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At least 325 records · Page 18

A first-order global model of Late Cenozoic climatic change: Orbital forcing as a pacemaker of the ice ages

The development of a theory of the evolution of the climate of the earth over millions of years can be subdivided into three fundamental, nested, problems: (1) to establish by equilibrium climate models (e.g., general circulation models) the diagnostic relations, valid at any time, between the fast-response climate variables (i.e., the 'weather statistics') and both the prescribed external radiative forcing and the prescribed distribution of the slow response variables (e.g., the ice sheets and shelves, the deep ocean state, and the atmospheric CO2 concentration); (2) to construct, by an essentially inductive process, a model of the time-dependent evolution of the slow-response climatic variables over time scales longer than the damping times of these variables but shorter than the time scale of tectonic changes in the boundary conditions (e.g., altered geography and elevation of the continents, slow outgassing, and weathering) and ultra-slow astronomical changes such as in the solar radiative output; and (3) to determine the nature of these ultra-slow processes and their effects on the evolution of the equilibrium state of the climatic system about which the above time-dependent variations occur. All three problems are discussed in the context of the theory of the Quaternary climate, which will be incomplete unless it is embedded in a more general theory for the fuller Cenozoic that can accommodate the onset of the ice-age fluctuations. We construct a simple mathematical model for the Late Cenozoic climatic changes based on the hypothesis that forced and free variations of the concentration of atmospheric greenhouse gases (notably CO2), coupled with changes in the deep ocean state and ice mass, under the additional 'pacemaking' influence of earth-orbital forcing, are primary determinants of the climate state over this period. Our goal is to illustrate how a single model governing both very long term variations and higher frequency oscillatory variations in the Pleistocene can be formulated with relatively few adjustable parameters.

Saltzman, Barry↗

Experimental Design and Preliminary Analysis of a Mars CO2 Rapid Cycle Adsorption Pump

Temperature-swing adsorption pumps have been proposed as a method of acquiring and compressing Martian atmospheric CO2 for downstream processing. Most industrial applications and previous research targeted at space in-situ resource utilization (ISRU) utilize long (~hours) temperature swing periods, typically limited by the ability to transfer heat from a naturally insulating sorbent bed. A rapid cycle adsorption pump (RCAP) would reduce these periods to minutes, in the hope of increasing overall throughput. This paper details the design and preliminary experimental results from testing an RCAP in a simulated Martian environment. The test configuration features a central, liquid-cooled and heated heat transfer plate surrounded by symmetrical rectangular sorbent beds. Various bed thicknesses and commercially available Zeolite 13X sorbent particle sizes are evaluated to both determine performance and provide data for a parallel modeling effort. Discussions of multi-stage configurations and methods of boosting bed conductivity are included.

Rapid Cycle Adsorption↗

Evaluating the Capacity of Global CO2 Flux and Atmospheric Transport Models to Incorporate New Satellite Observations

As we enter the new era of satellite remote sensing for CO2 and other carbon cyclerelated quantities, advanced modeling and analysis capabilities are required to fully capitalize on the new observations. Model estimates of CO2 surface flux and atmospheric transport are required for initial constraints on inverse analyses, to connect atmospheric observations to the location of surface sources and sinks, and ultimately for future projections of carbon-climate interactions. For application to current, planned, and future remotely sensed CO2 data, it is desirable that these models are accurate and unbiased at time scales from less than daily to multi-annual and at spatial scales from several kilometers or finer to global. Here we focus on simulated CO2 fluxes from terrestrial vegetation and atmospheric transport mutually constrained by analyzed meteorological fields from the Goddard Modeling and Assimilation Office for the period 1998 through 2006. Use of assimilated meteorological data enables direct model comparison to observations across a wide range of scales of variability. The biospheric fluxes are produced by the CASA model at lxi degrees on a monthly mean basis, modulated hourly with analyzed temperature and sunlight. Both physiological and biomass burning fluxes are derived using satellite observations of vegetation, burned area (as in GFED-2), and analyzed meteorology. For the purposes of comparison to CO2 data, fossil fuel and ocean fluxes are also included in the transport simulations. In this presentation we evaluate the model's ability to simulate CO2 flux and mixing ratio variability in comparison to in situ observations at sites in Northern mid latitudes and the continental tropics. The influence of key process representations is inferred. We find that the model can resolve much of the hourly to synoptic variability in the observations, although there are limits imposed by vertical resolution of boundary layer processes. The seasonal cycle and its interannual variations generally respond adequately, but discrepancies in the tropics suggest the need for a refinement of the soil moisture dependence of the respiration flux in CASA. Examples and inferences for interpretation of satellite data will be discussed. In general, the fidelity of these simulations leads us to anticipate incorporation of real-time, highly resolved remote sensing and other observations into quantitative analyses that will reduce uncertainty in the terrestrial CO2 sink and revolutionize our understanding of the key processes controlling atmospheric CO2 and its evolution with time.

Kawa, S. R.↗

Exploring Coupled Land-Atmosphere Carbon Dynamics and Seasonal Carbon Forecast Skill

Terrestrial biosphere is an integral part of the climate system and plays a vital role in controlling the dynamics of the Earth’s carbon cycle. In this talk, I will present recent efforts to explore coupled land-atmosphere carbon dynamics and seasonal carbon cycle predictability. First, by imposing an idealized spring drought in coupled land‐atmosphere ensemble simulations, we investigated the impact of a regional drought on land and atmospheric carbon. Through the drought-induced impact on remote meteorology, the capability of the land’s carbon uptake is altered in both the drought area and the adjacent areas. The induced anomalies of the atmospheric CO2 extend to an area up to three times of that of the imposed drought, which suggests that atmospheric transport needs to be considered in the interpretation of the drought impact on carbon anomalies. Increase in column‐averaged monthly CO2 is at the edge of the uncertainty from single soundings of current greenhouse gas observing satellites. Secondly, the seasonal carbon forecast skill was explored using NASA’s subseasonal-to-seasonal (S2S) ensemble forecast and terrestrial biosphere model. The result demonstrates an ability to accurately predict spring-summer carbon uptake in the Northern Hemisphere mid and high latitude land at multi-month leads. The prediction skill appears to be achieved by accurate forecasts of snow removal timing, which provides a latent predictability to the forecast system, and by proper initialization of carbon and nitrogen states. Additionally, I will briefly discuss other ongoing research to improve hydrometeorological prediction by integrating biogeochemical processes, to evaluate forecast skill of wildfire carbon, and to apply subseasonal forecasts to water resources management.

Eunjee Lee↗

Mariner 9 television limb observations of dust and ice hazes on Mars

Results are presented for a statistical analysis of over 3000 Mariner 9 television reflectance profiles of the planetary limb of Mars for the period from the decaying phase of a global dust storm (southern summer) to southern winter solstice. It is shown that during the decaying phase of the storm, the dust is maintained aloft to high elevations by vertical mixing primarily in the equatorial zone, apparently by the direct or indirect action of the diurnal tide; the result is that the dust decay is much faster in high-latitude regions than near the equator. Significant dust remains aloft in Martian equatorial regions long after the major dust storms have subsided. At the top of the dusty atmosphere, a region exists where temperatures relax toward values expected for a dust-free CO2 atmosphere; this is therefore a region of convective overturning topped by thin condensation hazes resembling terrestrial noctilucent clouds, thereby showing occasionally gravity wave structures.

Anderson, E.↗

Mars boundary layer simulations - Comparison with Viking lander and entry observations

Diurnal variations of wind and temperature in the lower Martian atmosphere are simulated with a boundary layer model that includes radiative heating in a dusty CO2 atmosphere, turbulence generated by convection and/or shear stresses, a surface heat budget, and time varying pressure forces due to sloping terrain. Model results for early northern summer are compared with Viking lander observations to determine the model's strengths and weaknesses, and suitability as an engineering model.

Haberle, R. M.↗

Investigation of Coupled Land-Atmosphere Carbon Dynamics and Seasonal Carbon Forecast Skill

In this talk, I will present recent efforts to explore coupled land-atmosphere carbon dynamics and carbon cycle predictability. First, the impact of a regional drought on land and atmospheric carbon was studied by imposing an idealized spring drought in coupled land‐atmosphere ensemble simulations. Through drought-induced impact on remote meteorology, the drought alters land’s productivity not only in the drought area but also in the adjacent areas. The atmospheric CO2 anomalies extend to an area up to three times of that of the imposed drought, which suggests that atmospheric transport needs to be considered in the interpretation of drought‐induced carbon anomalies. Increase in column‐averaged monthly CO2 by the imposed drought is at the edge of the uncertainty from single soundings of current greenhouse gas observing satellites. Secondly, the seasonal carbon forecast skill was explored using NASA’s subseasonal-to-seasonal (S2S) ensemble forecast and a terrestrial biosphere model. The result demonstrates an ability to accurately predict spring-summer carbon uptake at multi-month leads in the Northern Hemisphere mid- and high latitude land. The skill appears to be achieved by accurate forecasts of snow removal timing as well as proper initialization of carbon and nitrogen states. Additionally, I will briefly discuss other ongoing research activities to improve hydrometeorological prediction by integrating biogeochemical processes, to evaluate forecast skill of wildfire, and to apply subseasonal forecasts to water resources management.

Eunjee Lee↗

Laboratory Measurement of the Temperature Dependence of Gaseous Sulfur Dioxide (SO2) Microwave Absorption with Application to the Venus Atmosphere

High-accuracy laboratory measurements of the temperature dependence of the opacity from gaseous sulfur dioxide (SO2) in a carbon dioxide (CO2) atmosphere at temperatures from 290 to 505 K and at pressures from 1 to 4 atm have been conducted at frequencies of 2.25 GHz (13.3 cm), 8.5 GHz (3.5 cm), and 21.7 GHz (1.4 cm). Based on these absorptivity measurements, a Ben-Reuven (BR) line shape model has been developed that provides a more accurate characterization of the microwave absorption of gaseous S02 in the Venus atmosphere as compared with other formalisms. The developed BR formalism is incorporated into a radiative transfer model. The resulting microwave emission spectrum of Venus is then used to set an upper limit on the disk-averaged abundance of gaseous S02 below the main cloud layer. It is found that gaseous S02 has an upper limit of 150 ppm, which compares well with previous spacecraft in situ measurements and Earth-based radio astronomical observations.

Suleiman, Shady H.↗

Self-Calibration and Laser Energy Monitor Validations for a Double-Pulsed 2-Micron CO2 Integrated Path Differential Absorption Lidar Application

Double-pulsed 2-micron integrated path differential absorption (IPDA) lidar is well suited for atmospheric CO2 remote sensing. The IPDA lidar technique relies on wavelength differentiation between strong and weak absorbing features of the gas normalized to the transmitted energy. In the double-pulse case, each shot of the transmitter produces two successive laser pulses separated by a short interval. Calibration of the transmitted pulse energies is required for accurate CO2 measurement. Design and calibration of a 2-micron double-pulse laser energy monitor is presented. The design is based on an InGaAs pin quantum detector. A high-speed photo-electromagnetic quantum detector was used for laser-pulse profile verification. Both quantum detectors were calibrated using a reference pyroelectric thermal detector. Calibration included comparing the three detection technologies in the single-pulsed mode, then comparing the quantum detectors in the double-pulsed mode. In addition, a self-calibration feature of the 2-micron IPDA lidar is presented. This feature allows one to monitor the transmitted laser energy, through residual scattering, with a single detection channel. This reduces the CO2 measurement uncertainty. IPDA lidar ground validation for CO2 measurement is presented for both calibrated energy monitor and self-calibration options. The calibrated energy monitor resulted in a lower CO2 measurement bias, while self-calibration resulted in a better CO2 temporal profiling when compared to the in situ sensor.

Refaat, Tamer F.↗

Liquid Water on Early Mars

We have used a simple climate model to determine the duration of liquid water habitats on early Mars following up on the previous work of McKay and Davis. We used the weathering model of Pollack et al. to compute the pressure and temperature evolution of the atmosphere. We included the variability of the solar luminosity. Recent results which have considered the influence of CO2 condensation suggest that Mars could not have been kept warm (above 0 C) with only a dense CO2 atmosphere. New stellar evolution theories have suggested a more massive early sun to explain the lithium depletion in the sun and predict a warmer climate for early Mars. We have therefore modified the model of McKay and Davis to include the effects of CO2 condensation and the effect of a more massive early sun. Here we present the results of these additional effects on the duration of liquid water habitats on early Mars. We find that the increased luminosity suggested for the early sun when mass loss is taken into account can provide a climate on early Mars that results in fluvial features existing over 500 million years.

Davis, Wanda L.↗

Modelling climate change impacts on maize yields under low nitrogen input conditions in sub‐Saharan Africa

Smallholder farmers in sub‐Saharan Africa (SSA) currently grow rainfed maize with limited inputs including fertilizer. Climate change may exacerbate current production constraints. Crop models can help quantify the potential impact of climate change on maize yields, but a comprehensive multimodel assessment of simulation accuracy and uncertainty in these low‐input systems is currently lacking. We evaluated the impact of varying [CO2], temperature and rainfall conditions on maize yield, for different nitrogen (N) inputs (0, 80, 160 kg N/ha) for five environments in SSA, including cool subhumid Ethiopia, cool semi‐arid Rwanda, hot subhumid Ghana and hot semi‐arid Mali and Benin using an ensemble of 25 maize models. Models were calibrated with measured grain yield, plant biomass, plant N, leaf area index, harvest index and in‐season soil water content from 2‐year experiments in each country to assess their ability to simulate observed yield. Simulated responses to climate change factors were explored and compared between models. Calibrated models reproduced measured grain yield variations well with average relative root mean square error of 26%, although uncertainty in model prediction was substantial (CV = 28%). Model ensembles gave greater accuracy than any model taken at random. Nitrogen fertilization controlled the response to variations in [CO2], temperature and rainfall. Without N fertilizer input, maize (i) benefited less from an increase in atmospheric [CO2], (ii) was less affected by higher temperature or decreasing rainfall and (iii) was more affected by increased rainfall because N leaching was more critical. The model inter-comparison revealed that simulation of daily soil N supply and N leaching plays a crucial role in simulating climate change impacts for low-input systems. Climate change and N input interactions have strong implications for the design of robust adaptation practices across SSA, because the impact of climate change will be modified if farmers intensify maize production with more mineral fertilizer.

Crop simulation model↗

Monitoring Top-of-Atmosphere Radiative Energy Imbalance for Climate Prediction

Large climate feedback uncertainties limit the prediction accuracy of the Earth s future climate with an increased CO2 atmosphere. One potential to reduce the feedback uncertainties using satellite observations of top-of-atmosphere (TOA) radiative energy imbalance is explored. Instead of solving the initial condition problem in previous energy balance analysis, current study focuses on the boundary condition problem with further considerations on climate system memory and deep ocean heat transport, which is more applicable for the climate. Along with surface temperature measurements of the present climate, the climate feedbacks are obtained based on the constraints of the TOA radiation imbalance. Comparing to the feedback factor of 3.3 W/sq m/K of the neutral climate system, the estimated feedback factor for the current climate system ranges from -1.3 to -1.0 W/sq m/K with an uncertainty of +/-0.26 W/sq m/K. That is, a positive climate feedback is found because of the measured TOA net radiative heating (0.85 W/sq m) to the climate system. The uncertainty is caused by the uncertainties in the climate memory length. The estimated time constant of the climate is large (70 to approx. 120 years), implying that the climate is not in an equilibrium state under the increasing CO2 forcing in the last century.

Lin, Bing↗

Effects of spatial variability in vegetation phenology, climate, landcover, biodiversity, topography, and soil property on soil respiration across a coastal ecosystem

Coastal terrestrial-aquatic interfaces (TAIs) are crucial contributors to global biogeochemical cycles and carbon exchange. A systematic evaluation of the interaction between coastal catchment properties and carbon dioxide (CO2) emission by soil respiration is significant for assessing carbon dynamics and predicting the future trajectory of atmospheric CO2 concentrations in coastal TAIs. The soil CO2 efflux in these transition zones is however poorly understood due to the high spatiotemporal dynamics of TAIs, as various sub-ecosystems in this region are compressed and expanded by complex influences of tides, changes in river levels, climate, and land use. We focus on the Chesapeake Bay region to (i) investigate the spatial heterogeneity of the coastal ecosystem and identify spatial zones with similar environmental characteristics based on the spatial data layers, including vegetation index (kNDVI), climate, landcover, diversity, topography, soil property, and relative tidal elevation; (ii) understand the primary driving factors affecting soil respiration within sub-ecosystems of the coastal ecosystem. Specifically, we employed hierarchical clustering analysis to identify spatial regions with distinct environmental characteristics, followed by the determination of main driving factors using Random Forest regression and SHapley Additive exPlanations. Maximum and minimum temperature are the main drivers common to all sub-ecosystems, while each region also has additional unique major drivers that differentiate them from one another. Precipitation exerts an influence on vegetated lands, while soil pH value holds importance specifically in forested lands. In croplands characterized by high clay content and low sand content, the significant role is attributed to bulk density. Wetlands demonstrate the importance of both elevation and sand content, with clay content being more relevant in non-inundated wetlands than in inundated wetlands. The topographic wetness index significantly contributes to the mixed vegetation areas, including shrub, grass, pasture, and forest. Additionally, our research reveals that dense vegetation land covers and urban/developed areas exhibit distinct soil property drivers. Overall, there is no one-size-fits-all approach to modeling carbon fluxes in coastal TAIs, and our study highlights the importance of further research and monitoring practices to improve our understanding of carbon dynamics and promote the sustainable management of coastal TAIs.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

The Superheat Phenomenon in the Combustion of Magnesium Particles

Magnesium is known to be a likely fuel for engines that could work in the CO2 atmospheres of Mars and Venus. The present paper reports temperature measurements of magnesium samples during combustion in CO2. The burning sample temperature increases with the decrease in the initial size. The temperature of the 1-mm samples is 300-400 K higher than the boiling point of magnesium. The stability of the superheated drop is explained by the presence of a porous shell on the surface. An attempt has been made to describe vaporization on the superheated drop by the Knudsen-Langmuir equation. During combustion at high-pressure fragment ejection of the flame is observed in high-speed motion pictures. This phenomenon is shown to be connected with the drop superheat. The repeated fracture of the outer shell formed in the flame ensures the complete burnout of metal particles at high pressure.

Shafirovich, E. IA.↗

Escape of Mars atmospheric carbon through time by photochemical means

Luhmann et al. recently suggested that sputtering of the Martian atmosphere by re-entering O(+) pickup ions could have provided a significant route of escape for CO2 and its products throughout Mars' history. They estimated that the equivalent of C in an approximately 140-mbar CO2 atmosphere should have been lost this way if the Sun and solar wind evolved according to available models. Another source of escaping C (and O) that is potentially important is the dissociative recombination of ionospheric CO(+) near the exobase. We have evaluated the loss rates due to this process for 'ancient' solar EUV radiation fluxes of 1, 3, and 6 times the present flux in order to calculate the possible cumulative loss over the last 3.5 Gyr.

Luhmann, J. G.↗

Climate Change and the Brewer-Dobson Circulation

Using GCM (General Circulation Model) simulations of the troposphere-stratosphere circulation in different climate regimes, the sensitivity of the Brewer-Dobson Circulation to climate change will be discussed. Included will be simulations of the stratosphere with increasing/doubled CO2 as done with different versions of the GISS (Goddard Institute for Space Studies) Global Climate Middle Atmosphere Model, with and without ozone response. To put the results in a broader perspective, stratospheric circulation changes from several paleoclimate simulations will also be presented, including the Last Glacial Maximum and the Paleocene, each with several different (plausible) latitudinal sea surface temperature gradients. Hence the climate changes investigated will include strong variations in baroclinic and topographic tropospheric planetary wave and gravity wave forcing, as well as global mean temperature and atmospheric CO2 levels. Results will be analyzed in terms of wave driving via E-P flux convergences and gravity wave effects, and will be shown to be strongly dependent on wave propagation characteristics.

Rind, David↗

Nitrogen nutrition and temporal effects of enhanced carbon dioxide on soybean growth

Plants grown on porous media at elevated CO2 levels generally have low concentrations of tissue N and often appear to require increased levels of external N to maximize growth response. This study determines if soybean [Glycine max (L.) Merr. Ransom'] grown hydroponically at elevated CO2 requires increases in external NO3- concentrations beyond levels that are optimal at ambient CO2 to maintain tissue N concentrations and maximize the growth response. This study also investigates temporal influences of elevated CO2 on growth responses by soybean. Plants were grown vegetatively for 34 d in hydroponic culture at atmospheric CO2 concentrations of 400, 650, and 900 microliters L-1 and during the final 18 d at NO3- concentrations of 0.5, 1.0, 5.0 and 10.0 mM in the culture solution. At 650 and 900 microliters L-1 CO2, plants had maximum increases of 31 and 45% in dry weight during the experimental period. Plant growth at 900 microliters L-1 CO2 was stimulated earlier than at 650 microliters L-1. During the final 18 d of the experiment, the relative growth rates (RGR) of plants grown at elevated CO2 declined. Elevated CO2 caused increases in total N and total NO3(-)-N content and leaf area but not leaf number. Enhancing CO2 levels also caused a decrease in root:shoot ratios. Stomatal resistance increased by 2.1- and 2.8-fold for plants at the 650 and 900 microliters L-1 CO2, respectively. Nitrate level in the culture solutions had no effect on growth or on C:N ratios of tissues, nor did increases in CO2 levels cause a decrease in N concentration of plant tissues. Hence, increases in NO3- concentration of the hydroponic solution were not necessary to maintain the N status of the plants or to maximize the growth response to elevated CO2.

NASA Program CELSS↗

Moessbauer Spectroscopy of Martian and Sverrefjell Carbonates

Mars, in its putative "warmer, wetter: early history, could have had a CO2 atmosphere much denser than its current value of <10 mbar. The question of where all this early CO2 has gone has long been debated. Now, several instruments on Mars Exploration Rover (MER) Spirit, including its Moessbauer spectrometer MIMOS II, have identified Mg-Fe carbonate in rock outcrops at Comanche Spur in the Columbia Hills of Gusev Crater. With this finding, carbonate cements in volcanic breccia collected on Sverrefjell Volcano on Spitzbergen Island in the Svalbard Archipelago (Norway) during the AMASE project are mineralogical and possible process analogues of the newly discovered martian carbonate. We report further analyses of Mossbauer spectra from Comanche Spur and discuss their relationship to Mossbauer data acquired on Sverrefjell carbonates. The spectra were velocity calibrated with MERView and fit using MERFit. Instead of the "average temperature" Comanche spectrum (data from all temperature windows summed), we refit the Comanche data for QS within each temperature window, modeling as doublets for Fe2+(carbonate), Fe2+(olivine), and Fe3+(npOx). The temperature dependences of QS for the Comanche carbonate and for a low-Ca carbonate from Chocolate Pots in Yellowstone National Park (YNP) are shown; they are the same within error. For Comanche carbonate summed over 210-270 K, (CS, QS) = (1.23, 1.95) mm/s. The value of QS for Sverrefjell carbonate at 295 K, (CS, QS) = (1.25, 1.87) mm/s, is also plotted, and the plot shows that the QS for the Sverrefjell carbonate agrees within error with the Comanche data extrapolated to 295 K. This agreement is additional evidence that the Sverrefjell carbonates are Mossbauer analogues for the Comanche carbonates, and that both carbonates might have precipitated from solutions that became carbonate rich by passing through buried carbonate deposits.

Agresti, David G.↗