SEARCH · Search NASA

Results for “end to end”

Search indexed NASA NTRS and DOE OSTI research on propulsion, heat transfer, battery materials and energy systems. Follow report and document links to the original sources.

SourceResearch connectionFrom yearThrough year

Quote a phrase for an exact phrase match. Source license links do not imply unrestricted reuse.

At least 325 records · Page 18

All sources NASA NTRS DOE OSTI

DOE OSTI2023

Effects of Dead‐End Fractures on Non‐Fickian Transport in Three‐Dimensional Discrete Fracture Networks

Abstract Understanding mechanistic causes of non‐Fickian transport in fractured media is important for many hydrogeologic processes and subsurface applications. This study elucidates the effects of dead‐end fractures on non‐Fickian transport in three‐dimensional (3D) fracture networks. Although dead‐end fractures have been identified as low‐velocity regions that could delay solute transport, the direct relation between dead‐end fractures and non‐Fickian transport has been elusive. We systematically generate a large number of 3D discrete fracture networks with different fracture length distributions and fracture densities. We then identify dead‐end fractures using a novel graph‐based method. The effect of dead‐end fractures on solute residence time maximizes at the critical fracture density of the percolation threshold, leading to strong late‐time tailing. As fracture density increases beyond the percolation threshold, the network connectivity increases, and dead‐end fractures diminish. Consequently, the increase in network connectivity leads to a reduction in the degree of late‐time tailing. We also show that dead‐end fractures can inform about main transport paths, such as the mean tortuosity of particle trajectories. This study advances our mechanistic understanding of solute transport in 3D fracture networks.

58 GEOSCIENCES↗

DOE OSTI2026

Pull Force Evaluation of CCS Insulated End Caps

Insulated end caps installed on DC pins of Combined Charging System (CCS) inlets have been identified as potential debris sources within electric vehicle supply equipment (EVSE) connectors, increasing the risk of electric shock and fire hazards. Although standards such as IEC 62196-1:2022 specify mechanical pull-force requirements for these end caps, it remains unclear whether these requirements provide adequate robustness under real-world conditions. To address this concern, the National Charging Experience (ChargeX) Consortium's Hardware Task Force conducted evaluations of insulated end caps used in OEM CCS inlets. This study assesses the performance of insulated end caps used in OEM CCS inlets, specifically those installed on DC pins, using the procedures defined in IEC 62196-1:2022 (Section Sign) 26.7 and SAE J3400, supplemented by additional experimental conditioning. To ensure relevance to real-world conditions, NLR collaborated with charging network operators (CNOs) to guide the selection of charging inlet samples. Material analyses of the insulated end cap samples were conducted to confirm that the tested materials reflected the types and properties commonly observed in the field. The selected samples underwent temperature and humidity conditioning followed by pull-force testing to evaluate the end-cap integrity. Although SAE J3400 inlets were not directly tested due to limited diversity in available field data, the underlying end-cap principles between CCS and SAE J3400 are comparable, allowing the study's insights to be relevant to both technologies. Overall, this study provides a structured evaluation framework to inform potential refinements to mechanical pull-force requirements in charging standards.

33 ADVANCED PROPULSION SYSTEMS↗

NASA NTRS1989

An experimental study of near wall flow parameters in the blade end-wall corner region

The near wall flow parameters in the blade end-wall corner region is investigated. The blade end-wall corner region was simulated by mounting an airfoil section (NACA 65-015 base profile) symmetric blades on both sides of the flat plate with semi-circular leading edge. The initial 7 cm from the leading edge of the flat plate was roughened by gluing No. 4 floor sanding paper to artificially increase the boundary layer thickness on the flat plate. The initial flow conditions of the boundary layer upstream of the corner region are expected to dictate the behavior of flow inside the corner region. Therefore, an experimental investigation was extended to study the combined effect of initial roughness and increased level of free stream turbulence on the development of a 2-D turbulent boundary layer in the absence of the blade. The measurement techniques employed in the present investigation included, the conventional pitot and pitot-static probes, wall taps, the Preston tube, piezoresistive transducer and the normal sensor hot-wire probe. The pitot and pitot-static probes were used to obtain mean velocity profile measurements within the boundary layer. The measurements of mean surface static pressure were obtained with the surface static tube and the conventional wall tap method. The wall shear vector measurements were made with a specially constructed Preston tube. The flush mounted piezoresistive type pressure transducer were employed to measure the wall pressure fluctuation field. The velocity fluctuation measurements, used in obtaining the wall pressure-velocity correlation data, were made with normal single sensor hot-wire probe. At different streamwise stations, in the blade end-wall corner region, the mean values of surface static pressure varied more on the end-wall surface in the corner region were mainly caused by the changes in the curvature of the streamlines. The magnitude of the wall shear stress in the blade end-wall corner region increased significantly in the close vicinity of the corner line. The maximum value of the wall shear stress and its location from the corner line, on both the surfaces forming the corner region, were observed to change along the corner. These observed changes in the maximum values of the wall shear stress and its location from the corner line could be associated with the stretching and attenuation of the horseshoe vortex. The wall shear stress vectors in the blade end-wall corner region were observed to be more skewed on the end-wall surface as compared to that on the blade surface. The differences in the wall shear stress directions obtained with the Preston tube and flow visualization method were within the range in which the Preston tube was found to be insensitive to the yaw angle.

Bhargava, Rakesh K.↗

DOE OSTI2020

Achieving the End State for the Pahute Mesa Corrective Action Units at the Nevada National Security Site - 20355

Underground nuclear testing at the Nevada National Security Site (NNSS) ended in 1992. To address the impact of radionuclide contamination from underground nuclear testing on the groundwater resources of Nevada, the U.S. Department of Energy (DOE) Environmental Management (EM) Nevada Program created the Underground Test Area (UGTA) activity to characterize the radionuclides in groundwater, understand the nature and extent of radionuclide migration, and forecast the distribution of radionuclides in groundwater for 1,000 years. The UGTA activity is regulated by the Federal Facility Agreement and Consent Order (FFACO), an agreement negotiated between the Nevada Division of Environmental Protection (NDEP), DOE, and the U.S. Department of Defense (DoD). DOE is close to achieving the end state (closure in place with monitoring and institutional control) for three of the five UGTA corrective action units (CAUs) on the NNSS. A number of challenges remain to achieve the end state of the other two CAUs, both located on Pahute Mesa. Pahute Mesa was the location of 82 underground nuclear tests, less than 10% of the total number of tests on the NNSS. Yet, Pahute Mesa contains slightly more than 60% of the total radionuclides (in curies). Based on groundwater sampling in monitoring wells, two radionuclide plumes have migrated several kilometers (km) in groundwater from selected test cavities and have crossed the boundary of the NNSS (yet remain within the boundaries of Federally controlled land). The path to achieve the end state continues to evolve as more data are collected and a better understanding of radionuclide migration in groundwater is developed. DOE has invested in drilling and sampling more than 50 characterization and monitoring groundwater wells over the past 25 years. The data indicate that the primary radionuclide of concern is tritium as it is about 89% of the total radionuclide inventory (in curies). As well, only tritium has been measured in groundwater outside of cavities at concentrations exceeding the Safe Drinking Water Act (SDWA) standard. For one of the tritium plumes that has migrated across the NNSS boundary, the average rate of migration has been measured as about 45 meters (m) per year with the rate of migration at the leading edge of the plume of about 85 meters per year. At that rate of migration, the tritium plume will decay to safe levels and not reach the publicly accessible environment at concentrations above the SDWA standard. Other radionuclides, at concentrations below the SDWA standards, will be monitored to ensure they remain at safe levels. Consequently, the end state path forward for Pahute Mesa has evolved to take full advantage of the data from the monitoring network to constrain uncertainty in model forecasts and to reduce reliance on probabilistic simulations. The focus of the end state approach relies on developing a monitoring well network that is protective of human health by increasing confidence that no radionuclide plume in the groundwater will migrate undetected to the accessible environment, located about 22 km from the nearest up-gradient underground nuclear test. Using the measured data to remove uncertainty, the evaluation of radionuclide migration from Pahute Mesa is directed toward meeting the goals of the end state. (authors)

12 MANAGEMENT OF RADIOACTIVE AND NON-RADIOACTIVE W↗

DOE OSTI2022

A High-End Estimate of Sea Level Rise for Practitioners

Sea level rise (SLR) is a long-lasting consequence of climate change because global anthropogenic warming takes centuries to millennia to equilibrate for the deep ocean and ice sheets. SLR projections based on climate models support policy analysis, risk assessment and adaptation planning today, despite their large uncertainties. The central range of the SLR distribution is estimated by process-based models. However, risk-averse practitioners often require information about plausible future conditions that lie in the tails of the SLR distribution, which are poorly defined by existing models. Here, a community effort combining scientists and practitioners builds on a framework of discussing physical evidence to quantify high-end global SLR for practitioners. The approach is complementary to the IPCC AR6 report and provides further physically plausible high-end scenarios. High-end estimates for the different SLR components are developed for two climate scenarios at two timescales. For global warming of +2°C in 2100 (RCP2.6/SSP1-2.6) relative to pre-industrial values our high-end global SLR estimates are up to 0.9 m in 2100 and 2.5 m in 2300. Similarly, for a (RCP8.5/SSP5-8.5), we estimate up to 1.6 m in 2100 and up to 10.4 m in 2300. The large and growing differences between the scenarios beyond 2100 emphasize the long-term benefits of mitigation. However, even a modest 2°C warming may cause multi-meter SLR on centennial time scales with profound consequences for coastal areas. Earlier high-end assessments focused on instability mechanisms in Antarctica, while here we emphasize the importance of the timing of ice shelf collapse around Antarctica. This is highly uncertain due to low understanding of the driving processes. Hence both process understanding and emission scenario control high-end SLR.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

DOE OSTI2019

The use of partial fuel stratification to enable stable ultra-lean deflagration-based Spark-Ignition engine operation with controlled end-gas autoignition of gasoline and E85

Lean operation of Spark-Ignition engines can provide higher thermal efficiency compared to standard stoichiometric operation. However, for a homogeneous lean mixture, the associated reduction of flame speeds becomes an important issue from the perspective of robust ignition and fast flame spread throughout the charge. This study is focused on the use of a lean partial fuel stratification strategy that can stabilize the deflagration, while sufficiently fast combustion is ensured via the use of end-gas autoignition. The engine has a spray-guided Direct-Injection Spark-Ignition combustion system and was fueled with either a high-octane certification gasoline or E85. Partial fuel stratification was achieved using several fuel injections during the intake stroke in combination with a small pilot-injection concurrent with the Spark-Ignition. The results reveal that partial fuel stratification enables very stable combustion, offering higher thermal efficiency for parts of the load range in comparison to well-mixed lean and stoichiometric combustion. The heat release and flame imaging demonstrate that the combustion often has three distinct stages. The combustion of the pilot-injected fuel, ignited by the normal spark, acts as a “super igniter,” ensuring a very repeatable initiation of combustion, and flame incandescence reveals locally rich conditions. The second stage is mainly composed of blue flame propagation in a well-mixed lean mixture. The third stage is the compression autoignition of a well-mixed and typically very lean end-gas. The end-gas autoignition is critical for achieving high combustion efficiency, high thermal efficiency, and stable combustion. Partial fuel stratification enables very effective combustion-phasing control, which is critical for controlling the occurrence and intensity of end-gas autoignition. Comparing the gasoline and E85 fuels, it is noted that achieving end-gas autoignition for the higher octane E85 requires a more aggressive compression of the end-gas via the use of a more advanced combustion phasing or higher intake-air temperature.

33 ADVANCED PROPULSION SYSTEMS↗

DOE OSTI2026

Selective Electrochemical End‐Group Removal Enhances Polymer Thermal Stability

Here we introduce an electrochemical strategy for the selective and quantitative removal of thiocarbonylthio end groups from polymers prepared by reversible addition–fragmentation chain transfer (RAFT) or photoiniferter polymerization. Our results indicate that applying a cathodic potential in an undivided cell promotes reductive cleavage of the thiocarbonylthio moiety, generating terminal polymer radicals that are efficiently capped with hydrogen atoms in the presence of benign donors. This transformation proceeds cleanly across diverse polymer backbones and end-group chemistries, including trithiocarbonates and dithiobenzoates, without chain coupling or degradation. Moreover, the applied potential can be tuned to enable chemoselective end-group removal in mixed-polymer systems, a level of control inaccessible by thermal, photochemical, or nucleophilic strategies. Beyond delivering colorless and optically transparent materials, electrochemical end-group removal significantly enhances polymer stability. Poly(methyl methacrylate) subjected to electrochemical end-group removal exhibited a T 95 of 342 °C, exceeding the stabilities of analogous polymers with end groups removed by aminolysis (T 95 = 260 °C) or radical-based methods (T 95 = 299 °C). These findings demonstrate redox-directed post-polymerization modification as a tool for designing robust, transparent, and thermally stable macromolecules and establish electrochemistry as a platform strategy in polymer synthesis and processing.

37 INORGANIC, ORGANIC, PHYSICAL, AND ANALYTICAL CH↗

DOE OSTI2020

Substitution Effect on Thiobarbituric Acid End Groups for High Open-Circuit Voltage Non-Fullerene Organic Solar Cells

Recent advances in non-fullerene acceptors (NFAs) have resulted in significant improvement in the power conversion efficiencies (PCEs) of organic solar cells (OSCs). In our efforts to boost open-circuit voltage (V OC ) for OSCs, the molecular design employing thiobarbituric acid (TBTA) end groups and an indacenodithieno[3,2-b]thiophene (IDTT) core gives rise to NFAs with significantly raised lowest unoccupied molecular orbital (LUMO) energy level, which, when paired with PCE10, can achieve V OC 's over 1.0 V and decent PCEs that outperform the equivalent devices based on the benchmark ITIC acceptor. While the use of a TBTA end group is effective in tuning energy levels, very little is known about how the alkyl substitution on the TBTA group impacts the solar cell performance. To this end, TBTA end groups are alkylated with linear, branched, and aromatic sidechains to understand the influence on thin-film morphology and related device performances. We report our study has confirmed the dependence of solar cell performance on the end-group substituents. More importantly, we reveal the presence of an ideal window of crystallinity associated with the medium-length hydrocarbon chains such as ethyl and benzyl. Deviation to the shorter methyl group makes the acceptor too crystalline to mix with the polymer donor and form proper domains, whereas longer and branched alkyl chains are too sterically bulky and hinder charge transport due to nonideal packing. Such findings underline the comprehensive nature of thin-film morphology and the subtle end-group effects for the design of non-fullerene acceptors.

14 SOLAR ENERGY↗

DOE OSTI2021

End-exclusion zones in strongly stretched, molten polymer brushes of arbitrary shape

Theories of strongly stretched polymer brushes, particularly the parabolic brush theory, are valuable for providing analytically tractable predictions for the thermodynamic behavior of surface-grafted polymers in a wide range of settings. Furthermore, the parabolic brush limit fails to describe polymers grafted to convex curved substrates, such as the surfaces of spherical nanoparticles or the interfaces of strongly segregated block copolymers. It has previously been shown that strongly stretched curved brushes require a boundary layer devoid of free chain ends, requiring modifications of the theoretical analysis. While this “end-exclusion zone” has been successfully incorporated into the descriptions of brushes grafted onto the outer surfaces of cylinders and spheres, the behavior of brushes on surfaces of arbitrary curvature has not yet been studied. We present a formulation of the strong-stretching theory for molten brushes on the surfaces of arbitrary curvature and identify four distinct regimes of interest for which brushes are predicted to possess end-exclusion zones, notably including regimes of positive mean curvature but negative Gaussian curvature. Through numerical solutions of the strong-stretching brush equations, we report predicted scaling of the size of the end-exclusion zone, the chain end distribution, the chain polarization, and the free energy of stretching with mean and Gaussian surface curvatures. Through these results, we present a comprehensive picture of how the brush geometry influences the end-exclusion zones and exact strong-stretching free energies, which can be applied, for example, to model the full spectrum of brush geometries encountered in block copolymer melt assembly.

36 MATERIALS SCIENCE↗

NASA NTRS1991

A vision-based end-point control for a two-link flexible manipulator

The measurement and control of the end-effector position of a large two-link flexible manipulator are investigated. The system implementation is described and an initial algorithm for static end-point positioning is discussed. Most existing robots are controlled through independent joint controllers, while the end-effector position is estimated from the joint positions using a kinematic relation. End-point position feedback can be used to compensate for uncertainty and structural deflections. Such feedback is especially important for flexible robots. Computer vision is utilized to obtain end-point position measurements. A look-and-move control structure alleviates the disadvantages of the slow and variable computer vision sampling frequency. This control structure consists of an inner joint-based loop and an outer vision-based loop. A static positioning algorithm was implemented and experimentally verified. This algorithm utilizes the manipulator Jacobian to transform a tip position error to a joint error. The joint error is then used to give a new reference input to the joint controller. The convergence of the algorithm is demonstrated experimentally under payload variation. A Landmark Tracking System (Dickerson, et al 1990) is used for vision-based end-point measurements. This system was modified and tested. A real-time control system was implemented on a PC and interfaced with the vision system and the robot.

Obergfell, Klaus↗

NASA NTRS1993

Manufacturing methods for machining spring ends parallel at loaded length

A first end surface of a coiled compression spring at its relaxed length is machined to a plane transverse to the spring axis. The spring is then placed in a press structure having first and second opposed planar support surfaces, with the machined spring end surface bearing against the first support surface, the unmachined spring end surface bearing against a planar first surface of a lateral force compensation member, and an opposite, generally spherically curved surface of the compensation member bearing against the second press structure support surface. The spring is then compressed generally to its loaded length, and a circumferentially spaced series of marks, lying in a plane parallel to the second press structure support surface, are formed on the spring coil on which the second spring end surface lies. The spring is then removed from the press structure, and the second spring end surface is machined to the mark plane. When the spring is subsequently compressed to its loaded length the precisely parallel relationship between the machined spring end surfaces substantially eliminates undesirable lateral deflection of the spring.

Hinke, Patrick Thomas↗

NASA NTRS1994

Adjustable bias column end joint assembly

An adjustable mechanical end joint system for connecting structural column elements and eliminating the possibility of free movement between joint halves during loading or vibration has a node joint body having a cylindrical engaging end and a column end body having a cylindrical engaging end. The column end joint body has a compressible preload mechanism and plunger means housed therein. The compressible preload mechanism may be adjusted from the exterior of the column end joint body through a port.

Wallsom, Richard E.↗

NASA NTRS1995

Manufacturing methods for machining spring ends parallel at loaded length

Hinke, Patrick Thomas↗

NASA NTRS2013

Cold-end Subsystem Testing for the Fission Power System Technology Demonstration Unit

The Fission Power System (FPS) Technology Demonstration Unit (TDU) consists of a pumped sodium-potassium (NaK) loop that provides heat to a Stirling Power Conversion Unit (PCU), which converts some of that heat into electricity and rejects the waste heat to a pumped water loop. Each of the TDU subsystems is being tested independently prior to full system testing at the NASA Glenn Research Center. The pumped NaK loop is being tested at NASA Marshall Space Flight Center; the Stirling PCU and electrical controller are being tested by Sunpower Inc.; and the pumped water loop is being tested at Glenn. This paper describes cold-end subsystem setup and testing at Glenn. The TDU cold end has been assembled in Vacuum Facility 6 (VF 6) at Glenn, the same chamber that will be used for TDU testing. Cold-end testing in VF 6 will demonstrate functionality; validated cold-end fill, drain, and emergency backup systems; and generated pump performance and system pressure drop data used to validate models. In addition, a low-cost proof-of concept radiator has been built and tested at Glenn, validating the design and demonstrating the feasibility of using low-cost metal radiators as an alternative to high-cost composite radiators in an end-to-end TDU test.

Briggs, Maxwell↗

DOE OSTI2021

End-gas autoignition fraction and flame propagation rate in laser-ignited primary reference fuel mixtures at elevated temperature and pressure

Knock in spark-ignited (SI) engines is initiated by autoignition of the unburned gasses upstream of spark-ignited, propagating, turbulent premixed flames. Knock propensity of fuel/air mixtures is typically quantified using research octane number (RON), motor octane number (MON), or methane number (MN; for gaseous fuels), which are measured using single-cylinder, variable compression ratio engines. In this study, knock propensity of SI fuels was quantified via observations of end-gas autoignition (EGAI) in unburned gasses upstream of laser-ignited, premixed flames at elevated pressures and temperatures in a rapid compression machine. Stoichiometric primary reference fuel (PRF; n-heptane/isooctane) blends of varying reactivity (50 ≤ PRF ≤ 100) were ignited using an Nd:YAG laser over a range of temperatures and pressures, all in excess of 545 K and 16.1 bar. Laser ignition produced outwardly-propagating premixed flames. High-speed pressure measurements and schlieren images indicated the presence of EGAI. The fraction of the total heat release attributed to EGAI (i.e., EGAI fraction) varied with fuel reactivity (i.e., octane number) and the time-integrated temperature of the end-gas prior to ignition. Flame propagation rates, which were measured using schlieren images, were only weakly correlated with octane number but were affected by turbulence caused by variation in piston timing. Under conditions of low turbulence, measured flame propagation rates approached one-dimensional premixed laminar flame speed computations performed at the same conditions. Experiments were simulated with a three-dimensional CONVERGE™ model using reduced chemical kinetics (121 species, 538 reactions). The simulations accurately captured the measured flame propagation rates, as well as the variation in EGAI fraction with fuel reactivity and time-integrated end-gas temperature. The simulations also revealed low-temperature heat release as well as formaldehyde and hydrogen peroxide formation in the end-gas upstream of the propagating flame, which increased the temperature and degree of chain branching in the end-gas, ultimately leading to EGAI.

42 ENGINEERING↗

DOE OSTI2024

End-Use Savings Shapes Measure Documentation: Boiler Replacement with Air-Source Heat Pump Boiler and Electric Boiler Backup

Building on the successfully completed effort to calibrate and validate the U.S. Department of Energy's ResStock TM and ComStock TM models over the past three years, the objective of this work is to produce national data sets that empower analysts working for federal, state, utility, city, and manufacturer stakeholders to answer a broad range of analysis questions. The goal of this work is to develop energy efficiency, electrification, and demand flexibility end-use load shapes (electricity, gas, propane, or fuel oil) that cover a majority of the high-impact, market-ready (or nearly market-ready) measures. "Measures" refers to energy efficiency variables that can be applied to buildings during modeling. An end-use savings shape is the difference in energy consumption between a baseline building and a building with an energy efficiency, electrification, or demand flexibility measure applied. It results in a time-series profile that is broken down by end use and fuel (electricity or on-site gas, propane, or fuel oil use) at each timestep. ComStock is a highly granular, bottom-up model that uses multiple data sources, statistical sampling methods, and advanced building energy simulations to estimate the annual sub hourly energy consumption of the commercial building stock across the United States. The baseline model intends to represent the U.S. commercial building stock as it existed in 2018. The methodology and results of the baseline model are discussed in the final technical report of the End-Use Load Profiles project. This documentation focuses on a single end-use savings shape measure—boiler replacement by air-source heat pump boiler. This measure replaces space heating natural gas boilers by air-source heat pump boilers when applicable and helps quantify the decarbonization as well as the energy savings potential from the replacement. The measure resulted higher savings in natural gas consumption compared to the increase in electricity consumption, with a ratio of 2.9. The total natural gas energy consumption was reduced by 20%, whereas the total electricity consumption was increased by 2.5%.

32 ENERGY CONSERVATION, CONSUMPTION, AND UTILIZATI↗

NASA NTRS1946

Wind-tunnel Investigation of End-plate Effects of Horizontal Tails on a Vertical Tail Compared with Available Theory

A vertical-tail model with stub fuselage was tested in combination with various simulated horizontal tails to determine the effect of horizontal-tail span and location on the aerodynamic characteristics of the vertical tail. Available theoretical data on end-plate effects were collected and presented in the form most suitable for design purposes. Reasonable agreement was obtained between the measured and theoretical end-plate effects of horizontal tails on vertical tails, and the data indicated that the end-plate effect was determined more by the location of the horizontal tail than by the span of the horizontal tail. The horizontal tail gave most end-plate effect when located near either tip of the vertical tail and, when located near the base of the vertical tail, the end-plate effect was increased by moving the horizontal tail rearward.

TAIL SURFACES - HINGE MOMENTS↗

DOE OSTI2023

Machine learning surrogate of physics-based building-stock simulator for end-use load forecasting

Building energy models are used to simulate heat and mass transfer and estimate end-use load in buildings. With the proliferation of solar photovoltaics on residential and commercial buildings, increasingly, buildings are expected to provide grid services, for which accurate and computationally efficient building energy simulations and end-use load prediction are imperative. Existing building energy simulation tools, however, have significant computational overhead that make them less practical in real-time deployment for optimization, design, uncertainty quantification and control in building energy management systems. Here this article presents a data-driven machine learning model based on light gradient boosting method (LightGBM) as a surrogate for a physics-based simulator for residential buildings to predict end-use load. The machine learning based surrogate model accounts for time-series related variables, seasonality and trend component of end-use load, and history of end-use load. The accuracy of the surrogate model is assessed on the prediction of the load profiles of 100 different houses in Cook County, Illinois, USA. The LightGBM surrogate model is shown to reduce the root-mean-squared error by 53% relative to a reference decision tree (DT) based model reported previously in the literature. Moreover, the model predicts the load spikes and high-ramp rate events throughout the year which are often the Achilles heel of other models in the literature. The machine learning based surrogate model is demonstrated to be computationally efficient, with a ten-fold reduction in the computational time compared to a physics-based building energy simulation, and suitable for uncertainty analysis and real-time control of building characteristics in response to uncertainty.

32 ENERGY CONSERVATION, CONSUMPTION, AND UTILIZATI↗