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DOE OSTI2023

Performance of Fire Danger Indices and Their Utility in Predicting Future Wildfire Danger Over the Conterminous United States

Abstract Predicting current and future wildfire frequency and size is central to wildfire control and management. Multiple fire danger indices (FDIs) that incorporate weather and fuel conditions have been developed and utilized to support wildfire predictions and risk assessment. However, the scale‐dependent performance of individual FDIs remains poorly understood, which leads to large uncertainty in the estimated fire sizes under climate change. Here, we calculate four commonly used FDIs over the conterminous United States using high‐resolution (4 km) climate and fuel data sets for the 1984–2019 period. The relationships of these four FDIs to the observed wildfire sizes show that higher values of FDIs correlate to larger total fire sizes; this correlation is more robust at larger spatial scales. Sensitivity analysis indicates that the daily minimum relative humidity and precipitation are the most important drivers of the annual mean fire danger. In the instances of extreme fire danger, wind speed becomes a critical factor and should be considered in the calculation of the FDI. To assess the impact of climate change on future fire size, we calculate the present‐day and end‐of‐century FDIs using the 12 km regional climate model simulations. The four FDIs generally predict consistent changes in future fire potential, suggesting an overall higher fire potential in conjunction with a prolonged wildfire season in future climate. Regionally, the four FDIs also reveal similar seasonal patterns as the enhancement arises mostly in spring and summer over the southwest US while in summer and fall over the northern and eastern US.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

DOE OSTI2022

Size and Distribution of Parr Produced from Natural‐ and Hatchery‐Origin Steelhead Spawning Naturally in a Small Pacific Northwest Coastal Stream

Abstract Recent studies suggest that steelhead Oncorhynchus mykiss produced from local hatchery‐origin (HOR) adults have lower lifetime fitness than their natural‐origin (NOR) counterparts. To increase our understanding of this pattern, we compared age‐1 parr size and distribution produced by a local integrated population of HOR and NOR adults spawning naturally across a range of environmental conditions. Across 8 years, we used genetic parentage assignments and field measurements of parr in conjunction with creek temperature and flow data to find small, nonbiologically significant differences in size between parr of different parent origins. This suggests that parr produced by HOR adults are acquiring enough resources to grow at a rate similar to that of parr produced by NOR adults. In contrast to origin, we found strong positive associations between mean size of parr and annual mean water temperature and summer flow. Additionally, the distribution of parr was similar and HOR‐produced parr were not skewed relative to the location of the hatchery. Parr occupying the full extent of accessible and suitable habitat might be a positive outcome for hatchery programs seeking to supplement an existing population or replace an extirpated population. However, these results also imply that HOR fish could be competing with NOR fish for food and space, which might be less desirable if the goal of the hatchery program is harvest and not supplementation. Our results highlight the importance of clearly articulated goals for the hatchery program, as the observed pattern could be deemed a benefit or a risk depending on the hatchery's purpose. Lastly, projections for higher water temperatures and reduced summer flows, when considered in the context of the correlations we observed for size of parr, imply that coastal steelhead populations could start experiencing negative climate impacts with respect to steelhead parr growth metrics during the summer in the next few decades.

Kennedy, Benjamen M.↗

NASA NTRS2020

Mars Ascent Vehicle Hybrid Propulsion Configuration

As part of a Mars Sample Return (MSR) campaign, two Mars Ascent Vehicle (MAV) configurations have been designed in parallel. Each ascent vehicle configuration has a different propulsion system which ultimately leads to two unique vehicle designs. As part of a Preliminary Architecture Assessment (PAA), these vehicle designs were developed to the same level of maturity in order to inform the selection of one of the vehicles as the point of departure design for the campaign. The selection will be made in November 2019. The initial MSR architecture called for a hybrid-based propulsion MAV. This type of propulsion system calls for a solid wax motor that would utilize liquid MON-25 as an oxidizer. Hybrid rocket propulsion allows for more flexibility than traditional solid or liquid propulsion options, and typically benefits from the advantages of both. A hybrid motor can be throttled and shut down easily, and avoids significant risk in manufacturing and handling. On a theoretical level, hybrid motors perform at a higher specific impulse (Isp) than solid motors. The primary disadvantage of hybrid motors comes from additional complexity and significantly less flight heritage and low Technology Readiness Level (TRL). This paper describes the design of the hybrid propulsion configuration. An additional paper will be published describing the design of the solid propulsion configuration1. The hybrid propulsion configuration MAV was developed in 2019 by NASA Marshall Space Flight Center (MSFC) in association with NASA Jet Propulsion Laboratory (JPL). It features a Single Stage to Orbit (SSTO) design with an SP7A solid wax fuel and MON-25 liquid oxidizer. The liquid portion of the vehicle allows for a Liquid Injection Thrust Vector Controller (LITVC) as well as hypergolic propellant additives for ignition. The vehicle was designed to deliver approximately 0.31kg of Martian geological samples to a circular orbit at Mars of 343km at a 25o inclination. Although hybrid propulsion in general has been used on launch vehicles in the past, the integrated vehicle subsystems that operate in conjunction with these propulsion elements do not typically operate in a Martian environment, which in this application can get as cold as -40oC. The PAA advanced the maturity of these subsystems by performing detailed design and analysis on the vehicle with respect to structures and mechanisms, Guidance/Navigation/Control (GNC) systems, avionics, Reaction Control System (RCS), LITVC, thermal environments, and advanced Computational Fluid Dynamics (CFD). This paper will summarize the results of these studies.

Yaghoubi, Darius↗

NASA NTRS1991

Is bigger always better? An economic study of U.S. ETO vehicle architectures

This analysis, performed as part of NASA's Space Transportation Infrastructure Study, compares the cost efficiency of two candidate launch vehicle families, used in conjunction with existing expendable launch vehicles and the Shuttle, to accomplish the nation's future space missions through 2030. Missions analyzed include those identified in NASA's Civil Needs Data Base (CNDB) and Space Exploration Initiative (SEI) Option E program, as well as estimates of commercial and U.S. Department of Defense flights. A family of Shuttle-derived In-line vehicles is compared against a family designed around a vehicle optimized for large (250t) payloads. The analysis is performed within the context of an entire space transportation architecture. The goal is to determine which architecture best captures the required missions most cost-effectively. Results indicate that, for the particular mission model analyzed, neither option is clearly superior across the entire payload range. The Shuttle-derived family displays a better evolutionary path for supporting the total mission model (CNDB plus SEI missions). It also reduces earth-to-orbit (ETO) peak funding by 20 percent. The architecture incorporating the Heavy Lift ETO family minimizes SEI program cost and on-orbit operations but is subject to greater schedule risk because of the need for concurrent ETO core and engine development.

Eimers, Dan R.↗

NASA NTRS2005

Heat Transfer and Thermal Stability Research for Advanced Hydrocarbon Fuel Technologies

In recent years there has been increased interest in the development of a new generation of high performance boost rocket engines. These efforts, which will represent a substantial advancement in boost engine technology over that developed for the Space Shuttle Main Engines in the early 1970s, are being pursued both at NASA and the United States Air Force. NASA, under its Space Launch Initiative s Next Generation Launch Technology Program, is investigating the feasibility of developing a highly reliable, long-life, liquid oxygen/kerosene (RP-1) rocket engine for launch vehicles. One of the top technical risks to any engine program employing hydrocarbon fuels is the potential for fuel thermal stability and material compatibility problems to occur under the high-pressure, high-temperature conditions required for regenerative fuel cooling of the engine combustion chamber and nozzle. Decreased heat transfer due to carbon deposits forming on wetted fuel components, corrosion of materials common in engine construction (copper based alloys), and corrosion induced pressure drop increases have all been observed in laboratory tests simulating rocket engine cooling channels. To mitigate these risks, the knowledge of how these fuels behave in high temperature environments must be obtained. Currently, due to the complexity of the physical and chemical process occurring, the only way to accomplish this is empirically. Heated tube testing is a well-established method of experimentally determining the thermal stability and heat transfer characteristics of hydrocarbon fuels. The popularity of this method stems from the low cost incurred in testing when compared to hot fire engine tests, the ability to have greater control over experimental conditions, and the accessibility of the test section, facilitating easy instrumentation. These benefits make heated tube testing the best alternative to hot fire engine testing for thermal stability and heat transfer research. This investigation used the Heated Tube Facility at the NASA Glenn Research Center to perform a thermal stability and heat transfer characterization of RP-1 in an environment simulating that of a high chamber pressure, regenerative cooled rocket engine. The first step in the research was to investigate the carbon deposition process of previous heated tube experiments by performing scanning electron microscopic analysis in conjunction with energy dispersive spectroscopy on the tube sections. This analysis gave insight into the carbon deposition process and the effect that test conditions played in the formation of deleterious coke. Furthermore, several different formations were observed and noted. One other crucial finding of this investigation was that in sulfur containing hydrocarbon fuels, the interaction of the sulfur components with copper based wall materials presented a significant corrosion problem. This problem in many cases was more life limiting than those posed by the carbon deposition process. The results of this microscopic analysis was detailed and presented at the December 2003 JANNAF Air-Breathing Propulsion Meeting as a Materials Compatibility and Thermal Stability Analysis of common Hydrocarbon Fuels (reference 1).

DeWitt, Kenneth↗

NASA NTRSDate not supplied

Global Carbon Consumption Database for Wildland Fire

Fire plays a significant role on both national and global scales, profoundly impacting landscapes shaped by human activity as well as those left wild. Even though fire can be devastating, wildland fire is a natural and integral force on our landscapes. Fires can also serve to reduce fuels to mitigate wildfire risk and maintain healthy ecosystem functions. However, the smoke produced by fires, regardless of their size or purpose, can pose adverse effects on human health when inhaled downwind. Understanding the influence of smoke on air quality and human well-being necessitates the quantification of emissions that fires release into the atmosphere. In response to this need, we have established a comprehensive global consumption database directly linked to distinct fuels within various fire danger categories. This database, featuring a spatial resolution of approximately 300 meters, builds upon the foundations of the Pettinari, M. Lucrecia (2015) Global Fuelbed database, a global fuel map with standardized Fuel Characteristic Classification System (FCCS) biomass parameters. Consumption is broken down into five Fire Danger categories (Low, Moderate, High, Very High, Extreme), for both ‘new’ and ‘residual’ burning scenarios. We define ‘residual burned area’ as area burning in a region that has burned on a previous day for the same fire season, and ‘new burned area’ as area burning in a region that has not recently burned. This product serves as a valuable tool when used in conjunction with burned area data to rapidly estimate the carbon consumed and released into the atmosphere. Previously, we developed a similar emissions method utilizing satellite information, in conjunction with the FCCS 30-meter United States fuelbed dataset. We implemented this approach on fires, documented during the 2019 Fire Influence on Regional to Global Environments and Air Quality (FIREX-AQ) campaign to estimate daily carbon emissions. Our emissions estimates were rigorously compared against in-situ measurements of CO2, CO, and black carbon aerosols, revealing a robust agreement between the two datasets.

Emily Gargulinski↗

DOE OSTI2024

Product Innovation to Increase Low-to-Moderate-Income Customers' Adoption of Community Solar PV

This study aims to comprehensively analyze community solar project preferences for consumers and suppliers by conducting three distinct analyses. First we analyze the predictors of community solar contract adoption to understand how individual priorities affect the probability of adoption. Using an original data set of survey responses from potential community solar customers, we analyzed the predictors of contract adoption by employing a weighted logit model. We find that individuals who were previously familiar with community solar projects were significantly more likely to adopt than those who were not familiar. Secondly, a survey of community solar developers and financiers identified industry perceived barriers to community solar access and inclusion. Thirdly, we gathered payment performance information from community solar initiatives to measure how financial risks are perceived and how they interact with customer demographics. Our study is beneficial to the public by providing insights into the drivers and barriers of community solar adoption and sheds light on the importance of understanding individual priorities in designing effective community solar policies. The community solar industry has changed significantly since the beginning of this project. The industry continues to grow at a rapid rate, with an additional 7 gigawatts expected to come online between 2022 and 2027. With federal pressure to meet climate goals, as the harms of climate change continue to impact everybody, legislators are looking to community solar as a method to achieving their states energy policy goals. These new policies that push for low-to-moderate inclusion, coupled with the increase in community solar capacity illustrate a new era for the community solar industry. A number of policies have arisen in the last few months that push for more inclusive practices including the groundbreaking Solar for All program run by the EPA. The research created a “best practice” contract that can then be used, in conjunction with the manuscript and validated study, to pitch the industry on a more inclusive community solar product.

14 SOLAR ENERGY↗

DOE OSTI2020

CPAP Ventilators Needed for Rapid Response to COVID-19 by Modification of CPAP Equipment

Early on in the COVID-19 pandemic, potential ventilator shortages were a critical issue identified by national health care providers. Capacity modeling at the time suggested patient demand may exceed ventilator supply. Thus, the challenge became finding an urgent interim solution to meet health care needs. Our initial hypothesis was that CPAP technology could be modified to provide similar functionality to a ventilator, relieving demand and allowing physicians to decide which patients need high end machines, ultimately saving lives. In conjunction with medical experts and pulmonologists, we were able to identify three key thrusts associated with this research problem: (1) modification of CPAP technology to allow for 02 input that would be capable of providing ventilation; (2) development of an alarming function that would provide real-time audible alarms to alert medical personnel to critical conditions, which would be used inline with CPAP technology; and (3) a method of sterilizing expiratory air from such a system in order to protect medical personnel from biohazard, since CPAPs vent to the atmosphere. We were unable to realize results for thrust 1 (CPAP modification for 02); we identified potential safety issues associated with utilizing medical grade oxygen with a common CPAP device. In order to characterize and mitigate these issues, we would need to partner closely with a device manufacturer; such a partnership could not be achieved in the timeframe needed for this rapid response work. However, we determined that some medical grade BiPAP devices do not need this modification and that the significant progress on thrusts 2 and 3 would be sufficient to buy down risk of a massive ventilator shortage. Our team built a prototype alarm system that can be utilized with any assistive respiratory device to alert on all key conditions identified by medical personnel (high pressure, low pressure, apnea, loss of power, low battery). Finally, our team made significant progress in the rapid prototyping and demonstration of an inline UV air purifier device. The device is cost efficient and can be manufactured at scale with both commercially available and additively manufactured parts. Initial tests with SARS-CoV-2 analog bacteriophage MS2 show 99% efficacy at reducing bioburden. Following a successful demonstration of the prototype device with medical personnel, we were able to obtain follow-on (non-LDRD) funding to provide additional device characterization, validation, and production in order to respond to an immediate regional need.

42 ENGINEERING↗

NASA NTRS2018

Creating a Voyager Thermal Model 39 Years Into the Flight Mission, Along with Model Correlation and Application

After 39 years of continuous operation in space, the output of the Voyager 1 & 2 spacecraft RTG power systems has decreased to the point where managing the power margin and maintaining thermal control has become increasingly difficult. As the total power dissipation in the bus has decreased, propellant line temperatures and margin above minimum AFTs have decreased, creating risk of the hydrazine freezing (at 1.6°C). This is further complicated by the lack of existing thermal models that can be used to assess propellant tank and line temperatures. In 2014, an effort was begun to create a Voyager spacecraft thermal model for that purpose.A steady-state Thermal Desktop model has been created from scratch over the past two years. The initial thermal model development was started by Applied Sciences Laboratory (ASL) under contract to JPL. The effort relied primarily on archived manufacturing drawings, limited documentation, interviews of senior engineers who worked on the Voyager design and implementation, and the experience of the Voyager Flight Operations team.Data from the Voyager System Thermal Vacuum tests is no longer available, making it necessary to correlate the model to more recent flight data and small in-flight tests. Correlation was achieved to within ±5°C for a hot case and a cold case (both data sets from 2014). However, the flight system has very few temperature sensors directly on propellant lines. So the task remains to determine how best to use the model, in conjunction with flight data, to make sure the Voyagers can continue to fly successfully. How does one go about creating a thermal model for a spacecraft that is already launched, has limited existing mechanical description files, no thermal model in order to do a maneuver that was never planned when the spacecraft was designed?

Ledeboer, William C.↗

NASA NTRS2008

Advanced Lithium-Ion Cell Development for NASA's Constellation Missions

The Energy Storage Project of NASA s Exploration Technology Development Program is developing advanced lithium-ion batteries to meet the requirements for specific Constellation missions. NASA GRC, in conjunction with JPL and JSC, is leading efforts to develop High Energy and Ultra High Energy cells for three primary Constellation customers: Altair, Extravehicular Activities (EVA), and Lunar Surface Systems. The objective of the High Energy cell development is to enable a battery system that can operationally deliver approximately 150 Wh/kg for 2000 cycles. The Ultra High Energy cell development will enable a battery system that can operationally deliver 220 Wh/kg for 200 cycles. To accomplish these goals, cathode, electrolyte, separator, and safety components are being developed for High Energy Cells. The Ultra High Energy cell development adds lithium alloy anodes to the component development portfolio to enable much higher cell-level specific energy. The Ultra High Energy cell development is targeted for the ascent stage of Altair, which is the Lunar Lander, and for power for the Portable Life support System of the EVA Lunar spacesuit. For these missions, mass is highly critical, but only a limited number of cycles are required. The High Energy cell development is primarily targeted for Mobility Systems (rovers) for Lunar Surface Systems, however, due to the high risk nature of the Ultra High Energy cell development, the High Energy cell will also serve as a backup technology for Altair and EVA. This paper will discuss mission requirements and the goals of the material, component, and cell development efforts in further detail.

Reid, Concha M.↗

NASA NTRS2020

Alaska Transportation & Infrastructure - Identifying Permafrost Subsidence Using NASA Earth Observations to Pinpoint Road & Infrastructure Vulnerability in Fairbanks, Alaska

A rapidly warming Arctic has compromised the structural integrity of critical infrastructure through accelerated permafrost thaw and thermokarst development underlying these areas. Infrastructure, including roads, bridges, and airports across the state of Alaska are particularly at risk, as permafrost underlies ~85% of the state. However, monitoring the impacts of permafrost thaw on infrastructure is largely limited to in situ observations and frequently identified after the damage is evident. In order to assist transportation and infrastructure decision-makers in Alaska, this project identified and quantified areas of surface subsidence near critical infrastructure. Seasonal interferograms were created using Sentinel-1 C-band Synthetic Aperture Radar (SAR) and L-band Uninhabited Aerial Vehicle SAR (UAVSAR) data to identify areas experiencing surface deformation. Additionally, Light Detection and Ranging (LiDAR) datasets were used to validate select interferograms created between 2017 and 2019. Validation of subsidence detection across platforms was performed over a 7x8 sq. kilometer field site for 2017. UAVSAR and Sentinel-1 seasonal deformation returns produced consistent spatial deformation patterns with residual root mean squared errors of 13 and 21 millimeters, respectively. These results suggest that both UAVSAR and Sentinel-1 platforms are capable of detecting surface subsidence. The higher resolution of UAVSAR is better able to resolve localized subsidence features of less than 80 meters, but is limited by temporal resolution.In conjunction, UAVSAR and Sentinel-1 can provide complementary spatial and temporal resolutions for subsidence analysis in the absence of in situ data.

Patrick Saylor↗

NASA NTRS2020

Alaska Transportation & Infrastructure Identifying Permafrost Subsidence Using NASA Earth Observations to Pinpoint Road and Infrastructure Vulnerability in Fairbanks, Alaska

A rapidly warming Arctic has compromised the structural integrity of critical infrastructure through accelerated permafrost thaw and thermokarst development underlying these areas. Infrastructure, including roads, bridges, and airports across the state of Alaska are particularly at risk, as permafrost underlies ~85% of the state. However, monitoring the impacts of permafrost thaw on infrastructure is largely limited to in situ observations and frequently identified after the damage is evident. In order to assist transportation and infrastructure decision-makers in Alaska, this project identified and quantified areas of surface subsidence near critical infrastructure. Seasonal interferograms were created using Sentinel-1 C-band Synthetic Aperture Radar (SAR) and L-band Uninhabited Aerial Vehicle SAR (UAVSAR) data to identify areas experiencing surface deformation. Additionally, Light Detection and Ranging (LiDAR) datasets were used to validate select interferograms created between 2017 and 2019. Validation of subsidence detection across platforms was performed over a 7x8 sq. kilometer field site for 2017. The strongest relationship in spatial deformation is observed between Sentinel-1 and UAVSAR with a residual root mean square error of 20 mm. These results suggest that both UAVSAR and Sentinel-1 platforms are capable of detecting surface subsidence. The higher resolution of UAVSAR is better able to resolve localized subsidence features of less than 80 meters, but is limited by temporal resolution. In conjunction, UAVSAR and Sentinel-1 can provide complementary spatial and temporal resolutions for subsidence analysis in the absence of in situ data.

DEVELOP Tech Paper↗

NASA NTRS2018

Creating a Voyager Thermal Model 39 Years Into the Flight Mission, Along With Model Correlation and Application

After 39 years of continuous operation in space, the output of the Voyager 1 & 2 spacecraft Radioisotope Thermoelectric Generator (RTG) power systems has decreased to the point where managing the power margin and maintaining thermal control has become increasingly difficult. As the total power dissipation in the bus has decreased, propellant line temperatures and margin above minimum Allowable Flight Temperature (AFT) have decreased, creating risk of the hydrazine freezing (at 1.6°C). This is further complicated by the lack of existing thermal models that can be used to assess propellant tank and line temperatures. In 2014, an effort was begun to create a Voyager spacecraft thermal model for that purpose. A steady-state Thermal Desktop model has been created from scratch over the past two years. Applied Sciences Laboratory (ASL) started the initial thermal model development under contract to Jet Propulsion Laboratory (JPL). The effort relied primarily on archived manufacturing drawings, limited documentation, interviews of senior engineers who worked on the Voyager design and implementation, and the experience of the Voyager Flight Operations team. Data from the Voyager System Thermal Vacuum (STV) tests is no longer available, making it necessary to correlate the model to more recent flight data and small in-flight tests. Correlation was achieved to within ±5°C for a hot case and a cold case (both data sets from 2014). However, the flight system has very few temperature sensors directly on propellant lines. Therefore, the task remains to determine how best to use the model, in conjunction with flight data, to make sure the Voyagers can continue to fly successfully.

Ledeboer, William C.↗

DOE OSTI2022

Simulating Impacts of Extreme Events on Grids with High Penetrations of Wind Power Resources

As extreme weather events become more frequent and intense, the demand for connecting grid operation and infrastructure planning with extreme event models will increase as well. We present a methodology for creating damage contingencies and scenarios for electric transmission grids during a hurricane strike. Using WIND Toolkit meteorological data in conjunction with fragility curves for various electric grid elements, we generate stochastic damage scenarios that can be used for short- and long-term planning problems, e.g., emergency asset management. Included is an example case study: Hurricane Dolly damaging a synthetic 2000-bus test system during its landing in Southern Texas. We perform statistical analysis of damages and discuss topological effects on the example synthetic grid. Also, we include a cursory evaluation of impacts using simplified operational models. Finally, we discuss how our method can be extended to use even higher-fidelity meteorological data sets and suggest directions for future work.

contingencies↗

NASA NTRS1991

Lessons learned for composite structures

Lessons learned for composite structures are presented in three technology areas: materials, manufacturing, and design. In addition, future challenges for composite structures are presented. Composite materials have long gestation periods from the developmental stage to fully matured production status. Many examples exist of unsuccessful attempts to accelerate this gestation period. Experience has shown that technology transition of a new material system to fully matured production status is time consuming, involves risk, is expensive and should not be undertaken lightly. The future challenges for composite materials require an intensification of the science based approach to material development, extension of the vendor/customer interaction process to include all engineering disciplines of the end user, reduced material costs because they are a significant factor in overall part cost, and improved batch-to-batch pre-preg physical property control. Historical manufacturing lessons learned are presented using current in-service production structure as examples. Most producibility problems for these structures can be traced to their sequential engineering design. This caused an excessive emphasis on design-to-weight and schedule at the expense of design-to-cost. This resulted in expensive performance originated designs, which required costly tooling and led to non-producible parts. Historically these problems have been allowed to persist throughout the production run. The current/future approach for the production of affordable composite structures mandates concurrent engineering design where equal emphasis is placed on product and process design. Design for simplified assembly is also emphasized, since assembly costs account for a major portion of total airframe costs. The future challenge for composite manufacturing is, therefore, to utilize concurrent engineering in conjunction with automated manufacturing techniques to build affordable composite structures. Composite design experience has shown that significant weight savings have been achieved, outstanding fatigue and corrosion resistance have been demonstrated, and in-service performance has been very successful. Currently no structural design show stoppers exist for composite structures. A major lesson learned is that the full scale static test is the key test for composites, since it is the primary structural 'hot spot' indicator. The major durability issue is supportability of thin skinned structure. Impact damage has been identified as the most significant issue for the damage tolerance control of composite structures. However, delaminations induced during assembly operations have demonstrated a significant nuisance value. The future challenges for composite structures are threefold. Firstly, composite airframe weight fraction should increase to 60 percent. At the same time, the cost of composite structures must be reduced by 50 percent to attain the goal of affordability. To support these challenges it is essential to develop lower cost materials and processes.

Whitehead, R. S.↗

NASA NTRS2005

X-43D Conceptual Design and Feasibility Study

NASA s Next Generation Launch Technology (NGLT) Program, in conjunction with the office of the Director of Defense Research and Engineering (DDR&E), developed an integrated hypersonic technology demonstration roadmap. This roadmap is an integral part of the National Aerospace Initiative (NAI), a multi-year, multi-agency cooperative effort to invest in and develop, among other things, hypersonic technologies. This roadmap contains key ground and flight demonstrations required along the path to developing a reusable hypersonic space access system. One of the key flight demonstrations required for systems that will operate in the high Mach number regime is the X-43D. As currently conceived, the X-43D is a Mach 15 flight test vehicle that incorporates a hydrogen-fueled scramjet engine. The purpose of the X-43D is to gather high Mach number flight environment and engine operability information which is difficult, if not impossible, to gather on the ground. During 2003, the NGLT Future Hypersonic Flight Demonstration Office initiated a feasibility study on the X-43D. The objective of the study was to develop a baseline conceptual design, assess its performance, and identify the key technical issues. The study also produced a baseline program plan, schedule, and cost, along with a list of key programmatic risks.

Johnson, Donald B.↗

NASA NTRS2015

Mars Conjunction Crewed Missions With a Reusable Hybrid Architecture

A new crew Mars architecture has been developed that provides many potential benefits for NASA-led human Mars moons and surface missions beginning in the 2030s or 2040s. By using both chemical and electric propulsion systems where they are most beneficial and maintaining as much orbital energy as possible, the Hybrid spaceship that carries crew round trip to Mars is pre-integrated before launch and can be delivered to orbit by a single launch. After check-out on the way to cis-lunar space, it is refueled and can travel round trip to Mars in less than 1100 days, with a minimum of 300 days in Mars vicinity (opportunity dependent). The entire spaceship is recaptured into cis-lunar space and can be reused. The spaceship consists of a habitat for 4 crew attached to the Hybrid propulsion stage which uses long duration electric and chemical in-space propulsion technologies that are in use today. The hybrid architecture's con-ops has no in-space assembly of the crew transfer vehicle and requires only rendezvous of crew in a highly elliptical Earth orbit for arrival at and departure from the spaceship. The crew transfer vehicle does not travel to Mars so it only needs be able to last in space for weeks and re-enter at lunar velocities. The spaceship can be refueled and resupplied for multiple trips to Mars (every other opportunity). The hybrid propulsion stage for crewed transits can also be utilized for cargo delivery to Mars every other opportunity in a reusable manner to pre-deploy infrastructure required for Mars vicinity operations. Finally, the Hybrid architecture provides evolution options for mitigating key long-duration space exploration risks, including crew microgravity and radiation exposure.

Merrill, Raymond G.↗

NASA NTRSDate not supplied

Developing Mars-Based Clinical Scenarios for an Earth Independent Medical Operations (EIMO) – Based Decision Support Service

As crewed missions move beyond Low-Earth Orbit, pre-mission planning cannot fully buy down the medical risks of exploration-class missions. Martian missions, where increased hazards exist, (such as long-duration spaceflight, surface-level EVA operations, and communications delays) will require a paradigm shift in the structure of a medical system. An Earth-Independent Medical Operations-based Medical System (EIMO-MS) will need to optimize four critical domains to help provide medical care: utilization of Pre-Mission Planning, augmentation of Acute and Prolonged Medical Decision Making, automated tracking of Resource Management, and assistance in Task Load Balance. The ideal EIMO-MS will be able to accomplish this goal by having an interactive, adaptable interface that will be able to provide real-time medical services. It must respond based on the level of crewmember training, medical situation, and available medical and non-medical resources. To showcase the capabilities and requirements of such a sophisticated automated MS, a series of clinical scenarios of escalating complexity were developed with clinical and systems engineering input. These scenarios describe in clinical detail what a theoretical future medical system, enhanced with multiple information streams (such as a medical database, an AI-based Decision Support System, real-time monitoring, enhanced in-situ laboratory imaging, etc.) can achieve in conjunction with a trained and experienced crew. Scenarios are comprised of: a context section including objectives and applicable spaceflight environment, a highlighted assumptions section, a clinical narrative section, and a systems engineering activity diagram demonstrating the integrated Medical System (MS). The “swim lanes” of the activity diagram act as the logistical core of each scenario and show how the MS will interact with the crew, ground support, and other in-flight systems. The Design Reference Mission that is used for the scenarios is based on existing reference mission profiles [1] with a projected 30-sol stay on the Martian surface. Scenarios span the spectrum from planned evaluations, minor medical care, urgent care, surgical guidance, critical and expectant management, and behavioral health care. Mission complexity will exponentially increase during deep space and Mars exploration-class missions, and medical support for these missions will likewise need to increase in autonomy and adaptability. The integrated system that will support these missions will need to provide assistance in a variety of anticipated and unforeseen scenarios. These medical scenarios, guided by clinician input, are initial steps in crafting the requirements for an EIMO-based medical system. By working in a systems engineering framework, requirements and capabilities can be extracted and mapped while maintaining a clinical core.

Prashant Parmar↗