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Search indexed NASA NTRS and DOE OSTI research on propulsion, heat transfer, battery materials and energy systems. Follow report and document links to the original sources.

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NASA NTRS2021

GCAP 2.0: A Global 3-D Chemical-Transport Model Framework for Past, Present, and Future Climate Scenarios

This paper describes version 2.0 of the Global Change and Air Pollution (GCAP 2.0) model framework, a one-way offline coupling between version E2.1 of the NASA Goddard Institute for Space Studies (GISS) general circulation model (GCM) and the GEOS-Chem global 3-D chemical-transport model (CTM). Meteorology for driving GEOS-Chem has been archived from the E2.1 contributions to phase 6 of the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project (CMIP6) for the pre-industrial era and the recent past. In addition, meteorology is available for the near future and end of the century for seven future scenarios ranging from extreme mitigation to extreme warming. Emissions and boundary conditions have been prepared for input to GEOS-Chem that are consistent with the CMIP6 experimental design. The model meteorology, emissions, transport, and chemistry are evaluated in the recent past and found to be largely consistent with GEOS-Chem driven by the Modern-Era Retrospective analysis for Research and Applications version 2 (MERRA-2) product and with observational constraints.

Global Change and Air Pollution (GCAP 2.0) model↗
NASA NTRS2009

The Impact of Geoengineering Aerosols on Stratospheric Temperature and Ozone

Anthropogenic greenhouse gas emissions are warming the global climate at an unprecedented rate. Significant emission reductions will be required soon to avoid a rapid temperature rise. As a potential interim measure to avoid extreme temperature increase, it has been suggested that Earth's albedo be increased by artificially enhancing stratospheric sulfate aerosols. We use a 3D chemistry climate model, fed by aerosol size distributions from a zonal mean aerosol model, to simulate continuous injection of 1-10 Mt/a into the lower tropical stratosphere. In contrast to the case for all previous work, the particles are predicted to grow to larger sizes than are observed after volcanic eruptions. The reason is the continuous supply of sulfuric acid and hence freshly formed small aerosol particles, which enhance the formation of large aerosol particles by coagulation and, to a lesser extent, by condensation. Owing to their large size, these particles have a reduced albedo. Furthermore, their sedimentation results in a non-linear relationship between stratospheric aerosol burden and annual injection, leading to a reduction of the targeted cooling. More importantly, the sedimenting particles heat the tropical cold point tropopause and, hence, the stratospheric entry mixing ratio of H2O increases. Therefore, geoengineering by means of sulfate aerosols is predicted to accelerate the hydroxyl catalyzed ozone destruction cycles and cause a significant depletion of the ozone layer even though future halogen concentrations will be significantly reduced.

Heckendorn, P.↗
NASA NTRS2011

The Impact of Geoengineering Aerosols on Stratospheric Temperature and Ozone

Anthropogenic greenhouse gas emissions are warming the global climate at an unprecedented rate. Significant emission reductions will be required soon to avoid a rapid temperature rise. As a potential interim measure to avoid extreme temperature increase, it has been suggested that Earth's albedo be increased by artificially enhancing stratospheric sulfate aerosols. We use a 3D chemistry climate model, fed by aerosol size distributions from a zonal mean aerosol model. to simulate continuous injection of 1-10 Mt/a into the lower tropical stratosphere. In contrast to the case for all previous work, the particles are predicted to grow to larger sizes than are observed after volcanic eruptions. The reason is the continuous supply of sulfuric acid and hence freshly formed small aerosol particles, which enhance the formation of large aerosol particles by coagulation and, to a lesser extent, by condensation. Owing to their large size, these particles have a reduced albedo. Furthermore, their sedimentation results in a non-linear relationship between stratospheric aerosol burden and annual injection, leading to a reduction of the targeted cooling. More importantly, the sedimenting particles heat the tropical cold point tropopause and, hence, the stratospheric entry mixing ratio of H2O increases. Therefore, geoengineering by means of sulfate aerosols is predicted to accelerate the hydroxyl catalyzed ozone destruction cycles and cause a significant depletion of the ozone layer even though future halogen concentrations will he significantly reduced.

Heckendorn, P.↗
NASA NTRS2021

Montana Water Resources II: Enhancing a Moisture Index for Drought and Flood Monitoring in the Missouri River Basin

The Missouri River Basin is a major global breadbasket, containing large amounts of agricultural land. Recent devastating weather events have motivated regional organizations to dedicate efforts to drought and flood monitoring and early warning systems. The DEVELOP team partnered with the following organizations: Montana Climate Office, NOAA National Weather Service (NWS) Missouri Basin River Forecast Center, NOAA Regional Climate Services of the Central Region, NOAA Physical Sciences Laboratory, and the US Army Corps of Engineers' Missouri River Basin Water Management Division. The team collaborated with the partners in their efforts to monitor flood and drought by enhancing a composite moisture index (CMI) for the Missouri River Basin. The CMI leverages NASA Earth observations to derive snow cover data from the Terra Moderate Resolution Imaging Spectroradiometer (MODIS) mission and snow water equivalent and snowdepth datasets from the NOAA NWS National Operational Hydrologic Remote Sensing Center’s Snow Data Assimilation System (SNODAS). Building upon this framework, the team added groundwater storage data from the Gravity Recovery and Climate Experiment (GRACE) and GRACE Follow-On missions, soil moisture data from Soil Moisture Active Passive (SMAP), and United States Geological Survey in situ streamflow data to the CMI. To test the tool’s validity, the team compared the CMI results to historically extreme dry and extreme wet years, March 2017 and March 2019, respectively. The CMI accurately reflects both 2017 and 2019 climate conditions in the Missouri River Basin. The refined CMI enhances the understanding of antecedent soil moisture conditions and improves flood and drought forecasting in the Missouri River Basin before the growing season.

Chloe Schneider↗
NASA NTRS2001

Climate Change in the US: Potential Consequences for Human Health

The U.S. National Assessment identified five major areas of consequences of climate change in the United States: temperature-related illnesses and deaths, health effects related to extreme weather events, air pollution-related health effects, water- and food-borne diseases, and insect-, tick-, and rodent-borne diseases. The U.S. National Assessment final conclusions about these potential health effects will be described. In addition, a summary of some of the new tools for studying human health aspects of climate change as well as environment-health linkages through remotely sensed data and observations will be provided.

Maynard, Nancy G.↗
NASA NTRS1984

Quaternary North Atlantic Surface Paleoceanography in Regions of Potential Deep-water Formation

At the time scale of the Quaternary climate cycles, the sites of formation of North Atlantic Deep Water are not known. The interglacial extreme is presumably exemplified by the modern regions; the Norwegian, Greenland and Labrador Seas. During the major glacial-age coolings in the North Atlantic, the sites may have shifted well to the south, perhaps as far as the limit of the polar front at 40 to 50 N. Still other sites may have been important during intermediate climatic conditions. Because of the close coupling of high-latitude surface waters to North Atlantic Deep Water in the modern ocean, the history of sea-surface temperature (SST) oscillations across the high-latitude North Atlantic is relevant to an understanding of deep-water formation on the longer time scales.

Ruddiman, W. F.↗
NASA NTRS2021

Extreme Ozone Loss Following Nuclear War Results in Enhanced Surface Ultraviolet Radiation

For the first time, we use a modern climate model with interactive chemistry including the effects of aerosols on photolysis rates to simulate the consequences of regional and global scale nuclear wars (injecting 5 and 150 Tg of soot respectively) for the ozone layer and surface ultraviolet (UV) light. For a global nuclear war, heating in the stratosphere, reduced photolysis, and an increase in catalytic loss from the Hox cycle cause a 15 year-long reduction in the ozone column, with a peak loss of 75% globally and 65% in the tropics. This is larger than predictions from the 1980s, which assumed large injections of nitrogen oxides (NOx),but did not include the effects of smoke. NOx from the fireball and the fires provide a small (5%) Increase to the global average ozone loss for the first few years. Initially, soot would shield the surface from UV-B, but UV Index values would become extreme: greater than 35in the tropics for 4years, and greater than 45during the summer in the southern polar regions for 3 years. For a regional war, global column ozone would be reduced by 25% with recovery taking 12 years. This is similar to previous simulations, but with a faster recovery time due to a shorter lifetime for soot in our simulations. In-line photolysis provides process specific action spectra enabling future integration with biogeochemistry models and allows output that quantifies the potential health impacts from changes in surface UV for this and other larger aerosol injections.

nuclear war↗
NASA NTRS2016

Extreme Water Deficit in Brazil Detected from Space

Extreme droughts have caused significant socioeconomic and environmental damage worldwide. In Brazil, ineffective energy development and water management policies have magnified the impacts of recent severe droughts, which include massive agricultural losses, water supply restrictions, and energy rationing. Spaceborne remote sensing data advance our understanding of the spatiotemporal variability of large-scale droughts and enhance the detection and monitoring of extreme water-related events. In this study, data derived from the Gravity Recovery and Climate Experiment (GRACE) mission are used to detect and quantify an extended major drought over eastern Brazil and provide estimates of impacted areas and region-specific water deficits. Two structural breakpoint detection methods were applied to time series of GRACE-based terrestrial water storage anomalies (TWSA), determining when two abrupt changes occurred. One, in particular, defines the beginning of the current drought. Using TWSA, a water loss rate of 26.1 cmyr21 over southeastern Brazil was detected from 2012 to 2015. Based on analysis of Global Land Data Assimilation System(GLDAS) outputs, the extreme drought is mostly related to lower-than-usual precipitation rates, resulting in high soil moisture depletion and lower-than-usual rates of evapotranspiration. A reduction of 2023 of precipitation over an extended period of 3 years is enough to raise serious water scarcity conditions in the country. Correlations between monthly time series of both grid-based TWSA and ground-based water storage measurements at 16 reservoirs located within southeastern Brazil varied from 0.42 to 0.82. Differences are mainly explained by reservoir sizes and proximity to the drought nucleus.

terrestrial↗
NASA NTRS2000

In Space Nuclear Power as an Enabling Technology for Deep Space Exploration

Deep Space Exploration missions, both for scientific and Human Exploration and Development (HEDS), appear to be as weight limited today as they would have been 35 years ago. Right behind the weight constraints is the nearly equally important mission limitation of cost. Launch vehicles, upper stages and in-space propulsion systems also cost about the same today with the same efficiency as they have had for many years (excluding impact of inflation). Both these dual mission constraints combine to force either very expensive, mega systems missions or very light weight, but high risk/low margin planetary spacecraft designs, such as the recent unsuccessful attempts for an extremely low cost mission to Mars during the 1998-99 opportunity (i.e., Mars Climate Orbiter and the Mars Polar Lander). When one considers spacecraft missions to the outer heliopause or even the outer planets, the enormous weight and cost constraints will impose even more daunting concerns for mission cost, risk and the ability to establish adequate mission margins for success. This paper will discuss the benefits of using a safe in-space nuclear reactor as the basis for providing both sufficient electric power and high performance space propulsion that will greatly reduce mission risk and significantly increase weight (IMLEO) and cost margins. Weight and cost margins are increased by enabling much higher payload fractions and redundant design features for a given launch vehicle (higher payload fraction of IMLEO). The paper will also discuss and summarize the recent advances in nuclear reactor technology and safety of modern reactor designs and operating practice and experience, as well as advances in reactor coupled power generation and high performance nuclear thermal and electric propulsion technologies. It will be shown that these nuclear power and propulsion technologies are major enabling capabilities for higher reliability, higher margin and lower cost deep space missions design to reliably reach the outer planets for scientific exploration.

Sackheim, Robert L.↗
NASA NTRS2002

Cloud Coverage Enhancement and Nocturnal Drizzle Suppression in Stratocumulus by Aerosols

Recent satellite observations of ship tracks surprisingly indicate that cloud water decreases with increasing droplet concentrations. However, we find by analyzing detailed simulations of stratocumulus that the reported trend is likely an artifact of sampling, only overcast clouds. The simulations instead show cloud coverage increasing with droplet concentrations, accounting for 25% of cloud albedo increase at moderate droplet concentrations. Our simulations also show that increases in cloud water from drizzle suppression (by increasing droplet concentrations) are favored only at night or at extremely low droplet concentrations, suggesting that the indirect aerosol forcing is overestimated in climate change projections by many general circulation models.

Ackerman, Andrew S.↗
NASA NTRS2019

The K Dwarf Advantage for Biosignatures on Directly Imaged Exoplanets

Oxygen and methane are considered to be the canonical biosignatures of modern Earth, and the simultaneous detection of these gases in a planetary atmosphere is an especially strong biosignature. However, these gases may be challenging to detect together in the planetary atmospheres because photochemical oxygen radicals destroy methane. Previous work has shown that the photochemical lifetime of methane in oxygenated atmospheres is longer around M dwarfs, but M dwarf planet habitability may be hindered by extreme stellar activity and evolution. Here, we use a 1-D photochemical-climate model to show that K dwarf stars also offer a longer photochemical lifetime of methane in the presence of oxygen compared to G dwarfs. For example, we show that a planet orbiting a K6V star can support about an order of magnitude more methane in its atmosphere compared to an equivalent planet orbiting a G2V star. In the reflected light spectra of worlds orbiting K dwarf stars, strong oxygen and methane features could be observed at visible and near-infrared wavelengths. Because K dwarfs are dimmer than G dwarfs, they offer a better planet-star contrast ratio, enhancing the signal-to-noise (SNR) possible in a given observation. For instance, a 50 hour observation of a planet at 7 pc with a 15-m telescope yields SNR = 9.2 near 1 µm for a planet orbiting a solar-type G2V star, and SNR = 20 for the same planet orbiting a K6V star. In particular, nearby mid-late K dwarfs such as 61 Cyg A/B, Epsilon Indi, Groombridge 1618, and HD 156026 may be excellent targets for future biosignature searches.

Giada N Arney↗
NASA NTRSDate not supplied

Updates of MERRA-2 Data and Services at NASA GES DISC

Over40 years of NASA climate reanalysis datasets from the Modern-Era Retrospective analysis for Research and Applications, Version 2 (MERRA-2) are available at the NASA Goddard Earth Sciences Data and Information Services Center (GES DISC). In addition to being used in traditional weather and climate research, MERRA-2 is also widely used in application studies of, e.g., wind and solar energy, air quality and health, food and drought, and heat waves. Two new MERRA-2 datasets were recently added at the GES DISC: (1) climate statistics derived fromMERRA-2 daily data to assist in the analysis of extreme temperature and precipitation events and of large-scale meteorological patterns from 1980 to the present and (2) gridded satellite and conventional observations processed in the MERRA-2 system, along with key statistics derived from the data assimilation, to help better understand how the quality of observations directly affect there analysis data. The GES DISC focuses its efforts on continually improving existing data services and to develop new data tools to satisfy various user communities. The newly added features include the following: Time series service: This is a new service for MERRA-2 data, which enables the easy and fast access of long-term hourly or daily time series at a location for popular parameters. The data is saved in a single le in Ascii format with a user- friendly structure. New analytic functions in the subsetter interface: Options for downloading daily minimum and maximum values have been added into the subsetter interface, in addition to the existing daily mean option, for all MERRA-2 and MERRA sub-daily products. Data format conversion to GeoTIFF has been implemented. New variables in Giovanni: Most monthly variables have been integrated into Giovanni, GESDISC’s online visualization and analysis tool. Due to the large data volume, hourly variables were selected based on user requests. More online information: New MERRA-2 documentation has been added: Data How-To, Data in Action, and FAQ. This presentation overviews two new MERRA-2 datasets and illustrates the new features of data services through a number of case studies. MERRA-2 data and services can be found at: https://disc.gsfc.gov/datasets?

Data management↗
NASA NTRS2009

MODIS Solar Reflective Calibration Traceability

Long-term climate data records often consist of observations made by multiple sensors. It is, therefore, extremely important to have instrument overlap, to be able to track instrument stability, to quantify, measurement uncertainties, and to establish absolute scale traceable to the International System of Units (SI). The Moderate Resolution Imaging Spectroradiometer (MODIS) is a key instrument for both the Terra and Aqua missions, which were launched in December 1999 and May 2002, respectively. It has 20 reflective solar bands (RSB) with wavelengths from 0.41 to 2.2 micrometers and observes the Earth at three nadir spatial resolutions: 0.25km, 0.5km, and 1km. MODIS RSB on-orbit calibration is reflectance based with reference to the bidirectional reflectance factor (BRF) of its on-board solar diffuser (SD). The SD BRF characterization was made pre-launch by the instrument vendor using reference samples traceable directly to the National Institute of Standards and Technology (NIST). On-orbit SD reflectance degradation is tracked by an on-board solar diffuser monitor (SDSM). This paper provides details of this calibration chain, from prelaunch to on-orbit operation, and associated uncertainty assessments. Using MODIS as an example, this paper also discusses challenges and key design requirements for future missions developed for accurate climate studies.

Xiong, Xiaoxiong↗
NASA NTRS2020

The Resilience of Habitable Climates Around Circumbinary Stars

Here we use a 3‐D climate system model to study the habitability of Earth‐like planets orbiting in circumbinary systems. In the most extreme cases, Earth‐like planets in circumbinary systems could experience variations in the incident stellar flux of up to ~50% on ~100‐day timescales. However, we find that Earth‐like planets, having abundant surface liquid water, are generally effective at buffering against these time‐dependent changes in the stellar irradiation due to the high thermal inertia of oceans compared with the relatively short periods of circumbinary‐driven variations in the received stellar flux. Ocean surface temperatures exhibit little to no variation in time; however, land surfaces can experience modest changes in temperature, thus exhibiting an additional mode of climate variability driven by the circumbinary variations. Still, meaningful oscillations in surface temperatures are only found for circumbinary system architectures featuring the largest physically possible amplitudes in the stellar flux variation. In the most extreme cases, an Earth‐like planet could experience circumbinary‐driven variations in the global mean land surface temperature of up to ~5 K, and variations of local daytime maximum temperatures of up to ~12 K on seasonal timescales, while the global mean ocean temperatures vary by less than ~2 K. Such seasonal temperature swings over land areas could potentially pose adaptability challenges for extant life. Still, habitable planets in circumbinary systems appear to be remarkably resilient against circumbinary‐driven climate variations and can avoid any true climate catastrophes.

Eric T Wolf↗
NASA NTRS2023

Changing Nature of High-Impact Snowfall Events in Eastern North America

Snowstorms cause substantial disruption in the eastern United States and Canada each winter. While reductions in annual snowfall are projected over most of this region due to anthropogenic global warming, daily snowfall extremes that have the greatest impact may not decrease in the same manner. We examine changes to two extreme snowfall metrics: the 95th percentile of daily snowfall (SF95, cm) and the number of events during which 10% of the mean annual snowfall is exceeded during a single day (TC10, events yr−1). We explore changes to these metrics in two ensembles of the fifth-generation Canadian Regional Climate Model (CRCM5), including four 0.22° ( ≈ 25 km) simulations driven by different coupled general circulation models as well as the higher-resolution (0.11°, ≈ 12 km) ClimEx ensemble, driven by 50 members of a large initial-condition ensemble of one global model. We find that while mean annual snowfall is projected to decrease over our domain, SF95 is projected to remain relatively constant, suggesting that the most extreme daily snowfalls currently observed are likely to occur even in a warmer future climate. The region of the largest TC10 values exhibits a northward shift, with a larger percentage of annual snowfall occurring during a few large events along the U.S.-Canada border. These projected changes to the nature of snowfall events may have important socioeconomic consequences in this densely populated region of North America.

heavy snow↗
NASA NTRS2013

Causes and Predictability of the 2012 Great Plains Drought

Central Great Plains precipitation deficits during May-August 2012 were the most severe since at least 1895, eclipsing the Dust Bowl summers of 1934 and 1936. Drought developed suddenly in May, following near-normal precipitation during winter and early spring. Its proximate causes were a reduction in atmospheric moisture transport into the Great Plains from the Gulf of Mexico. Processes that generally provide air mass lift and condensation were mostly absent, including a lack of frontal cyclones in late spring followed by suppressed deep convection in summer owing to large-scale subsidence and atmospheric stabilization. Seasonal forecasts did not predict the summer 2012 central Great Plains drought development, which therefore arrived without early warning. Climate simulations and empirical analysis suggest that ocean surface temperatures together with changes in greenhouse gases did not induce a substantial reduction in summertime precipitation over the central Great Plains during 2012. Yet, diagnosis of the retrospective climate simulations also reveals a regime shift toward warmer and drier summertime Great Plains conditions during the recent decade, most probably due to natural decadal variability. As a consequence, the probability for severe summer Great Plains drought may have increased in the last decade compared to the 1980s and 1990s, and the so-called tail-risk for severe drought may have been heightened in summer 2012. Such an extreme drought event was nonetheless still found to be a rare occurrence within the spread of 2012 climate model simulations. Implications of this study's findings for U.S. seasonal drought forecasting are discussed.

Forecasts↗
NASA NTRS2012

JPL's Role in Advancing Earth System Science to Meet the Challenges of Climate and Environmental Change

Objective 2.1.1: Improve understanding of and improve the predictive capability for changes in the ozone layer, climate forcing, and air quality associated with changes in atmospheric composition. Objective 2.1.2: Enable improved predictive capability for weather and extreme weather events. Objective 2.1.3: Quantify, understand, and predict changes in Earth s ecosystems and biogeochemical cycles, including the global carbon cycle, land cover, and biodiversity. Objective 2.1.4: Quantify the key reservoirs and fluxes in the global water cycle and assess water cycle change and water quality. Objective 2.1.5: Improve understanding of the roles of the ocean, atmosphere, land and ice in the climate system and improve predictive capability for its future evolution. Objective 2.1.6: Characterize the dynamics of Earth s surface and interior and form the scientific basis for the assessment and mitigation of natural hazards and response to rare and extreme events. Objective 2.1.7: Enable the broad use of Earth system science observations and results in decision-making activities for societal benefits.

Earth observations↗
NASA NTRS1973

Atmospheric pressure variation and the climate of Mars

If Mars has permanent CO2 polar caps, atmospheric heat transport may cause the atmospheric pressure to be extremely sensitive to variations of solar heating at the poles. This could happen because atmospheric heating depends on density, which depends strongly on the polar temperature through the vapor pressure relation. A simple climatological model is used to study the question.

Gierasch, P. J.↗