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At least 325 records · Page 18

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DOE OSTI2024

Dynamic data-driven multiscale modeling for predicting the degradation of a 316L stainless steel nuclear cladding material

Here, we have developed a long short-term memory stacked ensemble (LSTM-SE) surrogate modeling approach that can provide rapid predictions of microstructural evolution and the resultant mechanical properties of American Iron and Steel Institute (AISI) 316L series stainless steel (316LSS) fuel cladding under conditions of varying temperature and radiation dose rate. To acquire training data, we developed and implemented a kinetic Monte Carlo (KMC) model to simulate precipitation kinetics of M 23 C 6 , γ', and G phases within SS316L cladding. Experimentally reported precipitation kinetics of SS316L in literature were linked to the kinetic parameters of the simulated precipitation in our KMC model. The model was then used to simulate microstructure evolution under synthetically generated treatments of varying temperature and radiation dose rate, for periods of up to 3000 hours. Changes in volume fraction, number density, and particle size of precipitates were recorded, and particle area fractions were correlated using statistical methods to develop the surrogate model. Simultaneously, the mechanical properties of the simulated microstructures were evaluated using microstructure-based finite element method (FEM) analysis to determine the elastic modulus, yield stress, ultimate tensile strength, and elongation to failure of the aged microstructures. Using this approach, our surrogate model can predict precipitation behavior within 0.25% volume fraction and mechanical properties within 6% relative error from the values predicted by the KMC and FEM models using 50 training simulations as input. The trained recurrent neural network-based model can return estimations of precipitation kinetics and mechanical properties ~1000 times faster than the physics-based codes. This work demonstrates, as a proof of concept, that reactor material service lifetimes under variable service conditions can be predicted for a statistics-based model from a practicably obtainable dataset.

36 MATERIALS SCIENCE↗

DOE OSTI2025

Real-time elemental analysis of liquids for process monitoring using laser-induced breakdown spectroscopy with a liquid wheel sampling approach

This article presents an engineered sampling system that used a rotating wheel to form a thin liquid layer, permitting the use of laser-induced breakdown spectroscopy (LIBS) for in situ, real-time elemental impurity quantification during liquid processing. The sampling approach was demonstrated on eight elements from across the periodic table (Na, Al, K, Ca, Ti, Sr, Mo, and Yb). Univariate and multivariate calibrations were presented for each element. The average value for percent root mean square errors of cross-validation for the multivariate models was 3.64%, highlighting the method's strong prediction accuracy. Additionally, the limits of detection for each analyte were estimated from their univariate models: Na = 0.0532, Al = 18.5, K = 0.105, Ca = 0.273, Ti = 67.7, Sr = 0.640, Mo = 22.4, and Yb = 22.9 μg mL –1 . Finally, a test in which multivariate models were used to monitor a liquid system for 80 min was performed to investigate the real-time monitoring capabilities of this liquid LIBS sampling approach. Rigorous measurements were performed to effectively predict the absence and concentrations of multiple analytes as they were spiked and diluted. This demonstration showed the feasibility of using LIBS for real-time liquid quantification models with estimated precision ≤ 8.1%. Finally, the limitations of this approach and potential future improvements are discussed.

37 INORGANIC, ORGANIC, PHYSICAL, AND ANALYTICAL CH↗

DOE OSTI2026

Real-time reconstruction and control of pedestal-top electron density using RMP and gas puff at KSTAR

We report the experimental results of controlling the pedestal-top electron density by applying resonant magnetic perturbation (RMP) with in-vessel control coils and the main gas puff in the 2024-2025 KSTAR experimental campaign. The density is reconstructed using a parameterized $ψ_N$ grid and five channels of line-averaged density measured by the two-colored interferometer (TCI). The reconstruction procedure is accelerated by deploying a multi-layer perceptron to run in approximately 120 µ s and is sufficiently fast for real-time control. A proportional-integral controller was adopted, with the controller gains estimated from the system identification procedure. The experimental results demonstrate that the developed controller can follow a dynamic target while exclusively using both actuators. The absolute percentage errors between the electron density at $ψ_N$ = 0.89 and the target were approximately 1.5% median and a 2.5% average, respectively. The developed controller can even lower the density by using the pump-out mechanism under RMP, and it can follow a more dynamic range of density targets than a single actuator controller. The developed controller will enable experimental scenario exploration within a shot by dynamically setting the density target or maintaining a constant electron density within a discharge.

EFIT↗

DOE OSTI2026

DESI DR2 Baryon Acoustic Oscillations from the Lyman Alpha Forest Multipoles

We present an alternative measurement of the Baryon Acoustic Oscillation (BAO) using the Legendre multipole representation of the Ly$α$ forest correlation functions from the second data release (DR2) of the Dark Energy Spectroscopic Instrument survey. Compressing the auto- and cross-correlation functions into Legendre multipoles yields a positive-definite covariance matrix without any smoothing -- unlike the baseline DR2 analysis -- thanks to a significantly reduced data vector size. We introduce the statistical corrections required to debias the finite-sample covariance matrix estimate and demonstrate that monopole and quadrupole terms for both auto- and cross-correlations can be used even when the correlation functions are distorted by continuum errors and contaminated by metals. This formalism has slightly diminished the constraining power of the BAO scale, while considerably weakening constraints on nuisance parameters. We measure the isotropic BAO scale with $0.93\%$ precision at $z_\mathrm{eff}=2.35$, the Hubble parameter $H(z_\mathrm{eff})=(239.5\pm3.4)~(147.09~\mathrm{Mpc}/r_d) ~\mathrm{km~s}^{-1}~\text{Mpc}^{-1}$, and the transverse comoving distance $D_M(z_\mathrm{eff})=(5.80 \pm 0.10)~(r_d/147.09~\mathrm{Mpc})$~Gpc for a given value of the sound horizon ($r_d$). Our BAO results are entirely consistent with the baseline DR2 analysis.

Karaçaylı, Naim Göksel [Chicago U., KICP; Ohio Sta↗

DOE OSTI2025

Robust Solution Verification Experiments on Nonuniform Meshes

The activities of verification, validation, and uncertainty quantification (VVUQ) provide a comprehensive means to assess the credibility of computational models. Within VVUQ, solution verification assesses numerical errors and evaluates whether the simulation is sufficiently accurate for its intended applications. As computational modeling gains traction in the development of complex, high-consequence systems, the need for robust solution verification intensifies, particularly because experimental data for these systems are often limited. This work examines improvements in the robustness of Richardson extrapolation (RE), a method commonly used in solution verification to study the discretization error of computational models using a power law. Nonuniform mesh refinement is discussed alongside other pollutants that affect the robustness of the power law model. Maximum likelihood estimation (MLE) is proposed as a robust strategy to address the uncertainty generated by nonuniform mesh refinement. An exploratory computational fluid dynamics (CFD) study of a 2D planar Poiseuille flow is conducted to determine if nonuniform mesh noise can be modeled with this MLE approach for more robust RE.

Weinmeister, Justin [ORNL] (ORCID:0000000160090237↗

DOE OSTI2026

Differences in cluster and internal wake effects from mesoscale and large-eddy simulations off the US East Coast

Mesoscale simulations are increasingly used to estimate wake effects within and between large wind farms, despite limited validation for large-scale wake effects. This study evaluates the capabilities and limitations of mesoscale simulations in capturing wake-induced impacts on wind turbine power production through a direct comparison with large-domain large-eddy simulations (LESs) for three planned offshore wind farms under realistic atmospheric conditions and a range of atmospheric stabilities. We assess mesoscale performance in replicating wake characteristics behind single and multiple turbine clusters and quantify the resulting variability in mean turbine power. Results show that mesoscale Weather Research and Forecasting simulations with the Fitch wind farm parameterization capture key features of the velocity deficit downstream of both single and multiple wind farms, with mean root-mean-square errors near 5 % and good agreement with stability-driven wake behavior. However, in these simulations, the mesoscale Fitch parameterization underestimates power losses from internal wake effects, particularly when turbines align with the prevailing wind direction or under stable stratification. In these conditions, individual wakes persist and dominate downstream power deficits. The coarse resolution of the mesoscale simulations limits their ability to resolve individual wind turbine wakes that drive power fluctuations within wind farms. Nonetheless, mesoscale simulations can yield accurate estimates of combined wake losses from internal and cluster effects across some wind direction sectors, where errors in wake representation may cancel each other out. These findings underscore the strengths of mesoscale simulations for capturing broader wake patterns while highlighting their limitations for modeling turbine-level power losses. Future work should explore hybrid modeling approaches to capture both long-range cluster wake propagation and localized internal wake dynamics.

17 WIND ENERGY↗

DOE OSTI2025

Accurate shear estimation with fourth-order moments

ABSTRACT As imaging surveys progress in exploring the large-scale structure of the Universe through the use of weak gravitational lensing, achieving sub-per cent accuracy in estimating shape distortions caused by lensing, or shear, is imperative for precision cosmology. In this paper, we extend the Fourier power function shapelets (FPFS) shear estimator using fourth-order shapelet moments and combine it with the original second-order shear estimator to reduce galaxy shape noise. We calibrate this novel shear estimator analytically to a sub-per cent level-accuracy using the AnaCal framework. This higher order shear estimator is tested with realistic image simulations, and after analytical correction for the detection/selection bias and noise bias, the multiplicative shear bias $|m|$ is below $3\times 10^{-3}$ (99.7 per cent confidence interval) for both isolated and blended galaxies. Once combined with the second-order FPFS shear estimator, the shape noise is reduced by $\sim 35~{{\ \rm per\ cent}}$ for isolated galaxies in simulations with Hyper Suprime-Cam and Vera C. Rubin Observatory Legacy Survey of Space and Time observational conditions. However, for blended galaxies, the effective number density does not significantly improve with the combination of the two estimators. Based on these results, we recommend exploration of how this framework can further reduce the systematic uncertainties in shear due to point spread function leakage and modelling error, and potentially provide improved precision in shear inference in high-resolution space-based images.

79 ASTRONOMY AND ASTROPHYSICS↗

DOE OSTI2026

SpaceNet 9—Cross-Sensor Alignment of Optical and SAR Imagery

Precise registration of high-resolution synthetic aperture radar (SAR) and optical imagery is necessary for realizing the full potential and benefits of multimodal image analysis. However, two significant challenges presently exist. First, there is a lack of annotated datasets and benchmarks available for high-resolution SAR–optical image registration. Second, an assessment of efficient and reliable image registration methods that can precisely align these modalities is lacking. Here, we present a holistic description of the SpaceNet 9 Challenge and its results. We present a description of the dataset and baseline algorithm along with the results of the challenge, including a description of the winning algorithms. We release the SpaceNet 9 dataset along with open-sourcing the winning algorithms and baseline. The objective of SpaceNet 9 was to compute a dense displacement map that indicates the shift needed to align pixels in an optical image to the pixels in a SAR image. The challenge launched in April 2025 and was active for approximately two months. The top five solutions reduced image alignment error from approximately 34 m to under 13 m for public and private test data, with the best results obtaining a registration error of only 8.5 and 6.7 m on the public testing and private testing dataset, respectively. Usage of pretrained image matching models, robust outlier rejection with RANSAC, and estimating local displacement were common among the top solutions. The results of this challenge provide insight into high-resolution SAR–optical image registration and offer opportunities for future benchmarking in this domain. The baseline algorithm, winning solutions, and datasets are available at https://spacenet.ai/sn9-challenge/.

benchmark datasets↗

DOE OSTI2024

Dead Fuel Moisture Content Reanalysis Dataset for California (2000–2020)

This study presents a novel reanalysis dataset of dead fuel moisture content (DFMC) across California from 2000 to 2020 at a 2 km resolution. Utilizing a data assimilation system that integrates a simplified time-lag fuel moisture model with 10-h fuel moisture observations from remote automated weather stations (RAWS) allowed predictions of 10-h fuel moisture content by our method with a mean absolute error of 0.03 g/g compared to the widely used Nelson model, with a mean absolute error prediction of 0.05 g/g. For context, the values of DFMC in California are commonly between 0.05 g/g and 0.30 g/g. The presented product provides gridded hourly moisture estimates for 1-h, 10-h, 100-h, and 1000-h fuels, essential for analyzing historical fire activity and understanding climatological trends. The methodology presented here demonstrates significant advancements in the accuracy and robustness of fuel moisture estimates, which are critical for fire forecasting and management.

Farguell, Angel (ORCID:000000032395220X)↗

DOE OSTI2025

A provably stable numerical method for the anisotropic diffusion equation in confined magnetic fields

We present a novel numerical method for solving the anisotropic diffusion equation in magnetic fields confined to a periodic box which is accurate and provably stable. We derive energy estimates of the solution of the continuous initial boundary value problem. A discrete formulation is presented using operator splitting in time with the summation by parts finite difference approximation of spatial derivatives for the perpendicular diffusion operator. Weak penalty procedures are derived for implementing both boundary conditions and parallel diffusion operator obtained by field line tracing. We prove that the fully-discrete approximation is unconditionally stable. Discrete energy estimates are shown to match the continuous energy estimate given the correct choice of penalty parameters. A nonlinear penalty parameter is shown to provide an effective method for tuning the parallel diffusion penalty and significantly minimises rounding errors. Several numerical experiments, using manufactured solutions, the “NIMROD benchmark” problem and a single island problem, are presented to verify numerical accuracy, convergence, and asymptotic preserving properties of the method. Finally, we present a magnetic field with chaotic regions and islands and show the contours of the anisotropic diffusion equation reproduce key features in the field.

70 PLASMA PHYSICS AND FUSION TECHNOLOGY↗

DOE OSTI2025

Adaptive Algebraic Derivative Estimation for Battery Electric Buses Energy Consumption Forecasting

The limited service life of onboard batteries for EVs is a challenge, underscoring the need for real-time battery usage prediction. This paper proposes an adaptive Algebraic Derivative Estimation (ADE) approach for forecasting the energy consumption of battery electric buses. By dynamically adjusting the sliding window length, the adaptive ADE retains the fixed-length ADE’s key advantage—namely, operating online without reliance on extensive historical datasets—while substantially bolstering forecast accuracy by actively trading estimation bias off estimation variance. Comparative experiments against both the conventional ADE with a fixed length and a representative machine learning algorithm, XGBoost, were conducted, with performance evaluated via root mean square error, mean absolute error, and the coefficient of determination. The results demonstrate that the proposed approach significantly outperforms baseline methods.

Cui, Tianyang [The University of Texas at Dallas]↗

DOE OSTI2024

Estimation of Forest Aboveground Biomass from Derivatives of Vegetation-Structure Profiles

Several studies have found that the vertical Fourier transform of lidar, interferometric Synthetic Aperture Radar (SAR), and stereo photogrammetric profiles at empirically-determined spatial frequencies enables high-performance forest aboveground biomass (AGB) estimation. Linear combinations of real and imaginary parts of Fourier transforms of Tomographic (multi-baseline) SAR (TomoSAR) profiles, from Uninhabited Aerial Vehicle Synthetic Aperture Radar (UAVSAR) airborne data, generate ~20%-precision estimates of AGB in the Saskatchewan area of Canada. We found that this 20% precision can be improved to ~15%, a factor of 30% improvement in root mean square error (RMSE) if, in addition to using Fourier transforms of the profile itself, we use Fourier transforms of the spatial, vertical derivative of the profile. The formulation of this "derivative" algorithm is the subject of this paper.

Treuhaft, Robert↗

DOE OSTI2026

Improved Regional Moment Tensor Inversion for Moderately Large Earthquakes in the Western United States Using a 3D Earth Model Based on Full Waveform Tomography

The nature of seismic sources for moderately large (moment magnitude, M w 5.0–6.5) events are commonly characterized by their moment tensor (MT) solutions and obtained by inversion of regional distance (200–1600 km) long‐period (20–50 s) waveforms. Regional MT estimates are often calculated from average plane‐layered, one‐dimensional (1D) velocity models. However, 1D model calculations can produce misfits in the arrival times and waveform shapes that introduce errors, particularly at longer distances or for shorter periods, which are necessary for analyzing lower magnitude events. Approximate Earth models (e.g., 1D) representing broad areas may be inadequate, particularly in the crust and uppermost mantle of tectonically complex regions. In this study, we show how a three‐dimensional (3D) Earth model obtained from full waveform inversion tomography can improve waveform fits and decrease phase errors. We developed a platform and workflow to perform routine 3D MT inversions and inverted MTs for 25 earthquakes in the western United States and seven nuclear explosions using an average 1D and a recent 3D Earth model, WUS256 (Rodgers et al., 2022). Using the 3D model improves waveform fits (variance reduction and phase time shifts) compared with the 1D model, and the 3D MT solutions are stable across large distances. This study shows that 3D models obtained from full waveform tomography can improve MTs and source characterization especially at far regional distances (>800 km).

Geosciences↗

DOE OSTI2025

Rhode Island Site - NREL ASSIST Thermodynamic Retrievals TROPoe v0.19 / Derived Data

This dataset contains daily files with thermodynamic profiles retrieved with the optimal estimation physical retrieval TROPoe v0.19 (Turner and Löhnert, 2014; Turner and Blumberg, 2019; Turner and Löhnert, 2021). The profiles are retrieved every 10 minutes from instantaneous observations from the NREL ASSIST-II (SN 12) infrared spectrometer. Observations are noise-filtered but not averaged in time to minimize errors due to non-uniform clouds. Additional input data in TROPoe are cloud base height from the collocated NREL upgraded Galion lidar (Newsom et al., 2019), and surface temperature, relative humidity, and pressure from the collocated PNNL met tower. The full pipeline to run the retrieval is available at https://github.com/StefanoWind/TROPoe_processor. In addition to these temporally resolved input data, TROPoe requires an a priori dataset (prior) that provides mean climatological estimates of thermodynamic profiles and specifies how temperature and humidity covary with height as an input (for details see, e.g., Djalalova et al., 2022). The prior is a key component of the retrieval and provides a constraint on the ill-posed inversion problem. A monthly prior was computed from operational radiosonde launches at Upton, NY.

17 WIND ENERGY↗

DOE OSTI2024

Lattice QCD calculation of 𝑥-dependent meson distribution amplitudes at physical pion mass with threshold logarithm resummation

We present a lattice quantum chromodynamics (QCD) calculation of the 𝑥-dependent pion and kaon distribution amplitudes (DA) in the framework of large momentum effective theory. This calculation is performed on a fine lattice of 𝑎 = 0.076 fm at physical pion mass, with the pion boosted to 1.8 GeV and kaon boosted to 2.3 GeV. We renormalize the matrix elements in the hybrid scheme and match to Math output error with a subtraction of the leading renormalon in the Wilson-line mass. The perturbative matching is improved by resumming the large logarithms related to the small quark and gluon momenta in the soft-gluon limit. After resummation, we demonstrate that we are able to calculate a range of 𝑥 ∈[𝑥 0 ,1 − 𝑥 0 ] with 𝑥 0 = 0.25 for pion and 𝑥 0 = 0.2 for kaon with theoretical systematic errors under control. The kaon DA is shown to be slighted skewed, and narrower than pion DA. Although the 𝑥-dependence cannot be direct calculated beyond these ranges, we estimate higher moments of the pion and kaon DAs by complementing our calculation with short-distance factorization.

73 NUCLEAR PHYSICS AND RADIATION PHYSICS↗

DOE OSTI2025

The Principle of Maximum Conformality Correctly Resolves the Renormalization-Scheme-Dependence Problem

In this paper, we clarify a serious misinterpretation and consequent misuse of the Principle of Maximum Conformality (PMC), which also can serve as a mini-review of PMC. In a recently published article, P. M. Stevenson has claimed that “the PMC is ineffective and does nothing to resolve the renormalization-scheme-dependence problem”, concluding incorrectly that the success of PMC predictions is due to the PMC being a “laborious, ad hoc, and back-door” version of the Principle of Minimal Sensitivity (PMS). We show that such conclusions are incorrect, deriving from a misinterpretation of the PMC and an overestimation of the applicability of the PMS. The purpose of the PMC is to achieve precise fixed-order pQCD predictions, free from conventional renormalization schemes and scale ambiguities. We demonstrate that the PMC predictions satisfy all the self-consistency conditions of the renormalization group and standard renormalization-group invariance; the PMC predictions are thus independent of any initial choice of renormalization scheme and scale. The scheme independence of the PMC is also ensured by commensurate scale relations, which relate different observables to each other. Moreover, in the Abelian limit, the PMC dovetails into the well-known Gell-Mann–Low framework, a method universally revered for its precision in QED calculations. Due to the elimination of factorially divergent renormalon terms, the PMC series not only attains a convergence behavior far superior to that of its conventional counterparts but also deftly curtails any residual scale dependence caused by the unknown higher-order terms. This refined convergence, coupled with its robust suppression of residual uncertainties, furnishes a sound and reliable foundation for estimating the contributions from unknown higher-order terms. Anchored in the bedrock of standard renormalization-group invariance, the PMC simultaneously eradicates the factorial divergences and eliminates superfluous systematic errors, which inversely provides a good foundation for achieving high-precision pQCD predictions. Consequently, owing to its rigorous theoretical underpinnings, the PMC is eminently applicable to virtually all high-energy hadronic processes.

71 CLASSICAL AND QUANTUM MECHANICS, GENERAL PHYSIC↗

DOE OSTI2025

Rapid Initial-State Preparation for the Quantum Simulation of Strongly Correlated Molecules

Studies on quantum algorithms for ground-state energy estimation often assume perfect ground-state preparation; however, in reality the initial state will have imperfect overlap with the true ground state. Here, we address that problem in two ways: by faster preparation of matrix-product-state (MPS) approximations and by more efficient filtering of the prepared state to find the ground-state energy. We show how to achieve unitary synthesis with a Toffoli complexity about 7 × lower than that in prior work and use that to derive a more efficient MPS-preparation method. For filtering, we present two different approaches: sampling and binary search. For both, we use the theory of window functions to avoid large phase errors and minimize the complexity. We find that the binary-search approach provides better scaling with the overlap at the cost of a larger constant factor, such that it will be preferred for overlaps less than about 0.003 . Finally, we estimate the total resources to perform ground-state energy estimation of Fe - S cluster systems, including the Fe Mo cofactor by estimating the overlap of different MPS initial states with potential ground states of the Fe Mo cofactor using an extrapolation procedure. With a modest MPS bond dimension of 4000 , our procedure produces an estimate of approximately 0.9 overlap squared with a candidate ground state of the Fe Mo cofactor, producing a total resource estimate of 7.3 × 10 10 Toffoli gates; neglecting the search over candidates and assuming the accuracy of the extrapolation, this validates prior estimates that have used perfect ground-state overlap. This presents an example of a practical path to prepare states of high overlap in a challenging-to-compute chemical system. Published by the American Physical Society 2025

Berry, Dominic W. (ORCID:0000000334461449)↗

DOE OSTI2025

NREL ASSIST Barge / Thermodynamic retrievals TROPoe v0.19

This dataset contains daily files with thermodynamic profiles retrieved with the optimal estimation physical retrieval TROPoe v0.19 (Turner and Löhnert, 2014; Turner and Blumberg, 2019; Turner and Löhnert, 2021). The profiles are retrieved every 10 minutes from instantaneous observations from the NREL ASSIST-II (SN 12) infrared spectrometer. Observations are noise-filtered but not averaged in time to minimize errors due to non-uniform clouds. Additional input data in TROPoe are cloud base height from a collocated NREL Vaisala CL51 ceilometer (when available) or vertically staring Halo XR lidar, and surface temperature, relative humidity, and pressure from the collocated Oregon State University met tower. The full pipeline to run the retrieval is available at https://github.com/StefanoWind/TROPoe_processor. In addition to these temporally resolved input data, TROPoe requires an a priori dataset (prior) that provides mean climatological estimates of thermodynamic profiles and specifies how temperature and humidity covary with height as an input (for details see, e.g., Djalalova et al., 2022). The prior is a key component of the retrieval and provides a constraint on the ill-posed inversion problem. A monthly prior was computed from operational radiosonde launches at Upton, NY.

17 WIND ENERGY↗