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Search indexed NASA NTRS and DOE OSTI research on propulsion, heat transfer, battery materials and energy systems. Follow report and document links to the original sources.

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At least 325 records · Page 18
All sourcesNASA NTRSDOE OSTI
DOE OSTI2021

State changes: insights from the U.S. Long Term Ecological Research Network

Understanding the complex and unpredictable ways ecosystems are changing and predicting the state of ecosystems and the services they will provide in the future requires coordinated, long-term research. This paper is a product of a U.S. National Science Foundation funded Long Term Ecological Research (LTER)network synthesis effort that addressed anticipated changes in future populations and communities. Each LTER site described what their site would look like in50 or 100 yr based on long-term patterns and responses to global change drivers in each ecosystem. Common themes emerged and predictions were grouped into state change, connectivity, resilience, time lags, and cascading effects. Here, we report on the “state change” theme, which includes examples from the Georgia Coastal (coastal marsh), Konza Prairie (mesic grassland), Luquillo(tropical forest), Sevilleta (arid grassland), and Virginia Coastal (coastal grassland) sites. Ecological thresholds(the point at which small changes in an environmental driver can produce an abrupt and persistent state change in an ecosystem quality, property, or phenomenon) were most commonly predicted. For example, in coastal ecosystems, sea-level rise and climate change could convert salt marsh to mangroves and coastal barrier dunes to shrub thicket. Reduced fire frequency has converted grassland to shrubland in mesic prairie, whereas overgrazing combined with drought drive shrub encroachment in arid grasslands. Lastly, tropical cloud forests are susceptible to climate-induced changes in cloud base altitude leading to shifts in species distributions. Overall, these examples reveal that state change is a likely outcome of global environmental change across adverse range of ecosystems and highlight the need for long-term studies to sort out the causes and consequences of state change. The diversity of sites within the LTER network facilitates the emergence of overarching concepts about state changes as an important driver of ecosystem structure, function, services, and futures.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2025

Cloud Feedback Uncertainty in the Equatorial Pacific Across CMIP6 Models

Cloud feedback is the largest uncertainty in estimating Equilibrium Climate Sensitivity. In this study we focus on the equatorial Pacific, where CMIP6 model cloud feedback spread is notably large. Cloud radiative effects in this region are relevant for the global climate. Our findings show that models predict a consistent shift towards the ascent regime in response to El Nino-like sea surface warming. Models diverge in terms of the radiative impact due to differences in cloud characteristics in ascent and subsidence regimes. Using the observed relationship between circulation regime and cloud radiative effect, we find a reduction in the regional mean cloud feedback estimate from 0.77 to 0.22 W m -2 K -1 , though this does not substantially lessen the model spread in total feedback. Pathways to reduce this spread include: improving confidence in the regional ocean warming pattern, and using observations and models to understand cloud type and circulation interactions.

CMIP6↗
DOE OSTI2021

The biogeographic differentiation of algal microbiomes in the upper ocean from pole to pole

Eukaryotic phytoplankton are responsible for at least 20% of annual global carbon fixation. Their diversity and activity are shaped by interactions with prokaryotes as part of complex microbiomes. Although differences in their local species diversity have been estimated, we still have a limited understanding of environmental conditions responsible for compositional differences between local species communities on a large scale from pole to pole. Here, we show, based on pole-to-pole phytoplankton metatranscriptomes and microbial rDNA sequencing, that environmental differences between polar and non-polar upper oceans most strongly impact the large-scale spatial pattern of biodiversity and gene activity in algal microbiomes. The geographic differentiation of co-occurring microbes in algal microbiomes can be well explained by the latitudinal temperature gradient and associated break points in their beta diversity, with an average breakpoint at 14 °C ± 4.3, separating cold and warm upper oceans. As global warming impacts upper ocean temperatures, we project that break points of beta diversity move markedly pole-wards. Hence, abrupt regime shifts in algal microbiomes could be caused by anthropogenic climate change.

59 BASIC BIOLOGICAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2021

Enhanced interactions of Kuroshio Extension with tropical Pacific in a changing climate

Quasi-decadal climate of the Kuroshio Extension (KE) is pivotal to understanding the North Pacific coupled ocean–atmosphere dynamics and their predictability. Recent observational studies suggest that extratropical-tropical coupling between the KE and the central tropical Pacific El Niño Southern Oscillation (CP-ENSO) leads to the observed preferred decadal time-scale of Pacific climate variability. By combining reanalysis data with numerical simulations from a high-resolution climate model and a linear inverse model (LIM), we confirm that KE and CP-ENSO dynamics are linked through extratropical-tropical teleconnections. Specifically, the atmospheric response to the KE excites Meridional Modes that energize the CP-ENSO (extratropicstropics), and in turn, CP-ENSO teleconnections energize the extratropical atmospheric forcing of the KE (tropicsextratropics). However, both observations and the model show that the KE/CP-ENSO coupling is non-stationary and has intensified in recent decades after the mid-1980. Given the short length of the observational and climate model record, it is difficult to attribute this shift to anthropogenic forcing. However, using a large-ensemble of the LIM we show that the intensification in the KE/CP-ENSO coupling after the mid-1980 is significant and linked to changes in the KE atmospheric downstream response, which exhibit a stronger imprint on the subtropical winds that excite the Pacific Meridional modes and CP-ENSO.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2024

Extreme elevational migration spurred cryptic speciation in giant hummingbirds

The ecoevolutionary drivers of species niche expansion or contraction are critical for biodiversity but challenging to infer. Niche expansion may be promoted by local adaptation or constrained by physiological performance trade-offs. For birds, evolutionary shifts in migratory behavior permit the broadening of the climatic niche by expansion into varied, seasonal environments. Broader niches can be short-lived if diversifying selection and geography promote speciation and niche subdivision across climatic gradients. To illuminate niche breadth dynamics, we can ask how “outlier” species defy constraints. Of the 363 hummingbird species, the giant hummingbird (Patagona gigas) has the broadest climatic niche by a large margin. To test the roles of migratory behavior, performance trade-offs, and genetic structure in maintaining its exceptional niche breadth, we studied its movements, respiratory traits, and population genomics. Satellite and light-level geolocator tracks revealed an >8,300-km loop migration over the Central Andean Plateau. This migration included a 3-wk, ~4,100-m ascent punctuated by upward bursts and pauses, resembling the acclimatization routines of human mountain climbers, and accompanied by surging blood-hemoglobin concentrations. Extreme migration was accompanied by deep genomic divergence from high-elevation resident populations, with decisive postzygotic barriers to gene flow. The two forms occur side-by-side but differ almost imperceptibly in size, plumage, and respiratory traits. The high-elevation resident taxon is the world’s largest hummingbird, a previously undiscovered species that we describe and name here. The giant hummingbirds demonstrate evolutionary limits on niche breadth: when the ancestral niche expanded due to evolution (or loss) of an extreme migratory behavior, speciation followed.

Science & Technology - Other Topics↗
DOE OSTI2022

Soil moisture thresholds explain a shift from light-limited to water-limited sap velocity in the Central Amazon during the 2015–16 El Niño drought

Transpiration is often considered to be light- but not water-limited in humid tropical rainforests due to abundant soil water, even during the dry seasons. The record-breaking 2015–16 El Niño drought provided a unique opportunity to examine whether transpiration is constrained by water under severe lack of rainfall. We measured sap velocity, soil water content, and meteorological variables in an old-growth upland forest in the Central Amazon throughout the 2015–16 drought. We found a rapid decline in sap velocity (-38 ± 21%, mean ± SD.) and in its temporal variability (-88%) during the drought compared to the wet season. Such changes were accompanied by a marked decline in soil moisture and an increase in temperature and vapor pressure deficit. Sap velocity was largely limited by net radiation during the wet and normal dry seasons; however, it shifted to be primarily limited by soil moisture during the drought. The threshold in which sap velocity became dominated by soil moisture was at 0.33 m 3 m -3 (around -150 kPa in soil matric potential), below which sap velocity dropped steeply. Our study provides evidence for a soil water threshold on transpiration in a moist tropical forest, suggesting a shift from light limitation to water limitation under future climate characterized by increased temperature and an increased frequency, intensity, duration and extent of extreme drought events.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2023

Upland forest retreat lags behind sea‐level rise in the mid‐Atlantic coast

Abstract Ghost forests consisting of dead trees adjacent to marshes are striking indicators of climate change, and marsh migration into retreating coastal forests is a primary mechanism for marsh survival in the face of global sea‐level rise. Models of coastal transgression typically assume inundation of a static topography and instantaneous conversion of forest to marsh with rising seas. In contrast, here we use four decades of satellite observations to show that many low‐elevation forests along the US mid‐Atlantic coast have survived despite undergoing relative sea‐level rise rates (RSLRR) that are among the fastest on Earth. Lateral forest retreat rates were strongly mediated by topography and seawater salinity, but not directly explained by spatial variability in RSLRR, climate, or disturbance. The elevation of coastal tree lines shifted upslope at rates correlated with, but far less than, contemporary RSLRR. Together, these findings suggest a multi‐decadal lag between RSLRR and land conversion that implies coastal ecosystem resistance. Predictions based on instantaneous conversion of uplands to wetlands may therefore overestimate future land conversion in ways that challenge the timing of greenhouse gas fluxes and marsh creation, but also imply that the full effects of historical sea‐level rise have yet to be realized.

Biodiversity & Conservation↗
DOE OSTI2020

Biogeochemical Processes Across Aquatic Interfaces

The aquatic interfaces exposing terrestrial soils to oxic-anoxic regime shifts represent biogeochemical “hotspots” that are extremely sensitive to climate and environmental change. However, processes and interaction across theses aquatic interfaces are poorly understood and underrepresented in current Earth system models. In this project, we aim to develop predictive understanding of the feedbacks between microbial systems and geochemical environments that determine emergent ecosystem behaviors and resilience in response to disturbances. We use experimental, mechanistic modeling and meta-analysis tools to elucidate interactions among soil, water, geomorphology and microbiology that regulate the molecular transformations and fluxes of carbon, nutrients, and redox-sensitive compounds across aquatic interfaces.

58 GEOSCIENCES↗
NASA NTRS2018

Decadal Seasonal Shifts of Precipitation and Temperature in TRMM and AIRS Data

We present results from an analysis of seasonal phase shifts in the global precipitation and surface temperatures. We use data from the TRMM (Tropical Rainfall Measuring Mission) Multi-satellite Precipitation Algorithm (TMPA), and the Atmospheric Infrared Sounder (AIRS) on Aqua satellite, all hosted at NASA Goddard Earth Science Data and Information Services Center (GES DISC). We explore the information content and data usability by first aggregating daily grids from the entire records of both missions to pentad (5-day) series which are then processed using Singular Value Decomposition approach. A strength of this approach is the normalized principal components that can then be easily converted from real to complex time series. Thus, we can separate the most informative, the seasonal, components and analyze unambiguously for potential seasonal phase drifts. TMPA and AIRS records represent correspondingly 20 and 15 years of data, which allows us to run simple “phase learning†from the first 5 years of records and use it as reference. The most recent 5 years are then phase-compared with the reference. We demonstrate that the seasonal phase of global precipitation and surface temperatures has been stable in the past two decades. However, a small global trend of delayed precipitation, and earlier arrival of surface temperatures seasons, are detectable at 95% confidence level. Larger phase shifts are detectable at regional level, in regions recognizable from the Eigen vectors to having strong seasonal patterns. For instance, in Central North America, including the North American Monsoon region, confident phase shifts of 1-2 days per decade are detected at 95% confidence level. While seemingly symbolic, these shifts are indicative of larger changes in the Earth Climate System. We thus also demonstrate a potential usability scenario of Earth Science Data Records curated at the NASA GES DISC in partnership with Earth Science Missions.

surface temperatures↗
NASA NTRS2022

Diagnosing Challenges and Setting Priorities for Sustainable Water Resource Management Under Climate Change

Managing transboundary river basins requires balancing tradeoffs of sustainable water use and coping with climate uncertainty. We demonstrate an integrated approach to exploring these issues through the lens of a social-ecological system, combining remote and in-situ earth observations, hydrologic and climate models, and social surveys. Specifically, we examine how climate change and dam development could impact the Se Kong, Se San and Sre Pok rivers in the Mekong region. We find that climate change will lead to increased precipitation, necessitating a shift in dam operations, from maintaining low flows to reducing flood hazards. We also find that existing water governance systems in Laos, Vietnam, and Cambodia are ill-prepared to address the problem. We conclude that the solution space for addressing these complex issues will be highly constrained unless major deficiencies in transboundary water governance, strategic planning, financial capacity, information sharing, and law enforcement are remedied in the next decades.

Ibrahim Nourein Mohammed↗
DOE OSTI2026

Nutrient limitation shapes functional traits of mycorrhizal fungi and phosphorus-cycling bacteria across an elevation gradient

In nutrient-limited high-elevation ecosystems, plants rely on arbuscular mycorrhizal (AM) fungi to provide mineral phosphorus (P) in the form of phosphate (PO43-). AM fungi gather these nutrients from phosphorus-cycling bacteria (PCBs) that can mineralize PO43- from organic matter and solubilize mineral-bound P. How climate, soil factors, and nutrient limitation influence AM fungi and PCB assembly remains unclear. We collected soil from montane meadows across a 1,000-m elevation gradient on three replicate mountainsides and analyzed AM fungal marker genes, P-cycling genes from shotgun metagenomes, and edaphic measurements. High-elevation soils had nearly 50-fold less soil PO₄³⁻ and 60% more AM fungal hyphae than low-elevation soils. AM fungal turnover was linked to changes in pH, organic carbon, and PO₄³-. The composition of 198 P-cycling genes was influenced by the AM fungal community structure. Drivers of individual PCB functional genes, including pH and organic carbon, varied with gene phylogeny. We found a trade-off in P-cycling strategies across elevation: P-rich, low-elevation soils supported root-colonizing AM fungi and organic P-mineralizing bacteria. P-poor, high-elevation soils were dominated by stress-tolerant AM fungi and mineral P-solubilizing bacteria. Our results suggest that AM fungi and PCB community turnover across elevation are both shaped by pH, organic carbon, and P availability. With continued climate warming, the structure and function of mountaintop ecosystems might shift to resemble lower elevations, disrupting long-established and specialized microbial assemblages, with consequences for P-cycling dynamics and the total P available to plant communities.IMPORTANCEPhosphorus (P) limits plant productivity in high-elevation ecosystems, yet the microbial networks that mobilize P, including arbuscular mycorrhizal (AM) fungi and phosphorus-cycling bacteria (PCBs), remain under-characterized in these nutrient-poor soils. We show that across a 10,00-m elevation gradient, AM fungi and P-cycling gene assemblages shift predictably with pH, organic carbon, and phosphate availability. Higher elevations, with less available P, select for stress-tolerant AM fungal taxa and PCB strategies geared toward mineral solubilization, while low-elevation sites favor root colonization by AM fungi and organic P mineralization. These results suggest that nutrient limitation can constrain microbial community assembly in consistent ways across landscapes. High mountain soils are low in P and rely on a network of underground AM fungi and PCB to deliver nutrients to plants. This study shows how those underground relationships reorganize with elevation and how climate change could collapse long-standing microbial strategies by pushing high-elevation ecosystems toward lowland conditions. As soils warm and dry, the microbial scaffolding that supports alpine plant life may become increasingly unstable.

arbuscular mycorrhizal fungi↗
DOE OSTI2025

An analysis of Potential Benefits of Adding Diurnal Thermal Storage in Geothermal Heat Pump Systems

Geothermal heat pumps (GHP) are highly efficient for space heating and cooling, utilizing the subsurface of the ground as seasonal energy storage through borehole heat exchangers (i.e., heat stored in summer is used to provide heating in winter, and cold stored in winter is used to provide cooling in summer). On the other hand, diurnal thermal energy storage can actively be charged and discharged for load shifting. Conventional thermal energy storage uses tanks filled with thermal storage media (such as phase change materials) and heat exchangers. It occupies building floor space or land areas outside the building, which may not be available especially in residential buildings. This paper will introduce a novel configuration that can utilize existing GHP system for both diurnal and seasonal thermal storage. This system can actively charge the ground on daily basis by injecting heat or cold in borehole heat exchangers. A simulation model was created for the novel configuration. Computer simulations were conducted using the model for the new GHP system serving a typical single-family house in three U.S. cities representing hot, warm, and cold climates. Based on simulation results, the potential benefits of load shifting and downsize of the expensive ground heat exchangers used by the GHP system were assessed.

Anees, Fady [ORNL]↗
DOE OSTI2024

Expansion of high-latitude deciduous forests driven by interactions between climate warming and fire: Modeling Archive

This Modeling Archive is in support of an NGEE Arctic publication. More information in the related references. The dataset is a model (ecosys) output used in a study that examined the potential future shifts in high-latitude vegetation types (PFTs) driven by changes in 21st century climate and fire. The study highlights the importance of mechanistically representing differences in plant functional traits on current and possible 21st century trajectories of Alaskan PFTs. This dataset package includes 13 files in pdf, csv, and nc formats.The Next-Generation Ecosystem Experiments: Arctic (NGEE Arctic), was a research effort to reduce uncertainty in Earth System Models by developing a predictive understanding of carbon-rich Arctic ecosystems and feedbacks to climate. NGEE Arctic was supported by the Department of Energy's Office of Biological and Environmental Research.The NGEE Arctic project had two field research sites: 1) located within the Arctic polygonal tundra coastal region on the Barrow Environmental Observatory (BEO) and the North Slope near Utqiagvik (Barrow), Alaska and 2) multiple areas on the discontinuous permafrost region of the Seward Peninsula north of Nome, Alaska.Through observations, experiments, and synthesis with existing datasets, NGEE Arctic provided an enhanced knowledge base for multi-scale modeling and contributed to improved process representation at global pan-Arctic scales within the Department of Energy's Earth system Model (the Energy Exascale Earth System Model, or E3SM), and specifically within the E3SM Land Model component (ELM).

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2024

Robust increase in South Asian monsoon rainfall under warming driven by extratropical clouds and ocean

The responses of South Asian Monsoon (SAM) circulation under global warming are known to be highly uncertain, leading to the wide spread of SAM rainfall projections among models. Here, we show that the uncertain SAM circulation in Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 6 models consists of two robust components that partly offset each other: a weakening component linked to a global thermodynamic constraint and a northward shift component understood through a regional 2D energetic perspective. We further attribute the robust northward shift of SAM circulation to positive cloud feedback over the Eurasia Continent and heat uptake in the Southern Ocean. A set of climate model simulations supports the finding that SAM rainfall increase is primarily due to the northward shift of circulation driven by extratropical processes. This energetic perspective opens new avenues for predicting monsoon rainfall by connecting circulation changes to radiative forcing, feedbacks, and ocean heat uptake.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2022

Reimagine fire science for the anthropocene

Fire is an integral component of ecosystems globally and a tool that humans have harnessed for millennia. Altered fire regimes are a fundamental cause and consequence of global change, impacting people and the biophysical systems on which they depend. As part of the newly emerging Anthropocene, marked by human-caused climate change and radical changes to ecosystems, fire danger is increasing, and fires are having increasingly devastating impacts on human health, infrastructure, and ecosystem services. Increasing fire danger is a vexing problem that requires deep transdisciplinary, trans-sector, and inclusive partnerships to address. Here, we outline barriers and opportunities in the next generation of fire science and provide guidance for investment in future research. We synthesize insights needed to better address the long-standing challenges of innovation across disciplines to (i) promote coordinated research efforts; (ii) embrace different ways of knowing and knowledge generation; (iii) promote exploration of fundamental science; (iv) capitalize on the “firehose” of data for societal benefit; and (v) integrate human and natural systems into models across multiple scales. Fire science is thus at a critical transitional moment. We need to shift from observation and modeled representations of varying components of climate, people, vegetation, and fire to more integrative and predictive approaches that support pathways toward mitigating and adapting to our increasingly flammable world, including the utilization of fire for human safety and benefit. Only through overcoming institutional silos and accessing knowledge across diverse communities can we effectively undertake research that improves outcomes in our more fiery future.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2025

Equity-Centered Engagement Through Climate Resilience Policy in Massachusetts

Resilience efforts tend to reinforce injustices. Communities who experience disproportionate climate impacts are often excluded from resilience planning, and those plans do not typically address root causes of social vulnerability. More transformational approaches to resilience would shift decision-making power into communities and affect how people survive and thrive in a climate changing world. The Massachusetts Municipal Vulnerability Preparedness (MVP) 2.0 program is an attempt to change the status quo in resilience planning by bringing new voices into decision-making power, recognizing their labor, addressing root causes of vulnerability, and investing in social infrastructure. It aims to build capacity for equity-focused community engagement within teams of municipal staff and community liaisons, and ultimately build community cohesion. My mixed methods research investigates implementation of this state grant program in several Massachusetts towns. I am using document review, participant observation, and interviews to understand the MVP 2.0 process as written, how different municipalities navigate it, and how individuals make sense of their experiences in it. I seek to understand how those experiences explain relationships between engagement approaches, mediating factors, and process outcomes. I am interested in the conditions that allow for community empowerment and how a model like MVP 2.0 can shift conditions that hold systems in place. In a practical sense, my empirical results will help municipalities reflect on their work during MVP 2.0 and plan for future community engagement. They may be informative for designing future iterations of the MVP program and for other municipalities, offices of community engagement, and practitioners. The findings will also contribute to the participation, resilience, and climate justice literatures, by adding perspectives on equity-centered resilience and community engagement approaches in smaller towns and rural settings.

Callaham, Shannon↗
NASA NTRS2012

Tree Density and Species Decline in the African Sahel Attributable to Climate

Increased aridity and human population have reduced tree cover in parts of the African Sahel and degraded resources for local people. Yet, tree cover trends and the relative importance of climate and population remain unresolved. From field measurements, aerial photos, and Ikonos satellite images, we detected significant 1954-2002 tree density declines in the western Sahel of 18 +/- 14% (P = 0.014, n = 204) and 17 +/- 13% (P = 0.0009, n = 187). From field observations, we detected a significant 1960-2000 species richness decline of 21 +/- 11% (P = 0.0028, n = 14) across the Sahel and a southward shift of the Sahel, Sudan, and Guinea zones. Multivariate analyses of climate, soil, and population showed that temperature most significantly (P < 0.001) explained tree cover changes. Multivariate and bivariate tests and field observations indicated the dominance of temperature and precipitation, supporting attribution of tree cover changes to climate variability. Climate change forcing of Sahel climate variability, particularly the significant (P < 0.05) 1901-2002 temperature increases and precipitation decreases in the research areas, connects Sahel tree cover changes to global climate change. This suggests roles for global action and local adaptation to address ecological change in the Sahel.

tree density declines↗
DOE OSTI2021

Data from: "Warming and provenance limit tree recruitment across and beyond the elevation range of subalpine forest"

This data package contains data used to support conclusions drawn in “Warming and provenance limit tree recruitment across and beyond the elevation range of subalpine forest”, by Kueppers et al. 2017. Data were collected in field sites within the Alpine Treeline Warming Experiment (ATWE), located on Niwot Ridge, on the eastern slope of the Colorado Rocky Mountains, USA. Files containing geospatial data are also included, to provide additional locational context.There are four document formats associated with this archive: three comma-separated values (.csv) files, three Microsoft Excel (.xlsx) files, one .pdf data user’s guide, four keyhole markup language (.kml) files, and a compressed folder containing seven ESRI shapefiles (.shp). The .csv files can be opened using any simple text-editor software, R, or Microsoft Excel. The .xlsx files can only be opened using Microsoft Excel. The .kml file can be opened by Google Earth and Google Maps, and the shapefiles can be opened with any GIS application compatible with the file type, such as ESRI’s ArcGIS, and QGIS.We provide two versions of the seedling data file: “PIEN_PIFLseedlings20150522_20150525rev12222020.csv/.xlsx” (hereafter PIEN_PIFLseedlings2015) and “PIEN_PIFLseedlings20160408rev12222020.csv/.xlsx” (hereafter PIEN_PIFLseedlings2016). PIEN_PIFLseedlings2015 contains the data we used in the paper. PIEN_PIFLseedlings2016 contains an updated version of these data that includes sampling from later years. The main differences between the two files lie in the columns titled “k[YEAR],” which describe the number of seedlings that were killed in a particular year. In PIEN_PIFLseedlings2016, there also is an additional year of data for k2015, and k2014 also has additional data input for the 2014 cohort. Additionally, in years 2010-2014, there are minor differences in the number of seedlings killed -- in as few as 0 plots (in 2011) to as many as 5 plots (in 2014) -- due to errors in data input that were rectified in later years.------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------Upslope range shifts by subalpine tree species are a widely anticipated effect of climate change. Climate niche models predict subalpine forests to expand upslope, given more suitable growing conditions for adult trees. However, these models do not take into account climates required for successful seedling recruitment and establishment, an essential element for expansion. Further, localized upper treeline populations are hypothesized to contain favorable traits for colonizing the alpine. To test these expectations and to expand our knowledge of seedling recruitment under climate change, we designed a common garden, climate-warming experiment spread across an elevation gradient at Niwot Ridge in the Colorado Rocky Mountains. We focus on two widespread Western North American species, Engelmann spruce (Picea engelmannii Parry ex. Engelm) and limber pine (Pinus flexilis James), which occur at treeline. While the former is considered a late-seral species more tolerant of shade, limber pine is a shade-intolerant pioneer species able to establish on infertile sites.Every autumn, seeds of the two species were collected from high- (3370 m–3570 m) and low-provenance (2910–3240 m) sources close to the experimental sites and sown in our plots. A subset of plots were heated and another subset watered over the summer months to offset the effects of warming. Across five years, we found that seeds originating from low elevation recruited more strongly for both species, although this provenance difference diminished by the fourth year for Engelmann spruce, likely due to small sample sizes. Despite the recruitment of low-provenance seed, warming treatments decreased recruitment at all elevations. Combining this with the likeliness and availability of lower-quality, high provenance seed moving upslope at the treeline, tree migration into the alpine may be slowed. Overall, our findings suggest that the hardier limber pine is likely to become a more significant species in subalpine forest communities in the future, while the more sensitive Engelmann spruce may experience range contraction.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗