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At least 325 records · Page 18

Predicting climate change impacts on poikilotherms using physiologically guided species abundance models

Poikilothermic animals comprise most species on Earth and are especially sensitive to changes in environmental temperatures. Species conservation in a changing climate relies upon predictions of species responses to future conditions, yet predicting species responses to climate change when temperatures exceed the bounds of observed data is fraught with challenges. We present a physiologically guided abundance (PGA) model that combines observations of species abundance and environmental conditions with laboratory-derived data on the physiological response of poikilotherms to temperature to predict species geographical distributions and abundance in response to climate change. The model incorporates uncertainty in laboratory-derived thermal response curves and provides estimates of thermal habitat suitability and extinction probability based on site-specific conditions. We show that temperature-driven changes in distributions, local extinction, and abundance of cold, cool, and warm-adapted species vary substantially when physiological information is incorporated. Notably, cold-adapted species were predicted by the PGA model to be extirpated in 61% of locations that they currently inhabit, while extirpation was never predicted by a correlative niche model. Failure to account for species-specific physiological constraints could lead to unrealistic predictions under a warming climate, including underestimates of local extirpation for cold-adapted species near the edges of their climate niche space and overoptimistic predictions of warm-adapted species.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

Virus diversity and activity is driven by snowmelt and host dynamics in a high-altitude watershed soil ecosystem

Background: Viruses impact nearly all organisms on Earth, including microbial communities and their associated biogeochemical processes. In soils, highly diverse viral communities have been identified, with a global distribution seemingly driven by multiple biotic and abiotic factors, especially soil temperature and moisture. However, our current understanding of the stability of soil viral communities across time and their response to strong seasonal changes in environmental parameters remains limited. Here, we investigated the diversity and activity of environmental soil DNA and RNA viruses, focusing especially on bacteriophages, across dynamics’ seasonal changes in a snow-dominated mountainous watershed by examining paired metagenomes and metatranscriptomes. Results: We identified a large number of DNA and RNA viruses taxonomically divergent from existing environmental viruses, including a significant proportion of fungal RNA viruses, and a large and unsuspected diversity of positive single-stranded RNA phages ( Leviviricetes ), highlighting the under-characterization of the global soil virosphere. Among these, we were able to distinguish subsets of active DNA and RNA phages that changed across seasons, consistent with a “seed-bank” viral community structure in which new phage activity, for example, replication and host lysis, is sequentially triggered by changes in environmental conditions. At the population level, we further identified virus-host dynamics matching two existing ecological models: “Kill-The-Winner” which proposes that lytic phages are actively infecting abundant bacteria, and “Piggyback-The-Persistent” which argues that when the host is growing slowly, it is more beneficial to remain in a dormant state. The former was associated with summer months of high and rapid microbial activity, and the latter with winter months of limited and slow host growth. Conclusion: Taken together, these results suggest that the high diversity of viruses in soils is likely associated with a broad range of host interaction types each adapted to specific host ecological strategies and environmental conditions. As our understanding of how environmental and host factors drive viral activity in soil ecosystems progresses, integrating these viral impacts in complex natural microbiome models will be key to accurately predict ecosystem biogeochemistry.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

Long-Term Infrasound Sensor Calibration and Characterization

Previous testing has shown that infrasound sensors deployed in the field can exhibit notable deviations from their nominal, lab-based calibrations. These variations may be due to changes in environmental conditions, long-term sensor drift, or other unresolved features. In early 2018, we installed two identical infrasound elements with five infrasound sensors at each element (Chaparral M50A, Chaparral M64LN, CEA/Martec MB2005, CEA/Seismowave MB3a, and Hyperion IFS-5113A). These sensors were accepted or under consideration for use in the International Monitoring System network of the Comprehensive Nuclear-Test-Ban Treaty. Each element had all sensors connected to a single digitizer and port to the atmosphere. We also recorded instrument enclosure air temperature and humidity and external air temperature. Using the MB2005 as the reference, we examine the relative sensor response (both magnitude and phase) as a function of time and frequency and compare it with quarterly laboratory calibrations and environmental conditions. Here, we find that the magnitude response for all sensors exhibits some variability in both the lab and field, with the amplitude variations often >5%. The field-based variations are more severe and occur on both long-term (months) and short-term (hours) timescales. Short-term variability correlates with changes in environmental conditions and is considerable (up to 25%) for the Chaparral M50A and noticeable (∼5%) for the French Alternative Energies and Atomic Energy Commission (CEA) MB3a. Long-term magnitude variability for the Chaparral M50A was up to 50% and does not clearly correlate with environmental conditions. The other sensors show some long-term magnitude offsets, but they have relatively stable responses in the conditions we examined. The MB3a also displays some frequency-dependent magnitude variability and shows a minor dependence on temperature. Phase estimates are stable and near zero for all sensors tested. These results strongly suggest sensor response and variability due to environmental conditions should be considered in future infrasound data interpretation and sensor selection and development.

Fee, David↗

BONCAT-Live for isolation and cultivation of active environmental bacteria

In diverse environments, microbes drive a myriad of processes, from geochemical and nutrient cycling to interspecies interactions, including associations with plants and animals. Their physiological state is dynamic and impacted by abiotic and biotic conditions, responding to environmental fluctuations by changes in cellular metabolism, according to their genetic potential. Molecular, cellular, and genomic approaches can identify and measure microbial responses and adaptation to environmental changes in native communities. However, isolating individual microbial cells that respond to specific changes for cultivation has been difficult. To address this, we implemented a novel bacterial isolation approach (BONCAT-Live) by integrating bio-orthogonal non-canonical amino acid tagging (BONCAT) in diverse native communities, with isolation and cultivation of cells responding to specific stimuli, at different time scales. In frozen Arctic permafrost samples, we identified and isolated dormant bacteria that become active after thawing under native or nutrient-enriched conditions. From the Populus tree rhizosphere, we isolated strains that thrive under high concentrations of root exudates that act as defense compounds and nutrients. In the human microbiome, we identified and isolated bacteria that rapidly proliferated when exposed to metabolites provided by the host or other co-occurring microbes. Further characterization of isolated bacterial strains will provide opportunities for in-depth determination of how these microbes adapt to changes in their environments, individually and as part of model communities.

Analytical Methods↗

Vapor kinetic energy for the detection and understanding of atmospheric rivers

Poleward water vapor transport in the midlatitudes mainly occurs in meandering filaments of intense water vapor transport, spanning thousands of kilometers long and hundreds of kilometers wide and moving eastward. The water vapor filaments are known as atmospheric rivers (ARs). They can cause extreme wind gusts, intense precipitation, and flooding along densely populated coastal regions. Many recent studies about ARs focused on the statistical analyses of ARs, but a process-level understanding of ARs remains elusive. Here we show that ARs are streams of air with enhanced vapor kinetic energy (VKE) and derive a governing equation for Integrated VKE to understand what contributes to the evolution of ARs. We find that ARs grow mainly because of potential energy conversion to kinetic energy, decay largely owing to condensation and turbulence, and the eastward movement is primarily due to horizontal advection of VKE. Our VKE framework complements the integrated vapor transport framework, which is popular for identifying ARs but lacks a prognostic equation for understanding the physical processes.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

Long-term measurements in a mixed-grass prairie reveal a change in soil organic carbon recalcitrance and its environmental sensitivity under warming

Soil respiration, the major pathway for ecosystem carbon (C) loss, has the potential to enter a positive feedback loop with the atmospheric CO2 due to climate warming. For reliable projections of climate-carbon feedbacks, accurate quantification of soil respiration and identification of mechanisms that control its variability are essential. Process-based models simulate soil respiration as functions of belowground C input, organic matter quality, and sensitivity to environmental conditions. However, evaluation and calibration of process-based models against the long-term in situ measurements are rare. Here, we evaluate the performance of the Terrestrial ECOsystem (TECO) model in simulating total and heterotrophic soil respiration measured during a 16-year warming experiment in a mixed-grass prairie; calibrate model parameters against these and other measurements collected during the experiment; and explore whether the mechanisms of C dynamics have changed over the years. Calibrating model parameters against observations of individual years substantially improved model performance in comparison to pre-calibration simulations, explaining 79–86% of variability in observed soil respiration. Interannual variation of the calibrated model parameters indicated increasing recalcitrance of soil C and changing environmental sensitivity of microbes. Overall, we found that (1) soil organic C became more recalcitrant in intact soil compared to root-free soil; (2) warming offset the effects of increasing C recalcitrance in intact soil and changed microbial sensitivity to moisture conditions. Furthermore, these findings indicate that soil respiration may decrease in the future due to C quality, but this decrease may be offset by warming-induced changes in C cycling mechanisms and their responses to moisture conditions.

59 BASIC BIOLOGICAL SCIENCES↗

Microorganisms, climate change, and the Sustainable Development Goals: progress and challenges

The forthcoming UN summit marks the halfway point to 2030 and presents an important milestone in global efforts to address various challenges, including those related to climate change and environmental preservation. The UN SDGs include several related to microorganisms and climate change. Importantly, microbiology research is key to understanding and mitigating climate change, and in maintaining the health of terrestrial and aquatic ecosystems (SDGs 13, 14 and 15).

59 BASIC BIOLOGICAL SCIENCES↗

DARHT : Enduring Lessons from a Technical Project in a National Laboratory Context [Slides]

The Dual-Axis Radiographic Hydrodynamic Test (DARHT) facility at Los Alamos National Laboratory (LANL) is the world’s first flash x-ray facility able to take multiple high-resolution radiographs of the interior features of fast-moving dense objects during a single experiment. DARHT’s radiography and complimentary diagnostics makes it an important diagnostic tool in support of the US Department of Energy’s (DOE)/National Nuclear Security Administration (NNSA)’s stewardship of the US nuclear deterrent. The project to construct DARHT ran from 1988 through 2003. Initial Operating Capability along a single axis began in 1999. A technical issue delayed Critical Decision 4 for the full dual-axis capability until 2008. DARHT was characterized by several directed changes resulting from an environmental impact study, changes to the global security context resulting from the end of underground nuclear testing, and rapid evolution of applicable technology. Conventional building and lab-space construction were part of the project, but the project was dominated by Special Facility Equipment that, together with the mission to support the nuclear weapons program, required the project to be completed by national laboratories. Although the project pre-dated implementation of DOE Order 413.3, several important lessons for national laboratory projects remain applicable today and will be discussed here, including projects appropriate for the national laboratory environment, scope stability, risk acceptance and mitigation, communication, and collaboration. Finally, considerations for DOE contractor project managers are offered based upon the DARHT experience.

46 INSTRUMENTATION RELATED TO NUCLEAR SCIENCE AND ↗

Chronological changes in soil biogeochemical properties of the glacier foreland of Midtre Lovénbreen, Svalbard, attributed to soil-forming factors

We report that Glacier forelands provide an excellent opportunity to investigate vegetation succession and soil development along the chronosequence; however, there are few studies on soil biogeochemical changes from environmental factors, aside from time. This study aimed to investigate soil development and biogeochemical changes in the glacier foreland of Midtre Lovenbreen, Svalbard, by considering various factors, including time. Eighteen vegetation and soil variables were measured at 38 different sampling sites of varying soil age, depth, and glacio-fluvial activity. Soil organic matter (SOM) was quantitatively measured, and the compositional changes in SOM were determined following size-density fractionation. In the topsoil, the soil organic carbon (SOC) and total nitrogen (N) content was found to increase along the soil chronosequence and were highly correlated with vegetation-associated variables. These findings suggest that plant-derived material was the main driver of the light fraction of SOM accumulation in the topsoil. The heavy fractions of SOM were composed of microbially transformed organic compounds, eventually contributing to SOM stabilization within short 90-yr deglaciation under harsh climatic conditions. In addition to time, the soil vertical profiles showed that other environmental parameters, also affected the soil biogeochemical properties. The high total phosphorous (P) content and electrical conductivity in the topsoil were attributed to unweathered subglacial materials and a considerable amount of inorganic ions from subglacial meltwater. The high P and magnesium content in the subsoil were attributed to parent materials, while the high sodium and potassium content in the surface soil were a result of sea-salt deposition. Glacio-fluvial runoff hampered ecosystem development by inhibiting vegetation development and SOM accumulation. This study emphasizes the importance of considering various soil-forming factors, including parent/subglacial materials, aeolian deposition, and glacio-fluvial runoff, as well as soil age, to obtain a comprehensive understanding of the ecosystem development in glacier forelands.

glacio-fluvial runoff↗

Building a better framework for evaluating human well-being impacts in global change analysis: The example of energy security

Human well-being can be greatly impacted by the global environmental and socio-economic change captured in Integrated Models of Global Change (IMGCs). Though most IMGCs address some aspects of well-being, their underlying modeling approach and ‘philosophy’ differ widely, and some key elements – like energy security – are omitted. In this report, we describe a project in which we set out to a create a framework through which the well-being dimensions of the household are connected to key drivers of socio-economic and environmental change – and how the needed metrics, data and modeling methods can be brought to bear. We focus on the well-being dimensions of energy, and lay out the necessary elements to capturing household energy security – using household energy burden as the relevant metric. We begin by showing the conceptual linkage of energy burden to environmental drivers like temperature change, using a simple and straightforward conceptual framework. We then go further to use the example of GCAM-USA to show how some key analytical features of the model can provide insight into how energy security across different groups can change along alternative pathways to sustainability. We compare our preliminary assessment of household energy burden to existing data and suggest further steps to improve and refine this analysis in future research.

29 ENERGY PLANNING, POLICY, AND ECONOMY↗

A Continental-Scale Estimate of Soil Organic Carbon Change at NEON Sites and Their Environmental and Edaphic Controls

Current carbon cycle models focus on the effects of climate and land-use change on primary productivity and microbial-mineral dependent carbon turnover in the topsoil, while less attention has been paid to vertical soil processes and soil-dependent response to land-use change along the profile. In this study, a spatial-temporal analysis was used to estimate soil organic carbon (SOC) change in topsoil/A horizon and subsoil/B horizon at National Ecological Observatory Network (NEON) sites, USA over 30 years. To separate the effects of land-use, environmental, and edaphic factors on SOC change, space-for-time substitution was used in combination with the Continuous Change Detection and Classification algorithm and Structural Equation Modeling. Results showed that (a) under natural vegetation, Spodosols and Inceptisols found in the eastern NEON sites had substantial topsoil SOC accumulation (+0.4 to +1.2 Mg C ha –1 year –1 ), while Inceptisols and Andisols in the west had a comparable magnitude of topsoil SOC loss (–0.5 to –1.8 Mg C ha –1 year –1 ); (b) Mollisols and Alfisols in the Central Plains sites were susceptible to significant SOC loss under farming and grazing; (c) Runoff/erosion and leaching potential, vertical translocation, and mineral sorption were the most important factors controlling SOC variation across the NEON sites. Our work could be used to parameterize ecosystem models simulating SOC change.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

AmeriFlux FLUXNET-1F CA-ARB Attawapiskat River Bog

This is the AmeriFlux Management Project (AMP) created FLUXNET-1F version of the carbon flux data for the site CA-ARB Attawapiskat River Bog. This is the FLUXNET version of the carbon flux data for the site CA-ARB Attawapiskat River Bog produced by applying the standard ONEFlux (1F) software. Site Description - Ontario Ministry of Environment and Climate Change's Environmental Monitoring and Reporting Branch has established five carbon flux monitoring towers in Ontario’s Far North as part of its Climate Change Modelling and Monitoring program. These long term monitoring stations measure carbon exchange and a suite of soil and meteorological parameters over peatland ecosystems to better understand carbon cycling in Ontario’s Far North. Information produced by these monitoring stations will assist the province in land use planning and the development of climate change adaptation strategies.

Todd, Aaron↗

AmeriFlux FLUXNET-1F CA-ARF Attawapiskat River Fen

This is the AmeriFlux Management Project (AMP) created FLUXNET-1F version of the carbon flux data for the site CA-ARF Attawapiskat River Fen. This is the FLUXNET version of the carbon flux data for the site CA-ARF Attawapiskat River Fen produced by applying the standard ONEFlux (1F) software. Site Description - Ontario Ministry of Environment and Climate Change's Environmental Monitoring and Reporting Branch has established five carbon flux monitoring towers in Ontario’s Far North as part of its Climate Change Modelling and Monitoring program. These long term monitoring stations measure carbon exchange and a suite of soil and meteorological parameters over peatland ecosystems to better understand carbon cycling in Ontario’s Far North. Information produced by these monitoring stations will assist the province in land use planning and the development of climate change adaptation strategies.

Todd, Aaron↗

AmeriFlux CA-PB2 Polar Bear 2 - Fen

This is the AmeriFlux version of the carbon flux data for the site CA-PB2 Polar Bear 2 - Fen. Site Description - Ontario Ministry of Environment and Climate Change's Environmental Monitoring and Reporting Branch has established five carbon flux monitoring towers in Ontario’s Far North as part of its Climate Change Modelling and Monitoring program. These long term monitoring stations measure carbon exchange and a suite of soil and meteorological parameters over peatland ecosystems to better understand carbon cycling in Ontario’s Far North. Information produced by these monitoring stations will assist the province in land use planning and the development of climate change adaptation strategies.

Humphreys, Elyn [Carleton University]↗

AmeriFlux CA-PB1 Polar Bear 1 - Peat Plateau

This is the AmeriFlux version of the carbon flux data for the site CA-PB1 Polar Bear 1 - Peat Plateau. Site Description - Ontario Ministry of Environment and Climate Change's Environmental Monitoring and Reporting Branch has established five carbon flux monitoring towers in Ontario’s Far North as part of its Climate Change Modelling and Monitoring program. These long term monitoring stations measure carbon exchange and a suite of soil and meteorological parameters over peatland ecosystems to better understand carbon cycling in Ontario’s Far North. Information produced by these monitoring stations will assist the province in land use planning and the development of climate change adaptation strategies.

Humphreys, Elyn [Carleton University]↗

AmeriFlux CA-KLP Kinoje Lake Peatland

This is the AmeriFlux version of the carbon flux data for the site CA-KLP Kinoje Lake Peatland. Site Description - Ontario Ministry of Environment and Climate Change's Environmental Monitoring and Reporting Branch has established five carbon flux monitoring towers in Ontario’s Far North as part of its Climate Change Modelling and Monitoring program. These long term monitoring stations measure carbon exchange and a suite of soil and meteorological parameters over peatland ecosystems to better understand carbon cycling in Ontario’s Far North. Information produced by these monitoring stations will assist the province in land use planning and the development of climate change adaptation strategies.

Humphreys, Elyn [Carleton University]↗

AmeriFlux FLUXNET-1F CA-KLP Kinoje Lake Peatland

This is the AmeriFlux Management Project (AMP) created FLUXNET-1F version of the carbon flux data for the site CA-KLP Kinoje Lake Peatland. This is the FLUXNET version of the carbon flux data for the site CA-KLP Kinoje Lake Peatland produced by applying the standard ONEFlux (1F) software. Site Description - Ontario Ministry of Environment and Climate Change's Environmental Monitoring and Reporting Branch has established five carbon flux monitoring towers in Ontario’s Far North as part of its Climate Change Modelling and Monitoring program. These long term monitoring stations measure carbon exchange and a suite of soil and meteorological parameters over peatland ecosystems to better understand carbon cycling in Ontario’s Far North. Information produced by these monitoring stations will assist the province in land use planning and the development of climate change adaptation strategies.

Humphreys, Elyn [Carleton University]↗