SEARCH · Search NASA

Results for “cost sensitivity analysis”

Search indexed NASA NTRS and DOE OSTI research on propulsion, heat transfer, battery materials and energy systems. Follow report and document links to the original sources.

SourceResearch connectionFrom yearThrough year

Quote a phrase for an exact phrase match. Source license links do not imply unrestricted reuse.

At least 325 records · Page 18

All sources NASA NTRS DOE OSTI

NASA NTRS2016

Assessing the Impact of Operational Constraints on the Near-Term Unmanned Aircraft System Traffic Management Supported Market

An economic impact market analysis was conducted for 16 leading sectors of commercial Unmanned Aerial System (UAS) applications predicted to be enabled by 2020 through the NASA UAS Traffic Management (UTM) program. Subject matter experts from seven industries were interviewed to validate concept of operations (ConOps) and market adoption assumptions for each sector. The market analysis was used to estimate direct economic impacts for each sector including serviceable addressable market, capital investment, revenue recovery potential, and operations cost savings. The resultant economic picture distinguishes the agricultural, pipeline and railroad inspection, construction, and maritime sectors of the nascent commercial UAS industry as providing the highest potential economic value in the United States. Sensitivity studies characterized the variability of select UAS sectors economic value to key regulatory or UTM ConOps requirements such as weight, altitude, and flight over populated area constraints. Takeaways from the analysis inform the validation of UTM requirements, technologies and timetables from a commercial market need and value viewpoint. This work concluded in August 2015 and reflects the state of the UAS industry and market projections at that time.

Air Traffic Management↗

NASA NTRS1985

A sensitivity analysis of central flat-plate photovoltaic systems and implications for national photovoltaics program planning

The sensitivity of the National Photovoltaic Research Program goals to changes in individual photovoltaic system parameters is explored. Using the relationship between lifetime cost and system performance parameters, tests were made to see how overall photovoltaic system energy costs are affected by changes in the goals set for module cost and efficiency, system component costs and efficiencies, operation and maintenance costs, and indirect costs. The results are presented in tables and figures for easy reference.

Crosetti, M. R.↗

NASA NTRS1978

Cost benefit assessment of NASA remote sensing technology transferred to the State of Georgia

The benefits involved in the transfer of NASA remote sensing technology to eight Georgia state agencies are identified in quantifiable and qualitative terms, and a value for these benefits is computed by means of an effectiveness analysis. The benefits of the transfer are evaluated by contrasting a baseline scenario without Landsat and an alternative scenario with Landsat. The net present value of the Landsat technology being transferred is estimated at 9.5 million dollars. The estimated value of the transfer is most sensitive to discount rate, the cost of photo acquisition, and the cost of data digitalization. It is estimated that, if the budget is constrained, Landsat could provide data products roughly seven times more frequently than would otherwise be possible.

Kelly, D. L.↗

NASA NTRS2003

Probabilistic Analysis of Solid Oxide Fuel Cell Based Hybrid Gas Turbine System

The emergence of fuel cell systems and hybrid fuel cell systems requires the evolution of analysis strategies for evaluating thermodynamic performance. A gas turbine thermodynamic cycle integrated with a fuel cell was computationally simulated and probabilistically evaluated in view of the several uncertainties in the thermodynamic performance parameters. Cumulative distribution functions and sensitivity factors were computed for the overall thermal efficiency and net specific power output due to the uncertainties in the thermodynamic random variables. These results can be used to quickly identify the most critical design variables in order to optimize the design and make it cost effective. The analysis leads to the selection of criteria for gas turbine performance.

Gorla, Rama S. R.↗

DOE OSTI2025

Process design and techno-economic analysis for bio-based graphite and liquid hydrocarbons production from lignocellulosic biomass

The worldwide demand for graphite, as the main anode material for Li-ion batteries, is expected to double by 2028 since it supports the use of electricity, including transient renewable sources, for energy storage, sustainable mobility, and automation. However, the dependence on non-renewable and external resources jeopardizes the world supply chain. This study explores the technical and economic performance of transforming lignocellulosic biomass into biographite and fuel-grade hydrocarbons through pyrolysis bio-oil upgrading. According to simulation results, the total power demand for the biorefinery reached 10,784 kWh per tonne of biographite, of which 36 % can be supplied by the heat integration network and power plant. Sensitivity and risk analyses were conducted to evaluate the economics, with process yields identified as the most relevant indicators to the minimum selling price (MSP). The analysis revealed a promising cost-competitive range for biographite MSP against fossil-based graphite (medium quality synthetic graphite Chinese market price ~$\$$4.2/kg). Case D, which includes biofuels as a byproduct, presents the best metrics, reaching a MSP of $\$$3.3/kg of anode-grade biographite with a profit margin of 27 %. While including biofuels in the product slate provides the best economic performance, the uncertainty associated with the big capital investment makes its risk 13 % higher to attain an IRR >20 % than the case in which biographite is produced as a standalone product. Overall, this study demonstrates that integrated biorefineries can produce a cost-competitive bio-based anode material for Li-ion batteries.

09 BIOMASS FUELS↗

DOE OSTI2024

Field Validation of MVA Technology for Offshore CCS: Novel Ultra-High-Resolution 3D Marine Seismic Technology (P-Cable) (Final Report)

The objectives of the proposed study were to deploy and validate a specific monitoring technology, high-resolution 3D marine seismic (HR3D), appropriate for large-demonstration and commercial-scale offshore CCS sites. The project accomplished successful acquisition two HR3D seismic surveys. The first HR3D dataset was over the offshore injection site of the Tomakomai, Japan integrated pilot CCS project, which at the time of survey acquisition was actively injecting CO 2 . The first survey also represented a successful international collaboration between the DOE NETL program and Japan’s national CCS program and was the first successful acquisition and use of HR3D over an active CO 2 injection site (Meckel, Feng et al. 2019). The Tomakomai HR3D survey successfully tested a novel 4-streamer HR3D system array in which, for the first time, no cross-cable (aka “P-Cable”) was utilized and only four GeoEel streamers were used instead of the standard 12-streamer configuration. Consequently, this was not, strictly speaking, a deployment of the “P-Cable” system of (Planke and Berndt 2004) but rather a modified version, thereof, and it is the first known demonstration of the modified system configuration. One very positive outcome from the Japanese collaboration earlier in the project was the ability to learn from the Japanese how they used tail buoys with GPS to determine the position of the seismic source and receivers in time and space. Based on that experience, GCCC designed and built six GPS receivers that could be used to position the streamer receivers and the seismic source via tail buoys. A fundamental advance that was made on the original design, was the ability to directly power the tail buoy GPS units and transfer data through the streamers (i.e., vs. the batteries used at Tomakomai). The bulkiness of the GPS batteries caused drag and episodic surging of the buoys, which affected data quality by lifting up the tail end of the streamers so the receivers were not at the same depth. The units were tested onshore for accuracy and functionality, and the design was subsequently and successfully tested in marine acquisition mode during the SLP survey acquisition. The marine acquisition test and survey satisfied Subtasks 2.2.2, Novel Positioning Technology Selection and Subtask 2.2.3, Novel Positioning Technology Deployment. Results of the novel positioning technology selection (Subtask 2.2.2) were considered successful and will be incorporated in future HR3D seismic acquisition projects to reduce costs, improve deployment safety at sea, and integrate both seismic and data recording via a single data transfer through the streamers to the recording system. The project also established a permitting process through NETL NEPA compliance, which included an Environmental Assessment in a marine setting and is required for conducting these types of surveys using Federal funding. The permitting process charted a “boilerplate,” which can allow future surveys related to other funded projects to move forward more expeditiously. Future improvements that could be considered are more robust seals on the GPS module and stronger materials (especially joints) on tail buoy fabrication. These would increase fixed costs, but would be advisable and probably more economic long-term if multiple HR3D surveys are planned. Project Accomplishments include: • Pre-survey Sensitivity Study • Marine geochemistry methods and data analysis • Successful HR3D seismic dataset acquired @ Tomakomai active CO 2 injection marine site • Developed advanced seismic processing techniques • No NRMS anomalies detected in overburden; Demonstration of containment • Repeatability study • Second survey collected @ San Luis Pass, TX • 4D application using positioning techniques developed in the project for monitoring were successful

3D seismic GPS positioning↗

NASA NTRS1980

Solar energy system economic evaluation: IBM System 2, Togus, Maine

The economic analysis of the solar energy system, is developed for Torgus and four other sites typical of a wide range of environmental and economic conditions in the continental United States. This analysis is accomplished based on the technical and economic models in the f-chart design procedure with inputs taken on the characteristics of the installed system and local conditions. The results are expressed in terms of the economic parameters of present worth of system cost over a projected twenty year life, life cycle savings, year of positive savings and year of payback for the optimized solar energy system at each of the analysis sites. The sensitivity of the economic evaluation to uncertainties in constituent system and economic variables is also investigated. Results demonstrate that the solar energy system is economically viable at all of the five sites for which the analysis was conducted.

Source record↗

NASA NTRS1980

Solar energy system economic evaluation final report for SEMCO-Loxahatchee, Loxahatchee National Wildlife refuge, Palm Beach County, Florida

Economic analysis of the solar energy system installed at Loxahatchee, was developed for Loxahatchee and four other sites typical of a wide range of environmental and economic conditions in the continental United States. This analysis was accomplished based on the technical and economic models in the f Chart design procedure with inputs based on the characteristics of the installed system and local conditions. The results are expressed in terms of the economic parameters of present worth of system costs over a projected twenty year life, life cycle savings, year of positive savings and year of payback for the optimized solar energy system at each of the analysis sites. The sensitivity of the economic evaluation to uncertainties in constituent system and economic variables was also investigated. The results demonstrate that the solar energy system is economically viable at all of the five sites for which the analysis was conducted.

Source record↗

NASA NTRS1980

Solar energy system economic evaluation for Elcam-Tempe, Tempe, Arizona and Elcam-San Diego, San Diego, California

The long term economic performance of the solar energy system at its installation site is analyzed and four additional locations selected to demonstrate the viability of the design over a broad range of environmental and economic conditions. The economic analysis of the solar energy systems that were installed at Tempe, Arizona and San Diego, California, is developed for these and four other sites typical of a wide range of environmental and economic conditions in the continental United States. This analysis is accomplished based on the technical and economic models in the f Chart design procedure with inputs based on the characteristics of the installed system and local conditions. The results are expressed in terms of the economic parameters of present worth of system cost over a projected twenty year life: life cycle savings; year of positive savings; and year of payback for the optimized solar energy system at each of the analysis sites. The sensitivity of the economic evaluation to uncertainites in constituent system and economic variables is also investigated. The results demonstrate that the solar energy system is economically viable at all of the sites for which the analysis was conducted.

Source record↗

NASA NTRS1980

Solar energy system economic evaluation: IBM System 4, Clinton, Mississippi

An economic analysis of the solar energy system was developed for five sites, typical of a wide range of environmental and economic conditions in the continental United States. The analysis was based on the technical and economic models in the F-chart design procedure, with inputs based on the characteristic of the installed system and local conditions. The results are of the economic parameters of present worth of system cost over a 20 year time span: life cycle savings, year of positive savings and year of payback for the optimized solar energy system at each of the analysis sites. The sensitivity of the economic evaluation to uncertainties in constituent system and economic variables is also investigated.

Source record↗

NASA NTRS1980

Solar energy system economic evaluation for IBM System 3, Glendo, Wyoming

This analysis was based on the technical and economic models in f-chart design procedures with inputs based on the characteristics of the parameters of present worth of system cost over a projected twenty year life: life cycle savings, year of positive savings, and year of payback for the optimized solar energy system at each of the analysis sites. The sensitivity of the economic evaluation to uncertainties in constituent system and economic variables was also investigated.

Source record↗

NASA NTRS2000

Adjoint Techniques for Topology Optimization of Structures Under Damage Conditions

The objective of this cooperative agreement was to seek computationally efficient ways to optimize aerospace structures subject to damage tolerance criteria. Optimization was to involve sizing as well as topology optimization. The work was done in collaboration with Steve Scotti, Chauncey Wu and Joanne Walsh at the NASA Langley Research Center. Computation of constraint sensitivity is normally the most time-consuming step of an optimization procedure. The cooperative work first focused on this issue and implemented the adjoint method of sensitivity computation (Haftka and Gurdal, 1992) in an optimization code (runstream) written in Engineering Analysis Language (EAL). The method was implemented both for bar and plate elements including buckling sensitivity for the latter. Lumping of constraints was investigated as a means to reduce the computational cost. Adjoint sensitivity computation was developed and implemented for lumped stress and buckling constraints. Cost of the direct method and the adjoint method was compared for various structures with and without lumping. The results were reported in two papers (Akgun et al., 1998a and 1999). It is desirable to optimize topology of an aerospace structure subject to a large number of damage scenarios so that a damage tolerant structure is obtained. Including damage scenarios in the design procedure is critical in order to avoid large mass penalties at later stages (Haftka et al., 1983). A common method for topology optimization is that of compliance minimization (Bendsoe, 1995) which has not been used for damage tolerant design. In the present work, topology optimization is treated as a conventional problem aiming to minimize the weight subject to stress constraints. Multiple damage configurations (scenarios) are considered. Each configuration has its own structural stiffness matrix and, normally, requires factoring of the matrix and solution of the system of equations. Damage that is expected to be tolerated is local and represents a small change in the stiffness matrix compared to the baseline (undamaged) structure. The exact solution to a slightly modified set of equations can be obtained from the baseline solution economically without actually solving the modified system.. Shennan-Morrison-Woodbury (SMW) formulas are matrix update formulas that allow this (Akgun et al., 1998b). SMW formulas were therefore used here to compute adjoint displacements for sensitivity computation and structural displacements in damaged configurations.

Akgun, Mehmet A.↗

NASA NTRS1999

Optimization of Aerospace Structure Subject to Damage Tolerance Criteria

The objective of this cooperative agreement was to seek computationally efficient ways to optimize aerospace structures subject to damage tolerance criteria. Optimization was to involve sizing as well as topology optimization. The work was done in collaboration with Steve Scotti, Chauncey Wu and Joanne Walsh at the NASA Langley Research Center. Computation of constraint sensitivity is normally the most time-consuming step of an optimization procedure. The cooperative work first focused on this issue and implemented the adjoint method of sensitivity computation in an optimization code (runstream) written in Engineering Analysis Language (EAL). The method was implemented both for bar and plate elements including buckling sensitivity for the latter. Lumping of constraints was investigated as a means to reduce the computational cost. Adjoint sensitivity computation was developed and implemented for lumped stress and buckling constraints. Cost of the direct method and the adjoint method was compared for various structures with and without lumping. The results were reported in two papers. It is desirable to optimize topology of an aerospace structure subject to a large number of damage scenarios so that a damage tolerant structure is obtained. Including damage scenarios in the design procedure is critical in order to avoid large mass penalties at later stages. A common method for topology optimization is that of compliance minimization which has not been used for damage tolerant design. In the present work, topology optimization is treated as a conventional problem aiming to minimize the weight subject to stress constraints. Multiple damage configurations (scenarios) are considered. Each configuration has its own structural stiffness matrix and, normally, requires factoring of the matrix and solution of the system of equations. Damage that is expected to be tolerated is local and represents a small change in the stiffness matrix compared to the baseline (undamaged) structure. The exact solution to a slightly modified set of equations can be obtained from the baseline solution economically without actually solving the modified system. Sherrnan-Morrison-Woodbury (SMW) formulas are matrix update formulas that allow this. SMW formulas were therefore used here to compute adjoint displacements for sensitivity computation and structural displacements in damaged configurations.

Akgun, Mehmet A.↗

NASA NTRS2012

Development of a Robust, High Current, Low Power Field Emission Electron Gun for a Spaceflight Reflectron Time-of-Flight Mass Spectrometer

Carbon materials, including carbon nanotubes (CNTs) and nitrogen-incorporated ultrananocrystalline diamond (N-UNCD), have been of considerable interest for field emission applications for over a decade. In particular, robust field emission materials are compelling for space applications due to the low power consumption and potential for miniaturization. A reflectron time-of-flight mass spectrometer (TOF-MS) under development for in situ measurements on the Moon and other Solar System bodies uses a field emitter to generate ions from gaseous samples, using electron ionization. For these unusual environments, robustness, reliability, and long life are of paramount importance, and to this end, we have explored the field emission properties and lifetime of carbon nanotubes and nitrogen-incorporated ultrananocrystalline diamond (N-UNCD) thin films, the latter developed and patented by Argonne National Laboratory. We will present recent investigations of N-UNCD as a robust field emitter, revealing that this material offers stable performance in high vacuum for up to 1000 hours with threshold voltage for emission of about 3-4 V/lJm and current densities in the range of tens of microA. Optimizing the mass resolution and sensitivity of such a mass spectrometer has also been enabled by a parallel effort to scale up a CNT emitter to an array measuring 2 mm x 40 mm. Through simulation and experiment of the new extended format emitter, we have determined that focusing the electron beam is limited due to the angular spread of the emitted electrons. This dispersion effect can be reduced through modification of the electron gun geometry, but this reduces the current reaching the ionization region. By increasing the transmission efficiency of the electron beam to the anode, we have increased the anode current by two orders of magnitude to realize a corresponding enhancement in instrument sensitivity, at a moderate cost to mass resolution. We will report recent experimental and modeling results to describe the performance of a field emission electron gun as employed in the Volatile Analysis by Pyrolysis of Regolith (VAPoR) TOF-MS prototype.

Southard, Adrian E.↗

NASA NTRS2012

Metroplex Optimization Model Expansion and Analysis: The Airline Fleet, Route, and Schedule Optimization Model (AFRS-OM)

This report describes the Airline Fleet, Route, and Schedule Optimization Model (AFRS-OM) that is designed to provide insights into airline decision-making with regards to markets served, schedule of flights on these markets, the type of aircraft assigned to each scheduled flight, load factors, airfares, and airline profits. The main inputs to the model are hedged fuel prices, airport capacity limits, and candidate markets. Embedded in the model are aircraft performance and associated cost factors, and willingness-to-pay (i.e. demand vs. airfare curves). Case studies demonstrate the application of the model for analysis of the effects of increased capacity and changes in operating costs (e.g. fuel prices). Although there are differences between airports (due to differences in the magnitude of travel demand and sensitivity to airfare), the system is more sensitive to changes in fuel prices than capacity. Further, the benefits of modernization in the form of increased capacity could be undermined by increases in hedged fuel prices

Sherry, Lance↗

DOE OSTI2022

Design for Carbon Conversion Product Pathways with Nuclear Power Plant Integration (PCC)

Coal is a globally abundant resource that historically has been used for power generation via combustion. As the power industry replaces coal with cleaner methods of generation, energy rich coal could be used in other chemical and fuel applications. This study presents a coal utilization option in which coal combustion is replaced with a carbon-free nuclear power plant and the coal is upgraded to valuable products for a variety of markets. Coal is prepared for conversion first by the pyrolysis process, which will optimize solid, liquid, and gaseous products based on the market size and potential product value, maximizing the monetary value of coal. This process is designed using bituminous coal from the Appalachian region as a basis to provide a pathway to preserve or transition coal-related jobs and create new jobs associated with the clean energy transition. Process modeling will be used to determine each component’s sensitivities, costs, inputs, and outputs Advanced and light-water reactors are considerations to supply the heat, steam, and electricity to the process. This paper focuses on the technical and market analysis used to determine the optimal processes and product pathways for the carbon refinery. Product pathways are on activated carbon, formic acid synthesis, and methanol synthesis for further upgrading to marketable chemical and polymer products.

01 COAL, LIGNITE, AND PEAT↗

DOE OSTI2022

Multiscale simulation of integrated energy system and electricity market interactions

Accelerating the deep decarbonization of the world's electric grids requires the coordination of complex energy systems and infrastructures across timescales from seconds to decades. Here, we present a new multiscale simulation framework that integrates process- and grid-centric modeling paradigms to better design, operate, and control integrated energy systems (IESs), which combine multiple technologies, in wholesale energy markets. Traditionally, IESs are analyzed with a process-centric paradigm such as levelized cost of electricity (LCOE) or annualized net revenue, ignoring important interactions with electricity markets. This framework explicitly models the complex interactions between an IES's bidding, scheduling, and control decisions and the energy market's clearing and settlement processes, while incorporating operational uncertainties. Through two case studies, we show the importance of understanding and quantifying complex resource-grid interactions. In case study 1, we demonstrate that optimized bidding from one resource shifts the profit distribution for all energy systems in the market. This result suggests new and more flexible IES technologies can disrupt the economics of all market participants, possibly leading to accelerated retirements of less flexible resources. Interestingly, the optimized bidding has little impact on grid-level aggregate statistics, such as total generation costs and renewable penetration rate. While aggregate modeling strategies may remain valid under some IES adoption scenarios for analysis focused on regional outcomes, direct comparisons of IES technologies at specific locations without considering these interactions may lead to misleading or incorrect conclusions. In case study 2, we consider the design and flexible operation of IESs that hybridize conventional generators with energy storage. Through a sensitivity analysis, we find that as the size of the storage system increases, the total number of start-ups for coal- and natural gas-based IESs reduced by 25% and 33.6%, and the total thermal generator ramping (i.e., mileage) reduced by 86.5% and 62.5%, respectively. This shows the primary benefit of storage may not be reduced operational costs (which do not change significantly) but fewer start-ups and less ramping, which may greatly simplify the design, operation, and control of carbon capture systems. The new modeling and optimization capabilities from this work enable the coupling of rigorous, dynamic process models with grid-level production cost models to quantitatively identify the nuanced interdependencies across these vast timescales that must be addressed to realize clean, safe, and secure energy production. Moreover, the proposed general multiscale simulation framework is applicable to all IES technologies and can be easily extended to consider other energy carriers (e.g., hydrogen, ammonia) and energy infrastructures (e.g., natural gas pipelines).

24 POWER TRANSMISSION AND DISTRIBUTION↗

DOE OSTI2026

Techno-Economic, Feasibility, and Life Cycle Analysis of Renewable Propane: 2025 Update

To clarify the current and future landscape for renewable propane (RP) production, this work evaluates the value proposition of recovering RP from existing and planned hydroprocessed esters and fatty acids (HEFA) biorefineries and surveys emerging technologies under development or deployment. HEFA biorefineries co-produce a propane-rich fuel gas stream, normally used to meet HEFA process heat requirements, from which propane can be recovered and sold to create an additional revenue stream alongside liquid transportation fuels such as renewable diesel (RD) and sustainable aviation fuel (SAF). This report updates and extends a 2022 analysis of RP recovery from HEFA facilities by escalating capital and operating costs to 2024 prices, incorporating recent policy developments (including the Section 45Z Clean Fuel Production Credit), evaluating RP recovery for both RD- and SAF-focused HEFA facilities at two scales (3,000 and 75,000 barrels per day of feedstock), and quantifying the impact of RP recovery on HEFA liquid-fuel carbon intensity (CI) and associated tax credits using the 45ZCF-GREET model. For a 3,000 BPD RD-focused HEFA facility, approximately 3.5 million gallons per year (MGPY) of RP can be recovered; in this base case, the estimated payback period is 18 months based on the total installed cost of the RP recovery equipment and 36 months based on the total capital investment for the entire RP recovery project. The payback period is slightly shorter for the analogous SAF-focused configuration (approximately 4.3 MGPY RP). Sensitivity analysis shows that CAPEX magnitude, RP recovery plant scale, and CI-driven tax credit valuations are the dominant determinants of project viability. RP recovery may increase the CI of HEFA liquid fuels, which can reduce liquid-fuel tax credits (a key revenue stream for the HEFA biorefinery) and lengthen payback periods. However, RP recovery generally remains economically favorable across a wide range of plausible scenarios and market conditions. The report also summarizes emerging pathways that could expand future RP supply.

09 BIOMASS FUELS↗