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DOE OSTI2022

Using probabilistic solar power forecasts to inform flexible ramp product procurement for the California ISO

How can independent system operators (ISOs) take advantage of probabilistic solar forecasts to lower generation costs and improve reliability of power systems? We discuss one three-step approach for doing so, focusing on how such forecasts might help the California Independent System Operator (CAISO) prepare unexpected net load ramps, where net load equals gross demand minus wind and solar production. First, we enhance an existing solar forecasting system to provide well-calibrated hours-ahead probabilistic forecasts. We then relate the degree of uncertainty reflected in the forecasted prediction intervals (independent variables) to error distributions for net load ramp forecasts for the CAISO real-time market (dependent variable) using machine learning and quantile regression. Projected ramp forecast errors conditioned on solar uncertainty are translated into flexible ramp requirements that therefore reflect real-time meteorological and solar conditions, improving on typical ISO procedures. Detailed descriptions are provided on the quantile regression and kth-nearest neighbor categorization methods for accomplishing that translation. Finally, a multiple time-scale look-ahead market simulation model is applied to a 118-bus IEEE Reliability Test System, modified to represent the CAISO generation mix and demand distributions. The model runs quantify how solar-conditioned ramp requirements can, first, decrease operating costs by reducing requirements compared to often conservative unconditional methods and, second, decrease generation scarcity events and consequently improve reliability by increasing flexibility requirements at times when unconditional forecast-based requirements understate actual ramp uncertainty. Solar-conditioned ramp requirements are found to reduce generation operating costs by about 2% for the test system (which would be equivalent to over $\$100$ million per year for a CAISO-size system).

14 SOLAR ENERGY↗

DOE OSTI2026

A dendritic strontium river isoscape for fisheries applications in the Sacramento River basin, California, USA

Objective Understanding the origins and movements of fish is fundamental to effective conservation and fisheries management. Strontium isotope ratios ( 87 Sr/ 86 Sr) in otoliths provide a powerful tracer of natal origin and migratory pathways. However, existing 87 Sr/ 86 Sr isoscapes for the Sacramento River basin, an ecosystem that supports ecologically and economically important salmon populations, rely on discrete classification approaches that overlook unsampled habitats and do not incorporate spatial uncertainty. Our objective was to develop a continuous, network-explicit 87 Sr/ 86 Sr isoscape with quantified uncertainty to fill in data gaps and enable probabilistic assignments of fish origin and movement. Methods We used river water 87 Sr/ 86 Sr data from 106 sites (1997–2021) to develop spatial stream network models that use dendritic connectivity and watershed characteristics (lithology, bedrock age, and land cover) to predict river water 87 Sr/ 86 Sr throughout the basin. Models were fitted using maximum and restricted likelihood and were evaluated via Akaike’s information criterion and leave-one-out cross validation. We produced both historical (pre-dam) and present-day (below-dam) isoscapes, delineated uncertainty-informed isotopic ranges using k -means clustering, and applied a proof-of-concept Bayesian assignment to estimate natal origins and early rearing habitats for two endangered winter-run Chinook Salmon Oncorhynchus tshawytscha. Results Cross validation indicated strong performance of the 87 Sr/ 86 Sr model (leave-one-out cross validation: R 2 = 0.91; root mean square error = 0.0005). Uncertainty-informed clustering identified 19 isotopic “suites” (reaches with indistinguishable 87 Sr/ 86 Sr values) in present-day anadromous habitats and 25 suites in the historical network. Example natal and early rearing assignments included predictions that challenged expectations for juvenile salmon migration based on predicted river 87 Sr/ 86 Sr compositions. Conclusions This study developed a continuous, network-explicit 87 Sr/ 86 Sr isoscape that integrates existing river data to predict 87 Sr/ 86 Sr in unsampled reaches and the likely achievable range and resolution of otolith-based origin and life history inference. The resulting river isoscape provides a valuable tool to predict salmon movements and identify habitats supporting their survival and growth that otherwise might remain undetected. Coupling these predictions with complementary approaches that ground-truth juvenile presence (e.g., targeted fish surveys) represents an important step toward science-informed restoration and management of critical habitats throughout the Sacramento River basin.

Environmental sciences↗

NASA NTRS2014

Supersonic Retropropulsion Test 1853 in NASA LaRC Unitary Plan Wind Tunnel Test Section 2

A supersonic retropropulsion experiment was conducted in the Langley Research Center Unitary Plan Wind Tunnel Test Section 2 at Mach numbers of 2.4, 3.5, and 4.6. Intended as a code validation effort, this study used pretest computations to size and refine the model such that tunnel blockage and internal flow separations were minimized. A 5-in diameter 70 degree sphere-cone forebody, which can accommodate up to four 4:1 area ratio nozzles, followed by a 9.55 inches long cylindrical aft body was selected for this test after computational maturation. The primary measurements for this experiment were high spatial-density surface pressures. In addition, high speed schlieren video and internal pressures and temperatures were acquired. The test included parametric variations in the number of nozzles utilized, thrust coefficients (roughly 0 to 4), and angles of attack (-8 to 20 degrees). The run matrix was developed to also allow quantification of various sources of experimental uncertainty, such as random errors due to run-to-run variations and systematic errors due to flowfield or model misalignments. To accommodate the uncertainty assessment, many runs and replicates were conducted with the model at various locations within the tunnel and with model roll angles of 0, 60, 120, and 180 degrees. This test report provides operational details of the experiment, contains a review of trends, and provides all schlieren and pressure results within appendices.

Berry, Scott A.↗

NASA NTRS1989

Wide swath ocean topography mapping with interferometric altimeters

An interferometric radar altimeter is proposed to provide wide-swath high-resolution ocean topography. Several system design issues of such an interferometric altimeter are presented. Tradeoffs between processing of the interferometric signal using the so-called amplitude approach and the so-called phase approach are shown. The systematic errors associated with uncertainties in the interferometer baseline and the attitude of interferometer orientation are also discussed. Described is an approach using the measurements at orbit cross-over regions, together with the topography measurements from a traditional nadir-looking altimeter that are not contaminated by the baseline and attitude noises. Preliminary simulation results show that such an approach can generate an acceptable error level if the ocean surface does not change appreciably between the observations.

Rodriguez, E.↗

DOE OSTI2020

Unrecognized Sources of Uncertainties ( USU ) in Experimental Nuclear Data

Evaluated nuclear data uncertainties reported in the literature or archived in data libraries are often perceived as unrealistic, most often because they are thought to be too small. The impact of this issue in applied nuclear science has been discussed widely in recent years. Commonly suggested causes are: poor estimates of specific error components, neglect of uncertainty correlations, and overlooked known error sources. However, instances have been reported where very careful, objective assessments of all known error sources have been made with realistic error magnitudes and correlations provided, yet the resulting evaluated uncertainties still appear to be inconsistent with observed scatter of predicted mean values. These discrepancies might be attributed to significant unrecognized sources of uncertainty ( USU ) that limit the accuracy to which these physical quantities can be determined. The objective of our work reported herein has been to develop qualitative and quantitative procedures for revealing and including USU estimates in nuclear data evaluations involving experimental input data. This paper identifies several specific clues that can be explored by evaluators in identifying the existence of USU . It then describes numerical procedures we have introduced to generate quantitative estimates of USU magnitudes. Key requirements for these procedures to be viable are that sufficient numbers of data points be available, for statistical reasons, and that additional supporting information about the measurements be provided by the experimenters. Several realistic examples are described here to illustrate these procedures and demonstrate their outcomes and limitations. Our work strongly supports the view that USU is an important issue in nuclear data evaluation, with significant consequences for applications, and that this topic warrants further investigation by the nuclear science community.

73 NUCLEAR PHYSICS AND RADIATION PHYSICS↗

DOE OSTI2024

Impact of Systematic Modeling Uncertainties on Kilonova Property Estimation

The precise atomic structure and therefore the wavelength-dependent opacities of lanthanides are highly uncertain. This uncertainty introduces systematic errors in modeling transients like kilonovae and estimating key properties such as mass, characteristic velocity, and heavy metal content. Here, we quantify how atomic data from across the literature as well as choices of thermalization efficiency of r-process radioactive decay heating impact the light curve and spectra of kilonovae. Specifically, we analyze the spectra of a grid of models produced by the radiative transfer code Sedona that span the expected range of kilonova properties to identify regions with the highest systematic uncertainty. Our findings indicate that differences in atomic data have a substantial impact on estimates of lanthanide mass fraction, spanning approximately 1 order of magnitude for lanthanide-rich ejecta, and demonstrate the difficulty in precisely measuring the lanthanide fraction in lanthanide-poor ejecta. Mass estimates vary typically by 25%–40% for differing atomic data. Similarly, the choice of thermalization efficiency can affect mass estimates by 20%–50%. Observational properties such as color and decay rate are highly model dependent. Velocity estimation, when fitting solely based on the light curve, can have a typical error of ∼100%. Atomic data of light r-process elements can strongly affect blue emission. Even for well-observed events like GW170817, the total lanthanide production estimated using different atomic data sets can vary by a factor of ∼6.

Gravitational wave sources↗

NASA NTRS1993

A practical approach to determining the uncertainty of a pressure measurement system

The pressure measurement systems located at three propulsion component test stands at the Marshall Space Flight Center (MSFC) were evaluated for their specific measurement uncertainty levels. An elemental error source evaluation was performed to provide an analytical estimate of uncertainty. Applied loads tests were also conducted at the different MSFC test sites to derive an empirical estimate of uncertainty for the measurement system process. The analytical results are compared to those obtained empirically. The data from MFSC was also compared to data reported from other comparable test facilities. Methods for acquiring and processing the data from calibration, acquisition, and reduction error sources are also addressed.

Fish, James E.↗

NASA NTRSDate not supplied

HIFiRE Flight 2 Unstart Reliability Analysis

The objective of this work was to assess the unstart reliability of the HIFiRE Flight 2 system. To do this, a quantification of margins and uncertainties framework was used for comparing model predictions of the predicted combustion induced shock location to the predicted last stable shock location within the isolator. Uncertainty sources included parametric uncertainty in the flight conditions, the heat release model, and turbulence modeling, as well as model verification errors. Additionally, an estimate of model-form uncertainty was established by comparing the model to measured ground test data. A computationally efficient non-intrusive polynomial chaos approach was used to propagate parametric uncertainty through the computational flu-ids dynamics models of both the ground test configuration and the flight vehicle. Compared to direct-connect ground test data, computational fluid dynamics predictions yielded about two duct heights of model-form uncertainty. This was applied to a prediction of flight vehicle unstart margin at the Mach 6.5 flight condition. Building up all of the computational model uncertainty, including parametric uncertainty, verification errors, and the determined model-form uncertainty, a 95% probability level based confidence ratio, or a ratio of total uncertainty to a statistical margin measure, was found to be 0.31 for the flight system.

Thomas K West↗

DOE OSTI2021

A fast multi-fidelity method with uncertainty quantification for complex data correlations: Application to vortex-induced vibrations of marine risers

Here we develop a fast multi-fidelity modeling method for very complex correlations between high- and low-fidelity data by working in modal space to extract the proper correlation function. We apply this method to infer the amplitude of motion of a flexible marine riser in cross-flow, subject to vortex-induced vibrations (VIV). VIV are driven by an absolute instability in the flow, which imposes a frequency (Strouhal) law that requires a matching with the impedance of the structure; this matching is easily achieved because of the rapid parametric variation of the added mass force. As a result, the wavenumber of the riser spatial response is within narrow bands of uncertainty. Hence, an error in wavenumber prediction can cause significant phase-related errors in the shape of the amplitude of response along the riser, rendering correlation between low- and high-fidelity data very complex. Working in modal space as outlined herein, dense data from low-fidelity data, provided by the semi-empirical computer code VIVA, can correlate in modal space with few high-fidelity data, obtained from experiments or fully-resolved CFD simulations, to correct both phase and amplitude and provide predictions that agree very well overall with the correct shape of the amplitude response. We also quantify the uncertainty in the prediction using Bayesian modeling and exploit this uncertainty to formulate an active learning strategy for the best possible location of the sensors providing the high fidelity measurements.

42 ENGINEERING↗

NASA NTRS2015

Estimating Uncertainties in the Multi-Instrument SBUV Profile Ozone Merged Data Set

The MOD data set is uniquely qualified for use in long-term ozone analysis because of its long record, high spatial coverage, and consistent instrument design and algorithm. The estimated MOD uncertainty term significantly increases the uncertainty over the statistical error alone. Trends in the post-2000 period are generally positive in the upper stratosphere, but only significant at 1-1.6 hPa. Remaining uncertainties not yet included in the Monte Carlo model are Smoothing Error ( 1 from 10 to 1 hPa) Relative calibration uncertainty between N11 and N17Seasonal cycle differences between SBUV records.

Uncertainties↗

NASA NTRS1984

Beta systems error analysis

The atmospheric backscatter coefficient, beta, measured with an airborne CO Laser Doppler Velocimeter (LDV) system operating in a continuous wave, focussed model is discussed. The Single Particle Mode (SPM) algorithm, was developed from concept through analysis of an extensive amount of data obtained with the system on board a NASA aircraft. The SPM algorithm is intended to be employed in situations where one particle at a time appears in the sensitive volume of the LDV. In addition to giving the backscatter coefficient, the SPM algorithm also produces as intermediate results the aerosol density and the aerosol backscatter cross section distribution. A second method, which measures only the atmospheric backscatter coefficient, is called the Volume Mode (VM) and was simultaneously employed. The results of these two methods differed by slightly less than an order of magnitude. The measurement uncertainties or other errors in the results of the two methods are examined.

Source record↗

NASA NTRS2006

Integrated Vehicle Health Management (IVHM) for Aerospace Systems

To achieve NASA's ambitious Integrated Space Transportation Program objectives, aerospace systems will implement a variety of new concept in health management. System level integration of IVHM technologies for real-time control and system maintenance will have significant impact on system safety and lifecycle costs. IVHM technologies will enhance the safety and success of complex missions despite component failures, degraded performance, operator errors, and environment uncertainty. IVHM also has the potential to reduce, or even eliminate many of the costly inspections and operations activities required by current and future aerospace systems. This presentation will describe the array of NASA programs participating in the development of IVHM technologies for NASA missions. Future vehicle systems will use models of the system, its environment, and other intelligent agents with which they may interact. IVHM will be incorporated into future mission planners, reasoning engines, and adaptive control systems that can recommend or execute commands enabling the system to respond intelligently in real time. In the past, software errors and/or faulty sensors have been identified as significant contributors to mission failures. This presentation will also address the development and utilization of highly dependable sohare and sensor technologies, which are key components to ensure the reliability of IVHM systems.

Baroth, Edmund C.↗

DOE OSTI2020

Cross-correlation of Planck CMB lensing with DESI-like LRGs

ABSTRACT Cross-correlations between the lensing of the cosmic microwave background (CMB) and other tracers of large-scale structure provide a unique way to reconstruct the growth of dark matter, break degeneracies between cosmology and galaxy physics, and test theories of modified gravity. We detect a cross-correlation between Dark Energy Spectroscopic Instrument (DESI)-like luminous red galaxies (LRGs) selected from DECam Legacy Survey imaging and CMB lensing maps reconstructed with the Planck satellite at a significance of S/N = 27.2 over scales ℓmin = 30, ℓmax = 1000. To correct for magnification bias, we determine the slope of the LRG cumulative magnitude function at the faint limit as s = 0.999 ± 0.015, and find corresponding corrections of the order of a few per cent for $C^{\kappa g}_{\ell }, C^{gg}_{\ell }$ across the scales of interest. We fit the large-scale galaxy bias at the effective redshift of the cross-correlation zeff ≈ 0.68 using two different bias evolution agnostic models: a HaloFit times linear bias model where the bias evolution is folded into the clustering-based estimation of the redshift kernel, and a Lagrangian perturbation theory model of the clustering evaluated at zeff. We also determine the error on the bias from uncertainty in the redshift distribution; within this error, the two methods show excellent agreement with each other and with DESI survey expectations.

79 ASTRONOMY AND ASTROPHYSICS↗

DOE OSTI2020

Quasi-stationary Planetary Scale Waves in Modern Climate Models

We evaluate climate model simulations of geopotential height at the largest space-time scales, considering the first Fourier components (in longitude) of long-term climatological means. Quasi-stationary planetary scale waves emerge from this analysis. Variations of these waves are important components of climate change, for example associated with regional drought. Systematic examination of their long-term climatology provides context for understanding their evolution in time. We compare four reanalysis datasets with “historical runs” from the latest version of the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project (CMIP) and find general agreement, but we also identify model errors outside the range of both observational uncertainty and the uncertainty implied by interannual variability. Errors in wave phase have possible implications for climate model projections of regional climate and of shifting weather patterns. One model in the set we examine, originally created nearly 20 years before the others, exhibits noticeably greater errors.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

NASA NTRS2012

The Operational MODIS Cloud Optical and Microphysical Property Product: Overview of the Collection 6 Algorithm and Preliminary Results

Operational Moderate Resolution Imaging Spectroradiometer (MODIS) retrievals of cloud optical and microphysical properties (part of the archived products MOD06 and MYD06, for MODIS Terra and Aqua, respectively) are currently being reprocessed along with other MODIS Atmosphere Team products. The latest "Collection 6" processing stream, which is expected to begin production by summer 2012, includes updates to the previous cloud retrieval algorithm along with new capabilities. The 1 km retrievals, based on well-known solar reflectance techniques, include cloud optical thickness, effective particle radius, and water path, as well as thermodynamic phase derived from a combination of solar and infrared tests. Being both global and of high spatial resolution requires an algorithm that is computationally efficient and can perform over all surface types. Collection 6 additions and enhancements include: (i) absolute effective particle radius retrievals derived separately from the 1.6 and 3.7 !-lm bands (instead of differences relative to the standard 2.1 !-lm retrieval), (ii) comprehensive look-up tables for cloud reflectance and emissivity (no asymptotic theory) with a wind-speed interpolated Cox-Munk BRDF for ocean surfaces, (iii) retrievals for both liquid water and ice phases for each pixel, and a subsequent determination of the phase based, in part, on effective radius retrieval outcomes for the two phases, (iv) new ice cloud radiative models using roughened particles with a specified habit, (v) updated spatially-complete global spectral surface albedo maps derived from MODIS Collection 5, (vi) enhanced pixel-level uncertainty calculations incorporating additional radiative error sources including the MODIS L1 B uncertainty index for assessing band and scene-dependent radiometric uncertainties, (v) and use of a new 1 km cloud top pressure/temperature algorithm (also part of MOD06) for atmospheric corrections and low cloud non-unity emissivity temperature adjustments.

Platnick, Steven↗

NASA NTRS2012

Comparison of Aircraft Models and Integration Schemes for Interval Management in the TRACON

Reusable models of common elements for communication, computation, decision and control in air traffic management are necessary in order to enable simulation, analysis and assurance of emergent properties, such as safety and stability, for a given operational concept. Uncertainties due to faults, such as dropped messages, along with non-linearities and sensor noise are an integral part of these models, and impact emergent system behavior. Flight control algorithms designed using a linearized version of the flight mechanics will exhibit error due to model uncertainty, and may not be stable outside a neighborhood of the given point of linearization. Moreover, the communication mechanism by which the sensed state of an aircraft is fed back to a flight control system (such as an ADS-B message) impacts the overall system behavior; both due to sensor noise as well as dropped messages (vacant samples). Additionally simulation of the flight controller system can exhibit further numerical instability, due to selection of the integration scheme and approximations made in the flight dynamics. We examine the theoretical and numerical stability of a speed controller under the Euler and Runge-Kutta schemes of integration, for the Maintain phase for a Mid-Term (2035-2045) Interval Management (IM) Operational Concept for descent and landing operations. We model uncertainties in communication due to missed ADS-B messages by vacant samples in the integration schemes, and compare the emergent behavior of the system, in terms of stability, via the boundedness of the final system state. Any bound on the errors incurred by these uncertainties will play an essential part in a composable assurance argument required for real-time, flight-deck guidance and control systems,. Thus, we believe that the creation of reusable models, which possess property guarantees, such as safety and stability, is an innovative and essential requirement to assessing the emergent properties of novel airspace concepts of operation.

Neogi, Natasha↗

NASA NTRS1996

Uncertainty Modeling for Structural Control Analysis and Synthesis

The development of an accurate model of uncertainties for the control of structures that undergo a change in operational environment, based solely on modeling and experimentation in the original environment is studied. The application used throughout this work is the development of an on-orbit uncertainty model based on ground modeling and experimentation. A ground based uncertainty model consisting of mean errors and bounds on critical structural parameters is developed. The uncertainty model is created using multiple data sets to observe all relevant uncertainties in the system. The Discrete Extended Kalman Filter is used as an identification/parameter estimation method for each data set, in addition to providing a covariance matrix which aids in the development of the uncertainty model. Once ground based modal uncertainties have been developed, they are localized to specific degrees of freedom in the form of mass and stiffness uncertainties. Two techniques are presented: a matrix method which develops the mass and stiffness uncertainties in a mathematical manner; and a sensitivity method which assumes a form for the mass and stiffness uncertainties in macroelements and scaling factors. This form allows the derivation of mass and stiffness uncertainties in a more physical manner. The mass and stiffness uncertainties of the ground based system are then mapped onto the on-orbit system, and projected to create an analogous on-orbit uncertainty model in the form of mean errors and bounds on critical parameters. The Middeck Active Control Experiment is introduced as experimental verification for the localization and projection methods developed. In addition, closed loop results from on-orbit operations of the experiment verify the use of the uncertainty model for control analysis and synthesis in space.

Campbell, Mark E.↗

NASA NTRS2022

How Well do Multisatellite Products Capture the Space-Time Dynamics of Precipitation? Part II: Building an Error Model Through Spectral System Identification

Satellite precipitation products, as all quantitative estimates, come with some inherent degree of uncertainty. To associate a quantitative value of the uncertainty to each individual estimate, error modeling is necessary. Most of the error models proposed so far compute the uncertainty as a function of precipitation intensity only, and only at one specific spatio-temporal scale. We propose a spectral error model which accounts for the neighboring space-time dynamics of precipitation into the uncertainty quantification. Systematic distortions of the precipitation signal and random errors are characterized distinctively in every frequency-wavenumber band in the Fourier domain, to accurately characterize error across scales. The systematic distortions are represented as a deterministic space-time linear filtering term. The random errors are represented as a non-stationary additive noise. The spectral error model is applied to the IMERG multi satellite precipitation product and its parameters are estimated empirically through a system identification approach using the GV-MRMS gauge-radar measurements as reference (“truth”) over the eastern United States. The filtering term is found to be essentially low-pass. While traditional error models attribute most of the error variance to random errors, it is found here that the systematic filtering term explains 48% of the error variance at the native resolution of IMERG. This fact confirms that, at high resolution, filtering effects in satellite precipitation products cannot be ignored, and that the error cannot be represented as a purely random additive or multiplicative term. An important consequence is that precipitation estimates derived from totally different sources shall not be expected to automatically have statistically independent errors.

Precipitation↗