Search NASA⌕ Search

SEARCH · Search NASA

Results for “cost model validation”

Search indexed NASA NTRS and DOE OSTI research on propulsion, heat transfer, battery materials and energy systems. Follow report and document links to the original sources.

Quote a phrase for an exact phrase match. Source license links do not imply unrestricted reuse.

At least 325 records · Page 18
All sourcesNASA NTRSDOE OSTI
DOE OSTI2021

Predicting measures of soil health using the microbiome and supervised machine learning

Soil health encompasses a range of biological, chemical, and physical soil properties that sustain the commercial and ecological value of agroecosystems. Monitoring soil health requires a comprehensive set of diagnostics that can be cost-prohibitive for routine analyses. The soil microbiome provides a rich source of information about soil properties, which can be assayed in a high-throughput, cost-effective way. We evaluated the accuracy of random forest (RF) and support vector machine (SVM) regression and classification models in predicting 12 measures of soil health, tillage status, and soil texture from 16S rRNA gene amplicon data with an operationally relevant sample set. We validated the efficacy of the best performing models against independent datasets and also tested best practices for processing microbiome data for use in machine learning. Soil health metrics could be predicted from microbiome data with the best models achieving a Kappa value of ~0.65, for categorical assessments, and a R2 value of ~0.8, for numerical scores. Biological health ratings were better predicted than chemical or physical ratings. Validation with independent datasets revealed that models had general predictive value for soil properties, including yield. The ecological profiles of several taxa important for model accuracy matched the observed relationships with soil health, including Pyrinomonadaceae, Nitrososphaeraceae, and Candidatus Udeaobacter. Models trained at the highest taxonomic resolution proved most accurate, with losses in accuracy resulting from rarefying, sparsity filtering, and aggregating at higher taxonomic ranks. Furthermore, our study provides the groundwork for developing scalable technology to use microbiome-based diagnostics for the assessment of soil health.

16S rRNA gene↗
DOE OSTI2023

Multi-site reaction dynamics through multi-fragment density matrix embedding

The practical description of disordered chemical reactions, where the reactions involve multiple species at multiple sites, is presently a challenge using correlated electronic structure methods due to their high computational cost and steep scaling. Here, we describe the gradient theory of multi-fragment density matrix embedding theory, which potentially provides a minimal computational framework to model such processes at the correlated electron level. We present the derivation and implementation of the gradient theory, its validation on model systems and chemical reactions using density matrix embedding, and its application to a molecular dynamics simulation of proton transport in a small water cluster, a simple example of multi-site reaction dynamics.

Chemistry↗
DOE OSTI2025

Validation of a Co-Optimized, Smart Hybrid Heat Pump Control

This study examines a residential dual fuel (DF) heating system that integrates heat pump and gas furnace technology with a home’s forced-air distribution ducts. Specifically, it explores a retrofit where an “add-on” heat pump replaces the air conditioning (A/C) system and is combined with the home’s existing furnace and air handler. The research team developed and validated an innovative control scheme for this integrated DF system that selected the more economical heating source (furnace or heat pump) while maintaining comfort in the home. The project’s field study and subsequent modeling analysis show that this control scheme can decrease energy use, cost, and emissions compared to a furnace-only system. As homes in mixed and cold climates transition to more electric space heating, furnace-to-dual fuel system retrofits offer a solution that can alleviate the retrofit costs, energy cost concerns, and peak load impacts of full electrification.

32 ENERGY CONSERVATION, CONSUMPTION, AND UTILIZATI↗
DOE OSTI2021

Real-Time Dispatch With Secondary Frequency Regulation: A Pathway to Consider Intra-Interval Fluctuations

Real-time dispatch balances the power demand with minimized operating costs. For the current dispatch model, the demand is assumed to be constant within a time interval, while the intra-interval power balance is left to frequency regulation. Based on practical experience and simulations, this behavior may lead to insufficient frequency regulation and uneconomic regulation costs considering the increase in intra-interval fluctuations caused by renewables. Here, a real-time dispatch method with secondary frequency regulation behaviors is proposed. Without changing the interval of the real-time dispatch command, the system regulation mileage and intra-interval generation adjustment are explicitly formulated in a mixed-integer optimization model. To reduce the computational burden, an efficient two-stage calculation method is proposed. With practical utility data, this article finds that the proposed method can effectively improve the system frequency performance with the subminute net load forecasting curve obtained by an off-the-shelf forecasting approach. Time-domain simulations in IEEE and practical utility systems validate the effectiveness of the proposed method in terms of the frequency performance and total operating costs.

24 POWER TRANSMISSION AND DISTRIBUTION↗
DOE OSTI2021

A functional modeling approach for quality assurance in metal additive manufacturing

Purpose: Due to the complexity of and variations in additive manufacturing (AM) processes, there is a level of uncertainty that creates critical issues in quality assurance (QA), which must be addressed by time-consuming and cost-intensive tasks. This deteriorates the process repeatability, reliability and part reproducibility. So far, many AM efforts have been performed in an isolated and scattered way over several decades. Here, a systematically integrated holistic view is proposed to achieve QA for AM. Design/methodology/approach: A systematically integrated view is presented to ensure the predefined part properties before/during/after the AM process. It consists of four stages, namely, QA plan, prospective validation, concurrent validation and retrospective validation. As a foundation for QA planning, a functional workflow and the required information flows are proposed by using functional design models: Icam DEFinition for Function Modeling. Findings: The functional design model of the QA plan provides the systematically integrated view that can be the basis for inspection of AM processes for the repeatability and qualification of AM parts for reproducibility. Research limitations/implications: A powder bed fusion process was used to validate the feasibility of this QA plan. Feasibility was demonstrated under many assumptions; real validation is not included in this study. Social implications: This study provides an innovative and transformative methodology that can lead to greater productivity and improved quality of AM parts across industries. Furthermore, the QA guidelines and functional design models provide the foundation for the development of a QA architecture and management system. Originality/value: This systematically integrated view and the corresponding QA plan can pose fundamental questions to the AM community and initiate new research efforts in the in-situ digital inspection of AM processes and parts.

36 MATERIALS SCIENCE↗
DOE OSTI2020

Absorber Column CFD model validation against PNNL’s device-scale absorber column on the LCFS unit

Absorber column has been widely used for CO 2 capture in the coal-fired power plants. High-fidelity CFD models play an important role in absorber column design and solvents optimization, which help enhance the CO 2 capture efficiency and reduce the operation cost. This report provides a comprehensive description of the development of CFD absorber models at two different levels, the design and implementation of PNNL’s device-scale absorber column experiment, and the methodology to combine the CFD results, experiment data, and Aspen model for a better understanding of the interface area in packed column. A composite model is firstly proposed in the Discrete Element Method (DEM) packing process, which can model the complex geometry of various packing elements. This generates a realistic packing pattern and accurate packing porosity ε and specific area a p compared to the actual values for absorber column used in LCFS. Two level of CFD absorber models were developed, namely the full-size column model (FCM) to simulate the entire packed column with a focus on the wall/entrance effects, and the representative column model (RCM) to simulate a section of column with a focus on the sensitivity study of interface area. A Design of Experiment (DoE) plan was developed to guide the collection of 100 run CFD data and 12 experiment runs. The 100 CFD runs were carried out in the RCM with Pro-Pak packing and cover a wide operation range and solvent properties. Impact of influential factors on the interface area in packed column were investigated in details. The CFD interface area was then combined with the experimental data and Aspen model to infer some information of the effective contact angle in the column. The accuracy and uncertainties in the interface area and contact angle can be quantified.

01 COAL, LIGNITE, AND PEAT↗
DOE OSTI2021

Comparative and Cost Analysis of a Novel Predictive Power Ramp Rate Control Method: A Case Study in a PV Power Plant in Puerto Rico

One of the most important aspects that need to be addressed to increase solar energy penetration is the power ramp-rate control. In weak grids such as the one found in Puerto Rico, it is important to smooth power fluctuations caused by the intermittence of passing clouds. In this work, a novel power ramp-rate control strategy is proposed. Additionally, a comparison with some of the most common power ramp-rate control methods is performed using a proposed model and real solar radiation data from the Coto Laurel photovoltaic power plant located in Ponce, Puerto Rico. The proposed model was validated using one-year real data from Coto Laurel. The power ramp-rate control methods were compared in real-time simulations using the OP5700 from Opal-RT Technologies considering power ramp rate fluctuations, power ramp-rate violations, fluctuations in the state-of-charge, among other indicators. Moreover, the proposed power ramp-rate control strategy, called predictive dynamic smoothing was explained and compared. Results indicate that the predictive dynamic smoothing produced a considerably reduced Levelized Cost of Storage compared to other power ramp-rate control methods and provided a higher lifetime expectancy for lithium batteries.

36 MATERIALS SCIENCE↗
DOE OSTI2023

Automatic Building Energy Modeling (AutoBEM)

AutoBEM provides automated building energy modeling for quantifying energy, demand, emissions, and cost reductions for over 1 million buildings per hour. It creates a digital twin energy model of a building from a set of descriptors. Benefits include: Scale - has been used to simulate every building in the U.S. Speed - fastest creation and simulation of energy models for buildings. Accuracy - validated against 15-minute data for 178,000 buildings as well as multiple cities.

New, JoshuaR↗
DOE OSTI2020

GIS-Based Modeling of Contaminated Soil Volumes at Multiple Sites in the Formerly Utilized Sites Remedial Action Program - 20149

The remediation of hazardous, toxic, and radioactive waste (HTRW) sites produces cost-related risks associated with the estimation of contaminated soil or debris volumes. Historical risk-management techniques include cost contingencies to cover volume uncertainties that affect project budgeting and decision-making. The Buffalo District teamed with project partners to lessen volume uncertainty and reduce project risks at multiple HTRW sites managed under the Formerly Utilized Sites Remedial Action Program (FUSRAP). Historical remedial investigations under FUSRAP commonly identified the presence of radiological material in site media, the associated human health risk, and then areas of remediation. To manage remedial execution and reduce risk, pre-design or remediation-phase sampling essentially 'chased' contamination, which was not conducive to efficient predictive budgeting derived from Feasibility Study (FS) cost analyses. The Buffalo District first optimized their approach to better understand volume uncertainty by utilizing the Argonne National Laboratory's Bayesian Approaches for Adaptive Spatial Sampling (BAASS) software [1]. BAASS processed soft data (e.g., gamma walk-over data) and spatial sampling data to estimate the lateral extent of contaminated soil irrespective of depth (i.e., gross contamination extent) and define areas of contaminant uncertainty. The software performed a binary transformation of contaminant concentrations at all sampling points based upon remedial action goals or a sum of ratios approach (i.e., clean, impacted, or range of impacts in soil). The model produced two-dimensional (horizontal) contaminant probability contours and statistical uncertainty in the sampling coverage and resulting contaminant extents. This method was translated vertically by partitioning the sampling data into depth brackets that produced a stacked representation of contaminant extents and uncertainty in the subsurface (i.e., similar to construction lifts). The results commonly led to a better understanding of project uncertainty and the need for sampling strategies that produce high-confidence soil volumes, which control costs. The BAASS-based delineations were eventually replaced by Empirical Bayesian Kriging (EBK) methods available in ArcGIS Spatial or 3D Analysts [2]. The EBK method calculates contaminant probability zones derived from user-controlled semivariograms of the spatial datasets. The resulting probability zones (e.g., 50% or 80% of contaminant probability) represent the two-dimensional surface delineation of the overall horizontal remedial area, similarly to BAASS. However, unlike BAASS, the vertical sampling data within these probability zones became vertical control points to contour a subterranean surface that connects subsurface points to the land-surface delineations of contamination. The resulting representation of horizontal and vertical impacts within an enclosed envelop (volume) of soil included uncertainty distributions that are used to plan uncertainty-reduction sampling. These data-driven and math-based models of three-dimensional sampling results produced well-bounded remedial volumes for project planning and better uncertainty predictions during project budgeting. The EBK method was applied to several FUSRAP sites managed by the Buffalo District and compared to less rigorously modeled sites previously remediated by the District. The comparison of modeled to actual remediated volumes provide a basis for validating the volume-estimation method. This comparison is important to ensure modeled volumes match physical boundaries of site remediation. FUSRAP sites with denser investigative sampling and lesser volume uncertainty proved useful in remedial planning and contracting. The Buffalo District noted that historical sites with sparser sampling arrays had greater disparity between estimated volumes and final remedial volumes. The benefit achieved over the cost of detailed soil sampling appears positive for FUSRAP projects, especially where impacts vary widely and appear unbounded by investigation-phase sampling. The subsequent Empirical Bayesian Kriging of contamination coupled with vertical contouring for soil estimations reduces uncertainty in soil volumes or indicates where sampling is required to reduce uncertainty, which together optimize remedial planning and budgeting. (authors)

12 MANAGEMENT OF RADIOACTIVE AND NON-RADIOACTIVE W↗
DOE OSTI2022

Plant biomass fermentation by the extreme thermophile Caldicellulosiruptor bescii for co-production of green hydrogen and acetone: Technoeconomic analysis

A variety of chemical and biological processes have been proposed for conversion of sustainable low-cost feedstocks into industrial products. Here, a biorefinery concept is formulated, modeled, and analyzed in which a naturally (hemi)cellulolytic and extremely thermophilic bacterium, Caldicellulosiruptor bescii, is metabolically engineered to convert the carbohydrate content of lignocellulosic biomasses (i.e., soybean hulls, transgenic poplar) into green hydrogen and acetone. Experimental validation of C. bescii fermentative performance demonstrated 82% carbohydrate solubilization of soybean hulls and 55% for transgenic poplar. A detailed technical design, including equipment specifications, provides the basis for an economic analysis that establishes metabolic engineering targets. This robust industrial process leveraging metabolically engineered C. bescii yields 206 kg acetone and 25 kg H 2 per metric ton of soybean hull, or 174 kg acetone and 21 kg H 2 per metric ton transgenic poplar. Beyond this specific case, the model demonstrates industrial feasibility and economic advantages of thermophilic fermentation.

32 ENERGY CONSERVATION, CONSUMPTION, AND UTILIZATI↗
DOE OSTI2021

Modeling the performance and faradaic efficiency of solid oxide electrolysis cells using doped barium zirconate perovskite electrolytes

Y-doped BaZrO 3 (BaZr 1 x Y x O 3 δ , or “BZY”), a proton-conducting ceramic featuring high bulk conductivity and good chemical stability, is a promising electrolyte material for solid oxide electrolysis cells. Further doping with Ce and/or Yb (creating materials “BCZY” and “BCZYYb”) can improve conductivity and sintering properties, but at significant penalty to cells’ faradaic efficiency (FE). Studies have proposed that reduction of lattice Ce can occur in the hydrogen electrode, which consumes some hydrogen produced by the hydrogen evolution reaction, leading to decreased FE. Despite studies suggesting this phenomenon, the mechanism is largely unknown. In this work, we developed a multiphysics model to study the transport of multiple defect species and the performance of BZY, BCZY, and BCZYYb, capturing the tradeoff between enhanced performance at the cost of FE for BCZY and BCZYYb electrolytes compared to BZY. We also found that increasing the water content of the anode gas supply lowers the current output of the cell but results in better FE. The model, which uses several parameters previously unavailable in the literature, was validated to experiments varying temperature, steam water content, and electrolyte material, as well as two performance metrics (performance curves and FE). Results verify and explain observed trends, informing future work on Ce-doped BZY electrolytes.

08 HYDROGEN↗
DOE OSTI2024

Experimental Safe Extremum Seeking for Accelerators

Here, we demonstrate the recent designs of safe extremum seeking (Safe ES) on the 1-km-long charged particle accelerator at the Los Alamos Neutron Science Center (LANSCE). Safe ES is a modification of extremum seeking (ES) which, in addition to minimizing an analytically unknown cost, also employs a safety filter based on an analytically unknown control barrier function (CBF) safety metric. Tuning is necessitated by accelerators being large complex systems, with many drifting parameters due to thermal effects and degradation. At the same time, safe operation (the maintenance of state constraints) is crucial, as damage brings astronomical costs, both financially and in operation downtime. Our measured (but analytically unknown) safety metric is the beam current. We perform multivariable Safe ES on three accelerator applications, in which we adapt 4, 6, and 3 magnet strength parameters, respectively. Two of the three applications are for validated simulation models of beamlines at LANSCE: the first for the proton radiography (pRad) beamline of 800-MeV protons for spot size tuning; the second on a high-performance code, HPSim, for tuning the low-energy beam transport (LEBT) region that contains a beam of 750-keV protons. The third is an experimental tuning of the steering magnets in the LEBT at LANSCE.

43 PARTICLE ACCELERATORS↗
DOE OSTI2024

Scalable and Highly-Efficient Microbial Electrochemical Reactor for Hydrogen Generation from Wastes

The overall goal of this project was to develop a scalable and highly efficient hybrid microbial electrochemical reactor for hydrogen recovery from waste streams at a cost of less than $\$$2/kg H₂. The specific objectives were: (1) to design and fabricate a scalable and highly efficient microbial electrochemical cell (MEC) reactor, and (2) to determine the techno-economic feasibility of the system for H₂ generation from organic-rich waste streams. We achieved the first objective by (a) developing low-cost electrode materials, (b) synthesizing a highly efficient cathode catalyst in a scalable manner, (c) evaluating and validating the developed electrode material and catalyst in MEC reactors, and (d) designing and fabricating a larger reactor that incorporates (a) to (c). We met the second objective by (a) identifying the impacts of wastewater composition and operational conditions on H₂ production, and (b) developing a cost-performance model that identified critical parameters affecting the system's performance and cost, providing a pathway for further improvement.

08 HYDROGEN↗
DOE OSTI2025

Dynamic Analysis of a Six-Cable Parallel Robot for Automated Panelized Building Retrofits

Cable-Driven Parallel Robots (CDPRs) are highly suitable for automated panelized building retrofits, thanks to their compact footprint and high payload-to-weight ratio. A common CDPR configuration featuring eight cables, where the anchors form a rectangular prism in front of the building facade, offers a large wrench feasible workspace and good control versatility. However, installing upper anchor points requires additional support structures, such as towers or beams, increasing setup complexity and posing logistical challenges in construction settings. To mitigate these challenges, we propose a six-cable CDPR model specifically designed for automated panelized building retrofits. Although the feasible workspace is limited, our analysis shows that the proposed CDPR adequately covers the critical areas required for panel installation. To validate that the six-cable system can effectively transport the end effector to the desired installation pose, we calculated optimal trajectories based on a constrained dynamic model. The simulation results of the six-cable CDPR demonstrate promising potential for automated panelized building retrofits, effectively balancing simplicity, cost-effectiveness, and functionality.

Liu, Yifang [ORNL] (ORCID:0000000190817417)↗
DOE OSTI2024

Efficient general method for numerically modeling laser pulse propagation, overlap, and lifetime effects in amplifiers

An efficient numerical time-dependent general method is developed to address incoherent pulse overlap and lifetime effects in laser amplifiers. The alternating propagation-population laser energetics method (APPLE) has been validated against a semi-discrete coupled rate equation numerical method (SDRE) and analytic formalisms in bounding cases. APPLE is based on decoupled rates applied to a time-dependent framework where both space-time-dependent populations and pulse energetics are consistently updated in each time step. A significant advantage of APPLE lies in its conceptual simplicity, ease of implementation, and relatively small computational cost. SDRE tracks the populations through coupled rates and uses the method of lines to discretize the hyperbolic partial differential transport equations allowing for use of ordinary differential equation solvers. With reasonably sized mesh, we report both energetic and power pulse shape relative differences on the order of one percent between the models over a large range of initial conditions.

47 OTHER INSTRUMENTATION↗
DOE OSTI2020

Advances in Kriging-Based Autonomous X-Ray Scattering Experiments

Autonomous experimentation is an emerging paradigm for scientific discovery, wherein measurement instruments are augmented with decision-making algorithms, allowing them to autonomously explore parameter spaces of interest. We have recently demonstrated a generalized approach to autonomous experimental control, based on generating a surrogate model to interpolate experimental data, and a corresponding uncertainty model, which are computed using a Gaussian process regression known as ordinary Kriging (OK). We demonstrated the successful application of this method to exploring materials science problems using x-ray scattering measurements at a synchrotron beamline. Here, we report several improvements to this methodology that overcome limitations of traditional Kriging methods. The variogram underlying OK is global and thus insensitive to local data variation. We augment the Kriging variance with model-based measures, for instance providing local sensitivity by including the gradient of the surrogate model. As with most statistical regression methods, OK minimizes the number of measurements required to achieve a particular model quality. However, in practice this may not be the most stringent experimental constraint; e.g. the goal may instead be to minimize experiment duration or material usage. We define an adaptive cost function, allowing the autonomous method to balance information gain against measured experimental cost. We provide synthetic and experimental demonstrations, validating that this improved algorithm yields more efficient autonomous data collection.

36 MATERIALS SCIENCE↗
DOE OSTI2026

Improving ideal MHD equilibrium accuracy with physics-informed neural networks

We present a novel approach to compute three-dimensional magnetohydrodynamic equilibria with isotropic pressure profiles and nested surfaces by parametrizing Fourier modes with artificial neural networks (NNs). The full nonlinear global force residual of single equilibria across the volume in real space is then minimized with first order optimizers and compared to equilibria computed by conventional solvers. Already, we observe competitive computational cost to arrive at the same minimum residuals computable with existing codes. With increased computational cost, lower minima of the residual are computable with the NNs than with any other tested solver, establishing a new lower bound for the force residual. We use minimally complex NNs, and we expect significant improvements for solving not only single equilibria with NNs, but also for creating NN models valid over continuous distributions of equilibria.

ideal magnetohydrodynamics↗
DOE OSTI2025

Quantum simulations of nuclear resonances with variational methods

Background: The many-body nature of nuclear physics problems poses significant computational challenges. These challenges become even more pronounced when studying the resonance states of nuclear systems, which are governed by the non-Hermitian Hamiltonian. Quantum computing, particularly for quantum many-body systems, offers a promising alternative, especially within the constraints of current noisy intermediate-scale quantum (NISQ) devices. Purpose: This work aims to simulate nuclear resonances using quantum algorithms by developing a variational framework compatible with non-Hermitian Hamiltonians and implementing it fully on a quantum simulator. Methods: We employ the complex scaling technique to extract resonance positions classically and adapt it for quantum simulations using a two-step algorithm. First, we transform the non-Hermitian Hamiltonian into a Hermitian form by using the energy variance as a cost function within a variational framework. Second, we perform 𝜃-trajectory calculations to determine optimal resonance positions in the complex energy plane. To address resource constraints on NISQ devices, we utilize Gray code (GC) encoding to reduce qubit requirements. Results: We first validate our approach using a schematic potential model that mimics a nuclear potential, successfully reproducing known resonance energies with high fidelity. We then extend the method to a more realistic 𝛼−𝛼 nuclear potential and compute the 𝐷- and 𝐺-wave resonance energies with a basis size of 𝑁=16, using only four qubits. The quantum simulation results closely match the classical values, demonstrating the feasibility of our approach. Conclusions: This study demonstrates, for the first time, that the complete 𝜃-trajectory method can be implemented on a quantum computer without relying on any classical input beyond the Hamiltonian. The results establish a scalable and efficient quantum framework for simulating resonance phenomena in nuclear systems. This work represents a significant step toward quantum simulations of open quantum systems and lays the foundation for future investigations into resonance structures in nuclear, atomic, and molecular physics.

73 NUCLEAR PHYSICS AND RADIATION PHYSICS↗