International Developments on Uncertainties in NPP Decommissioning costs and planned work on Benchmarking at the OECD-NEA - 17074
The ability to decommission NPPs shut down after normal operation has been proven technically. Issues of current concern include the ability to accurately calculate and demonstrate the validity of decommissioning cost estimates, and to control costs during decommissioning. This paper describes recent international developments concerning addressing uncertainties in NPP decommissioning cost estimation, and work currently being planned relating to decommissioning cost benchmarking at the OECD Nuclear Energy Agency. The process of decommissioning cost estimation is evolving, with a general trend towards showing greater levels of detail in the estimate. The International Structure for Decommissioning Costing was published in 2012 and presents a common reporting format for decommissioning costing undertaken on a deterministic basis. However, this does not address probabilistic methods or associated presentation formats for the inclusion of uncertainties in decommissioning estimates. A consistent and comparable treatment of uncertainties in decommissioning cost estimation would further facilitate comparison between different cost estimates and enhance understanding of and confidence in the estimates themselves. There is growing interest in benchmarking decommissioning costs, reflecting a need to better understand the relationships between estimates and actual costs, to give greater confidence that funding will be sufficient, and as a useful tool in project management and enhancing project delivery. (authors)