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At least 325 records · Page 18

Wintertime East Asian Jet Stream and Its Association with the Asian-Pacific Climate

Interannual variability of the wintertime East Asian westerly jet stream and the linkage between this variability and the Asian-Pacific climate are investigated. The study emphasizes on the variability of the jet core and its association with the Asian winter monsoon, tropical convection, upper tropospheric wave patterns, and the teleconnection of the jet with other climate systems. The relationship between the jet and North Pacific sea surface temperature pattern (SST) is also explored. NCEP/NCAR reanalysis, NASA GISS surface temperature, NASA GEOS reanalysis, NOAA reconstructed SST, GPCP precipitation, and NOAA snow cover data sets are analyzed in this study. An index of the East Asian jet has been defined by the December-February means of the 200 mb zonal winds that are averaged within a box enclosing the jet maximum, which shifts only moderately from one year to another especially in the south-north direction. The jet links to a teleconnection pattern whose major climate anomalies appear over the Asian continent and western Pacific (west of the dateline). This pattern differs distinctly from the teleconnection pattern associated with El Nino/Southern Oscillation (ENSO), which causes the Pacific/North American pattern to the east of the dateline. A strong jet is accompanied clearly by an increase in the intensity of the atmospheric circulation over Asia and the Pacific. In particular, the winter monsoon strengthens over East Asia, leading to cold climate in the region, and convection intensifies over the tropical Asia-Australia sector. Changes in the jet are associated with broad-scale modification in the upper tropospheric wave patterns that leads to downstream climate anomalies over the eastern Pacific. Through this downstream influence, the East Asian jet causes climate signals in North America as well. A strong jet gives rise to warming and less snow cover in the western United States but reverse climate anomalies in the eastern part of the country, although these signals are relatively weaker than the jet-related anomalies in East Asia. There is a strong association between the East Asian jet and the North Pacific SST (NPSST). A strong jet is accompanied by a cooling in the extratropical Pacific and a warming in the tropical-subtropical Pacific. Evidence also indicates that the extratropical NPSST pattern plays a role in modulating the intensity of the jet stream. ENSO, the jet, and the NPSST are mutually interactive on certain time scales and such an interaction links closely to the climate anomalies in the Asian-Pacific-American regions.

Yang, Song↗

Evidence of Urban Precipitation Anomalies from Satellite and Ground-Based Measurements

Urbanization is one of the extreme cases of land use change. Most of world s population has moved to urban areas. Although currently only 1.2% of the land is considered urban, the spatial coverage and density of cities are expected to rapidly increase in the near future. It is estimated that by the year 2025,60% of the world s population will live in cities. Human activity in urban environments also alters weather and climate processes. However, our understanding of urbanization on the total Earth-weather-climate system is incomplete. Recent literature continues to provide evidence that anomalies in precipitation exist over and downwind of major cities. Current and future research efforts are actively seeking to verify these literature findings and understand potential cause- effect relationships. The novelty of this study is that it utilizes rainfall data from multiple satellite data sources (e.g. TRMM precipitation radar, TRMM-geosynchronous-rain gauge merged product, and SSM/I) and ground-based measurements to identify spatial anomalies and temporal trends in precipitation for cities around the world. Early results will be presented and placed within the context of weather prediction, climate assessment, and societal applications.

Shepherd, J. M.↗

Evidence of Urban Precipitation Anomalies from Satellite and Ground-Based Measurements

Urbanization is one of the extreme cases of land use change. Most of world's population has moved to urban areas. Although currently only 1.2% of the land is considered urban, the spatial coverage and density of cities are expected to rapidly increase in the near future. It is estimated that by the year 2025, 60% of the world's population will live in cities. Human activity in urban environments also alters weather and climate processes. However, our understanding of urbanization on the total Earth-weather-climate system is incomplete. Recent literature continues to provide evidence that anomalies in precipitation exist over and downwind of major cities. Current and future research efforts are actively seeking to verify these literature findings and understand potential cause-effect relationships. The novelty of this study is that it utilizes rainfall data from multiple satellite data sources (e.g. TRMM precipitation radar, TRMM-geosynchronous-rain gauge merged product, and SSM/I) and ground-based measurements to identify spatial anomalies and temporal trends in precipitation for cities around the world. Early results will be presented and placed within the context of weather prediction, climate assessment, and societal applications.

Shepherd, J. Marshall↗

Spatiotemporal Methane Emissions from Global Reservoirs

Methane (CH4) is a greenhouse gas which contributes significantly to global warming and has atmospheric concentrations which have increased considerably in the last few decades, primarily due to human-induced emissions. Natural sources such as wetlands and inland aquatic systems (i.e., reservoirs, lakes, rivers) contribute substantially to global emissions but these natural systems comprise the most uncertain components of the CH4 budget. This study addresses multiple gaps and uncertainties associated with global CH4 emissions from reservoirs and undertakes a spatial and temporal assessment of global reservoir emissions. The results from this study suggest that reservoirs occupy a global area about 300,000 km2 (comparable to the size of the country of Italy) and emit 10.1 Tg CH4 yr-1. We identify data and methodological elements of previous estimates that indicate they may overestimate these emissions. This work provides a suite of global data sets, gridded at 0.25° × 0.25°, considering reservoir surface area, spatial distribution, eco-climatic system type, and the full annual cycle of daily CH4 emissions.

Spatiotemporal↗

Climate Models

Climate models is a very broad topic, so a single volume can only offer a small sampling of relevant research activities. This volume of 14 chapters includes descriptions of a variety of modeling studies for a variety of geographic regions by an international roster of authors. The climate research community generally uses the rubric climate models to refer to organized sets of computer instructions that produce simulations of climate evolution. The code is based on physical relationships that describe the shared variability of meteorological parameters such as temperature, humidity, precipitation rate, circulation, radiation fluxes, etc. Three-dimensional climate models are integrated over time in order to compute the temporal and spatial variations of these parameters. Model domains can be global or regional and the horizontal and vertical resolutions of the computational grid vary from model to model. Considering the entire climate system requires accounting for interactions between solar insolation, atmospheric, oceanic and continental processes, the latter including land hydrology and vegetation. Model simulations may concentrate on one or more of these components, but the most sophisticated models will estimate the mutual interactions of all of these environments. Advances in computer technology have prompted investments in more complex model configurations that consider more phenomena interactions than were possible with yesterday s computers. However, not every attempt to add to the computational layers is rewarded by better model performance. Extensive research is required to test and document any advantages gained by greater sophistication in model formulation. One purpose for publishing climate model research results is to present purported advances for evaluation by the scientific community.

Druyan, Leonard M.↗

Perturbations in Stratospheric Aerosol Evolution Due to the Water-Rich Plume of the 2022 Hunga-Tonga Eruption

The January 2022 Hunga Tonga-Hunga Ha'apai (HTHH) volcanic eruption injected a relatively small amount of SO2, but significantly more water into the stratosphere than previously seen in the modern satellite record. Here we show that the large amount of water resulted in large perturbations to stratospheric aerosol evolution. Our Community Earth System Model simulation reproduces the enhanced water vapor observed by the Microwave Limb Sounder at pressure levels between 10 and 50 hPa for three months. Compared with a simulation without a water injection, this additional source of water vapor increases OH, which halves the SO2 lifetime. Subsequent coagulation creates larger sulfate particles that double the stratospheric aerosol optical depth. A seasonal forecast of volcanic plume transport in the southern hemisphere indicates this eruption will greatly enhance the aerosol surface area and water vapor near the polar vortex until at least October 2022, suggesting that there will continue to be an impact of the HTHH eruption on the climate system.

Atmospheric science↗

A scheme for parameterizing cirrus cloud ice water content in general circulation models

Clouds strongly influence th earth's energy budget. They control th amount of solar radiative energy absorbed by the climate system, partitioning the energy between the atmosphere and the earth's surface. They also control the loss of energy to space by their effect on thermal emission. Cirrus and altostratus are the most frequent cloud types, having an annual average global coverage of 35 and 40 percent, respectively. Cirrus is composed almost entirely of ice crystals and the same is frequently true of the upper portions of altostratus since they are often formed by the thickening of cirrostratus and by the spreading of the middle or upper portions of thunderstorms. Thus, since ice clouds cover such a large portion of the earth's surface, they almost certainly have an important effect on climate. With this recognition, researchers developing climate models are seeking largely unavailable methods for specifying the conditions for ice cloud formation, and quantifying the spatial distribution of ice water content, IWC, a necessary step in deriving their radiative characteristics since radiative properties are apparently related to IWC. A method is developed for specifying IWC in climate models, based on theory and measurements in cirrus during FIRE and other experiments.

Heymsfield, Andrew J.↗

Detection and Height Measurement of Tenuous Clouds and Blowing Snow in ICESat-2 ATLAS Data

Tenuous atmospheric layers, such as high, thin cirrus clouds and blowing snow over Antarctica, play an important role in the climate system, affecting energy fluxes between the Earth and the atmosphere. Our knowledge of the structure of the atmosphere is largely derived from atmospheric satellite measurements. Yet tenuous layers can be hard to detect in satellite lidar data, especially in daylight data characterized by high solar background. In this study, we introduce an approach to detect tenuous atmospheric layers in the atmospheric lidar measurements of NASA's ICESat-2. The density-dimension algorithm for ICESat-2 atmospheric data (DDA-atmos) identifies atmospheric layers while automatically adapting to different background conditions of night, twilight, and daylight data. This capability, demonstrated for tenuous clouds and blowing snow, offers a data-based solution to an important climate modeling problem. Atmospheric layer boundaries, detection confidence, and density fields resultant from the DDA-atmos are reported in ICESat-2 atmospheric data product ATL09.

Ute Herzfeld↗

Seasonal Correlations of SST, Water Vapor, and Convective Activity in Tropical Oceans: A New Hyperspectral Data Set for Climate Model Testing

The analysis of the response of the Earth Climate System to the seasonal changes of solar forcing in the tropical oceans using four years of the Atmospheric Infrared Sounder (AIRS) and Advanced Microwave Sounding Unit (AMSU) data between 2002 and 2006 gives new insight into amplitude and phase relationships between surface and tropospheric temperatures, humidity, and convective activity. The intensity of the convective activity is measured by counting deep convective clouds. The peaks of convective activity, temperature in the mid-troposphere, and water vapor in the 0 - 30 N and 0 - 30 S tropical ocean zonal means occur about two months after solstice, all leading the peak of the sea surface temperature by several weeks. Phase is key to the evaluation of feedback. The evaluation of climate models in terms of zonal and annual means and annual mean deviations from zonal means can now be supplemented by evaluating the phase of key atmospheric and surface parameters relative to solstice. The ability of climate models to reproduce the statistical flavor of the observed amplitudes and relative phases for broad zonal means should lead to increased confidence in the realism of their water vapor and cloud feedback algorithms. AIRS and AMSU were launched into a 705 km altitude polar sun-synchronous orbit on the EOS Aqua spacecraft on May 4, 2002, and have been in routine data gathering mode since September 2002.

Atmospheric Infrared Sounder↗

Seasonal Forecasting Skill for the High Mountain Asia Region in the Goddard Earth Observing System

Seasonal variability of the global hydrologic cycle directly impacts human activities, including hazard assessment and mitigation, agricultural decisions, and water resources management. This is particularly true across the High Mountain Asia (HMA) region, where availability of water resources can change depending on local seasonality of the hydrologic cycle. Forecasting the atmospheric states and surface conditions, including hydrometeorological relevant variables, at subseasonal-to-seasonal (S2S) lead times of weeks-to-months is an area of active research and development. NASA’s 15 Goddard Earth Observing System (GEOS) S2S prediction system has been developed with this research goal in mind. Here, we benchmark the forecast skill of GEOS-S2S (version 2) hydrometeorological forecasts at 1-3 month lead times in the HMA region, including a portion of the Indian Subcontinent, during the retrospective forecast period, 1981-2016. To assess forecast skill, we evaluate 2-m air temperature, total precipitation, fractional snow cover, snow water equivalent, surface soil moisture, and terrestrial water storage forecasts against the Modern-Era Retrospective analysis for Research and 20 Applications, Version 2 (MERRA-2) and independent reanalysis data, satellite observations, and data fusion products. Anomaly correlation is highest when the forecasts are evaluated against MERRA-2 and particularly in variables with long memory in the climate system, likely due to similar initial conditions and model architecture used in GEOS-S2S and MERRA-2. When compared to MERRA-2, results for the 1-month forecast skill range from anomaly correlation of R anom =0.18 for precipitation to R anom =0.62 for soil moisture. Anomaly correlations are consistently lower when forecasts are 25 evaluated against independent observations; results for the 1-month forecast skill range from R anom =0.13 for snow water equivalent to R anom =0.24 for fractional snow cover. We find that, generally, hydrometeorological forecast skill is dependent on the forecast lead time, the memory of the variable within the physical system, and the validation dataset used. Overall, these results benchmark the GEOS-S2S system’s ability to forecast HMA hydrometeorology.

GEOS↗

Long-Term Changes in Stratospheric Age Spectra in the 21st Century in the Goddard Earth Observing System Chemistry-Climate Model (GEOSCCM)

In this study we investigate the long-term variations in the stratospheric age spectra using simulations of the 21st century with the Goddard Earth Observing System Chemistry- Climate Model (GEOSCCM). Our purposes are to characterize the long-term changes in the age spectra and identify processes that cause the decrease of the mean age in a warming climate. Changes in the age spectra in the 21st century simulations are characterized by decreases in the modal age, the mean age, the spectral width, and the tail decay timescale. Our analyses show that the decrease in the mean age is caused by two processes: the acceleration of the residual circulation that increases the young air masses in the stratosphere, and the weakening of the recirculation that leads to the decrease of tail of the age spectra and the decrease of the old air masses. The weakening of the stratospheric recirculation is also strongly correlated with the increase of the residual circulation. One important result of this study is that the decrease of the tail of the age spectra makes an important contribution to the decrease of the main age. Long-term changes in the stratospheric isentropic mixing are investigated. Mixing increases in the subtropical lower stratosphere, but its impact on the age spectra is outweighed by the increase of the residual circulation. The impacts of the long-term changes in the age spectra on long-lived chemical traces are also investigated. 37 2

Li, Feng↗

Retrieval of Latent Heating from TRMM Measurements

Precipitation, in driving the global hydrological cycle, strongly influences the behavior of the Earth's weather and climate systems and is central to their variability. Two-thirds of the global rainfall occurs over the Tropics, which leads to its profound effect on the general circulation of the atmosphere. This is because its energetic equivalent, latent heating (LH), is the tropical convective heat engine's primary fuel source as originally emphasized by Riehl and Malkus (1958). At low latitudes, LH stemming from extended bands of rainfall modulates large-scale zonal and meridional circulations and their consequent mass overturnings (e.g., Hartmann et al. 1984; Hack and Schubert 1990). Also, LH is the principal energy source in the creation, growth, vertical structure, and propagation of long-lived tropical waves (e.g., Puri 1987; Lau and Chan 1988). Moreover, the distinct vertical distribution properties of convective and stratiform LH profiles help influence climatic outcomes via their tight control on large-scale circulations (Lau and Peng 1987; Nakazawa 1988; Sui and Lau 1988; Emanuel et al. 1994; Yanai et al. 2000; Sumi and Nakazawa 2002; Schumacher et al. 2004). The purpose of this paper is to describe how LH profiles are being derived from satellite precipitation rate retrievals, focusing on those being made with Tropical Rainfall Measuring Mission (TRMM) satellite measurements.

Tao, W.-K.↗

Comparisons of Satellite Retrieval of Aerosol Properties from SeaWiFS and TOMS to the AERONET Measurements during ACE-Asia

The primary goal of the ACE (Aerosol Characterization Experiment)-Asia mission is to increase our understanding of how atmospheric aerosol particles over the Asian-Pacific region affect the Earth climate system. In support of the day-to-day flight planning of ACE-Asia, we built a near real-time system to provide satellite data from the polar-orbiting instruments Earth Probe TOMS (Total Ozone Mapping Spectrometer) (in the form of absorbing aerosol index) and SeaWiFS (Sea-Viewing Wide Field-of-View Sensor) (in the form of aerosol optical thickness and Angstrom exponent). The results were available via web access. These satellite data provide a 'big picture' of aerosol distribution in the region, which is complementary to the ground based measurements. In this paper, we will briefly discuss the algorithms used to generate these data. The retrieved aerosol optical thickness and Angstrom exponent from SeaWiFS will be compared with those obtained from various AERONET (Aerosol Robotic Network) sites over the Asian-Pacific region. The TOMS aerosol index will also be compared with AERONET aerosol optical thickness over different aerosol conditions. Finally, we will discuss the climate implication of our studies using the combined satellite and AERONET observations.

Hsu, Christina N.↗

Something is wrong with climate theory

We frequently forget that there is more to science than the making of a more precise measurement or a more elaborate calculation. It is even more than applying to new problems the methods that worked on old problems. These activities, which keep most of us busy most of the time, are important, but the new and unexpected discoveries are more important. And many radically new discoveries arise from scientific puzzles, the "anomalies." We believe that studies of past climates have exposed an anomaly that deserves attention and that may result in a fundamentally new understanding of the climate system. The poles have been much warmer throughout much of Earth's history than they are now. Ice-age episodes with durations of millions of years have been separated by periods of hundreds of millions of years that have left little or no evidence of polar ice sheets. The data are best for the most recent of these ice-free episodes so we will concentrate on the Eocene.

Non-NASA Center↗

Habitable Moist Atmospheres on Terrestrial Planets near the Inner Edge of the Habitable Zone Around M Dwarfs

Terrestrial planets in the habitable zones (HZs) of low-mass stars and cool dwarfs have received significant scrutiny recently. Transit spectroscopy of such planets with the James Webb Space Telescope (JWST) represents our best shot at obtaining the spectrum of a habitable planet within the next decade. As these planets are likely tidally locked, improved 3D numerical simulations of such planetary atmospheres are needed to guide target selection. Here we use a 3D climate system model, updated with new water-vapor absorption coefficients derived from the HITRAN 2012 database, to study ocean-covered planets at the inner edge of the HZ around late M to mid- K stars (2600 K less than or equal to T(sub eff) less than or equal to 4500 K). Our results indicate that these updated water-vapor coefficients result in significant warming compared to previous studies, so the inner HZ around M dwarfs is not as close as suggested by earlier work. Assuming synchronously rotating Earth-sized and Earth-mass planets with background 1 bar N2 atmospheres, we find that planets at the inner HZ of stars with T(sub eff) greater than 3000 K undergo the classical ''moist greenhouse'' (H2O mixing ratio greater than 10(exp -3) in the stratosphere) at significantly lower surface temperature (approx. 280 K) in our 3D model compared with 1D climate models (approx. 340 K). This implies that some planets around low-mass stars can simultaneously undergo water loss and remain habitable. However, for stars with T(sub eff) less than or equal to 3000 K, planets at the inner HZ may directly transition to a runaway state, while bypassing the moist greenhouse water loss entirely. We analyze transmission spectra of planets in a moist greenhouse regime and find that there are several prominent H2O features, including a broad feature between 5 and 8 micron, within JWST MIRI instrument range. Thus, relying only on standard Earth-analog spectra with 24 hr rotation period around M dwarfs for habitability studies will miss the strong H2O features that one would expect to see on synchronously rotating planets around M dwarf stars, with JWST.

Kopparapu, Ravi kumar↗

ESD Reviews: Model Dependence in Multi-Model Climate Ensembles: Weighting, Sub-Selection and Out-Of-Sample Testing

The rationale for using multi-model ensembles in climate change projections and impacts research is often based on the expectation that different models constitute independent estimates; therefore, a range of models allows a better characterisation of the uncertainties in the representation of the climate system than a single model. However, it is known that research groups share literature, ideas for representations of processes, parameterisations, evaluation data sets and even sections of model code. Thus, nominally different models might have similar biases because of similarities in the way they represent a subset of processes, or even be near-duplicates of others, weakening the assumption that they constitute independent estimates. If there are near-replicates of some models, then treating all models equally is likely to bias the inferences made using these ensembles. The challenge is to establish the degree to which this might be true for any given application. While this issue is recognised by many in the community, quantifying and accounting for model dependence in anything other than an ad-hoc way is challenging. Here we present a synthesis of the range of disparate attempts to define, quantify and address model dependence in multi-model climate ensembles in a common conceptual framework, and provide guidance on how users can test the efficacy of approaches that move beyond the equally weighted ensemble. In the upcoming Coupled Model Intercomparison Project phase 6 (CMIP6), several new models that are closely related to existing models are anticipated, as well as large ensembles from some models. We argue that quantitatively accounting for dependence in addition to model performance, and thoroughly testing the effectiveness of the approach used will be key to a sound interpretation of the CMIP ensembles in future scientific studies.

Abramowitz, Gab↗

How Long Do Satellites Need to Overlap? Evaluation of Climate Data Stability from Overlapping Satellite Records

Sensors on satellites provide unprecedented understanding of the Earth's climate system by measuring incoming solar radiation, as well as both passive and active observations of the entire Earth with outstanding spatial and temporal coverage. A common challenge with satellite observations is to quantify their ability to provide well-calibrated, long-term, stable records of the parameters they measure. Ground-based intercomparisons offer some insight, while reference observations and internal calibrations give further assistance for understanding long-term stability. A valuable tool for evaluating and developing long-term records from satellites is the examination of data from overlapping satellite missions. This paper addresses how the length of overlap affects the ability to identify an offset or a drift in the overlap of data between two sensors. Ozone and temperature data sets are used as examples showing that overlap data can differ by latitude and can change over time. New results are presented for the general case of sensor overlap by using Solar Radiation and Climate Experiment (SORCE) Spectral Irradiance Monitor (SIM) and Solar Stellar Irradiance Comparison Experiment (SOLSTICE) solar irradiance data as an example. To achieve a 1 % uncertainty in estimating the offset for these two instruments' measurement of the Mg II core (280 nm) requires approximately 5 months of overlap. For relative drift to be identified within 0.1 %/yr uncertainty (0.00008 W/sq m/nm/yr), the overlap for these two satellites would need to be 2.5 years. Additional overlap of satellite measurements is needed if, as is the case for solar monitoring, unexpected jumps occur adding uncertainty to both offsets and drifts; the additional length of time needed to account for a single jump in the overlap data may be as large as 50 % of the original overlap period in order to achieve the same desired confidence in the stability of the merged data set. Results presented here are directly applicable to satellite Earth observations. Approaches for Earth observations offer additional challenges due to the complexity of the observations, but Earth observations may also benefit from ancillary observations taken from ground-based and in situ sources. Difficult choices need to be made when monitoring approaches are considered; we outline some attempts at optimizing networks based on economic principles. The careful evaluation of monitoring overlap is important to the appropriate application of observational resources and to the usefulness of current and future observations.

climate data records↗

Interactive Soil Dust Aerosol Model in the GISS GCM: Sensitivity of the Soil Dust Cycle to Radiative Properties of Soil Dust Aerosols - Part 1

The sensitivity of the soil dust aerosol cycle to the radiative forcing by soil dust aerosols is studied. Four experiments with the NASA/GISS atmospheric general circulation model, which includes a soil dust aerosol model, are compared, all using a prescribed climatological sea surface temperature as lower boundary condition. In one experiment, dust is included as dynamic tracer only (without interacting with radiation), whereas dust interacts with radiation in the other simulations. Although the single scattering albedo of dust particles is prescribed to be globally uniform in the experiments with radiatively active dust, a different single scattering albedo is used in those experiments to estimate whether regional variations in dust optical properties, corresponding to variations in mineralogical composition among different source regions, are important for the soil dust cycle and the climate state. On a global scale, the radiative forcing by dust generally causes a reduction in the atmospheric dust load corresponding to a decreased dust source flux. That is, there is a negative feedback in the climate system due to the radiative effect of dust. The dust source flux and its changes were analyzed in more detail for the main dust source regions. This analysis shows that the reduction varies both with the season and with the single scattering albedo of the dust particles. By examining the correlation with the surface wind, it was found that the dust emission from the Saharan/Sahelian source region and from the Arabian peninsula, along with the sensitivity of the emission to the single scattering albedo of dust particles, are related to large scale circulation patterns, in particular to the trade winds during Northern Hemisphere winter and to the Indian monsoon circulation during summer. In the other regions, such relations to the large scale circulation were not found. There, the dependence of dust deflation to radiative forcing by dust particles is probably dominated by physical processes with short time scales. The experiments show that dust radiative forcing can lead to significant changes both in the soil dust cycle and in the climate state. To estimate dust concentration and radiative forcing by dust more accurately, dust size distributions and dust single scattering albedo in the model should be a function of the source region, because dust concentration and climate response to dust radiative forcing are sensitive to dust radiative parameters.

Perlwitz, Jan↗