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At least 325 records · Page 18

Meteoroids at the Moon: Orbital Properties, Surface Vaporization, and Impact Ejecta Production

We use a dynamical model to characterize the monthly and yearly variations of the lunar meteoroid environment for meteoroids originating from short and long‐period comets and the main‐belt asteroids. Our results show that if we assume the meteoroid mass flux of 43.3 tons per day at Earth, inferred from previous works, the mass flux of meteoroids impacting the Moon is 30 times smaller, approximately 1.4 tons per day, and shows variations of the order of 10% over a year. The mass flux difference is due to the combined effect of the smaller cross‐section of the Moon (factor of 13.46) and Earth's larger gravitational focusing (factor of 2–2.5). The lunar surface is vaporized by these impactors at an average impact vaporization flux of 11.6 × 10−16 g·cm−2·s−1, providing a significant source for the rarefied lunar exosphere. Our model predicts acceptable vaporization rates and reproduces the local time dependence of observations of the dust ejecta cloud, measured by the Lunar Dust Experiment on board NASA's Lunar Atmosphere and Dust Environment (LADEE) satellite. However, the predicted density of the lunar ejecta cloud is four orders of magnitude larger than reported values by LADEE. This discrepancy might be attributed to a much lower yield from meteoroid impacts on fluffy lunar regolith and/or a lower detection efficiency of the LADEE dust detector. We suggest an upper limit of 30 cm per million years for the soil gardening rate from small meteoroids.

Petr Pokorny↗

Use of Design of Experiments in Determining Neural Network Architectures for Loss of Control Detection

We describe empirical methods for selecting a neural network architecture to implement belief state inference on generic commercial transport aircraft. We highlight a case study on the planning, execution, and analysis of a set of experiments to determine the configurations of a conditional variational autoencoder (CVAE). Our main contribution is the application of a structured method that can be used for machine learning in many aerospace applications. This method optimizes the structure and training parameters of a neural network for belief state inference, using Design of Experiments (DOE) statistical methodologies. The motivation for this specific DOE analysis was to identify the appropriate hyperparameters for measuring the CVAE reconstruction probability and latent space, such that the measurements can be used to infer qualitative state changes for the aircraft. We demonstrate that this process yields information about a trained neural network’s utility for this specific application, along with a quantifiable range of certainty. We execute 84 experiments using loss-of-control flight maneuver data from the NASA T 2 aircraft, demonstrating that this empirical process allows us to construct cheap and simple models with specific attributes amenable to belief state inference in aerospace applications.

Loss of Control↗

The response of C1O radical concentrations to variations in NO2 radical concentrations in the lower stratosphere

The respose of ClO concentrations to changes in NO2 concentrations has been inferred from simultaneous observations of (ClO), (NO), (NO2) and (O3) in the midlatitude lower stratosphere. This analysis demonstrates that (ClO) is inversely correlated with (NO2), consistent with formation and photolysis of (ClONO2). A factor of ten range in the concentration if NO2 was sampled (0.1 to 1 x 10(exp 9) mol/cu cm), with a comparable range in the ratio of (ClO) to total available inorganic chlorine (1% less than or equal to (ClO)/(Cl(sub y)) less than or equal to 5%. This analysis leads to an estimate of (ClONO2)/(Cl(sub y)) = 0.12 (x/2), in the mid-latitude, lower-stratospheric air masses sampled.

Stimfle, R. M.↗

The Response of ClO Radical Concentrations to Variations in NO2 Radical Concentrations in the Lower Stratosphere

The response of ClO concentrations to changes in NO2 concentrations has been inferred from simultaneous observations of [ClO], [NO], [NO2] and [O3] in the mid-latitude lower stratosphere. This analysis demonstrates that [ClO] is inversely correlated with [NO2], consistent with formation and photolysis of [ClONO2]. A factor of ten range in the concentration of NO2 was sampled (0.1 to 1 x 10(exp 9) mol/cc), with a comparable range in the ratio of [ClO] to total available inorganic chlorine (1% <= [ClO]/[Cl(sub y)] <= 5%). This analysis leads to an estimate of [ClONO2]/[Cl(sub y)] = 0.12 (x/divided by 2), in the mid-latitude, lower-stratospheric air masses sampled.

Stimpfle, R. M.↗

How well was total ozone abundance inferred with Mariner 9?

Ozone is a key to understanding atmospheric chemistry on Mars. Over 20 photochemical models of the martian atmosphere have been published, and O3 is often used as a benchmark for these models. O3 abundance has been inferred from instrumentation on several spacecraft, with the most complete coverage provided by Mariner 9. The Mariner 9 UV spectrometer scanned from 2100 to 3500 Angstroms with a spectral resolution of 15 Angstroms and an effective field-of-view of approximately 300 sq km. The only atmospheric absorption in the 2000 to 3000 A wavelength region was previously assumed to come from the Hartley band system of ozone, which has an opacity of order unity at winter polar latitudes. Therefore, the amount of ozone was inferred by fitting this absorption feature with laboratory data of ozone absorption. Mars O3 shows strong seasonal and latitudinal variation, with column abundances ranging from 0.2 micron-atm at equatorial latitudes to 60 micron-atm over northern winter polar latitudes (1 micron-atm is a column abundance of 2.689 x 10 exp 15 molecules cm(exp -2)). However, the O3 abundance is never great enough to significantly affect atmospheric temperatures or surface temperatures and frost amounts. Some of the previously-inferred O3 abundances are shown. A radiative transfer computer model is used to re-examine the Mariner 9 UV spectra. Assuming a constant mixing ratio for O3 and no chemical or radiative interaction between O3 and clouds/dust, it is shown that when typical amounts of dust and cloud are present that significant underestimation of O3 abundance occurs. A factor of 3 times as much O3 is needed to generate the same spectrum the spacecraft would measure for a cloudy, dusty atmosphere as for a clear atmosphere. If the scattering properties of martian clouds and dust were well known, then their appearance would not be a problem, as a model would be capable of retrieving the O3 abundance. However, these properties are not well known, which raises doubts about the effectiveness of the UV reflectance spectroscopy technique for measuring O3 abundance on Mars.

Lindner, Bernhard Lee↗

Laboratory measurements of microwave absorption from gaseous atmospheric constituents under conditions for the outer planets

Quite often the interpretive work on the microwave and millimeter-wave absorption profiles, which are inferred from radio occultation measurements or radio astronomical observations of the outer planets, employs theoretically-derived absorption coefficients to account for contributions to the observed opacity from gaseous constituents. Variations of the actual absorption coefficients from those which are theoretically derived, especially under the environmental conditions characteristic of the outer planets, can result in significant errors in the inferred abundances of the absorbing constituents. The recognition of the need to make laboratory measurements of the absorptivity of gases such as NH3, CH4, and H2O in a predominantly H2 atmosphere, under temperature and pressure conditions simulating the outer planets' atmospheres, and at wavelengths corresponding to both radio occultation and radio astronomical observations, has led to the development of a facility capable of making such measurements at Georgia Tech. The laboratory measurement system, the measurement techniques, and the proposed experimental regimen for Winter 1985 are described.

Steffes, Paul G.↗

Use of Design of Experiments in Determining Neural Network Architectures for Loss of Control Detection

We describe empirical methods for selecting a neural network architecture to implement belief state inference on generic commercial transport aircraft. We highlight a case study on the planning, execution, and analysis of a set of experiments to determine the configurations of a conditional variational autoencoder (CVAE). Our main contribution is the application of a structured method that can be used for machine learning in many aerospace applications. This method optimizes the structure and training parameters of a neural network for belief state inference, using Design of Experiments (DOE) statistical methodologies. The motivation for this specific DOE analysis was to identify the appropriate hyperparameters for measuring the CVAE reconstruction probability and latent space, such that the measurements can be used to infer qualitative state changes for the aircraft. We demonstrate that this process yields information about a trained neural network’s utility for this specific application, along with a quantifiable range of certainty. We execute 84 experiments using loss-of-control flight maneuver data from the NASA T-2 aircraft, demonstrating that this empirical process allows us to construct cheap and simple models with specific attributes amenable to belief state inference in aerospace applications.

Loss of Control↗

Whole Earth Telescope observations of V471 Tauri - The nature of the white dwarf variations

Time-series photometric observations of the binary star V471 Tauri were conducted using the Whole Earth Telescope observing network. The purpose was to determine the mechanism responsible for causing the 555 and 277 s periodic luminosity variations exhibited by the white dwarf in this binary. Previous observers have proposed that either g-mode pulsations or rotation of an accreting magnetic white dwarf could cause the variations, but were unable to decide which was the correct model. The present observations have answered this question. Learning the cause of the white dwarf variations has been possible because of the discovery of a periodic signal at 562 s in the Johnson U-band flux of the binary. By identifying this signal as reprocessed radiation and using its phase to infer the phase of the shorter wavelength radiation which produces it, made it possible to compare the phase of the 555 s U-band variations to the phase of the X-ray variations. It was found that U-band maximum coincides with X-ray minimum. From this result it was concluded that the magnetic rotator model accurately describes the variations observed, but that models involving g-mode pulsations do not.

Clemens, J. C.↗

Optical, near, infrared and ultraviolet monitoring of the Seyfert 1 galaxy Markarian 335

Preliminary results of a multifrequency monitoring campaign for the bright, Seyfert 1 galactic nuclei Mkn335 are presented. Nearly uniform sampling at 3 day intervals is achieved quasi simultaneously at each wavelength band. Wavelength dependent variability is seen at the 20 to 30 percent level. Interpretation of variability in terms of geometrically thin, optically thick accretion disk models is discussed. The inferred blackhole masses and accretion rates are discussed. Possible correlation between continuum and emission line variations is discussed.

Shrader, Chris R.↗

The distribution of particulate material on Mars

The surface materials on Mars were extensively studied using a variety of spacecraft and Earth-based remote sensing observations. These measurements include: (1) diurnal thermal measurements, used to determine average particle size, rock abundance, and the presence of crusts; (2) radar observations, used to estimate the surface slope distributions, wavelength scale roughness, and density; (3) radio emission observations, used to estimate subsurface density; (4) broadband albedo measurements, used to study the time variation of surface brightness and dust deposition and removal; and (5) color observations, used to infer composition, mixing, and the presence of crusts. Remote sensing observations generally require some degree of modeling to interpret, making them more difficult to interpret than direct observations from the surface. They do, however, provide a means for examining the surface properties over the entire planet and a means of sampling varying depths within the regolith. Albedo and color observations only indicate the properties of the upper-most few microns, but are very sensitive to thin, sometimes emphemeral dust coatings. Thermal observations sample the upper skin depth, generally 2 to 10 cm. Rock abundance measurements give an indirect indication of surface mantling, where the absence of rocks suggests mantles of several meters. Finally, radar and radio emission data can penetrate several meters into the surface, providing an estimate of subsurface density and roughness.

Christensen, Philip R.↗

Does UV instrumentation effectively measure ozone abundance?

Measurements of O3 on Mars provide significant information about the chemistry and composition of the atmosphere, including long-term changes. The most extensive and accurate data were inferred from the Mariner 9 UV spectrometer experiment. Mars O3 shows strong seasonal and latitudinal variation, with column abundances ranging from 0.2 microns at equatorial latitudes to 60 microns over the northern winter polar latitudes (1 micron-atm is a column abundance of 2.689 x 10(exp 15) molecules cm(exp-2)). The Mariner 9 UV spectrometer scanned from 2100 to 3500 Angstroms in one of its two spectral channels every 3 seconds with a spectral resolution of 15 Angstroms and an effective field-of-view of approximately 300 km(exp 2). Measurements were made for almost half a Martian year, with winter and spring in the Northern Hemisphere and summer and fall in the Southern Hemisphere. The detectability limit of the spectrometer was approximately 3 microns of ozone. The UV spectrometer on Mariner 9 was incapable of penetrating the dust during dust storms; the single-scattering albedo and phase function of airborne dust and cloud ice are not known to the degree required to extract the small UV signal reflected up from near the surface. The reflectance spectroscopy technique would also have difficulty detecting the total column abundance of O3 in cases where large dust abundances exist together with the polar hood, especially at high latitudes where large solar zenith angles magnify those optical depths; yet these cases would contain the maximum O3, based on theoretical results. It is quite possible that the maximum O3 column abundance observed by Mariner 9 of 60 microns is common. In fact, larger quantities may exist in some of the colder areas with optically thick clouds and dust. As the Viking period often had more atmospheric dust loading than did that of Mariner 9, the reflectance spectroscopy technique may even have been incapable of detecting the entire O3 column abundance during much of the Mars year that Viking observed, particularly at high latitudes.

Lindner, Bernhard Lee↗

Patterns of seismic activity preceding large earthquakes

A mechanical model of seismic faults is employed to investigate the seismic activities that occur prior to major events. The block-and-spring model dynamically generates a statistical distribution of smaller slipping events that precede large events, and the results satisfy the Gutenberg-Richter law. The scaling behavior during a loading cycle suggests small but systematic variations in space and time with maximum activity acceleration near the future epicenter. Activity patterns inferred from data on seismicity in California demonstrate a regional aspect; increased activity in certain areas are found to precede major earthquake events. One example is given regarding the Loma Prieta earthquake of 1989 which is located near a fault section associated with increased activity levels.

Shaw, Bruce E.↗

Constraining particle acceleration in Sgr A? with simultaneous GRAVITY, Spitzer, NuSTAR, and Chandra observations

We report the time-resolved spectral analysis of a bright near-infrared and moderate X-ray flare of Sgr A⋆. We obtained light curves in the M, K, and H bands in the mid- and near-infrared and in the 2 − 8 keV and 2 − 70 keV bands in the X-ray. The observed spectral slope in the near-infrared band is νLν ∝ ν0.5 ± 0.2; the spectral slope observed in the X-ray band is νLν ∝ ν−0.7 ± 0.5. Using a fast numerical implementation of a synchrotron sphere with a constant radius, magnetic field, and electron density (i.e., a one-zone model), we tested various synchrotron and synchrotron self-Compton scenarios. The observed near-infrared brightness and X-ray faintness, together with the observed spectral slopes, pose challenges for all models explored. We rule out a scenario in which the near-infrared emission is synchrotron emission and the X-ray emission is synchrotron self-Compton. Two realizations of the one-zone model can explain the observed flare and its temporal correlation: one-zone model in which the near-infrared and X-ray luminosity are produced by synchrotron self-Compton and a model in which the luminosity stems from a cooled synchrotron spectrum. Both models can describe the mean spectral energy distribution (SED) and temporal evolution similarly well. In order to describe the mean SED, both models require specific values of the maximum Lorentz factor γmax, which differ by roughly two orders of magnitude. The synchrotron self-Compton model suggests that electrons are accelerated to γmax ∼ 500, while cooled synchrotron model requires acceleration up to γmax ∼ 5 × 104. The synchrotron self-Compton scenario requires electron densities of 1010 cm−3 that are much larger than typical ambient densities in the accretion flow. Furthermore, it requires a variation of the particle density that is inconsistent with the average mass-flow rate inferred from polarization measurements and can therefore only be realized in an extraordinary accretion event. In contrast, assuming a source size of 1 RS, the cooled synchrotron scenario can be realized with densities and magnetic fields comparable with the ambient accretion flow. For both models, the temporal evolution is regulated through the maximum acceleration factor γmax, implying that sustained particle acceleration is required to explain at least a part of the temporal evolution of the flare.

R. Abuter↗

Use of Design of Experiments and Rule-Based Inference in Determining Neural Network Architectures for Loss of Control Detection

In this work, we describe methods for selecting the neural network architectures and input spaces to implement belief state inference on generic commercial transport aircraft. First, we highlight a case study on the planning, execution, and analysis of a set of experiments to determine the configurations of a conditional variational autoencoder (CVAE). We present a structured method that can be used in a number of aerospace applications, to optimize the structure and training parameters of the CVAE for belief state inference, using Design of Experiments (DOE) statistical methodologies. The motivation for this specific DOE was to identify the appropriate hyperparameters for measuring the CVAE reconstruction probability and latent space, such that the measurements can be used to infer qualitative state changes for the aircraft. We demonstrate that this process yields information about a trained neural network’s utility for this specific application, along with a quantifiable range of certainty. We execute 84 experiments using loss-of-control flight maneuver data from a NASA T-2 aircraft, demonstrating that this empirical process allows us to construct cheap and simple models with specific attributes amenable to belief state inference in aerospace applications. While theoretically, we could create a single CVAE with an input space the size of all measurable flight variables and environmental dynamics, it becomes intractable to use such a neural network in an in-situ intelligent multi-agent system. Using the recommendations from our case study, we introduce a technical approach for feasibly describing the belief space by (1) identifying significant statistical relationships among flight variables using rule induction, (2) using a set of rules that cover all features to define the input space of multiple CVAEs, and (3) forming a belief space based on the joint probability density of their collective latent spaces. This results in a series of relatively small matrix multiplications that can be performed in real time, as opposed to large matrix computations in a single CVAE. We demonstrate the application of this approach on the T-2 flight loss-of control experiments, using the architecture and hyperparameter recommendations from the case study. We compare the utilities of an individual CVAE trained on all flight variables and multiple CVAEs defined on subsets of flight variables for detecting qualitative changes in flight. We demonstrate that the use of multiple CVAEs with smaller input spaces permits the CVAE to capture more granular relationships in the latent space, permitting better state space characterization and loss-of-control detection.

Design of experiments↗

Spectral variation of optical depth at Tucson, Arizona between August 1975 and December 1977

A technique proposed by King and Byrne (1976) for inferring the daily value of the total ozone content of the atmosphere is applied to spectral optical depth measurements obtained at Tucson for a 29-month period between August 1975 and December 1977. The selection of wavelength regions appropriate for aerosol optical depth determinations in the visible and near infrared is discussed, and monthly averages of the total and aerosol optical depths are presented for five wavelengths between 0.4400 and 0.8817 microns. Finally, daily values of total ozone content are presented for the entire 133-day data set.

King, M. D.↗

Wind-Related Modification of Some Small Impact Craters on Mars

Inferred wind-related modifications of impact craters are observed in the vicinity of the Mare Pathfinder (MPF) site and in other regions of Mars. Mars Orbiter Camera (MOC) images show three types of inferred wind-modified morphologies for craters 0.3-1 km in diameter Such modifications could be related to seasonal variations of the strongest winds and a possible paleowind regime. Geomorphic mapping of Big Crater at the MPF shows evidence of former aeolian modification of the crater rim and interiors similar to smaller craters in the area. The morphologic patterns are in good agreement with the results from the Mars Regional Atmospheric Modeling Simulation (MRAMS) of topographically forced wind circulation and atmosphere surface interactions generated by flow over small craters. Simulations show that the maximum surface stress is on the downwind crater rim, consistent with inferred wind modification of the crater rim seen in MOC images. The trend of the Inferred paleowind regime at the MPF site cannot be explained by a change In the global atmospheric circulation resulting ~ from changes in Mars obliquity. We suggest that this wind regime could be associated with a regional meteorological pattern that is not modeled by global scale circulation, An alternative explanation is that Mars spin axis was in a different geographic position than it is at present.

Kuzmin, Ruslan O.↗

Fossil preservation and the stratigraphic ranges of taxa

The incompleteness of the fossil record hinders the inference of evolutionary rates and patterns. Here, we derive relationships among true taxonomic durations, preservation probability, and observed taxonomic ranges. We use these relationships to estimate original distributions of taxonomic durations, preservation probability, and completeness (proportion of taxa preserved), given only the observed ranges. No data on occurrences within the ranges of taxa are required. When preservation is random and the original distribution of durations is exponential, the inference of durations, preservability, and completeness is exact. However, reasonable approximations are possible given non-exponential duration distributions and temporal and taxonomic variation in preservability. Thus, the approaches we describe have great potential in studies of taphonomy, evolutionary rates and patterns, and genealogy. Analyses of Upper Cambrian-Lower Ordovician trilobite species, Paleozoic crinoid genera, Jurassic bivalve species, and Cenozoic mammal species yield the following results: (1) The preservation probability inferred from stratigraphic ranges alone agrees with that inferred from the analysis of stratigraphic gaps when data on the latter are available. (2) Whereas median durations based on simple tabulations of observed ranges are biased by stratigraphic resolution, our estimates of median duration, extinction rate, and completeness are not biased.(3) The shorter geologic ranges of mammalian species relative to those of bivalves cannot be attributed to a difference in preservation potential. However, we cannot rule out the contribution of taxonomic practice to this difference. (4) In the groups studied, completeness (proportion of species [trilobites, bivalves, mammals] or genera [crinoids] preserved) ranges from 60% to 90%. The higher estimates of completeness at smaller geographic scales support previous suggestions that the incompleteness of the fossil record reflects loss of fossiliferous rock more than failure of species to enter the fossil record in the first place.

NASA Program Exobiology↗

Global, seasonal surface variations from satellite radiance measurements

Global, daily, visible, and infrared radiance measurements from the NOAA-5 Scanning Radiometer (SR) are analyzed for the months of January, April, July, and October 1977 to infer surface radiative properties. A radiative transfer model that simulates the spectral and angular characteristics of the NOAA-5 SR measurements is used to retrieve monthly mean surface visible reflectances and temperature at 25 km resolution. These surface properties were found sufficiently accurate for simulation of clear sky radiances to determine global, seasonal variations in cloudiness. Further comparisons of these results with other data highlight the analysis difficulties and radiative model shortcomings that must be overcome to monitor regional and seasonal variations of earth's surface. These preliminary results also provide an estimate of the magnitude of these variations.

Rossow, William B.↗