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At least 325 records · Page 18

Reduced Models for Chemical Kinetics derived from Parallel Ensemble Simulations of Stirred Reactors

Detailed chemical kinetic models are essential to improve the predictive capability of computational fluid dynamics (CFD) simulations and to impact the development of next generation combustion technologies. However, such detailed kinetic models are beyond the reach of CFD codes due to the computational cost of transporting additional chemical degrees of freedom. Reduced order models for combustion kinetics exploit the presence of lower dimensional manifolds in the state space and require far fewer number of scalars to be transported as part of CFD simulations. In this paper, we describe the software infrastructure developed to allow large ensembles of stirred reactor configurations with detailed chemical kinetics. The canonical reactor simulations are incorporated in a workflow with sparse grid and data reduction methodologies aimed at development of reduced order models. We present results from analyzing the results of the stirred reactor calculations for syngas mixture using principal component analysis (PCA) and neural network methodologies. The results show that nonlinear autoencoder model can surpass PCA in representing the original dataset with far fewer degrees of freedom.

Zhang, Pei↗

Structure-Based Design of Small-Molecule Inhibitors of Human Interleukin-6

Human Interleukin-6 (hIL-6) is a pro inflammatory cytokine that binds to its receptor, IL-6Rα followed by binding to gp130 and subsequent dimerization to form a hexamer signaling complex. As a critical inflammation mediator, hIL-6 is associated with a diverse range of diseases and monoclonal antibodies in clinical use that either target IL-6Rα or hIL-6 to inhibit signaling. Here, we perform high-throughput structure-based computational screening using ensemble docking for small-molecule antagonists for which the target conformations were taken from 600 ns long molecular dynamics simulations of the apo protein. Prior knowledge of the contact sites from binary complex studies and experimental work was incorporated into the docking studies. The top 20 scoring ligands from the in silico studies after post analysis were subjected to in vitro functional assays. Among these compounds, the ligand with the second-highest calculated binding affinity experimentally showed an ~84% inhibitory effect on IL6-induced STAT3 reporter activity at 10 μM concentration. This finding may pave the way for designing small-molecule inhibitors of hIL-6 of therapeutic significance.

Human Interleukin-6↗

A Localized Ensemble Kalman Smoother

Numerous geophysical inverse problems prove difficult because the available measurements are indirectly related to the underlying unknown dynamic state and the physics governing the system may involve imperfect models or unobserved parameters. Data assimilation addresses these difficulties by combining the measurements and physical knowledge. The main challenge in such problems usually involves their high dimensionality and the standard statistical methods prove computationally intractable. This paper develops and addresses the theoretical convergence of a new high-dimensional Monte-Carlo approach called the localized ensemble Kalman smoother.

recursive estimation↗

Architecture and Dynamics of Kepler's Multi-Transiting Planet Systems.III. Comprehensive Investigation Using All Four Years of Kepler Mission Data

We study the orbital architectures of planetary systems orbiting within ∼1 AU of their stars by analyzing the ensemble of Kepler systems having two or more planet candidates. We use data from the entire Kepler mission, and in many cases we apply improved analysis techniques (e.g., replacing histograms by top-hat Kernel Density Estimators that avoid the loss of information resulting from choosing a particular phase for the bin boundaries) to extend and enhance the studies of Lissauer et al. (2011, ApJS 197, 8) and Fabrycky et al. (2014, ApJ 790, 146).These data show ~ 1700 transiting planet candidates in > 600 multiple-planet systems, far more than were available for our previous two studies. The increased numbers and better information about planetary radii and the properties of stellar hosts made possible by Gaia DR2 allow more statistically-robust analyses of the entire ensemble of Kepler multis as well as independent analyses of subsets of the population. We are thus able to contrast the dynamical configurations of small and large planets, short-period and longer-period planets, and planets orbiting various types of host stars. We reinforce our previous findings that most pairs of planets within the same system are neither in nor near low-order mean motion resonances and that there is a substantial excess of planets having period ratios slightly larger than those of first-order mean-motion resonances. However, neglecting three systems whose planets are locked in 3- body resonances and summing over all first-order mean motion resonances, the deficit of planet pairs with period ratios just narrow of resonance is as large as the excess of planets wide of resonance (within statistical uncertainties), suggesting that overall there is no overall excess of planet pairs in the vicinity of resonance. Other aspects of our study, including estimates of the typical relative inclinations of planetary orbits and their variations as functions of orbital period, planet sizes and stellar properties, are in progress, with results expected to be available for presentation by the time of the conference.

Lissauer, Jack↗

Dynamic response of a pulsed Burke-Schumann diffusion flame

Turbulent flames are often envisioned as an ensemble of random vortices interacting with the combustion process. A better understanding of the vortex-flame interactions therefore would be useful in improving the modeling of turbulent diffusion flames. Substantial simplification may be made by investigating controlled interactions in a laminar flame, as opposed to random interactions in a turbulent flame. The general goals of the research project are to improve our understanding of (1) the influence of buoyancy on co-flow diffusion flames and (2) the effects of buoyancy on vortex-flame interactions in co-flow diffusion flames. As a first step toward objective (2), we conducted a joint experimental and numerical investigation of the vortex-flame interaction. Vortices were produced by mechanically pulsing the fuel flow at a low frequency, e.g., 10 Hz. Experiments were conducted using a nonflickering Burke-Schumann flame in both microgravity (mu-g) and normal gravity (1g) as a means of varying the buoyant force without modification of the pressure (i.e., density). The effects of buoyant convection may then be determined by a comparison of the mu-g and 1g results. The mu-g results may also reveal the important mechanisms which are masked or overwhelmed by buoyant convection in 1g. A numerical investigation was conducted using a validated, time-accurate numerical code to study the underlying physics during the flame interaction and to assist the interpretation of the experimental results.

Sheu, Jyh-Cherng↗

Influence of Long-Range Forces on the Transition States and Dynamics of NaCl Ion-Pair Dissociation in Water

We study NaCl ion-pair dissociation in a dilute aqueous solution using computer simulations both for the full system with long-range Coulomb interactions and for a well-chosen reference system with short-range intermolecular interactions. Analyzing results using concepts from Local Molecular Field (LMF) theory and the recently proposed AI-based analysis tool “State predictive information bottleneck” (SPIB), we show that the system with short-range interactions can accurately reproduce the transition rate for the dissociation process, the dynamics for moving between the underlying metastable states, and the transition state ensemble. Contributions from long-range interactions can be largely neglected for these processes because long-range forces from the direct interionic Coulomb interactions are almost completely canceled (>90%) by those from solvent interactions over the length scale where the transition takes place. Thus, for this important monovalent ion-pair system, short-range forces alone are able to capture detailed consequences of the collective solvent motion, allowing the use of physically suggestive and computationally efficient short-range models for the dissociation event. Here, we believe that the framework here should be applicable to disentangling mechanisms for more complex processes such as multivalent ion disassociation, where previous work has suggested that long-range contributions may be more important.

37 INORGANIC, ORGANIC, PHYSICAL, AND ANALYTICAL CH↗

Nanometer-Scale Acoustic Wave Packets Generated by Stochastic Core-Level Photoionization Events

We demonstrate that the absorption of femtosecond hard x-ray pulses excites quasispherical, high-amplitude, and high-wave-vector coherent acoustic phonon wave packets using an all hard-x-ray pump-probe scattering experiment. The time- and momentum-resolved diffuse scattering signal is consistent with an ensemble of 3D strain wave packets induced by the rapid electron cascade dynamics following photoionization at uncorrelated excitation centers. We quantify key parameters of this process, including the localization size of the stress field and the photon energy conversion efficiency into elastic energy. The parameters are determined by the photoelectron and Auger electron cascade dynamics, as well as the electron-phonon interaction. In particular, we obtain the localization size of the observed strain wave packet to be 1.5 and 2.5 nm for bulk SrTiO 3 and KTaO 3 single crystals, respectively. The results provide crucial information on the mechanism of x-ray energy deposition into matter and shed light on the shortest collective length scales accessible to coherent acoustic phonon generation using x-ray excitation. Published by the American Physical Society 2024

36 MATERIALS SCIENCE↗

Power System Event Classification and Localization Using a Convolutional Neural Network

Detection and timely identification of power system disturbances are essential for situation awareness and reliable electricity grid operation. Because records of actual events in the system are limited, ensemble simulation-based events are needed to provide adequate data for building event-detection models through deep learning; e.g., a convolutional neural network (CNN). An ensemble numerical simulation-based training data set have been generated through dynamic simulations performed on the Polish system with various types of faults in different locations. Such data augmentation is proven to be able to provide adequate data for deep learning. The synchronous generators’ frequency signals are used and encoded into images for developing and evaluating CNN models for classification of fault types and locations. With a time-domain stacked image set as the benchmark, two different time-series encoding approaches, i.e., wavelet decomposition-based frequency-domain stacking and polar coordinate system-based Gramian Angular Field (GAF) stacking, are also adopted to evaluate and compare the CNN model performance and applicability. The various encoding approaches are suitable for different fault types and spatial zonation. With optimized settings of the developed CNN models, the classification and localization accuracies can go beyond 84 and 91%, respectively.

24 POWER TRANSMISSION AND DISTRIBUTION↗

A preliminary study of the tropical water cycle and its sensitivity to surface warming

The Goddard Cumulus Ensemble Model (GCEM) has been used to demonstrate that cumulus-scale dynamics and microphysics play a major role in determining the vertical distribution of water vapor and clouds in the tropical atmosphere. The GCEM is described and is the basic structure of cumulus convection. The long-term equilibrium response to tropical convection to surface warming is examined. A picture of the water cycle within tropical cumulus clusters is developed.

Lau, K. M.↗

Nonadiabatic dynamics with classical trajectories: The problem of an initial coherent superposition of electronic states

Advances in coherent light sources and development of pump–probe techniques in recent decades have opened the way to study electronic motion in its natural time scale. When an ultrashort laser pulse interacts with a molecular target, a coherent superposition of electronic states is created and the triggered electron dynamics is coupled to the nuclear motion. A natural and computationally efficient choice to simulate this correlated dynamics is a trajectory-based method where the quantum-mechanical electronic evolution is coupled to a classical-like nuclear dynamics. These methods must approximate the initial correlated electron–nuclear state by associating an initial electronic wavefunction to each classical trajectory in the ensemble. Different possibilities exist that reproduce the initial populations of the exact molecular wavefunction when represented in a basis. We show that different choices yield different dynamics and explore the effect of this choice in Ehrenfest, surface hopping, and exact-factorization-based coupled-trajectory schemes in a one-dimensional two-electronic-state model system that can be solved numerically exactly. Furthermore, this work aims to clarify the problems that standard trajectory-based techniques might have when a coherent superposition of electronic states is created to initialize the dynamics, to discuss what properties and observables are affected by different choices of electronic initial conditions and to point out the importance of quantum-momentum-induced electronic transitions in coupled-trajectory schemes.

37 INORGANIC, ORGANIC, PHYSICAL, AND ANALYTICAL CH↗

On the gravitational stability of the interstellar medium in spiral arms

The dynamics of self-gravitating gaseous density perturbations in the tightly wound spiral-arm model of the forcing potential (Brown 1969) is investigated. The cloud ensemble of the cold phase of the interstellar medium is regarded as a collisional gas whose 'molecules' are the clouds themselves, and the dynamical evolution of density perturbations is calculated assuming this gas obeys a polytropic pressure-density law. It is suggested that the formation of extreme Population I objects found predominantly along the arms of Sb/Sc systems is regulated by an overall energy balance in the cloud fluid. A single parameter is found which appears to characterize the flow's gravitational response to perturbations; this spiral parameter, Q-sub-sp, differs from the Toomre Q parameter by a factor of the square root of the density enhancement at the shock. It is necessary but not sufficient that Q-sub-sp be less than unity for significant growth to occur.

Balbus, S. A.↗

How May the Choice of Downscaling Techniques and Meteorological Reference Observations Affect Future Hydroclimate Projections?

Abstract We present an intercomparison of a suite of high‐resolution downscaled climate projections based on a six‐member General Circulation Model (GCM) ensemble from Coupled Models Intercomparison Project (CMIP6). The CMIP6 GCMs have been downscaled using dynamical and statistical downscaling techniques based on two meteorological reference observations over the conterminous United States. We use the regional climate model, RegCM4, for dynamical downscaling, double bias correction constructed analogs method for statistical downscaling, and Daymet and Livneh datasets as the reference observations for statistical training and bias‐correction. We evaluate the performances of downscaled data in both historical and future periods under the SSP585 scenario. While dynamical downscaling improves the simulation of some performance evaluation indices, it adds an extra bias in others, highlighting the need for statistical correction before its use in impact assessments. Downscaled datasets after bias‐correction compare exceptionally well with observations. However, the choice of downscaling techniques and the underlying reference observations influence the hydroclimate characteristics of downscaled data. For instance, the statistical downscaling generally preserves the GCMs climate change signal but overestimates the frequency of hot extremes. Similarly, simulated future changes are sensitive to the choice of reference observations, particularly for precipitation extremes that exhibit a higher projected increase in the ensembles trained and/or corrected by Daymet than Livneh. Overall, these results demonstrate that multiple factors, including downscaling techniques and reference observations, can substantially influence the outcome of downscaled climate projections and stress the need for a comprehensive understanding of such method‐based uncertainties.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

Arrested-motility states in populations of shape-anisotropic active Janus particles

The emergence of large-scale collective phenomena from simple interactions between individual units is a hallmark of active matter systems. Active colloids with alignment-dominated interparticle interactions tend to develop orientational order and form motile coherent states, such as flocks and swarms. Alternatively, a combination of self-propulsion and excluded-volume interactions results in self-trapping and active phase separation into dense clusters. Here, we reveal unconventional arrested-motility states in ensembles of active discoidal particles powered by induced-charge electrophoresis. Combining experiments and computational modeling, we demonstrate that the shape asymmetry of the particles promotes the hydrodynamically assisted formation of active particles’ bound states in a certain range of excitation parameters, ultimately leading to a spontaneous collective state with arrested motility. Unlike the jammed clusters obtained through self-trapping, the arrested-motility phase remains sparse, dynamic, and reconfigurable. The demonstrated mechanism of phase separation seeded by bound state formation in ensembles of oblate active particles is generic and should be applicable to other active colloidal systems.

42 ENGINEERING↗

Assessing the representation of the Australian carbon cycle in global vegetation models

Australia plays an important role in the global terrestrial carbon cycle on inter-annual timescales. While the Australian continent is included in global assessments of the carbon cycle such as the global carbon budget, the performance of dynamic global vegetation models (DGVMs) over Australia has rarely been evaluated. We assessed simulations of net biome production (NBP) and the carbon stored in vegetation between 1901 to 2018 from 13 DGVMs (TRENDY v8 ensemble). We focused our analysis on Australia's short-term (inter-annual) and long-term (decadal to centennial) terrestrial carbon dynamics. The TRENDY models simulated differing magnitudes of NBP on inter-annual timescales, and these differences resulted in significant differences in long-term vegetation carbon accumulation (–4.7 to 9.5 Pg C). We compared the TRENDY ensemble to several satellite-derived datasets and showed that the spread in the models' simulated carbon storage resulted from varying changes in carbon residence time rather than differences in net carbon uptake. Differences in simulated long-term accumulated NBP between models were mostly due to model responses to land-use change. The DGVMs also simulated different sensitivities to atmospheric carbon dioxide (CO 2 ) concentration, although notably, the models with nutrient cycles did not simulate the smallest NBP response to CO 2 . Our results suggest that a change in the climate forcing did not have a large impact on the carbon cycle on long timescales. However, the inter-annual variability in precipitation drives the year-to-year variability in NBP. We analysed the impact of key modes of climate variability, including the El Niño–Southern Oscillation (ENSO) and the Indian Ocean Dipole (IOD), on NBP. While the DGVMs agreed on sign of the response of NBP to El Niño and La Niña and to positive and negative IOD events, the magnitude of inter-annual variability in NBP differed strongly between models. In addition, we find that differences in the timing of simulated phenology and fire dynamics are associated with differences in simulated or prescribed vegetation cover and process representation. We further find model disagreement in simulated vegetation carbon, phenology, and apparent carbon residence time, indicating that the models have different types and coverage of vegetation across Australia (whether prescribed or emergent). Our study highlights the need to evaluate parameter assumptions and the key processes that drive vegetation dynamics, such as phenology, mortality, and fire, in an Australian context to reduce uncertainty across models.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

Large Ensemble Particle Filter for Spatial Climate Reconstructions Using a Linear Inverse Model

Proxy records that document the last 2000 years of climate provide evidence for the wide range of the natural climate variability from inter-annual to secular timescales not captured by the short window of recent direct observations. Assessing climate models ability to reproduce such natural variations is crucial to understand climate sensitivity and impacts of future climate change. Paleoclimate data assimilation (PDA) offers a powerful way to extend the short instrumental period by optimally combining the physics described by General Circulation Climate Models (GCMs) with information from available proxy records while taking into account their uncertainties. Here we present a new PDA approach based on a sequential importance resampling (SIR) Particle filter (PF) that uses Linear Inverse Modeling (LIM) as an emulator of several CMIP-class GCMs. We examine in a perfect-model framework the skill of the various LIMs to forecast the dynamics of the surface temperatures and provide spatial field reconstructions over the last millennium in a SIR PF. Our results show that the LIMs allow for skillful ensemble forecasts at 1-year lead-time based on GCMs dynamical knowledge with best prediction in the tropics and the North Atlantic. The PDA further provides a set of physically consistent spatial fields allowing robust uncertainty quantification related to climate models biases and proxy spatial sampling. Our results indicate that the LIM yields dynamical memory improving climate variability reconstructions and support the use of the LIM as a GCM-emulator in real reconstruction to propagate large ensembles of particles at low cost in SIR PF.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

Sea Level Rise in the CESM Large Ensemble: The Role of Individual Climate Forcings and Consequences for the Coming Decades

The emergence of a spatial pattern in the externally forced response (FR) of dynamic sea level (DSL) during the altimeter era has recently been demonstrated using climate models but our understanding of its initial emergence, drivers, and implications for the future is poor. Here the anthropogenic forcings of the DSL pattern are explored using the Community Earth System Model Large Ensemble (CESM-LE) and Single-Forcing Large Ensemble, a newly available set of simulations where values of individual forcing agents remain fixed at 1920 levels, allowing for an estimation of their effects. Statistically significant contributions to the DSL FR are identified for greenhouse gases (GHGs) and industrial aerosols (AERs), with particularly strong contributions resulting from AERs in the mid-twentieth century and GHGs in the late twentieth and twenty-first century. Secondary, but important, contributions are identified for biomass burning aerosols in the equatorial Atlantic Ocean in the mid-twentieth century, and for stratospheric ozone in the Southern Ocean during the late twentieth century. Key to understanding regional DSL patterns are ocean heat content and salinity anomalies, which are driven by surface heat and freshwater fluxes, ocean dynamics, and the spatial structure of seawater thermal expansivity. Finally, potential implications for the interpretation of DSL during the satellite era and the longer records from tide gauges are suggested as a topic for future research.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

Steering Molecular Dynamics Simulations of Membrane-Associated Proteins with Neutron Reflection Results

Herein, we present a novel method to incorporate structural results from surface-sensitive scattering, such as X-ray or neutron reflectometry, into molecular dynamics simulations. While reflectometry techniques generally provide a means to determine the molecular-scale structures of organized interfacial films, they were recently shown to offer the capability to characterize the structures of protein-membrane complexes supported by a solid substrate. One-dimensional information inherent in the experimental results is used in the form of component volume occupancy (CVO) profiles, which describe the distribution of molecular components within an interfacial architecture, to construct real-space constraints in the form of a biasing potential for the simulation that vanishes when the simulated and experimental profiles agree. This approach improves the correspondence between simulation and experiment, as shown in the re-evaluation of an neutron-reflection-derived structure which was approximated by an independent molecular dynamics simulation in earlier work, and it also leads to faster equilibration of ensemble structures. We further show that time averaging the CVO profile that develops in the simulation while biasing with this approach permits fluctuations about the average that are necessary for conformational exploration of the system. This method is particularly valuable for studies of proteins at interfaces that contain disordered regions since the conformation of such regions is difficult to judge from the analysis of one-dimensional experimental profiles and may take prohibitively long to equilibrate in simulations.

37 INORGANIC, ORGANIC, PHYSICAL, AND ANALYTICAL CH↗