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At least 325 records · Page 18

Home energy management under realistic and uncertain conditions: A comparison of heuristic, deterministic, and stochastic control methods

We report home energy management systems (HEMS) have been shown to reduce energy bills and to provide grid services including peak demand reduction and demand flexibility. However, uncertainty in residential energy systems is a significant issue and can reduce the benefits of a HEMS to the homeowner or grid operator. Sources of uncertainty include weather forecasts, predictions of energy-related occupant activities (e.g., hot water draws), and parameter estimation for the building envelope and energy-consuming equipment. This paper tackles the problem of uncertainty by developing a framework that simulates HEMS in uncertain conditions and evaluates the performance of multiple control strategies. A linear, reduced-order residential building model for model predictive control applications is derived and compared to a full-order model. Stochastic model predictive control is shown to perform better than deterministic and heuristic methods when considering realistic forecasts with uncertainty. The framework can evaluate the performance of HEMS in real-world applications, which can help de-risk HEMS deployment.

32 ENERGY CONSERVATION, CONSUMPTION, AND UTILIZATI↗

Forecast of Wildfire Potential Across California USA Using a Transformer

Wildfires are a major issue facing the United States, a matter further exacerbated by an ever-changing climate. In California alone, wildfires are responsible for billions of dollars in damages and take lives each year. Accurately predicting fire danger conditions allows preparation awareness before wildfires start. Transformers are a class of deep learning models designed to identify patterns in sequential datasets. In recent years, transformers have gained popularity through their impressive performance in natural language processing and other applications of signal recognition. This analysis demonstrates the ability of a transformer with a residual connection to forecast fire danger potential over the state of California. Wildland fire potential index (WFPI) maps collected from the US Geological Survey database from January 1st 2020 to December 31st 2023 were used to tune, train and evaluate the transformer. Meteorological inputs (provided by Daymet daily weather and climatological summaries), the normalized difference vegetation index (NDVI) (calculated from the Moderate Resolution Imaging Spectroradiometer (MODIS)), and outputs from the Scott and Burgman fire behavior fuel models (to characterize maps of fuel types), were used as inputs. Our results show that a transformer can effectively emulate the US Forest Service modeled WFPI maps of California USA for four week long forecasts over the month of July, 2023, with correlations ranging from 0.85 – 0.98.

Limber, Russell [ORNL]↗

GHEP WIBT (Guidelines for Home Energy Professionals Weatherization Installer Badges Toolkit) [SWR-20-69]

The National Renewable Energy Laboratory (NREL) and the U.S. Department of Energy's (DOE) Weatherization Assistance Program (WAP) are collaborating with the home energy retrofit industry to support the development of skilled workers. The Installer Badges Toolkit provides a flexible, customizable, and voluntary approach to training and skills recognition for WAP implementers, utility programs, private-sector workers, and contractors. In Fiscal Year 2018, DOE, along with the Crew Leader scheme committee, determined the Retrofit Installer Technician (RIT) Job Task Analysis (JTA) could be eliminated and its tasks inserted in the Crew Leader JTA. The RIT tasks became the basis of the Installer Badges. The Badges Toolkit was updated in 2020 to add licensing and copyright agreements. Users must cite the copyright information when using or distributing copies of the Badges Toolkit in any way. The technical content has remained unchanged from previous versions of the Badges Toolkit. The Toolkit for home retrofits consists of 25 Badges, each representing different energy efficiency tasks that an installer could perform on a home. Each Badge defines the desired outcome, criteria to verify, applicable material requirements, and references to Standard Work Specifications (SWS) or other relevant standards. The Badges provide a consistent approach to training by ensuring that installers in different regions are learning the same skills nationwide. Organizations can also customize the Toolkit by choosing only those Badges that are relevant to their program. The Badges Toolkit includes five pieces: "How to Use the Badges Toolkit" provides a brief overview of how a Grantee, Subgrantee, or training provider may approach using the toolkit. The "Badges Toolkit: Worksheet" includes what to consider when determining whether and how to best incorporate the Badges into a weatherization assistance program. The "Crew Leader Job Task Analysis Spreadsheet" indicates how the Badges align with specific areas of the JTA. The "Installer Badges Passport" features separate pages for each Badge, which include places for the installer and the supervisor/trainer to record the number of times a task has been successfully completed. The "Installer Badges Verification Criteria" includes sample inspection checklists for each Badge. These can be modified as needed based on approved variance requests or more stringent requirements. They also provide a basis for consistent inspections and awarding of Badges. Note: All elements of the Badges Toolkit are designed for use by potential program implementers. They are not off-the-shelf products intended for immediate deployment. Program implementers must review and modify as needed, revise verification criteria to match local requirements, complete worksheets, and otherwise define the parameters of their own badging program.

Desai, Jal↗

Bias Correction and Statistical Downscaling of Future Solar Irradiance Projections Using the NSRDB

Assessing renewable energy resources under future climate scenarios has been highlighted to understand potential impacts of future climate change in renewable generation on the power sector. Climate model projection has been recognized by the renewable energy community as a useful data set to analyze the impacts of future climate change on renewable resources. However, future climate projections generated from general circulation models (GCMs) contain inherent biases that need to be corrected for accurate analysis of future projections of climate variables. In addition, the coarse spatiotemporal resolution of GCMs needs to be improved for regional climate studies. In this work, we develop statistical methods to downscale future projections of global horizontal irradiance (GHI) in a computationally efficient way. Our approach builds statistical downscaling models that correct bias of climate projection of GHI and downscale the future GHI projection from daily-scale to hourly-scale. The National Solar Radiation Database (NSRDB) is used to calibrate the statistical models and validate the downscaled GHI projections across the contiguous United State (CONUS). Preliminary results show that the statistical approach efficiently downscales climate projections of GHI with a nBIAS of 3%, nMAE of 34 % and nRMSE of 46% calculated against NSRDB for CONUS. This study describes the implemented methodology and initial results as well as future research to create high-resolution climate data sets for solar energy applications.

analytical models↗

Optical array for high-quality imaging in harsh environments

Methods and apparatus are disclosed for producing high quality images in uncontrolled or impaired environments. In some examples of the disclosed technology, groups of cameras for high dynamic range (HDR), polarization diversity, and optional other diversity modes are arranged to concurrently image a common scene. For example, in a vehicle checkpoint application, HDR provides discernment of dark objects inside a vehicle, while polarization diversity aids in rejecting glare. Spectral diversity, infrared imaging, and active illumination can be applied for better imaging through a windshield. Preprocessed single-camera images are registered and fused. Faces or other features of interest can be detected in the fused image and identified in a library. Impairments can include weather, insufficient or interfering lighting, shadows, reflections, window glass, occlusions, or moving objects.

42 ENGINEERING↗

Optical array for high-quality imaging in harsh environments

Methods and apparatus are disclosed for producing high quality images in uncontrolled or impaired environments. In some examples of the disclosed technology, groups of cameras for high dynamic range (HDR), polarization diversity, and optional other diversity modes are arranged to concurrently image a common scene. For example, in a vehicle checkpoint application, HDR provides discernment of dark objects inside a vehicle, while polarization diversity aids in rejecting glare. Spectral diversity, infrared imaging, and active illumination can be applied for better imaging through a windshield. Preprocessed single-camera images are registered and fused. Faces or other features of interest can be detected in the fused image and identified in a library. Impairments can include weather, insufficient or interfering lighting, shadows, reflections, window glass, occlusions, or moving objects.

Baba, Justin S.↗

Installer Badges Toolkit and Visualization Resources

NREL staff (Jal Desai and Cory Chovanec) will introduce the U.S. Department of Energy Weatherization Assistance Program (DOE WAP) Installer Badges Toolkit. The presentation will cover topics such as how this toolkit can be customized and implemented in a program, the potential benefits of using the Badges, and lessons learned from other implementers. This session will also engage participants to share their experiences regarding their existing training and how they are bringing their workforce up to speed in their building envelope-related programs. The Installer Badges Toolkit consists of 25 Badges, each representing different energy efficiency tasks that an installer could perform on a home. Each Badge defines the desired outcome, criteria to verify the work, applicable material requirements, and references to DOE's Standard Work Specifications (SWS) or other relevant standards. Workers earn Badges by completing each task and receiving approval from a qualified supervisor. The Badges provide a consistent approach to training by ensuring that installers are learning the same skills nationwide. Organizations can also customize the Toolkit by choosing only those Badges that are relevant to their program. NREL staff will also showcase new visualization resources like the Single-family and manufactured home job aids and the Single-family 3D house tool.

ENERGY PLANNING, POLICY, AND ECONOMY↗

An ensemble data assimilation modeling system for operational outdoor microalgae growth forecasting

Microalgae have received increasing attention as a potential feedstock for biofuel or biobased products. Forecasting the microalgae growth is beneficial for managers in planning pond operations and harvesting decisions. This study proposed a biomass forecasting system comprised of the Huesemann Algae Biomass Growth Model (BGM), the Modular Aquatic Simulation System in Two Dimensions (MASS2), ensemble data assimilation (DA), and numerical weather prediction Global Ensemble Forecast System (GEFS) ensemble meteorological forecasts. The novelty of this study is to seek the use of ensemble DA to improve both BGM and MASS2 model initial conditions with the assimilation of biomass and water temperature measurements and consequently improve short-term biomass forecasting skills. This study introduces the theory behind the proposed integrated biomass forecasting system, with an application undertaken in pseudo-real-time in three outdoor ponds cultured with Chlorella sorokiniana in Delhi, California, United States. Results from all three case studies demonstrate that the biomass forecasting system improved the short-term (i.e., 7-day) biomass forecasting skills by about 60% on average, comparing to forecasts without using the ensemble DA method. Given the satisfactory performances achieved in this study, it is probable that the integrated BGM-MASS2-DA forecasting system can be used operationally to inform managers in making pond operation and harvesting planning decisions.

59 BASIC BIOLOGICAL SCIENCES↗

Cloud, Aerosol, and Radiative Properties Over the Western North Atlantic Ocean

This study examines the atmospheric properties of weather states (WSs) derived from the International Satellite Cloud Climatology Project (ISCCP) over the Western North Atlantic Ocean. In particular, radiation and aerosol data corresponding to two sites in the study domain, Pennsylvania State University and Bermuda, were examined to characterize the atmospheric properties of the various satellite-derived WSs. At both sites, the fair weather WS was most prevalent, followed by the cirrus WS. Differences in the seasonality of the various WSs were observed at the two sites. Fractional sky cover and effective shortwave cloud transmissivity derived from ground-based radiation measurements were able to capture differences among the satellite-derived WSs. Speciated aerosol optical thicknesses (AOT) from the Modern-Era Retrospective Analysis for Research and Applications, version 2 (MERRA-2) were used to investigate potential differences in aerosol properties among the WSs. The clear sky WS exhibited below-average seasonal values of AOT at both sites year-round, as well as relatively high rates of occurrence with low AOT events. In addition, the clear sky WS showed above-average contributions from dust and black carbon to the total AOT year-round. Finally, transitions between various WSs were examined under low, high, and mid-range AOT conditions. The most common pathway was for the WSs to remain in the same state after a 3 hr interval. Some WSs, such as midlatitude storms, deep convection, middle top, and shallow cumulus, were more prevalent as ending states under high AOT conditions. This work motivates examining differences in aerosol properties between WSs in other regions.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

Impact of Momentum Perturbation on Convective Boundary Layer Turbulence

Mesoscale-to-microscale coupling is an important tool for conducting turbulence-resolving multiscale simulations of realistic atmospheric flows, which are crucial for applications ranging from wind energy to wildfire spread studies. Different techniques are used to facilitate the development of realistic turbulence in the large-eddy simulation (LES) domain while minimizing computational cost. Here, we explore the impact of a simple and computationally efficient Stochastic Cell Perturbation method using momentum perturbation (SCPM-M) to accelerate turbulence generation in boundary-coupled LES simulations using the Weather Research and Forecasting model. We simulate a convective boundary layer (CBL) to characterize the production and dissipation of turbulent kinetic energy (TKE) and the variation of TKE budget terms. Furthermore, we evaluate the impact of applying momentum perturbations of three magnitudes below, up to, and above the CBL on the TKE budget terms. Momentum perturbations greatly reduce the fetch associated with turbulence generation. When applied to half the vertical extent of the boundary layer, momentum perturbations produce an adequate amount of turbulence. However, when applied above the CBL, additional structures are generated at the top of the CBL, near the inversion layer. The magnitudes of the TKE budgets produced by SCPM-M when applied at varying heights and with different perturbation amplitudes are always higher near the surface and inversion layer than those produced by No-SCPM, as are their contributions to the TKE. This study provides a better understanding of how SCPM-M reduces computational costs and how different budget terms contribute to TKE in a boundary-coupled LES simulation.

17 WIND ENERGY↗

In silico assessment of the potential of basalt amendments to reduce N 2 O emissions from bioenergy crops

Abstract The potential of large‐scale deployment of basalt to reduce N 2 O emissions from cultivated soils may contribute to climate stabilization beyond the CO 2 ‐removal effect from enhanced weathering. We used 3 years of field observations from maize ( Zea mays ) and miscanthus ( Miscanthus × giganteus ) to improve the nitrogen (N) module of the DayCent model and evaluate the potential of basalt amendments to reduce N losses and increase yields from two bioenergy crops. We found 20%–60% improvement in our N 2 O flux estimates over previous model descriptions. Model results predict that the application of basalt would reduce N 2 O emissions by 16% in maize and 9% in miscanthus. Lower N 2 O emissions responded to increases in the N 2 :N 2 O ratio of denitrification with basalt‐induced increases in soil pH, with minor contributions from the impact of P additions (a minor component of some basalts) on N immobilization. The larger reduction of N 2 O emissions in maize than in miscanthus was likely explained by a synergistic effect between soil pH and N content, leading to a higher sensitivity of the N 2 :N 2 O ratio to changes in pH in heavily fertilized maize. Basalt amendments led to modest increases in modeled yields and the nitrogen use efficiency (i.e., fertilizer‐N recover in crop production) of maize but did not affect the productivity of miscanthus. However, enhanced soil P availability maintained the long‐term productivity of crops with high nutrient requirements. The alleviation of plant P limitation led to enhanced plant N uptake, thereby contributing to lower microbial N availability and N 2 O emissions from crops with high nutrient requirements. Our results from the improved model suggest that the large‐scale deployment of basalt, by reducing N 2 O fluxes of cropping systems, could contribute to the sustainable intensification of agriculture and enhance the climate mitigation potential of bioenergy with carbon capture and storage strategies.

59 BASIC BIOLOGICAL SCIENCES↗

HERON

HERON is a modeling toolset and plugin for RAVEN to accelerate stochastic technoeconomic assessment of the economic viability of various grid-energy system configurations, especially with application to electrical grids and integrated energy systems (IES). The frameworks enabling this toolset are INL's RAVEN and its TEAL plugin. The toolset includes automated RAVEN workflow generation tools for performing stochastic analysis and optimization driven by technoeconomic factors. The workflows generated employ RAVEN for parametric or optimizing study of grid component characteristics, and again for stochastic sampling of regulated and deregulated markets, load, and weather histories. The toolset further provides methods for economically-optimal dispatch of system components given the stochastic samples of market, load, and weather histories. The toolset allows assembling of existing and new models through the RAVEN interface to the Modelica process modeling language.

Talbot, PaulW↗

A Binomial Stochastic Framework for Efficiently Modeling Discrete Statistics of Convective Populations

Abstract Understanding the coupling between convective clouds and the general circulation, as well as addressing the gray zone problem in convective parameterization, requires insight into the genesis and maintenance of spatial patterns in cumulus cloud populations. In this study, a simple toy model for recreating populations of interacting convective objects as distributed over a two‐dimensional Eulerian grid is formulated to this purpose. Key elements at the foundation of the model include i) a fully discrete formulation for capturing discrete behavior in convective properties at small population sample sizes, ii) object age‐dependence for representing life‐cycle effects, and iii) a prognostic number budget allowing for object interactions and co‐existence of multiple species. A primary goal is to optimize the computational efficiency of this system. To this purpose the object birth rate is represented stochastically through a spatially aware Bernoulli process. The same binomial stochastic operator is applied to horizontal advection of objects, conserving discreteness in object number. The applicability to atmospheric convection as well as behavior implied by the formulation is assessed. Various simple applications of the BiOMi model (Binomial Objects on Microgrids) are explored, suggesting that important convective behavior can be captured at low computational cost. This includes i) subsampling effects and associated powerlaw scaling in the convective gray zone, ii) stochastic predator‐prey behavior, iii) the downscale turbulent energy cascade, and iv) simple forms of spatial organization and convective memory. Consequences and opportunities for convective parameterization in next‐generation weather and climate models are discussed.

37 INORGANIC, ORGANIC, PHYSICAL, AND ANALYTICAL CH↗

Network-Scale Ubiquitous Volume Estimation Using Tree-Based Ensemble Learning Methods

Currently ubiquitous volume data for roadway networks remains the key missing dimension in traffic operations. Most volume data are average annual daily traffic (AADT) measures derived from the Highway Performance Monitoring System (HPMS). Although methods to factor the AADT to hourly averages for typical day of week exist, actual volume data is limited to a sparse collection of locations in which volumes are continuously recorded. This paper/poster explores the use of state-of-art machine learning techniques to estimate accurate volume measures that span the highway network providing ubiquitous coverage in space, and point-in-time measures for a specific date and time. Three tree-based ensemble learning models, random forest (RF), gradient boost machine (GBM), and extreme gradient boost (XGBoost), were tested for volume estimation by learning from combined dataset of commercial probe data provided by TomTom, the FHWA's Travel Monitoring Analysis System (TMAS) data, and other infrastructure attributes such as number of lanes, speed limit, and weather. The methods were tested on major corridors and freeways in the metropolitan area of Denver. All three machine learning methods were able to provide hourly volume estimates 24 hours a day, 7 days a week, and 365 days a year with around 18% mean absolute error to true volume and about 5% of error with respect to roadway capacity. The low error measures allow the potential application by transportation agencies.

33 ADVANCED PROPULSION SYSTEMS↗

SULI End of Summer Presentation

This presentation made on Power Point is a brief summary of my work enhancing the Supervisory Control and Data Acquisition (SCADA) architecture for Idaho National Lab’s Critical Infrastructure Test Range Complex (CITRC). This work was part of an on-going project to create a digital twin of CITRC that will be implemented for resiliency research. Resiliency is growing more important as extreme weather, aging infrastructure, and increasing load all exert stress on the United States power grid. This presentation highlights how I documented the existing devices and data flow on site and then updated specific device settings to better support the needs of the project. It also examines future use of this data in the digital twin data warehouse (DeepLynx), and future Artificial Intelligence and Advanced Distribution Management System applications. It will be presented to the B751 Water and Energy Systems Analysis group at INL during my last week.

24 - POWER TRANSMISSION AND DISTRIBUTION↗

WRF Modelling of Deep Convection and Hail for Wind Power Applications

Deep convection and the related occurrence of hail, intense precipitation and wind gusts represent a hazard to a range of energy infrastructure including wind turbine blades. Wind turbine blade leading edge erosion (LEE) is caused by the impact of falling hydrometeors onto rotating wind turbine blades. It is a major source of wind turbine maintenance costs and energy losses from wind farms. In the United States Southern Great Plains (SGP), where there is widespread wind energy development, deep convection and hail events are common, increasing the potential for precipitation-driven LEE. A 25-day Weather Research and Forecasting (WRF) model simulation conducted at convection-permitting resolution and using a detailed microphysics scheme is carried out for the SGP to evaluate the effectiveness in modelling the wind and precipitation conditions relevant to LEE potential. WRF output for these properties is evaluated using radar observations of precipitation (including hail) and reflectivity, in situ wind speed measurements and wind power generation. This research demonstrates some skill for the primary drivers of LEE. Wind speeds, rainfall rates and precipitation totals show good agreement with observations. Here, the occurrence of precipitation during power producing wind speeds is also shown to exhibit fidelity. Hail events frequently occur during periods when wind turbines are rotating and are especially important to LEE in the SGP. The presence of hail is modelled with a mean proportion correct of 0.77 and an odds ratio 4.55. Further research is needed to demonstrate sufficient model performance to be actionable for the wind energy industry and there is evidence for positive model bias in cloud reflectivity.

17 WIND ENERGY↗

Advancing Concentrating Solar Thermal Modeling Using System Advisor Model (SAM)

Concentrating solar thermal (CST) technologies play a critical role in enabling dispatchable power and high-temperature industrial heat applications. Accurate and flexible modeling tools are essential for evaluating system performance, guiding technology research and development, and informing investment decisions. The National Laboratory of the Rockies's System Advisor Model (SAM) is a widely used techno-economic simulation platform for CST systems, providing detailed performance and financial modeling capabilities for multiple CST system configurations. SAM integrates physics-based performance models with financial analysis to simulate the behavior of complex energy systems under realistic operating conditions. For CST technologies (including tower, parabolic trough, and linear Fresnel), SAM enables hourly simulations using site-specific weather data that ensure feasible operating conditions and convergence of mass and energy between core system components (i.e., solar field, receiver, thermal energy storage, and power cycle). These capabilities allow researchers and developers to evaluate annual energy production, capacity factors, levelized cost of energy (LCOE), and system dispatch strategies. A key advantage of SAM lies in its flexibility for parametric analysis and large-scale computational studies. Users can vary system design parameters such as heliostat field layout, receiver dimensions, thermal energy storage capacity, power block sizing, and installation cost assumptions to investigate their impact on system performance and financial metrics. When combined with automated scripting through LK, SDKTool, or Python interfaces, SAM enables high-throughput simulation workflows that support sensitivity analysis, technology benchmarking, and optimization studies. These approaches are particularly valuable for next-generation CST concepts, where design spaces are large and system interactions are complex. Another important capability of SAM is its support for dispatch optimization and thermal energy storage modeling, which are central to the value proposition of CST technologies. The ability to simulate integrated storage and flexible power generation allows researchers to explore strategies that maximize grid value, improve capacity utilization, and enhance integration with variable resources such as photovoltaic and wind generation. This poster will present an overview of SAM's thermal system modeling capabilities including concentrating solar. Additionally, we will highlight new feature developments including: 1) implementing Google's OR-Tools optimization platform for faster and more robust dispatch optimization, 2) developing a new power load following controller for modeling behind-the-meter applications, 3) enabling direct modeling of CSP-PV hybrid systems with the inclusion of battery storage, and 4) developing a multi-receiver falling particle Gen3 system model.

14 SOLAR ENERGY↗

Development of a water source heat pump hardware-in-the-loop (HIL) testing facility for smart building applications

Over the last decade, the global fight against climate change through electrification has led to an increase in research on building heating, ventilation, and air conditioning (HVAC) systems that utilize intelligent control algorithms to provide demand-side grid service while maintaining the thermal comfort of building occupants. As the pivotalpoint between building electricity consumption and indoor thermal comfort, high-efficiency electrical heatpumps are at the center of these emerging studies, and various grid-interactive and occupant-comfort control algorithms have been developed for them. The impact of these algorithms on the heatpump operation andperformance under different weather, building load, and grid requests calls for investigation and verification via experimental tests with actual heat pumps integrated with real-time building and grid responses. This study presents a Water-Source Heat Pump Hardware-in-The-Loop (HIL) Test Facility developed with the capability to perform such tests. The hardware configuration for this testfacility introduces a hydronic system that emulates the conditions for the heat pump water-side, and a duct system that emulates conditions for the heat pump airside. Both data acquisition and emulator control are implemented through the National Instruments (NI) LabVIEW software running on an NI PXIplatform. The HIL mechanism based on the hardware-software integration that allows the testbed to communicate with a generic simulation environment is also discussed. Currently, the test facility setup includes a single heatpump and virtual building model in EnergyPlus coupled with an occupant behavioral model in MATLAB. Preliminary test results of the current setup demonstrate the building load emulator's ability to track the simulated gone temperature with a Root Mean Square Deviation (RSME) below 0.12°C (0.216°F). An uncertainty analysis based on sensor accuracies shows that the heat pump coefficient of performance (COP) can be measured with a relative uncertainty of 10.4% in cooling and 3.7% in heating. Apartfrom the current testing on a single heat pump, the test facility also provides the flexibility to include additional heat pumps to form a heat pump cluster, as well as coupling the heat pump with active thermal storage to provide enhanced demandflexibility.

Calfa, Caleb↗