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DOE OSTI2016

Plutonium Critical Mass Curve Comparison to Mass at Upper Subcritical Limit (USL) Using Whisper

Whisper is computational software designed to assist the nuclear criticality safety analyst with validation studies with the MCNP ® Monte Carlo radiation transport package. Standard approaches to validation rely on the selection of benchmarks based upon expert judgment. Whisper uses sensitivity/uncertainty (S/U) methods to select relevant benchmarks to a particular application or set of applications being analyzed. Using these benchmarks, Whisper computes a calculational margin. Whisper attempts to quantify the margin of subcriticality (MOS) from errors in software and uncertainties in nuclear data. The combination of the Whisper-derived calculational margin and MOS comprise the baseline upper subcritical limit (USL), to which an additional margin may be applied by the nuclear criticality safety analyst as appropriate to ensure subcriticality. A series of critical mass curves for plutonium, similar to those found in Figure 31 of LA-10860-MS, have been generated using MCNP6.1.1 and the iterative parameter study software, WORM_Solver. The baseline USL for each of the data points of the curves was then computed using Whisper 1.1. The USL was then used to determine the equivalent mass for plutonium metal-water system. ANSI/ANS-8.1 states that it is acceptable to use handbook data, such as the data directly from the LA-10860-MS, as it is already considered validated (Section 4.3 4) “Use of subcritical limit data provided in ANSI/ANS standards or accepted reference publications does not require further validation.”). This paper attempts to take a novel approach to visualize traditional critical mass curves and allows comparison with the amount of mass for which the k eff is equal to the USL (calculational margin + margin of subcriticality). However, the intent is to plot the critical mass data along with USL, not to suggest that already accepted handbook data should have new and more rigorous requirements for validation.

11 NUCLEAR FUEL CYCLE AND FUEL MATERIALS↗

DOE OSTI2020

The Gemini Planet Imager Exoplanet Survey: Dynamical Mass of the Exoplanet β Pictoris b from Combined Direct Imaging and Astrometry

Herein, we present new observations of the planet β Pictoris b from 2018 with the Gemini Planet Imager (GPI), the first GPI observations following conjunction. Based on these new measurements, we perform a joint orbit fit to the available relative astrometry from ground-based imaging, the Hipparcos Intermediate Astrometric Data (IAD), and the Gaia DR2 position, and demonstrate how to incorporate the IAD into direct imaging orbit fits. We find a mass consistent with predictions of hot-start evolutionary models and previous works following similar methods, though with larger uncertainties: $12.8^{+5.3}_{–3.2} M_{Jup}$. Our eccentricity determination of ${0.12}_{-0.03}^{+0.04}$ disfavors circular orbits. We consider orbit fits to several different imaging data sets, and find generally similar posteriors on the mass for each combination of imaging data. Our analysis underscores the importance of performing joint fits to the absolute and relative astrometry simultaneously, given the strong covariance between orbital elements. Time of conjunction is well-constrained within 2.8 days of 2017 September 13, with the star behind the planet's Hill sphere between 2017 April 11 and 2018 February 16 (±18 days). Following the recent radial velocity detection of a second planet in the system, β Pic c, we perform additional two-planet fits combining relative astrometry, absolute astrometry, and stellar radial velocities. These joint fits find a significantly smaller mass (8.0 ± 2.6 M Jup) for the imaged planet β Pic b, in a somewhat more circular orbit. We expect future ground-based observations to further constrain the visual orbit and mass of the planet in advance of the release of Gaia DR4.

79 ASTRONOMY AND ASTROPHYSICS↗

DOE OSTI2025

Embracing Uncertainty and Perseverance. A Brief Perspective on Conducting On-Site NDT Research

Dr. Judi E. See, a Systems Analyst and Human Factors Engineer at Sandia National Laboratories, reflects on her experience conducting NDT research in a male-dominated environment. She emphasizes the importance of persistence, flexibility, and persuasive skills in overcoming challenges, ranging from gaining access to test sites and equipment to building trust with inspectors. She shares her personal experience of navigating professional situations where gender disparities were evident, highlighting the need for women to adapt and overcome obstacles in traditionally male-dominated settings. See's journey demonstrates that perseverance and ingenuity can lead to significant contributions, process improvements, and recognition in the NDT field.

42 ENGINEERING↗

DOE OSTI2025

Decayheatml

This code is designed to predict and analyze the decay heat generated in molten salt reactors (MSRs) using a hybrid approach that combines machine learning and segmented polynomial fitting. The accurate prediction of decay heat is essential for reactor safety and the optimization of spent fuel storage. The code operates through several key components: 1) Data Architecture: It incorporates a modular data architecture that handles various MSR-specific operational parameters such as power density, humidity content, and air ingress. These parameters are sampled using Sobol sequences to ensure comprehensive coverage of operational uncertainties. 2) Machine Learning Framework: The code employs a diverse set of machine learning models, including polynomial regression, decision trees, random forests, gradient boosting, support vector regression, k-nearest neighbors, multi-layer perceptrons, and symbolic regression. These models are trained to predict decay heat over a wide temporal range, from immediate shutdown up to 10,000 years. 3) Region-Optimized Training: The temporal domain is divided into multiple regions, each modeled separately to capture distinct decay heat characteristics across different time scales. This approach significantly improves the accuracy and interpretability of predictions. 4) Segmented Polynomial Interpretation (SPI): The SPI method translates machine learning predictions into piecewise polynomial equations. These equations are physically interpretable and can be directly integrated into existing engineering workflows and safety analyses. 5) Front-End Interfaces: The code includes both a Jupyter notebook interface for research development and a Streamlit web application for operational deployment. These interfaces allow users to interactively explore decay heat predictions, adjust operational parameters, and visualize results in real-time. 6) Applications: The framework supports various applications, including safety system validation and spent fuel container optimization. It enables real-time evaluation of worst-case decay heat scenarios, informing the design of passive safety systems and optimizing container designs for long-term storage. Overall, this code provides a robust, accurate, and user-friendly tool for predicting decay heat in MSRs, enhancing reactor safety, and optimizing spent fuel management.

Retamales, Mauricio Eduardo Tano [Idaho National L↗

DOE OSTI2017

Research and Development Toward Massive Liquid Argon Time Projection Chambers for Neutrino Detection

Liquid argon (LAr) time projection chambers (TPC) have rapidly increased in importance as particle detectors throughout the past four decades. While much research has been completed, there are still many areas which require further development to build and operate the next generation LAr TPC experiment, such as the Deep Underground Neutrino Experiment (DUNE). These include high voltage breakdown, argon purification and purity monitoring, and vacuum ultraviolet (VUV) scintillation light measurement. Visual monitoring of high voltage breakdown is helpful in allowing assessment of the performance of high voltage component design. Thus, a system of cryogenic cameras, the first of its kind, was developed for use in a large LAr cryostat, without the need for additional electronics heating. The system functioned without problem for 50 days at cryogenic temperature, with some degradation of image quality, and provided a useful monitor for the DUNE 35-ton cryogenics systems. The system did not observe any high voltage breakdowns during the run. Further development of the concept is ongoing for future installation in other experiments. The monitoring of LAr purity using TPC data is a fundamental study for LAr TPC experiments. However, the study has not been performed for a large LAr TPC in the presence of high electronic noise. Custom software was developed and validated for the accurate reconstruction of signals in noisy TPC data. The results of the reconstruction were used to successfully measure the LAr electron lifetime with an uncertainty comparable to alternate methods of measurement. The electron lifetime of the 35-ton Phase II run is determined to be 4.12 ± 0.17 (stat.) ±0.40 (syst.) ms. For general purpose research and development of high purity LAr as a particle detection medium, a dedicated test stand was designed, constructed, and commissioned. The system is used to test the gaseous photomultiplier (GPM) performance at cryogenic temperatures. The GPM functions with photoelectron multiplication at 77 K, at a reduced gain. Further study is required to show the detector’s direct sensitivity to LAr VUV scintillation light.

Thiesse, Matthew↗

DOE OSTI2019

Status of the NEAMS and ARC neutronic fast reactor tools integration to the NEAMS Workbench

The Workbench initiative was launched in FY-2017 within the Nuclear Energy Advanced Modeling and Simulation (NEAMS) Integration Product Line to facilitate the transition from conventional tools to high-fidelity tools. The Workbench provides a common user interface for model creation, real-time validation, execution, output processing, and visualization for integrated codes. The integration of the Argonne Reactor Computation (ARC) suite of codes into the NEAMS Workbench was initiated in FY-2017. The ARC codes contain both legacy codes like DIF3D and REBUS-3 that were developed with over 30 years of experience, and newer NEAMS additions like MC2-3, PERSENT and PROTEUS. The ARC integration into the NEAMS Workbench interface relies on the PyARC module which handles the pre- and post-processing of the native ARC codes input, and the runtime environment. The PyARC module together with the NEAMS Workbench interface are both released under Open Source Software licenses. In FY-2019, the effort focused on integrating the explicit assembly management logic of REBUS, the GAMSOR code for gamma heating transport, and of the NODAL solver of PROTEUS. Additional capabilities were also integrated in response to user requests, such as the assembly power peaking calculation and a 2D result plotting capability. For verification and demonstration purposes, the ARC codes were used through the Workbench for solving the Sodium-cooled Fast Reactor Uncertainty Analysis in Modelling (SFR-UAM) benchmark problems, including the newly proposed unit cells and ASTRID problem. Significant effort in FY-2019 focused on training new users from ANL, INL, NCSU, and Westinghouse. In particular, extensive training material was developed in the form of tutorials, including documentation, sample inputs, and associated presentations. The ARC codes are now actively used through the NEAMS Workbench by nuclear engineers at ANL, INL, NCSU, and Westinghouse, for LFR, MSR, micro-reactor, and SFR core design analyses. Future efforts will focus on adding new and existing modeling capabilities available with the ARC and NEAMS codes, training new users and supporting them to continue building user experience.

21 SPECIFIC NUCLEAR REACTORS AND ASSOCIATED PLANTS↗

DOE OSTI2020

An open source analysis framework for large-scale building energy modeling

Full integration of building energy modelling into the design and retrofit process has long been a goal of building scientists and practitioners. However, significant barriers still exist. Among them are the lack of available: (1) configurable technology stacks for performing both small- and large-scale analyses, (2) different classes of algorithms compatible with common design workflows, and (3) analysis tools for effectively visualizing large-scale simulation results. This article discusses the OpenStudio® Analysis Framework: a scalable analysis framework for building energy modelling that was developed to overcome the three barriers listed above. The framework is open-source and scalable to facilitate wider adoption and has a clearly defined application programming interface upon which other applications can be built. It runs on high-performance computing systems, within cloud infrastructure, and on laptops, and uses a common workflow to enable different classes of algorithms. Lessons learned from previous development efforts are also discussed.

32 ENERGY CONSERVATION, CONSUMPTION, AND UTILIZATI↗

DOE OSTI2018

Measurement of a Neutrino-Induced Charged Current Single Neutral Pion Cross Section at MicroBooNE

Micro Booster Neutrino Experiment (MicroBooNE) is a Liquid Argon Time Projection Chamber (LArTPC) operating in the Booster Neutrino Beamline at Fermi National Accelerator Laboratory. MicroBooNE's physics goals include studying short basline $\nu$ oscillation and performing a suite of low energy $\nu$ cross section measurements. Of particular interest to MicroBooNE, and the broader LArTPC community, are electromagnetic showers; these showers are at the heart of searches for charged current $\nu_e$ interactions, including MicroBooNE's flagship search for a MiniBooNE-like low energy excess (LEE). Neutral current $\pi^0$'s, which decay into 2 electromagnetic showers ($\gamma$'s), are the dominant source of non-$\nu_e$ backgrounds in searches for $\nu_{\mu}\rightarrow\nu_e$ oscillations in LArTPCs, such as the LEE. While precise measurements of this neutral current channel will provide a tight constraint on our modeling uncertainties, such events are particularly difficult to iden tify in data with our current tools, as there is often little or no activity at the neutrino interaction point. Charged current interactions, on the other hand, have simpler topologies with a long $\mu$ track that anchors to the interaction vertex. With a vertex in hand, we can develop automated reconstruction tools for neutrino-induced shower topologies (like the $\gamma$'s from $\pi^0$ decay). Thus, in studying charged current $\pi^0$ interactions, we are developing tools that can potentially be used to reconstruct an important LEE background, while also studying the physics of neutrino interactions, of which data is sparse for argon. This thesis reports the world's first measurement of the absolute, flux-averaged cross section of $\nu_{\mu}$-charged current single $\pi^0$ production on argon. The analysis chain begins with the selection of inclusive $\nu_\mu$ charged current events, where a candidate $\mu$ and neutrino interaction vertex are identified. These events are t hen passed to a reconstruction framework where electromagnet! ic shower candidates are reconstructed using computer visualization tools. Finally, the cross section is calculated on two reconstructed topologies: those with at least two reconstructed showers and those with at least one. Additionally, this work describes the first fully-automated electromagnetic shower reconstruction process employed by a LArTPC to perform a cross section analysis. We measure the flux averaged cross section on argon at 824 MeV via the two and one shower selections respectively to be \par \noindent $\sigma_{\geq2 Shower}$ = (2.56 $\pm$ $0.50_{stat}$ $\pm$ $0.31_{genie}$ $\pm$ $0.37_{flux}$ $\pm$ $0.31_{det}$) $\times$ $10^{-38}$ $\frac{cm^2}{Ar}$, \par \noindent $\sigma_{\geq 1 Shower}$ = (2.64 $\pm$ $0.33_{stat}$ $\pm$ $0.36_{genie}$ $\pm$ $0.38_{flux}$ $\pm$ $0.35_{det}$) $\times$ $10^{-38}$ $\frac{cm^2}{Ar}$.

72 PHYSICS OF ELEMENTARY PARTICLES AND FIELDS↗

DOE OSTI2017

Economic Consequence Analysis of Disasters: The ECAT Software Tool

This study develops a methodology for rapidly obtaining approximate estimates of the economic consequences from numerous natural, man-made and technological threats. This software tool is intended for use by various decision makers and analysts to obtain estimates rapidly. It is programmed in Excel and Visual Basic for Applications (VBA) to facilitate its use. This tool is called E-CAT (Economic Consequence Analysis Tool) and accounts for the cumulative direct and indirect impacts (including resilience and behavioral factors that significantly affect base estimates) on the U.S. economy. E-CAT is intended to be a major step toward advancing the current state of economic consequence analysis (ECA) and also contributing to and developing interest in further research into complex but rapid turnaround approaches. The essence of the methodology involves running numerous simulations in a computable general equilibrium (CGE) model for each threat, yielding synthetic data for the estimation of a single regression equation based on the identification of key explanatory variables (threat characteristics and background conditions). This transforms the results of a complex model, which is beyond the reach of most users, into a "reduced form" model that is readily comprehensible. Functionality has been built into E-CAT so that its users can switch various consequence categories on and off in order to create customized profiles of economic consequences of numerous risk events. E-CAT incorporates uncertainty on both the input and output side in the course of the analysis.

Environmental Economics↗

DOE OSTI2024

Tau Positron Emission Tomography for Predicting Dementia in Individuals With Mild Cognitive Impairment

An accurate prognosis is especially pertinent in mild cognitive impairment (MCI), when individuals experience considerable uncertainty about future progression. To evaluate the prognostic value of tau positron emission tomography (PET) to predict clinical progression from MCI to dementia. This was a multicenter cohort study with external validation and a mean (SD) follow-up of 2.0 (1.1) years. Data were collected from centers in South Korea, Sweden, the US, and Switzerland from June 2014 to January 2024. Participant data were retrospectively collected and inclusion criteria were a baseline clinical diagnosis of MCI; longitudinal clinical follow-up; a Mini-Mental State Examination (MMSE) score greater than 22; and available tau PET, amyloid-β (Aβ) PET, and magnetic resonance imaging (MRI) scan less than 1 year from diagnosis. A total of 448 eligible individuals with MCI were included (331 in the discovery cohort and 117 in the validation cohort). None of these participants were excluded over the course of the study. Exposures included Tau PET, Aβ PET, and MRI. Positive results on tau PET (temporal meta–region of interest), Aβ PET (global; expressed in the standardized metric Centiloids), and MRI (Alzheimer disease [AD] signature region) was assessed using quantitative thresholds and visual reads. Clinical progression from MCI to all-cause dementia (regardless of suspected etiology) or to AD dementia (AD as suspected etiology) served as the primary outcomes. The primary analyses were receiver operating characteristics. In the discovery cohort, the mean (SD) age was 70.9 (8.5) years, 191 (58%) were male, the mean (SD) MMSE score was 27.1 (1.9), and 110 individuals with MCI (33%) converted to dementia (71 to AD dementia). Only the model with tau PET predicted all-cause dementia (area under the receiver operating characteristic curve [AUC], 0.75; 95% CI, 0.70-0.80) better than a base model including age, sex, education, and MMSE score (AUC, 0.71; 95% CI, 0.65-0.77; P = .02), while the models assessing the other neuroimaging markers did not improve prediction. In the validation cohort, tau PET replicated in predicting all-cause dementia. Compared to the base model (AUC, 0.75; 95% CI, 0.69-0.82), prediction of AD dementia in the discovery cohort was significantly improved by including tau PET (AUC, 0.84; 95% CI, 0.79-0.89; P < .001), tau PET visual read (AUC, 0.83; 95% CI, 0.78-0.88; P = .001), and Aβ PET Centiloids (AUC, 0.83; 95% CI, 0.78-0.88; P = .03). In the validation cohort, only the tau PET and the tau PET visual reads replicated in predicting AD dementia. In this study, tau-PET showed the best performance as a stand-alone marker to predict progression to dementia among individuals with MCI. This suggests that, for prognostic purposes in MCI, a tau PET scan may be the best currently available neuroimaging marker.

59 BASIC BIOLOGICAL SCIENCES↗

DOE OSTI2017

The Sirius System and Its Astrophysical Puzzles: Hubble Space Telescope and Ground-based Astrometry

Sirius, the seventh-nearest stellar system, is a visual binary containing the metallic-line A1 V star Sirius A, the brightest star in the sky, orbited in a 50.13 year period by Sirius B, the brightest and nearest white dwarf (WD). Using images obtained over nearly two decades with the Hubble Space Telescope (HST), along with photographic observations covering almost 20 years and nearly 2300 historical measurements dating back to the 19th century, we determine precise orbital elements for the visual binary. Combined with the parallax and the motion of the A component, these elements yield dynamical masses of 2.063±0.023 M{sub ⊙} and 1.018±0.011 M{sub ⊙} for Sirius A and B, respectively. Our precise HST astrometry rules out third bodies orbiting either star in the system, down to masses of ∼15–25 M{sub Jup}. The location of Sirius B in the Hertzsprung–Russell diagram is in excellent agreement with theoretical cooling tracks for WDs of its dynamical mass, and implies a cooling age of ∼126 Myr. The position of Sirius B on the mass–radius plane is also consistent with WD theory, assuming a carbon–oxygen core. Including the pre-WD evolutionary timescale of the assumed progenitor, the total age of Sirius B is about 228 ± 10 Myr. We calculated evolutionary tracks for stars with the dynamical mass of Sirius A, using two independent codes. We find it necessary to assume a slightly subsolar metallicity, of about 0.85 Z{sub ⊙}, to fit its location on the luminosity–radius plane. The age of Sirius A based on these models is about 237–247 Myr, with uncertainties of ±15 Myr, consistent with that of the WD companion. We discuss astrophysical puzzles presented by the Sirius system, including the probability that the two stars must have interacted in the past, even though there is no direct evidence for this and the orbital eccentricity remains high.

79 ASTRONOMY AND ASTROPHYSICS↗

DOE OSTI2018

Fast Learning for Immersive Engagement in Energy Simulations

The fast computation which is critical for immersive engagement with and learning from energy simulations would be furthered by developing a general method for creating rapidly computed simplified versions of NREL's computation-intensive energy simulations. Created using machine learning techniques, these 'reduced form' simulations can provide statistically sound estimates of the results of the full simulations at a fraction of the computational cost with response times - typically less than one minute of wall-clock time - suitable for real-time human-in-the-loop design and analysis. Additionally, uncertainty quantification techniques can document the accuracy of the approximate models and their domain of validity. Approximation methods are applicable to a wide range of computational models, including supply-chain models, electric power grid simulations, and building models. These reduced-form representations cannot replace or re-implement existing simulations, but instead supplement them by enabling rapid scenario design and quality assurance for large sets of simulations. We present an overview of the framework and methods we have implemented for developing these reduced-form representations.

24 POWER TRANSMISSION AND DISTRIBUTION↗

DOE OSTI2022

MPC4CLR (Model-Predictive-Control-for-Critical-Load-Restoration-in-Power-Distribution-Systems) [SWR-22-24]

Model predictive control (MPC) is a system or process control technique for making decisions under uncertainty via rolling look-ahead optimizations at each control step where only the current step decisions are applied, and the rest are discarded. In this work, we developed an MPC for a critical load restoration (CLR) in power distribution systems to recover system service (electricity delivery) following an extreme event-triggered substation outage. The method considers the problem of controlling distributed energy resources (DERs) of the distribution system with the objective of achieving maximum load pick up while satisfying distribution network flow and voltage constraints. A linearized optimal power flow (OPF) model is employed to represent the physics of the network. The problem formulation is augmented with a ramping (up) reserve product for the DERs to ensure improved and upward monotonic load restoration as time evolves. Simulation analysis and performance tests are performed using a modified IEEE 13-bus test feeder integrated with wind, solar, microturbine, and energy storage battery. The software is developed using various software packages in Julia and Python. The MPC model is implemented using the JuMP optimization language in Julia while the data analytics including renewable generation and load demand forecasts, running the MPC simulation and visualizations is performed in Python.

Eseye, Abinet Tesfaye↗

DOE OSTI2015

SU-E-J-153: Reconstructing 4D Cone Beam CT Images for Clinical QA of Lung SABR Treatments

Purpose: To verify that the planned Primary Target Volume (PTV) and Internal Gross Tumor Volume (IGTV) fully enclose a moving lung tumor volume as visualized on a pre-SABR treatment verification 4D Cone Beam CT. Methods: Daily 3DCBCT image sets were acquired immediately prior to treatment for 10 SABR lung patients using the on-board imaging system integrated into a Varian TrueBeam (v1.6: no 4DCBCT module available). Respiratory information was acquired during the scan using the Varian RPM system. The CBCT projections were sorted into 8 bins offline, both by breathing phase and amplitude, using in-house software. An iterative algorithm based on total variation minimization, implemented in the open source reconstruction toolkit (RTK), was used to reconstruct the binned projections into 4DCBCT images. The relative tumor motion was quantified by tracking the centroid of the tumor volume from each 4DCBCT image. Following CT-CBCT registration, the planning CT volumes were compared to the location of the CBCT tumor volume as it moves along its breathing trajectory. An overlap metric quantified the ability of the planned PTV and IGTV to contain the tumor volume at treatment. Results: The 4DCBCT reconstructed images visibly show the tumor motion. The mean overlap between the planned PTV (IGTV) and the 4DCBCT tumor volumes was 100% (94%), with an uncertainty of 5% from the 4DCBCT tumor volume contours. Examination of the tumor motion and overlap metric verify that the IGTV drawn at the planning stage is a good representation of the tumor location at treatment. Conclusion: It is difficult to compare GTV volumes from a 4DCBCT and a planning CT due to image quality differences. However, it was possible to conclude the GTV remained within the PTV 100% of the time thus giving the treatment staff confidence that SABR lung treatements are being delivered accurately.

60 APPLIED LIFE SCIENCES↗

DOE OSTI2024

Subsidence Measurements at the Teller 27 Field Site, Seward Peninsula, Alaska, 2021

In September 2021, differential GPS (dGPS) points were collected in areas of visual subsidence in the Teller watershed near mile marker 27 of the Bob Blodgett Nome-Teller Memorial Highway on the Seward Peninsula of Alaska. This study aimed to understand how structural permafrost loss is affecting meter-scale ground elevation. As ice thaws, heaving and slumping of the landscape creates new microtopographical features on the landscape that may alter surface hydrology and soil moisture and thus plant community composition and biogeochemical cycling. The Teller 27 field site is underlain with discontinuous permafrost, so the landscape features a variety of permafrost features. We collected ground elevations from eight subsidence areas in two forms: 1) Transects were sampled laterally through areas of ground subsidence to capture the high edges and low spots where the earth slumped. 2) The circumference of the subsidence area was sampled in order to measure the ground area affected by subsidence. These data were collected with an Emlid Reach RS2 dGPS and a base station. This dataset includes one *.csv of dGPS locations of the eight subsidence locations and one *.kml of measurement locations.The Next-Generation Ecosystem Experiments: Arctic (NGEE Arctic) was a 15-year research effort (2012-2027) to reduce uncertainty in Earth System Models by developing a predictive understanding of carbon-rich Arctic ecosystems and feedbacks to climate. NGEE Arctic was supported by the Department of Energy’s Office of Biological and Environmental Research.The NGEE Arctic project had two field research sites: 1) located within the Arctic polygonal tundra coastal region on the Barrow Environmental Observatory (BEO) and the North Slope near Utqiagvik (Barrow), Alaska and 2) multiple areas on the discontinuous permafrost region of the Seward Peninsula north of Nome, Alaska.Through observations, experiments, and synthesis with existing datasets, NGEE Arctic provided an enhanced knowledge base for multi-scale modeling and contributed to improved process representation at global pan-Arctic scales within the Department of Energy’s Earth system Model (the Energy Exascale Earth System Model, or E3SM), and specifically within the E3SM Land Model component (ELM).

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

DOE OSTI2021

Overview of the Tolerance Limit Calculations with Application to TSURFER

To establish confidence in the results of computerized physics models, a key regulatory requirement is to develop a scientifically defendable process. The methods employed for confidence, characterization, and consolidation, or C3, are statistically involved and are often accessible only to avid statisticians. This manuscript serves as a pedagogical presentation of the C3 process to all stakeholders—including researchers, industrial practitioners, and regulators—to impart an intuitive understanding of the key concepts and mathematical methods entailed by C3. The primary focus is on calculation of tolerance limits, which is the overall goal of the C3 process. Tolerance limits encode the confidence in the calculation results as communicated to the regulator. Understanding the C3 process is especially critical today, as the nuclear industry is considering more innovative ways to assess new technologies, including new reactor and fuel concepts, via an integrated approach that optimally combines modeling and simulation and minimal targeted validation experiments. This manuscript employs intuitive, analytical, numerical, and visual representations to explain how tolerance limits may be calculated for a wide range of configurations, and it also describes how their values may be interpreted. Various verification tests have been developed to test the calculated tolerance limits and to help delineate their values. The manuscript demonstrates the calculation of tolerance limits for TSURFER, a computer code developed by the Oak Ridge National Laboratory for criticality safety applications. The goal is to evaluate the tolerance limit for TSURFER-determined criticality biases to support the determination of upper, subcritical limits for regulatory purposes.

73 NUCLEAR PHYSICS AND RADIATION PHYSICS↗

DOE OSTI2025

HydroForecast Long-term: Improving hydropower’s resilience to climate change through accurate climate-scale

With hydrologic patterns and water availability across the globe shifting due to climate change, advancements in hydrologic prediction systems can help significantly reduce the uncertainties that utilities and water supply entities have in their decision making. Understanding and estimating hydrology at the climate scale is critical for managing water resources under changing climate scenarios. This project focuses on integrating state-of-the-art neural network modeling with downscaled climate projections to deliver the reliable water supply projections decades into the future to meet an urgent need from hydropower operators and water utilities. In this Phase 1 DOE SBIR proposal, we developed and validated a theory-guided neural network model, HydroForecast Long-term, for climate-scale hydrology and implemented the model within existing HydroForecast infrastructure. HydroForecast Long-term combines the most accurate streamflow modeling system with a flexible and scalable data architecture to generate water supply projections out to the year 2100. This report illustrates that we have achieved our four objectives: 1) create a prototype of HydroForecast Long-term, building the neural network prediction model, 2) build an automated data input pipeline that processes large amounts of data from the latest global temperature and precipitation climate models; 3) benchmark the accuracy of the hydrologic model over the recent two decades over a large set of diverse basins, and 4) create a set of output visuals and summary metrics informed by customer feedback that connect the data to critical decision points. This work empowers water users to make data-informed decisions supporting a resilient, renewable-powered grid and water system. The results advance the Department of Energy’s mission by addressing critical gaps in water supply planning under climate change.

13 HYDRO ENERGY↗

DOE OSTI2024

Pre-Transient Characterization of Historic EBR-II Pins for Transient Testing

Current interest in sodium-cooled fast reactor (SFR) designs, such as TerraPower’s Natrium Reactor, has highlighted the need for advanced reactor fuel technology development. Modern U-Zr and U- Pu-Zr pin designs are primary candidates to fuel SFRs and boast high fuel utilization capacity, increased fuel-cladding compatibility, and improved safety through inherent feedback mechanisms. Despite over 60 years of metallic fuel irradiation, uncertainties exist in the performance of the fuel system, particularly under transient overpower (TOP) and loss of flow (LOF) scenarios. Throughout historical testing within the Experimental Breeder Reactor II (EBR-II) and the Fast Flux Test Facility (FFTF), fuel behavior has demonstrated benign response to transient reactor conditions; however, accurate predictions of failure thresholds to inform operational limitations rely heavily on fuel composition, burnup, and irradiation history. In expanding TOP and LOF testing, the Transient Heat sink Overpower Response (THOR) Capsule will be used to test modern fuel technologies in a static sodium environment in the Transient Reactor Test (TREAT) Facility. The THOR capsule is highly instrumented and will provide time-dependent thermal behavior of SFR fuel pins subjected to accident conditions within TREAT. The THOR-Metallic (THOR- M) campaign aims to validate and expand historical TOP and LOF testing on high burnup U-Zr and U-Pu- Zr fuel alloys previously irradiated in EBR-II by running the rods to failure. This contribution focuses primarily on the pre-transient engineering-scale destructive and non- destructive characterization that has been conducted on both the test and sibling pins used for the TOP and LOF tests. All pins underwent visual examination, neutron radiography, element contact profilometry, and precise gamma scan. The sibling pins used for each test were further analyzed using gas assay, sampling, and recharge analysis (GASR), and optical microscopy. The results from each technique confirmed that the fuel pins were intact and devoid of any atypical developments when compared to historical data. Additionally, the analyzed measurements establish a baseline for comparison to post-transient analysis. Key fuel behaviors quanitifed include axial elongation of the fuel column, diametral strain of the pin, patterns in fluff structure geometry, changes in axial isotope distribution, evolution of constituent redistribution, porosity, and fission gas release. The pre-transient measurements and changes attributed to transient behavior from post-transient measurement will be compared to historical data to capture the behavioral dependence on composition, burnup, and irradiation history. Results from this work advance the initiatives of the THOR-M campaign, which aid in informing fuel performance models and establishing safety criteria for SFR operational limits. The novel combination of test environment, in-situ instrumentation, and comprehensive suite of characterization methods provides greater understanding of transient fuel behavior. Overall, information on the time and condition of pin failure for high burnup U-Pu-Zr will greatly expand the limited existing TOP and LOF test data.

11 NUCLEAR FUEL CYCLE AND FUEL MATERIALS↗