leading to the heavies chemical decomposition. To palliate this deficiency, functional modeling is incorporated into this conceptual reduction in addition to the modeling the evolution of the global constituent molar density, the enthalpy evolution of the heavies, the contribution to the reaction rate of the unsteady lights from other light species and from the heavies, the molar density evolution of oxygen and water, and the mole fractions of the quasisteady light species. The model is compact in that there are only nine species-related progress variables. Results are presented showing the performance of the model for predicting the temperature and species evolution. The model reproduces the ignition time over a wide range of equivalence ratios, initial pressure, and initial temperature.

Harstad, Kenneth G.↗

NASA NTRS1992

Examination of the physical, electrical, and microwave evolution of sea water into young ice

Knowledge of the relationships between ice thickness, its temperature profile, the distribution of salinity, the dielectric property profile, and roughness of the air-ice interface is important to the understanding of the backscatter response of new and young sea ice. Backscatter, physical property, and electrical property measurements made in the laboratory during the first 120 h of growth aid in describing the evolution of first-year ice, in this case open water to gray ice (14.5 cm thick). Results on the evolution response for the case when the ambient air temperature is about -15 C are given, providing insight into the effects of upper ice sheet temperatures, the accompanying dielectric constant response, and the collection of brine and free water at the air-ice interface on the backscatter response.

Onstott, Robert G.↗

NASA NTRS1974

On the thermal evolution of the terrestrial planets

Physical and chemical constraints for such different planetary objects as the earth, the moon and meteorite parent bodies can best be satisfied by thermal history models having high initial temperatures. On the basis of thermal calculations it is suggested that the evolution of the other terrestrial planets (Mars, Venus and Mercury) was also characterized by high initial temperatures. Under these conditions, melting and, consequently, fractionation would set in at an early stage. Because of the resulting redistribution of the long-lived radioactive heat sources and the concentration of these elements in the surface layers, large-scale differentiation could be achieved by partial melting.

Fricker, P. E.↗

NASA NTRS2014

Patterns of Convective Influence and Temperature in the TTL during ATTREX

The Tropical Tropopause Layer, a zonal torus of air around 13-18km altitude and -30 to 30 latitude,is the gatekeeper for air entering the stratosphere from the troposphere. The overall speed of theupward motion affects the input of all the trace constituents, but how the upward transfer is distributedbetween convective injection and slow ascent indirectly driven by breaking waveshas a critical effect on both water and some short-lived species (e.g., bromine compounds). Convection'spotential ability to bypass the cold trap in the center of the TTL torus can contribute to stratospherichydration. Convection can also quickly move short-lived tracers to higher altitudes (and higher ozonevalues), and contribute to ozone destruction.This presentation focusses on the relationship of convectively influenced air to temperature in the TTL, withan emphasis on the qualitative evolution during ATTREX. We use a technique of obtaining global, highresolution distributions of convective cloud tops at 3-hourly intervals to derive distributions ofconvectively influenced air in the TTL, and examine its relationship to TTL temperature. TTL temperaturedistributions are often affected directly by convection, but equatorial and other gravity waves having a varietyof space and time scales are also important. The relationship of these temperature patterns to outputfrom convection will determine whether hydrated air remains in the TTL, or whether it is stripped of itswater soon after injection.

Pfister, Leonhard↗

NASA NTRS1986

Zonal wind observations during a geomagnetic storm

In situ measurements taken by the Wind and Temperature Spectrometer (WATS) onboard the Dynamics Explorer 2 spacecraft during a geomagnetic storm display zonal wind velocities that are reduced in the corotational direction as the storm intensifies. The data were taken within the altitudes 275 to 475 km in the dusk local time sector equatorward of the auroral region. Characteristic variations in the value of the Dst index of horizontal geomagnetic field strength are used to monitor the storm evolution. The detected global rise in atmospheric gas temperature indicates the development of thermospheric heating. Concurrent with that heating, reductions in corotational wind velocities were measured equatorward of the auroral region. Just after the sudden commencement, while thermospheric heating is intense in both hemispheres, eastward wind velocities in the northern hemisphere show reductions ranging from 500 m/s over high latitudes to 30 m/s over the geomagnetic equator. After 10 hours storm time, while northern thermospheric heating is diminishing, wind velocity reductions, distinct from those initially observed, begin to develop over southern latitudes. In the latter case, velocity reductions range from 300 m/s over the highest southern latitudes to 150 m/s over the geomagnetic equator and extend into the Northern Hemisphere. The observations highlight the interhemispheric asymmetry in the development of storm effects detected as enhanced gas temperatures and reduced eastward wind velocities. Zonal wind reductions over high latitudes can be attributed to the storm induced equatorward spread of westward polar cap plasma convection and the resulting plasma-neutral collisions. However, those collisions are less significant over low latitudes; so zonal wind reductions over low latitudes must be attributed to an equatorward extension of a thermospheric circulation pattern disrupted by high latitude collisions between neutrals transported via eastward winds and ions convecting westward.

Miller, N. J.↗

NASA NTRS1993

Deformation mechanisms of NiAl cyclicly deformed near the brittle-to-ductile transition temperature

The intermetallic compound NiAl is one of many advanced materials which is being scrutinized for possible use in high temperature, structural applications. Stoichiometric NiAl has a high melting temperature, excellent oxidation resistance, and good thermal conductivity. Past research has concentrated on improving monotonic properties. The encouraging results obtained on binary and micro-alloyed NiAl over the past ten years have led to the broadening of NiAl experimental programs. The purpose of this research project was to determine the low cycle fatigue properties and dislocation mechanisms of stoichiometric NiAl at temperatures near the monotonic brittle-to-ductile transition. The fatigue properties were found to change only slightly in the temperature range of 600 to 700 K; a temperature range over which monotonic ductility and fracture strength increase markedly. The shape of the cyclic hardening curves coincided with the changes observed in the dislocation structures. The evolution of dislocation structures did not appear to change with temperature.

Cullers, Cheryl L.↗

NASA NTRS1982

Neutron star evolutionary sequences

Detailed numerical calculations which are solutions of the full set of general relativistic equations describing the evolution of a spherical star are presented, for the case of the evolution of neutron stars that are cooling over the central temperatures range of 10 to the 10th to 10 to the 7th K. The effects of nucleon superfluidity in the inner crust and core are included, and models are constructed with and without a pion condensate at high densities. It is found that the localized neutrino cooling which dominates the early evolution of neutron stars is so rapid that heat transport within the star cannot keep pace, and temperature distribution is not isothermal. The residual contraction of the neutron star during the early cooling phase contributes little to the heat budget of the star, and most of the gravitational energy released raises the Fermi energy of the degenerate nucleons. It is concluded that since calculations with and without pion condensate are consistent with the upper limits of current observations, these are not sufficient in distinguishing between the various models of neutron star cooling.

Richardson, M. B.↗

NASA NTRS1989

On the diurnal variation of noctilucent clouds

The relationship between nuctilucent clouds (NLC), which are observed from the ground usually within 2 or 3 hrs of local midnight, and the polar mesospheric clouds (PMC), which are observed by satellites in full daylight, as well as the reason for the differences in their optical properties and their observed heights are investigated. Based on a suggestion that these differences can be attributed to a diurnal variation in the properties of a single type of cloud, two published models of the diurnal and semidiurnal variations of temperature, vertical wind speed, and eddy diffusion coefficient at high latitude to simulate the evolution of ice clouds over a 24-hr period. The results show that the minimum in temperature at about 2000 hours LT causes a sharp maximum in scattered brightness to occur about 1 hour before local midnight, with up to a factor of 7 variation in cloud brightness between noon and midnight. It is noted, however, that considerable uncertainties exist in these tidal models.

Jensen, Eric↗

NASA NTRS2011

Intraseasonal Variations in Tropical Energy Balance: Relevance to Climate Sensitivity?

Intraseasonal variability of deep convection represents a fundamental mode of organization for tropical convection. While most studies of intraseasonal oscillations (ISOs) have focused on the spatial propagation and dynamics of convectively coupled circulations, here we examine the projection of ISOs on the tropically-averaged heat and moisture budget. One unresolved question concerns the degree to which observable variations in the "fast" processes (e.g. convection, radiative / turbulent fluxes) can inform our understanding of feedback mechanisms operable in the context of climate change. Our analysis use daily data from satellite observations, the Modern Era analysis for Research and Applications (MERRA), and other model integrations to address these questions: (i) How are tropospheric temperature variations related to that tropical deep convection and the associated ice cloud fractional amount (ICF), ice water path (IWP), and properties of warmer liquid clouds? (ii) What role does moisture transport play vis-a-vis ocean latent heat flux in enabling the evolution of deep convection to mediate PBL - free atmospheric temperature equilibration? (iii) What affect do convectively generated upper-tropospheric clouds have on the TOA radiation budget? Our methodology is similar to that of Spencer et al., (2007 GRL ) whereby a composite time series of various quantities over 60+ ISO events is built using tropical mean tropospheric temperature signal as a reference to which the variables are related at various lag times (from -30 to +30 days). The area of interest encompasses the global oceans between 20oN/S. The increase of convective precipitation cannot be sustained by evaporation within the domain, implying strong moisture transports into the tropical ocean area. The decrease in net TOA radiation that develops after the peak in deep convective rainfall, is part of the response that constitutes a "discharge" / "recharge" mechanism that facilitates tropical heat balance maintenance on these time scales. However, water vapor and hydrologic scaling relationships for this mode of variability cast doubt on the utility of ISO variations as proxies for climate sensitivity response to external radiatively forced (e.g. greenhouse gas-induced) climate change.

Robertson, Franklin R.↗

NASA NTRS2004

Measuring the Mass Distribution in Z is Approximately 0.2 Cluster Lenses with XMM, HST and CFHT

Being the most massive gravitationally bound objects in the Universe, clusters of galaxies are prime targets for studies of structure formation and evolution. Specifically the comoving space density of virialized clusters of a given mass (or X-ray temperature), but also the frequency and degree of substructure, as well as the shape of the cluster mass profile are quantities whose current values and evolution as a function of lookback time can provide important constraints on the cosmological and physical parameters of structure formation theories. The project funded by NASA grant NAG 5-10041 intended to take such studies to a new level by combining observations of a well-selected cluster sample by three state-of-the-art telescopes: HST, to accurately measure the mass distribution in the cluster core (approx. 0.5 h(sup -1)(sub 50) Mpc) via strong gravitational lensing; CFHT, to measure the large scale mass distribution out to approx. 3 Mpc via weak lensing; and XMM, to measure the gas density and temperature distribution accurately on intermediate scales < 1.5 Mpc. XMM plays a pivotal role in this context as the calibration of X-ray mass measurements through accurate, spatially resolved X-ray temperature measurements (particularly in the cosmologically most sensitive range of kT> 5 keV) is central to the questions outlined above. This set of observations promised to yield the best cluster mass measurements obtained so far for a representative sample, thus allowing us to: 1) Measure the high-mass end of the local cluster mass function; 2) Test predictions of a universal cluster mass profile; 3) calibrate the mass-temperature and temperature-luminosity relations for clusters and the scatter around these relations, which is vital for studies of cluster evolution using the X-ray temperature and X-ray luminosity functions.

Source record↗

NASA NTRSDate not supplied

Open-source Numerical Modeling of Solidification Cracking Susceptibility: Application to Refractory Alloy Systems

Introduction. Alloys such as aluminum, nickel-base, and austenitic stainless steels are susceptible to solidification cracking during welding and 3D printing. Compositional optimization is one method used to effectively mitigate solidification cracking of those alloy systems. With the surge in hypersonic and in-space propulsion activities, refractory metals (Nb, Mo, Ta, W, and Re) and their alloy derivatives are increasing in importance due to their extreme high melting point and retention of high-temperature strength; however, their chemistry was most typically optimized to promote ductility during mechanical operations such as drawing and forming. Welding of such alloys has been a challenge due to a number of issues including solidification cracking, atmospheric contamination (O, C, and N), as well as a shift in ductile-to-brittle transition to higher temperature following grain growth induced by welding. Compositional optimization of refractory alloys for solidification cracking resistance in particular is desirable as their usage increases with the advent of advanced manufacturing methods such as 3D printing. This work evaluates the effect of compositional variation in refractory metal systems on the solidification cracking susceptibility with the goals of optimizing existing alloys and joining process techniques, and formulating new alloys with increased solidification cracking resistance. Experimental Procedures. A python code was developed in a Jupyter notebook environment (Michael and Sowards, 2023) to facilitate the calculation of crack susceptibility index proposed by Kou (2015). Composition is entered as a single point, or as a 1-D or 2-D array. The notebook calls pycalphad (Otis and Liu, 2017 and Bocklund et al, 2020) to calculate the evolution of fraction solid as a function of temperature (under either Scheil or equilibrium assumptions) and then evaluates steepness of the fraction solid curve near the terminal stage of solidification to predict solidification cracking resistance. Open source thermodynamic databases available at online repositories are used (van de Walle). The process is setup in an automated fashion to generate plots that show variation in solidification cracking susceptibility according to composition on 1-D line plots or 2-D contour plots. The Jupyter notebook and crack susceptibility algorithm was also integrated with a widely used commercial CALPHAD code for validation and alloy exploration. Results and Discussion. The crack susceptibility model was first validated against a series of refractory alloy compositions evaluated in past work which utilized a specialized Varestraint test built inside a vacuum chamber environment (Lessman and Gold, 1971). The alloys tested in the Varestraint apparatus included T-111 (Ta-8W-2Hf), ASTAR-811C (Ta-8W-1Re-0.7Hf-0.025C), FS-85 (Nb-27Ta-10W-1Zr), T-222 (Ta-9.6W-2.4Hf-0.01C), Ta-10W, B-66 (Nb-5Mo-5V-1Zr), and SCb-291 (Nb-10W-10Ta). The initial test of the model showed a strong correlation with empirical Varestraint data, i.e., a Spearman rank correlation between model predictions and hot cracking measurements was observed to be greater than 0.8. Following the validation, a set of refractory metal binary mixtures was investigated to evaluate sensitivity of Nb, Mo, W, and Ta to C, N, and O content. A series of plots were produced that suggest ppmw ranges of C, N, and O where solidification cracking increases significantly and reaches a maximum. Also comparative ranking of each primary refractory metal to each interstitial was produced. For example C produces greater cracking response in Mo whereas O produces greater cracking response in Ta and Nb. Such compositional values have utility in setting limits on pickup of these interstitial elements during welding and printing rather than using a one-size-fits-all approach. Furthermore, the results have use in determining additive powder recycling requirements, which is especially pertinent for refractory metal powders due to their high cost compared to conventional alloys. Another application created thousands of hypothetical alloys within the nominal specified composition range of two widely used refractory alloys C103 (Nb-10Hf-1Ti) and TZM (Mo-0.5Ti-0.1Zr). The cracking index was calculated for the alloys and results were fed into machine learning regression techniques including Multiple Linear Regression, Ridge Regression, and Lasso Regression to determine relative potency each alloying element had on computed solidification cracking index. A series of linear equations were produced that relate composition of C103 and TZM to solidification cracking index. The crack susceptibility of C103 for example is described by an equation of the form: cracking index ~ O + 0.667*C + 0.635*N + 0.00037*Ta – 0.0008*Hf (in wt.%) From that equation, it is clear that O has strong propensity to induce solidification cracking. Interestingly, Hf is shown to reduce calculated cracking response. Finally, realizing the potential of this method to discover new refractory alloy formulations across the period table that have low solidification cracking sensitivity, the code was applied to new untested alloy systems including W-Zr-C, W-Ta-C, and others. Conclusions. In summary, an open source numerical method has been developed using Python code to calculate Kou’s crack susceptibility index. The method was applied to refractory metals which are inherently difficult to study from a weldability testing standpoint since inert shielding gas is not sufficient and welding is typically done in vacuum, especially in light of findings presented here where oxygen has profound influence on solidification cracking. This work revealed the effect of compositional variations on a series of refractory metals and showed the framework defined here will be useful in 1) the development of new alloys that have improved weldability and 3D printability, 2) placing compositional limits on existing alloys, and 3) ensuring adequate controls of manufacturing processes such as 3D printing where powder reuse is critical. Keywords. pycalphad; Python; refractory metals; solidification cracking. References. B. Bocklund et. al. (2020) http://doi.org/10.5281/zenodo.3630657. S. Kou. (2015) https://doi.org/10.1016/j.actamat.2015.01.034. G.G. Lessmann and R.E. Gold. Welding Journal, issue 1, pp. 1-s – 8-s (1971). F.N. Michael and J.W. Sowards. NASA/TM-20230002218 (2023). R. Otis and Z.-K. Liu. (2017) http://doi.org/10.5334/jors.140. A. Van de Wallle et. al. (2018) https://doi.org/10.1016/j.calphad.2018.04.003.

pycalphad↗

NASA NTRS2001

The Evolution of Tropical and Extratropical Precipitation During ENSO Events

Many studies have tried to relate ENSO and global precipitation. This work examines changes in precipitation pattern, amount and intensity during ENSO events over the past 20+ years, using satellite-gauge merged data sets. ENSOs vary in duration and may peak at different times of the year. In this way, compositing events into seasons, such as onset, mature, and decay, is a challenge. This study will explore the sensitivity of using fixed versus variable month seasons to describe El Ninos and La Ninas. Global precipitation patterns will be shown. Both increases and decreases in rainfall are observed during ENSO, and there are more extreme and less 'normal' rain rates (i.e. a greater occurrence of drought and flood) in space and time. In the Southern Hemisphere during ENSO there is a spiral pattern of precipitation anomalies, centered at the pole, that agrees with previous studies looking at model-generated surface pressure. This study also examines the evolution of precipitation and SST in the tropical Pacific. The relation between the Maritime Continent convection center and the underlying surface temperatures of the islands will also be explored. An examination of the evolution of the 1997-98 El Nino and accompanying precipitation anomalies revealed that a dry area surrounding Indonesia, preceded the formation of positive SST anomalies in the eastern Pacific Ocean, 30-60 day oscillations in the winter of 1996/97 may have contributed to this lag relationship. A similar time line of onset was observed during the 1982-83 El Nino. These two events were comparable in strength and timing during the annual cycle. However, in the 1982-83 event the warming at the surface first appeared in the central Pacific, whereas in the 1997-98 event the warming first emerged off the coast of Peru. In both events the positive precipitation anomalies were first observed in the central Pacific, moving to the east Pacific within a month or two.

Curtis, W. R. Scott, III↗

NASA NTRS2020

Burning Embers: Towards More Transparent and Robust Climate-change Risk Assessments

The Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) reports provide policy-relevant insights about climate impacts, vulnerabilities and adaptation through a process of peer-reviewed literature assessments underpinned by expert judgement. An iconic output from these assessments is the burning embers diagram, first used in the Third Assessment Report to visualize reasons for concern, which aggregate climate-change-related impacts and risks to various systems and sectors. These burning embers use colour transitions to show changes in the assessed level of risk to humans and ecosystems as a function of global mean temperature. In this Review, we outline the history and evolution of the burning embers and associated reasons for concern framework, focusing on the methodological approaches and advances. While the assessment framework and figure design have been broadly retained over time, refinements in methodology have occurred, including the consideration of different risks, use of confidence statements, more formalized protocols and standardized metrics. Comparison across reports reveals that the risk level at a given temperature has generally increased with each assessment cycle, reflecting accumulating scientific evidence. For future assessments, an explicit, transparent and systematic process of expert elicitation is needed to enhance comparability, quality and credibility of burning embers.

burning embers diagram↗

NASA NTRS1986

Precipitation estimation using passive microwave radiometry at 92 and 183 GHz - Aircraft results

The applications of satellite and aircraft sensors to precipitation estimation are discussed. The advanced microwave moisture sensor and imagery and the PPI photographs and digital radar data are described. The aircraft microwave sensor and radar imagery representing the relationships between patterns and gradients of brightness temperature, T(B), and echo intensities for three cases (evolution of an oceanic squall line, convection over land, and intense thunderstorms over land) are examined and compared. The observed T(B)s are also compared with the theoretical calculations of Wu and Weinman (1984) and Szejwach et al. (1986). The observations of convective precipitation from an aircraft microwave radiometer operating at 92 and 183 GHz reveal that the areas of T(B) much colder than atmospheric temperature are positively correlated with regions of higher radar reflectivity, and the patterns and gradients of T(B) are similar in appearance to the radar echoes.

Hakkarinen, Ida M.↗

NASA NTRS1983

Radial evolution of ion distribution functions

A survey of solar wind ion velocity distributions and derived parameters (temperature, ion differential speed, heat flux, adiabatic invariants) is presented with emphasis on the heliocentric distance range between 0.3 and 1 AU traversed by the Helios solar probe. The radial evolution of nonthermal features are discussed which are observed to be most pronounced at perihelion. Within the framework of quasilinear plasma theory, wave particle interactions that may shape the ion distributions are considered. Some results of a self consistent model calculation are presented accounting for ion acceleration and heating by resonant momentum and energy exchange with ion cyclotron and magnetosonic waves propagating away from the Sun along the interplanetary magnetic field. Another tentative explanation for the occurrence of large perpendicular proton temperatures is offered in terms of heating by Landau damping of lower hybrid waves.

Marsch, E.↗