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NASA NTRS1990

Evolution of the total ozone field during the breakdown of the Antarctic circumpolar vortex

Nine years of total ozone measurements from the TOMS on Nimbus 7 are used to study the evolution of the Southern Hemisphere total ozone field during the breakdown of the Antarctic circumpolar vortex. The TOMS data provide detailed maps of the morphology of the ozone field and reliable estimates of the vertically integrated meridional transport of ozone during the springtime period when the breakdown occurs (September, October, November). In estimating the ozone transport, chemical effects, including those thought to be responsible for the Antarctic ozone hole, are neglected. This approximation appears to be valid for time scales of a few days to a week. On this time scale, local ozone changes are primarily due to transport. Planetary-scale waves, especially zonal wave numbers 1 and 2 dominate the eddy variance and ozone transport. Wave number 1 is quasistationary, while wave number 2 is eastward moving with a period of about 10 days.

Bowman, Kenneth P.↗

DOE OSTI2024

Airborne Measurements of Scale‐Dependent Latent Heat Flux Impacted by Water Vapor and Vertical Velocity Over Heterogeneous Land Surfaces During the CHEESEHEAD19 Campaign

Abstract The water vapor transport associated with latent heat flux (LE) in the planetary boundary layer (PBL) is critical for the atmospheric hydrological cycle, radiation balance, and cloud formation. The spatiotemporal variability of LE and water vapor mixing ratio ( r v ) are poorly understood due to the scale‐dependent and nonlinear atmospheric transport responses to land surface heterogeneity. Here, airborne in situ measurements with the wavelet technique are utilized to investigate scale‐dependent relationships among LE, vertical velocity ( w ) variance (), and r v variance () over a heterogeneous surface during the Chequamegon Heterogeneous Ecosystem Energy‐balance Study Enabled by a High‐density Extensive Array of Detectors 2019 (CHEESEHEAD19) field campaign. Our findings reveal distinct scale distributions of LE, , and at 100 m height, with a majority scale range of 120 m–4 km in LE, 32 m–2 km in , and 200 m–8 km in . The scales are classified into three scale ranges, the turbulent scale (8–200 m), large‐eddy scale (200 m–2 km), and mesoscale (2–8 km) to evaluate scale‐resolved LE contributed by and . The large‐eddy scale in PBL contributes over 70% of the monthly mean total LE with equal parts (50%) of contributions from and . The monthly temporal variations mainly come from the first two major contributing classified scales in LE, , and . These results confirm the dominant role of the large‐eddy scale in the PBL in the vertical moisture transport from the surface to the PBL, while the mesoscale is shown to contribute an additional ∼20%. This analysis complements published scale‐dependent LE variations, which lack detailed scale‐dependent vertical velocity and moisture information.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

DOE OSTI2022

Thermal performance sensitivity to radial power flattening considerations in Nuclear Thermal Propulsion Reactors

Nuclear thermal propulsion is currently being developed for manned Mars and Lunar missions by the National Aeronautics and Space Administration due to its increased specific impulse and significant thrust to reduce the total trip time and cost of deep space missions. To maximize the performance of the engine the exit hydrogen propellant temperature should, ideally, be uniformly distributed among all the fuel elements. Uniform exit temperatures imply that the power must be flattened as much as possible. This paper leverages decoupled neutronic and thermal-hydraulic models to assess the thermal performance and reactivity tradeoffs associated with flattening the radial power distribution by adjusting the fuel kernel loading for each fuel element within the core. The results suggest that a uniform radial power distribution for a single control drum position will not necessarily yield an optimal core design due to the higher variance in power and thus maximum fuel and exit propellant temperature as the control drums rotate out during operation. The results presented here only point to the design characteristics be considered when core-level multi-physics simulations are applied in the context of a specific mission. (authors)

21 SPECIFIC NUCLEAR REACTORS AND ASSOCIATED PLANTS↗

DOE OSTI2023

Effects of Cinnamomum camphora coppice planting on soil fertility, microbial community structure and enzyme activity in subtropical China

Cinnamomum camphora ( C. camphora ) is a broad-leaved evergreen tree cultivated in subtropical China. Currently, the use of C. camphora clonal cuttings for coppice management has become popular. However, the effects of C. camphora coppice planting on soil abiotic and biotic variances remained unclear. In this study, we collected soil from three points in the seven-year C. camphora coppice planting land: under the tree canopy (P15), between trees (P50), and abandoned land (Control) to investigate the effects of C. camphora coppice planting on soil fertility, microbial community structure and enzyme activity. The results revealed that C. camphora coppice planting significantly increased soil fertility in the point under the tree canopy (P15) and point between trees (P50), and P15 had more significant effects than P50. Meanwhile, in P15 and P50, soil bacterial, fungal alpha-diversity were improved and microbial community structures were also changed. And the changes of soil organic carbon and total nitrogen promote the transformation of soil bacterial, fungal community structures, respectively. In addition, C. camphora coppice planting significantly ( p < 0.05) increased soil urease (UE), polyphenol oxidase, and peroxidase activities, while significantly decreased soil ACP activity. This study demonstrated that the C. camphora coppice planting could improve soil fertility in subtropical China, which promoted the transformation of soil microbial community from oligotrophs ( K -strategist) to copiotrophs ( r -strategist). Thus, this work can provide a theoretical basis for soil nutrient variation and productive management of C. camphora coppice plantation in subtropical China.

Sun, Luyuan↗

DOE OSTI2022

Fast-neutron-induced fission of Pu 240 and Pu 242

Herein we report the measurement of the total kinetic energy (TKE) release in the fast neutron induced fission of 240 Pu and 242 Pu. The results are compared to the predictions of the GEF model, the CGMF model, and the model of Denisov and Sedykh as well as previous exptl. work on these reactions. Our absolute measurements of the TKE release are in good agreement with the previous measurements of Nethaway et al. for the interaction of 14.8 MeV neutrons with 240 Pu [Phys. Rev. C16, 1907 (1977)] and of Winkelmann and Aumann for the interaction of 15 MeV neutrons with 242 Pu [Phys. Rev. C30, 934 (1984)]. The general trends of the measured TKE values agree with phenomenol. models but the variances of the TKE distributions are significantly less than predicted by various models. The mean postneutron emission TKE release decreases nonlinearly with increasing neutron energy and can be represented as TKE(MeV) = 175.8 ± 0.3 - (2.4 ± 0.8) lo g 10 E n - (1.4 ± 0.4) lo g 10 $E^{2}_{n}$ for 240 Pu and TKE(MeV) = 177.1 ± 0.3 - (1.2 ± 0.9) lo g 10 E n - (1.8 ± 0.5)lo g 10 $E_{n}^{2}$ for 242 Pu.

73 NUCLEAR PHYSICS AND RADIATION PHYSICS↗

DOE OSTI2023

CATS: The Hubble Constant from Standardized TRGB and Type Ia Supernova Measurements

The tip of the red giant branch (TRGB) provides a luminous standard candle for constructing distance ladders to measure the Hubble constant. In practice, its measurements via edge-detection response (EDR) are complicated by the apparent fuzziness of the tip and the multipeak landscape of the EDR. Previously, we optimized an unsupervised algorithm, Comparative Analysis of TRGBs, to minimize the variance among multiple halo fields per host without relying on individualized choices, achieving state-of-the-art ~<0.05 mag distance measures for optimal data. Here we apply this algorithm to an expanded sample of SN Ia hosts to standardize these to multiple fields in the geometric anchor, NGC 4258. In concert with the Pantheon+ SN Ia sample, this analysis produces a (baseline) result of H 0 = 73.22 ± 2.06 km s -1 Mpc -1 . The largest difference in H 0 between this and similar studies employing the TRGB derives from corrections for SN survey differences and local flows used in the most recent SN Ia compilations that were absent in earlier studies. The SN-related differences total ~2.0 km s -1 Mpc -1 . A smaller share, ~1.4 km s -1 Mpc -1 , results from the inhomogeneity of the TRGB calibration across the distance ladder. We employ a grid of 108 variants around the optimal TRGB algorithm and find that the median of the variants is 72.94 ± 1.98 km s -1 Mpc -1 with an additional uncertainty due to algorithm choices of 0.83 km s -1 Mpc -1 . None of these TRGB variants result in an H 0 of less than 71.6 km s -1 Mpc -1 .

79 ASTRONOMY AND ASTROPHYSICS↗

DOE OSTI2025

Requirements on the gain calibration for LiteBIRD polarisation data with blind component separation

The detection of primordial B modes of the cosmic microwave background (CMB) could provide information about the early stages of the Universe's evolution. The faintness of this signal requires exquisite calibration accuracy and control of instrumental systematic effects which otherwise could bias the measurements. In this work, we study the impact of an imperfect relative polarisation gain calibration on the recovered value of the tensor-to-scalar ratio r for the LiteBIRD experiment, through the application of the blind Needlet Internal Linear Combination (NILC) foreground-cleaning method. We derive requirements on the relative calibration accuracy of the overall polarisation gain (Δg ν ) for each LiteBIRD frequency channel. Our results show that minimum variance techniques, as NILC, are less sensitive to systematic gain calibration uncertainties compared to a parametric approach, if the latter is not equipped with a proper modelling of these instrumental effects. In this study, the most stringent requirements are found in the channels where the CMB signal is relatively brighter, with the tightest constraints at 166 GHz (Δg ν ≈ 0.16%). This differs from the outcome of an analogous analysis performed with a parametric method, where the tightest requirements are obtained for the foreground-dominated channels. Gain calibration uncertainties, corresponding to the derived requirements, are then simultaneously propagated into all frequency channels. By doing so, we find that the overall impact on estimated r is lower than the total gain systematic budget for LiteBIRD approximately by a factor 5, due to the correlations of the impacts of gain calibration uncertainties in different frequency channels. In order to decouple the systematic effect from the specific choice of the model, we derive the requirements assuming constant spectral parameters for the foreground emission. To assess the robustness of the obtained results against more realistic scenarios, we repeat the analysis assuming sky models of intermediate and high complexity. In these further cases, we adopt an optimised NILC pipeline, called the Multi-Clustering NILC (MC-NILC). We find that the impact of gain calibration uncertainties on r is lower than the LiteBIRD gain systematics budget for the intermediate-complexity sky model. For the high-complexity case, instead, it would be necessary to tighten the requirements by a factor 1.8.

79 ASTRONOMY AND ASTROPHYSICS↗

NASA NTRS1994

Separation of lithospheric, external, and core components of the south polar geomagnetic field at satellite altitudes

We present a new approach to producing scalar Magsat magnetic anomaly maps based on correlation coefficient filtering and the use of almost all of the available orbits. Our method differs from earlier techniques with respect to the following: (1) Passes are selected based on their variance properties rather than planetary indices such as Kp. (2) The core field model is least squares fit to individual passes and subsequently removed instead of substracting the model directly. This technique replaces band pass filtering or polynomial trend removal methods. (3) Each selected pass is sorted geographically and by local time, placed into one of four different altitude bands, and correlation coefficient filtered with the two adjacent passes. The filtering is the second step toward isolating the static lithospheric signal from the more dynamic external field signals. (4) Least squares collocation is used to grid the correlated passes; subsequently, the dawn and dusk maps are also correlation filtered providing another step toward removal of external fields. (5) The four resultant total field maps are continued to a common altitude and again correlation filtered for the static lithospheric anomalies. (6) The filtered results are then averaged together to provide a new total field map of the lithosphere south of 40 deg S latitude. Our total field map differs from previous efforts over the crustal blocks of West Antarctica. We obtained a positive anomaly over Edward VII Peninsula, extending into the Byrd subglacial basin and obtained a negative anomaly over the Ellsworth Mountains and parts of the Byrd subglacial basin. Also, a positive anomaly extending from the Ross Sea to offshore Wilkes Land is present in our map; however, this feature is absent in other maps. Positive anomalies marking the Weddell Sea in previous efforts are not present in our map. Prominent external field anomalies in the quadrant offshore of Wilkes Land are present in all previous efforts; however, these signatures are reduced in our total field map. This map significantly advances efforts for the identification and interpretation of magnetic anomalies of the south polar lithosphere.

Alsdorf, Douglas E.↗

DOE OSTI2026

Arm and shoulder muscle segmentation in axial MRI with UNet deep learning model

Quantifying individual upper-limb muscle volumes from MRI provides key insight into muscle-specific strength, deficits, and adaptations. Manual delineation is the gold standard but time‑intensive, and the performance of current deep learning approaches, particularly for small or anatomically complex muscles, remains incompletely characterized. We evaluated a state‑of‑the‑art deep learning framework across the entire upper limb and analyzed factors governing segmentation performance, with attention to the forearm. Three previously published MRI datasets (1.5 T, 3D GRE T1‑weighted; total n = 39) spanning young, middle‑aged, and older adults were curated and quality‑checked, including expert manual segmentations for 31 muscles. Following multiclass mask reconstruction, we trained three 3D nnU‑Net multiclass models matched to the muscle subsets present across datasets, using five‑fold cross‑validation and a composite Dice Similarity Coefficient (DSC) + cross entropy loss. Segmentation accuracy was assessed with DSC. Performance varied across muscles (mean DSC = 0.806 ± 0.098), ranging from 0.920 (Deltoid) to 0.461 (Extensor pollicis brevis). In uncertainty‑weighted regressions, muscle volume was positively associated with DSC (R2 = 0.36, p < 0.001), whereas training segmentation count and muscle orientation showed negligible associations (R2 ≤ 0.06). A weighted mixed‑effects model identified volume as the strongest evaluated predictor, explaining 23.9% of variance in DSC; orientation and training count each contributed <1%, leaving 61.5% unexplained. These results indicate that deep learning–based segmentation can accurately quantify muscle volume for many upper‑limb muscles but remains constrained for small, low‑contrast forearm muscles.

Gillespie, Samuel↗

NASA NTRS2003

Balance in a rotating artificial gravity environment

When subjects stand at the center of a fully enclosed room that is rotating at constant velocity, their natural postural sway generates Coriolis forces that destabilize their center of mass and head. We quantitatively assessed how exposure to constant velocity rotation at 10 rpm affected postural control. Twelve subjects stood in a heel-to-toe stance in the rotating room. Each test session involved three phases: (1) pre-rotation, (2) per-rotation, and (3) post-rotation. In each phase, subjects were tested in both eyes open and eyes closed conditions. Four measures were used to characterize center of mass movement and head movement: mean sway amplitude, total power, mean power frequency, and frequency of maximum power. Each measure was computed for anterior-posterior and medial-lateral sway. Both anterior-posterior and medial-lateral head and center of mass sway during rotation had significantly greater mean sway amplitude and total power compared with pre- and post-rotation values. Mean power frequency and frequency of maximum power were little affected. Eyes open conditions were significantly more stable in all test phases than eyes-closed, but vision did not completely suppress the effects of rotation. The greatest effect of rotation was in the eyes-closed condition with mean sway amplitude and total power increasing more than twofold. Inverted pendulum sway was maintained in all phases of both test conditions. No aftereffects of rotation were present after the four 25-s exposures each subject received. We expect that with longer exposure periods and with active generation of body sway subjects would both adapt to rotation and exhibit post-rotary aftereffects.

NASA Discipline Neuroscience↗

NASA NTRS1990

Microbiological methods for the water recovery systems test, revision 1.1

Current microbiological parameters specified to verify microbiological quality of Space Station Freedom water quality include the enumeration of total bacteria, anaerobes, aerobes, yeasts and molds, enteric bacteria, gram positives, gram negatives, and E. coli. In addition, other parameters have been identified as necessary to support the Water Recovery Test activities to be conducted at the NASA/MSFC later this year. These other parameters include aerotolerant eutrophic mesophiles, legionellae, and an additional method for heterotrophic bacteria. If inter-laboratory data are to be compared to evaluate quality, analytical methods must be eliminated as a variable. Therefore, each participating laboratory must utilize the same analytical methods and procedures. Without this standardization, data can be neither compared nor validated between laboratories. Multiple laboratory participation represents a conservative approach to insure quality and completeness of data. Invariably, sample loss will occur in transport and analyses. Natural variance is a reality on any test of this magnitude and is further enhanced because biological entities, capable of growth and death, are specific parameters of interest. The large variation due to the participation of human test subjects has been noted with previous testing. The resultant data might be dismissed as 'out of control' unless intra-laboratory control is included as part of the method or if participating laboratories are not available for verification. The purpose of this document is to provide standardized laboratory procedures for the enumeration of certain microorganisms in water and wastewater specific to the water recovery systems test. The document consists of ten separate cultural methods and one direct count procedure. It is not intended nor is it implied to be a complete microbiological methods manual.

Rhoads, Tim↗

NASA NTRS1999

Measuring Greenland Ice Mass Variation With Gravity Recovery and the Climate Experiment Gravity and GPS

The response of the Greenland ice sheet to climate change could significantly alter sea level. The ice sheet was much thicker at the last glacial maximum. To gain insight into the global change process and the future trend, it is important to evaluate the ice mass variation as a function of time and space. The Gravity Recovery and Climate Experiment (GRACE) mission to fly in 2001 for 5 years will measure gravity changes associated with the current ice variation and the solid earth's response to past variations. Our objective is to assess the separability of different change sources, accuracy and resolution in the mass variation determination by the new gravity data and possible Global Positioning System (GPS) bedrock uplift measurements. We use a reference parameter state that follows a dynamic ice model for current mass variation and a variant of the Tushingham and Peltier ICE-3G deglaciation model for historical deglaciation. The current linear trend is also assumed to have started 5 kyr ago. The Earth model is fixed as preliminary reference Earth model (PREM) with four viscoelastic layers. A discrete Bayesian inverse algorithm is developed employing an isotropic Gaussian a priori covariance function over the ice sheet and time. We use data noise predicted by the University of Texas and JPL for major GRACE error sources. A 2 mm/yr uplift uncertainty is assumed for GPS occupation time of 5 years. We then carry out covariance analysis and inverse simulation using GRACE geoid coefficients up to degree 180 in conjunction with a number of GPS uplift rates. Present-day ice mass variation and historical deglaciation are solved simultaneously over 146 grids of roughly 110 km x 110 km and with 6 time increments of 3 kyr each, along with a common starting epoch of the current trend. For present-day ice thickness change, the covariance analysis using GRACE geoid data alone results in a root mean square (RMS) posterior root variance of 2.6 cm/yr, with fairly large a priori uncertainties in the parameters and a Gaussian correlation length of 350 km. Simulated inverse can successfully recover most features in the reference present-day change. The RMS difference between them over the grids is 2.8 cm/yr. The RMS difference becomes 1.1 cm/yr when both are averaged with a half Gaussian wavelength of 150 km. With a fixed Earth model, GRACE alone can separate the geoid signals due to past and current load fairly well. Shown are the reference geoid signatures of direct and elastic effects of the current trend, the viscoelastic effect of the same trend starting from 5 kyr ago, the Post Glacial Rebound (PGR), and the predicted GRACE geoid error. The difference between the reference and inverse modeled total viscoelastic signatures is also shown. Although past and current ice mass variations are allowed the same spatial scale, their geoid signals have different spatial patterns. GPS data can contribute to the ice mass determination as well. Additional information is contained in the original.

Wu, Xiao-Ping↗

DOE OSTI2025

Study of $\langle {p}_{\text{T}}\rangle$ and its higher moments, and extraction of the speed of sound in Pb-Pb collisions with ALICE

Ultrarelativistic heavy-ion collisions produce a state of hot and dense strongly interacting QCD matter called quark-gluon plasma (QGP). On an event-by-event basis, the volume of the QGP in ultracentral collisions is mostly constant, while its total entropy can vary significantly due to quantum fluctuations, leading to variations in the temperature of the system. Exploiting this unique feature of ultracentral collisions allows for the interpretation of the correlation of the mean transverse momentum ($\langle$p T $\rangle$) of produced charged hadrons and the number of charged hadrons as a measure for the speed of sound, c s . This speed is related to the rate at which compression waves travel in the QGP and is determined by fitting the relative increase in $\langle$p T $\rangle$ with respect to the relative change in the average charged-particle density ($\langle$dN ch /dη$\rangle$) measured at mid-rapidity. This study reports the event-average $\langle$p T $\rangle$ of charged particles as well as the variance, skewness, and kurtosis of the event-by-event transverse momentum per charged particle ([p T ]) distribution in ultracentral Pb-Pb collisions at a center-of-mass energy of 5.02 TeV per nucleon pair using the ALICE detector. Different centrality estimators based on charged-particle multiplicity or the transverse energy of the event are used to select ultracentral collisions. By ensuring a pseudorapidity gap between the region used to define the centrality and the region used to perform the measurement, the influence of biases and their potential effects on the rise of the mean transverse momentum is tested. The measured c$^{2}_{s}$ is found to strongly depend on the exploited centrality estimator and ranges between 0.1146±0.0028 (stat.)±0.0065 (syst.) and 0.4374±0.0006 (stat.)±0.0184 (syst.) in natural units. The self-normalized variance shows a steep decrease towards ultracentral collisions, while the self-normalized skewness variables show a maximum, followed by a fast decrease. These non-Gaussian features are understood in terms of the vanishing of the impact-parameter fluctuations contributing to the event-to-event [p T ] distribution.

73 NUCLEAR PHYSICS AND RADIATION PHYSICS↗

NASA NTRS1997

Evolution of Structure in the Intergalactic Medium and the Nature of the LY-Alpha Forest

We have performed a detailed statistical study of the evolution of structure in a photoionized intergalactic medium (IGM) using analytical simulations to extend the calculation into the mildly nonlinear density regime found to prevail at z = 3. Our work is based on a simple fundamental conjecture: that the probability distribution function of the density of baryonic diffuse matter in the universe is described by a lognormal (LN) random field. The LN distribution has several attractive features and follows plausibly from the assumption of initial linear Gaussian density and velocity fluctuations at arbitrarily early times. Starting with a suitably normalized power spectrum of primordial fluctuations in a universe dominated by cold dark matter (CDM), we compute the behavior of the baryonic matter, which moves slowly toward minima in the dark matter potential on scales larger than the Jeans length. We have computed two models that succeed in matching observations. One is a nonstandard CDM model with OMEGA = 1, h = 0.5, and GAMMA = 0.3, and the other is a low-density flat model with a cosmological constant (LCDM), with OMEGA = 0.4, OMEGA(sub LAMBDA) = 0.6, and h = 0.65. In both models, the variance of the density distribution function grows with time, reaching unity at about z = 4, where the simulation yields spectra that closely resemble the Ly-alpha forest absorption seen in the spectra of high-z quasars. The calculations also successfully predict the observed properties of the Ly-alpha forest clouds and their evolution from z = 4 down to at least z = 2, assuming a constant intensity for the metagalactic UV background over this redshift range. However, in our model the forest is not due to discrete clouds, but rather to fluctuations in a continuous intergalactic medium. At z = 3; typical clouds with measured neutral hydrogen column densities N(sub H I) = 10(exp 13.3), 10(exp 13.5), and 10(exp 11.5) /sq cm correspond to fluctuations with mean total densities approximately 10, 1, and 0.1 times the universal mean baryon density. Perhaps surprisingly, fluctuations whose amplitudes are less than or equal to the mean density still appear as "clouds" because in our model more than 70% of the volume of the IGM at z = 3 is filled with gas at densities below the mean value.

Bi, Hongguang↗

NASA NTRS1990

A system performance throughput model applicable to advanced manned telescience systems

As automated space systems become more complex, autonomous, and opaque to the flight crew, it becomes increasingly difficult to determine whether the total system is performing as it should. Some of the complex and interrelated human performance measurement issues are addressed that are related to total system validation. An evaluative throughput model is presented which can be used to generate a human operator-related benchmark or figure of merit for a given system which involves humans at the input and output ends as well as other automated intelligent agents. The concept of sustained and accurate command/control data information transfer is introduced. The first two input parameters of the model involve nominal and off-nominal predicted events. The first of these calls for a detailed task analysis while the second is for a contingency event assessment. The last two required input parameters involving actual (measured) events, namely human performance and continuous semi-automated system performance. An expression combining these four parameters was found using digital simulations and identical, representative, random data to yield the smallest variance.

Haines, Richard F.↗

NASA NTRS2006

Application of the Convolution Formalism to the Ocean Tide Potential: Results from the Gravity and Recovery and Climate Experiment (GRACE)

A computationally efficient approach to reducing omission errors in ocean tide potential models is derived and evaluated using data from the Gravity Recovery and Climate Experiment (GRACE) mission. Ocean tide height models are usually explicitly available at a few frequencies, and a smooth unit response is assumed to infer the response across the tidal spectrum. The convolution formalism of Munk and Cartwright (1966) models this response function with a Fourier series. This allows the total ocean tide height, and therefore the total ocean tide potential, to be modeled as a weighted sum of past, present, and future values of the tide-generating potential. Previous applications of the convolution formalism have usually been limited to tide height models, but we extend it to ocean tide potential models. We use luni-solar ephemerides to derive the required tide-generating potential so that the complete spectrum of the ocean tide potential is efficiently represented. In contrast, the traditionally adopted harmonic model of the ocean tide potential requires the explicit sum of the contributions from individual tidal frequencies. It is therefore subject to omission errors from neglected frequencies and is computationally more intensive. Intersatellite range rate data from the GRACE mission are used to compare convolution and harmonic models of the ocean tide potential. The monthly range rate residual variance is smaller by 4-5%, and the daily residual variance is smaller by as much as 15% when using the convolution model than when using a harmonic model that is defined by twice the number of parameters.

models↗

DOE OSTI2021

A comparative study of machine learning models for predicting the state of reactive mixing

Mixing phenomena are important mechanisms controlling flow, species transport, and reaction processes in fluids and porous media. Accurate predictions of reactive mixing are critical for many Earth and environmental science problems such as contaminant fate and remediation, macroalgae growth, and plankton biomass evolution. Here, to investigate the evolution of mixing dynamics under different scenarios (e.g., anisotropy, fluctuating velocity fields), a finite-element-based numerical model was built to solve the fast, irreversible bimolecular reaction-diffusion equations to simulate a range of reactive-mixing scenarios. A total of 2,315 simulations were performed using different sets of model input parameters comprising various spatial scales of vortex structures in the velocity field, time-scales associated with velocity oscillations, the perturbation parameter for the vortex-based velocity, anisotropic dispersion contrast (i.e., ratio of longitudinal-to-transverse dispersion), and molecular diffusion. The outputs comprised concentration profiles of reactants and products. The inputs to and outputs from these simulations were concatenated into feature and label matrices, respectively, to train 20 different machine learning (ML) models intended to emulate system behavior. These 20 ML emulators, based on linear methods, Bayesian methods, ensemble learning methods, and multilayer perceptrons (MLPs), were trained to classify the state of mixing and predict three quantities of interest (QoIs) characterizing species production, decay (i.e., average concentration, square of average concentration), and degree of mixing (i.e., variances of species concentration). Unsurprisingly, linear classifiers and regressors failed to reproduce the QoIs; however, ensemble methods (classifiers and regressors) and the MLP model accurately classified the state of reactive mixing and the QoIs. Among ensemble methods, random forest and decision-tree-based AdaBoost faithfully predicted the QoIs. At run time, trained ML emulators produced results times faster than the finite-element simulations. Due to their low computational expense and high accuracy, ensemble and MLP models are excellent emulators for these numerical simulations and great utilities in uncertainty quantification exercises, which can require 1,000s of forward model runs.

97 MATHEMATICS AND COMPUTING↗

NASA NTRS1993

Transport and residence times of tropospheric aerosols inferred from a global three-dimensional simulation of Pb-210

A global three-dimensional model is used to investigate the transport and tropospheric residence time of Pb-210, an aerosol tracer produced in the atmosphere by radioactive decay of Rn-222 emitted from soils. The model uses meteorological input with 4 deg x 5 deg horizontal resolution and 4-hour temporal resolution from the Goddard Institute for Space Studies general circulation model (GCM). It computes aerosol scavenging by convective precipitation as part of the wet convective mass transport operator in order to capture the coupling between vertical transport and rainout. Scavenging in convective precipitation accounts for 74% of the global Pb-210 sink in the model; scavenging in large-scale precipitation accounts for 12%, and scavenging in dry deposition accounts for 14%. The model captures 63% of the variance of yearly mean Pb-210 concentrations measured at 85 sites around the world with negligible mean bias, lending support to the computation of aerosol scavenging. There are, however, a number of regional and seasonal discrepancies that reflect in part anomalies in GCM precipitation. Computed residence times with respect to deposition for Pb-210 aerosol in the tropospheric column are about 5 days at southern midlatitudes and 10-15 days in the tropics; values at northern midlatitudes vary from about 5 days in winter to 10 days in summer. The residence time of Pb-210 produced in the lowest 0.5 km of atmosphere is on average four times shorter than that of Pb-210 produced in the upper atmosphere. Both model and observations indicate a weaker decrease of Pb-210 concentrations between the continental mixed layer and the free troposphere than is observed for total aerosol concentrations; an explanation is that Rn-222 is transported to high altitudes in wet convective updrafts, while aerosols and soluble precursors of aerosols are scavenged by precipitation in the updrafts. Thus Pb-210 is not simply a tracer of aerosols produced in the continental boundary layer, but also of aerosols derived from insoluble precursors emitted from the surface of continents. One may draw an analogy between Pb-210 and nitrate, whose precursor NO(sub x) is sparingly soluble, and explain in this manner the strong correlation observed between nitrate and Pb-210 concentrations over the oceans.

Balkanski, Yves J.↗