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Search indexed NASA NTRS and DOE OSTI research on propulsion, heat transfer, battery materials and energy systems. Follow report and document links to the original sources.

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At least 325 records · Page 18
All sourcesNASA NTRSDOE OSTI
DOE OSTI2021

Determining the jet transport coefficient $\hat{q}$ from inclusive hadron suppression measurements using Bayesian parameter estimation

We report a new determination of $\hat{q}$, the jet transport coefficient of the quark-gluon plasma. We use the JETSCAPE framework, which incorporates a novel multistage theoretical approach to in-medium jet evolution and Bayesian inference for parameter extraction. The calculations, based on the Matter and Lbt jet quenching models, are compared to experimental measurements of inclusive hadron suppression in Au + Au collisions at the BNL Relativistic Heavy Ion Collider (RHIC) and Pb + Pb collisions at the CERN Large Hadron Collider (LHC). The correlation of experimental systematic uncertainties is accounted for in the parameter extraction. The functional dependence of $\hat{q}$ on jet energy or virtuality and medium temperature is based on a perturbative picture of in-medium scattering, with components reflecting the different regimes of applicability of Matter and Lbt. In the multistage approach, the switch between Matter and Lbt is governed by a virtuality scale Q 0 . Comparison of the posterior model predictions to the RHIC and LHC hadron suppression data shows reasonable agreement, with moderate tension in limited regions of phase space. The distribution of $\hat{q}/T^3$ extracted from the posterior distributions exhibits weak dependence on jet momentum and medium temperature T, with 90% credible region (CR) depending on the specific choice of model configuration. The choice of Matter + Lbt, with switching at virtuality Q 0 , has 90% CR of $2<\hat{q}/T^3<4$ for p T jet > 40 GeV=c. The value of Q 0 , determined here for the first time, is in the range 2.0-2.7 GeV.

73 NUCLEAR PHYSICS AND RADIATION PHYSICS↗
DOE OSTI2020

CALPHAD Uncertainty Quantification and TDBX

CALPHAD uncertainty quantification (UQ) is the foundation of materials design with quantified confidence. We report a framework and software packages to enable CALPHAD UQ assessment and calculation using commercial CALPHAD software (Thermo-Calc). This Bayesian inference framework is coupled with a Markov chain Monte Carlo algorithm to establish uncertainty traces with a given thermodynamic database file (TDB) and corresponding experimental data points. This general framework is demonstrated with the Ni–Cr binary system. The algorithm is firstly validated on synthetic data with known ground truth. Then it is applied to real experimental data to generate posterior traces. We develop a file format named TDBX, which provides a single source of truth by combining the original TDB content and the traces for each assessed Gibbs energy parameter. CALPHAD UQ calculations are performed based on the TDBX file, from which uncertainties for phase boundaries, enthalpy curves, and solidification range are collected as examples of basic design parameters. This TDBX file with corresponding scripts are made open-source. Finally, the combination of CALPHAD UQ assessments and calculations connected by TDBX supports uncertainty-assisted modeling, enabling the integrated application of modern design with uncertainty methodologies to computational materials design.

36 MATERIALS SCIENCE↗
DOE OSTI2020

Anelasticity and Phase Transition During Ramp-Release in Tin

This study examines the qualitative features of an anelasticity model associated with the bowing of dislocations in the presence of phase transition. A simple physically plausible mechanism is introduced to describe the interaction of anelasticity and the transformation. Varying the anelastic parameters results in strong differences in the deviatoric stress response. The model is applied to study the behavior of tin (Sn) and compared to data from ramp driven compression-release experiments. Tin exhibits a complex phase diagram within a relatively accessible range of temperature and pressures and the characterization of its phases is considered an open problem with significant scientific merit. The coupling between anelasticity, plasticity, and phase transformation contributes to release wave features traditionally associated with the phase transition effect alone suggesting the importance of accounting for the effects jointly. Posterior distributions of the plastic and anelastic parameters are computed using Bayesian-inference-based methods, further highlighting the importance of anelasticity in this regime.

36 MATERIALS SCIENCE↗
DOE OSTI2026

E-PINNs: Epistemic Physics-Informed Neural Networks

Physics-informed neural networks (PINNs) have demonstrated promise as a framework for solving forward and inverse problems involving partial differential equations. Despite recent progress in the field, it remains challenging to quantify uncertainty in these networks. While techniques such as Bayesian PINNs (B-PINNs) provide a principled approach to capturing epistemic uncertainty through Bayesian inference, they can be computationally expensive for large-scale applications. In this work, we propose Epistemic Physics-Informed Neural Networks (E-PINNs), a framework that uses a small network, the epinet, to efficiently quantify epistemic uncertainty in PINNs. The proposed approach works as an add-on to existing, pre-trained PINNs with a small computational overhead. We demonstrate the applicability of the proposed framework in various test cases and compare the results with B-PINNs using Hamiltonian Monte Carlo (HMC) posterior estimation and dropout-equipped PINNs (Dropout-PINNs). In our experiments, E-PINNs achieve calibrated coverage with competitive sharpness at substantially lower cost. We demonstrate that when B-PINNs produce narrower bands, they under-cover in our tests. E-PINNs also show better calibration than Dropout-PINNs in these examples, indicating a favorable accuracy-efficiency trade-off.

AI for Science↗
DOE OSTI2021

MADLens, a python package for fast and differentiable non-Gaussian lensing simulations

Here, we present MADLens a python package for producing non-Gaussian lensing convergence maps at arbitrary source redshifts with unprecedented precision. MADLens is designed to achieve high accuracy while keeping computational costs as low as possible. A MADLens simulation with only particles produces convergence maps whose power agrees with theoretical lensing power spectra up to within the accuracy limits of HaloFit. This is made possible by a combination of a highly parallelizable particle-mesh algorithm, a sub-evolution scheme in the lensing projection, and a machine-learning inspired sharpening step. Further, MADLens is fully differentiable with respect to the initial conditions of the underlying particle-mesh simulations and a number of cosmological parameters. These properties allow MADLens to be used as a forward model in Bayesian inference algorithms that require optimization or derivative-aided sampling. Another use case for MADLens is the production of large, high resolution simulation sets as they are required for training novel deep-learning-based lensing analysis tools. We make the MADLens package publicly available under a Creative Commons License

79 ASTRONOMY AND ASTROPHYSICS↗
DOE OSTI2021

Adaptive behavior and different thermal experiences of real people: A Bayesian neural network approach to thermal preference prediction and classification

Various observed and unquantifiable factors affect the thermal comfort of occupants in indoor environments and can lead to high uncertainty in the prediction and classification of their thermal preferences. The behavioral adaptation of occupants, by operating window systems for example, changes their thermal experience and expectations and therefore contributes to even higher prediction uncertainty. In this study, we applied a Bayesian neural network (BNN) algorithm to build a predictive model for occupant thermal preference using the ASHRAE Global Thermal Comfort Database II. The Bayesian method allows us to synthesize prior knowledge and available measurements into a unified modeling framework. It also offers a way to express and quantify uncertainty. Here we have performed a systematic study to test the efficiency and robustness of different BNN model configurations. In this study, the results show that the BNN model outperforms conventional thermal comfort models such as Predicted Mean Vote (PMV) and adaptive comfort model. The BNN model tends to produce more confident “prefer cooler” predictions with high possibility and low uncertainty. In contrast, the BNN model produces less certain predictions for “prefer no change” and “prefer warmer” across all occupants. Our findings suggest that linking occupants’ subjective evaluation measures and window opening/closing behavior to thermal comfort modeling effectively improves predictive performance.

32 ENERGY CONSERVATION, CONSUMPTION, AND UTILIZATI↗
DOE OSTI2022

PyAlbany: A Python interface to the C++ multiphysics solver Albany

Albany is a parallel C++ finite element library for solving forward and inverse problems involving partial differential equations (PDEs). In this paper we introduce PyAlbany, a newly developed Python interface to the Albany library. PyAlbany can be used to effectively drive Albany enabling fast and easy analysis and post-processing of applications based on PDEs that are pre-implemented in Albany. PyAlbany relies on the library PyBind11 to bind Python with C++ Albany code. Here we detail the implementation of PyAlbany and showcase its capabilities through a number of examples targeting a heat-diffusion problem. In particular we consider the following: (1) the generation of samples for a Monte Carlo application, (2) a scalability study, (3) a study of parameters on the performance of a linear solver, and finally (4) a tool for performing eigenvalue decompositions of matrix-free operators for a Bayesian inference application.

97 MATHEMATICS AND COMPUTING↗
DOE OSTI2025

Bayesian calibration of bubble size dynamics applied to CO 2 gas fermenters

To accelerate the scale-up of gaseous CO 2 fermentation reactors, computational models need to predict gas-to-liquid mass transfer which requires capturing the bubble size dynamics, i.e. bubble breakup and coalescence. However, the applicability of existing models beyond air–water mixtures remains to be established. Here, an inverse modeling approach, accelerated with a neural network surrogate, calibrates the breakup and coalescence closure models, that are used in class methods for population balance modeling (PBM). The calibration is performed based on experimental results obtained in a CO 2 -air–water-coflowing bubble column reactor. Bayesian inference is used to account for noise in the experimental dataset and bias in the simulation results. To accurately capture gas holdup and interphase mass transfer, the results show that the breakage rate needs to be increased by one order of magnitude. In conclusion, the inferred model parameters are then used on a separate configuration and shown to also improve bubble size distribution predictions.

09 BIOMASS FUELS↗
DOE OSTI2021

Bayesian calibration of strength model parameters from Taylor impact data

Materials strength plays a key role in determining the mechanical response of engineered structures. As such, accurate strength models are crucial in simulations involving complex loading conditions, particularly when deformation in the plastic regime is deemed important. In this work, a Gaussian process based surrogate for a finite element simulation of a Taylor impact test is developed and used for Bayesian calibration of the Preston–Tonks–Wallace strength model. Here, the surrogate model is shown to closely approximate the salient features of the Taylor cylinder deformation and is validated against simulation output before being used in the strength model calibration routine. The results show that Taylor impact test data can be used in the calibration of constitutive equations through the use of a combination of data science techniques, namely Gaussian processes and Bayesian inference.

36 MATERIALS SCIENCE↗
DOE OSTI2020

Nonlinear sparse Bayesian learning for physics-based models

This paper addresses the issue of overfitting while calibrating unknown parameters of over-parameterized physics-based models with noisy and incomplete observations. Here, a semi-analytical Bayesian framework of nonlinear sparse Bayesian learning (NSBL) is proposed to identify sparsity among model parameters during Bayesian inversion. NSBL offers significant advantages over machine learning algorithm of sparse Bayesian learning (SBL) for physics-based models, such as 1) the likelihood function or the posterior parameter distribution is not required to be Gaussian, and 2) prior parameter knowledge is incorporated into sparse learning (i.e. not all parameters are treated as questionable). NSBL employs the concept of automatic relevance determination (ARD) to facilitate sparsity among questionable parameters through parameterized prior distributions. The analytical tractability of NSBL is enabled by employing Gaussian ARD priors and by building a Gaussian mixture-model approximation of the posterior parameter distribution that excludes the contribution of ARD priors. Subsequently, type-II maximum likelihood is executed using Newton's method whereby the evidence and its gradient and Hessian information are computed in a semi-analytical fashion. We show numerically and analytically that SBL is a special case of NSBL for linear regression models. Subsequently, a linear regression example involving multimodality in both parameter posterior pdf and model evidence is considered to demonstrate the performance of NSBL in cases where SBL is inapplicable. Next, NSBL is applied to identify sparsity among the damping coefficients of a mass-spring-damper model of a shear building frame. These numerical studies demonstrate the robustness and efficiency of NSBL in alleviating overfitting during Bayesian inversion of nonlinear physics-based models.

71 CLASSICAL AND QUANTUM MECHANICS, GENERAL PHYSIC↗
DOE OSTI2022

Kernel learning backward SDE filter for data assimilation

In this paper, we develop a kernel learning backward SDE filter method to estimate the state of a stochastic dynamical system based on its partial noisy observations. A system of forward backward stochastic differential equations is used to propagate the state of the target dynamical model, and Bayesian inference is applied to incorporate the observational information. Further, to characterize the dynamical model in the entire state space, we introduce a kernel learning method to learn a continuous global approximation for the conditional probability density function of the target state by using discrete approximated density values as training data. Numerical experiments demonstrate that the kernel learning backward SDE is highly effective.

97 MATHEMATICS AND COMPUTING↗
DOE OSTI2023

Plasma-parameter dependence of ro-vibrational temperatures for H 2 in LHD divertor

We analyzed a thousand visible spectra of Fulcher-α band measured for divertor plasmas in Large Helical Device. With a coronal model and Bayesian inference, the population distribution of hydrogen molecule in the electronic ground state was estimated. The non-thermal population distribution was recovered with a two-temperature model, which has two sets of rotational and vibrational temperatures, as well as their mixture coefficient. The lower rotational temperature significantly changes according to the plasma parameters. Its nearly linear dependence on the electron density was found, which is consistent with previous works. The lower vibrational temperature also shows a small density dependence, as reported by a previous work. On the other hand, the higher rotational and vibrational temperatures as well as the mixture coefficient only show slight changes over the broad range of plasma parameters. These population parameters show a significant correlation; with higher electron density, all the temperatures and the fraction of the higher-temperature component increase simultaneously. In conclusion, this suggests that the electron impact plays an important role to determine the population distribution.

42 ENGINEERING↗
DOE OSTI2021

Uncertainty quantification for Multiphase-CFD simulations of bubbly flows: a machine learning-based Bayesian approach supported by high-resolution experiments

In this paper, we developed a machine learning-based Bayesian approach to inversely quantify and reduce the uncertainties of multiphase computational fluid dynamics (MCFD) simulations for bubbly flows. The proposed approach is supported by high-resolution two-phase flow measurements, including those by double-sensor conductivity probes, high-speed imaging, and particle image velocimetry. Local distributions of key physical quantities of interest (QoIs), including the void fraction and phasic velocities, are obtained to support the Bayesian inference. In the process, the epistemic uncertainties of the closure relations are inversely quantified while the aleatory uncertainties from stochastic fluctuations of the system are evaluated based on experimental uncertainty analysis. The combined uncertainties are then propagated through the MCFD solver to obtain uncertainties of the QoIs, based on which probability-boxes are constructed for validation. The proposed approach relies on three machine learning methods: feedforward neural networks and principal component analysis for surrogate modeling, and Gaussian processes for model form uncertainty modeling. The whole process is implemented within the framework of an open-source deep learning library PyTorch with graphics processing unit (GPU) acceleration, thus ensuring the efficiency of the computation. The results demonstrate that with the support of high-resolution data, the uncertainties of MCFD simulations can be significantly reduced. The proposed approach has the potential for other applications that involve numerical models with empirical parameters.

42 ENGINEERING↗
DOE OSTI2026

Uncertainty quantification and reliability assessment for intermodal freight transportation

Intermodal freight optimization models support cost-effective, low-emission, and timely goods movement by coordinating trucks, rail, and barges. These models determine optimal flows, routing, and modal switches while respecting infrastructure and operational constraints. However, their real-world utility is often undermined by pervasive uncertainties-such as fluctuating transportation costs and emissions, variable terminal capacities, and uncertain freight demand-that distort key performance outcomes, including total system cost, carbon footprint, and transit time reliability. This study presents a structured framework for quantifying uncertainty in intermodal freight transportation (IFT) optimization. The framework evaluates how input uncertainty affects system performance and reliability, a critical need for ensuring that model-based decisions remain robust under real-world variability, especially amid volatile fuel prices, shifting demand, and growing disruptions. It integrates three complementary methods: (1) Sobol-based global sensitivity analysis to identify influential parameters affecting cost, emissions, and transit time, (2) Monte Carlo-based capacity perturbation analysis to assess robustness under probabilistic facility disruptions, and (3) Monte Carlo filtering with Bayesian inference to detect threshold-based performance vulnerabilities. The results highlight diesel truck unit cost as the dominant driver of variability. To improve system resilience, planners should prioritize uncertainty in fuel-related parameters when designing intermodal strategies.

Intermodal freight transportation↗
DOE OSTI2025

Emulator-based Bayesian calibration of a subglacial drainage model

Subglacial drainage models, often motivated by the relationship between hydrology and ice flow, sensitively depend on numerous unconstrained parameters. We explore using borehole water-pressure time series to calibrate the uncertain parameters of a popular subglacial drainage model, taking a Bayesian perspective to quantify the uncertainty in parameter estimates and in the calibrated model predictions. To reduce the computation time associated with Markov Chain Monte Carlo sampling, we construct a fast Gaussian process emulator to stand in for the subglacial drainage model. We first carry out a calibration experiment using synthetic observations consisting of model simulations with hidden parameter values as a demonstration of the method. Using real borehole water pressures measured in western Greenland, we find meaningful constraints on four of the eight model parameters and a factor-of-three reduction in uncertainty of the calibrated model predictions. These experiments illustrate Gaussian process-based Bayesian inference as a useful tool for calibration and uncertainty quantification of complex glaciological models using field data. However, significant differences between the calibrated model and the borehole data suggest that structural limitations of the model, rather than poorly constrained parameters or computational cost, remain the most important constraint on subglacial drainage modelling.

58 GEOSCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2023

Constraining Bedrock Groundwater Residence Times in a Mountain System With Environmental Tracer Observations and Bayesian Uncertainty Quantification

Groundwater residence time distributions provide fundamental insights on the hydrological processes within watersheds. Yet, observations that can constrain groundwater residence times over broad timescales remain scarce in mountain catchment studies. We use environmental tracers (CFC-12, SF 6 , 3 H, and 4 He) to investigate groundwater residence times along a hillslope in the East River Watershed, Colorado, USA. We develop a Bayesian inference framework that applies a Markov-chain Monte Carlo (MCMC) approach to estimate noble gas recharge temperature, elevation, and excess-air parameters and the resulting environmental tracer concentrations. MCMC is then used to propagate the environmental tracer uncertainties to estimates of groundwater mean residence times inferred with lumped parameter models. All samples contain 3 H, CFC-12, and SF 6 in addition to terrigenic 4 He, suggesting a mixture of water characterized by modern and premodern residence times. 4He exponential mean residence times range from hundreds of years at the upslope well to thousands of years at the toe-slope well assuming average crustal production rates. We find that binary mixing residence time distributions with separate young and old mixing fractions are needed to predict the 4 He, CFC-12, SF 6 , and 3 H observations, supporting the importance of flow path mixing in this bedrock system. Our findings that the fractured bedrock hosts groundwater with a mixture of residence times ranging from decades to millennia suggest variable recharge dynamics and flow path mixing along the hillslope and highlight the importance of characterizing groundwater systems with observations that are sensitive to transport over a broad range of residence times.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2024

Prediction of the SYM-H Index Using a Bayesian Deep Learning Method With Uncertainty Quantification

We propose a novel deep learning framework, named SYMHnet, which employs a graph neural network and a bidirectional long short-term memory network to cooperatively learn patterns from solar wind and interplanetary magnetic field parameters for short-term forecasts of the SYM-H index based on 1- and 5-min resolution data. SYMHnet takes, as input, the time series of the parameters' values provided by NASA's Space Science Data Coordinated Archive and predicts, as output, the SYM-H index value at time point t + w hours for a given time point t where w is 1 or 2. By incorporating Bayesian inference into the learning framework, SYMHnet can quantify both aleatoric (data) uncertainty and epistemic (model) uncertainty when predicting future SYM-H indices. Experimental results show that SYMHnet works well at quiet time and storm time, for both 1- and 5-min resolution data. The results also show that SYMHnet generally performs better than related machine learning methods. For example, SYMHnet achieves a forecast skill score (FSS) of 0.343 compared to the FSS of 0.074 of a recent gradient boosting machine (GBM) method when predicting SYM-H indices (1 hr in advance) in a large storm (SYM-H = -393 nT) using 5-min resolution data. When predicting the SYM-H indices (2 hr in advance) in the large storm, SYMHnet achieves an FSS of 0.553 compared to the FSS of 0.087 of the GBM method. In addition, SYMHnet can provide results for both data and model uncertainty quantification, whereas the related methods cannot.

79 ASTRONOMY AND ASTROPHYSICS↗
DOE OSTI2023

Deducing subnanometer cluster size and shape distributions of heterogeneous supported catalysts

Abstract Infrared (IR) spectra of adsorbate vibrational modes are sensitive to adsorbate/metal interactions, accurate, and easily obtainable in-situ or operando. While they are the gold standards for characterizing single-crystals and large nanoparticles, analogous spectra for highly dispersed heterogeneous catalysts consisting of single-atoms and ultra-small clusters are lacking. Here, we combine data-based approaches with physics-driven surrogate models to generate synthetic IR spectra from first-principles. We bypass the vast combinatorial space of clusters by determining viable, low-energy structures using machine-learned Hamiltonians, genetic algorithm optimization, and grand canonical Monte Carlo calculations. We obtain first-principles vibrations on this tractable ensemble and generate single-cluster primary spectra analogous to pure component gas-phase IR spectra. With such spectra as standards, we predict cluster size distributions from computational and experimental data, demonstrated in the case of CO adsorption on Pd/CeO 2 (111) catalysts, and quantify uncertainty using Bayesian Inference. We discuss extensions for characterizing complex materials towards closing the materials gap.

37 INORGANIC, ORGANIC, PHYSICAL, AND ANALYTICAL CH↗