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At least 325 records · Page 18

Physical retrieval of precipitation water contents from Special Sensor Microwave/Imager (SSM/I) data. Part 1: A cloud ensemble/radiative parameterization for sensor response (report version)

The physical retrieval of geophysical parameters based upon remotely sensed data requires a sensor response model which relates the upwelling radiances that the sensor observes to the parameters to be retrieved. In the retrieval of precipitation water contents from satellite passive microwave observations, the sensor response model has two basic components. First, a description of the radiative transfer of microwaves through a precipitating atmosphere must be considered, because it is necessary to establish the physical relationship between precipitation water content and upwelling microwave brightness temperature. Also the spatial response of the satellite microwave sensor (or antenna pattern) must be included in the description of sensor response, since precipitation and the associated brightness temperature field can vary over a typical microwave sensor resolution footprint. A 'population' of convective cells, as well as stratiform clouds, are simulated using a computationally-efficient multi-cylinder cloud model. Ensembles of clouds selected at random from the population, distributed over a 25 km x 25 km model domain, serve as the basis for radiative transfer calculations of upwelling brightness temperatures at the SSM/I frequencies. Sensor spatial response is treated explicitly by convolving the upwelling brightness temperature by the domain-integrated SSM/I antenna patterns. The sensor response model is utilized in precipitation water content retrievals.

Olson, William S.↗

High-Resolution NU-WRF Simulations of a Deep Convective-Precipitation System During MC3E: Comparisons Between Goddard Microphysics Schemes and Observations - Part 1

The Goddard microphysics scheme was recently improved by adding a 4th ice class (frozen dropshail). This new 4ICE scheme was implemented and tested in the Goddard Cumulus Ensemble model (GCE) for an intense continental squall line and a moderate,less-organized continental case. Simulated peak radar reflectivity profiles were improved both in intensity and shape for both cases as were the overall reflectivity probability distributions versus observations. In this study, the new Goddard 4ICE scheme is implemented into the regional-scale NASA Unified - Weather Research and Forecasting model (NU-WRF) and tested on an intense mesoscale convective system that occurred during the Midlatitude Continental Convective Clouds Experiment (MC3E). The NU42WRF simulated radar reflectivities, rainfall intensities, and vertical and horizontal structure using the new 4ICE scheme agree as well as or significantly better with observations than when using previous versions of the Goddard 3ICE (graupel or hail) schemes. In the 4ICE scheme, the bin microphysics-based rain evaporation correction produces more erect convective cores, while modification of the unrealistic collection of ice by dry hail produces narrow and intense cores, allowing more slow-falling snow to be transported rearward. Together with a revised snow size mapping, the 4ICE scheme produces a more horizontally stratified trailing stratiform region with a broad, more coherent light rain area. In addition, the NU-WRF 4ICE simulated radar reflectivity distributions are consistent with and generally superior to those using the GCE due to the less restrictive open lateral boundaries

Regional Scale Model↗

Statistical Analysis of Large Simulated Yield Datasets for Studying Climate Effects

Many studies have been carried out during the last decade to study the effect of climate change on crop yields and other key crop characteristics. In these studies, one or several crop models were used to simulate crop growth and development for different climate scenarios that correspond to different projections of atmospheric CO2 concentration, temperature, and rainfall changes (Semenov et al., 1996; Tubiello and Ewert, 2002; White et al., 2011). The Agricultural Model Intercomparison and Improvement Project (AgMIP; Rosenzweig et al., 2013) builds on these studies with the goal of using an ensemble of multiple crop models in order to assess effects of climate change scenarios for several crops in contrasting environments. These studies generate large datasets, including thousands of simulated crop yield data. They include series of yield values obtained by combining several crop models with different climate scenarios that are defined by several climatic variables (temperature, CO2, rainfall, etc.). Such datasets potentially provide useful information on the possible effects of different climate change scenarios on crop yields. However, it is sometimes difficult to analyze these datasets and to summarize them in a useful way due to their structural complexity; simulated yield data can differ among contrasting climate scenarios, sites, and crop models. Another issue is that it is not straightforward to extrapolate the results obtained for the scenarios to alternative climate change scenarios not initially included in the simulation protocols. Additional dynamic crop model simulations for new climate change scenarios are an option but this approach is costly, especially when a large number of crop models are used to generate the simulated data, as in AgMIP. Statistical models have been used to analyze responses of measured yield data to climate variables in past studies (Lobell et al., 2011), but the use of a statistical model to analyze yields simulated by complex process-based crop models is a rather new idea. We demonstrate herewith that statistical methods can play an important role in analyzing simulated yield data sets obtained from the ensembles of process-based crop models. Formal statistical analysis is helpful to estimate the effects of different climatic variables on yield, and to describe the between-model variability of these effects.

climate↗

Virtual Instrument Simulator for CERES

A benchtop virtual instrument simulator for CERES (Clouds and the Earth's Radiant Energy System) has been built at NASA, Langley Research Center in Hampton, VA. The CERES instruments will fly on several earth orbiting platforms notably NASDA's Tropical Rainfall Measurement Mission (TRMM) and NASA's Earth Observing System (EOS) satellites. CERES measures top of the atmosphere radiative fluxes using microprocessor controlled scanning radiometers. The CERES Virtual Instrument Simulator consists of electronic circuitry identical to the flight unit's twin microprocessors and telemetry interface to the supporting spacecraft electronics and two personal computers (PC) connected to the I/O ports that control azimuth and elevation gimbals. Software consists of the unmodified TRW developed Flight Code and Ground Support Software which serves as the instrument monitor and NASA/TRW developed engineering models of the scanners. The CERES Instrument Simulator will serve as a testbed for testing of custom instrument commands intended to solve in-flight anomalies of the instruments which could arise during the CERES mission. One of the supporting computers supports the telemetry display which monitors the simulator microprocessors during the development and testing of custom instrument commands. The CERES engineering development software models have been modified to provide a virtual instrument running on a second supporting computer linked in real time to the instrument flight microprocessor control ports. The CERES Instrument Simulator will be used to verify memory uploads by the CERES Flight Operations TEAM at NASA. Plots of the virtual scanner models match the actual instrument scan plots. A high speed logic analyzer has been used to track the performance of the flight microprocessor. The concept of using an identical but non-flight qualified microprocessor and electronics ensemble linked to a virtual instrument with identical system software affords a relatively inexpensive simulation system capable of high fidelity.

Chapman, John J.↗

Impacts of Microphysical Scheme on Convective and Stratiform Characteristics in Two High Precipitation Squall Line Events

This study investigates the impact of snow, graupel, and hail processes on simulated squall lines over the Southern Great Plains in the United States. The Weather Research and Forecasting (WRF) model is used to simulate two squall line events in Oklahoma during May 2007, and the simulations are validated against radar and surface observations. Several microphysics schemes are tested in this study, including the WRF 5-Class Microphysics (WSM5), WRF 6-Class Microphysics (WSM6), Goddard Cumulus Ensemble (GCE) Three Ice (3-ice) with graupel, Goddard Two Ice (2-ice), and Goddard 3-ice hail schemes. Simulated surface precipitation is sensitive to the microphysics scheme when the graupel or hail categories are included. All of the 3-ice schemes overestimate the total precipitation with WSM6 having the largest bias. The 2-ice schemes, without a graupel/hail category, produce less total precipitation than the 3-ice schemes. By applying a radar-based convective/stratiform partitioning algorithm, we find that including graupel/hail processes increases the convective areal coverage, precipitation intensity, updraft, and downdraft intensities, and reduces the stratiform areal coverage and precipitation intensity. For vertical structures, simulations have higher reflectivity values distributed aloft than the observed values in both the convective and stratiform regions. Three-ice schemes produce more high reflectivity values in convective regions, while 2-ice schemes produce more high reflectivity values in stratiform regions. In addition, this study has demonstrated that the radar-based convective/stratiform partitioning algorithm can reasonably identify WRF-simulated precipitation, wind, and microphysical fields in both convective and stratiform regions.

snow↗

The Dependence on Grid Resolution of Numerically Simulated Convective Cloud Systems Using Ice Microphysics

Mesoscale research and forecast models are increasingly being used at horizontal resolutions of 1-8 km to simulate a variety of precipitating systems. When the model is used to simulate convective systems, it is uncertain to what extent the dynamics and microphysics of convective updrafts can be resolved with grids larger than 1 km. In this study, two- and three-dimensional versions of the Goddard Cumulus Ensemble model are used to determine the impact of horizontal grid resolution on the behavior of the simulated storms and on the characteristics of the cloud microphysical fields. It will be shown that as resolution decreases from about 1 km to greater than 3 km, there is a fairly rapid degradation of the storm structure in the form of reduced convective mass fluxes, updraft tilts, and cloud microphysics. A high-resolution simulation of hurricane outer rainbands using the MM5 mesoscale model shows also that there can be a substantial modification of the key microphysical processes that contribute to rainfall as a result of reducing the horizontal resolution.

Braun, Scott A.↗

Volcanic Stratospheric Injections up to 160 Tg(S) Yield a Eurasian Winter Warming Indistinguishable from Internal Variability

Early observational and modeling work suggested that low-latitude volcanic eruptions, comparable to the one of Pinatubo in 1991 or Krakatau in 1883, cause substantial surface warming over the northern continents at mid-latitudes in winter. The proposed mechanism consists of the formation of an anomalously strong Equator-to-pole temperature gradient in the stratosphere due to the presence of volcanic aerosols in the tropics, which are accompanied by an acceleration of the stratospheric polar vortex, which then shifts the Northern Annular Mode into a positive phase, resulting in warming surface temperatures over Eurasia. However, a large body of research in the past decade has shown that, for eruptions such as Pinatubo or Krakatau, no such warming is seen in simulations with more recent climate models which, in general, have much finer vertical and horizontal resolution than the early ones, and which have separated the forced response from the internal variability by using large ensembles of integrations. Since the proposed physical mechanism is sound, it is then possible that eruptions comparable to those of Pinatubo or Krakatau are simply too weak, but even larger ones might indeed be capable of causing Eurasian surface warming in winter. In this study, we explore this possibility using a state-of-the-art, stratosphere-resolving climate model, forced with prescribed aerosols from the Easy Volcanic Aerosol protocol. We consider eruptions with stratospheric sulfur injections of 5, 10, 20, 40, 80, and 160 Tg(S). With 20-member ensembles, we find that with injections of 20 Tg(S) or more – roughly twice the amplitude of the Pinatubo and Krakatau eruptions – our model simulates a winter surface warming over Eurasia, which is statistically significant with a t test given our 20-member ensembles. However, the forced volcanic signal on Eurasian winter surface temperatures is very small, barely exceeding the 1σ range of internal variability for the 160 Tg(S) injection case, and much smaller for smaller eruptions. Most importantly, the number of eruptions needed to establish statistical significance is considerably larger than the number of eruptions known to have occurred in the past 2000 years.

Volcanic eruptions↗

Studying Turbulence Using Numerical Simulation Databases: Proceedings of the 1996 Summer Program - Part 6

Topics considered include: New approach to turbulence modeling; Second moment closure analysis of the backstep flow database; Prediction of the backflow and recovery regions in the backward facing step at various Reynolds numbers; Turbulent flame propagation in partially premixed flames; Ensemble averaged dynamic modeling. Also included a study of the turbulence structures of wall-bounded shear flows; Simulation and modeling of the elliptic streamline flow.

Source record↗

An Examination of the Impact of Grid Spacing on WRF Simulations of Wintertime Precipitation in the Mid-Atlantic United States

A large set of deterministic and ensemble forecasts was produced to identify the optimal spacing for forecasting U.S. East Coast snowstorms. WRF forecasts were produced on cloud-allowing (~1-km grid spacing) and convection-allowing (3–4 km) grids, and compared against forecasts with parameterized convection (>~10 km). Performance diagrams were used to evaluate 19 deterministic forecasts from the winter of 2013–14. Ensemble forecasts of five disruptive snowstorms spanning the years 2015–18 were evaluated using various methods to evaluate probabilistic forecasts. While deterministic forecasts using cloud-allowing grids were not better than convection-allowing forecasts, both had lower bias and higher success ratios than forecasts with parameterized convection. All forecasts were underdispersive. Nevertheless, forecasts on the higher-resolution grids were more reliable than those with parameterized convection. Forecasts on the cloud-allowing grid were best able to discriminate areas that received heavy snow and those that did not, while the forecasts with parameterized convection were least able to do so. It is recommended to use convection-resolving and (if computationally possible) to use cloud-allowing forecast grids when predicting East Coast winter storms.

Snowstorms↗

21st Century Trends in Antarctic Temperature and Polar Stratospheric Cloud (PSC) Area in the GEOS Chemistry-Climate Model

This study examines trends in Antarctic temperature and APSC, a temperature proxy for the area of polar stratospheric clouds, in an ensemble of Goddard Earth Observing System (GEOS) chemistry-climate model (CCM) simulations of the 21st century. A selection of greenhouse gas, ozone-depleting substance, and sea surface temperature scenarios is used to test the trend sensitivity to these parameters. One scenario is used to compare temperature trends in two versions of the GEOS CCM. An extended austral winter season is examined in detail. In May, June, and July, the expected future increase in CO2-related radiative cooling drives temperature trends in the Antarctic lower stratosphere. At 50 hPa, a 1.3 K cooling is expected between 2000 and 2100. Ozone levels increase, despite this robust cooling signal and the consequent increase in APSC, suggesting the enhancement of stratospheric transport in future. In the lower stratosphere, the choice of climate change scenarios does not affect the magnitude of the early winter cooling. Midwinter temperature trends are generally small. In October, APSC trends have the same sign as the prescribed halogen trends. That is, there are negative APSC trends in "grealistic future" simulations, where halogen loading decreases in accordance with the Montreal Protocol and CO2 continues to increase. In these simulations, the speed of ozone recovery is not influenced by either the choice of sea surface temperature and greenhouse gas scenarios or by the model version.

Hurwitz, M. M.↗

Towards a New Food System Assessment: AgMIP Coordinated Global and Regional Assessments of Climate Change

Agricultural stakeholders need more credible information on which to base adaptation and mitigation policy decisions. In order to provide this, we must improve the rigor of agricultural modelling. Ensemble approaches can be used to address scale issues and integrated teams can overcome disciplinary silos. The AgMIP Coordinated Global and Regional Assessments of Climate Change and Food Security (CGRA) has the goal to link agricultural systems models using common protocols and scenarios to significantly improve understanding of climate effects on crops, livestock and livelihoods across multiple scales. The AgMIP CGRA assessment brings together experts in climate, crop, livestock, economics, and food security to develop Protocols to guide the process throughout the assessment. Scenarios are designed to consistently combine elements of intertwined storylines of future society including, socioeconomic development, greenhouse gas concentrations, and specific pathways of agricultural sector development. Through these approaches, AgMIP partners around the world are providing an evidence base for their stakeholders as they make decisions and investments.

Ensembles↗

The Subseasonal Experiment (SubX): A Multi-Model Subseasonal Prediction Experiment

SubX is a multi-model subseasonal prediction experiment designed around operational requirements with the goal of improving subseasonal forecasts. Seven global models have produced seventeen years of retrospective (re-) forecasts and more than a year of weekly real-time forecasts. The re-forecasts and forecasts are archived at the Data Library of the International Research Institute for Climate and Society, Columbia University, providing a comprehensive database for research on subseasonal to seasonal predictability and predictions. The SubX models show skill for temperature and precipitation three weeks ahead of time in specific regions. The SubX multi-model ensemble mean is more skillful than any individual model overall. Skill in simulating the Madden-Julian Oscillation (MJO) and the North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO), two sources of subseasonal predictability, is also evaluated with skillful predictions of the MJO four weeks in advance and of the NAO 2 weeks in advance. SubX is also able to make useful contributions to operational forecast guidance at the Climate Prediction Center. Additionally, SubX provides information on the potential for extreme precipitation associated with tropical cyclones which can help emergency management and aid organizations to plan for disasters. (Capsule Summary) A research to operations project in service of developing better operational subseasonal forecasts.

Precipitation↗

Uncertainty Estimation for SMAP Level-1 Brightness Temperature Assimilation at Different Timescales

In this study, we assimilate Soil Moisture Active Passive (SMAP) mission brightness temperature (Tb) observations into NASA’s Catchment Land Surface Model using an Ensemble Kalman filter to update surface and root-zone soil moisture simulations. Different time series components of the Tb observations are assimilated including anomalies, inter-annual variations, and high-frequency variations. To optimize the weights that the data assimilation (DA) puts on the observations, the ratio between the un-certainties of modeled and observed Tb is approximated using modeled and observed soil moisture uncertainties estimated using triple collocation analysis. Results are compared to a benchmark experiment that mimics the operational SMAP Level-4 algorithm, which assimilates Tb observations using a spatially-constant 4 Kelvin (K) observation uncertainty. All DA experiments exhibit notable skill improvements in most regions. Improvements are greatest for the inter-annual variations in the simulations of both surface and root-zone soil moisture (mean improvements in terms of Pearson correlation (-) are 0.08 and 0.06, respectively). Anomaly simulations improve similarly (0.07), and improvements in the high-frequency variations are only observed for sur-face soil moisture simulations (0.06). Strikingly, however, no notable difference in skill—neither improvement nor deterioration—is observed between the experiments that use optimized observation uncertainty parameters and the 4 K benchmark experiment. We show, analytically, that this may be explained by the presence of large observation operator errors, which have the potential to render post-update uncertainty insensitive to inaccuracies in the Kalman gain.

Alexander Gruber↗

Mechanisms of Diurnal Precipitation over the United States Great Plains: A Cloud-Resolving Model Simulation

The mechanisms of summertime diurnal precipitation in the US Great Plains were examined with the two-dimensional (2D) Goddard Cumulus Ensemble (GCE) cloud-resolving model (CRM). The model was constrained by the observed large-scale background state and surface flux derived from the Department of Energy (DOE) Atmospheric Radiation Measurement (ARM) Program s Intensive Observing Period (IOP) data at the Southern Great Plains (SGP). The model, when continuously-forced by realistic surface flux and large-scale advection, simulates reasonably well the temporal evolution of the observed rainfall episodes, particularly for the strongly forced precipitation events. However, the model exhibits a deficiency for the weakly forced events driven by diurnal convection. Additional tests were run with the GCE model in order to discriminate between the mechanisms that determine daytime and nighttime convection. In these tests, the model was constrained with the same repeating diurnal variation in the large-scale advection and/or surface flux. The results indicate that it is primarily the surface heat and moisture flux that is responsible for the development of deep convection in the afternoon, whereas the large-scale upward motion and associated moisture advection play an important role in preconditioning nocturnal convection. In the nighttime, high clouds are continuously built up through their interaction and feedback with long-wave radiation, eventually initiating deep convection from the boundary layer. Without these upper-level destabilization processes, the model tends to produce only daytime convection in response to boundary layer heating. This study suggests that the correct simulation of the diurnal variation in precipitation requires that the free-atmospheric destabilization mechanisms resolved in the CRM simulation must be adequately parameterized in current general circulation models (GCMs) many of which are overly sensitive to the parameterized boundary layer heating.

Lee, M.-I.↗

Boreal Winter Predictions with the GEOS-2 GCM: The Role of Boundary Forcing and Initial Conditions

Ensembles of atmospheric General Circulation Model (GCM) seasonal forecasts and long-term simulations (1980-94) are analyzed to assess the controlling influences of boundary forcing and memory of the initial conditions. Both the forecasts and simulations are carried out with version 2 of the Goddard Earth Observing System (GEOS-2) GCM forced with observed sea surface temperatures (SSTs). While much of the focus is on the seasonal time scale (January- March) and the Pacific North American (PNA) region, we also present results for other regions, shorter time scales, and other known modes of variability in the northern hemisphere extratropics. Forecasts of indices of some of the key large-scale modes of variability show that there is considerable variability in skill between different regions of the Northern Hemisphere. The eastern North Atlantic region has the poorest long lead forecast skill showing no skill beyond about 10 days. Skillful seasonal forecasts are primarily confined to the wave-like ENSO response emanating from the tropical Pacific. In the Northern Hemisphere, this is associated with the well-known Pacific/North American (PNA) pattern. Memory of the initial conditions is the major factor leading to skillful extratropical forecasts of lead time less than one month, while SST forcing is the only factor at the seasonal time scale. SST forcing contributes to skillful forecasts at sub- seasonal time scales only over the PNA region. The GEOS-2 GCM produces average (1980-94) signal to noise ratios which are less than one everywhere in the extratropics, except for the subtropical Pacific where they approach 1.5. When confined to the ENSO years, the maximum signal to noise ratios occur in the PNA region where they exceed three. An assessment of the sampling distribution of the forecasts suggests the model's ENSO response is very likely too weak. These results show some sensitivity to the uncertainties in the estimates of the SST forcing fields. In the North Pacific region, the sensitivity to SST forcing manifests itself primarily as changes in the variability of the PNA response, underscoring the need for an ensemble approach to the seasonal prediction problem.

Chang, Yehui↗

Modelling climate change impacts on maize yields under low nitrogen input conditions in sub‐Saharan Africa

Smallholder farmers in sub‐Saharan Africa (SSA) currently grow rainfed maize with limited inputs including fertilizer. Climate change may exacerbate current production constraints. Crop models can help quantify the potential impact of climate change on maize yields, but a comprehensive multimodel assessment of simulation accuracy and uncertainty in these low‐input systems is currently lacking. We evaluated the impact of varying [CO2], temperature and rainfall conditions on maize yield, for different nitrogen (N) inputs (0, 80, 160 kg N/ha) for five environments in SSA, including cool subhumid Ethiopia, cool semi‐arid Rwanda, hot subhumid Ghana and hot semi‐arid Mali and Benin using an ensemble of 25 maize models. Models were calibrated with measured grain yield, plant biomass, plant N, leaf area index, harvest index and in‐season soil water content from 2‐year experiments in each country to assess their ability to simulate observed yield. Simulated responses to climate change factors were explored and compared between models. Calibrated models reproduced measured grain yield variations well with average relative root mean square error of 26%, although uncertainty in model prediction was substantial (CV = 28%). Model ensembles gave greater accuracy than any model taken at random. Nitrogen fertilization controlled the response to variations in [CO2], temperature and rainfall. Without N fertilizer input, maize (i) benefited less from an increase in atmospheric [CO2], (ii) was less affected by higher temperature or decreasing rainfall and (iii) was more affected by increased rainfall because N leaching was more critical. The model inter-comparison revealed that simulation of daily soil N supply and N leaching plays a crucial role in simulating climate change impacts for low-input systems. Climate change and N input interactions have strong implications for the design of robust adaptation practices across SSA, because the impact of climate change will be modified if farmers intensify maize production with more mineral fertilizer.

Crop simulation model↗

MHD solution of interplanetary disturbances generated by simulated velocity perturbations

An MHD time-dependent numerical simulation, restricted to the solar equatorial plane, is used to demonstrate the interplanetary disturbances caused by several simplified coronal holes. Each 'hole' is assumed to have a configuration such that the higher solar wind velocity produced within their longitudinal extent is Gaussian over a 7-day period at the inner boundary (0.3 AU) of the numerical simulation. A second, twin coronal hole is assumed to rotate on the solar disk behind its predecessor. It is shown that the first coronal hole-produced interplanetary shock ensemble is overtaken by the second ensemble because of the higher velocity, lower density environment into which the latter propagates. A number of features predicted by MHD similarity theory are confirmed by the numerical simulation. These features include (1) strong azimuthal magnetic and plasma density compression, accompanied with average temperature depression, at the contact surface between forward and reverse shock ensembles, and (2) increasing spatial separation distance between forward and reverse shocks.

Dryer, M.↗

Study of alloy disorder in quantum dots through multi-million atom simulations

A tight binding model which includes s, p, d, s orbitals is used to examine the electronic structures of an ensemble of dome-shaped In0.6 Ga0.4 As quantum dots. Given ensembles of identically sized quantum dots, variations in composition and configuration yield a linewidth broadening of less than 0.35 meV, much smaller than the total broadening determined from photoluminescence experiments. It is also found that the computed disorder-induced broadening is very sensitive to the applied boundary conditions, so that care must be taken to ensure proper convergence of the numerical results. Examination of local eigenenergies as functions of position shows similar convergence problems and indicates that an inaccurate resolution of the equilibrium atomic positions due to truncation of the simulation domain may be the source of the slow ground state convergence.

disorder↗