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At least 325 records · Page 18

Pan-Continental Droughts in North America over the Last Millennium

Regional droughts are common in North America, but pan-continental droughts extending across multiple regions, including the 2012 event, are rare relative to single-region events. Here, the tree-ring-derived North American Drought Atlas is used to investigate drought variability in four regions over the last millennium, focusing on pan-continental droughts. During the Medieval Climate Anomaly (MCA), the central plains (CP), Southwest (SW), and Southeast (SE) regions experienced drier conditions and increased occurrence of droughts and the Northwest (NW) experienced several extended pluvials. Enhanced MCA aridity in the SW and CP manifested as multidecadal megadroughts. Notably, megadroughts in these regions differed in their timing and persistence, suggesting that they represent regional events influenced by local dynamics rather than a unified, continental-scale phenomena. There is no trend in pan-continental drought occurrence, defined as synchronous droughts in three or more regions. SW, CP, and SE (SW+CP+SE) droughts are the most common, occurring in 12 percent of all years and peaking in prevalence during the twelfth and thirteenth centuries; patterns involving three other regions occur in about 8 percent of years. Positive values of the Southern Oscillation index (La Nina conditions) are linked to SW, CP, and SE (SW+CP+SE) droughts and SW, CP, and NW (SW+CP+NW) droughts, whereas CP, NW, and SE (CP+NW+SE) droughts are associated with positive values of the Pacific decadal oscillation and Atlantic multidecadal oscillation. While relatively rare, pan-continental droughts are present in the paleo record and are linked to defined modes of climate variability, implying the potential for seasonal predictability. Assuming stable drought teleconnections, these events will remain an important feature of future North American hydroclimate, possibly increasing in their severity in step with other expected hydroclimate responses to increased greenhouse gas forcing.

anomalies↗

Sub-Seasonal Forecasting of the Stratospheric Wave Events, Sudden Stratospheric Warmings, and Their Influence on the Troposphere

Stratospheric wave events and major sudden stratospheric warming (SSW) events are well captured in high-resolution global forecasts out to 10 days. Tropospheric influences of SSW include statistically significant shifts in the storm tracks and associated surface temperature and precipitation pattern changes. Since these events can in turn influence the troposphere on time scales of 30-60 days the ability to predict these events and the subsequent long-term response on time scales beyond 10 days is of interest. Here we examine the prediction of stratospheric wave events and their evolution using the NASA GMAO (Global Modeling and Assimilation Office) Sub-Seasonal to Seasonal (S2S) system. This is a recently released subseasonal to seasonal forecast system, GEOS-S2S version 2.1. Compared to GMAO's previous system, the new version runs at higher atmospheric resolution (approximately 1/2 degree globally), contains a substantially improved model of the cryosphere, includes additional interactive aerosol model components, and the ocean data assimilation system has been replaced with a Local Ensemble Transform Kalman Filter. Results are based on a comprehensive series of hindcasts starting from the year 2000. They show that while the S2S system is not as accurate at 10 days in forecasting major SSW events as the NASA GMAO Forward Processing system, it can usefully predict stratospheric anomalies out to 20 days and the subsequent stratospheric/tropospheric evolution beyond 30 days.

Coy, L.↗

High-Resolution UV/Optical/IR Imaging of Jupiter in 2016–2019

Imaging observations of Jupiter with high spatial resolution were acquired beginning in 2016, with a cadence of 53 days to coincide with atmospheric observations of the Juno spacecraft during each perijove pass. The Wide Field Camera 3 (WFC3) aboard the Hubble Space Telescope (HST) collected Jupiter images from 236 to 925 nm in 14 filters. The Near-Infrared Imager (NIRI) at Gemini North imaged Jovian thermal emission using a lucky-imaging approach (co-adding the sharpest frames taken from a sequence of short exposures), using the M' filter at 4.7 μm. We discuss the data acquisition and processing and an archive collection that contains the processed WFC3 and NIRI data (doi:10.17909/T94T1H). Zonal winds remain steady over time at most latitudes, but significant evolution of the wind profile near 24°N in 2016 and near 15°S in 2017 was linked with convective superstorm eruptions. Persistent mesoscale waves were seen throughout the 2016–2019 period. We link groups of lightning flashes observed by the Juno team with water clouds in a large convective plume near 15°S and in cyclones near 35°N–55°N. Thermal infrared maps at the 10.8 micron wavelength obtained at the Very Large Telescope show consistent high brightness temperature anomalies, despite a diversity of aerosol properties seen in the HST data. Both WFC3 and NIRI imaging reveal depleted aerosols consistent with downwelling around the periphery of the 15°S storm, which was also observed by the Atacama Large Millimeter/submillimeter Array. NIRI imaging of the Great Red Spot shows that locally reduced cloud opacity is responsible for dark features within the vortex. The HST data maps multiple concentric polar hoods of high-latitude hazes.

Michael H. Wong↗

Intelligent Elements for ISHM

There are a number of architecture models for implementing Integrated Systems Health Management (ISHM) capabilities. For example, approaches based on the OSA-CBM and OSA-EAI models, or specific architectures developed in response to local needs. NASA s John C. Stennis Space Center (SSC) has developed one such version of an extensible architecture in support of rocket engine testing that integrates a palette of functions in order to achieve an ISHM capability. Among the functional capabilities that are supported by the framework are: prognostic models, anomaly detection, a data base of supporting health information, root cause analysis, intelligent elements, and integrated awareness. This paper focuses on the role that intelligent elements can play in ISHM architectures. We define an intelligent element as a smart element with sufficient computing capacity to support anomaly detection or other algorithms in support of ISHM functions. A smart element has the capabilities of supporting networked implementations of IEEE 1451.x smart sensor and actuator protocols. The ISHM group at SSC has been actively developing intelligent elements in conjunction with several partners at other Centers, universities, and companies as part of our ISHM approach for better supporting rocket engine testing. We have developed several implementations. Among the key features for these intelligent sensors is support for IEEE 1451.1 and incorporation of a suite of algorithms for determination of sensor health. Regardless of the potential advantages that can be achieved using intelligent sensors, existing large-scale systems are still based on conventional sensors and data acquisition systems. In order to bring the benefits of intelligent sensors to these environments, we have also developed virtual implementations of intelligent sensors.

Schmalzel, John L.↗

Vegetation stress as a feedback mechanism in midlatitude drought

An atmospheric general circulation model with land surface properties represented by the Simplified Simple Biosphere Model is used to investigate the effect of soil moisture and vegetation stress on drought in the mid-latitudes. An idealized land-sea distribution with simple topography is used to remove as many external sources of climate variation as possible. The land consists of a single, flat, rectangular continent covered with prairie vegetation and centered on 44 deg N of an aqua planet. A control integration of 4 years is performed, and several sets of seasonal anomaly integrations are made to test the sensitivity of seasonal climate to low initial (1 April) soil moisture and dormant vegetation like what would occur during a severe drought. It is found that the inclusion of dormant vegetation during the spring and early summer greatly reduces evapotranspiration by eliminating transpiration. This affects local climate more strongly as summer progresses. Low initial soil moisture, combined with dormant vegetation, leads to a severe drought. The reduction in precipitation is much greater in magnitude than that due to low soil moisture alone, and greater than the sum of the effects computed separately. Although the short-term drought is more severe, the dormancy of the vegetation prevents further depletion of moisture in the root zone of the soil, so soil moisture begins to rebound toward the middle of summer.

Dirmeyer, Paul A.↗

A GCM study on the maintenance of the June 1982 blocking in the Southern Hemisphere

GCM experiments are used to study several possible mechanisms associated with the maintenance of the June 1982 blocking in the Southern Hemisphere. The mechanisms considered include changed orography, sea surface temperature anomalies, tropical heating, regional heating in the Pacific area, land-sea contrast, and sensible heating in the Antarctic area. It is concluded that asymmetric heating due to land-sea contrast was the most important boundary forcing associated with maintenance of the block. A 'no Australia' experiment confirms this result and suggests that local land-sea contrast kept the block stationary. High-latitude sensible heating associated with cold air outbreaks from Antarctica was also important in maintaining the block.

Mo, Kingtse C.↗

Application of precise altimetry to the study of precise leveling of the sea surface, the Earth's gravity field, and the rotation of the Earth

Our program includes five research items: (1) determination of a precision geoid and gravity anomaly field; (2) precise leveling and detection of tidal changes of the sea surface and study of the role of the tide in the global energy exchange; (3) oceanic effect on the Earth's rotation and polar motion; (4) geological and geophysical interpretation of the altimetry gravity field; and (5) evaluation of the effectiveness of local tracking of TOPEX/POSEIDON by use of a laser tracker.

Segawa, J.↗

Spaceborne radar observations: A guide for Magellan radar-image analysis

Geologic analyses of spaceborne radar images of Earth are reviewed and summarized with respect to detecting, mapping, and interpreting impact craters, volcanic landforms, eolian and subsurface features, and tectonic landforms. Interpretations are illustrated mostly with Seasat synthetic aperture radar and shuttle-imaging-radar images. Analogies are drawn for the potential interpretation of radar images of Venus, with emphasis on the effects of variation in Magellan look angle with Venusian latitude. In each landform category, differences in feature perception and interpretive capability are related to variations in imaging geometry, spatial resolution, and wavelength of the imaging radar systems. Impact craters and other radially symmetrical features may show apparent bilateral symmetry parallel to the illumination vector at low look angles. The styles of eruption and the emplacement of major and minor volcanic constructs can be interpreted from morphological features observed in images. Radar responses that are governed by small-scale surface roughness may serve to distinguish flow types, but do not provide unambiguous information. Imaging of sand dunes is rigorously constrained by specific angular relations between the illumination vector and the orientation and angle of repose of the dune faces, but is independent of radar wavelength. With a single look angle, conditions that enable shallow subsurface imaging to occur do not provide the information necessary to determine whether the radar has recorded surface or subsurface features. The topographic linearity of many tectonic landforms is enhanced on images at regional and local scales, but the detection of structural detail is a strong function of illumination direction. Nontopographic tectonic lineaments may appear in response to contrasts in small-surface roughness or dielectric constant. The breakpoint for rough surfaces will vary by about 25 percent through the Magellan viewing geometries from low to high Venusian latitudes. Examples of anomalies and system artifacts that can affect image interpretation are described.

Ford, J. P.↗

Unique Approaches to Analysis of Time-Variable Gravity from GRACE

We have developed an innovative analysis strategy for analysis of GRACE data. We have developed a capability to recover local/regional gravity changes using non-global functional representations (Le. surface anomalies vs. global spherical harmonics) h m the GRACE data. Our approach can take regularly or irregularly shaped regions, populate them with surface anomaly blocks of suitable area and solve for the resulting mass flux with respect to a mean field. The surface mass or gravity anomalies benefit from the application of spatial and temporal constraints to add stability to the solution. In this paper we discuss the analysis of four months of GRACE Level 1B data (accelerometry, intersatellite data, attitude information and precise orbits) from July to October 2003, recently released to the GRACE Science Team. We compare and contrast this local approach to gravity recovery, with the more conventional approach using global spherical harmonics. We review simulations of this technique which allow us to pinpoint optimum strategies for applications of this local gravity recovery approach.

Lemoine, Frank G.↗

Twenty Years of Radiation Measurements in Low-Earth Orbit - What Have We Learned Space Radiation Environment?

The advent of the Space Shuttle program has made possible space radiation environment measurements spanning a wide range of altitudes and orbital inclinations over multiple solar cycles. These measurements range from routine integral dose measurements with thermoluminescent dosimeters to particle energy spectra measurements made with a charged particle telescope. This paper will review the new understanding about the space radiation environment gained from this diverse data set. Major findings from these measurements include: estimations of the westward drift rate of the South Atlantic Anomaly (SAA) of 0.28-0.49/y; evidence for a northward component to the SAA drift of 0.08-0.12/y; observation of the formation and decay of the pseudo-stable additional radiation belt following the Mar 1991 SPE and geomagnetic storm with an estimated decay e-folding time of 9-10 months; observation of a local geomagnetic east-west trapped proton exposure anisotropy with an estimated magnitude of 1.6-3.3; demonstration that the trapped proton exposure in low-Earth orbit (LEO) can be reasonably modeled as a power law function of atmospheric density in the SAA region, with best correlations obtained when the exospheric temperature saturates at 938-975 K; the actual solar cycle modulation of trapped proton exposure in LEO is less than predicted by the AP8 model; and the testing and validation of GCR flux models, radiation transport codes, and dynamic geomagnetic cutoff models. Long-term, time-resolved proportional counter measurements made aboard the Mir during the same period provides further demonstration of the solar cycle modulation of the trapped protons at low altitudes - the observed modulation is also well described as power law function of atmospheric density. These data and findings have helped to improve the overall accuracy of pre-mission crew exposure projections using various semi-empirical space environment models, radiation transport codes, and spacecraft radiation shielding models. During the rise phase of solar cycle 22 (1987-1991), the RMS error between preflight exposure projections and measured crew exposure was 73%. For the rise phase of cycle 23 (1997-2001), the preflight exposure projection RMS error has decreased to 23%. The launch and assembly of the Space Station has begun a new era of long-term LEO space environment monitoring. The radiation environment at the Space Station will be monitored with three external charged particle telescopes oriented in the velocity vector, anti-velocity vector, and zenith directions. Data from the telescopes will provide charge, mass, energy, and arrival direction for incident particles with energy to mass ratios of 13- 450 MeV/amu and Z of 1-24. The external environment data will be complimented by measurements from a portable charged particle telescope and proportional counter located inside the vehicle.

Golightly, Michael J.↗

A non-catastrophist explanation for the iridium anomaly at the Cretaceous/Tertiary boundary

The iridium (Ir) anomaly at the Cretaceous/Tertiary (C/T) boundary can be explained by dissolution of normal pelagic limestones producing an insoluble clay residue containing Ir-rich meteoritic material. Further concentration of Ir and other trace metals in the clay can be explained by deposition under reducing conditions. Clay-mineral analyses indicate that the boundary clay is similar to locally derived clays in the limestones above and below the boundary, and contains no detectable exotic components. This supports a terrestrial origin for the boundary clay. The genesis of the boundary clay is attributed to changes in ocean chemistry (pH and oxygenation), leading to an interval of widespread dissolution of carbonate sequences in the oceans, and culminating in the development of submarine pyritic hardgrounds and a disconformity of global extent.

Rampino, M. R.↗

The Western North American Cretaceous-Tertiary (K-T) boundary interval and its content of shock-metamorphosed minerals: Implications concerning the K-T boundary impact-extinction theory

At 20 sites in the Raton Basin of Colorado and New Mexico, and at several other sites in Wyoming, Montana, and Canada, a pair of claystone units, an Ir abundance anomaly, and a concentration of shock-metamorphosed minerals mark the palynological K-T boundary. The K-T boundary claystone, which is composed of kaolinite and small amounts of illite/smectite mixed-layer clay, is similar in most respects to kaolinite tonstein layers in coal beds. At some, but not all, K-T boundary localities, the boundary claystone contains solid kaolinite and hollow and solid goyazite spherules, 0.05 to 1.2 mm in diameter. The upper unit, the K-T boundary impact layer, consists chiefly of kaolinite and various amounts of illite/smectite mixed-layer clay. The impact layer and boundary claystone are similar chemically, except that the former has slightly more Fe, K, Ba, Cr, Cu, Li, V, and Zn than the latter. The facts that the boundary claystone and impact layer contain anomalous amounts of Ir, comprise a stratigraphic couplet at Western North American sites, and form thin, discrete layers, similar to air-fall units (volcanic or impact), suggest that the claystone units are of impact origin. Significantly, the impact layer contains as much as 2 percent clastic mineral grains, about 30 percent of which contain multiple sets of shock lamellae. Only one such concentration of shocked minerals has been found near the K-T boundary. The type of K-T boundary shock-metamorphosed materials (quartzite and metaquartzite) in the impact layer and the lack of shock lamellae in quartz and feldspar of pumice lapilli and granitic xenoliths in air-fall pumice units of silicic tuffs, such as the Bishop Tuff, eliminate the possibility that the shock-metamorphosed minerals in the K-T impact layer are of volcanic origin. The global size distribution and abundance of shock-metamorphosed mineral grains suggest that the K-T impact occurred in North America.

Izett, G. A.↗

Strain accumulation and surface deformation along the San Andreas, California

The goal of this project remains to be the achievement of a better understanding of the regional and local deformation and crustal straining processes in western North America, particularly the effect of the San Andreas and nearby faults on the spatial and temporal crustal deformation behavior. Construction of theoretical models based on the mechanics of coupled elastic plate/viscoelastic foundation and large scale crack mechanics provide a rational basis for the interpretation of seismic and aseismic anomalies and expedite efforts in forecasting the stability of plate boundary deformations. In the present period, special focus is placed on the 3-D effect of irregular fault locked patches on the ground measured deformation fields. Specifically, use is made of a newly developed 3-D boundary element program to analyze the fault slip and vertical ground motion in the Parkfield area on the San Andreas.

Li, Victor C.↗

Towards a Theory of Tropical/Midlatitude Mass Exchange from the Earth's Surface through the Stratosphere

The main findings of this research project have been the following: (1) there is a significant feedback from the stratosphere on tropospheric dynamics, and (2) a detailed analysis of the interaction between tropical and polar wave breaking in controlling stratospheric mixing. Two papers are were written and are included. The first paper is titled, "A New Perspective on the Dynamical Link Between the Stratosphere and Troposphere." Atmospheric processes of tropospheric origin can perturb the stratosphere, but direct feedback in the opposite direction is usually assumed to be negligible, despite the troposphere's sensitivity to changes in the release of wave activity into the stratosphere. Here, however, we present evidence that such a feedback exists and can be significant. We find that if the wintertime Arctic polar stratospheric vortex is distorted, either by waves propagating upward from the troposphere or by eastward-travelling stratospheric waves, then there is a concomitant redistribution of stratospheric potential vorticity that induces perturbations in key meteorological fields in the upper troposphere. The feedback is large despite the much greater mass of the troposphere: it can account for up to half of the geopotential height anomaly at the tropopause. Although the relative strength of the feedback is partly due to a cancellation between contributions to these anomalies from lower altitudes, our results imply that stratospheric dynamics and its feedback on the troposphere are more significant for climate modelling and data assimilation than was previously assumed. The second article is titled "Diagnosing the Polar Excitation of Subtropical Waves in the Stratosphere". The poleward migration of planetary scale tongues of subtropical air has often been associated with intense polar vortex disturbances in the stratosphere. This question of vortex influence is reexamined from a potential vorticity (PV) perspective. Anomalous geopotential height and wind fields associated solely with vortex PV anomalies are derived and their impact on the stratospheric subtropical circulation is evaluated. Combined PV inversion and Contour Advection (CA) calculations indicate that transient large scale disturbances of the polar vortex do have a far reaching impact that extends beyond the midlatitude surf zone all the way to the subtropics. This vortex influence is clearly non-local so that even simple wave 2 distortions that leave the vortex well confined within the midlatitudes are observed to excite subtropical waves. Treating subtropical PV as active tracers also showed that upon entrainment, these large scale tongues of low PV air also influenced the dynamics of their own poleward migration.

Hartley, Dana↗

Secondary particle contribution to LET spectra on LDEF

Four experiments utilizing passive detectors (P0006, P0004, A0015, M0004) were flown on LDEF to study the radiation environment. These experiments have been summarized in a companion paper (Benton et al., 1996). One of the experimental goals was to measure LET spectra at different locations and shielding depths with plastic nuclear track detectors (PNTD). It was found that the LET spectra extended well above the LET cutoff imposed by the geomagnetic field on GCR particle penetration into LEO. The high LET particles detected were mostly short-range (range < 2000 m), indicating that they were secondaries produced locally within the PNTD. The presence of these high LET particle fluences is important for the determination of dose equivalent because of the high Quality Factors (Q) involved. A relatively small fraction of particle fluence can contribute a large fraction of dose equivalent. Short-range, inelastic secondary particles produced by trapped protons in the South Atlantic Anomaly (SAA) were found to be a major contributor to the LET spectra above 100 keV/micrometer. The LET spectra were found to extend beyond the approximately 137 keV/micrometer relativistic GCR Fe peak to over 1000 keV/micrometer. The high LET tail of the LET spectra was measured in CR-39 and polycarbonate PNTDs using different techniques. GCR made a relatively modest contribution to the LET spectra as compared to the contributions from short-range secondary particles and stopping protons. LET spectra intercomparisons were made between LDEF measurements and exposures to 154 MeV accelerated proton beams. The similarities support the role of nuclear interactions by trapped protons as the major source of secondary particles in the PNTDs. Also techniques were employed to reduce the range cutoff for detection of the short-range secondaries to approximately 1 micrometer, so that essentially all secondary particles were included in the LET spectra. This has allowed a more realistic assessment of secondary contribution to dose equivalent. Comparisons of measured and calculated LET spectra have been made that demonstrate the need for more accurate modeling of secondary particles in radiation transport codes. Comparisons include preliminary calculations in which attempts have been made to include secondary particles.

long duration↗

Identification of Geostructures of continental crust, particularly as they relate to mineral-resource evaluation

The author has identified the following significant results. Analysis of lineated lakes in the Umiat, Alaska area and comparison with known geology, gravity, and magnetic data in the the area suggest concealed structures exist at depth, possibly at or near basement, which may represent targets for petroleum exploration. Compilation of reconnaissance geologic data on 1:250,000 scale enlargements of ERTS-1 images near Corwin reveal structural and stratigraphic anomalies that suggest the Cretaceous sequence is less thick than supposed and is repeated in a series of plates superimposed by flat thrust faults. The structural style differs from that in coeval strata to the northeast, across the northwest-trending linear zone separating differing tectonic styles in older strata noted earlier. The regional extension of a fault known locally in the McCarthy area has been recognized; this fault appears to form the boundary of a significant terrane of mid-Paleozoic metamorphic rocks. ERTS-1 images are being used operationally, at 1:1,000,000 scale in the compilation of regional geologic maps, and at 1:250,000 scale in field mapping in the Brooks Range, in the study of faults in seismically active southern Alaska, in field-checking interpretations previously made from ERTS-1 imagery, and orthophoto base maps for geologic maps.

Gryc, G.↗

Development of environmental charging effect monitors for operational satellites

An instrumentation package to monitor the effects of the environmental charging of spacecraft surfaces on the systems of operational spacecraft was developed. This package performs two functions: first, the local charged particle flux and the particle characteristic energy is monitored; and second, transients in the spacecraft electrical harness is counted as a function of amplitude, with time. It is used to determine the duration and effect of any environmental charging of the spacecraft surfaces. Thus, it will be possible to determine the relationship between the occurrence of any anomalies and the charging phenomenon. Design details and design goals of this package are presented.

Stevens, N. J.↗

An analysis of the relationship between cloud anomalies and sea surface temperature anomalies in a global circulation model

The relationship between the sea surface temperature anomalies (SSTAs) and the anomalies of the monthly mean cloud cover (including the high-level, low-level, and total cloud cover), the outgoing longwave radiation, and the reflected solar radiation was analyzed using a least absolute deviations regression at each grid point over the open ocean for a 6-yr period. The results indicate that cloud change in association with a local 1-C increase in SSTAs cannot be used to predict clouds in a potential future world where all the oceans are 1-C warmer than at present, because much of the observed cloud changes are due to circulation changes, which in turn are related not only to changes in SSTAs but to changes in SSTA gradients. However, because SSTAs are associated with changes in the local ocean-atmosphere moisture and heat fluxes as well as significant changes in circulation (such as ENSO), SSTAs can serve as a surrogate for many aspects of global climate change.

Peterson, Thomas C.↗