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DOE OSTI2024

A Data-Driven Framework for Power System Event Type Identification via Safe Semi-Supervised Techniques

Herein this paper investigates the use of phasor measurement unit (PMU) data with deep learning techniques to construct real-time event identification models for transmission networks. Increasing penetration of distributed energy resources represents a great opportunity to achieve decarbonization, as well as challenges in systematic situational awareness. When high-resolution PMU data and sufficient manually recorded event labels are available, the power event identification problem is defined as a statistical classification problem that can be solved by numerous cutting-edge classifiers. However, in real grids, collecting tremendous high-quality event labels is quite expensive. Utilities frequently have a large number of event records without in-depth details (i.e., unlabeled events). To bridge this gap, we propose a novel semi-supervised learning-based method to improve the performance of event classifiers trained with a limited number of labeled events by exploiting the information from massive unlabeled events. In other words, compared to existing data-driven methods, our method requires only a small portion of labeled data to achieve a similar level of accuracy. Meanwhile, this work discusses and addresses the performance degradation caused by class distribution mismatch between the training set and the real applications. Based on the proposed safe learning mechanism, our model does not directly use all unlabeled events during model training, but selectively uses them through a comprehensive evaluation procedure. Numerical studies on a sizable PMU dataset have been used to validate the performance of the proposed method.

42 ENGINEERING↗

DOE OSTI2022

Data-driven linear time advance operators for the acceleration of plasma physics simulation

In this study, we demonstrate the application of data-driven linear operator construction for time advance with a goal of accelerating plasma physics simulation. We apply dynamic mode decomposition (DMD) to data produced by the nonlinear SOLPS-ITER (Scrape-off Layer Plasma Simulator - International Thermonuclear Experimental Reactor) plasma boundary code suite in order to estimate a series of linear operators and monitor their predictive accuracy via online error analysis. We find that this approach defines when these dynamics can be represented by a sequence of approximate linear operators and is essential for providing consistent projections when compared to an unconstrained application. For linear diffusion and advection–diffusion fluid test problems, we construct and apply operators within explicit and implicit time advance schemes, demonstrating that stability can be robustly guaranteed in each case. We further investigate the use of the linear time advance operators within several integration methods including forward Euler, backward Euler, and the matrix exponential. The application of this method to simulation data from SOLPS-ITER, with varying levels of Markov chain Monte Carlo numerical noise, shows that constrained DMD operators yield a capability to identify, extract, and integrate a (slow) subset of the present timescales. Example applications show that for projected speedup factors of [Formula: see text], and [Formula: see text], a mean relative error of 3%, 5%, and 8% and maximum relative error less than 20% are achievable, which appears acceptable for typical SOLPS-ITER steady-state simulations.

70 PLASMA PHYSICS AND FUSION TECHNOLOGY↗

DOE OSTI2021

A Data-Driven Method for Estimating Behind-the-Meter Photovoltaic Generation in Hawaii

Due to the increasing penetration of distributed behind-the-meter photovoltaic (PV) systems and the installed utility revenue metering limited to monitoring only the net power import/export of the household, it is increasingly challenging for utilities to effectively plan and operate the grid. This paper proposes a methodology that estimates behind-the-meter PV generation using a selected subset of monitored PV systems. It is a data-driven approach, and the PV output is estimated utilizing a statistic regression model. A Minimum Redundancy Maximum Relevance (MRMR) algorithm is applied to preselect the optimal subset of the monitored PV systems. The performance of this approach is compared with a spatial interpolation method and a model-based approach. The proposed method is validated using high-resolution meter data recorded from 18 residential rooftop PV systems located on the island of Maui, Hawaii.

Data-driven modeling↗

DOE OSTI2024

Experimentation in Exploring Photovoltaic Inverter Dynamics Under Different Irradiance Levels Through a Data-Driven Approach

As conventional direct connections of synchronous generators are being phased out, inverter-based resources (IBRs) with grid support functions are increasingly being integrated into power systems. This transition requires the development of accurate dynamic models for IBRs to predict how power systems will adapt to varying levels of IBRs penetration, establish grid code requirements, and ensure compliance. Here, this study introduces an active probing signal-based data-driven modeling technique to accurately derive the dynamics model of a smart photovoltaic inverter operating in Volt-Watt and Freq-Watt modes, in compliance with the IEEE 1547–2018 standard. The paper focuses on investigating how the dynamics of the PV inverter model respond to fluctuations in solar irradiance, utilizing real-time digital simulator experimentation. The experimental analysis demonstrates that the amplitude of dynamics fluctuates with changes in irradiance across both operational modes and confirms the active power’s dependence on irradiance levels. Furthermore, the nature of inverter dynamics varies distinctly between the different modes of activation. Critically, our findings indicate that dynamic models require DC-gain adjustments to accommodate contrasting irradiance levels, highlighting a negative gradient linear relationship between the DC-gain of each model and the irradiance.

14 SOLAR ENERGY↗

DOE OSTI2023

Data-driven modeling of municipal water system responses to hydroclimate extremes

Sustainable western US municipal water system (MWS) management depends on quantifying the impacts of supply and demand dynamics on system infrastructure reliability and vulnerability. Systems modeling can replicate the interactions but extensive parameterization, high complexity, and long development cycles present barriers to widespread adoption. To address these challenges, we develop the Machine Learning Water Systems Model (ML-WSM) – a novel application of data-driven modeling for MWS management. We apply the ML-WSM framework to the Salt Lake City, Utah water system, where we benchmark prediction performance on the seasonal response of reservoir levels, groundwater withdrawal, and imported water requests to climate anomalies at a daily resolution against an existing systems model. The ML-WSM accurately predicts the seasonal dynamics of all components; especially during supply-limiting conditions (KGE > 0.88, PBias < ±3%). Extreme wet conditions challenged model skill but the ML-WSM communicated the appropriate seasonal trends and relationships to component thresholds (e.g., reservoir dead pool). The model correctly classified nearly all instances of vulnerability (83%) and peak severity (100%), encouraging its use as a guidance tool that complements systems models for evaluating the influences of climate on MWS performance.

29 ENERGY PLANNING, POLICY, AND ECONOMY↗

DOE OSTI2021

MB-Fit: Software infrastructure for data-driven many-body potential energy functions

Many-body potential energy functions (MB-PEFs), which integrate data-driven representations of many-body short-range quantum mechanical interactions with physics-based representations of many-body polarization and long-range interactions, have recently been shown to provide high accuracy in the description of molecular interactions from the gas to the condensed phase. Here, we present MB-Fit, a software infrastructure for the automated development of MB-PEFs for generic molecules within the TTM-nrg (Thole-type model energy) and MB-nrg (many-body energy) theoretical frameworks. Besides providing all the necessary computational tools for generating TTM-nrg and MB-nrg PEFs, MB-Fit provides a seamless interface with the MBX software, a many-body energy and force calculator for computer simulations. Given the demonstrated accuracy of the MB-PEFs, particularly within the MB-nrg framework, we believe that MB-Fit will enable routine predictive computer simulations of generic (small) molecules in the gas, liquid, and solid phases, including, but not limited to, the modeling of quantum isomeric equilibria in molecular clusters, solvation processes, molecular crystals, and phase diagrams.

37 INORGANIC, ORGANIC, PHYSICAL, AND ANALYTICAL CH↗

DOE OSTI2024

A Data-Driven Approach for High-Impedance Fault Localization in Distribution Systems [SWR-24-13]

This software provides a data-driven approach for efficiently identifying high impedance faults (HIFs) in distribution systems. To tackle the nonlinearity of the voltage current trajectory of HIFs, we first formulate linear least squares problems to approximate the trajectory with piecewise functions. Then we collect the function features of all segments as inputs and use the support vector machine approach to efficiently identify HIFs at different locations.

Zhou, Yuqi↗

DOE OSTI2023

Data-driven Whitney forms for structure-preserving control volume analysis

Control volume analysis models physics via the exchange of generalized fluxes between subdomains. Here, we introduce a scientific machine learning framework adopting a partition of unity architecture to identify physically-relevant control volumes, with generalized fluxes between subdomains encoded via Whitney forms. The approach provides a differentiable parameterization of geometry which may be trained in an end-to-end fashion to extract reduced models from full field data while exactly preserving physics. The architecture admits a data-driven finite element exterior calculus allowing discovery of mixed finite element spaces with closed form quadrature rules. An equivalence between Whitney forms and graph networks reveals that the geometric problem of control volume learning is equivalent to an unsupervised graph discovery problem. The framework is developed for manifolds in arbitrary dimension, with examples provided for H(div) problems in $\mathbb{R}$ establishing convergence and structure preservation properties. Finally, we consider a lithium-ion battery problem where we discover a reduced finite element space encoding transport pathways from high-fidelity microstructure resolved simulations. The approach reduces the 5.89M finite element simulation to 136 elements while reproducing pressure to under 0.1% error and preserving conservation.

97 MATHEMATICS AND COMPUTING↗

DOE OSTI2021

Simple, low-cost and accurate data-driven geophysical forecasting with learned kernels

Modelling geophysical processes as low-dimensional dynamical systems and regressing their vector field from data is a promising approach for learning emulators of such systems. We show that when the kernel of these emulators is also learned from data (using kernel flows, a variant of cross-validation), then the resulting data-driven models are not only faster than equation-based models but are easier to train than neural networks such as the long short-term memory neural network. In addition, they are also more accurate and predictive than the latter. When trained on geophysical observational data, for example the weekly averaged global sea-surface temperature, considerable gains are also observed by the proposed technique in comparison with classical partial differential equation-based models in terms of forecast computational cost and accuracy. When trained on publicly available re-analysis data for the daily temperature of the North American continent, we observe significant improvements over classical baselines such as climatology and persistence-based forecast techniques. Although our experiments concern specific examples, the proposed approach is general, and our results support the viability of kernel methods (with learned kernels) for interpretable and computationally efficient geophysical forecasting for a large diversity of processes.

58 GEOSCIENCES↗

DOE OSTI2021

Data-Driven Learning for the Mori--Zwanzig Formalism: A Generalization of the Koopman Learning Framework

A theoretical framework which unifies the conventional Mori--Zwanzig formalism and the approximate Koopman learning of deterministic dynamical systems from noiseless observation is presented. In this framework, the Mori--Zwanzig formalism, developed in statistical mechanics to tackle the hard problem of construction of reduced-order dynamics for high-dimensional dynamical systems, can be considered as a natural generalization of the Koopman description of the dynamical system. We next show that, similar to the approximate Koopman learning methods, data-driven methods can be developed for the Mori--Zwanzig formalism with Mori's linear projection operator. We have developed two algorithms to extract the key operators, the Markov and the memory kernel, using time series of a reduced set of observables in a dynamical system. We have adopted the Lorenz `96 system as a test problem and solved for the above operators. These operators exhibit complex behaviors, which are unlikely to be captured by traditional modeling approaches in Mori--Zwanzig analysis. The nontrivial generalized fluctuation-dissipation relationship, which relates the memory kernel with the two-time correlation statistics of the orthogonal dynamics, was numerically verified as a validation of the solved operators. Here we present numerical evidence that the generalized Langevin equation, a key construct in the Mori--Zwanzig formalism, is more advantageous in predicting the evolution of the reduced set of observables than the conventional approximate Koopman operators.

97 MATHEMATICS AND COMPUTING↗

DOE OSTI2023

Intensified Tpx3Cam, a fast data-driven optical camera with nanosecond timing resolution for single photon detection in quantum applications

Here we describe a fast data-driven optical camera, Tpx3Cam, with nanosecond scale timing resolution and 80 Mpixel/sec throughput. After the addition of intensifier, the camera is single photon sensitive with quantum efficiency determined primarily by the intensifier photocathode. The single photon performance of the camera was characterized with results on the gain, timing resolution and afterpulsing reported here. The intensified camera was successfully used for measurements in a variety of applications including quantum applications. As an example of such application, which requires simultaneous detection of multiple photons, we describe registration of photon pairs from the spontaneous parametric down-conversion source in a spectrometer. We measured the photon wavelength and timing with respective precisions of 0.15 nm and 3 ns, and also demonstrated that the two photons are anti-correlated in energy.

79 ASTRONOMY AND ASTROPHYSICS↗

DOE OSTI2016

SU-G-BRC-01: A Data-Driven Pre-Optimization Method for Prediction of Achievability of Clinical Objectives in IMRT

Purpose: We propose a novel data-driven method to predict the achievability of clinical objectives upfront before invoking the IMRT optimization. Methods: A new metric called “Geometric Complexity (GC)” is used to estimate the achievability of clinical objectives. Here, GC is the measure of the number of “unmodulated” beamlets or rays that intersect the Region-of-interest (ROI) and the target volume. We first compute the geometric complexity ratio (GCratio) between the GC of a ROI (say, parotid) in a reference plan and the GC of the same ROI in a given plan. The GCratio of a ROI indicates the relative geometric complexity of the ROI as compared to the same ROI in the reference plan. Hence GCratio can be used to predict if a defined clinical objective associated with the ROI can be met by the optimizer for a given case. Basically a higher GCratio indicates a lesser likelihood for the optimizer to achieve the clinical objective defined for a given ROI. Similarly, a lower GCratio indicates a higher likelihood for the optimizer to achieve the clinical objective defined for the given ROI. We have evaluated the proposed method on four Head and Neck cases using Pinnacle3 (version 9.10.0) Treatment Planning System (TPS). Results: Out of the total of 28 clinical objectives from four head and neck cases included in the study, 25 were in agreement with the prediction, which implies an agreement of about 85% between predicted and obtained results. The Pearson correlation test shows a positive correlation between predicted and obtained results (Correlation = 0.82, r2 = 0.64, p < 0.005). Conclusion: The study demonstrates the feasibility of the proposed method in head and neck cases for predicting the achievability of clinical objectives with reasonable accuracy.

60 APPLIED LIFE SCIENCES↗

DOE OSTI2018

Data-Driven Pricing Strategy for Demand-Side Resource Aggregators

We consider a utility who seeks to coordinate the energy consumption of multiple demand-side flexible resource aggregators. For the purpose of privacy protection, the utility has no access to the detailed information of loads of resource aggregators. Instead, we assume that the utility can directly observe each aggregator's aggregate energy consumption outcomes. Furthermore, the utility can leverage resource aggregator energy consumption via time-varying electricity price profiles. Based on inverse optimization technique, we propose an estimation method for the utility to infer the energy requirement information of aggregators. Subsequently, we design a data-driven pricing scheme to help the utility achieve system-level control objectives (e.g., minimizing peak demand) by combining hybrid particle swarm optimizer with mutation algorithm and an iterative algorithm. Case studies have demonstrated the effectiveness of the proposed approach against two benchmark pricing strategies-a flat-rate scheme and a time-of-use scheme.

data-driven optimization↗

DOE OSTI2021

Non-intrusive data-driven model reduction for differential–algebraic equations derived from lifting transformations

In this paper we present a non-intrusive data-driven approach for model reduction of nonlinear systems. The approach considers the particular case of nonlinear partial differential equations (PDEs) that form systems of partial differential–algebraic equations (PDAEs) when lifted to polynomial form. Such systems arise, for example, when the governing equations include Arrhenius reaction terms (e.g., in reacting flow models) and thermodynamic terms (e.g., the Helmholtz free energy terms in a phase-field solidification model). Using the known structured form of the lifted algebraic equations, the approach computes the reduced operators for the algebraic equations explicitly, using straightforward linear algebra operations on the basis matrices. The reduced operators for the differential equations are inferred from lifted snapshot data using operator inference, which solves a linear least squares regression problem. The approach is illustrated for the nonlinear model of solidification of a pure material. The lifting transformations reformulate the solidification PDEs as a system of PDAEs that have cubic structure. The operators of the lifted system for this solidification example have affine dependence on key process parameters, permitting us to learn a parametric reduced model with operator inference. Numerical experiments show the effectiveness of the resulting reduced models in capturing key aspects of the solidification dynamics.

42 ENGINEERING↗

DOE OSTI2017

Methodology for Path Planning with Dynamic Data-Driven Flight Capability Estimation

This paper presents methodology to enable path planning for an unmanned aerial vehicle that uses dynamic data-driven flight capability estimation. The main contribution of the work is a general mathematical approach that leverages offline high-fidelity physics-based modeling together with onboard sensor measurements to achieve dynamic path planning. The mathematical framework, expressed as a constrained partially observable Markov decision process, accounts for vehicle capability constraints and is robust to modeling error and disturbances in both the vehicle process and measurement models. Vehicle capability constraints are incorporated using probabilistic support vector machine surrogates of high-fidelity physics-based models that adequately capture the richness of the vehicle dynamics. Sensor measurements are treated in a general manner and can include combinations of multiple modalities such as that through global positioning system signals, inertial mass unit outputs, and structural strain data of the airframe. Results are presented for a simulated three-dimensional environment and point-mass airplane model. The vehicle can dynamically adjust its trajectory according to the observations it receives about its current state of health, thereby retaining a high probability of survival and mission success.

42 ENGINEERING↗

DOE OSTI2024

A new data-driven map predicts substantial undocumented peatland areas in Amazonia

Tropical peatlands are among the most carbon-dense terrestrial ecosystems yet recorded. Collectively, they comprise a large but highly uncertain reservoir of the global carbon cycle, with wide-ranging estimates of their global area (441 025–1700 000 km 2 ) and below-ground carbon storage (105–288 Pg C). Substantial gaps remain in our understanding of peatland distribution in some key regions, including most of tropical South America. Here we compile 2413 ground reference points in and around Amazonian peatlands and use them alongside a stack of remote sensing products in a random forest model to generate the first field-data-driven model of peatland distribution across the Amazon basin. Our model predicts a total Amazonian peatland extent of 251 015 km 2 (95th percentile confidence interval: 128 671–373 359), greater than that of the Congo basin, but around 30% smaller than a recent model-derived estimate of peatland area across Amazonia. The model performs relatively well against point observations but spatial gaps in the ground reference dataset mean that model uncertainty remains high, particularly in parts of Brazil and Bolivia. For example, we predict significant peatland areas in northern Peru with relatively high confidence, while peatland areas in the Rio Negro basin and adjacent south-western Orinoco basin which have previously been predicted to hold Campinarana or white sand forests, are predicted with greater uncertainty. Similarly, we predict large areas of peatlands in Bolivia, surprisingly given the strong climatic seasonality found over most of the country. Very little field data exists with which to quantitatively assess the accuracy of our map in these regions. Data gaps such as these should be a high priority for new field sampling. This new map can facilitate future research into the vulnerability of peatlands to climate change and anthropogenic impacts, which is likely to vary spatially across the Amazon basin.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

DOE OSTI2024

Fractal analysis on Ag 2 O thin film using a data-driven approach

The synthesis of fractal Ag oxide (Ag 2 O) on the surface of Ag thin film has been achieved at room temperature by using Synchrotron X-ray irradiation. We have performed an automated quantitative analysis of a batch of 1879 fractal Ag 2 O patterns in a scanning electron microscopy (SEM) image within a radius of 2000 mm outward from the center of the X-ray beam. The morphology is similar to that of the diffusion-limited cluster aggregation (DLCA) model. The fractal dimension (D) of Ag 2 O is between 1.7 and 1.5 from the center to the edge. The area distribution density of fractal Ag 2 O follows a quadratic function with radius R. It is found that the branches’ number of fractal Ag 2 O is a key factor affecting the fractal dimension. The more branches the fractal has, the greater the D is. This is the first time that Ag fractal has been investigated by combining automated data analysis methods with batch experimental data. This data-driven approach provides a new research perspective for rationally regulating materials’ fractal morphology and performance.

36 MATERIALS SCIENCE↗

DOE OSTI2020

Data Driven Online Learning of Power System Dynamics

With the advancement of sensing and communication in power networks, high-frequency real-time data from a power network can be used as a resource to develop better monitoring capabilities. In this work, a systematic approach based on data-driven operator theoretic methods involving Koopman operator is proposed for the online identification of power system dynamics. In particular, a new algorithm is provided, which unlike any previously existing algorithms, updates the Koopman operator iteratively as new data points are acquired. The proposed algorithm has three advantages: a) allows for real-time monitoring of the power system dynamics b) linear power system dynamics (this linear system is usually in a higher dimensional feature space and is not same as linearization of the underlying nonlinear dynamics) and c) computationally fast and less intensive when compared to the popular Extended Dynamic Mode Decomposition (EDMD) algorithm. The efficiency of the proposed algorithm is illustrated on an IEEE 9 bus system using synthetic data from the nonlinear model and on IEEE 39 bus system using synthetic data from the linearized model.

Sinha, Subhrajit↗