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Stratospheric Temperature and Ozone Impacts of the Hunga Tonga-Hunga Ha'apai Water Vapor Injection
The January 2022 eruption of the Hunga Tonga-Hunga Ha'apai underwater volcano injected a large amount of water vapor into the mid-stratosphere. This study uses model simulations to investigate the resulting stratospheric impacts out to 2031. Maximum radiatively-driven model temperature changes occur in the Southern Hemisphere (SH) subtropics in April–May 2022, with warming of ∼1 K in the lower stratosphere and cooling of 3 K in the mid-stratosphere. The radiative cooling combined with adiabatic cooling driven by the quasi-biennial oscillation meridional circulation explains the near-record cold anomaly observed in the SH subtropical mid-stratosphere. Projected ozone responses maximize in 2023–2024 as the water vapor plume is transported globally throughout the stratosphere and mesosphere. The excess H2O increases the OH radical, causing a negative global ozone response (2%–10%) in the upper stratosphere and mesosphere due to increased odd hydrogen-ozone loss, and a small positive ozone response (0.5%–1%) in the mid-stratosphere due to interference of the NOx catalytic loss cycle by the additional OH. In the lower stratosphere, the excess H2O is projected to increase polar stratospheric clouds and springtime halogen-ozone loss, enhancing the Antarctic ozone hole by 25–30 DU in 2023. Arctic impact is small, with maximum additional ozone loss of 4–5 DU projected in spring 2024. These responses diminish after 2024 to be quite small by 2031, as the excess H2O is removed from the stratosphere with a 2.5-year e-folding time. Given the year-to-year variability of the stratosphere, the magnitudes of these ozone responses may be below the threshold of detectability in observations.
Effect of threshold parameters on infrared segmentation methods for porosity detection in electron beam powder bed fusion
In-situ process monitoring has seen significant interest in additive manufacturing to address qualification and certification goals. This is especially prevalent in metal powder bed fusion processes such as electron beam powder bed fusion (PBF-EB), with layer-wise infrared imaging being commonly used to detect defects. Here, this work compares two different segmentation methods (static thresholding and statistical thresholding) used for detecting porosity from in-situ infrared imaging data for PBF-EB. Samples were manufactured at a variety of focus offset values to induce porosity. Then, the segmented infrared images were compared to ex-situ X-ray computed tomography scans, which served as a ground-truth reference for objective evaluation. Through this analysis framework, the influential parameters, static threshold and N-value (number of standard deviations above the mean pixel value), respectively, for both image segmentation methods were analyzed and compared for their effects on porosity detection. With optimal parameter settings, the two methods had similar porosity detection performance, but the statistical method performed better under a larger variety of parameter settings.
Detection of a weak gamma-ray burst from the direction of Ursa Major
An 80-second gamma-ray burst was detected over the energy range 42-205 keV by a balloon-borne gamma-ray telescope at 23:00:22 UT on May 11, 1988. Assuming a uniformly distributed source model, a 30 keV energy threshold, and a 3 delta detection threshold, it is estimated that the burst rate is 39,000 + 90,000 - 32,000/yr. It is found that the emission originated from the direction of Ursa Major. The event displays a marginal periodicity with a fundamental period 2.17 + or - 0.12 s.
Determination of navigation FDI thresholds using a Markov model
A method for determining time-varying Failure Detection and Identification (FDI) thresholds for single sample decision functions is described in the context of a triplex system of inertial platforms. A cost function consisting of the probability of vehicle loss due to FDI decision errors is minimized. A discrete Markov model is constructed from which this cost can be determined as a function of the decision thresholds employed to detect and identify the first and second failures. Optimal thresholds are determined through the use of parameter optimization techniques. The application of this approach to threshold determination is illustrated for the Space Shuttle's inertial measurement instruments.
Determine Optimal Stimulus Amplitude for Using Vestibular Stochastic Stimulation to Improve Balance Function
Sensorimotor changes such as postural and gait instabilities can affect the functional performance of astronauts when they transition across different gravity environments. We are developing a method, based on stochastic resonance (SR), to enhance information transfer by applying non-zero levels of external noise on the vestibular system (vestibular stochastic resonance, VSR). Our previous work has shown the advantageous effects of VSR in a balance task of standing on an unstable surface [1]. This technique to improve detection of vestibular signals uses a stimulus delivery system that provides imperceptibly low levels of white noise-based binaural bipolar electrical stimulation of the vestibular system. The goal of this project is to determine optimal levels of stimulation for SR applications by using a defined vestibular threshold of motion detection. A series of experiments were carried out to determine a robust paradigm to identify a vestibular threshold that can then be used to recommend optimal stimulation levels for sensorimotor adaptability (SA) training applications customized to each crewmember. The amplitude of stimulation to be used in the VSR application has varied across studies in the literature such as 60% of nociceptive stimulus thresholds [2]. We compared subjects' perceptual threshold with that obtained from two measures of body sway. Each test session was 463s long and consisted of several 15s long sinusoidal stimuli, at different current amplitudes (0-2 mA), interspersed with 20-20.5s periods of no stimulation. Subjects sat on a chair with their eyes closed and had to report their perception of motion through a joystick. A force plate underneath the chair recorded medio-lateral shear forces and roll moments. Comparison of threshold of motion detection obtained from joystick data versus body sway suggests that perceptual thresholds were significantly lower. In the balance task, subjects stood on an unstable surface and had to maintain balance, and the stimulation was administered from 20-400% of subjects' vestibular threshold. Optimal stimulation amplitude was determined at which the balance performance was best compared to control (no stimulation). Preliminary results show that, in general, using stimulation amplitudes at 40-60% of perceptual motion threshold significantly improved the balance performance. We hypothesize that VSR stimulation will act synergistically with SA training to improve adaptability by increasing utilization of vestibular information and therefore will help us to optimize and personalize a SA countermeasure prescription. This combination may help to significantly reduce the number of days required to recover functional performance to preflight levels after long-duration spaceflight.
Detecting Spacecraft Anomalies Using LSTMs and Nonparametric Dynamic Thresholding
As spacecraft send back increasing amounts of telemetry data, improved anomaly detection systems are needed to lessen the monitoring burden placed on operations engineers and reduce operational risk. Current spacecraft monitoring systems only target a subset of anomaly types and often require costly expert knowledge to develop and maintain due to challenges involving scale and complexity. We demonstrate the effectiveness of Long Short-Term Memory (LSTMs) networks, a type of Recurrent Neural Network (RNN), in overcoming these issues using expert-labeled telemetry anomaly data from the Soil Moisture Active Passive (SMAP) satellite and the Mars Science Laboratory (MSL) rover, Curiosity. We also propose a complementary unsupervised and nonparametric anomaly thresholding approach developed during a pilot implementation of an anomaly detection system for SMAP, and offer false positive mitigation strategies along with other key improvements and lessons learned during development.
Using Information From Prior Satellite Scans to Improve Cloud Detection Near the Day-Night Terminator
With geostationary satellite data it is possible to have a continuous record of diurnal cycles of cloud properties for a large portion of the globe. Daytime cloud property retrieval algorithms are typically superior to nighttime algorithms because daytime methods utilize measurements of reflected solar radiation. However, reflected solar radiation is difficult to accurately model for high solar zenith angles where the amount of incident radiation is small. Clear and cloudy scenes can exhibit very small differences in reflected radiation and threshold-based cloud detection methods have more difficulty setting the proper thresholds for accurate cloud detection. Because top-of-atmosphere radiances are typically more accurately modeled outside the terminator region, information from previous scans can help guide cloud detection near the terminator. This paper presents an algorithm that uses cloud fraction and clear and cloudy infrared brightness temperatures from previous satellite scan times to improve the performance of a threshold-based cloud mask near the terminator. Comparisons of daytime, nighttime, and terminator cloud fraction derived from Geostationary Operational Environmental Satellite (GOES) radiance measurements show that the algorithm greatly reduces the number of false cloud detections and smoothes the transition from the daytime to the nighttime clod detection algorithm. Comparisons with the Geoscience Laser Altimeter System (GLAS) data show that using this algorithm decreases the number of false detections by approximately 20 percentage points.
The CfA Einstein Observatory extended deep X-ray survey
All IPC exposures in the Einstein Extended Deep X-ray Survey program have been reanalyzed. The current survey covers about 2.3 sq deg with a typical limiting sensitivity of about 5 x 10 to the -14th ergs/sq cm/s in the energy range from 0.8-3.5 keV. A total of 25 IPC sources are detected above a threshold of 4.5 sigma. A total of 18 are detected independently in the HRI, leading to the identification of six with stars and 11 with extragalactic objects. The remaining sources are classified as extragalactic. The population of identified extragalactic objects is dominated by QSOs, with one or two possible clusters. The basic conclusions of the original survey remain unchanged.
Optimal Stimulus Amplitude for Vestibular Stochastic Stimulation to Improve Sensorimotor Function
Sensorimotor changes such as postural and gait instabilities can affect the functional performance of astronauts when they transition across different gravity environments. We are developing a method, based on stochastic resonance (SR), to enhance information transfer by applying non-zero levels of external noise on the vestibular system (vestibular stochastic resonance, VSR). Our previous work has shown the advantageous effects of VSR in a balance task of standing on an unstable surface. This technique to improve detection of vestibular signals uses a stimulus delivery system that is wearable or portable and provides imperceptibly low levels of white noise-based binaural bipolar electrical stimulation of the vestibular system. The goal of this project is to determine optimal levels of stimulation for SR applications by using a defined vestibular threshold of motion detection. A series of experiments were carried out to determine a robust paradigm to identify a vestibular threshold that can then be used to recommend optimal stimulation levels for SR training applications customized to each crewmember. Customizing stimulus intensity can maximize treatment effects. The amplitude of stimulation to be used in the VSR application has varied across studies in the literature such as 60% of nociceptive stimulus thresholds. We compared subjects' perceptual threshold with that obtained from two measures of body sway. Each test session was 463s long and consisted of several 15s sinusoidal stimuli, at different current amplitudes (0-2 mA), interspersed with 20-20.5s periods of no stimulation. Subjects sat on a chair with their eyes closed and had to report their perception of motion through a joystick. A force plate underneath the chair recorded medio-lateral shear forces and roll moments. First we determined the percent time during stimulation periods for which perception of motion (activity above a pre-defined threshold) was reported using the joystick, and body sway (two standard deviation of the noise level in the baseline measurement) was detected by the sensors. The percentage time at each stimulation level for motion detection was normalized with respect to the largest value and a logistic regression curve fit was applied to these data. The threshold was defined at the 50% probability of motion detection. Comparison of threshold of motion detection obtained from joystick data versus body sway suggests that perceptual thresholds were significantly lower, and were not impacted by system noise. Further, in order to determine optimal stimulation amplitude to improve balance, two sets of experiments were carried out. In the first set of experiments, all subjects received the same level of stimuli and the intensity of optimal performance was projected back on subjects' vestibular threshold curve. In the second set of experiments, on different subjects, stimulation was administered from 20-400% of subjects' vestibular threshold obtained from joystick data. Preliminary results of our study show that, in general, using stimulation amplitudes at 40-60% of perceptual motion threshold improved balance performance significantly compared to control (no stimulation). The amplitude of vestibular stimulation that improved balance function was predominantly in the range of +/- 100 to +/- 400 micro A. We hypothesize that VSR stimulation will act synergistically with sensorimotor adaptability (SA) training to improve adaptability by increasing utilization of vestibular information and therefore will help us to optimize and personalize a SA countermeasure prescription. This combination will help to significantly reduce the number of days required to recover functional performance to preflight levels after long-duration spaceflight.
Detection of Millimeter-wavelength Flares from Two Accreting White Dwarf Systems in the SPT-3G Galactic Plane Survey
Blind discoveries of millimeter-wave transient events in nontargeted surveys, as opposed to follow-up or pointed observations, have only become possible in the past decade using cosmic microwave background surveys. Here we present the first results from the SPT-3G Galactic Plane Survey—the first dedicated high-sensitivity, wide-field, time-domain, millimeter-wave survey of the Galactic Plane, conducted with the South Pole Telescope (SPT) using the SPT-3G camera. The survey field covers approximately 100 deg 2 near the Galactic center. In 2023 and 2024, this survey consisted of roughly 1500 individual 20 minute observations in three bands centered at 95, 150, and 220 GHz, with plans for more observations in the coming years. We report the detection of two transient events exceeding a 5σ threshold in both the 95 and 150 GHz bands in the first 2 yr of SPT-3G Galactic Plane Survey data. Both events are unpolarized and exhibit durations of approximately 1 day, with peak flux densities at 150 GHz of at least 50 mJy. The peak isotropic luminosities at 150 GHz are on the order of 10 31 erg s −1 . Both events are associated with previously identified accreting white dwarfs. Magnetic reconnection in the accretion disk is a likely explanation for the observed millimeter flares. In the future, we plan to expand the transient search in the Galactic Plane by lowering the detection threshold, enabling single-band detections, analyzing lightcurves on a range of timescales, and including additional data from future observations.
Adaptive Thresholding and Parameter Estimation for PPM
A method of adaptive setting of a threshold level for the detection of pulses in a pulse-position modulation (PPM) free-space optical communication system has been developed. In simplified terms, it is desirable to set a threshold value high enough to greatly reduce the probability (PFA as defined below) of erroneously detecting noise as signal pulses but not so high as to greatly reduce the probability (PD as defined below) of detecting any signal pulses that may be present along with noise. In the present method, the threshold level is varied with time, in response to changing conditions in the optical-communication channel, in an effort to maintain a balance between the aforesaid competing requirements. An integral part of this adaptation scheme is a scheme for estimating key parameters of the optical-communication channel in particular, parameters that describe the fading and total attenuation in the channel, and parameters that characterize spreading of pulses by atmospheric and other effects. The method can be implemented by software processing of digitized optoelectronic-detector output, and has been tested by computational simulation. In the first stage of processing by this method, the digitized values of the detector output during noise-only time slots of received PPM symbols are averaged to obtain a background level. This background level is subtracted from the detector output in the hope of reducing or eliminating the noise component in the remaining signal. (This background level should not be confused with the detection threshold, which is computed in the last stage of processing.) Next, the remaining signal - in effect, a vector of pulse samples - is normalized by dividing it by its L1 norm (in general, the L1 norm of a vector is defined as the sum of absolute magnitudes of its orthogonal components).
A Novel Method for Setting Meaningful Thresholds for RMS-Energy Oscillation Detectors
Oscillation detection and mitigation is a crucial aspect of reliable power system operation. Several transmission system operators and reliability coordinators use the RMS-energy method of oscillation detection, but the process of setting thresholds is time and labor intensive. The current industry practice in the United States is to set thresholds based on the RMS-energy's value during ambient conditions, which can often lead to nuisance alarms that require thresholds to be manually retuned. In this paper, we propose a method for setting RMS-energy thresholds that directly accounts for oscillation amplitudes specified by the user. A theoretical analysis of the statistical properties of the RMS-energy incorporates these user-specified amplitudes, resulting in thresholds that reliably detect oscillations of interest while avoiding nuisance alarms. Theoretical results are validated with simulated measurements and the real-world practicality of the method is established with publicly available field-measured data from the Grid Event Signature Library.
Global surface-based cloud observation for ISCCP
Visual observations of cloud cover are hindered at night due to inadequate illumination of the clouds. This usually leads to an underestimation of the average cloud cover at night, especially for the amounts of middle and high clouds, in climatologies on surface observations. The diurnal cycles of cloud amounts, if based on all the surface observations, are therefore in error, but they can be obtained more accurately if the nighttime observations are screened to select those made under sufficient moonlight. Ten years of nighttime weather observations from the northern hemisphere in December were classified according to the illuminance of moonlight or twilight on the cloud tops, and a threshold level of illuminance was determined, above which the clouds are apparently detected adequately. This threshold corresponds to light from a full moon at an elevation angle of 6 degrees or from a partial moon at higher elevation, or twilight from the sun less than 9 degrees below the horizon. It permits the use of about 38% of the observations made with the sun below the horizon. The computed diurnal cycles of total cloud cover are altered considerably when this moonlight criterion is imposed. Maximum cloud cover over much of the ocean is now found to be at night or in the morning, whereas computations obtained without benefit of the moonlight criterion, as in our published atlases, showed the time of maximum to be noon or early afternoon in many regions. Cloud cover is greater at night than during the day over the open oceans far from the continents, particularly in summer. However, near noon maxima are still evident in the coastal regions, so that the global annual average oceanic cloud cover is still slightly greater during the day than at night, by 0.3%. Over land, where daytime maxima are still obtained but with reduced amplitude, average cloud cover is 3.3% greater during the daytime. The diurnal cycles of total cloud cover we obtain are compared with those of ISCCP for a few regions; they are generally in better agreement if the moonlight criterion is imposed on the surface observations. Using the moonlight criterion, we have analyzed ten years (1982-1991) of surface weather observations over land and ocean, worldwide, for total cloud cover and for the frequency of occurrence of clear sky, fog and precipitation The global average cloud cover (average of day and night) is about 2% higher if we impose the moonlight criterion than if we use all observations. The difference is greater in winter than in summer, because of the fewer hours of darkness in the summer. The amplitude of the annual cycle of total cloud cover over the Arctic Ocean and at the South Pole is diminished by a few percent when the moonlight criterion is imposed. The average cloud cover for 1982-1991 is found to be 55% for northern hemisphere land, 53% for southern hemisphere land, 66% for northern hemisphere ocean, and 70% for southern hemisphere ocean, giving a global average of 64%. The global average for daytime is 64.6% for nighttime 63.3%.
The effect of moonlight on observation of cloud cover at night, and application to cloud climatology
Ten years of nighttime weather observations from the Northern Hemisphere in December were classified according to the illuminance of moonlight or twilight on the cloud tops, and a threshold level of illuminance was determined, above which the clouds are apparently detected adequately. This threshold corresponds to light from a full moon at an elevation angle of 6 deg, light from a partial moon at higher elevation, or twilight from the sun less than 9 deg bvelow the horizon. It permits the use of about 38% of the observations made with the sun below the horizon. The computed diurnal cycles of total cloud cover are altered considerably when this moonlight criterion is imposed. Maximum cloud cover over much of the ocean is now found to be at night or in the morning, whereas computations obtained without benefit of the moonlight criterion, as in our published atlases, showed the time of maximum to be noon or early afternoon in many regions. The diurnal cycles of total cloud cover we obtain are compared with those of the International Satellite Cloud Climatology Project (ISCCP) for a few regions; they are generally in better agreement if the moonlight criterion is imposed on the surface observations. Using the moonlight criterion, we have analyzed 10 years (1982-91) of surface weather observations over land and ocean, worldwide, for total cloud cover and for the frequency of occurrence of clear sky, fog, and precipitation. The global average cloud cover (average of day and night) is about 2% higher if the moonlight criterion is imposed than if all observations are used. The difference is greater in winter than in summer, because of the fewer hours of darkness in summer. The amplitude of the annual cycle of total cloud cover over the Arctic Ocean and at the South Pole is diminished by a few percent when the moonlight criterion is imposed. The average cloud cover for 1982-91 is found to be 55% for Northern Hemisphere land, 53% for Southern Hemisphere land, 66% for Northern Hemisphere ocean, and 70% for Southern Hemisphere ocean, giving a global average of 64%. The global average for daytime is 64.6%; for nighttime 63.3%.
Assessment of an Automated Touchdown Detection Algorithm for the Orion Crew Module
Orion Crew Module (CM) touchdown detection is critical to activating the post-landing sequence that safe?s the Reaction Control Jets (RCS), ensures that the vehicle remains upright, and establishes communication with recovery forces. In order to accommodate safe landing of an unmanned vehicle or incapacitated crew, an onboard automated detection system is required. An Orion-specific touchdown detection algorithm was developed and evaluated to differentiate landing events from in-flight events. The proposed method will be used to initiate post-landing cutting of the parachute riser lines, to prevent CM rollover, and to terminate RCS jet firing prior to submersion. The RCS jets continue to fire until touchdown to maintain proper CM orientation with respect to the flight path and to limit impact loads, but have potentially hazardous consequences if submerged while firing. The time available after impact to cut risers and initiate the CM Up-righting System (CMUS) is measured in minutes, whereas the time from touchdown to RCS jet submersion is a function of descent velocity, sea state conditions, and is often less than one second. Evaluation of the detection algorithms was performed for in-flight events (e.g. descent under chutes) using hi-fidelity rigid body analyses in the Decelerator Systems Simulation (DSS), whereas water impacts were simulated using a rigid finite element model of the Orion CM in LS-DYNA. Two touchdown detection algorithms were evaluated with various thresholds: Acceleration magnitude spike detection, and Accumulated velocity changed (over a given time window) spike detection. Data for both detection methods is acquired from an onboard Inertial Measurement Unit (IMU) sensor. The detection algorithms were tested with analytically generated in-flight and landing IMU data simulations. The acceleration spike detection proved to be faster while maintaining desired safety margin. Time to RCS jet submersion was predicted analytically across a series of simulated Orion landing conditions. This paper details the touchdown detection method chosen and the analysis used to support the decision.
Spatiotemporal Evolution of Marine Heatwaves Globally
The spatiotemporal evolution of marine heatwaves (MHWs) is explored using a tracking algorithm termed Ocetrac that provides objective characterization of MHW spatiotemporal evolution. Candidate MHW grid points are defined in detrended gridded sea temperature data using a seasonally varying temperature threshold. Identified MHW points are collected into spatially distinct objects using edge detection with weak sensitivity to edge detection and size threshold criteria. These MHW objects are followed in space and time while allowing objects to split and merge. Ocetrac is applied to monthly satellite sea surface temperature data from September 1981 through January 2021. The resulting MHWs are characterized by their intensity, duration, and total area covered. The global analysis shows that MHWs in the Gulf of Maine and Mediterranean Sea evolve within a relatively small region, while major MHWs in the Pacific and Indian Oceans are linked in space and time. The largest and most long lasting MHW using this method lasts for 60 months from November 2013 to October 2018, encompassing previously identified MHW events including those in the Northeast Pacific (2014-2015), the Tasman Sea (2015-2016, 2017-2018), and the Great Barrier Reef (2016).
Artemis II Inertial Sensor Failure & Abort Condition Study
Given Artemis II as the first crewed lunar mission in decades, significant effort is directed towards understanding Space Launch System (SLS) response to failures of the three inertial sensors: two Ring-Laser Gyro Assemblies (RGAs) and the Redundant Inertial Navigation Unit (RINU). Parametric studies identify Loss of Mission (LOM) or Loss of Crew (LOC) sensitive mission phases. Fault Detection & Isolation (FDI) algorithms’ thresholds’ performance is assessed with respect to detecting LOM or LOC causing sensor failures. Monte Carlo studies are performed targeting specific trajectory phases for insight into re-optimizing FDI thresholds and improving knowledge of SLS sensor failure response statistics.