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Search indexed NASA NTRS and DOE OSTI research on propulsion, heat transfer, battery materials and energy systems. Follow report and document links to the original sources.

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NASA NTRS2016

Quantitative Validation of the Integrated Medical Model (IMM) for ISS Missions

Lifetime Surveillance of Astronaut Health (LSAH) provided observed medical event data on 33 ISS and 111 STS person-missions for use in further improving and validating the Integrated Medical Model (IMM). Using only the crew characteristics from these observed missions, the newest development version, IMM v4.0, will simulate these missions to predict medical events and outcomes. Comparing IMM predictions to the actual observed medical event counts will provide external validation and identify areas of possible improvement. In an effort to improve the power of detecting differences in this validation study, the total over each program ISS and STS will serve as the main quantitative comparison objective, specifically the following parameters: total medical events (TME), probability of loss of crew life (LOCL), and probability of evacuation (EVAC). Scatter plots of observed versus median predicted TMEs (with error bars reflecting the simulation intervals) will graphically display comparisons while linear regression will serve as the statistical test of agreement. Two scatter plots will be analyzed 1) where each point reflects a mission and 2) where each point reflects a condition-specific total number of occurrences. The coefficient of determination (R2) resulting from a linear regression with no intercept bias (intercept fixed at zero) will serve as an overall metric of agreement between IMM and the real world system (RWS). In an effort to identify as many possible discrepancies as possible for further inspection, the -level for all statistical tests comparing IMM predictions to observed data will be set to 0.1. This less stringent criterion, along with the multiple testing being conducted, should detect all perceived differences including many false positive signals resulting from random variation. The results of these analyses will reveal areas of the model requiring adjustment to improve overall IMM output, which will thereby provide better decision support for mission critical applications.

validation↗

NASA NTRS2018

Validation of the Nasa Integrated Medical Model: a Space Flight Medical Risk Prediction Tool

The Human Research Program funded the development of the Integrated Medical Model (IMM) to quantify the medical component of overall mission risk. The IMM uses Monte Carlo simulation methodology, incorporating space flight and ground medical data, to estimate the probability of mission medical outcomes and resource utilization. To determine the credibility of IMM output, the IMM project team completed two validation studies that compared IMM predicted output to observed medical events from a selection of Shuttle Transportation System (STS) and International Space Station (ISS) missions. The validation study results showed that the IMM underpredicted the occurrence of ~10% of the modeled medical conditions for the STS missions and overpredicted ~20% of the modeled medical conditions for the ISS missions. These findings imply that the strength of IMM predictions to inform decisions depends on simulated mission specifications including length. This discrepancy could result from medical recording differences between ISS and STS that possibly influence observed incidence rates, IMM combining all "mission type" data as constant occurrence rate or fixed proportion across both mission types, misspecification of symptoms to conditions, and gaps in the literature informing the model. Some of these issues will be alleviated by updating the IMM source data through incorporation of the observed validation data.

medical equipment↗

NASA NTRS2018

Validation of the NASA Integrated Medical Model: a Space Flight Medical Risk Prediction Tool

risk assessment↗

NASA NTRS2019

A Terrestrial Validation of ICESat Elevation Measurements and Implications for Global Reanalyses

The primary goal of NASA's Ice, Cloud, and land Elevation Satellite (ICESat) mission was to detect centimeter-level changes in global ice sheet elevations at the spatial scale of individual ice streams. Confidence in detecting these small signals requires careful validation over time to characterize the uncertainty and stability of measured elevations. A common validation approach compares altimeter elevations to an independently characterized and stable reference surface. Using a digital elevation model (DEM) from geodetic surveys of one such surface, the salar de Uyuni in Bolivia, we show that ICESat elevations at this location have a 0.0-centimeter bias relative to the WGS84 ellipsoid, 4.0-centimeter (1-sigma) uncertainty overall, and 1.8-centimeter uncertainty under ideal conditions over short (50 kilometer) profiles. We observe no elevation bias between ascending and descending orbits, but we do find that elevations measured immediately after transitions from low to high surface albedo may be negatively biased. Previous studies have reported intercampaign biases (ICBs) between various ICESat observation campaigns, but we find no statistically significant ICBs or ICB trends in our data. We do find a previously unreported 3.1-centimeter bias between ICESat's Laser 2 and Laser 3, and we find even larger interlaser biases in reanalyzed data from other studies. For an altimeter with an exact repeat orbit like ICESat, we also demonstrate that validation results with respect to averaged elevation profiles along a single ground track are comparable to results obtained using reference elevations from an in situ survey.

Laser Ranging↗

NASA NTRS2020

Analytical Redundancy Using Kalman Filters for Rocket Engine Sensor Validation

The use of sensor redundancy is crucial in aerospace systems to maintain safe, reliable operation. While hardware redundancy is more common in application, analytical redundancy can provide a viable alternative in systems where the installation of multiple redundant sensors is not viable. To this end, the use of Kalman filters to analytically validate sensor measurements within rocket engines was explored. First, a dynamic model of the RS 25 engine, a derivative of the Space Shuttle Main Engine (SSME), was reduced to a subset of relations, focused around the main combustion chamber pressure. These relations were used within the Kalman filter algorithm to generate an estimate of sensor measurements to be compared with true measurements for data validation purposes. By using a bank of Kalman filters, the residuals between the estimated and true measurements were used to detect and isolate sensor faults. Through fault simulations, the sensor validation performance of this Kalman filter bank design was compared to a hardware redundancy check. Sensor bias and drift faults of various magnitudes were injected into nominal RS 25 engine test data. Results for both approaches show comparable fault detection with most bias faults found nearly instantaneously by both algorithms. Drift fault detection results show certain cases where one algorithm is faster than the other. The key advantage of the Kalman filter algorithm is shown in fault isolation performance where it can isolate faults between two redundant sensors while the hardware redundancy comparisons cannot.

sensors↗

NASA NTRSDate not supplied

CFD Validation Experiments: Toward a Broader Perspective

The current literature considers a CFD validation experiment synonymously with a particular type of wind tunnel test. By drawing on the experience of the authors, this paper makes a case for broadening the definition to include a more balanced and synergistic exploitation of computational and physical testing techniques. The concept of validation dialog is introduced which, together with technique verification, is considered a key enabler in the pursuit of an improved CFD predictive capability. An outline of a lifecycle for a CFD validation experiment is also proposed to consolidate the thinking. The result, it is reasoned, will encourage improved engagement with a broader range of stakeholders and wider recognition of the value of the outcomes of what might otherwise be considered studies of lesser importance. In turn, this is expected to encourage the adoption of more systematic approaches to complex problems, such that they are more readily broken down into smaller, more focused endeavors, while at the same time making such activities easier to fund.

CFD↗

NASA NTRS2022

Verification and Validation of Hybridspectral Radiometry Obtained from an Unmanned Surface Vessel (USV) in the Open and Coastal Oceans

The hardware and software capabilities of the compact-profiling hybrid instrumentation for radiometry and ecology (C-PHIRE) instruments on an unmanned surface vessel (USV) are evaluated. Both the radiometers and USV are commercial-off-the-shelf (COTS) products, with the latter being only minimally modified to deploy the C-PHIRE instruments. The hybridspectral C-PHIRE instruments consist of an array of 18 multispectral microradiometers with 10 nm wavebands spanning 320–875 nm plus a hyperspectral compact grating spectrometer (CGS) with 2048 pixels spanning 190–1000 nm. The C-PHIRE data were acquired and processed using two architecturally linked software packages, thereby allowing lessons learned in one to be applied to the other. Using standard data products and unbiased statistics, the C-PHIRE data were validated with those from the well-established compact-optical profiling system (C-OPS) and verified with the marine optical buoy (MOBY). Agreement between algorithm variables used to estimate colored dissolved organic matter (CDOM) absorption and chlorophyll a concentration were also validated. Developing and operating novel technologies, such as the C-PHIRE series of instruments, deployed on a USV increase the frequency and coverage of optical observations, which are required to fully support the present and next-generation validation exercises in radiometric remote sensing of aquatic ecosystems.

Hybridspectral↗

NASA NTRS2022

Unifying the Validation of Ambient Solar Wind Models

Progress in space weather research and awareness needs community-wide strategies and procedures to evaluate our modeling assets. Here we present the activities of the Ambient Solar Wind Validation Team embedded in the COSPAR ISWAT initiative. We aim to bridge the gap between model developers and end-users to provide the community with an assessment of the state-of-the-art in solar wind forecasting. To this end, we develop an open online platform for validating solar wind models by comparing their solutions with in situ spacecraft measurements. The online platform will allow the space weather community to test the quality of state-of-the-art solar wind models with unified metrics providing an unbiased assessment of progress over time. In this study, we propose a metadata architecture and recommend community-wide forecasting goals and validation metrics. We conclude with a status update of the online platform and outline future perspectives.

Space weather↗

NASA NTRSDate not supplied

Validation of Gas-Liquid Sharp Interface Model in Loci-Stream for Propellant Tank Self-pressurization under Normal Gravity

Deep space missions require advances in cryogenic fluid management (CFM) for long term storage of propellants. One of the important phenomena is self-pressurization due to heat leakages into the tank. Managing self-pressurization is one of the key technologies for deep space exploration and long-term space missions. The complex interactions involving natural convection, thermal gradients, turbulence, and phase change near the gas-liquid interface cannot be modeled using reduced order or nodal analysis models, and 3-D CFD analyses are necessary to fully characterize the dynamics. CFD analyses pose their own difficulties. The requisite CFD tool to tackle this problem need to be modular with the ability to incorporate various physics models, efficient, and computationally scalable for simulating flight size tanks. In this paper, we discuss modeling approach for self-pressurization in situations where the liquid interface is static and validate NASA MSFC’s Loci-Stream CFD solver for predicting self-pressurization in a test tank in normal gravity. This tank was designed to capture quantifiable and accurate data for understanding various two-phase fluid phenomena and to validate modeling tools. Specifically, we demonstrate the capability of the Loci-Stream solver with a two-phase sharp-interface treatment to predict self-pressurization of a tank with an unperturbed gas-liquid interface. This validation highlights the reliability of our modeling approach and our solver to serve as a design and analysis tool for NASA’s CFM application needs.

cryogenic fluid management↗

NASA NTRSDate not supplied

Validation of Gas-Liquid Sharp Interface Model in Loci-Stream for Propellant Tank Self-pressurization under Normal Gravity

Deep space missions require advances in cryogenic fluid management (CFM) for long term storage of propellants. One of the important phenomena is self-pressurization due to heat leakages into the tank. Managing self-pressurization is one of the key technologies for deep space exploration and long-term space missions. The complex interactions involving natural convection, thermal gradients, turbulence, and phase change near the gas-liquid interface cannot be modeled using reduced order or nodal analysis models, and 3-D CFD analyses are necessary to fully characterize the dynamics. CFD analyses pose their own difficulties. The requisite CFD tool to tackle this problem need to be modular with the ability to incorporate various physics models, efficient, and computationally scalable for simulating flight size tanks. In this paper, we discuss modeling approach for self-pressurization in situations where the liquid interface is static and validate NASA MSFC's Loci-Stream CFD solver for predicting self-pressurization in a test tank in normal gravity. This tank was designed to capture quantifiable and accurate data for understanding various two-phase fluid phenomena and to validate modeling tools. Specifically, we demonstrate the capability of the Loci-Stream solver with a two-phase sharp-interface treatment to predict self-pressurization of a tank with an unperturbed gas-liquid interface. This validation highlights the reliability of our modeling approach and our solver to serve as a design and analysis tool for NASA's CFM application needs.

cryogenic fluid management↗

NASA NTRSDate not supplied

Validation of Two-phase Flow Modeling Techniques in Loci-Stream using Axial Jet Pressure Control and Autogenous Pressurization Experiment

Improvements to computational fluid dynamics modeling of cryogenic fluid management operations are presented with experimental validations. Modeling improvements includes utilizing improved delayed detaches eddy simulation to more effectively model turbulence compared to the Reynolds-averaged Navier Stokes modeling, modeling temperature dependent tank solid properties to capture large variation in thermodynamic properties at cryogenic conditions, modeling real gas equation of state for hydrogen instead of ideal gas behavior, and an on-going effort to improve interface turbulence transport for the volume of fluid method. Two flight-scale ground tests, five K-site tank axial jet pressure control experiments and an Engineering Design Unit tank autogenous pressurization experiment are validated and show the effectiveness of the improved modeling techniques. The successful validation establishes further trust in these models for flight project support and provides a pathway for maturation of in-development interface turbulence damping model for the volume of fluid method for more generalized applications.

CFD↗

NASA NTRSDate not supplied

Validation of Two-Phase Flow Modeling Techniques in Loci-Stream Using Axial Jet Pressure Control and Autogenous Pressurization Experiments

CFD↗

DOE OSTI2024

Verification, Validation, and Calibration Through a Causal Lens

While typical validation and verification approaches focus on identifying the associations between data elements using statistical and machine learning methods, the novel methods in this paper focus instead on identifying causal relationships between data elements. Statistical and machine-learning-based approaches are strictly data-driven, meaning that they provide quantitative comparison measures between data sets without explicitly considering the hypotheses behind them. This can lead to the erroneous conclusion that, if two data sets are close enough, the models that generated them are similar. In addition, when experimental and simulated data differ to an extent that fails to meet the acceptance criteria, calibration techniques are used to tweak simulation model parameters to reduce the gap between the two types of data. This produces the false expectation that a simulation model will match reality. The methods presented in this paper move away from these strictly data-driven methods for validation and calibration toward more robust, model-driven methods based on causal inference. Causal inference aims to identify the possible mechanisms that might have generated data. Thus, this analysis targets the prediction of the effects when one (or more) of the identified mechanisms are altered. There are many approaches to identify, quantify, and illustrate causal relationships. For the scope of this paper, directed graphs are employed as causal models. If the directed graph lacks cycles, it is known as a directed acyclic graph. A node in such a graph represents an observed data element while a directed edge connecting two nodes represents a causal relationship between two variables. The developed causal methods are designed to extract causal models from simulation models and experimental data. Causal models capture the causal relationships between data elements (e.g., simulated and experimental data). In this context, validation and verification are performed by comparing causal models. The proposed approach does not only inform system analysts on how a simulation model matches real-world data, but also identifies elements of the simulation model that should be revised when discrepancies between simulation and experimental data are observed. Through these causal methods, analysts can identify the portion of the model equation(s) that are behind an edge connecting two variables. Hence, once the structural differences between causal models have been determined, model calibration can occur by changing only those model parameters that impact the identified causal relationships.

97 MATHEMATICS AND COMPUTING↗

DOE OSTI2025

EMT Model Validation of a 2 MVA PV Inverter Using Transient and Frequency-Domain Hardware Testing: Preprint

This paper presents results and new insights gained from a hardware test campaign on a 2 MVA PV inverter for validating its vendor-supplied EMT model. The test campaign was conducted using a 7 MVA grid simulator and a 2 MW PV emulator. It considered both time-domain transient tests and frequency-domain impedance scan tests. The paper highlights the inadequacy of transient tests in capturing all critical resonance modes of the inverter, and the effectiveness of the frequency scan testing in addressing this problem. The paper shows the frequency scan testing as an effective tool for EMT model validation of IBR units which can highlight inaccuracies in the EMT models that are easy to overlook when model validation is performed using only the time-domain transient tests such as voltage ride-through and phase jump tests.

24 POWER TRANSMISSION AND DISTRIBUTION↗

DOE OSTI2026

Simulation and Experimental Validation of an Integrated Heat Pump – Thermal Energy Storage Using a Room-Temperature Phase Change Material

As the dependence on electrical heat pumps (HPs) and intermittent renewables increases, grid strains are expected to grow. This necessitates an energy storage system to reduce the mismatch between energy supply and demand. Thus, a proposed dual-mode commercially available 14.1 kW HP was integrated with a single 22°C phase change material (PCM) thermal storage system (TES) to load-shift both cooling and heating loads. The HP-TES system was manufactured and experimentally tested using a novel test matrix based on AHRI 210/240 psychrometric conditions. Furthermore, transient dual-mode system-level HP-TES models were developed in Modelica and validated using the experimental test conditions. Base HP cooling and heating experimental tests at ambient temperatures of 35°C and −8.3°C show that the modified HP-TES maintained the rated system capacity and performance. The HP-TES discharge provided approximately 30% and 50% reductions in cooling and heating demand, respectively. The transient HP-TES models predicted system capacity and total power input for discharge and recharge operating modes within ±4% mean percentage error, and recharge power input within ±2%, with maximum errors occurring at the equipment startup. During system operation, the sources of model deviations are first-order polynomial fits of the PCM digital scanning calorimetry (DSC) data and unaccounted supercooling in the PCM during solidification. Nonetheless, the model predictions agree with the experimental tests, demonstrating the availability of robust, accurate, and validated transient models that can be used for further validation and the development of system controls.

25 ENERGY STORAGE↗

DOE OSTI2024

Experimental validation of a Kalman observer using linearized OpenFAST and a fully instrumented 1:70 model

Abstract To enable real‐time monitoring and control strategies for floating offshore wind turbines, accurate information about the state of the system is needed. This paper details the application of a Kalman filter to the UMaine VolturnUS‐S floating wind platform to provide accurate state estimates in real time using minimal system measurements. The midfidelity nonlinear simulation tool OpenFAST was used to generate the underlying linear state‐space model for the Kalman filter. This linear model and its limitations are demonstrated through comparison with experimental data collected on a 1:70 froude‐scaled model of the floating platform and tower. Using a selection of five measurements from the real system, a Kalman filter was developed to provide estimates for the remaining system states and measurements. These estimates were then validated against the experimental values collected from testing of the scale model. Validation of the Kalman filter produced accurate estimates of surge, heave, and tower base bending moment, measurements of which were not available to the Kalman filter. Performance of the Kalman filter was tested and validated over a range of sea conditions from rated wind speed to storm events and demonstrated robustness in the Kalman filter to maintain accuracy across all operating conditions despite significant error in the underlying linear model for extreme conditions.

17 WIND ENERGY↗

DOE OSTI2026

Validation Data for Benchmarking Wire Arc Additive Manufacturing Process Simulations

Residual stresses cause geometric distortion and affect mechanical performance of additively manufactured structures, yet they are notoriously difficult to assess and predict. Distortion (warpage) can drive parts outside dimensional tolerance limits, leading to part rejection or rework. For parts that meet tolerance, locked-in residual stress fields can affect structural integrity during operation, particularly subcritical cracking by fatigue, creep, or corrosion. This work develops benchmark data for a common additive manufacturing process (Wire Arc Additive Manufacturing) that can be applied for calibration and validation of physical process models that predict residual stress fields. The work includes design of two different samples of differing geometry, detailed manufacturing records for a set of physical samples, and an extensive set of residual stress measurement data developed using two diverse techniques (the contour method and neutron diffraction). An initial application of the work is also reported, where a modeling challenge was issued to secure residual stress model predictions from two independent laboratories that were blind to residual stress measurement data. These initial blind residual stress predictions show significant discrepancies relative to the measurement data, illustrating the potential value of the underlying validation data. An open repository for this work, including the sample designs, manufacturing process records, and the residual stress data, is also provided for future application in non-blind validation efforts.

36 MATERIALS SCIENCE↗

DOE OSTI2025

Predicting the evolution of biomass bulk density through feedstock preprocessing: Discrete element modeling, regression analysis, and pilot-scale validation

Bulk density is an important material property of biomass feedstocks, influencing handling, storage, transport costs, and conversion efficiency. In this study, predictive regression models for loose and tapped bulk densities of Alamo and Cave-in-Rock switchgrass are developed using a comprehensive dataset generated via calibrated bonded-sphere discrete element method (DEM) simulations. Here, a key contribution of this study is the use of a DEM-based approach, which correlates density with moisture content and particle size distribution parameters and enables analysis across a continuous particle size range, overcoming limitations of purely experimental data. For comparison, regression models are also developed using only experimental data from pilot-scale runs at the Biomass Feedstock National User Facility at Idaho National Laboratory. Validation against pilot-scale data showed reasonable prediction accuracy for both model types, particularly for smaller particle sizes (post-secondary grinding). While the experimental model showed slightly better performance matching the validation data in some cases, the DEM-based model benefits from a much larger dataset, reduced predictor multicollinearity, and continuous parameter coverage, highlighting the utility of validated simulation models for developing robust predictive tools for biomass preprocessing applications.

09 - BIOMASS FUELS↗