Predicting city-scale daily electricity consumption using data-driven models
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29 ENERGY PLANNING, POLICY, AND ECONOMY↗
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Search indexed NASA NTRS and DOE OSTI research on propulsion, heat transfer, battery materials and energy systems. Follow report and document links to the original sources.
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MODELING OF ENHANCED AIR DEHUMIDIFICATION THROUGH ELECTRICALLY CHARGED VAPOR CAPTURING ELECTROSTATIC DROPLETS
This paper investigated the potential of a new electrostatic-based water vapor separation system for humidity control in buildings. The Electrospray Vortical Flow eXchanger (EVFX) consists of small electrically charged water droplets released inside air vortexes to attract water vapor molecules, effectively wiping out the humidity from the air. Larger droplets are then removed at the outer wall of the vortex. If a water molecule is placed in a gradient electric field, such a polar molecule experiences a dielectrophoresis force, which moves the molecules and produces a vapor concentration gradient. When the vapor density exceeds the saturation level, nucleation occurs. A thermodynamic model that captures this phenomenon was described in this paper. Electrosprayed droplets were initially charged close to their maximum electrical charge dictated by the Rayleigh limit; these droplets were used as nucleation centers. The high electric charge decreased the pressure of the vapor, which was in equilibrium with the droplets. This enhanced the charged droplets' nucleation and growth that depleted the vapor phase near the droplets, which was compensated for by the dielectrophoresis flow and diffusion. Significant water vapor condensation was predicted for small droplets at a high electrical charge. Beyond a specific droplet size, while the condensation of water vapor was still theoretically possible, it was somewhat limited because the further growth of the large charged droplets was inhibited due to their high inherent water vapor pressure near the surface. A case study illustrated the potentials and limitation of the EVFX for droplets charged to the Rayleigh limit, for which the effective range of diameters resulted between 10 nm up to few micron.
Morcelli, Stefano↗
Modeling Market Interactions
This slide deck provides a high-level overview of wholesale electricity market design model development activities occurring at NREL. The motivation for this work, as well as the broader NREL modeling landscape in which it belongs, is first presented. Then the various model formulations and features are described.
agent-based simulation↗
Electric Drive Technologies Research: ELT223 Component Modeling, Co-Optimization, and Trade-Space Evaluation Annual Report
This project is intended to support the development of new traction drive systems that meet the targets of 100 kW/L for power electronics and 50 kW/L for electric machines with reliable operation to 300,000 miles. To meet these goals, new designs must be identified that make use of state-of-the-art and next-generation electronic materials and design methods. Designs must exploit synergies between components, for example converters designed for high-frequency switching using wide band gap (WBG) devices and ceramic capacitors. This project included: (1) a survey of available technologies; (2) investigating new technologies, that for example, reduce volume of thermal management or magnetic components; (3) the development of computer aided design tools that consider the converter volume, reliability, and electrical performance; (4) exercising the design software to evaluate performance gaps and predict the impact of certain technologies and design approaches, i.e. GaN semiconductors, ceramic capacitors, ceramic thermal management components, and select topologies; (5) building and testing hardware prototypes to validate models and concepts. The design tools enable co-optimization of the power module and passive elements and provide some design guidance. At the end of the project, new advanced computing methods, such as machine learning approaches, were considered.
33 ADVANCED PROPULSION SYSTEMS↗
Validating Simulated Models of Energy Consumption by a Battery Electric Motorcoach: A real-world deployment in a harsh climate.
Many efforts have been made to simulate energy consumption of battery electric buses (BEBs) to optimize their deployment into existing fleets. The models produced, however, are rarely validated against real-world consumption data, limiting their generalizability and widespread application to fleets around the US. Furthermore, a major concern specific to BEBs is the effects of harsh climates on their performance. We build upon the state-of-the-art energy consumption modeling techniques developed for BEBs and apply them to a unique geographic context and a unique electrified vehicle. This geography, climate, and vehicle further the existing understanding of the factors affecting medium- and heavy-duty electric vehicles (MHDEVs) by allowing for new relationships to be tested and by assessing the generalizability of known relationships to new contexts. We find that temperature is less predictive of energy consumption for the battery electric motorcoach (BEM) in the case study environment than it is for BEBs in other studies. A mitigating factor that we presume to be working on the relationship between temperature and energy consumption is the fact that the BEM route does not stop between origin and destination to exchange passengers, and in turn, conditioned cabin air. Our model also incorporates wind speed and direction relative to travel, which is a novel contribution of our methodology. Results from our study are helpful for transit service planners, fleet operators, and logistics firms for improving their ability to predict performance of potential deployments of MHDEVs into existing operations.
32 - ENERGY CONSERVATION, CONSUMPTION, AND UTILIZA↗
Electricity Baseline 2022
The Electricity Baseline (2022) is a regionalized life cycle inventory model of U.S. electricity generation, consumption, and distribution using standardized facility and generation data and was created using the ElectricityLCI v2 Python package (https://github.com/USEPA/ElectricityLCI/tree/v2.0). The Python package used the "ELCI_2022" model configuration to set the facility and generation data sources and years that were used to create this life cycle inventory, which were taken from publicly accessible datasets and automatically curated into a local data store. An archive of the data stores used in this model is available online: https://doi.org/10.18141/2569193. This model is presented in GreenDelta's openLCA schema v2 JSON-LD format (https://greendelta.github.io/olca-schema/).
Electricity; LCA; data inventory↗
Electricity Baseline 2021
The Electricity Baseline (2021) is a regionalized life cycle inventory model of U.S. electricity generation, consumption, and distribution using standardized facility and generation data and was created using the ElectricityLCI v2 Python package (https://github.com/USEPA/ElectricityLCI/tree/v2.0). The Python package used the "ELCI_2021" model configuration to set the facility and generation data sources and years that were used to create this life cycle inventory, which were taken from publicly accessible datasets and automatically curated into a local data store. An archive of the data stores used in this model is available online: https://doi.org/10.18141/2569576. This model is presented in GreenDelta's openLCA schema v2 JSON-LD format (https://greendelta.github.io/olca-schema/).
Electricity; LCA; LCI; Life Cycle↗
Electricity Baseline 2020
The Electricity Baseline (2020) is a regionalized life cycle inventory model of U.S. electricity generation, consumption, and distribution using standardized facility and generation data and was created using the ElectricityLCI v2 Python package (https://github.com/USEPA/ElectricityLCI/tree/v2.0). The Python package used the "ELCI_2020" model configuration to set the facility and generation data sources and years that were used to create this life cycle inventory, which were taken from publicly accessible datasets and automatically curated into a local data store. An archive of the data stores used in this model is available online: https://doi.org/10.18141/2569605. This model is presented in GreenDelta's openLCA schema v2 JSON-LD format (https://greendelta.github.io/olca-schema/).
Electricity; LCA; LCI; data inventory↗
Extremum-Seeking-Based Ultra-local Model Predictive Control and Its Application to Electric Motor Speed Regulation
Electric vehicle (EV) market is rapidly expanding. As a critical component of EV, an electric motor needs to accurately follow a reference speed signal while respecting the electrical current constraint for safety. Those requirements are usually formulated as a model predictive control (MPC) problem. However, the performance of traditional model-based MPC depends on the accuracy of the system model, which may not always be guaranteed in reality. Therefore, we utilize a data-driven, model-free predictive control strategy, called ultra-local MPC (ULMPC), to control the speed of an electric motor. To further enhance the control performance of ULMPC, we employ the extremum-seeking control (ESC) to tune the control gain of the ULMPC online. Simulation and hardware experiments demonstrate the enhancement of the extremum-seeking-based ULMPC over a constant-gain ULMPC.
Zhou, Yujing↗
Bridging material models across scales: An integrated approach to equation of state and molecular dynamics modeling of copper
New uncertainty-aware equation of state (EOS) and electrical conductivity (EC) models for copper have been developed. The multiphase EOS/EC models are fit to experimental solid/liquid EC isobar measurements as well as density-functional theory molecular dynamics (DFT-MD) EC calculations in both expanded and compressed regimes (0.1–16 g/ cm 3 ). The liquid and solid EOS phases were fit to available experimental data along with additional DFT-MD data over the same range as the EC. Leveraging the DFT-MD data, a corresponding machine-learned interatomic potential (MLIAP) for copper was trained using genetic-algorithm optimization. The copper MLIAP was constrained by EOS shock points at high compressions. The final EOS bounded MLIAP proves to be stable over a large density range (approximately 0.1–20 g/ cm 3 ) with good agreement to an isothermal compression curve, shock Hugoniot, and liquid speed of sound measurements at high pressures (100s of GPa).
Acoustic measurements and instrumentation↗
Powdermet CRADA for VELOCITI Voucher (CRADA Final Report)
NLR shall develop a model of an electric thermal energy storage (ETES) system in the System Advisor Model (SAM) framework that uses a salt and particle slurry developed by PowderMet as the thermal energy storage medium. The ETES shall consist of a recuperated sCO 2 Brayton cycle using 2-tank indirect thermal energy storage and an electric heater for heat input. The salt slurry uses chloride salt and operates at a maximum temperature of 500-720°C. The ETES uses dry air cooling. The salt slurry will be modeled as a sensible heat storage medium and as a latent heat storage medium. NLR will use the model to do parametric analysis of the factors affecting the performance (ex., round trip efficiency) of the ETES system. NLR will work with PowderMet to estimate the costs of system components and total system costs, with the levelized cost of electricity (LCOE) as the primary cost metric.
14 SOLAR ENERGY↗
Techno-economic Analysis of Novel PV Plant Designs for Extreme Cost Reductions
A techno-economic analysis is underway examining the cost and performance of future large-scale photovoltaic (PV) plant components, including bifacial modules, tandem modules, increased plant voltage architectures, and module-level power electronics. Integration of these components into PV plant designs is compared with current PV technologies based on levelized cost of electricity (LCOE). Baseline models are developed and validated against recorded PV plant performance data. Expected cost and performance data of future PV technologies are incorporated into the baseline models. An evolutionary algorithm is utilized to optimize PV plant configuration, technology combination, and LCOE. Furthermore, this paper focuses on the bifacial module analysis.
14 SOLAR ENERGY↗
Electric and magnetic black holes in a new nonlinear electrodynamics model
Highlights: • We introduce a new NED model which is comparable with the BI model in the weak-field limit. • We find an electric black hole solution in the context of Einstein’s gravity minimally coupled with the new NED model. • We study the thermal stability of the electric black hole solution. • Modified Smarr’s formula consistent with the first law of black hole thermodynamics is obtained. A new nonlinear electrodynamics (NED) model is introduced in the form of a nonpolynomial Lagrangian which admits static spherical and also plane wave solutions in a flat space. Upon coupling with gravity the electric field is finite and comparable with the Born–Infeld counterpart. The electric and magnetic black hole solutions in the Einstein’s gravity coupled with this NED model are presented. The solutions give both asymptotically and in the weak field limit Reissner–Nordström (RN) black hole and unlike the other known models our electric solution is expressed in terms of elementary functions in a closed form. We study the first law and derive the modified Smarr’s formula for the electric type extension of our model. Considerable rich structure, especially thermodynamic ones, ranging from first to the second order phase transitions are added to the RN black hole of linear electrodynamics with this NED model. Having the exact solution for the metric function at our disposal we investigate the stability of the electric black hole from both the thermodynamical and causal points of view.
71 CLASSICAL AND QUANTUM MECHANICS, GENERAL PHYSIC↗
Operation of Grid Forming Converters as Self Excited Induction Generators Under Non-Ideal Loading Conditions
Self-excited induction generators offer a robust solution for power production for standalone as well as grid-connected systems. In general, self-excited induction generators require excitation capacitors which make use of the machine magnetization characteristics for voltage build up process as well as operation at a specific frequency. In this paper, a self-excited induction machine is modeled with both the electrical and mechanical dynamics. This modeled virtual machine's dynamics are utilized for voltage build up process for a standalone photovoltaic converter connected to a local load for a microgrid application. The modeled machine's parameters are used from the name plate rating from the manufacturer. However, in a microgrid the accommodation of unbalanced and/or nonlinear harmonic rich load is a necessity, therefore, in this work the virtual self-excitation capacitors of the modeled machine are varied based on the machine characteristics. With the objective of ensuring harmonic free point of common coupling voltage, the modeled virtual self-excitation capacitors are varied to accomplish change in terminal frequency and the virtual load torque is varied to obtain voltage magnitude change. To verify the efficacy, the overall system is modeled in MATLAB/Simulink and PLECS domain and most important case studies are presented.
grid forming converters (GFM)↗
A bilevel multistage stochastic self-scheduling model with indivisibilities for trading in the continuous intraday electricity market
In this paper, we study the profit maximization problem of a virtual power plant trading in the continuous intraday electricity market. Our virtual power plant model is compatible with renewable, and thermal assets, covering a range of virtual power plants currently participating in energy markets. We model the trading problem as a bilevel multistage stochastic program. The upper level of the problem accounts for the profit maximization of the virtual power plant with explicit modeling of the technical constraints of the operational status of the thermal power plant including minimum start-up and shut-down times, ramp-up and ramp-down rates, and minimum generation level. The upper level also decides which continuous and indivisible (fill-or-kill) orders are submitted to the market. The lower-level problem accounts for the clearing of the continuous intraday market, i.e., matching of buy and sell orders. Because of the presence of fill-or-kill orders, the lower-level problem is mixed-integer, which prevents its direct conversion to a single-level problem using duality. In order to solve this challenging problem, we develop a convex-hull extended formulation for the lower-level problem, apply duality theory to obtain a single-level stochastic equivalent formulation, and employ McCormick envelopes to turn the problem into a multistage stochastic mixed-integer linear problem, which we solve using the stochastic dual dynamic integer programming algorithm. We conduct numerical experiments and analyze the optimal trading behavior of a virtual power plant trading in an ideal continuous market without arbitrage.
Bilevel multistage stochastic programming problem↗
Modeling charging infrastructure impact on the electric vehicle market in China
The plug-in electric vehicle (PEV) is deemed as a critical technological revolution, and the governments are imposing various vehicle policies to promote its development. Meanwhile, the market success of PEVs depends on many aspects. The study reported herein integrates one’s use of charging infrastructure at home, public place and workplace into the market dynamics analysis tool, New Energy and Oil Consumption Credits (NEOCC) model, to systematically assess the charging infrastructure (home parking ratio, public charging opportunity, and charging costs) impact on PEV ownership costs and analyze how the PEV market shares may be affected by the attributes of the charging infrastructure. Compared to the charging infrastructure, the impact of battery costs is incontrovertibly decisive on PEV market shares, the charging infrastructure is still non-negligible in the PEV market dynamics. The simulation results find that the public charging infrastructure has more effectiveness on promoting the PEV sales in the PEV emerging market than it does in the PEV mature market. However, the improvement of charging infrastructure does not necessarily lead to a larger PEV market if the charging infrastructure incentives do not coordinate well with other PEV policies. Besides, the increase of public charging opportunities has limited motivations on the growth of public PEV fleets, which are highly correlated to the number of public fast charging stations or outlets. It also finds that more home parking spaces can stimulate more sales of personal plug-in hybrid electric vehicles instead of personal battery electric vehicles.
32 ENERGY CONSERVATION, CONSUMPTION, AND UTILIZATI↗
Evaluating long-term emission impacts of large-scale electric vehicle deployment in the US using a human-Earth systems model
While large-scale adoption of electric vehicles (EVs) globally would reduce carbon dioxide (CO 2 ) and traditional air pollutant emissions from the transportation sector, emissions from the electric sector, refineries, and potentially other sources would change in response. Here, a multi-sector human-Earth systems model is used to evaluate the net long-term emission implications of large-scale EV adoption in the US over widely differing pathways of the evolution of the electric sector. Our results indicate that high EV adoption would decrease net CO 2 emissions through 2050, even for a scenario where all electric sector capacity additions through 2050 are fossil fuel technologies. Greater net CO 2 reductions would be realized for scenarios that emphasize renewables or decarbonization of electricity production. Net air pollutant emission changes in 2050 are relatively small compared to expected overall decreases from recent levels to 2050. States participating in the Regional Greenhouse Gas Initiative experience greater CO 2 and air pollutant reductions on a percentage basis. These results suggest that coordinated, multi-sector planning can greatly enhance the climate and environmental benefits of EVs. Additional factors are identified that influence the net emission impacts of EVs, including the retirement of coal capacity, refinery operations under reduced gasoline demands, and price-induced fuel switching in residential heating and in the industrial sector.
54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
Predicting electrical conductivity in Cu/Nb composites: A combined model-experiment study
The generation of high magnetic fields requires materials with high electric conductivity and good strength properties. Cu/Nb composites are considered to be good candidates for this purpose. In this work, we aim to predict, from theory, the dependence of electric conductivity on the microstructure, most notably on the layer thickness and grain sizes. We also conducted experiments to calibrate and validate our simulations. Bimetal interfaces and grain boundaries are confirmed to have the largest impact on conductivity in this composite material. In this approach, a distribution of the layer thickness is accounted for in order to better model the experimentally observed microstructure. Because layer thicknesses below the mean free path of Cu significantly degrade the conductivity, an average layer thickness larger than expected may be needed to meet conductivity requirements in order to minimize these smaller layers in the distribution. We also investigate the effect of variations in volume fraction of Nb and temperature on the material’s conductivity.
36 MATERIALS SCIENCE↗