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At least 325 records · Page 18

naturf: a package for generating urban parameters for numerical weather modeling

The Neighborhood Adaptive Tissues for Urban Resilience Futures tool (NATURF) is a Python workflow that generates files readable by the Weather Research and Forecasting (WRF) model. NATURF uses geopandas and hamilton to calculate 132 building parameters from shapefiles with building footprint and height information. These parameters can be collected and used in many formats, and the primary output is a binary file configured for input to WRF. This workflow is a flexible adaptation of the National/World Urban Database and Access Portal Tool (NUDAPT/WUDAPT) that can be used with any study area at any spatial resolution. The climate modeling community and urban planners can identify the effects of building/neighborhood morphology on the microclimate using the urban parameters and WRF-readable files produced by NATURF. More information on the urban parameters calculated can be found in the documentation.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

Towards an open model intercomparison platform for integrated assessment models scenarios

The majority of scenarios in the IPCC database are generated by integrated assessment models (IAMs) and come from model intercomparison projects. However, the way in which the current model intercomparison projects are organized is not open to all IAM teams worldwide. Here we propose a transparent and inclusive platform that is open to anyone with an IAM regarding protocols development, scenario submissions and results evaluation. We discuss the challenges of this approach, particularly human resources and financial support. Here, we identify diversity in the level of model capability and quality of model output as possibly critical issues. Despite such challenges, the IAM community and its scientific activities can improve and benefit from the proposed platform, ultimately contributing to better climate policymaking.

IAM↗

Effects of Forcing Differences and Initial Conditions on Inter-Model Agreement in the VolMIP Volc-Pinatubo-Full Experiment

This paper provides initial results from a multi-model ensemble analysis based on the volc-pinatubo-full experiment performed within the Model Intercomparison Project on the climatic response to Volcanic forcing (VolMIP) as part of the sixth phase of the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project (CMIP6). The volc-pinatubo-full experiment is based on an ensemble of volcanic forcing-only climate simulations with the same volcanic aerosol dataset across the participating models (the 1991–1993 Pinatubo period from the CMIP6-GloSSAC dataset). The simulations are conducted within an idealized experimental design where initial states are sampled consistently across models from the CMIP6-piControl simulation providing unperturbed preindustrial background conditions. The multi-model ensemble includes output from an initial set of six participating Earth system models (CanESM5, GISS-E2.1-G, IPSL-CM6A-LR, MIROC-E2SL, MPI-ESM1.2-LR and UKESM1). The results show overall good agreement between the different models on the global and hemispheric scales concerning the surface climate responses, thus demonstrating the overall effectiveness of VolMIP's experimental design. However, small yet significant inter-model discrepancies are found in radiative fluxes, especially in the tropics, that preliminary analyses link with minor differences in forcing implementation; model physics, notably aerosol–radiation interactions; the simulation and sampling of El Niño–Southern Oscillation (ENSO); and, possibly, the simulation of climate feedbacks operating in the tropics. We discuss the volc-pinatubo-full protocol and highlight the advantages of volcanic forcing experiments defined within a carefully designed protocol with respect to emerging modelling approaches based on large ensemble transient simulations. We identify how the VolMIP strategy could be improved in future phases of the initiative to ensure a cleaner sampling protocol with greater focus on the evolving state of ENSO in the pre-eruption period.

metadata↗

Mitigating Impact Through Community-Engaged Flood Modeling

Urban pluvial flooding poses a growing threat to the city of Baltimore, driven by heavy rainfall, increased impervious area, and aging infrastructure. Adapting to the risks posed by pluvial flooding is critical for building greater climate resiliency in Baltimore's Inner Harbor Watershed. This study addresses these challenges through community-informed decision analysis, which uses hydrologic modeling and optimization tools to identify robust flooding adaptation pathways. We will collaborate with community partners to identify key concerns and objectives regarding flooding. These concerns have been purposefully built in to a combined surface-subsurface dynamic flow simulation model. Model outputs are used to identify flooding locations within the Inner Harbor, and to test adaptation methods. Machine learning will be used search for solutions which meet diverse environmental, financial, and social goals, and solution performance will be examined under a wide range of potential future climatic conditions and integrated with an adaptive planning approach. This novel set of adaptation pathways will enhance the City's capacity to respond to evolving pluvial flood risk.

climate resilience↗

Characteristics of Tropical Cyclones in High-resolution Models in the Present Climate

The global characteristics of tropical cyclones (TCs) simulated by several climate models are analyzed and compared with observations. The global climate models were forced by the same sea surface temperature (SST) fields in two types of experiments, using climatological SST and interannually varying SST. TC tracks and intensities are derived from each model's output fields by the group who ran that model, using their own preferred tracking scheme; the study considers the combination of model and tracking scheme as a single modeling system, and compares the properties derived from the different systems. Overall, the observed geographic distribution of global TC frequency was reasonably well reproduced. As expected, with the exception of one model, intensities of the simulated TC were lower than in observations, to a degree that varies considerably across models.

Tropical Cyclones↗

Synchronization of Alternative Models in a Supermodel and the Learning of Critical Behavior

“Supermodeling” climate by allowing different models to assimilate data from one another in run time has been shown to give results superior to those of any one model and superior to any weighted average of model outputs. The only free parameters, connection strengths between corresponding variables in each pair of models, are determined using some form of machine learning. It is demonstrated that supermodeling succeeds because near critical states, interscale interactions are important but unresolved processes cannot be effectively represented diagnostically in any single parameterization scheme. In two examples, a pair of toy quasigeostrophic (QG) channel models of the midlatitudes and a pair of ECHAM5 models of the tropical Pacific atmosphere with a common ocean, supermodels dynamically combine parameterization schemes so as to capture criticality, associated critical structures, and the supporting scale interactions. The QG supermodeling scheme extends a previous configuration in which two such models synchronize with intermodel connections only between medium-scale components of the flow; here the connections are trained against a third “real” model. Intermittent blocking patterns characterize the critical behavior thus obtained, even where such patterns are missing in the constituent models. In the ECHAM-based climate supermodel, the corresponding critical structure is the single ITCZ pattern, a pattern that occurs in neither of the constituent models. In conclusion, for supermodels of both types, power spectra indicate enhanced interscale interactions in frequency or energy ranges of physical interest, in agreement with observed data, and supporting a generalized form of the self-organized criticality hypothesis.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

CMIP7 Data Request: atmosphere priorities and opportunities

This paper presents a comprehensive overview of the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 7 (CMIP7) request for data unlocking key research avenues in atmospheric science and provides justification for the resources needed to produce this data. Topics within the CMIP7 Atmosphere Theme centre around processes and feedbacks in atmospheric science such as clouds, aerosols and atmospheric chemistry, atmospheric circulation, temperature variability and extremes, radiative forcings, and Earth system model evaluation. These topics are summarised in this paper as scientific “opportunities” which will be realised through CMIP7 experiments and Earth system model outputs. These opportunities were submitted by a thematic group of atmospheric science community representatives combined with an extended consultation process. The production of these variables will close key gaps and uncertainties identified during previous rounds of CMIP, and will be broadly used by scientific, policy, governmental, industry, and other communities that rely on climate model projections for research and decision making, including supporting the 7th Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change Assessment Report (AR7). As an author group, we also reflect on the process used to collate this data request and make recommendations to future CMIP governance on implementing a consultation on this scale in the future.

58 GEOSCIENCES↗

WRF-simulated low-level jets over Iowa: characterization and sensitivity studies

Abstract. Output from 6 months of high-resolution simulations with the Weather Research and Forecasting (WRF) model are analyzed to characterize local low-level jets (LLJs) over Iowa for winter and spring in the contemporary climate. Low-level jets affect rotor plane aerodynamic loading, turbine structural loading and turbine performance, and thus accurate characterization and identification are pertinent. Analyses using a detection algorithm wherein the wind speed above and below the jet maximum must be below 80 % of the jet wind speed within a vertical window of approximately 20–530 m a.g.l. (above ground level) indicate the presence of an LLJ in at least one of the 14 700 4 km×4 km grid cells over Iowa on 98 % of nights. Nocturnal LLJs are most frequently associated with stable stratification and low turbulent kinetic energy (TKE) and hence are more frequent during the winter months. The spatiotemporal mean LLJ maximum (jet core) wind speed is 9.55 m s−1, and the mean height is 182 m. Locations of high LLJ frequency and duration across the state are seasonally varying, with a mean duration of 3.5 h. The highest frequency occurs in the topographically complex northwest of the state in winter and in the flatter northeast of the state in spring. Sensitivity of LLJ characteristics to the (i) LLJ definition and (ii) vertical resolution at which the WRF output is sampled is examined. LLJ definitions commonly used in the literature are considered in the first sensitivity analysis. These sensitivity analyses indicate that LLJ characteristics are highly variable with definition. Use of different definitions identifies both different frequencies of LLJs and different LLJ events. Further, when the model output is down-sampled to lower vertical resolution, the mean jet core wind speed height decreases, but spatial distributions of regions of high frequency and duration are conserved. Implementation of a polynomial interpolation to extrapolate down-sampled output to full-resolution results in reduced sensitivity of LLJ characteristics to down-sampling.

17 WIND ENERGY↗

Ten Years of Cloud Properties from MODIS: Global Statistics and Use in Climate Model Evaluation

The NASA Moderate Resolution Imaging Spectroradiometer (MODIS), launched onboard the Terra and Aqua spacecrafts, began Earth observations on February 24, 2000 and June 24,2002, respectively. Among the algorithms developed and applied to this sensor, a suite of cloud products includes cloud masking/detection, cloud-top properties (temperature, pressure), and optical properties (optical thickness, effective particle radius, water path, and thermodynamic phase). All cloud algorithms underwent numerous changes and enhancements between for the latest Collection 5 production version; this process continues with the current Collection 6 development. We will show example MODIS Collection 5 cloud climatologies derived from global spatial . and temporal aggregations provided in the archived gridded Level-3 MODIS atmosphere team product (product names MOD08 and MYD08 for MODIS Terra and Aqua, respectively). Data sets in this Level-3 product include scalar statistics as well as 1- and 2-D histograms of many cloud properties, allowing for higher order information and correlation studies. In addition to these statistics, we will show trends and statistical significance in annual and seasonal means for a variety of the MODIS cloud properties, as well as the time required for detection given assumed trends. To assist in climate model evaluation, we have developed a MODIS cloud simulator with an accompanying netCDF file containing subsetted monthly Level-3 statistical data sets that correspond to the simulator output. Correlations of cloud properties with ENSO offer the potential to evaluate model cloud sensitivity; initial results will be discussed.

Platnick, Steven E.↗

File Specification for the 7-km GEOS-5 Nature Run, Ganymed Release Non-Hydrostatic 7-km Global Mesoscale Simulation

This document describes the gridded output files produced by a two-year global, non-hydrostatic mesoscale simulation for the period 2005-2006 produced with the non-hydrostatic version of GEOS-5 Atmospheric Global Climate Model (AGCM). In addition to standard meteorological parameters (wind, temperature, moisture, surface pressure), this simulation includes 15 aerosol tracers (dust, sea-salt, sulfate, black and organic carbon), O3, CO and CO2. This model simulation is driven by prescribed sea-surface temperature and sea-ice, daily volcanic and biomass burning emissions, as well as high-resolution inventories of anthropogenic sources. A description of the GEOS-5 model configuration used for this simulation can be found in Putman et al. (2014). The simulation is performed at a horizontal resolution of 7 km using a cubed-sphere horizontal grid with 72 vertical levels, extending up to to 0.01 hPa (approximately 80 km). For user convenience, all data products are generated on two logically rectangular longitude-latitude grids: a full-resolution 0.0625 deg grid that approximately matches the native cubed-sphere resolution, and another 0.5 deg reduced-resolution grid. The majority of the full-resolution data products are instantaneous with some fields being time-averaged. The reduced-resolution datasets are mostly time-averaged, with some fields being instantaneous. Hourly data intervals are used for the reduced-resolution datasets, while 30-minute intervals are used for the full-resolution products. All full-resolution output is on the model's native 72-layer hybrid sigma-pressure vertical grid, while the reduced-resolution output is given on native vertical levels and on 48 pressure surfaces extending up to 0.02 hPa. Section 4 presents additional details on horizontal and vertical grids. Information of the model surface representation can be found in Appendix B. The GEOS-5 product is organized into file collections that are described in detail in Appendix C. Additional details about variables listed in this file specification can be found in a separate document, the GEOS-5 File Specification Variable Definition Glossary. Documentation about the current access methods for products described in this document can be found on the GEOS-5 Nature Run portal: http://gmao.gsfc.nasa.gov/projects/G5NR. Information on the scientific quality of this simulation will appear in a forthcoming NASA Technical Report Series on Global Modeling and Data Assimilation to be available from http://gmao.gsfc.nasa.gov/pubs/tm/.

GEOS-5↗

Robust global detection of forced changes in mean and extreme precipitation despite observational disagreement on the magnitude of change

Detection and attribution (D&A) of forced precipitation change are challenging due to internal variability, limited spatial, and temporal coverage of observational records and model uncertainty. These factors result in a low signal-to-noise ratio of potential regional and even global trends. Here, we use a statistical method – ridge regression – to create physically interpretable fingerprints for the detection of forced changes in mean and extreme precipitation with a high signal-to-noise ratio. The fingerprints are constructed using Coupled Model Intercomparison Project phase 6 (CMIP6) multi-model output masked to match coverage of three gridded precipitation observational datasets – GHCNDEX, HadEX3, and GPCC – and are then applied to these observational datasets to assess the degree of forced change detectable in the real-world climate in the period 1951–2020. We show that the signature of forced change is detected in all three observational datasets for global metrics of mean and extreme precipitation. Forced changes are still detectable from changes in the spatial patterns of precipitation even if the global mean trend is removed from the data. This shows the detection of forced change in mean and extreme precipitation beyond a global mean trend is robust and increases confidence in the detection method's power as well as in climate models' ability to capture the relevant processes that contribute to large-scale patterns of change. We also find, however, that detectability depends on the observational dataset used. Not only coverage differences but also observational uncertainty contribute to dataset disagreement, exemplified by the times of emergence of forced change from internal variability ranging from 1998 to 2004 among datasets. Furthermore, different choices for the period over which the forced trend is computed result in different levels of agreement between observations and model projections. These sensitivities may explain apparent contradictions in recent studies on whether models under- or overestimate the observed forced increase in mean and extreme precipitation. Lastly, the detection fingerprints are found to rely primarily on the signal in the extratropical Northern Hemisphere, which is at least partly due to observational coverage but potentially also due to the presence of a more robust signal in the Northern Hemisphere in general.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

Metrics tool for for evaluating atmospheric rivers in climate data

The metric tool code is designed for evaluating atmospheric rivers (AR) in climate models and reanalysis. It is python based, with built in metrics of AR frequency, AR precipitation, AR peak day, AR characteristics (width, length, area, latitude and longitude), and output of diagnostic plots. Is there

Dong, Bo↗

Model Inputs, Outputs, and Scripts associated with: “Spatial microbial respiration variations in the hyporheic zones within the Columbia River Basin”

This data package is associated with the publication “Spatial microbial respiration variations in the hyporheic zones within the Columbia River Basin” published in the Journal of Geophysical Research: Biogeosciences (Son et al. 2022) available at doi: 10.1029/2021JG006654. This data package includes the key model inputs/outputs of the river corridor model for the Columbia River Basin (CRB) and the model source codes, which were used in the manuscript. The model is a carbon-nitrogen-coupled river corridor model (RCM), and the model is used to quantify hyporheic zone (HZ) aerobic and anaerobic respiration at the NHDPLUS stream reach scales. The RCM used in this study combines empirical substrate models derived from observations and three microbially driven reactions to compute respiration of the HZ for each National Hydrography Dataset (NHD) reach within the CRB. The reactions in HZs of each NHD reach include anaerobic respiration and two-step anaerobic respiration via denitrification. Our HZ respiration estimates are limited to the lotic (or flowing) stream/river systems, and do not account for the respiration process in water column. Note that the RCM only simulates the HZ’s contribution to the dissolved carbon dioxide (CO2) concentrations in the streams, and the CO2 emissions to the atmosphere are not modelled. The model computes at hourly timesteps because of the fast reaction rates. The key input data of the model are exchange flux, residence time, and stream solute (dissolved organic carbon (DOC), dissolved oxygen (DO), and nitrate concentrations). These inputs are constant over time and represent long-term averaged values.This modeling framework successfully quantified HZ respiration components over multiple scales. It revealed key mechanisms driving the spatial variation of HZ aerobic and anaerobic respiration in reaches with varying hydrologic and substrate conditions. Thus, this modeling study offers a testing hypothesis in different river system (e.g., climate and biomes) for the HZ respiration processes, and can be used as a sampling design tool for large-scale HZ experimental studies.This dataset contains five folders: (1) model_inputs, (2) model_outputs, (3) Rscripts, (4) figures, and (5) model_codes. It also contains a readme, file level metadata (FLMD), and data dictionary (dd). Please see the FLMD for a list of all the files contained in this data package and descriptions for each. The model_inputs folder contains the model inputs used to drive the model simulations. The model_outputs folder contains key model output files from the river corridor model. The Rscripts folder contains the Rscripts for pre- and post- processing model results. The figures folder contains the raw figures associated with the manuscript. The model_codes folder includes key model source codes/input files. All files are .jpg, .jpeg, .out, .e, .od, .dat, .sub, .F90, .0, .R, .sbx, .cpg, .sbn, .shx, .shp, .dbf, .prj, .tfw, .tif, .xml, .pdf, or .csv.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

Improved Mars Upper Atmosphere Climatology

The detailed characterization of the Mars upper atmosphere is important for future Mars aerobraking activities. Solar cycle, seasonal, and dust trends (climate) as well as planetary wave activity (weather) are crucial to quantify in order to improve our ability to reasonably depict the state of the Mars upper atmosphere over time. To date, our best information is found in the Mars Global Surveyor (MGS) Accelerometer (ACC) database collected during Phase 1 (Ls = 184 - 300; F10.7 = 70 - 90) and Phase 2 (Ls = 30 - 90; F10.7 = 90 - 150) of aerobraking. This database (100 - 170 km) consists of thermospheric densities, temperatures, and scale heights, providing our best constraints for exercising the coupled Mars General Circulation Model (MGCM) and the Mars Thermospheric General Circulation Model (MTGCM). The Planetary Data System (PDS) contains level 0 and 2 MGS Accelerometer data, corresponding to atmospheric densities along the orbit track. Level 3 products (densities, temperatures, and scale heights at constant altitudes) are also available in the PDS. These datasets provide the primary model constraints for the new MGCM-MTGCM simulations summarized in this report. Our strategy for improving the characterization of the Mars upper atmospheres using these models has been three-fold : (a) to conduct data-model comparisons using the latest MGS data covering limited climatic and weather conditions at Mars, (b) to upgrade the 15-micron cooling and near-IR heating rates in the MGCM and MTGCM codes for ad- dressing climatic variations (solar cycle and seasonal) important in linking the lower and upper atmospheres (including migrating tides), and (c) to exercise the detailed coupled MGCM and MTGCM codes to capture and diagnose the planetary wave (migrating plus non-migrating tidal) features throughout the Mars year. Products from this new suite of MGCM-MTGCM coupled simulations are being used to improve our predictions of the structure of the Mars upper atmosphere for the upcoming MRO aerobraking exercises in 2006. A Michigan website, containing MTGCM output fields from previous climate simulations, is being expanded to include new MGCM-MTGCM simulations addressing planetary wave influences upon thermospheric aerobraking fields (densities and temperatures). In addition, similar MTGCM output fields have been supplied to the MSFC MARSGRAM - 200X empirical model, which will be used in mission operations for conducting aerobraking maneuvers.

Bougher, S. W.↗

Wichita Climate II: Quantifying and Mapping Urban Heat to Inform Equitable and Sustainable Urban Planning Initiatives in Wichita, Kansas

Wichita, Kansas is experiencing a host of climate threats, particularly extreme heat manifested through Urban Heat Islands (UHI). Heat is unevenly distributed within cities due to factors such as income inequality, historical discriminatory practices like redlining, and divestment in neighborhoods of color. This leads to less vegetation and more heat-absorbing infrastructure in specific communities. Moreover, adverse effects of heat, including heat-related morbidity and mortality, disproportionately impact populations that experience vulnerability through social inequities and structural discrimination. Heat vulnerability is a combination of the factors of heat exposure, sensitivity, and adaptive capacity, and can be harnessed to guide urban heat interventions. This DEVELOP project partnered with the City of Wichita to understand the spatial distribution and drivers of UHIs and heat vulnerability indicators. The team modeled outcomes of tree cover interventions using Landsat 8’s Thermal Infrared Sensor (TIRS) and Operational Land Imager (OLI), Landsat 9 TIRS-2 and OLI-2, and the International Space Station’s Ecosystem Spaceborne Thermal Radiometer Experiment on the International Space Station (ECOSTRESS) sensor, along with the Integrated Valuation of Ecosystem Services and Tradeoffs (InVEST) Urban Cooling model. The team also leveraged statistical analysis by implementing principal component analysis to develop a heat vulnerability index (HVI) specific to Wichita. Ultimately, the project’s outputs will inform the City of Wichita’s Climate Adaptation and Mitigation Plan, identify priority areas for heat mitigation initiatives, and be used in public-facing communications to educate communities on the impacts of urban heat.

Environmental Justice↗

Atmospheric processing and aerosol aging responsible for observed increase in absorptivity of long-range-transported smoke over the southeast Atlantic

Biomass burning aerosol (BBA) from agricultural fires in southern Africa contributes about one-third of the global carbonaceous aerosol load. These particles have strong radiative effects in the southeast Atlantic (SEA), which depend in part on the radiative contrast between the aerosol layer in the free troposphere (FT) and the underlying cloud layer. However, there is large disagreement in model estimates of aerosol-driven climate forcing due to uncertainties in the vertical distribution, optical properties, and life cycle of these particles. This study applies a novel method combining remote sensing observations with regional model outputs to investigate the aging of the BBA and its impact on the optical properties during transatlantic transport from emission sources in Africa to the SEA. Results show distinct variations in extinction Ångström exponent (EAE) and single-scattering albedo (SSA) as aerosols age. Near the source, fresh aerosols are characterized by low mean SSA (0.84) and high EAE (1.85), indicating smaller, highly absorbing particles. By isolating marine contributions from the total column during BBA transport across the SEA, our analysis reveals an initial decrease in BBA absorptivity, with mean FT SSA of 0.87 after 6–7 d, followed by increased absorptivity with mean FT SSA of 0.84 after 10 d, suggesting enhanced absorption due to chemical aging. These findings indicate that BBA becomes more absorbing during extended transport across the SEA, with implications for reducing model uncertainties. Our remote-sensing-based results agree well with previous in situ studies and offer new insights into aerosol–radiation interactions and the energy balance over the SEA.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

Early retirement of power plants in climate mitigation scenarios

International efforts to avoid dangerous climate change aim for large and rapid reductions of fossil fuel CO 2 emissions worldwide, including nearly complete decarbonization of the electric power sector. However, achieving such rapid reductions may depend on early retirement of coal- and natural gas-fired power plants. Here, we analyze future fossil fuel electricity demand in 171 energy-emissions scenarios from Integrated Assessment Models (IAMs), evaluating the implicit retirements and/or reduced operation of generating infrastructure. Although IAMs calculate retirements endogenously, the structure and methods of each model differ; we use a standard approach to infer retirements in outputs from all six major IAMs and—unlike the IAMs themselves—we begin with the age distribution and region-specific operating capacities of the existing power fleet. We find that coal-fired power plants in scenarios consistent with international climate targets (i.e. keeping global warming well-below 2 °C or 1.5 °C) retire one to three decades earlier than historically has been the case. If plants are built to meet projected fossil electricity demand and instead allowed to operate at the level and over the lifetimes they have historically, the roughly 200 Gt CO 2 of additional emissions this century would be incompatible with keeping global warming well-below 2 °C. Thus, ambitious climate mitigation scenarios entail drastic, and perhaps un-appreciated, changes in the operating and/or retirement schedules of power infrastructure.

20 FOSSIL-FUELED POWER PLANTS↗