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Search indexed NASA NTRS and DOE OSTI research on propulsion, heat transfer, battery materials and energy systems. Follow report and document links to the original sources.

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All sourcesNASA NTRSDOE OSTI
DOE OSTI2020

Experimental protocol for sea level projections from ISMIP6 stand-alone ice sheet models

Projection of the contribution of ice sheets to sea level change as part of the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 6 (CMIP6) takes the form of simulations from coupled ice sheet–climate models and stand-alone ice sheet models, overseen by the Ice Sheet Model Intercomparison Project for CMIP6 (ISMIP6). This paper describes the experimental setup for process-based sea level change projections to be performed with stand-alone Greenland and Antarctic ice sheet models in the context of ISMIP6. The ISMIP6 protocol relies on a suite of polar atmospheric and oceanic CMIP-based forcing for ice sheet models, in order to explore the uncertainty in projected sea level change due to future emissions scenarios, CMIP models, ice sheet models, and parameterizations for ice–ocean interactions. We describe here the approach taken for defining the suite of ISMIP6 stand-alone ice sheet simulations, document the experimental framework and implementation, and present an overview of the ISMIP6 forcing to be used by participating ice sheet modeling groups.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2025

IceCube Search for Neutrino Emission from X-Ray Bright Seyfert Galaxies

The recent IceCube detection of TeV neutrino emission from the nearby active galaxy NGC 1068 suggests that active galactic nuclei (AGNs) could make a sizable contribution to the diffuse flux of astrophysical neutrinos. The absence of TeV γ-rays from NGC 1068 indicates neutrino production in the vicinity of the supermassive black hole, where the high radiation density leads to γ-ray attenuation. Therefore, any potential neutrino emission from similar sources is not expected to correlate with high-energy γ-rays. Disk-corona models predict neutrino emission from Seyfert galaxies to correlate with keV X-rays because they are tracers of coronal activity. Using through-going track events from the Northern Sky recorded by IceCube between 2011 and 2021, we report results from a search for individual and aggregated neutrino signals from 27 additional Seyfert galaxies that are contained in the Swift's Burst Alert Telescope AGN Spectroscopic Survey. Besides the generic single power law, we evaluate the spectra predicted by the disk-corona model assuming stochastic acceleration parameters that match the measured flux from NGC 1068. Assuming all sources to be intrinsically similar to NGC 1068, our findings constrain the collective neutrino emission from X-ray bright Seyfert galaxies in the northern sky, but, at the same time, show excesses of neutrinos that could be associated with the objects NGC 4151 and CGCG 420-015. These excesses result in a 2.7σ significance with respect to background expectations.

Abbasi, R. [Loyola University, Chicago, IL (United↗
DOE OSTI2025

Life Cycle Analysis of Greenhouse Gas Emissions of Clean Fuels with the R&D GREET 2024 Model

This document summarizes research on the life cycle greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions rates from the production and use of clean fuels to support a new version of the Research and Development Greenhouse Gases, Regulated Emissions, and Energy Use in Technologies (R&D GREET) model, R&D GREET 2024 In this effort, Argonne National Laboratory (ANL) focuses on clean fuel pathways that are readily available in the market or are emerging in the near term. The selected pathways represent clean fuel technologies that convert biomass- and/or waste-based feedstocks to liquid and/or gaseous fuels for the transportation sector and other potential uses. The pathways are configured in R&D GREET 2024 with up-to-date feedstock-to-fuel life cycle inventory (LCI) data. Additionally, a new tab has been added to R&D GREET 2024 called “Clean Fuels” which allows the user to easily change inputs and access LCA results. Argonne does not warrant that the results presented in this report are consistent with the requirements of any particular regulatory or incentive program. Users interested in specific programs that reference GREET are encouraged to review guidance specific to those programs if and when it is available to determine appropriate means of compliance and contact the relevant responsible agencies for those specific policies or programs.

09 BIOMASS FUELS↗
DOE OSTI2020

Differential Impact of Climate Change on the Hydropower Economies of Karakoram and Himalayan River Basins

Water stored in the form of snow and glaciers in the High Mountain Asia (HMA) region regulates the water supply, and resultant water-based economies, that support the livelihoods of millions of people. Trends in the seasonal and long-term melting of snow and glaciers, governed by initial ice reserves, meteorological factors and geographic features, vary across sub-basins in the HMA region. We examined the economic impacts of climate-led changes in river flow in two drainage basins, one each from the Karakoram and Central Himalaya region. We used an integrated assessment framework to estimate the changes in economic value of the hydropower generation from hydropower plants on rivers fed by snow and glacier melt in the two sub-basins. The framework, developed under a NASA High Mountain Asia project, coupled biophysical models (a suite of climate models, snow/glacier-hydrology, and hydropower model) with economic analysis. We compared the differences in estimated river flow over historic and future time using the water balance model in sixteen scenarios (eight climate models and two emissions scenarios) for rivers upstream of hydropower plants in each sub-basin. Using the hydropower model we developed, we estimated the changes in hydropower generation at the Naltar IV hydropower plant, with an 18 MW capacity, located in Hunza, Karakoram, and the Trishuli hydropower plant, with a 19.6 MW capacity, in Trishuli, Central Himalaya. When compared to their baselines, the estimated impact of climate change and temporal variability were higher for the Naltar plant than for the Trishuli plant. Our sensitivity analysis shows that hydropower plants with water storage facilities help reduce the impact of changes, but the estimated impacts are higher for the higher capacity plants. This study provides an example of the differential impacts of climate change on hydropower plants located in rivers fed by varying amounts of snow and glacier melt at different decades in this century. This type of integrated assessment of climate change impact will support the scientific understanding of hydrologic flow and its impacts on a hydropower economy under various climate scenarios, as well as generate information about water resource management in a changing climate.

climate change↗
DOE OSTI2020

Detection of Cyclopropenylidene on Titan with ALMA

We report the first detection on Titan of the small cyclic molecule cyclopropenylidene (c-C{sub 3}H{sub 2}) from high-sensitivity spectroscopic observations made with the Atacama Large Millimeter/submillimeter Array. Multiple lines of cyclopropenylidene were detected in two separate data sets: ∼251 GHz in 2016 (Band 6) and ∼352 GHz in 2017 (Band 7). Modeling of these emissions indicates abundances of 0.50 ± 0.14 ppb (2016) and 0.28 ± 0.08 (2017) for a 350 km step model, which may either signify a decrease in abundance, or a mean value of 0.33 ± 0.07 ppb. Inferred column abundances are (3–5) × 10{sup 12} cm{sup −2} in 2016 and (1–2) × 10{sup 12} cm{sup −2} in 2017, similar to photochemical model predictions. Previously the C{sub 3}H{sub 3}{sup +} ion has been measured in Titan’s ionosphere by Cassini’s Ion and Neutral Mass Spectrometer (INMS), but the neutral (unprotonated) species has not been detected until now, and aromatic versus aliphatic structure could not be determined by the INMS. Our work therefore represents the first unambiguous detection of cyclopropenylidene, the second known cyclic molecule in Titan’s atmosphere along with benzene (C{sub 6}H{sub 6}) and the first time this molecule has been detected in a planetary atmosphere. We also searched for the N-heterocycle molecules pyridine and pyrimidine finding nondetections in both cases, and determining 2σ upper limits of 1.15 ppb (c-C{sub 5}H{sub 5}N) and 0.85 ppb (c-C{sub 4}H{sub 4}N{sub 2}) for uniform abundances above 300 km. These new results on cyclic molecules provide fresh constraints on photochemical pathways in Titan’s atmosphere, and will require new modeling and experimental work to fully understand the implications for complex molecule formation.

79 ASTRONOMY AND ASTROPHYSICS↗
DOE OSTI2020

Methodology for the development of empirical models relating 13C NMR spectral features to fuel properties

Effective formulation of new gasoline or diesel fuels for internal combustion engines would benefit from the development of reliable models for predicting key fuel properties based on a set of molecular descriptors obtained from a single measurement. This is particularly relevant in the case of renewable fuels, where the available fuel sample quantity may be limited. In this work, we present a statistically-based methodology for building empirical models to predict multiple properties from one-dimensional 13C nuclear magnetic resonance (NMR) spectra measured on around 200 microliters of a liquid fuel. NMR spectra contain information about the molecular composition of a sample and the carbon types and molecular substructures therein. Our approach uses this information to build sparse, interpretable models, where the predicted properties are linked to specific molecular features. The approach takes into consideration the constrained nature of the features making up the one-dimensional NMR spectrum, which, after standardization, represent a relative fuel composition. We point to the limitations in interpretability that arise when building this type of empirical predictive model and suggest how these limitations may be diminished. Among the many properties important for maximizing engine performance and minimizing emissions, we build models that predict derived cetane number and distillation temperatures as these are of particular interest because of their links to fuel economy, drivability, and engine-out emissions. Results suggest that the properties of interest may be impacted by only a few of the 27 13C NMR regions represented in the data, pointing to new directions for further testing in the development of improved fuels.

predictive models, biofuels., NMR Analysis↗
DOE OSTI2024

Offshore wind and wave energy can reduce total installed capacity required in zero-emissions grids

Abstract As the world races to decarbonize power systems to mitigate climate change, the body of research analyzing paths to zero emissions electricity grids has substantially grown. Although studies typically include commercially available technologies, few of them consider offshore wind and wave energy as contenders in future zero-emissions grids. Here, we model with high geographic resolution both offshore wind and wave energy as independent technologies with the possibility of collocation in a power system capacity expansion model of the Western Interconnection with zero emissions by 2050. In this work, we identify cost targets for offshore wind and wave energy to become cost effective, calculate a 17% reduction in total installed capacity by 2050 when offshore wind and wave energy are fully deployed, and show how curtailment, generation, and transmission change as offshore wind and wave energy deployment increase.

16 TIDAL AND WAVE POWER↗
DOE OSTI2025

Pulsed contact glow discharge electrification for online material quantification

Real-time elemental analysis of liquids in extreme environments remains a significant challenge for sensor development, particularly in applications such as advanced nuclear reactors. Plasma-based optical emission spectroscopy offers a promising solution. In this study, we investigate pulsed contact glow discharge electrolysis (CGDE) as an alternative plasma generation method for emission-based material quantification. Using aqueous NaCl solutions, we examine the role of discharge polarity on plasma behavior, emission characteristics, and spectral output. Our results demonstrate that cathodic discharges generate more energetic plasmas, enabling the detection of ionic species such as cerium, while anodic discharges favor atomic emission. These findings reveal a potential dual-mode sensing capability controlled by circuit configuration rather than hardware changes. Through synchronized measurements of emission, current, bubble, and spectral dynamics, we present a model in which electron emission and ohmic heating drive plasma formation. This model enhances our understanding of pulsed-CGDE and supports its potential as a versatile, adaptable platform for future deployment in high-temperature liquids such as molten salts.

98 - NUCLEAR DISARMAMENT, SAFEGUARDS, AND PHYSICAL↗
DOE OSTI2021

25 Siβ + -decay spectroscopy

Background: β-decay spectroscopy provides valuable information on exotic nuclei and a stringent test for nuclear theories beyond the stability line. Purpose: To search for new β-delayed protons and γ rays of 25 Si to investigate the properties of 25 Al excited states. Method: 25 Si β decays were measured by using the Gaseous Detector with Germanium Tagging system at the National Superconducting Cyclotron Laboratory. The protons and γ rays emitted in the decay were detected simultaneously. Here, a Monte Carlo method was used to model the Doppler broadening of 24 Mg γ-ray lines caused by nuclear recoil from proton emission. Shell-model calculations using two newly developed universal sd-shell Hamiltonians were performed. Results: The most precise 25Si half-life to date has been determined. A new proton branch at 724(4) keV and new proton-γ-ray coincidences have been identified. Three 24 Mg γ-ray lines and eight 25 Al γ-ray lines are observed for the first time in 25 Si decay. The first measurement of the 25 Si β-delayed γ-ray intensities through the 25 Al unbound states is reported. All the bound states of 25 Al are observed to be populated in the β decay of 25 Si. Several inconsistencies between the previous measurements have been resolved, and new information on the 25 Al level scheme is provided. An enhanced decay scheme has been constructed and compared to the mirror decay of 25 Na and the shell-model calculations. Conclusions: The measured excitation energies, γ-ray and proton branchings, log $ft$ values, and Gamow-Teller transition strengths for the states of 25 Al populated in the β decay of 25 Si are in good agreement with the shell model calculations, offering gratifyingly consistent insights into the fine nuclear structure of 25 Al.

73 NUCLEAR PHYSICS AND RADIATION PHYSICS↗
DOE OSTI2021

The role of negative emissions in meeting China’s 2060 carbon neutrality goal

China’s pledge to reach carbon neutrality before 2060 is an ambitious goal and could provide the world with much-needed leadership on how to limit warming to +1.5°C warming above preindustrial levels by the end of the century. But the pathways that would achieve net zero by 2060 are still unclear, including the role of negative emissions technologies. We use the Global Change Analysis Model to simulate how negative emissions technologies, in general, and direct air capture (DAC) in particular, could contribute to China’s meeting this target. Our results show that negative emissions could play a large role, offsetting on the order of 3 GtCO 2 per year from difficult-to-mitigate sectors, such as freight transportation and heavy industry. This includes up to a 1.6 GtCO 2 per year contribution from DAC, constituting up to 60% of total projected negative emissions in China. But DAC, like bioenergy with carbon capture and storage and afforestation, has not yet been demonstrated anywhere approaching the scales required to meaningfully contribute to climate mitigation. Deploying NETs at these scales will have widespread impacts on financial systems and natural resources, such as water, land and energy in China.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2025

Energy Conversion and Electron Acceleration and Transport in 3D Simulations of Solar Flares

Recent observations and simulations indicate that solar flares undergo extremely complex 3D evolution, making 3D particle transport models essential for understanding electron acceleration and interpreting flare emissions. In this study, we investigate this problem by solving Parker’s transport equation with 3D MHD simulations of solar flares. By examining energy conversion in the 3D system, we evaluate the roles of different acceleration mechanisms, including reconnection current sheet (CS), termination shock (TS), and supra-arcade downflows (SADs). We find that large-amplitude turbulent fluctuations are generated and sustained in the 3D system. The model results demonstrate that a significant number of electrons are accelerated to hundreds of keV and even a few MeV, forming power-law energy spectra. These energetic particles are widely distributed, with concentrations at the TS and in the flare looptop region, consistent with results derived from recent hard X-ray (HXR) and microwave (MW) observations. By selectively turning particle acceleration on or off in specific regions, we find that the CS and SADs effectively accelerate electrons to several hundred keV, while the TS enables further acceleration to MeV. However, no single mechanism can independently account for the significant number of energetic electrons observed. Instead, the mechanisms work synergistically to produce a large population of accelerated electrons. Our model provides spatially and temporally resolved electron distributions in the whole flare region and at the flare footpoints, enabling synthetic HXR and MW emission modeling for comparison with observations. These results offer important insights into electron acceleration and transport in 3D solar flare regions.

79 ASTRONOMY AND ASTROPHYSICS↗
DOE OSTI2021

Co-Optimization Scheme for Hybrid Electric Vehicles Powertrain and Exhaust Emission Control System Using Future Speed Prediction

Hybrid electric vehicles (HEVs) have been an effective solution for improved vehicle fuel efficiency and reduced emission pollution. In this paper, a co-optimization scheme is proposed to optimize fuel efficiency for HEVs. Here, the proposed optimization scheme uses obtainable future speed prediction as the basis to optimally tune control parameters for the existing powertrain control system. The ramp-up time of the catalyst temperature to reach its light-off level in the exhaust emission system is also considered as an additional optimization constraint to reduce emission. The Toyota Prius Hybrid Simulink model which is an integrated model for a powertrain and exhaust emission system is validated using real data from several real driving cycle scenarios. Then, to simplify the formulation of the proposed algorithm, the model for the optimization for powertrain and exhaust emission systems is represented by a set of equivalent neural network (NN) models learned using the data generated from the well-validated Toyota Prius Hybrid Simulink model. Using NN models, a co-optimization algorithm is established that provides an optimal tuning of some fuel-sensitive powertrain control parameters using future speed prediction, leading to a novel co-optimization algorithm, achieving on average a further 9.22% fuel savings for the Toyota Prius Hybrid Simulink model.

33 ADVANCED PROPULSION SYSTEMS↗
DOE OSTI2021

Modelled land use and land cover change emissions – a spatio-temporal comparison of different approaches

Abstract. Quantifying the net carbon flux from land use and land cover changes (fLULCC) is critical for understanding the global carbon cycle and, hence, to support climate change mitigation. However, large-scale fLULCC is not directly measurable and has to be inferred from models instead, such as semi-empirical bookkeeping models and process-based dynamic global vegetation models (DGVMs). By definition, fLULCC estimates are not directly comparable between these two different model types. As an important example, DGVM-based fLULCC in the annual global carbon budgets is estimated under transient environmental forcing and includes the so-called loss of additional sink capacity (LASC). The LASC results from the impact of environmental changes on land carbon storage potential of managed land compared to potential vegetation and accumulates over time, which is not captured in bookkeeping models. The fLULCC from transient DGVM simulations, thus, strongly depends on the timing of land use and land cover changes mainly because LASC accumulation is cut off at the end of the simulated period. To estimate the LASC, the fLULCC from pre-industrial DGVM simulations, which is independent of changing environmental conditions, can be used. Additionally, DGVMs using constant present-day environmental forcing enable an approximation of bookkeeping estimates. Here, we analyse these three DGVM-derived fLULCC estimations (under transient, pre-industrial, and present-day forcing) for 12 models within 18 regions and quantify their differences as well as climate- and CO2-induced components and compare them to bookkeeping estimates. Averaged across the models, we find a global fLULCC (under transient conditions) of 2.0±0.6 PgC yr−1 for 2009–2018, of which ∼40 % are attributable to the LASC (0.8±0.3 PgC yr−1). From 1850 onward, the fLULCC accumulated to 189±56 PgC with 40±15 PgC from the LASC. Around 1960, the accumulating nature of the LASC causes global transient fLULCC estimates to exceed estimates under present-day conditions, despite generally increased carbon stocks in the latter. Regional hotspots of high cumulative and annual LASC values are found in the USA, China, Brazil, equatorial Africa, and Southeast Asia, mainly due to deforestation for cropland. Distinct negative LASC estimates in Europe (early reforestation) and from 2000 onward in the Ukraine (recultivation of post-Soviet abandoned agricultural land), indicate that fLULCC estimates in these regions are lower in transient DGVM compared to bookkeeping approaches. Our study unravels the strong dependence of fLULCC estimates on the time a certain land use and land cover change event happened to occur and on the chosen time period for the forcing of environmental conditions in the underlying simulations. We argue for an approach that provides an accounting of the fLULCC that is more robust against these choices, for example by estimating a mean DGVM ensemble fLULCC and LASC for a defined reference period and homogeneous environmental changes (CO2 only).

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2021

High resolution measurements reveal abiotic and biotic mechanisms of elevated nitric oxide emission after wetting dry soil

Wetting dry soil triggers emission of nitric oxide (NO), which can harm air quality and influence ecosystem N balance. NO released after wetting may be derived from two primary mechanisms: (1) abiotic decomposition of nitrite (NO 2 -) present in the dry soil and (2) biologically-mediated production of NO. The relative contributions of these mechanisms to NO emission are challenging to partition. To differentiate the two mechanisms, we made continuous observations of NO emission from a range of soils that varied in texture, pH, and exchangeable cations. Additionally, we coupled NO gas exchange measurements with automated, non-destructive high-resolution sampling of inorganic N species via microdialysis. We identified two distinct phases of NO production (1) an initial phase that reached its maximum less than 30 min after rewetting; and (2) a second phase lasting up to 36 h. The magnitude of the initial phase of NO production was correlated with the initial nitrous acid concentration (calculated from NO 2 - concentrations and soil pH) and soil exchangeable calcium. The second phase of NO emission coincided with a peak in NO 2 - that preceded NO 3 - accumulation. Together, these results suggest that NO emissions following wetting are defined by an initial pulse of abiotic NO formation mediated by soil acidity at mineral surfaces, followed by a prolonged pulse of NO emission driven by a lag between the biological processes of ammonia oxidation and nitrite oxidation. These results can inform mechanistic models of NO emissions from soils to improve predictions of the terrestrial N cycle and atmospheric chemistry.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2023

Constraining Inputs to Realistic Kilonova Simulations through Comparison to Observed r -process Abundances

Kilonovae, one source of electromagnetic emission associated with neutron star mergers, are powered by the decay of radioactive isotopes in the neutron-rich merger ejecta. Models for kilonova emission consistent with the electromagnetic counterpart to GW170817 predict characteristic abundance patterns, determined by the relative balance of different types of material in the outflow. Assuming that the observed source is prototypical, this inferred abundance pattern in turn must match r -process abundances deduced by other means, such as what is observed in the solar system. We report on analysis comparing the input mass-weighted elemental compositions adopted in our radiative transfer simulations to the mass fractions of elements in the Sun, as a practical prototype for the potentially universal abundance signature from neutron star mergers. We characterize the extent to which our parameter inference results depend on our assumed composition for the dynamical and wind ejecta and examine how the new results compare to previous work. We find that a dynamical ejecta composition calculated using the FRDM2012 nuclear mass and FRLDM fission models with extremely neutron-rich ejecta ($Y_e$ = 0.035) along with moderately neutron-rich ($Y_e$ = 0.27) wind ejecta composition yields a wind-to-dynamical mass ratio of $M_w$/$M_d$ = 0.47, which best matches the observed AT2017gfo kilonova light curves while also producing the bestmatching abundance of neutron capture elements in the solar system, though, allowing for systematics, the ratio may be as high as of order unity.

79 ASTRONOMY AND ASTROPHYSICS↗
DOE OSTI2022

Assessing mass balance-based inverse modeling methods via a pseudo-observation test to constrain NO x emissions over South Korea

This study constrains NO x emissions by utilizing mass balance–based inverse modeling methods and examines the optimization of inverse modeling conditions through a pseudo-observation test for South Korea, which has complex topography. Here, we applied mass balance–based inverse modeling methods such as Basic Mass Balance (BMB), Finite Difference Mass Balance (FDMB), and Iterative Finite Difference Mass Balance (IFDMB). We performed a numerical simulation of air quality using the Community Multi-scale Air Quality (CMAQ) model to calculate the NO 2 column density required for the inverse modeling. The pseudo-observation test was performed according to season, modeling resolution, and regridding methodology of satellite observation data to identify various conditions while applying the inverse modeling for South Korea. Comparing the inverse modeling results from the BMB, FDMB, and IFDMB methods, IFDMB was the most effective method in constraining NO x emissions in the South Korean region since it minimized smearing effects (i.e., transport-induced errors) through iterative calculations. The accuracy of the constrained NO x emissions using mass balance–based inversions in South Korea was the highest in the summer due to the minimized smearing effects, and the 9 km resolution modeling was the most efficient for inverse modeling of the region. In addition, the results of inverse modeling varied depending on the regridding methods, implying the importance of using a suitable regridding method and modeling resolution. This study used pseudo-observations, but the inversions are expected to be applied based on actual satellite data in the future.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2021

How to design a zero-emissions vehicle mandate? Simulating impacts on sales, GHG emissions and cost-effectiveness using the AUtomaker-Consumer Model (AUM)

We report although numerous studies investigate the impacts of policy on zero-emissions vehicle (ZEV) sales, few address the impacts of a ZEV sales mandate and its particular design features. We use the AUtomaker-consumer Model (AUM) to simulate varying designs of a ZEV mandate in Canada's light-duty vehicle sector, requiring 30% ZEV sales by 2030. Design features include: different penalties for non-compliance, different allocations of credits per ZEV type, and the allowance of banking credits across years. For each policy design, we consider impacts on ZEV adoption, GHG emissions, consumer surplus, automaker profits, and overall policy cost-effectiveness. Results demonstrate trade-offs among the policy designs. Generally, ZEV mandate designs that are more effective at increasing ZEV adoption and decreasing GHG emissions also induce larger reductions in consumer surplus and automaker profits. To achieve the ZEV sales goal, simulations show that a higher non-compliance penalty (CDN$ 10k per credit) is needed. ZEV adoption and GHG reductions are also improved by a “One credit per ZEV” scheme, rather than a “California-style” scheme that gives multiple credits per battery-electric vehicle. Further, allowing automakers to bank credits softens the policy impact on profit and increases automaker compliance in initial years. Across these different design combinations, we find that the most cost-effective design ($CDN/tonne mitigated, including consumer surplus and automaker profits impacts) utilizes a $10k non-compliance penalty and “One credit per ZEV” system that allows banking. Our analysis demonstrates the importance of various ZEV mandate design features, and the complex trade-offs involved among various policy goals.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2022

Predicting Future Laboratory Fault Friction Through Deep Learning Transformer Models

Machine learning models using seismic emissions as input can predict instantaneous fault characteristics such as displacement and friction in laboratory experiments, and slow slip in Earth. Here, we address whether the seismic/acoustic emission (AE) from laboratory experiments contains information about future frictional behavior. The approach uses a convolutional encoder-decoder containing a transformer model in the latent space, similar to models used for natural language processing. We test the model limits using progressively larger AE input time windows and progressively larger output friction time windows. The results demonstrate that very near-term friction predictions are indeed contained in the AE signal, and predictions are progressively worse farther into the future. The future predictions by the model of impending failure in the near-term are remarkably robust. This first effort predicting future fault frictional behavior with machine learning will aid in guiding efforts for applications in Earth.

58 GEOSCIENCES↗