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DOE OSTI2025

CASM Monte Carlo: Calculations of the thermodynamic and kinetic properties of complex multicomponent crystals

Monte Carlo techniques play a central role in statistical mechanics approaches that connect macroscopic thermodynamic and kinetic properties to the electronic structure of a material. This paper describes the implementation of Monte Carlo techniques for the study of multicomponent crystalline materials within the Clusters Approach to Statistical Mechanics (CASM) software suite, and demonstrates their use in model systems to calculate free energies and kinetic coefficients, study phase transitions, and construct phase diagrams from first principles. Many crystal structures are complex, with multiple sublattices occupied by differing sets of chemical species, along with the presence of vacancies or interstitial species. This imposes constraints on concentration variables, the form of thermodynamic potentials, and the values of kinetic transport coefficients. The framework used by CASM to formulate thermodynamic potentials and kinetic transport coefficients accounting for arbitrarily complex crystal structures is presented and demonstrated with examples of increasing complexity. Additionally, an overview of the capabilities of the CASM software specific to Monte Carlo methods is given, and a new CASM software package is introduced, casm-flow, which helps automate the setup, submission, management, and analysis of Monte Carlo simulations.

Cluster expansion↗
DOE OSTI2026

In-Situ Visualization of a Growing Brittle Crack in Aluminum Oxynitride Using Synchrotron X-Rays and the Double-Cleavage Drilled Compression Geometry

Brittle fracture is difficult to study in situ due to the speed of a growing crack and the often-catastrophic nature of failure in brittle materials. As a result, the influence of microstructural considerations, such as orientation, grain boundary locations, and strain field, on the crack path remains poorly understood. Presented in this study is a method addressing this knowledge gap, which utilizes the double-cleavage drilled compression geometry to achieve quasi-stable fracture in aluminum oxynitride (AlON). Synchrotron X-ray micro-computed tomography is used to characterize the crack shape and length, while high-energy diffraction microscopy provides information on the strains, orientations, and shapes of grains in the microstructure surrounding the crack tip. During testing, the crack grew in discrete and irregular jumps while the fracture toughness falls within reported ranges. The crack in AlON is found to have no greater tendency to crack intergranularly as compared to transgranularly, and grains which are cracked transgranularly do not display a trend in orientation or stress when compared to those around which the crack followed a grain boundary. The high resolution of the crack path and microstructural data provides a path forward for modeling and understanding 3D brittle fracture.

Gorske, Sara F.↗
DOE OSTI1991

Nuclear Safety [Vol. 32, No. 1, January-March 1991]

Nuclear Safety is a review journal that covers significant developments in the field of nuclear safety. Its scope includes the analysis and control of hazards associated with nuclear energy, operations involving fissionable materials, and the products of nuclear fission and their effects on the environment. Primary emphasis is on safety in reactor design, construction, and operation; however, the safety aspects of the entire fuel cycle, including fuel fabrication, spent-fuel processing, nuclear waste disposal, handling of radioisotopes, and environmental effects of these operations, are also treated. Table of Contents for this issue follows. GENERAL SAFETY CONSIDERATIONS: 1 The Safety Review and Approval Process for Space Nuclear Power Sources, G. L. Bennett; 19 Report on the American Nuclear Society International Topical Meeting: "The Safety, Status, and Future of Non-Commercial Reactors and Irradiation Facilities", E. G. Silver; 35 Book Review: Fission Product Transport Processes in Reactor Accidents, Proceedings to the International Centre tor Heat and Mass Processes T. S. Kress; 38 Fast Reactor Technology in the 1990s: A Summary of the 1990 International Fast Reactor Safety Meeting, A. E. Levin; ACCIDENT ANALYSIS: 56 Effects of Chemical Phenomena on LWR Severe Accident Fission Product Behavior, A. P. Malinauskas and T. S. Kress; CONTROL AND INSTRUMENTATION: 65 Technical Note: Safety Parameter Display Systems—10 Years Later, R. J. Eckenrode; 68 Potential Application of Neural Networks to the Operation of Nuclear Power Plants, R. E. Uhrig; DESIGN FEATURES: 80 Twenty-First DOE/NRC Nuclear Air-Cleaning Conference, R. R. Bellamy, D. W. Moeller, and M. W. First; 91 Impact of an Apparent Radiation Embrittlement Rate on the Life Expectancy of PWR Vessel Supports, R. D. Cheverton, G. C. Robinson, W. E. Pennell, and R. K. Nanstad; ENVIRONMENTAL EFFECTS: 103 Technical Note: The Impact of Offsite Factors on the Safety Performance of Small Nuclear Power Plants, Yu. D. Baranaev and A. N. Viktorov; WASTE AND SPENT FUEL MANAGEMENT: 109 Activities Related to Waste Management, Compiled by E. G. Silver; OPERATING EXPERIENCES: 118 Reactor Shutdown Experience, Compiled by J. W. Cletcher; 121 Selected Safety-Related Events, Compiled by G. A. Murphy; 123 Operating U.S. Power Reactors, Compiled by E. G. Silver; RECENT DEVELOPMENTS: 140 General Administrative Activities, Compiled by E. G. Silver; 150 Reports, Standards, and Safety Guides, D. S. Queener; 155 Status of Power-Reactor Licensing Activities, Compiled by E. G. Silver; 157 Proposed Rule Changes as of Sept. 30, 1990; ANNOUNCEMENTS: 79 MIT Offers Summer Program on Nuclear Power Reactor Safety; 108 Harvard School of Public Health Offers Several Short Courses; 139 Short Course and Workshop on Nuclear Criticality Safety at University of New Mexico; 160 SCK/CEN Announces Training Course on Emergency Planning and Response; 161 The Authors; 164 Indexes to Nuclear Safety, Volume 31

11 NUCLEAR FUEL CYCLE AND FUEL MATERIALS↗
DOE OSTI2024

Benchmarking of ENDF/B-VIII.1 Thermal Scattering Library for Hydrogen

In correctly characterizing the energy and momentum transfer at thermal and cold energies between neutrons and its interacting medium, thermal scattering libraries, which details energy states due to the intra- and inter-molecular bond effects for the medium materials, are applied in place of free-gas cross section libraries in a particle transport simulation code. They are essential to the neutron performance of a neutron facility like SNS, where thermalized neutrons from 20 K liquid hydrogen and ambient (~300 K) water are transported to the beamlines for neutron scattering experiments in studying materials. Recently, a new version of thermal scattering library for parahydrogen and orthohydrogen at 14-20 K was developed and to be released in ENDF/B-VIII.1. It is, therefore, important to benchmark its impacts on the prediction of moderator performance due to the updates in the thermal scattering library. In this study, the recent ENDF/B-VIII.1 thermal scattering library was compared to the current ENDF/B-VII.1 one in the neutron performance calculations for the decoupled and coupled hydrogen moderators at SNS under theorized and real working conditions. In addition, the predictions using both thermal scattering libraries were benchmarked to the measurements of moderator performance. The consistency between the libraries was observed mostly for parahydrogen and the difference in orthohydrogen at cold neutron energies was noted.

Lu, Wei [Oak Ridge National Laboratory (ORNL), Oak↗
DOE OSTI2026

Interactions Between Climate Policy and Technology-influenced Travel Behavior: Mitigating Induced Demand from CACC

Advances in vehicle technology have influenced the development of automated vehicle systems, where vehicles that do not require human intervention are already deployed in the roadway networks. While these advances are proved to increase roadway safety and highway capacity, more research is needed to understand the long-term and regional-level impacts on mobility, land use, energy consumption, and emissions. This study proposes a multi-model approach to analyze the effect of vehicle automation and deep decarbonization policies over a period from 2020 to 2040 in Austin, Texas. We use the Global Change Analysis Model (GCAM) to develop internally the scenarios that are then passed to the SMART Mobility modeling workflow, a large-scale simulation framework combining the POLARIS activity-based travel demand model and mesoscopic traffic simulator with the Autonomie vehicle energy consumption model and the UrbanSim land use simulator. Results suggest that the introduction of vehicles with advanced automation could increase fuel consumption when no decarbonization policies are implemented. Also, advances in vehicle technology research and development could lead to a decline in energy use in the long-term. Energy pricing and vehicle electrification incentives could help reduce the impact of vehicle automation. Finally, our analysis indicates the relevance of introducing land use processes in longterm vehicle automation studies.

land use↗
DOE OSTI2025

Microbial Enrichments Contribute to Characterization Of Desert Tortoise Gut Microbiota

Abstract Desert tortoises play ecologically significant roles, including plant seed dispersal and mineral cycling, and yet little is known about microbial members that are critical to their gut and overall health. Tortoises consume recalcitrant plant material, which their gut microbiota degrades and converts into usable metabolites and nutrients for the tortoise. Findings from tortoise gut microbiomes may translate well into biotechnological applications as these microbes have evolved to efficiently degrade recalcitrant substrates and generate useful products. In this study, we cultivated microbial communities from desert tortoise fecal samples following a targeted anaerobic enrichment for microbes involved in deconstruction and utilization of plant biomass. We employed 16S rRNA amplicon sequencing to compare cultivated communities to initial fecal source material and found high abundances of Firmicutes and Bacteroidota typically associated with biomass deconstruction in all cultivated samples. Significantly decreased microbial diversity was observed in the cultivated microbial communities, yet several key taxa thrived in lignocellulose enrichments, includingLachnospiraceaeandEnterococcus. Additionally, cultivated communities produced short-chain fatty acids under anaerobic conditions, and their growth and metabolic output provide evidence of their viability in the initial fecal communities. Overall, this study adds to the limited understanding of reptilian herbivore microbiota, and offers a path towards biotechnological translation based on the ability of the cultivated communities to convert lignocellulose directly to acetate, propionate, and butyrate.

Environmental Sciences & Ecology↗
DOE OSTI1989

Nuclear Safety [Vol. 30, No. 3, July-September 1989]

Nuclear Safety is a review journal that covers significant developments in the field of nuclear safety. Its scope includes the analysis and control of hazards associated with nuclear energy, operations involving fissionable materials, and the products of nuclear fission and their effects on the environment. Primary emphasis is on safety in reactor design, construction, and operation; however, the safety aspects of the entire fuel cycle, including fuel fabrication, spent-fuel processing, nuclear waste disposal, handling of radioisotopes, and environmental effects of these operations, are also treated. Table of Contents for this issue follows. GENERAL SAFETY CONSIDERATIONS: 325 Safety of Framatome Advanced Nuclear Steam Supply Systems Designs by J. A. Charles and D. Lange, 333 Book Review of Nuclear Accidents: Intervention Levels for the Protection of the Public by H. B. Piper; ACCIDENT ANALYSIS: 335 Living PRA Computer Systems by S. C. Dinsmore and H.-P. Balfanz, 343 Summary of ICAP Assessments of RELAP5/MOD2 by W. E. Driskell and R. G. Hanson; CONTROL AND INSTRUMENTATION: 352 Thermal Performance Monitoring System at Maanshan Nuclear Power Plant by H.-J. Chao, Y.-P. Lin, G.-H. Jou, L.-Y. Liao, and Y.-B. Chen; DESIGN FEATURES: 358 Warning Systems for Nuclear Power Plant Emergencies by J. H. Sorensen and D. S. Mileti; WASTE AND SPENT FUEL MANAGEMENT: 371 Activities Related to Waste Management Compiled by E G. Silver; OPERATING EXPERIENCES: 382 Steam Generator Tube Performance: Experience with Water-Cooled Nuclear Power Reactors During 1985 by O. S. Tatone and R. L. Tapping, 400 Systems Interaction Analyses: Concepts and Techniques (Part II) by M. D. Muhlheim and G. A. Murphy, 413 Reactor Shutdown Experience Compiled by J. W. Cletcher, 416 Operating U.S. Power Reactors Compiled by E G. Silver; RECENT DEVELOPMENTS: 440 General Administrative Activities Compiled by E G. Silver, 460 Reports, Standards, and Safety Guides by D. S. Queener, 466 Status of Power-Reactor Licensing Activities Compiled by E G. Silver, 470 Proposed Rule Changes as of Mar. 31, 1989; ANNOUNCEMENTS: 334 Proceedings Published, 351 CEC Seminar on Methods and Codes for Assessing the Off-Site Consequences of Nuclear Accidents, 357 Short Course on Multiphase Flow and Heat Transfer: Bases and Applications in A: The Nuclear Power Industry B: The Process Industries, 357 International Conference on Probabilistic Safety Assessment and Management, 478 International Topical Meeting on the Safety, Status, and Future of Non-Commercial Reactors and Irradiation Facilities, 475 The Authors.

11 NUCLEAR FUEL CYCLE AND FUEL MATERIALS↗
DOE OSTI2026

Estimating Return on Investment for Energy Technical Assistance Programs

The U.S. Department of Energy's Office of State and Community Energy Programs engaged the National Laboratory of the Rockies to assess the return on investment (ROI) of technical assistance (TA) programs that support state, local, and Tribal energy planning. Although TA delivers value through capacity building, stakeholder engagement, and knowledge transfer, these benefits are often intangible and challenging to monetize. This study reviews existing ROI frameworks and synthesizes the most relevant elements into a hybrid approach tailored to energy TA programs. The proposed framework integrates monetary and non-monetary outcomes through early logic model development, baseline data collection, and the use of proxies for intangible benefits. As a case study, this paper applies this approach to the Communities Local Energy Action Program (Communities LEAP), demonstrating how ROI can inform program design, data strategy, and performance assessment. Findings underscore that ROI should be applied selectively and planned from the outset to ensure data alignment and attribution accuracy. The framework offers TA practitioners a structured approach that can be leveraged for future programs to evaluate and communicate the multifaceted value of TA investments.

29 ENERGY PLANNING, POLICY, AND ECONOMY↗
DOE OSTI2025

Chemical Bond Covalency in Superionic Halide Solid‐State Electrolytes

Abstract Halide solid‐state electrolytes (SSEs) are promising superionic conductors with high oxidative stability and ionic conductivity, making them attractive for all‐solid‐state lithium‐ion batteries. However, most studies have focused on ion‐stacking structures, overlooking the role of bond characteristics in ionic transport. Here, we investigate bond dynamics and the superionic transition (SIT) in bromide electrolyte, Li 3 InBr 6 , using synchrotron X‐ray techniques and ab initio molecular dynamics (AIMD) simulations. We demonstrate that the SIT in halide SSEs is driven by a thermally induced transition in bonding character (ionic to covalent) rather than a change in crystal phase. AIMD simulations further reveal enhanced Li⁺ diffusion and collective anion motion at elevated temperatures. Expanding our study to Li 3 LnBr 6 (Ln = Gd, Tb, Ho, Tm, and Lu), we confirm the widespread occurrence of SIT in this material class, with Li 3 GdBr 6 exhibiting the highest ionic conductivity (5.2 mS cm −1 at 298 K). More importantly, the ionic‐covalent transition is highly tunable through electrolyte modifications, such as cation/anion substitution and synthesis methods. Our findings provide a new perspective on ionic transport, highlighting the critical role of chemical bond characteristics in halide SSEs.

Chemistry↗
DOE OSTI2026

Reduced-order CFD modeling of cryogenic hydrogen isotope extrusion for pellet fueling

This study presents a reduced-order model (ROM) for computational fluid dynamics (CFD) simulations of cryogenic hydrogen isotope extrusions, focusing on protium (H₂) and deuterium (D₂) piston extruders. Using a 2D axisymmetric ROM in ANSYS-Polyflow, significant computational savings were achieved (runtime reduced from 9∼24 h to 3∼5 min), with extrusion force discrepancies between the 2D ROM and 3D models being on the order of 1%. Parametric studies identified optimal cutoff shear rates in the viscosity model (0.01/s for H₂ and 0.001/s for D₂), providing recommendations for future simulations. Finally, a comprehensive comparison of ROM results with experimental data was performed across varying geometries, cryogenic materials, temperatures, extrusion lengths, and piston velocities. Predictions at low extrusion temperatures met the objective of providing quick and efficient solutions with an acceptable extrusion force error of approximately 10% or less, validating the effectiveness of the 2D ROM approach. However, at high temperatures closer to the triple point, extrusion force error grows, which necessitates developing an improved model that accounts for temperature effects, e.g. melting. Nevertheless, the findings still represent a significant improvement in efficiency of CFD modeling of cryogenic hydrogenic extrusion. The ROM framework can also be extended to tritium (T2) and screw extruders, which will ultimately provide a fast and effective tool for optimizing pellet injector design for ITER and future reactor systems.

Fan, Joy [ORNL] (ORCID:0000000229751735)↗
DOE OSTI2026

Assessing the Impact of a Forest Canopy on Near-Surface Wind Statistics

Representing the forest canopy in atmospheric numerical models should improve simulated winds within and above the canopy up to a few hundred meters above the ground. Here, in this study, we implement a forest canopy parameterization into the Weather Research and Forecasting (WRF) Model in a large-eddy simulation (LES) mode by applying drag forces across multiple layers within the canopy height. We use unique observations from the Lidar Experiments for Assessing Flow over Forests (LEAFF) field campaign at the Wind River Experimental Forest (WREF) in the U.S. Pacific Northwest to evaluate model performance. In a 2-day case study, the canopy parameterization improved wind predictions both within and above the canopy, particularly during the daytime and at finer grid resolution. Without it, winds were frequently overpredicted above the canopy. Similarly, derived quantities such as the wind shear index also yielded estimates closer to observations with the canopy parameterization implemented. These findings suggest that representing the canopy using drag forces alone can improve simulated mean winds up to 200 m above the surface. Furthermore, second-order statistical moments of wind were more sensitive to canopy density than first-order moments, especially during the daytime. This increased sensitivity and the improved daytime performance in wind speed—evidenced by the lowest bias from observations (3% compared to 20% over diurnal cycle)—imply that winds above the canopy layer are strongly influenced by how well turbulence above the canopy is modeled. The results of this study can serve as a foundation for parameterizing forest canopy effects in coarser weather forecast models.

Energy - Wind↗
DOE OSTI2026

Activating magnetite ores for aqueous ironmaking at high current densities

Low-temperature electrochemical cells reducing iron oxides to metal in alkaline electrolytes can support fully electrified steelmaking processes. Previous studies on these cells have primarily focused on high-surface-area hematite, Fe 2 O 3 , reactants whereas attempts to reduce suspensions of magnetite, Fe 3 O 4 —one of the two feedstocks for existing ironmaking reactors—have generally been limited to low rates of reaction (<30 mA cm −2 ). Here, in this study, we control the crystalline domain size of Fe 2 O 3 and Fe 3 O 4 particles in 10 M NaOH electrolytes to study how the nanoscale morphology of oxides controls the rate of electrochemical ironmaking. Rotating-ring disk electrode measurements of Fe 2+ , in situ Raman spectroscopy of the electrode surface, and ex situ electron microscopy were consistent with a hypothesized passivation process at Fe 3 O 4 surfaces that may prevent the continuous formation of soluble intermediates. Sufficiently small (<100 nm diameter) oxide particles yielded Fe partial current densities >160 mA cm −2 , a fivefold increase relative to previously reported rates for Fe 3 O 4 suspensions and comparable to active Fe 2 O 3 . Electron microscopy revealed that electrodeposited films were composed of micron-scale crystalline Fe domains with a porous film of Fe 3 O 4 nanoparticles and supports a model where Fe is grown primarily from soluble Fe 2+ intermediates. Based on these insights, inactive blast-furnace-grade iron-oxides were transformed into high surface area nanoparticles (1.6 to 229.2 m 2 g −1 ) via reprecipitation, leading to a ninefold enhancement in faradaic efficiency and an Fe partial current density of 120 mA cm −2 . When integrated with chlor-iron cells producing reagents for reprecipitation, this approach could lead to a cost-competitive process for electrochemical ironmaking from industrially relevant feedstocks.

TEM↗
DOE OSTI2025

Thick graded interfaces increase wear resistance in Ti/TiN nanolayered thin films

Multilayered composites with nanoscale layer thickness incorporating titanium and titanium nitride (Ti/TiN) are used as a model system to study the effects of heterophase interface structure on elastic and plastic deformation, as well as wear behavior. Here, in this work, hardness, modulus, and wear rate under dry reciprocating sliding contact are quantified as a function of Ti-TiN heterophase interfacial nitrogen gradient thickness for Ti/TiN multilayers with 10–80 nm layer thickness. Hardness and modulus are found to be inversely proportional to layer thickness and independent of interface gradient for most specimens. Wear rate is found to be inversely proportional to interface gradient thickness at constant layer thickness, demonstrating that control of nanoscale interface structure is a valid approach to enhancing wear behavior. The materials studied in this work wear comparably or slower than other Ti- and TiN-based composites in the literature, providing a promising avenue for engineering wear-resistant materials for use in industrially relevant applications.

Graded interfaces↗
DOE OSTI2026

Magnetism and magnetoelastic effect in the two-dimensional van der Waals multiferroic CuCrP 2 ⁢S 6

Here, we report a magnetic and neutron diffraction study on the ground state magnetism and field evolution of single-crystal van der Waals multiferroic CuCrP 2 ⁢S 6 . The ordered moments align along the 𝑏 axis in the "𝐴-type" antiferromagnetic configuration with a spin-flop transition along the same direction. Field application along 𝑎 introduces a smooth transition to a fully polarized ferromagnetic state via in-plane spin rotation. These findings resolve the ambiguity of the ground state magnetization direction in CuCrP 2 ⁢S 6 and uncover its field responses, providing a firm basis for future magnetoelectric study. A magnetoelastic coupling effect connecting the interlayer spacing and the magnetic order was further revealed, highlighting the out-of-plane strain as an effective control knob for tuning magnetism both in this system and in related van der Waals magnets.

Guo, Jiasen [Oak Ridge National Laboratory (ORNL),↗
DOE OSTI2025

Twist Engineering of Anisotropic Excitonic and Optical Properties of a Two-Dimensional Magnetic Semiconductor

Two-dimensional (2D) van der Waals (vdW) magnetic semiconductors are a new class of quantum materials for studying the emergent physics of excitons and spins in the 2D limit. Twist engineering provides a powerful tool to manipulate the fundamental properties of 2D vdW materials. Here, in this work, we show that twist engineering of the anisotropic ferromagnetic monolayer semiconductor CrSBr leads to bilayer magnetic semiconductors with continuously tunable magnetic moment, dielectric anisotropy, exciton energy, and linear dichroism. We furthermore provide a model for exciton energy in the media with tunable anisotropy. These results advance fundamental studies of 2D vdW materials and open doors to applications to nano-optics, twistronics, and spintronics.

36 MATERIALS SCIENCE↗
DOE OSTI2024

Estradiol associations with brain functional connectivity in postmenopausal women

Abstract Objective Previous studies have found that estrogens play a role in functional connectivity in the brain; however, little research has been done regarding how estradiol is associated with functional connectivity in postmenopausal women. The purpose of this study was to examine the relationship between estradiol and functional connectivity in postmenopausal women. Methods Structural and blood oxygenation level–dependent resting-state magnetic resonance imaging scans of 88 cognitively healthy postmenopausal individuals were obtained along with blood samples collected the same day as the magnetic resonance imaging to assess hormone levels. We generated connectivity values in CONN toolbox version 20.b, an SPM-based software. Results A regression analysis was run using estradiol level and regions of interest (ROI), including the hippocampus, parahippocampus, dorsolateral prefrontal cortex, and precuneus. Estradiol level was found to enhance parahippocampal gyrus anterior division left functional connectivity during ROI-to-ROI regression analysis. Estradiol enhanced functional connectivity between the parahippocampal gyrus anterior division left and the precuneus as well as the parahippocampal gyrus anterior division left and parahippocampal gyrus posterior division right. An exploratory analysis showed that years since the final menstrual period was related to enhanced connectivity between regions within the frontoparietal network. Conclusions These results illustrated the relationship between estradiol level and functional connectivity in postmenopausal women. They have implications for understanding how the functioning of the brain changes for individuals after menopause that may eventually lead to changes in cognition and behavior in older ages.

Obstetrics & Gynecology↗
DOE OSTI2026

DNA Crystals as a Template for Patterned Functional Materials

DNA nanotechnology offers a wide toolkit of molecular functionalities and scales, including intricate motifs less than 10 nm and periodic structures exceeding 100 µm. At larger scales, however, there are often significant tradeoffs for DNA structures, namely stability and mechanical strength. This work describes the design, synthesis, and characterization of a functionalized DNA crystal. Using a ligated DNA crystal grants significant freedom for various functional materials to be applied, in this case, semiconducting cadmium sulfide and palladium metal. Properties investigated in this study include stability, mechanical strength, and optoelectronic properties such as photoluminescence (PL) and electric conductivity. Significant changes are observed based on the functional material applied to DNA crystals. The Young's modulus of the crystal varies by about five orders of magnitude when functionalized with palladium. PL and semiconductive behaviors were observed when cadmium sulfide was attached. These crystals represent an expansion of the capabilities of DNA structures at these length scales, and additionally a platform for future studies exchanging the materials or altering the ligation scheme.

CdS↗
DOE OSTI2026

Techno-Economic Evaluation of Electrified Vehicle Options in Drayage Fleets

The electrification of drayage fleets offers potential economic and operational benefits, but the financial viability of electrified vehicles remains sensitive to battery cost, energy price, and fleet usage patterns. While total cost of ownership (TCO) is a useful benchmark, fleet operators and investors are equally concerned with investment performance metrics such as payback period (PB) and Internal Rate of Return (IRR), which better reflect financial risks and investment return timelines. This study develops a unified techno-economic framework that jointly evaluates TCO, PB, and IRR to determine when electrified trucks become cost-effective alternatives to diesel trucks. Building on a previously developed cost modeling tool and using real-world telematics data from a Class 8 drayage fleet at the Port of Savannah, the analysis incorporates projected battery cost trajectories, electricity and diesel price trends, vehicle efficiency improvements, and multiple battery capacities. Parameter ranges reflect widely cited projections and observed drayage-duty-cycle variability. A surrogate-modeling method approximates economic performance across thousands of battery cost–electricity price combinations, enabling high-resolution identification of conditions that achieve TCO parity, acceptable PB thresholds, and target IRR levels. Additionally, the study estimates the evolving share of the fleet that can feasibly electrify over time under multiple economic metrics. This integrated framework offers a novel, data-driven approach to inform risk-aware decision-making for fleet electrification and supports investment planning under evolving cost and operational conditions.

Sun, Ruixiao [ORNL] (ORCID:0000000341768676)↗