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Search indexed NASA NTRS and DOE OSTI research on propulsion, heat transfer, battery materials and energy systems. Follow report and document links to the original sources.

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At least 325 records · Page 18
All sourcesNASA NTRSDOE OSTI
NASA NTRS2002

Hydrocarbon-Fueled Rocket Plume Measurement Using Polarized UV Raman Spectroscopy

The influence of pressure upon the signal strength and polarization properties of UV Raman signals has been investigated experimentally up to pressures of 165 psia (11 atm). No significant influence of pressure upon the Raman scattering cross section or depolarization ratio of the N2 Raman signal was found. The Raman scattering signal varied linearly with pressure for the 300 K N2 samples examined, thus showing no enhancement of cross section with increasing pressure. However at the highest pressures associated with rocket engine combustion, there could be an increase in the Raman scattering cross section, based upon others' previous work at higher pressures than those examined in this work. The influence of pressure upon thick fused silica windows, used in the NASA Modular Combustion Test Article, was also investigated. No change in the transmission characteristics of the windows occurred as the pressure difference across the windows increased from 0 psig up to 150 psig. A calibration was performed on the UV Raman system at Vanderbilt University, which is similar to the one at the NASA-Marshall Test Stand 115. The results of this calibration are described in the form of temperature-dependent functions, f(T)'s, that account for the increase in Raman scattering cross section with an increase in temperature and also account for the reduction in collected Raman signal if wavelength integration does not occur across the entire wavelength range of the Raman signal. These functions generally vary only by approximately 10% across their respective temperature ranges, except for the case Of CO2, where there is a factor of three difference in its f(T) from 300 K to 2500 K. However this trend for CO2 is consistent with the experimental work of others, and is expected based on the low characteristic vibrational temperature Of CO2. A time-averaged temperature measurement technique has been developed, using the same equipment as for the work mentioned above, that is based upon high-spectral resolution UV Raman scattering. This technique can provide temperature measurements for flows where pressure cannot be measured.

Wehrmeyer, Joseph A.↗
NASA NTRS2007

In Situ Multi-Species (O2, N2, Fuel, Other) Fiber Optic Sensor for Fuel Tank Ullage

A rugged and compact fiber optic sensor system for in situ real-time measurement of nitrogen (N2), oxygen (O2), hydrocarbon (HC) fuel vapors, and other gases has been developed over the past several years at Glenn Research Center. The intrinsically-safe, solid-state fiber optic sensor system provides a 1% precision measurement (by volume) of multiple gases in a 5-sec time window. The sensor has no consumable parts to wear out and requires less than 25 W of electrical power to operate. The sensor head is rugged and compact and is ideal for use in harsh environments such as inside an aircraft fuel tank, or as a feedback sensor in the vent-box of an on-board inert gas generation system (OBIGGS). Multiple sensor heads can be monitored with a single optical detection unit for a cost-effective multi-point sensor system. The present sensor technology is unique in its ability to measure N2 concentration directly, and in its ability to differentiate different types of HC fuels. The present sensor system provides value-added aircraft safety information by simultaneously and directly measuring the nitrogen-oxygen-fuel triplet, which provides the following advantages: (1) information regarding the extent of inerting by N2, (2) information regarding the chemical equivalence ratio, (3) information regarding the composition of the aircraft fuel, and (4) by providing a self-consistent calibration by utilizing a singular sensor for all species. Using the extra information made available by this sensor permits the ignitability of a fuel-oxidizer mixture to be more accurately characterized, which may permit a reduction in the amount of inerting required on a real-time basis, and yet still maintain a fire-safe fuel tank. This translates to an increase in fuel tank fire-safety through a better understanding of the physics of fuel ignition, and at the same time, a reduction in compressed bleed air usage and concomitant aircraft operational costs over the long-run. The present fiber optic sensor can also be used as a false-alarm-free engine/hidden/cargo space fire detector (by measuring increased CO2 and CO, and decreased O2), a multi-point in situ measurement and certification system for halogenated-compound fire protection systems, and for the testing and certification of other aircraft safety sensor systems. The technology (LEW-17826-1) developed in the present sensor system is patent pending.

Nguyen, Quang-Viet↗
NASA NTRS2016

North American Megadroughts in the Common Era: Reconstructions and Simulations

During the Medieval Climate Anomaly (MCA), Western North America experienced episodes of intense aridity that persisted for multiple decades or longer. These megadroughts are well documented in many proxy records, but the causal mechanisms are poorly understood. General circulation models (GCMs) simulate megadroughts, but do not reproduce the temporal clustering of events during the MCA, suggesting they are not caused by the time history of volcanic or solar forcing. Instead, GCMs generate megadroughts through (1) internal atmospheric variability, (2) sea-surface temperatures, and (3) land surface and dust aerosol feedbacks. While no hypothesis has been definitively rejected, and no GCM has accurately reproduced all features (e.g., timing, duration, and extent) of any specific megadrought, their persistence suggests a role for processes that impart memory to the climate system (land surface and ocean dynamics). Over the 21st century, GCMs project an increase in the risk of megadrought occurrence through greenhouse gas forced reductions in precipitation and increases in evaporative demand. This drying is robust across models and multiple drought indicators, but major uncertainties still need to be resolved. These include the potential moderation of vegetation evaporative losses at higher atmospheric [CO2], variations in land surface model complexity, and decadal to multidecadal modes of natural climate variability that could delay or advance onset of aridification over the the next several decades. Because future droughts will arise from both natural variability and greenhouse gas forced trends in hydroclimate, improving our understanding of the natural drivers of persistent multidecadal megadroughts should be a major research priority.

atmospheric temperature↗
NASA NTRS2013

Advanced Exploration Systems Logistics Reduction and Repurposing Trash-to-Gas and Heat Melt Compactor KSC

Topics covered: 1. Project Structure 2. "Trash to Gas" 3. "Smashing Trash! The Heat Melt Compactor" 4. "Heat Melt Compaction as an Effective Treatment for Eliminating Microorganisms from Solid Waste" Thermal degradation of trash reduces volume while creating water, carbon dioxide and ash. CO2 can be fed to Sabatier reactor for CH4 production to fuel LOX/LCH4 ascent vehicle. Optimal performance: HFWS, full temperature ramp to 500-600 C. Tar challenges exist. Catalysis: Dolomag did eliminate allene byproducts from the product stream. 2nd Gen Reactor Studies. Targeting power, mass, time efficiency. Gas separation, Catalysis to reduce tar formation. Microgravity effects. Downselect in August will determine where we should spend time optimizing the technology.

Caraccio, Anne J.↗
NASA NTRS2003

Thermal Analysis of Acicular Shaped Magnetite

We are in the process of developing a database on the thermal properties of well-characterized Martian analog materials in support of future Mars surface missions. The database contains the thermal behaviors of these analog materials under reduced and Earth ambient pressures. Magnetite in planetary materials has received considerable attention in recent years since the identification of fine grain single-domain magnetite in Martian meteorite ALH84001 and their possible link to past life on Mars (i.e., possible biominerals of magnetotactic bacteria). Because of its possible importance to Mars science, we report here the thermal properties of magnetite particles with acicular morphology, i.e., needle-shaped magnetite. Acicular shaped magnetite can be commercially produced from goethite (FeOOH) as the starting material via a H2 reduction process. However, instead of using this process or procedure, we report here on the thermal characterization of acicular magnetite formed under reducing conditions from well-characterized needle-shaped goethite at low temperature in controlled CO-CO2 1-bar atmosphere gas mixing furnaces.

Lauer, H. V., Jr.↗
NASA NTRS2009

Evaluating the Environmental Performance of the U.S. Next Generation Air Transportation System

The environmental impacts of several possible U.S. Next Generation Air Transportation scenarios have been quantitatively evaluated for noise, air-quality, fuel-efficiency, and CO2 impacts. Three principal findings have emerged. (1) 2025 traffic levels about 30% higher than 2006 are obtained by increasing traffic according to FAA projections while also limiting traffic at each airport using reasonable ratios of demand to capacity. NextGen operational capabilities alone enable attainment of an additional 10-15% more flights beyond that 2025 baseline level with negligible additional noise, air-quality, and fuel-efficiency impacts. (2) The addition of advanced engine and airframe technologies provides substantial additional reductions in noise and air-quality impacts, and further improves fuel efficiency. 2025 environmental goals based on projected system-wide improvement rates of about 1% per year for noise and fuel-efficiency (an air-quality goal is not yet formulated) are achieved using this new vehicle technology. (3) Overall air-transport "product", as measured by total flown distance or total payload distance, increases by about 50% relative to 2006, but total fuel consumption and CO2 production increase by only about 40% using NextGen operational capabilities. With the addition of advanced engine/airframe technologies, the increase in total fuel consumption and CO2 production can be reduced to about 30%.

Environmental impact↗
NASA NTRS2003

Cost Effective Measures to Reduce CO2 Emissions in the Air Freight Sector

This paper presents cost effective measures to reduce CO2 emissions in the air freight sector. One door-to-door transport chain is studied in detail from a Scandinavian city to a city in southern Europe. The transport chain was selected by a group of representatives from the air freight sector in order to encompass general characteristics within the sector. Three different ways of shipping air cargo are studied, i.e., by air freighter, as belly freight (in passenger aircrafts) and trucking. CO2 emissions are calculated for each part of the transport chain and its relative importance towards the total amount CO2 emitted during the whole transport chain is shown. It is confirmed that the most CO2 emitting part of the transport chain is the actual flight and that it is in the take-off and climbing phases that most fuel are burned. It is also known that the technical development of aircraft implies a reduction in fuel consumption for each new generation of aircraft. Thus, the aircraft manufacturers have an important role in this development. Having confirmed these observations, this paper focuses on other factors that significantly affects the fuel consumption. Analyzed factors are, e.g., optimization of speed and altitude, traffic management, congestion on and around the airfields, tankering, "latest acceptance time" for goods and improving the load factor. The different factors relative contribution to the total emission levels for the transport chain has been estimated.

Blinge, Magnus↗
NASA NTRS2015

Technology Advancement for Active Remote Sensing of Carbon Dioxide from Space Using the ASCENDS CarbonHawk Experiment Simulator: First Results

The ASCENDS CarbonHawk Experiment Simulator (ACES) is a newly developed lidar developed at NASA Langley Research Center and funded by NASA's Earth Science Technology Office (ESTO) Instrument Incubator Program (IIP) that seeks to advance technologies critical to measuring atmospheric column carbon dioxide (CO2) mixing ratios in support of the NASA Active Sensing of CO2 Emissions over Nights, Days, and Seasons (ASCENDS) mission. The technology advancements targeted include: (1) increasing the power-aperture product to approach ASCENDS mission requirements by implementing multi-aperture telescopes and multiple co-aligned laser transmitters; (2) incorporating high-efficiency, high-power Erbium-Doped Fiber Amplifiers (EDFAs); (3) developing and incorporating a high-bandwidth, low-noise HgCdTe detector and transimpedence amplifier (TIA) subsystem capable of long-duration autonomous operation on Global Hawk aircraft, and (4) advancing algorithms for cloud and aerosol discrimination. The ACES instrument architecture is being developed for operation on high-altitude aircraft and will be directly scalable to meet the ASCENDS mission requirements. These technologies are critical towards developing not only spaceborne instruments but also their airborne simulators, with lower platform requirements for size, mass, and power, and with improved instrument performance for the ASCENDS mission. ACES transmits five laser beams: three from commercial EDFAs operating near 1.57 microns, and two from the Exelis oxygen (O2) Raman fiber laser amplifier system operating near 1.26 microns. The three EDFAs are capable of transmitting up to 10 watts average optical output power each and are seeded by compact, low noise, stable, narrow-linewidth laser sources stabilized with respect to a CO2 absorption line using a multi-pass gas absorption cell. The Integrated-Path Differential Absorption (IPDA) lidar approach is used at both wavelengths to independently measure the CO2 and O2 column number densities and retrieve the average column CO2 mixing ratio. The ACES receiver uses three fiber-coupled 17.8-cm diameter athermal telescopes. The transmitter assembly consists of five fiber-coupled laser collimators and an associated Risley prism pair for each laser to co-align the outgoing laser beams and to align them with the telescope field of view. The backscattered return signals collected by the three telescopes are combined in a fiber bundle and sent to a single low noise detector. The detector/TIA development has improved the existing detector subsystem by increasing its bandwidth to 4.7 MHz from 500 kHz and increasing the duration of autonomous, service-free operation periods from 4 hours to >24 hours. The new detector subsystem enables the utilization of higher laser modulation rates, which provides greater flexibility for implementing advanced thin-cloud discrimination algorithms as well as improving range-determination resolution and error reduction. The cloud/aerosol discrimination algorithm development by Langley and Exelis features a new suite of algorithms for the minimization/elimination of bias errors in the return signal induced by the presence of intervening thin clouds. Multiple laser modulation schemes are being tested in an effort to significantly mitigate the effects of thin clouds on the retrieved CO2 column amounts. Full instrument development concluded in the spring of 2014. After ground range tests of the instrument, ACES successfully completed six test flights on the Langley Hu-25 aircraft in July, 2014, and recorded data at multiple altitudes over land and ocean surfaces with and without intervening clouds. Preliminary results from these test flights will be presented in this paper.

Obland, Michael D.↗
NASA NTRS2007

Development of a Rapid Cycling CO(sub 2) and H(sub 2)O Removal Sorbent

The National Aeronautics and Space Administration (NASA) planned future missions set stringent demands on the design of the Portable Life Support System (PLSS), requiring dramatic reductions in weight, decreased reliance on supplies and greater flexibility on the types of missions. Use of regenerable systems that reduce weight and volume of the Extravehicular Mobility Unit (EMU) is of critical importance to NASA, both for low orbit operations and for long duration manned missions. The carbon dioxide and humidity control unit in the existing PLSS design is relatively large, since it has to remove and store 8 hours worth of CO2. If the sorbent regeneration can be carried out during the extravehicular activity (EVA) with a relatively high regeneration frequency, the size of the sorbent canister and weight can be significantly reduced. The progress of regenerable CO2 and humidity control is leading us towards the use of a rapid cycling amine system. TDA Research, Inc. is developing compact, regenerable sorbent materials to control CO2 and humidity in the space suit ventilation loop. The sorbent can be regenerated using space vacuum during the EVA, eliminating all carbon dioxide and humidity duration-limiting elements in the life support system. The material also has applications in other areas of space exploration such as the Orion spacecraft and other longer duration exploration missions requiring regenerable technologies. This paper summarizes the results of the sorbent development, testing, and evaluation efforts to date. The results of a preliminary system analysis are also included, showing the size and volume reductions for PLSS provided by the new system.

Paul, Heather↗
NASA NTRS2016

Potential Impact of a US Climate Policy and Air Quality Regulations on Future Air Quality and Climate Change

We have investigated how future air quality and climate change are influenced by the US air quality regulations that existed or were proposed in 2013 and a hypothetical climate mitigation policy that aims to reduce 2050 CO2 emissions to be 50% below 2005 emissions. Using the NASA GISS ModelE2 general circulation model, we look at the impacts for year 2030 and 2055. The US energy-sector emissions are from the GLIMPSE project (GEOS-Chem LIDORT Integrated with MARKAL (MARKet ALlocation) for the Purpose of Scenario Exploration), and other US emissions data sets and the rest of the world emissions data sets are based on the RCP4.5 scenario. The US air quality regulations are projected to have a strong beneficial impact on US air quality and public health in year 2030 and 2055 but result in positive radiative forcing. Under this scenario, no more emission constraints are added after 2020, and the impacts on air quality and climate change are similar between year 2030 and 2055. Surface particulate matter with a diameter smaller than 2.5 micron PM(sub 2:5) is reduced by 2 approximately μg/m(sup -3) on average over the USA, and surface ozone by approximately 8 ppbv. The improved air quality prevents about 91 400 premature deaths in the USA, mainly due to the PM(sub 2:5) reduction approximately (74 200 lives saved). The air quality regulations reduce the light-reflecting aerosols (i.e., sulfate and organic matter) more than the light-absorbing species (i.e., black carbon and ozone), leading to a strong positive radiative forcing (RF) over the USA by both aerosols' direct and indirect forcing: the total RF is approximately 0.04 W m(sup -2) over the globe, and approximately 0.8 W m(sup -2) over the USA. Under the hypothetical climate policy, a future CO2 emissions cut is achieved in part by relying less on coal, and thus SO2 emissions are noticeably reduced. This provides air quality co-benefits, but it could lead to potential climate disbenefits over the USA. In 2055, the US mean total RF is +C02 W m(sup -2) due to positive aerosol direct and indirect forcing, while the global mean total RF is -0.06 W m(sup -2) due to the dominant negative CO2 RF (instantaneous RF). To achieve a regional-scale climate benefit via a climate policy, it is critical (1) to have multinational efforts to reduce greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions and (2) to simultaneously target emission reduction of light-absorbing species (e.g., BC and O3) on top of long-lived species. The latter is very desirable as the resulting climate benefit occurs faster and provides cobenefits to air quality and public health.

Air quality↗
NASA NTRS1992

Effects of inspired CO2, hyperventilation, and time on VA/Q inequality in the dog

In a recent study by Tsukimoto et al. (J. Appl. Physiol. 68: 2488-2493, 1990), CO2 inhalation appeared to reduce the size of the high ventilation-perfusion ratio (VA/Q) mode commonly observed in anesthetized mechanically air-ventilated dogs. In that study, large tidal volumes (VT) were used during CO2 inhalation to preserve normocapnia. To separate the influences of CO2 and high VT on the VA/Q distribution in the present study, we examined the effect of inspired CO2 on the high VA/Q mode using eight mechanically ventilated dogs (4 given CO2, 4 controls). The VA/Q distribution was measured first with normal VT and then with increased VT. In the CO2 group at high VT, data were collected before, during, and after CO2 inhalation. With normal VT, there was no difference in the size of the high VA/Q mode between groups [10.5 +/- 3.5% (SE) of ventilation in the CO2 group, 11.8 +/- 5.2% in the control group]. Unexpectedly, the size of the high VA/Q mode decreased similarly in both groups over time, independently of the inspired PCO2, at a rate similar to the fall in cardiac output over time. The reduction in the high VA/Q mode together with a simultaneous increase in alveolar dead space (estimated by the difference between inert gas dead space and Fowler dead space) suggests that poorly perfused high VA/Q areas became unperfused over time. A possible mechanism is that elevated alveolar pressure and decreased cardiac output eliminate blood flow from corner vessels in nondependent high VA/Q regions.

NASA Discipline Cardiopulmonary↗
NASA NTRS2012

Recent Development of Component Technologies for 2 micrometer LIDAR at JPL

Objective::Global-scale atmospheric measurements of Carbon Dioxide (CO2) and other Green House Gases with full diurnal, full latitude, all season coverage capability. Implementation: Use of the laser- based Integrated Path Differential Absorption (IPDA) method at 1.57 and 2.05 microns. Airborne lasers are needed to demonstrate instrument capabilities, risk reduction and satellite measurement validation.

detector↗
NASA NTRS2018

Changes in Tropical Clouds and Atmospheric Circulation Associated with Rapid Adjustment Induced by Increased Atmospheric CO2 – A Multiscale Modeling Framework Study

The radiative heating increase due to increased CO2 concentration is the primary source for the rapid adjustment of atmospheric circulation and clouds. In this study, we investigate the rapid adjustment resulting from doubling of CO2 and its physical mechanism using a multiscale modeling framework (MMF). The MMF includes an advanced higher-order turbulence closure in its cloud-resolving model component and simulates realistic shallow and deep cloud climatology and boundary layer turbulence. The rapid adjustment over the tropics is characterized by 1) reduced ascent and descent strengths over the ocean, 2) increased lower tropospheric stability (LTS) over the subsidence region, 3) shoaling of planetary boundary layers over the ocean, 4) increased deep convection over lands and shift of cloud coverage from the ocean to lands, and 5) reduced sensible (SH) and latent heat (LH) fluxes over the oceanic deep convective regions. Unlike conventional general circulation models and another MMF, a reduction in the global-mean shortwave cloud radiative cooling is not simulated, due to the increase in low clouds at lower altitudes over the ocean, resulting from reduced cloud-top entrainment due to strengthened inversion. Changes in regional circulation play a key role in cloud changes and shift of cloud coverage to lands. Weaker energy transport resulting from water vapor and cloud CO2 masking effects reduces the upward motion and convective clouds in the oceanic regions. The ocean-land transports are linked to the partitioning of surface SH and LH fluxes that increases humidity over lands and enhances deep convection over the tropical lands.

Xu, Kuan-Man↗
NASA NTRS2012

The Influence of Ozone Precursor Emissions from Four World Regions on Tropospheric Composition and Radiative Climate Forcing

Ozone (O3) precursor emissions influence regional and global climate and air quality through changes in tropospheric O3 and oxidants, which also influence methane (CH4) and sulfate aerosols (SO4 (sup 2-)). We examine changes in the tropospheric composition of O3, CH4, SO4 (sup 2-) and global net radiative forcing (RF) for 20% reductions in global CH4 burden and in anthropogenic O3 precursor emissions (NOx, NMVOC, and CO) from four regions (East Asia, Europe and Northern Africa, North America, and South Asia) using the Task Force on Hemispheric Transport of Air Pollution Source-Receptor global chemical transport model (CTM) simulations, assessing uncertainty (mean plus or minus 1 standard deviation) across multiple CTMs. We evaluate steady state O3 responses, including long-term feedbacks via CH4. With a radiative transfer model that includes greenhouse gases and the aerosol direct effect, we find that regional NOx reductions produce global, annually averaged positive net RFs (0.2 plus or minus 0.6 to 1.7 2 mWm(sup -2)/Tg N yr(sup -1), with some variation among models. Negative net RFs result from reductions in global CH4 (-162.6 plus or minus 2 mWm(sup -2) for a change from 1760 to 1408 ppbv CH4) and regional NMVOC (-0.4 plus or minus 0.2 to 0.7 plus or minus 0.2 mWm(sup -2)/Tg C yr(sup -1) and CO emissions (-0.13 plus or minus 0.02 to -0.15 plus or minus 0.02 mWm(sup-2)/Tg CO yr(sup-1). Including the effect of O3 on CO2 uptake by vegetation likely makes these net RFs more negative by -1.9 to- 5.2 mWm(sup -2)/Tg N yr(sup -1), -0.2 to -0.7 mWm(sup -2)/Tg C yr(sup -1), and -0.02 to -0.05 mWm(sup -2)/ Tg CO yr(sup -1). Net RF impacts reflect the distribution of concentration changes, where RF is affected locally by changes in SO4 (sup -2), regionally to hemispherically by O3, and globally by CH4. Global annual average SO4 2 responses to oxidant changes range from 0.4 plus or minus 2.6 to -1.9 plus or minus 1.3 Gg for NOx reductions, 0.1 plus or minus 1.2 to -0.9 plus or minus 0.8 Gg for NMVOC reductions, and -0.09 plus or minus 0.5 to -0.9 plus or minus 0.8 Gg for CO reductions, suggesting additional research is needed. The 100-year global warming potentials (GWP(sub 100)) are calculated for the global CH4 reduction (20.9 plus or minus 3.7 without stratospheric O3 or water vapor, 24.2 plus or minus 4.2 including those components), and for the regional NOx, NMVOC, and CO reductions (18.7 plus or minus 25.9 to 1.9 plus or minus 8.7 for NOx, 4.8 plus or minus 1.7 to 8.3 plus or minus 1.9 for NMVOC, and 1.5 plus or minus 0.4 to 1.7 plus or minus 0.5 for CO). Variation in GWP(sub 100) for NOx, NMVOC, and CO suggests that regionally specific GWPs may be necessary and could support the inclusion of O3 precursors in future policies that address air quality and climate change simultaneously. Both global net RF and GWP100 are more sensitive to NOx and NMVOC reductions from South Asia than the other three regions.

ozone↗
NASA NTRS1973

Effect of artificial gravity on thermoregulation, respiratory metabolism and intermediary metabolism of animals

Metabolic alterations in animals exposed to radial acceleration are reported. Temperatures in acutely stressed animals dropped profoundly in correlation with decreased food consumption. Repeated exposure of the acutely stressed animal caused a decrease in hypothermic response whereas deceleration or reduction of G load did not significantly change body temperatures. Adrenal corticosteroids affected significantly the animal's recovery rate. No changes occured in body temperature patterns of chronically centrifuged animals after full adaptation; their respiratory rate increased very significantly in terms of CO2 output as did their glucose uptake by muscle tissues and their insulin responsiveness or sensitivity.

Oyama, J.↗
NASA NTRS1991

Nonlinear dynamics of global atmospheric and Earth-system processes

General Circulation Model (GCM) studies of the atmospheric response to change boundary conditions are discussed. Results are reported on an extensive series of numerical studies based on the National Center for Atmospheric Research (NCAR) Community Climate Model (CCM) general circulation model. In these studies the authors determined the response to systematic changes in atmospheric CO2 ranging from 100 to 1000 ppm; to changes in the prescribed sea surface temperature (SST) in the Gulf of Mexico, such as occurred during the deglaciation phase of the last ice age; to changes in soil moisture over North America; and to changes in sea ice extent in the Southern Hemisphere. Study results show that the response of surface temperature and other variables is nearly logarithmic, with lower levels of CO2 implying greater sensitivity of the atmospheric state to changes in CO2. It was found that the surface temperature of the Gulf of Mexico exerts considerable control over the storm track and behavior of storm systems over the North Atlantic through its influence on evaporation and the source of latent heat. It was found that reductions in soil moisture can play a significant role in amplifying and maintaining North American drought, particularly when a negative soil moisture anomaly prevails late in the spring.

Saltzman, Barry↗
NASA NTRSDate not supplied

Impact of a Regional Drought on Land and Atmospheric Carbon over the North America

The spatiotemporal extent of a regional drought’s impact on land-atmosphere carbon and their mechanistic linkages are still poorly understood. Allowing carbon-water-energy feedback in an ensemble of coupled land-atmosphere simulations, this study quantifies induced changes in meteorology and carbon caused by an idealized 3-month meteorological drought over to the lower Mississippi River Valley (~500,000 km2). The imposed drought leads to a 23% Gross Primary Production (GPP) reduction in the drought area and the GPP reductions in some remote areas that are adjacent to the imposed drought through the changes in remote meteorology, particularly by the induced precipitation. The effect of the meteorological anomalies on GPP is greater, by at least an order of magnitude, than that of the atmospheric CO2 anomalies. While the magnitude of induced CO2 anomalies near the land surface can be as large as 3.57ppm, the column-averaged CO2 increases up to 0.78ppm and thus is below the precision limit (~1ppm) of current greenhouse gas (GHG) observing satellites. Spatially, the CO2 anomalies cover an area up to three times of that of the imposed drought, which suggests that the atmospheric transport needs to be considered in the interpretation of carbon anomalies in the atmosphere.

Eunjee Lee↗
NASA NTRS2021

Future Climate Change Significantly Alters Interannual Wheat Yield Variability Over Half of Harvested Areas

Climate change affects the spatial and temporal distribution of crop yields, which can critically impair food security across scales. A number of previous studies have assessed the impact of climate change on mean crop yield and future food availability, but much less is known about potential future changes in interannual yield variability. Here, we evaluate future changes in relative interannual global wheat yield variability (the coefficient of variation (CV)) at 0.25° spatial resolution for two representative concentration pathways (RCP4.5 and RCP8.5). A multi-model ensemble of crop model emulators based on global process-based models is used to evaluate responses to changes in temperature, precipitation, and CO2. The results indicate that over 60% of harvested areas could experience significant changes in interannual yield variability under a high-emission scenario by the end of the 21st century (2066–2095). About 31% and 44% of harvested areas are projected to undergo significant reductions of relative yield variability under RCP4.5 and RCP8.5, respectively. In turn, wheat yield is projected to become more unstable across 23% (RCP4.5) and 18% (RCP8.5) of global harvested areas—mostly in hot or low fertilizer input regions, including some of the major breadbasket countries. The major driver of increasing yield CV change is the increase in yield standard deviation, whereas declining yield CV is mostly caused by stronger increases in mean yield than in the standard deviation. Changes in temperature are the dominant cause of change in wheat yield CVs, having a greater influence than changes in precipitation in 53% and 72% of global harvested areas by the end of the century under RCP4.5 and RCP8.5, respectively. This research highlights the potential challenges posed by increased yield variability and the need for tailored regional adaptation strategies.

Climate change↗