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Search indexed NASA NTRS and DOE OSTI research on propulsion, heat transfer, battery materials and energy systems. Follow report and document links to the original sources.

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All sourcesNASA NTRSDOE OSTI
DOE OSTI2021

Searches for neutrinos from cosmic-ray interactions in the Sun using seven years of IceCube data

Cosmic-ray interactions with the solar atmosphere are expected to produce particle showers which in turn produce neutrinos from weak decays of mesons. These solar atmospheric neutrinos (SAνs) have never been observed experimentally. A detection would be an important step in understanding cosmic-ray propagation in the inner solar system and the dynamics of solar magnetic fields. SAνs also represent an irreducible background to solar dark matter searches and a detection would allow precise characterization of this background. In this work, we present the first experimental search based on seven years of data collected from May 2010 to May 2017 in the austral winter with the IceCube Neutrino Observatory. An unbinned likelihood analysis is performed for events reconstructed within 5 degrees of the center of the Sun. No evidence for a SAν flux is observed. After inclusion of systematic uncertainties, we set a 90% upper limit of 1.02 +0.20 -0.18 ·10 -13 GeV-1cm -2 s -1 at 1 TeV.

79 ASTRONOMY AND ASTROPHYSICS↗
DOE OSTI2024

Reduced accrual of mineral-associated organic matter after two years of enhanced rock weathering in cropland soils, though no net losses of soil organic carbon

Abstract Enhanced rock weathering (ERW), the application of crushed silicate rock to soil, can remove atmospheric carbon dioxide by converting it to (bi) carbonate ions or solid carbonate minerals. However, few studies have empirically evaluated ERW in field settings. A critical question remains as to whether additions of crushed rock might positively or negatively affect soil organic matter (SOM)—Earth’s largest terrestrial organic carbon (C) pool and a massive reservoir of organic nitrogen (N). Here, in three irrigated cropland field trials in California, USA, we investigated the effect of crushed meta-basalt rock additions on different pools of soil organic carbon and nitrogen (i.e., mineral-associated organic matter, MAOM, and particulate organic matter, POM), active microbial biomass, and microbial community composition. After 2 years of crushed rock additions, MAOM stocks were lower in the upper surface soil (0–10 cm) of plots with crushed rock compared to unamended control plots. At the 2 sites where baseline pre-treatment data were available, neither total SOC nor SON decreased over the 2 years of study in plots with crushed rock or unamended control plots. However, the accrual rate of MAOM-C and MAOM-N at 0–10 cm was lower in plots with crushed rock vs. unamended controls. Before ERW is deployed at large scales, our results suggest that field trials should assess the effects of crushed rock on SOM pools, especially over multi-year time scales and in different environmental contexts, to accurately assess changes in net C and understand the mechanisms driving interactions between ERW and SOM cycling.

58 GEOSCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2025

SPT-3G D1: Constraints on inflationary gravitational waves with two years of SPT-3G data

Here, we present a measurement of the 𝐵-mode polarization power spectrum of the cosmic microwave background anisotropies at 32 ≤ ℓ < 502 for three bands centered at 95, 150, and 220 GHz using data from the SPT-3G receiver on the South Pole Telescope. This work uses SPT-3G observations from the 2019 and 2020 winter observing seasons of a ∼1500 deg 2 patch of sky that directly overlaps with fields observed with the BICEP/Keck family of telescopes and covers part of the proposed Simons Observatory and CMB-S4 deep fields. Employing new techniques for mitigating polarized atmospheric noise, the SPT-3G data demonstrates a white noise level of 9.3 (6.7) μ⁢K−arcmin at ℓ ∼500 for the 95 GHz (150 GHz) data, with a 1/ℓ noise knee at ℓ = 128 (182). We fit the observed six auto- and cross-frequency 𝐵-mode power spectra to a model including lensed Λ⁢CDM 𝐵-modes and a combination of Galactic and extragalactic foregrounds. This work characterizes foregrounds in the vicinity of the BICEP/Keck survey area, finding foreground power consistent with that reported by the BICEP/Keck collaboration within the same region and a factor of ∼3 higher power over the full SPT-3G survey area. Using SPT-3G data over the BICEP/Keck survey area, we place a 95% upper limit on the tensor-to-scalar ratio of 𝑟 <0.25 and find the statistical uncertainty on 𝑟 to be 𝜎⁡(𝑟) = 0.067.

Zebrowski, J. A. [University of Chicago; Universit↗
DOE OSTI2023

Two Large-Scale Meteorological Patterns are Associated with Short-Duration Dry Spells in the Northeastern United States

Large-scale meteorological pattern (LSMP)–based analysis is used in a novel way to understand meteorological conditions before and during short-duration dry spells over the northeastern United States. These LSMPs are useful to assess models and select better-performing models for future projections. Dry-spell events are identified from histograms of consecutive dry days below a daily precipitation threshold. Events lasting 12 days or longer, which correspond to ~10% of dry-spell events, are examined. The 500-hPa stream-function anomaly fields for the first 12 days of each event are time averaged, and k -means clustering is applied to isolate the dry-spell-related LSMPs. The first cluster has a strong low pressure anomaly over the Atlantic Ocean, southeast of the region, and is more common in winter and spring. The second cluster has strong high pressure over east-central North America and is most common during autumn. Over the region, both clusters have negative specific humidity anomalies, negative integrated vapor transport from the north, and subsidence associated with a midlatitude jet stream dipole structure that reinforces upper-level convergence. Subsidence is supported by cold-air advection in the first cluster and the location on the east side of the lower-level high pressure in the second cluster. Extratropical cyclone storm tracks are generally shifted southward of the region during the dry spells. Individual events lie on a continuum between two distinct clusters. These clusters have similar local, but different remote, properties. Although dry spells occur with greater frequency during drought months, most dry spells occur during nondrought months. Significance Statement: This study examines the large-scale weather patterns and meteorological conditions associated with dry-spell events lasting at least 2 weeks while affecting the northeastern United States. A statistical approach groups events together on the basis of similar atmospheric features. We find two distinct sets of patterns that we call large-scale meteorological patterns. These patterns reduce moisture, foster localized sinking, and shift the storm track southward along the Atlantic seaboard, all of which reduce precipitation. Besides greater understanding, knowing the meteorological patterns during short-term dryness in the region provides an important tool to assess how well atmospheric models reproduce these specific patterns. More dry spells occur in non-drought months than in drought months, which means that dry spells can occur without preexisting drought conditions.

58 GEOSCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2023

Intensification of Hurricane Sally (2020) over the Mississippi River Plume

Abstract Tropical Cyclone (TC) Sally formed on 11 September 2020, traveled through the Gulf of Mexico (GMX), and intensified rapidly before making landfall on the Alabama coast as a devastating category-2 TC with extensive coastal and inland flooding. In this study, using a combination of observations and idealized numerical model experiments, we demonstrate that the Mississippi River plume played a key role in the intensification of Sally near the northern Gulf Coast. As the storm intensified and its translation slowed before landfall, sea surface cooling was reduced along its track, coincident with a pronounced increase in SSS. Further analysis reveals that TC Sally encountered a warm Loop Current eddy in the northern GMX close to the Mississippi River plume. Besides deepening the thermocline, the eddy advected low-salinity Mississippi River plume water into the storm’s path. This resulted in the development of strong upper-ocean salinity stratification, with a shallow layer of freshwater lying above a deep, warm “barrier layer.” Consequently, TC-induced mixing and the associated sea surface cooling were reduced, aiding Sally’s intensification. These results suggest that the Mississippi River plume and freshwater advection by the Loop Current eddies can play an important role in TC intensification near the U.S. Gulf Coast.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2021

Detection and Bulk Properties of the HR 8799 Planets with High-resolution Spectroscopy

Using the Keck Planet Imager and Characterizer, we obtained high-resolution (R ~ 35,000) K-band spectra of the four planets orbiting HR 8799. We clearly detected H{sub 2}O and CO in the atmospheres of HR 8799 c, d, and e, and tentatively detected a combination of CO and H{sub 2}O in b. These are the most challenging directly imaged exoplanets that have been observed at high spectral resolution to date when considering both their angular separations and flux ratios. We developed a forward-modeling framework that allows us to jointly fit the spectra of the planets and the diffracted starlight simultaneously in a likelihood-based approach and obtained posterior probabilities on their effective temperatures, surface gravities, radial velocities, and spins. We measured vsin (i) values of 10.1{sub -2.7}{sup +2.8} km s{sup -1} for HR 8799 d and 15.0{sub -2.6}{sup +2.3} km s{sup -1} for HR 8799 e, and placed an upper limit of <14 km s{sup -1} of HR 8799 c. Under two different assumptions of their obliquities, we found tentative evidence that rotation velocity is anticorrelated with companion mass, which could indicate that magnetic braking with a circumplanetary disk at early times is less efficient at spinning down lower-mass planets.

74 ATOMIC AND MOLECULAR PHYSICS↗
DOE OSTI2025

Constraints on Inflationary Gravitational Waves with Two Years of SPT-3G Data

We present a measurement of the $B$-mode polarization power spectrum of the cosmic microwave background anisotropies at 32 $\le$$\ell$$<$ 502 for three bands centered at 95, 150, and 220 GHz using data from the SPT-3G receiver on the South Pole Telescope. This work uses SPT-3G observations from the 2019 and 2020 winter observing seasons of a $\sim$1500 deg$^2$ patch of sky that directly overlaps with fields observed with the BICEP/Keck family of telescopes, and covers part of the proposed Simons Observatory and CMB-S4 deep fields. Employing new techniques for mitigating polarized atmospheric noise, the SPT-3G data demonstrates a white noise level of 9.3 (6.7) $\mu$K-arcmin at $\ell \sim 500$ for the 95 GHz (150 GHz) data, with a $1/\ell$ noise knee at $\ell$=128 (182). We fit the observed six auto- and cross-frequency $B$-mode power spectra to a model including lensed $\Lambda$CDM $B$-modes and a combination of Galactic and extragalactic foregrounds. This work characterizes foregrounds in the vicinity of the BICEP/Keck survey area, finding foreground power consistent with that reported by the BICEP/Keck collaboration within the same region, and a factor of $\sim$ 3 higher power over the full SPT-3G survey area. Using SPT-3G data over the BICEP/Keck survey area, we place a 95% upper limit on the tensor-to-scalar ratio of $r < 0.25$ and find the statistical uncertainty on $r$ to be $\sigma(r) = 0.067$.

Zebrowski, J. A. [Chicago U., KICP; Chicago U., As↗
DOE OSTI2021

Using radar observations to evaluate 3-D radar echo structure simulated by the Energy Exascale Earth System Model (E3SM) version 1

Abstract. The Energy Exascale Earth System Model (E3SM) developed by the Department of Energy has a goal of addressing challenges in understanding the global water cycle. Success depends on correct simulation of cloud and precipitation elements. However, lack of appropriate evaluation metrics has hindered the accurate representation of these elements in general circulation models. We derive metrics from the three-dimensional data of the ground-based Next-Generation Radar (NEXRAD) network over the US to evaluate both horizontal and vertical structures of precipitation elements. We coarsened the resolution of the radar observations to be consistent with the model resolution and improved the coupling of the Cloud Feedback Model Intercomparison Project Observation Simulator Package (COSP) and E3SM Atmospheric Model Version 1 (EAMv1) to obtain the best possible model output for comparison with the observations. Three warm seasons (2014–2016) of EAMv1 simulations of 3-D radar reflectivity features at an hourly scale are evaluated. A general agreement in domain-mean radar reflectivity intensity is found between EAMv1 and NEXRAD below 4 km altitude; however, the model underestimates reflectivity over the central US, which suggests that the model does not capture the mesoscale convective systems that produce much of the precipitation in that region. The shape of the model-estimated histogram of subgrid-scale reflectivity is improved by correcting the microphysical assumptions in COSP. Different from previous studies that evaluated modeled cloud top height, we find the model severely underestimates radar reflectivity at upper levels – the simulated echo top height is about 5 km lower than in observations – and this result is not changed by tuning any single physics parameter. For more accurate model evaluation, a higher-order consistency between the COSP and the host model is warranted in future studies.

58 GEOSCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2022

An evaluation of the E3SMv1 Arctic ocean and sea-ice regionally refined model

The Energy Exascale Earth System Model (E3SM) is a state-of-the-science Earth system model (ESM) with the ability to focus horizontal resolution of its multiple components in specific areas. Regionally refined global ESMs are motivated by the need to explicitly resolve, rather than parameterize, relevant physics within the regions of refined resolution, while offering significant computational cost savings relative to the respective cost of configurations with high-resolution (HR) everywhere on the globe. In this paper, we document results from the first Arctic regionally refined E3SM configuration for the ocean and sea-ice components (E3SM-Arctic-OSI), while employing data-based atmosphere, land, and hydrology components. Our aim is an improved representation of the Arctic coupled ocean and sea-ice state, its variability and trends, and the exchanges of mass and property fluxes between the Arctic and the sub-Arctic. We find that E3SM-Arctic-OSI increases the realism of simulated Arctic ocean and sea-ice conditions compared to a similar low-resolution E3SM simulation without the Arctic regional refinement in ocean and sea-ice components (E3SM-LR-OSI). In particular, exchanges through the main Arctic gateways are greatly improved with respect to E3SM-LR-OSI. Other aspects, such as the Arctic freshwater content variability and sea-ice trends, are also satisfactorily simulated. Yet, other features, such as the upper-ocean stratification and the sea-ice thickness distribution, need further improvements, involving either more advanced parameterizations, model tuning, or additional grid refinements. Overall, E3SM-Arctic-OSI offers an improved representation of the Arctic system relative to E3SM-LR-OSI, at a fraction (15 %) of the computational cost of comparable global high-resolution configurations, while permitting exchanges with the lower-latitude oceans that cannot be directly accounted for in Arctic regional models.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2023

Vegetation Representation Influences Projected Streamflow Changes in the Colorado River Basin

Vegetation parameters for the Variable Infiltration Capacity (VIC) hydrologic model were recently updated using observations from the Moderate Resolution Imaging Spectroradiometer (MODIS). Previous work showed that these MODIS-based parameters improved VIC evapotranspiration simulations when compared to eddy covariance observations. Due to the importance of evapotranspiration within the Colorado River basin, this study provided a basin-by-basin calibration of VIC soil parameters with updated MODIS-based vegetation parameters to improve streamflow simulations. Interestingly, while both configurations had similar historic streamflow performance, end-of-century hydrologic projections, driven by 29 downscaled global climate models under the RCP8.5 emissions scenario, differed between the two configurations. The calibrated MODIS-based configuration had an ensemble mean that simulated little change in end-of-century annual streamflow volume (+0.4%) at Lees Ferry, Arizona, relative to the historical period (1960–2005). In contrast, the previous VIC configuration, which is used to inform decisions about future water resources in the Colorado River basin, projected an 11.7% decrease in annual streamflow. Both VIC configurations simulated similar amounts of evapotranspiration in the historical period. However, the MODIS-based VIC configuration did not show as much of an increase in evapotranspiration by the end of the century, primarily within the upper basin’s forested areas. Differences in evapotranspiration projections were the result of the MODIS-based vegetation parameters having lower leaf area index values and less forested area compared to previous vegetation estimates used in recent Colorado River basin hydrologic projections. These results highlight the need to accurately characterize vegetation and better constrain climate sensitivities in hydrologic models.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2022

Observational study of the South American low-level jet during the SALLJEX

The South American Low-Level Jet (SALLJ) east of the Andes is a narrow maximum northerly wind present just above the boundary layer. It is an important component of the tropical-extratropical exchange of heat and moisture in South America and favors deep moist convection in Southeastern South America (SESA). In the present study, the SALLJ characteristics during the 2002-2003 summer season are investigated using upper-air measurements collected during the SALLJ Experiment (SALLJEX). At most stations, the highest wind speed was observed below 3000 m between 06 and 12 UTC, mainly in association with a maximization of the northerly component of the wind while the zonal component reached its minimum. Here, an increase in the maximum wind speed from 10°S to Santa Cruz de la Sierra’s latitude and from there a weakening southward was found throughout the SALLJEX network. Additionally, SALLJEX observations allowed to locate SALLJ core purely from observations in a region just east of the Andes in agreement with previous studies. A new localized kinematic classification was developed and applied in this study to analyze the relationship between the SALLJ intensity and the thermodynamic properties of the lower layers of the atmosphere. Weak, moderate, and strong SALLJ categories were defined with a local threshold of the northerly wind speed maximum at each station. The strongest SALLJs were frequently observed at nighttime, while weaker SALLJs were likely to occur at any time of the day. A stabilization of the nocturnal boundary layer was observed between weak and moderate cases whereas a destabilization between moderate and strong cases were found near the time of the wind speed maximum (06 UTC) at Santiago del Estero and Resistencia stations. A deepening of the convective boundary layer and an increase of its mean temperature between weak and strong category during the previous afternoon to nocturnal SALLJs, reveal a possible contribution to the mechanisms that generate the maximum wind speed.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2021

Summertime low clouds mediate the impact of the large-scale circulation on Arctic sea ice

The rapid Arctic sea ice retreat in the early 21 st century is believed to be driven by several dynamic and thermodynamic feedbacks, such as ice-albedo feedback and water vapor feedback. However, the role of clouds in these feedbacks remains unclear since the causality between clouds and these processes is complex. Here, we use NASA CERES satellite products and NCAR CESM model simulations to suggest that summertime low clouds have played an important role in driving sea ice melt by amplifying the adiabatic warming induced by a stronger anticyclonic circulation aloft. The upper-level high pressure regulates low clouds through stronger downward motion and increasing lower troposphere relative humidity. The increased low clouds favor more sea ice melt via emitting stronger longwave radiation. Then decreased surface albedo triggers a positive ice-albedo feedback, which further enhances sea ice melt. Considering the importance of summertime low clouds, accurate simulation of this process is a prerequisite for climate models to produce reliable future projections of Arctic sea ice.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2022

Particle emissions from mobile sources: Discussion of ultrafine particle emissions and definition

There is no universally agreed upon definition for ultrafine particles (UFP). Commonly used definitions for UFP are either particle number below 100 nm or total particle number, but without an agreed upon lower cut point. For example, a lower cut point of 3 nm compared to 10 nm could result in a substantially higher count. Another definition for UFP is total particle mass but without a commonly agreed upon aerodynamic diameter upper cut point, e.g., below 100 nm, 200 nm, 300 nm, etc. Yet another definition is lung deposited surface area weighted by lung deposition fraction, found mainly in the particle mobility diameter range from 20 to 400 nm. It is clear from these definitions that there are inconsistencies in the way UFP is used and defined in the literature. Sometimes these metrics are well correlated, sometimes not. In this paper we suggest three exposure metrics: UFP-N, UFP-M, and UFP-S, that we believe will add clarity. These metrics represent total number, mass, and surface area below 500 nm, respectively. For surface area and mass, the 500 nm cut point can be either aerodynamic or mobility diameter depending upon measurement methodology. For all metrics, this cut point captures nearly all of the primary particle emissions from mobile sources. Furthermore, UFP-N would include a lower cut point of 3–6 nm and would not require an upper size cut point because there is very little particle number above 500 nm or even above 100 nm. Thus, our definition of UFP-N is consistent with the current definition of ultrafine number except for, importantly, the specification of a lower cut point. These exposure metrics can help facilitate consistency in the characterization of both short- and long-term UFP ambient exposures and associated health effects in epidemiological studies.

42 ENGINEERING↗
DOE OSTI2021

Indirect Measurements of the Composition of Ultrafine Particles in the Arctic Late-Winter

In this work, we present indirect measurements of size-resolved ultrafine particle composition conducted during the Ocean-Atmosphere-Sea Ice-Snowpack (OASIS) Campaign in Utqiagvik, Alaska, during March 2009. This study focuses on measurements of size-resolved particle hygroscopicity and volatility measured over two periods of the campaign. During a period that represents background conditions in this location, particle hygroscopic growth factors (HGF) at 90% relative humidity ranged from 1.45 to 1.51, which combined with volatility measurements suggest a mixture of ~30% ammoniated sulfates and ~70% oxidized organics. Two separate regional ultrafine particle growth events were also observed during this campaign. Event 1 coincided with elevated levels of H2SO4 and solar radiation. These particles were highly hygroscopic (HGF = 2.1 for 35 nm particles), but were almost fully volatilized at 160 °C. The air masses associated with both events originated over the Arctic Ocean. Event 1 was influenced by the upper marine boundary layer (200–350 m AGL), while Event 2 spent more time closer to the surface (50–150 m AGL) and over open ocean leads, suggesting marine influence in growth processes. Event 2 particles were slightly less hygroscopic (HGF = 1.94 for 35 nm and 1.67 for 15 nm particles), and similarly volatile. We hypothesize that particles formed during both events contained 60–70% hygroscopic salts by volume, with the balance for Event 1 being sulfates and oxidized organics for Event 2. These observations suggest that primary sea spray may be an important initiator of ultrafine particle formation events in the Arctic late-winter, but a variety of processes may be responsible for condensational growth.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2021

How does vertical wind shear influence entrainment in squall lines?

The influence of vertical wind shear on updraft entrainment in squall lines is not well understood. To address this knowledge gap, a suite of high-resolution idealized numerical model simulations of squall lines were run in various vertical wind shear (hereafter “shear”) environments to study the effects of shear on entrainment in deep convective updrafts. Low-level horizontal mass flux into the leading edge of the cold pool was strongest in the simulations with the strongest low-level shear. These simulations consequently displayed wider updrafts, less entrainment-driven dilution, and larger buoyancy than the simulations with comparatively weak low-level shear. An analysis of vertical accelerations along trajectories that passed through updrafts showed larger net accelerations from buoyancy in the simulations with stronger low-level shear, which demonstrates how less entrainment-driven dilution equated to stronger updrafts. Additionally, the effects of upper-level shear on entrainment and updraft vertical velocities were generally less pronounced than the effects of low-level shear. We argue that in addition to the outflow boundary-shear interactions and their effect on updraft tilt established by previous authors, decreased entrainment-driven dilution is yet another beneficial effect of strong low-level shear on squall line updraft intensity.

37 INORGANIC, ORGANIC, PHYSICAL, AND ANALYTICAL CH↗
DOE OSTI2026

Prompt Searches for Very-high-energy γ -Ray Counterparts to IceCube Astrophysical Neutrino Alerts

The search for sources of high-energy astrophysical neutrinos can be significantly advanced through a multimessenger approach, which seeks to detect the γ-rays that accompany neutrinos as they are produced at their sources. Multimessenger observations have so far provided the first evidence for a neutrino source, illustrated by the joint detection of the flaring blazar TXS 0506+056 in high-energy (E > 1 GeV) and very-high-energy (VHE; E > 100 GeV) γ-rays in coincidence with the high-energy neutrino IceCube-170922A, identified by IceCube. Imaging atmospheric Cherenkov telescopes (IACTs), namely FACT, H.E.S.S., MAGIC, and VERITAS, continue to conduct extensive neutrino target-of-opportunity follow-up programs. These programs have two components: follow-up observations of single astrophysical neutrino candidate events (such as IceCube-170922A), and observation of known γ-ray sources after the identification of a cluster of neutrino events by IceCube. Here we present a comprehensive analysis of follow-up observations of high-energy neutrino events observed by the four IACTs between 2017 September (after the IceCube-170922A event) and 2021 January. Our study found no associations between γ-ray sources and the observed neutrino events. We provide a detailed overview of each neutrino event and its potential counterparts. Furthermore, a joint analysis of all IACT data is included, yielding combined upper limits on the VHE γ-ray flux.

79 ASTRONOMY AND ASTROPHYSICS↗
DOE OSTI2023

Influence of monsoon low pressure systems on South Asian disasters and implications for disaster prediction

Transient atmospheric vortices called monsoon low pressure systems (LPS) generate a large fraction of total rainfall over South Asia and often produce extreme precipitation. Here, we assess the influence of these storms on the occurrence of disasters, using information from the Emergency Events Database (EM-DAT) that we geocoded and then associated with LPS tracks. We show that more than half of hydro-meteorological disasters over South Asia during summer are associated with these LPS events. Weaker LPS (which are called monsoon lows) occur more frequently than stronger LPS (called monsoon depressions), but the stronger LPS produce a larger number of disasters. Furthermore, although many prior studies have shown that the peak rainfall in LPS falls southwest of the vortex centre, the disasters are concentrated on the northern edge of the LPS tracks, along the Himalayas and upper basins of the Ganga and Brahmaputra rivers. Observations show a sharp peak in rainfall on the day of disasters, confirming the physical link between LPS and these hydro-meteorological disasters. A similar peak in rainfall is found in weather forecasts made up to five days before the disaster, suggesting that short-term precipitation forecasts can be useful in disaster preparation.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗