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DOE OSTI2020

Morphological Characters Can Strongly Influence Early Animal Relationships Inferred from Phylogenomic Data Sets

There are considerable phylogenetic incongruencies between morphological and phylogenomic data for the deep evolution of animals. This has contributed to a heated debate over the earliest-branching lineage of the animal kingdom: the sister to all other Metazoa (SOM). Here, we use published phylogenomic data sets ($\sim $45,000–400,000 characters in size with $\sim $15–100 taxa) that focus on early metazoan phylogeny to evaluate the impact of incorporating morphological data sets ($\sim $15–275 characters). We additionally use small exemplar data sets to quantify how increased taxon sampling can help stabilize phylogenetic inferences. We apply a plethora of common methods, that is, likelihood models and their “equivalent” under parsimony: character weighting schemes. Our results are at odds with the typical view of phylogenomics, that is, that genomic-scale data sets will swamp out inferences from morphological data. Instead, weighting morphological data 2–10$\times $ in both likelihood and parsimony can in some cases “flip” which phylum is inferred to be the SOM. This typically results in the molecular hypothesis of Ctenophora as the SOM flipping to Porifera (or occasionally Placozoa). However, greater taxon sampling improves phylogenetic stability, with some of the larger molecular data sets ($>$200,000 characters and up to $\sim $100 taxa) showing node stability even with $\geqq100\times $ upweighting of morphological data. Accordingly, our analyses have three strong messages. 1) The assumption that genomic data will automatically “swamp out” morphological data is not always true for the SOM question. Morphological data have a strong influence in our analyses of combined data sets, even when outnumbered thousands of times by molecular data. Morphology therefore should not be counted out a priori. 2) We here quantify for the first time how the stability of the SOM node improves for several genomic data sets when the taxon sampling is increased. 3) The patterns of “flipping points” (i.e., the weighting of morphological data it takes to change the inferred SOM) carry information about the phylogenetic stability of matrices. The weighting space is an innovative way to assess comparability of data sets that could be developed into a new sensitivity analysis tool.

59 BASIC BIOLOGICAL SCIENCES↗

DOE OSTI2021

IPv6 Tunneling and Translation Technologies Pilot

Based on the latest DOE (Department of Energy) milestones, Sandia needs to convert to IPv6 (Internet Protocol version 6)-only networks over the next 5 years. Our original IPv6 migration plan did not include migrating to IPv6-only networks at any point within the next 10 years, so it must necessarily change. To be successful in this endeavor, we need to evaluate technologies that will enable us to deploy IPv6-only networks early without creating system stability or security issues. We have set up a test environment using technology representative of our production network where we configured and evaluated industry standard translation technologies and techniques. Based on our results, bidirectional translation between IPv4 (Internet Protocol version 4) and IPv6 is achievable with our current equipment, but due to the complexity of the configuration, may not scale well to our production environment.

97 MATHEMATICS AND COMPUTING↗

DOE OSTI2022

Verification of the DIF3D Software to Support Fast Reactor Analysis

Ongoing design activities at Argonne National Laboratory are requiring a thorough verification of the Argonne Reactor Computation codes be performed. DIF3D is central to this system. The driver for this effort requires the 3D Cartesian, triangular-Z, and hexagonal-Z core geometry options of DIF3D be verified. Previous work identified the DIF3D features required to be verified to support current design activities, features of which are generally applicable to hexagonal-Z fast reactor designs. The scope of this verification effort includes verifying DIF3D’s ability to correctly translate the user’s model in to DIF3D’s preferred format, verifying that options planned for use have the desired effect, and verifying the correctness of the eigenvalue, fixed-source, forward, and adjoint solvers in DIF3D-FD and DIF3D-VARIANT. This manuscript provides the verification tasks and their results with respect to the features needed for current design activities. Since analytic solutions of the neutron diffusion and transport equations are either limited in scope or not possible, multiple tiers of problems unique to each solver and geometry type were implemented. Each of these tiers tests features independent and complementary arguments for why the separate testing of functionalities is acceptable. Finally, this separate testing was also supplemented with a high-level integral check of each the diffusion and transport capabilities and applicable geometries. To accommodate cases which an analytic solution is not feasible, MCNP6.2 was relied upon to provide a higher-order reference solution. This therefore required that the capabilities within MCNP6.2 which were relied upon for this work are also verified in this work. No MCNP discrepancies were noted in this effort. Note that the MCNP6.2 verification included in this work does not stand as a full verification of MCNP6.2, but merely verifies the features used in verifying DIF3D. The verification effort identified no issues that are debilitating or otherwise impactful to design usage of DIF3D, and thus DIF3D version 11.0, release 3012 is considered verified. As some additional changes have been made to the ARC software since this point all versions between release 3012 and 3266 can be considered verified as version 3253 was used for all updates in this revision. The types of issues that were identified were predominantly in the areas of: unclear documentation, software bugs which were inconsequential to final results, editing options which were ignored in favor of printing more information than requested, bugs in the outputs of intermediate results, or secondary output binary file information which was not present. While not a bug, this verification report also identified that the algorithm used to evaluate the peak fast flux in a nodal transport solution can be quite unreliable due to the methodology used and the location of the peak within the mesh. The authors of the report therefore recommend the usage of the EvaluateFlux software (distributed with ARC) as a more robust alternative noting that DIF3D will properly notify the user when the peaking values it is providing are potentially incorrect.

97 MATHEMATICS AND COMPUTING↗

DOE OSTI2023

Verification of the DIF3D Software to Support Fast Reactor Analysis (Rev. 3)

22 GENERAL STUDIES OF NUCLEAR REACTORS↗

DOE OSTI2024

Pathway Study for Large-Scale Hydrogen Production from Solid Oxide Electrolysis Cell Technology

This poster was presented at the 2024 FECM/NETL Spring R&D Project Review Meeting. This data is a summary of a project involving large-scale hydrogen production via SOEC technology to identify a technology pathway to achieve the $1/kg hydrogen goal. The poster lays out the identified pathway and technology changes, assumptions, systems, cost results, and sensitivities along with discussion points.

Buchheit, Kyle L.↗

DOE OSTI2022

The Contribution of Proton-Donor pKa on Reactivity Profiles of [FeFe]-hydrogenases

The [FeFe]-hydrogenases are enzymes that catalyze the reversible activation of H 2 coupled to the reduction–oxidation of electron carriers. Members of the different taxonomic groups of [FeFe]-hydrogenases display a wide range of preference, or bias, for H 2 oxidation or H 2 production reactions, despite sharing a common catalytic cofactor, or H-cluster. Identifying the properties that control reactivity remains an active area of investigation, and models have emerged that include diversity in the catalytic site coordination environments and compositions of electron transfer chains. The kinetics of proton-coupled electron transfer at the H-cluster might be expected to be a point of control of reactivity. To test this hypothesis, systematic changes were made to the conserved cysteine residue that functions in proton exchange with the H-cluster in the three model enzymes: CaI, CpII, and CrHydA1. CaI and CpII both employ electron transfer accessory clusters but differ in bias, whereas CrHydA1 lacks accessory clusters having only the H-cluster. Changing from cysteine to either serine (more basic) or aspartate (more acidic) modifies the sidechain pKa and thus the barrier for the proton exchange step. The reaction rates for H 2 oxidation or H 2 evolution were surveyed and measured for model [FeFe]-hydrogenases, and the results show that the initial proton-transfer step in [FeFe]-hydrogenase is tightly coupled to the control of reactivity; a change from cysteine to more basic serine favored H 2 oxidation in all enzymes, whereas a change to more acidic aspartate caused a shift in preference toward H 2 evolution. Overall, the changes in reactivity profiles were profound, spanning 10 5 in ratio of the H 2 oxidation-to-H 2 evolution rates. The fact that the change in reactivity follows a common trend implies that the effect of changing the proton-transfer residue pKa may also be framed as an effect on the scaling relationship between the H-cluster di(thiolmethyl)amine (DTMA) ligand pKa and E m values of the H-cluster. Experimental observations that support this relationship, and how it relates to catalytic function in [FeFe]-hydrogenases, are discussed.

59 BASIC BIOLOGICAL SCIENCES↗

DOE OSTI2023

Understanding AMOC stability: the North Atlantic Hosing Model Intercomparison Project

Abstract. The Atlantic meridional overturning circulation (AMOC) is an important part of our climate system. The AMOC is predicted to weaken under climate change; however, theories suggest that it may have a tipping point beyond which recovery is difficult, hence showing quasi-irreversibility (hysteresis). Although hysteresis has been seen in simple models, it has been difficult to demonstrate in comprehensive global climate models. Here, we outline a set of experiments designed to explore AMOC hysteresis and sensitivity to additional freshwater input as part of the North Atlantic Hosing Model Intercomparison Project (NAHosMIP). These experiments include adding additional freshwater (hosing) for a fixed length of time to examine the rate and mechanisms of AMOC weakening and whether the AMOC subsequently recovers once hosing stops. Initial results are shown from eight climate models participating in the Sixth Coupled Model Intercomparison Project (CMIP6). The AMOC weakens in all models as a result of the freshening, but once the freshening ceases, the AMOC recovers in half of the models, and in the other half it stays in a weakened state. The difference in model behaviour cannot be explained by the ocean model resolution or type nor by details of subgrid-scale parameterisations. Likewise, it cannot be explained by previously proposed properties of the mean climate state such as the strength of the salinity advection feedback. Instead, the AMOC recovery is determined by the climate state reached when hosing stops, with those experiments where the AMOC is weakest not experiencing a recovery.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

DOE OSTI2026

Grid and Wind Transient Ride Through Assessment of Type-5 Synchronous Wind Turbine

The integration of the inverter-based renewable energy resources is increasing and replacing conventional synchronous generators in the evolving bulk power system (BPS), impacting the system inertia along the way. Also, the limited over-current capability of power electronic converters continues to deteriorate the grid strength of the evolving power systems. Type-5 wind turbines have the potential to mitigate these problems because this configuration interfaces with the grid through a synchronous generator; hence, its operation and consequent grid impacts might mimic the conventional synchronous generator. The drivetrain of this type of turbines, however, is different from the more common Type-3 and Type-4 turbines. A hydraulic torque converter and gearbox with torque limiting feature are integral parts of a Type-5 wind turbine drivetrain, to isolate the wind speed variations at the wind turbine rotor from the grid connected generator side. This supports the synchronous operation of the generator. However, high fidelity models of Type-5 wind turbine drivetrain including these core components are not openly and widely available for grid integration and transient stability studies. Moreover, Type-5 turbines are not commonly deployed and hence its power generation and frequency stability characteristics are not widely publicized. This hinders appropriate assessment of Type-5 wind power plant's contribution to bulk grid resilience. This work provides transient stability assessment of a standalone Type-5 wind turbine. Normal operation and grid transient studies are performed to see the step load change and wind speed disturbance impacts on the Type-5 drivetrain and generation dispatch. Preliminary results show that Type-5 wind turbines can support load changes of between 0.6 p.u to 1.15 p.u. Beyond this point, the synchronization of the generator starts to deviate from its set point.

17 - WIND ENERGY↗

DOE OSTI2020

Understanding Structures of Cyber Competition in an Era of Major Power Rivalry

Over the past two decades, the cyber domain has emerged and evolved into a key strategic domain for nations across the globe. Security strategies are espoused by heads of state that focus on how to manage the increasingly enormous, crosscutting impact that the cyber domain has on national security across economic, military, intelligence, intellectual property, and countless other facets. These strategies frequently evolve, and even change entirely, as leaders adapt to new technologies and administrations change. Even if these strategies did not change at all, they would take inordinate amounts of time to effectively implement within the organizational structures of government. The time required to go from setting department and agency-level goals, to the time small teams have well-oiled processes and expertise to accomplish tactical objectives that meet the strategic vision is lengthy. With near certainty, by the time objectives and vision are implemented, the landscape, strategy, or both has changed entirely. While this churn will likely never cease due to the rapidly changing nature of the cyber domain, this problem raises an important question: can governmental structures be organized to rapidly adapt to changing cyber strategies? As offices responsible for particular missions in cyberspace shuffle about within the bureaucracy, are technical capabilities enabled or enhanced? No matter how advanced a particular technical capability is or how adept the staff is at solving problems, they will be ineffective if placed haphazardly within the organization: the right authorities may not exist for their office, the correct lines of interpersonal communication may not be established properly, or insufficient resources have not been allocated to effectively deploy a brilliant technical solution. This concept of organizational agility in the context of national cyber capabilities is important when taking into account the National Defense Strategy’s emphasis on cyber capability and the ability of the United States to compete and rapidly adapt to new challenges posed by rivals. As a nation, we are at a point where technology evolves rapidly enough to warrant thoughtful and nimble changes to the bureaucratic structures that support how cyber operations are carried out. Taking these questions and cross-comparing them to the organizational structures across China, Russia, and the United States provides for an interesting thought experiment. As non-democratic regimes, China and Russia have differing priorities and internal power dynamics than the United States and thus organize their governments differently. By combining known and broadcasted strategies of these nations with the observed technical capabilities demonstrated in the public domain, we can begin to see how organizational structures map to strategic goals and directly enable technical capabilities. Insight can be gained by introducing organizational structures into traditional analysis focusing solely around strategies and capabilities; additionally, otherwise unknown capabilities or intents might be discovered or inferred by analyzing organizational structures alone. Analyzing cyber operations from this oft-overlooked perspective could potentially provide useful insight and more concrete actions that can be undertaken to realize the National Defense Strategy’s goals.

45 MILITARY TECHNOLOGY, WEAPONRY, AND NATIONAL DEF↗

DOE OSTI2024

A Research Testbed for Experimental Connectivity and Automation in Cars

Cyber-physical systems (CPS) are engineered systems in which the computational components and physical components of the system are interdependent and deeply linked. Discovery and development of CPS technologies are changing the way people interact with engineered systems. To demonstrate this point, consider the Global Positioning System (GPS) which revolutionized personal mobility. Its research origins stem from the US Department of Defense in 1973 for military use. By 2000 limitations on civilian consumption of GPS service were lifted. Immediately, personal GPS products were shipped for in-car navigation systems. Soon after, GPS receivers were embedded into mobile phones with the introduction of the Nokia N95 and Apple iPhone for maps and turn-by-turn navigation. With the benefit of hindsight we can see that GPS has become a cornerstone technology of our daily life. Satellite-based navigation has gone from a radical space technology, to a matter of uninteresting availability; it is the typical way that people navigate through roadways now. The combination of the satellite infrastructure, the integration of receiver modules, and powerful maps applications has significantly changed mobility in the 21st century.

42 ENGINEERING↗

DOE OSTI2021

Early-stage dynamics of chloride ion–pumping rhodopsin revealed by a femtosecond X-ray laser

Chloride ion–pumping rhodopsin (ClR) in some marine bacteria utilizes light energy to actively transport Cl – into cells. How the ClR initiates the transport is elusive. Here, we show the dynamics of ion transport observed with time-resolved serial femtosecond (fs) crystallography using the Linac Coherent Light Source. X-ray pulses captured structural changes in ClR upon flash illumination with a 550 nm fs-pumping laser. High-resolution structures for five time points (dark to 100 ps after flashing) reveal complex and coordinated dynamics comprising retinal isomerization, water molecule rearrangement, and conformational changes of various residues. Combining data from time-resolved spectroscopy experiments and molecular dynamics simulations, this study reveals that the chloride ion close to the Schiff base undergoes a dissociation–diffusion process upon light-triggered retinal isomerization.

37 INORGANIC, ORGANIC, PHYSICAL, AND ANALYTICAL CH↗

DOE OSTI2025

Digital Filter Design for Point-on-Wave Sensors: Highlighting Frequency Response Limitations and Enhancing Grid Simulation Accuracy

Data is proving to be the backbone of today's and, more importantly, tomorrow's grid. As the system changes and introduces fast-acting devices like power electronics, overall observability tends to decrease from the utility point-of-view. This can be mitigated by adding more high-fidelity sensors onto the grid, although this incurs a cost. These sensors are never ideal, and each have unique frequency responses that may influence the data produced. This may, in turn, impact the protection and control of the power grid. This paper presents a methodology of representing these point-on-wave sensors digitally by estimating digital-filter representations of them, thereby introducing means of improving the sensor models used in electromagnetic-transient (EMT) simulations. This may help with identifying potential high-frequency, sensor-induced distortions, and system resonance compensation. Three commercial-grade medium-voltage point-on-wave sensors are utilized in a lab environment to obtain experimental frequency responses with a frequency sweep, and it is shown that both Infinite Impulse Response (IIR) and Finite Impulse Response (FIR) filter representations may approximate these responses with varying degrees of accuracy, though each has their own strengths and weaknesses. It is found that, in general, FIR estimation better approximates these sensors than IIR estimation does.

Wilson, Aaron [ORNL] (ORCID:0000000327331697)↗

DOE OSTI2020

Algorithms for Efficient Reproducible Floating Point Summation

We define “reproducibility” as getting bitwise identical results from multiple runs of the same program, perhaps with different hardware resources or other changes that should not affect the answer. Many users depend on reproducibility for debugging or correctness. However, dynamic scheduling of parallel computing resources, combined with nonassociative floating point addition, makes reproducibility challenging even for summation, or operations like the BLAS. We describe a “reproducible accumulator” data structure (the “binned number”) and associated algorithms to reproducibly sum binary floating point numbers, independent of summation order. We use a subset of the IEEE Floating Point Standard 754-2008 and bitwise operations on the standard representations in memory. Our approach requires only one read-only pass over the data, and one reduction in parallel, using a 6-word reproducible accumulator (more words can be used for higher accuracy), enabling standard tiling optimization techniques. Summing n words with a 6-word reproducible accumulator requires approximately 9 n floating point operations (arithmetic, comparison, and absolute value) and approximately 3 n bitwise operations. The final error bound with a 6-word reproducible accumulator and our default settings can be up to 2 29 times smaller than the error bound for conventional (recursive) summation on ill-conditioned double-precision inputs.

Computer Science↗

DOE OSTI2022

Inferring small-sample-reactivity worth from oscillation experiment with auto-corrected local flux

To estimate reactivity changes as a function of time from the signal of detectors count rates, one usually uses point kinetic equations. However, when detectors are located inside the core, it is often necessary to compute a correction factor to account for the flux-shape deformation (i.e. the change of detector efficiency that may have been induced by neutron absorbers movements). Various simulation methods have been developed depending on transients observed. They range from the resolution of static equations up to full-time-dependent neutron transport in 3D. However, those methods require high computational-cost calculations of local reaction rates that rely on nuclear data evaluations. Therefore, a 'measured' reactivity is never determined through pure measurements. Taking advantage of the known oscillation movement of a small sample at the center of the MINERVE reactor, the innovative algorithm presented in this paper derives the correction factor needed to get no time drift on reactivity steps. Derived correction factors are in good agreement with those obtained independently with TRIPOLI-4 through sensitivity analysis. Low sensitivity to the sample composition and moderate sensitivity to the detectors position reinforce the reliability of those results. This application paves the way to almost pure nuclear data reactivity measurements. (authors)

21 SPECIFIC NUCLEAR REACTORS AND ASSOCIATED PLANTS↗

DOE OSTI2021

The Changing-look Blazar B2 1420+32

Abstract Blazars are active galactic nuclei with their relativistic jets pointing toward the observer, comprising two major subclasses, flat-spectrum radio quasars (FSRQs) and BL Lac objects. We present multiwavelength photometric and spectroscopic monitoring observations of the blazar B2 1420+32, focusing on its outbursts in 2018–2020. Multiepoch spectra show that the blazar exhibited large-scale spectral variability in both its continuum and line emission, accompanied by dramatic gamma-ray and optical variability by factors of up to 40 and 15, respectively, on week to month timescales. Over the last decade, the gamma-ray and optical fluxes increased by factors of 1500 and 100, respectively. B2 1420+32 was an FSRQ with broad emission lines in 1995. Following a series of flares starting in 2018, it transitioned between BL Lac and FSRQ states multiple times, with the emergence of a strong Fe pseudocontinuum. Two spectra also contain components that can be modeled as single-temperature blackbodies of 12,000 and 5200 K. Such a collection of “changing-look” features has never been observed previously in a blazar. We measure gamma-ray–optical and interband optical lags implying emission-region separations of less than 800 and 130 gravitational radii, respectively. Since most emission-line flux variations, except the Fe continuum, are within a factor of 2–3, the transitions between FSRQ and BL Lac classifications are mainly caused by the continuum variability. The large Fe continuum flux increase suggests the occurrence of dust sublimation releasing more Fe ions in the central engine and an energy transfer from the relativistic jet to subrelativistic emission components.

Astronomy & Astrophysics↗

DOE OSTI2022

A Note on the Probability of Initiation Problem

The purpose of this note is to draw attention to Pál for his derivation of the Pál-Bell equation which is used by LLNL and LANL to model Probability of Initiation (POI) problems. Both laboratories credit the equation to Bell and Lee. Although the equation formulated by Bell and Lee and the equation derived by Pál appear to be the same, the equation by Bell and Lee is flawed. Scattering, which was absent in Bell’s original formulation of a POI problem, was later introduced by Bell and Lee by replacing a fission term with a scattering term. Such a replacement, however, leads to an incorrect average number $\overline{v}$ of neutrons that is produced in a fission event. By approaching a POI problem from probabilistic point of view, Pál formulates the problem as a branching process that i) describes the growth of a population of neutrons in a fissile medium, and ii) predicts $\overline{v}$ correctly. There are five reasons for writing this report. The first is to clarify the failing in Bell and Lee’s derivation. The second is to establish the origin of the equation used by the laboratories. The third is to elucidate the fixed point technique formulated by Mokhtar-Kharroubi to solve the Pál-Bell equation. The fourth is to derive the α eigenvalue that is associated with a super-critical situation. The fifth is to describe in the Appendix a second order positivity preserving technique that accelerates the convergence of the first order fixed point method developed by Mokhtar-Kharroubi.

73 NUCLEAR PHYSICS AND RADIATION PHYSICS↗

DOE OSTI2022

A Note on the Probability of Initiation Problem

The purpose of this note is to draw attention to Pál’s derivation of the Pál Bell equation which is used by LLNL and LANL to model Probability of Initiation (POI) problems. Both laboratories credit the equation to Bell and Lee. Although the equation formulated by Bell and Lee and the equation derived by Pál appear to be the same, the derivation by Bell and Lee is flawed. Scattering, which was absent in Bell’s original formulation of a POI problem, was later introduced by Bell and Lee by simply replacing a fission term with a scattering term. Such a replacement, however, leads to an inaccurate average number v̅ of neutrons that is produced by a fission event. By approaching a POI problem from probabilistic point of view, Pál formulates the problem as a branching process that determines v̅ correctly. There are six reasons for writing this report. The first is to clarify the failing in Bell and Lee’s derivation. The second is to establish the origin of the equation used by the laboratories. The third is to elucidate the fixed point technique formulated by Mokhtar-Kharroubi for solving the Pál-Bell equation. The fourth is to derive the α eigenvalue that is associated with a time dependent Pál-Bell equation. The fifth is to show in Appendix A that the non-linear fission operator of the Pál-Bell equation is descended from the operator of the Galton-Watson process of stochastic theory. The sixth is to describe in Appendix B a second order positivity preserving technique that accelerates the convergence of the first order fixed point method developed by Mokhtar-Kharroubi.

73 NUCLEAR PHYSICS AND RADIATION PHYSICS↗

DOE OSTI2023

Projecting Future Energy Production from Operating Wind Farms in North America. Part II: Statistical Downscaling

Abstract Capacity factors (CFs) derived from daily expected power at 22 operating wind farms in different regions of North America are used as predictands to train statistical downscaling algorithms using output from ERA5. The statistical downscaling models are then used to make CF projections for a suite of CMIP6 Earth System Models (ESMs). Downscaling is performed using a hybrid statistical approach that employs synoptic types derived using k -means clustering applied to sea level pressure fields with variance corrections applied as a function of the pressure gradient intensity. ESMs exhibit marked variability in terms of the skill with which the frequency of synoptic types and pressure gradients are reproduced relative to ERA5, and that differential skill is used to infer differential credibility in the associated CF projections. Projections of median annual mean CF [P50(CF)] in each 20-yr period from 1980 to 2099 show evidence of declines at most wind farms except in parts of the southern Great Plains, although the magnitude of the changes is strongly dependent on the ESM. For example, P50(CF) in 2080–99 deviate from those in 1980–99 by from −3.1 to +0.2 percentage points in the Northeast. The largest-magnitude declines in P50(CF) ranging from −3.9 to −2 percentage points are projected for the southern West Coast. CF trends exhibit marked seasonality and are strongly linked to changes in the relative intensity of future synoptic patterns, with much less impact from shifts in the occurrence of synoptic types over time. Internal climate modes continue to play a significant role in inducing interannual variability in wind power production, even under high radiative forcing scenarios. Significance Statement We describe how future climate changes may affect wind resources and wind power generation. Near-term changes in projected wind power electricity generation potential at operating wind farms over North America are small, but by the end of the current century electricity production is projected to decrease in many areas but may increase in parts of the southern Great Plains. The amount of change in projected wind power production is a strong function of the Earth system model that is downscaled and also depends on the continued presence of internally forced climate variability. An additional dependence on the amount of greenhouse gas–induced global warming indicates the transition of the energy sector to low-carbon sources may assist in maintaining the abundant U.S. wind resource.

Meteorology & Atmospheric Sciences↗