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Cometary nucleus and active regions

On the basis of the icy conglomerate model of cometary nuclei, various observations demonstrate the spotted nature of many or most nuclei, i.e., regions of unusual activity, either high or low. Rotation periods, spin axes and even precession of the axes are determined. The observational evidence for variations in activity over the surfaces of cometary nuclei are listed and discussed. On June 11 the comet IRAS-ARAKI-ALCOCK approached the Earth to a distance of 0.031 AU, the nearest since C/Lexell, 1770 I, providing a unique opportunity for near-nucleus observations. Preliminary analysis of these images establishes the spin axis of the nucleus, with an oblioquity to the orbit plane of approximately 50 deg, and a lag angle of sublimation approximately 35 deg from the solar meridian on the nucleus. Asymmetries of the inner coma suggests a crazy-quilt distribution of ices with differing volatility over the surface of the nucleus. The observations of Comet P/Homes 1892 III, exhibiting two 8-10 magnitude bursts, are carefully analyzed. The grazing encounter produced, besides the first great burst, an active area on the nucleus, which was rotating retrograde with a period of 16.3hr and inclination nearly 180 deg. After the first burst the total magnitude fell less than two magnitudes from November 7 to November 30 (barely naked eye) while the nuclear region remained diffuse or complex, rarely if ever showing a stellar appearance. The fading was much more rapid after the second burst. The grazing encounter distributed a volume of large chunks in the neighborhood of the nucleus, maintaining activity for weeks.

Whipple, F. L.↗

Sublimation rates of carbon monoxide and carbon dioxide from comets at large heliocentric distances

Using a simple model for outgassing from a small flat surface area, the sublimation rates of carbon monoxide and carbon dioxide, two species more volatile than water ice that are known to be present in comets, are calculated for a suddenly activated discrete source on the rotating nucleus. The instantaneous sublimation rate depends upon the comet's heliocentric distance and the Sun's zenith angle at the location of the source. The values are derived for the constants of CO and CO2 in an expression that yields the local rotation-averaged sublimation rate as a function of the comet's spin parameters and the source's cometocentric latitude.

Sekanina, Zdenek↗

[A NASA / University Joint Venture in Space Science]

MILAGRO is a water-Cherenkov detector for observing cosmic gamma rays over a broad energy range of 100 GeV to 100 TeV. MILAGRO will be the first detector that has sensitivity overlapping both air-Cherenkov and air-shower detectors. With this detector scientists in the collaboration will study previously observed celestial sources at their known emission energies, extend these observations into a new energy regime, and search for new sources at unexplored energies. The diffuse gamma-radiation component in our galaxy, which originates from interactions of cosmic rays with interstellar gas and photons, provides important information about the density, distribution, and spectrum of the cosmic rays that pervade the interstellar medium. Events in the Compton Gamma Ray Observatory (GRO) are being observed up to about 30 GeV, differing by slightly more than order of magnitude from the low energy threshold of MILAGRO. By looking in coincidence at sources, correlated observations will greatly extend the astrophysics potential of MILAGRO and NASA's GRO. A survey of cosmic-ray observatories is being prepared for scientists and others to provide a resource and reference which describes high energy cosmic-ray research activities around the world. This summary presents information about each research group, such as names of principal investigators, number of persons in the collaboration, energy range, sensitivity, angular resolution, and surface area of detector. Similarly, a survey of gamma-ray telescopes is being prepared to provide a resource and reference which describes gamma-ray telescopes for investigating galactic diffuse gamma-ray flux currently observed in the GeV energy range, but is expected to extend into the TeV range. Two undergraduate students are compiling information about gamma-ray telescopes and high energy cosmic-ray observatories for these surveys. Funding for this project was provided by the Arkansas Space Grant Consortium. Also enclosed Appendix A, B, C, D and E.

Wold, Donald C.↗

The NASA Low-Pressure Turbine Flow Physics Program

An overview of the NASA Lewis Low-Pressure Turbine (LPT) Flow Physics Program will be presented. The program was established in response to the aero-engine industry's need for improved LPT efficiency and designs. Modern jet engines have four to seven LPT stages, significantly contributing to engine weight. In addition, there is a significant efficiency degradation between takeoff and cruise conditions, of up to 2 points. Reducing the weight and part count of the LPT and minimizing the efficiency degradation will translate into fuel savings. Accurate prediction methods of LPT flows and losses are needed to accomplish those improvements. The flow in LPT passages is at low Reynolds number, and is dominated by interplay of three basic mechanisms: transition, separation and wake interaction. The affecting parameters traditionally considered are Reynolds number, freestream turbulence intensity, wake frequency parameter, and the pressure distribution (loading). Three-dimensional effects and additional parameters, particularly turbulence characteristics like length scales, spectra and other statistics, as well as wake turbulence intensity and properties also play a role. The flow of most interest is on the suction surface, where large losses are generated as the flow tends to separate at the low Reynolds numbers. Ignoring wakes, a common flow scenario, there is laminar separation, followed by transition on the separation bubble and turbulent reattachment. If transition starts earlier the separation will be eliminated and the boundary layer will be attached leading to the well known bypass transition issues. In contrast, transition over a separation bubble is closer to free shear layer transition and was not investigated as well, particularly in the turbine environment. Unsteadiness created by wakes complicates the picture. Wakes induce earlier transition, and the calmed regions trailing the induced turbulent spots can delay or eliminate separation via shear stress modification. Three-dimensional flow physics and geometry will have strong effects. Altogether a very complex and challenging problem emerges. The objective of the program is to provide improved models and physical understanding of the complex flow, which are essential for accurate prediction of flow and losses in the LPT. Experimental, computational and analytical work as complementing and augmenting approaches are used. The program involves industry, universities and research institutes, and other government laboratories. It is characterized by strong interaction among participants, quick dissemination of results, and responsiveness to industry's needs. The presentation will describe the work elements. Highlighting some activities in progress are experiments on simulated blade suction surface in low-speed wind tunnels, on curved wall, and on a flat-plate, both with pressure gradient. In the area of computation, assessment of existing models is performed using RANS (Reynolds Averaged Navier Stokes) simulations. Laminar flow DNS was completed. Analytical studies of instability and receptivity in attached and separated flows were started. In the near future the program is moving to include wake effects and development of improved modeling. Experimental work in preparation stages are: (1) Addition of wakes to the curved tunnel experiment; (2) Low-speed rotating rig experiment on GE90 engine LPT; and (3) Transonic cascade. In the area of computation, it is expected to move from model assessment towards development of improved models. In addition, a new project of Large Eddy Simulation (LES) of LPT is to begin and will provide numerical data bases. It is planned to implement the emerging improved models in a multistage turbomachinery code and to validate against the GE90 engine LPT.

Ashpis, David E.↗

A Survey of Environmental Microbial Flora During Closed Chamber Studies

Services, Inc. and NASA Johnson Space Center, Houston, TX As NASA prepares for long-term missions aboard the International Space Station and the eventual exploration of Mars, closed-environment chambers on Earth have become important test beds for systems evaluations. During 2 separate studies of a selfcontained ecosystem containing 4 crewmembers, microbial surveys of samples from 13 surface and 3 air sites were performed. Microbial concentration of samples from surface sites with frequent water contact (e.g., urinal, sink) did not indicate significantly higher levels of contamination than drier areas, though surface cleaning by the crew may have influenced this conclusion. Changes in bacterial diversity on surface sites implied that the number of transient species was high, suggesting movement by crew activities, aerosols, or both. A non-linear relationship between bacterial diversity and enumeration from surface samples indicated that a rapid increase occurred in the number of species as cell concentration increased to 5 CFU/sq cm. Above this concentration, the number of different bacterial species varied between 11 and 16. Airborne bacteria and fungi averaged only 160 and 1 CFU/m3, respectively. Microbial contamination of the potable water system primarily consisted of 3 species of Gram negative bacteria; however, after 60 days during one study, several species of Bacillus became the dominant flora. This study suggests that under these conditions, microbial contamination in the air and water was suppressed by the life-support systems, though contamination was possible. Conversely, the crew and their activities controlled microbial levels on surfaces. Understanding the factors that affect microbial control will improve the design of microbial testing both during space flight and in analogous Earth-based environments.

Ott, C. Mark↗

NASA Dryden Status: Aerospace Control and Guidance Sub-Committee Meeting 109

NASA Dryden has been engaging in some exciting work that will enable lighter weight and more fuel efficient vehicles through advanced control and dynamics technologies. The main areas of emphasis are Enabling Light-weight Flexible Structures, real time control surface optimization for fuel efficiency and autonomous formation flight. This presentation provides a description of the current and upcoming work in these areas. Additionally, status is for the Dreamchaser pilot training activity and KQ-X autonomous aerial refueling.

Jacobson, Steven R.↗

Irrigation Characterization Improved by the Direct Use of SMAP Soil Moisture Anomalies Within a Data Assimilation System

Prior soil moisture data assimilation (DA) efforts to incorporate human management features such as agricultural irrigation has only shown limited success. This is partly due to the fact that observational rescaling approaches for bias correction used in soil moisture DA systems are less effective when unmodeled processes such as irrigation are the dominant source of systematic biases. In this article, we demonstrate an alternative approach, i.e. anomaly correction for overcoming this limitation. Unlike the rescaling approaches, the proposed method does not scale remote sensing soil moisture retrievals to the model climatology, but it extracts the temporal variability information from the retrievals. The study demonstrates this approach through the assimilation of soil moisture retrievals from the Soil Moisture Active Passive mission into the Noah land surface model. The results demonstrate that DA using the anomaly correction method can better capture the effect of irrigation on soil moisture in agricultural areas while providing comparable performance to the DA integrations using rescaling approaches in non-irrigated areas. These findings emphasize the need to reduce inconsistencies between remote sensing and the models so that assimilation methods can employ information from remote sensing more directly to develop representations of unmodeled processes such as irrigation.

soil moisture↗

Air Pollution Inputs to the Mojave Desert By Fusing Surface Mobile and Airborne in Situ and Airborne and Satellite Remote Sensing: A Case Study of Interbasin Transport With Numerical Model Validation

Deserts are fragile and highly sensitive ecosystems that increasingly are affected by upwind urban areas and industrial activities. The Los Angeles Basin (LAB) contributes to poor air quality in downwind deserts including the Mojave Desert. Few studies have investigated potential air pollution inputs to the Mojave, whose fragile ecosystem includes endangered plant and animal species. Data were collected on 19 August 2015 by a mobile air quality laboratory, AMOG (AutoMObile trace Gas) Surveyor, that observed inputs can arise from the LAB as well as the San Joaquin Valley (SJV), California. The campaign used a strong methane (CH4) plume as a tracer for the downwind fate of emissions from Bakersfield area petroleum production and also measured ozone (O3). Additional in situ concurrent airborne GHG and O3 data were collected by AJAX - Alpha Jet Atmospheric eXperiment. Both AMOG and AJAX measure winds. Mojave Desert air quality was very poor (visibility ~4 km). Based on the winds, an additional source was inferred beyond the LAB and SJV Basins. Numerical transport modeling and analysis of aerosol lidar data collected the same day by the Cloud Profiling LiDAR onboard the Earth Research-2 stratospheric airplane demonstrated that fires in Northern California were responsible, with prevailing winds transporting air southwards along the eastern Sierra Nevada Range (Bishop Valley) to the Mojave. Whereas the southern and eastern Mojave are impacted by SJV and LAB outflow, the north Mojave generally avoids these inputs. This study shows it can be affected by even distant wildfires, which likely will increase in occurrence and intensity from climate change. Thus, regulatory efforts to reduce air quality impacts on the endangered Mojave ecosystem must include wildfires and also account for the significant differences between different regions of the Mojave. Currently, there is a paucity of studies, highlighting the critical need for field research.

Ira Leifer↗

Low Cost, Low Power, Passive Muon Telescope for Interrogating Martian Sub-Surface

It has been demonstrated on Earth that a low power, passive muon detector can penetrate deep into geological structures up to several kilometers in size providing high density images of their interiors. Muon tomography is an entirely new class of planetary instrumentation that is ideally suited to address key areas in Mars Science, such as: the search for life and habitable environments, the distribution and state of water and ice and the level of geologic activity on Mars today.

Muons↗

One-Hundred-km-Scale Basins on Enceladus: Evidence for an Active Ice Shell

Stereo-derived topographic mapping of 50% of Enceladus reveals at least 6 large-scale, ovoid depressions (basins) 90-175 km across and 800-to-1500 m deep and uncorrelated with geologic boundaries. Their shape and scale are inconsistent with impact, geoid deflection, or with dynamically supported topography. Isostatic thinning of Enceladus ice shell associated with upwellings (and tidally-driven ice melting) can plausibly account for the basins. Thinning implies upwarping of the base of the shell of 10-20 km beneath the depressions, depending on total shell thickness; loss of near-surface porosity due to enhanced heat flow may also contribute to basin lows. Alternatively, the basins may overly cold, inactive, and hence denser ice, but thermal isostasy alone requires thermal expansion more consistent with clathrate hydrate than water ice. In contrast to the basins, the south polar depression (SPD) is larger (~350 wide) and shallower (~0.4-to-0.8 km deep) and correlates with the area of tectonic deformation and active resurfacing. The SPD also differs in that the floor is relatively flat (i.e., conforms roughly to the global triaxial shape, or geoid) with broad, gently sloping flanks. The relative flatness across the SPD suggests that it is in or near isostatic equilibrium, and underlain by denser material, supporting the polar sea hypothesis of Collins and Goodman. Near flatness is also predicted by a crustal spreading origin for the "tiger stripes (McKinnon and Barr 2007, Barr 2008); the extraordinary, high CIRS heat flows imply half-spreading rates in excess of 10 cm/yr, a very young surface age (~250,000 yr), and a rather thin lithosphere (hence modest thermal topography). Topographic rises in places along the outer margin of the SPD correlate with parallel ridges and deformation along the edge of the resurfaced terrain, consistent with a compressional, imbricate thrust origin for these ridges, driven by the spreading.

Schenk, Paul M.↗

Detection of soft X-rays from Alpha Lyrae and Eta Bootis with an imaging X-ray telescope

Results are presented for observations of Alpha Lyr (Vega) and Eta Boo with an imaging X-ray telescope during two rocket flights. It is found that Vega and Eta Boo are soft X-ray sources with respective luminosities of approximately 3 x 10 to the 28th erg/s (0.15-0.8 keV) and 1 x 10 to the 29th erg/s (0.15-1.5 keV). Surface X-ray luminosities of about 640,000 erg/sq cm per sec for Vega and 300,000 erg/sq cm per sec for Eta Boo are estimated and shown to fall within the range of solar coronal X-ray emission. It is concluded that in view of the substantially larger surface areas of these stars, the relatively large total soft X-ray luminosity (as compared with that of the sun) can in both cases be understood as resulting from a moderately active corona, although the Vega observation is in severe conflict with simple models for X-ray emission from single main-sequence stars.

Topka, K.↗

Laboratory studies of Kapton degradation in an oxygen ion beam

Results are presented from a preliminary laboratory investigation of the degradation of the widely used polyimide Kapton under oxygen ion bombardment. Recent space shuttle flights have shown that Kapton and some other materials exposed to the apparent ram flow of residual atmosphere (at orbital velocity in low Earth orbit) lose mass and change their optical properties. It was hypothesized that these changes are caused by chemical interaction with atomic oxygen, aided by the 5-eV impact energy of atmospheric oxygen atoms in the ram. The reaction rate under O(+) bombardment seemed to be independent of incident energy over a wide range of energies. Although the flux of thermal ions in this experiment was much greater than the accelerated flux, the observed Kapton degradation was limited to the beam area and ram flow direction. This is consistent with an activation energy above the thermal energies but well below the beam energies. The results reproduce well the material loss, optical changes, SEM surface structure, and ram directionality of the samples returned by the shuttle. These factors, along with the lack of degradation under argon ion bombardment, are convincing evidence for ram flow oxidation as the mechanism of degradation.

Ferguson, D. C.↗

Lunar base siting

As with any planetary body, the lunar surface is quite heterogeneous. There are widely dispersed sites of particular interest for known and potential resource availability, selenology, and lunar observatories. Discriminating characteristics include solar illumination, view of earth, local topography, engineering properties of the regolith and certain geological features, and local mineralogy and petrology. Space vehicle arrival and departure trajectories constitute a minor consideration. Over time, a variety of base sites will be developed serving different purposes. Resource-driven sites may see the fastest growth during the first decades of lunar development, but selection of the most favorable sites is likely to be driven by suitability for a combination of activities. As on earth, later development may be driven by geographical advantages of surface transportation routes. With the availability of near-constant sunlight for power generation, as well as permanently shadowed areas at cryogenic temperatures, polar sites are attractive because they require substantially less earth-launched mass and lower equipment complexity for an initial permanent base. Discovery of accessible volatiles reservoirs, either in the form of polar permafrost or gas reservoirs at other locations, would dramatically increase the attractiveness of any site from a logistical support and selenological point of view. Amid such speculation, no reliable evidence of such volatiles exist. More reliable evidence exists for areas of certain mineral concentrations, such as ilmenite, which could form a feedstock for some proposed resource extraction schemes. While tentative selections of advantageous base sites are made, new data from lunar polar orbiters and the Galileo polar flybys would be very helpful.

Staehle, Robert L.↗

Injection of an overdense electron beam in space

A three-dimensional particle simulation model is used to study the injection and propagation of an overdense electron beam in the vicinity of a conductor in space. Beam electrons with a density of more than 100 times the ambient electron density are modeled using large-scale plasma simulations; in these simulations the surface area of the conductor is several thousands times that of the beam cross section at the injection point. The parameters of the simulations are chosen to allow the realistic simulation of active space experiments such as the Space Shuttle's Spacelab 2 electron beam mission. These simulations confirm space observations that an overdense electron beam can at least partially escape the near vicinity of the spacecraft, even in a fully ionized plasma. Once they have escaped from the vicinity of the spacecraft, these beam electrons should be able to propagate away freely until their energy is dissipated. It is suggested that such large-scale simulations could be useful in interpreting data from space experiments.

Okuda, Hideo↗

Monodisperse Single-Material Granular Tribocharging Modeling and Experimental Validation

Charge transfer between insulating grains has been a topic of interest for many years as this phenomenon is extremely important to many areas in industry. Of particular interest to NASA is the behavior of electrically insulative dust grains such as those found on the lunar surface. Whether poured from a scoop during sample collection activities, agitated inside a drum via mining robots, or fluidized by a gas plume, particle-particle interactions between similar granular materials will be widespread on the Moon. Designers hope to have a predictive model for how dust grains are charged, transported, and deposited on flight systems to better understand issues electrostatics may cause in future missions. While difference in work function is often seen as a driver for charge transfer between two materials, this is an incomplete representation for insulative particles. Other asymmetries in the system can also lead to charge being transferred: one such being the difference between static vs dynamic particles. Experiments performed under vacuum in the Electrostatics and Surface Physics Laboratory (ESPL) clearly show that particles having more contacts with other particles tend to charge positively and particles having fewer contacts tend to charge negatively, despite being made from the same material. During these experiments, monodisperse (population of single diameter) spherical particles were held in a reservoir which was then elevated at one end to slope into a Faraday cup used to measure bulk charge of the grains. Care was taken to limit the number of spheres bouncing out of the cup, to isolate the beads from the container itself so that only grain-to-grain interactions occurred, and to assure neutrality of the beads before the experiment began. A discrete element method (DEM) modeling package already incorporating many granular mechanics interactions was augmented to include the electrostatic behaviors seen in experiments. The model can reproduce the experimental results above by tracking the number of contacts between pairs of individual grains and applying a charge transfer condition related to this contact parameter. The experimental results as well as their incorporation into the improved modeling suite will be discussed. Future work includes adding additional asymmetries into the experiments/model such as polydisperse populations of spherical particles and irregularly shaped grains.

granular↗

Monodisperse Single-Material Granular Tribocharging Modeling and Experimental Validation

Charge transfer between insulating grains has been a topic of interest for many years as this phenomenon is extremely important to many areas in industry. Of particular interest to NASA is the behavior of electrically insulative dust grains such as those found on the lunar surface. Whether poured from a scoop during sample collection activities, agitated inside a drum via mining robots, or fluidized by a gas plume, particle-particle interactions between similar granular materials will be widespread on the Moon. Designers hope to have a predictive model for how dust grains are charged, transported, and deposited on flight systems to better understand issues electrostatics may cause in future missions. While difference in work function is often seen as a driver for charge transfer between two materials, this is an incomplete representation for insulative particles. Other asymmetries in the system can also lead to charge being transferred: one such being the difference between static vs dynamic particles. Experiments performed under vacuum in the Electrostatics and Surface Physics Laboratory (ESPL) clearly show that particles having more contacts with other particles tend to charge positively and particles having fewer contacts tend to charge negatively, despite being made from the same material. During these experiments, monodisperse (population of single diameter) spherical particles were held in a reservoir which was then elevated at one end to slope into a Faraday cup used to measure bulk charge of the grains. Care was taken to limit the number of spheres bouncing out of the cup, to isolate the beads from the container itself so that only grain-to-grain interactions occurred, and to assure neutrality of the beads before the experiment began. A discrete element method (DEM) modeling package already incorporating many granular mechanics interactions was augmented to include the electrostatic behaviors seen in experiments. The model can reproduce the experimental results above by tracking the number of contacts between pairs of individual grains and applying a charge transfer condition related to this contact parameter. The experimental results as well as their incorporation into the improved modeling suite will be discussed. Future work includes adding additional asymmetries into the experiments/model such as polydisperse populations of spherical particles and irregularly shaped grains.

electrostatics↗

Photocatalytic Active Radiation Measurements and Use

Photocatalytic materials are being used to purify air, to kill microbes, and to keep surfaces clean. A wide variety of materials are being developed, many of which have different abilities to absorb various wavelengths of light. Material variability, combined with both spectral illumination intensity and spectral distribution variability, will produce a wide range of performance results. The proposed technology estimates photocatalytic active radiation (PcAR), a unit of radiation that normalizes the amount of light based on its spectral distribution and on the ability of the material to absorb that radiation. Photocatalytic reactions depend upon the number of electron-hole pairs generated at the photocatalytic surface. The number of electron-hole pairs produced depends on the number of photons per unit area per second striking the surface that can be absorbed and whose energy exceeds the bandgap of the photocatalytic material. A convenient parameter to describe the number of useful photons is the number of moles of photons striking the surface per unit area per second. The unit of micro-einsteins (or micromoles) of photons per m2 per sec is commonly used for photochemical and photoelectric-like phenomena. This type of parameter is used in photochemistry, such as in the conversion of light energy for photosynthesis. Photosynthetic response correlates with the number of photons rather than by energy because, in this photochemical process, each molecule is activated by the absorption of one photon. In photosynthesis, the number of photons absorbed in the 400 700 nm spectral range is estimated and is referred to as photosynthetic active radiation (PAR). PAR is defined in terms of the photosynthetic photon flux density measured in micro-einsteins of photons per m2 per sec. PcAR is an equivalent, similarly modeled parameter that has been defined for the photocatalytic processes. Two methods to measure the PcAR level are being proposed. In the first method, a calibrated spectrometer with a cosine receptor is used to measure the spectral irradiance. This measurement, in conjunction with the photocatalytic response as a function of wavelength, is used to estimate the PcAR. The photocatalytic response function is determined by measuring photocatalytic reactivity as a function of wavelength. In the second method, simple shaped photocatalytic response functions can be simulated with a broad-band detector with a cosine receptor appropriately filtered to represent the spectral response of the photocatalytic material. This second method can be less expensive than using a calibrated spectrometer.

Davis, Bruce A.↗

How emissions uncertainty influences the distribution and radiative impacts of smoke from fires in North America

Fires and the aerosols that they emit impact air quality, health, and climate, but the abundance and properties of carbonaceous aerosol (both black carbon and organic carbon) from biomass burning (BB) remain uncertain and poorly constrained. We aim to explore the uncertainties associated with fire emissions and their air quality and radiative impacts from underlying dry matter consumed and emissions factors. To investigate this, we compare model simulations from a global chemical transport model, GEOS-Chem, driven by a variety of fire emission inventories with surface and airborne observations of black carbon (BC) and organic aerosol (OA) concentrations and satellite-derived aerosol optical depth (AOD). We focus on two fire-detection-based and/or burned-area-based (FD-BA) inventories using burned area and active fire counts, respectively, i.e., the Global Fire Emissions Database version 4 (GFED4s) with small fires and the Fire INventory from NCAR version 1.5 (FINN1.5), and two fire radiative power (FRP)-based approaches, i.e., the Quick Fire Emission Dataset version 2.4 (QFED2.4) and the Global Fire Assimilation System version 1.2 (GFAS1.2). We show that, across the inventories, emissions of BB aerosol (BBA) differ by a factor of 4 to 7 over North America and that dry matter differences, not emissions factors, drive this spread. We find that simulations driven by QFED2.4 generally overestimate BC and, to a lesser extent, OA concentrations observations from two fire-influenced aircraft campaigns in North America (ARCTAS and DC3) and from the Interagency Monitoring of Protected Visual Environments (IMPROVE) network, while simulations driven by FINN1.5 substantially underestimate concentrations. The GFED4s and GFAS1.2-driven simulations provide the best agreement with OA and BC mass concentrations at the surface (IMPROVE), BC observed aloft (DC3 and ARCTAS), and AOD observed by MODIS over North America. We also show that a sensitivity simulation including an enhanced source of secondary organic aerosol (SOA) from fires, based on the NOAA Fire Lab 2016 experiments, produces substantial additional OA; however, the spread in the primary emissions estimates implies that this magnitude of SOA can be neither confirmed nor ruled out when comparing the simulations against the observations explored here. Given the substantial uncertainty in fire emissions, as represented by these four emission inventories, we find a sizeable range in 2012 annual BBA PM2.5 population-weighted exposure over Canada and the contiguous US (0.5 to 1.6 µg/cu. m). We also show that the range in the estimated global direct radiative effect of carbonaceous aerosol from fires (−0.11 to −0.048 W/sq. m) is large and comparable to the direct radiative forcing of OA (−0.09 W/sq. m) estimated in the Fifth Assessment Report (AR5) of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC). Our analysis suggests that fire emissions uncertainty challenges our ability to accurately characterize the impact of smoke on air quality and climate.

North America↗