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All sourcesNASA NTRSDOE OSTI
NASA NTRS2021

The Impacts of Climate and Wildfire on Ecosystem Gross Primary Productivity in Alaska

The increase in wildfire occurrence and severity seen over the past decades in the boreal and Arctic biomes is expected to continue in the future in response to rapid climate change in this region. Recent studies documented positive trends in gross primary productivity (GPP) for Arctic boreal biomes driven by warming, but it is unclear how GPP trends are affected by wildfires. Here, we used satellite vegetation observations and environmental data with a diagnostic GPP model to analyze recovery from large fires in Alaska over the period 2000‐2019. We confirmed earlier findings that warmer‐than‐average years provide favorable climate conditions for vegetation growth, leading to a GPP increase of 1 Tg C/yr, contributed mainly from enhanced productivity in the early growing season. However, higher temperatures increase the risk of wildfire occurrence leading to direct carbon loss over a period of 1‐3 years. While mortality related to severe wildfires reduce ecosystem productivity, post‐fire productivity in moderately burned areas shows a significant positive trend. The rapid GPP recovery following fires reported here might be favorable for maintaining the region’s net carbon sink, but wildfires can indirectly promote the release of long‐term stored carbon in the permafrost. With the projected increase in severity and frequency of wildfires in the future, we expect a reduction of GPP and therefore amplification of climate warming in this region.

Nima Madani↗
NASA NTRS2012

Dynamic Load Measurement of Ballistic Gelatin Impact Using an Instrumented Tube

Bird strikes are a common problem for the aerospace industry and can cause serious damage to an aircraft. Ballistic gelatin is frequently used as a surrogate for actual bird carcasses in bird strike tests. Numerical simulations of these tests are used to supplement experimental data, therefore it is necessary to use numerical modeling techniques that can accurately capture the dynamic response of ballistic gelatin. An experimental technique is introduced to validate these modeling techniques. A ballistic gelatin projectile is fired into a strike plate attached to a 36 in. long sensor tube. Dynamic load is measured at two locations relative to the strike plate using strain gages configured in a full Wheatstone bridge. Data from these experiments are used to validate a gelatin constitutive model. Simulations of the apparatus are analyzed to investigate its performance.

Seidt, J. D.↗
NASA NTRS2009

Hydrogen Cyanide in the Upper Troposphere: GEM-AQ Simulation and Comparison with ACE-FTS Observations

We investigate the spatial and temporal distribution of hydrogen cyanide (HCN) in the upper troposphere through numerical simulations and comparison with observations from a space-based instrument. To perform the simulations, we used the Global Environmental Multiscale Air Quality model (GEM-AQ), which is based on the threedimensional Gobal multiscale model developed by the Meteorological Service of Canada for operational weather forecasting. The model was run for the period 2004-2006 on a 1.5deg x 1.5deg global grid with 28 hybrid vertical levels from the surface up to 10 hPa. Objective analysis data from the Canadian Meteorological Centre were used to update the meteorological fields every 24 h. Fire emission fluxes of gas species were generated by using year-specific inventories of carbon emissions with 8-day temporal resolution from the Global Fire Emission Database (GFED) version 2. The model output is compared with HCN profiles measured by the Atmospheric Chemistry Experiment Fourier Transform Spectrometer (ACE-FTS) instrument onboard the Canadian SCISAT-1 satellite. High values of up to a few ppbv are observed in the tropics in the Southern Hemisphere; the enhancement in HCN volume mixing ratios in the upper troposphere is most prominent in October. Low upper-tropospheric mixing ratios of less than 100 pptv are mostly recorded at middle and high latitudes in the Southern Hemisphere in May-July. Mixing ratios in Northern Hemisphere peak in the boreal summer. The amplitude of the seasonal variation is less pronounced than in the Southern Hemisphere. The comparison with the satellite data shows that in the upper troposphere GEM-AQ perform7s well globally for all seasons, except at northern hi gh and middle latitudes in surnmer, where the model has a large negative bias, and in the tropics in winter and spring, where it exhibits large positive bias. This may reflect inaccurate emissions or possible inaccuracies in the emission profile. The model is able to explain most of the observed variability in the upper troposphere HCN field, includin g the interannual variations in the observed mixing ratio. A complementary comparison with daily total columns of HCN from two middle latitude ground-based stations in Northern Japan for the same simulation period shows that the model captures the observed seasonal variation and also points to an underestimation of model emissions in the Northern Hemisphere in the summer. The estimated average global emission equals 1.3 Tg N/yr. The average atmospheric burden is 0.53 Tg N, and the corresponding lifetime is 4.9 months.

Lupu, A.↗
NASA NTRS1991

Rainbow net analysis of VAXcluster system availability

A system modeling technique, Rainbow Nets, is used to evaluate the availability and mean-time-to-interrupt of the VAXcluster. These results are compared to the exact analytic results showing that reasonable accuracy is achieved through simulation. The complexity of the Rainbow Net does not increase as the number of processors increases, but remains constant, unlike a Markov model which expands exponentially. The constancy is achieved by using tokens with identity attributes (items) that can have additional attributes associated with them (features) which can exist in multiple states. The time to perform the simulation increases, but this is a polynomial increase rather than exponential. There is no restriction on distributions used for transition firing times, allowing real situations to be modeled more accurately by choosing the distribution which best fits the system performance and eliminating the need for simplifying assumptions.

Johnson, Allen M., Jr.↗
NASA NTRS1994

Nonequilibrium radiation and chemistry models for aerocapture vehicle flowfields

The primary accomplishments of the project were as follows: (1) From an overall standpoint, the primary accomplishment of this research was the development of a complete gasdynamic-radiatively coupled nonequilibrium viscous shock layer solution method for axisymmetric blunt bodies. This method can be used for rapid engineering modeling of nonequilibrium re-entry flowfields over a wide range of conditions. (2) Another significant accomplishment was the development of an air radiation model that included local thermodynamic nonequilibrium (LTNE) phenomena. (3) As part of this research, three electron-electronic energy models were developed. The first was a quasi-equilibrium electron (QEE) model which determined an effective free electron temperature and assumed that the electronic states were in equilibrium with the free electrons. The second was a quasi-equilibrium electron-electronic (QEEE) model which computed an effective electron-electronic temperature. The third model was a full electron-electronic (FEE) differential equation model which included convective, collisional, viscous, conductive, vibrational coupling, and chemical effects on electron-electronic energy. (4) Since vibration-dissociation coupling phenomena as well as vibrational thermal nonequilibrium phenomena are important in the nonequilibrium zone behind a shock front, a vibrational energy and vibration-dissociation coupling model was developed and included in the flowfield model. This model was a modified coupled vibrational dissociation vibrational (MCVDV) model and also included electron-vibrational coupling. (5) Another accomplishment of the project was the usage of the developed models to investigate radiative heating. (6) A multi-component diffusion model which properly models the multi-component nature of diffusion in complex gas mixtures such as air, was developed and incorporated into the blunt body model. (7) A model was developed to predict the magnitude and characteristics of the shock wave precursor ahead of vehicles entering the Earth's atmosphere. (8) Since considerable data exists for radiating nonequilibrium flow behind normal shock waves, a normal shock wave version of the blunt body code was developed. (9) By comparing predictions from the models and codes with available normal shock data and the flight data of Fire II, it is believed that the developed flowfield and nonequilibrium radiation models have been essentially validated for engineering applications.

Carlson, Leland A.↗
NASA NTRS2017

Emissions Relationships Among Western Forest Fire Plumes: I. Emission Factors Free from Mixing Errors

Previous studies of emission factors from biomass burning are prone to largeerrors since they ignore the interplay of mixing and varying pre-fire backgroundCO2 levels. Such complications severely affected our studies of 446 forest fireplume samples measured in the Western US by the science teams of NASAsSEAC4RS and ARCTAS airborne missions. Consequently we propose a MixedEffects Regression Emission Technique (MERET) to check techniques like theNormalized Emission Ratio Method (NERM), where use of sequentialobservations cannot disentangle emissions and mixing. We also evaluate asimpler consensus technique. All techniques relate emissions to fuel burnedusing C burn = Δ Ctot added to the fire plume, where ≈ Ctot (CO2 + CO). Mixed-effectsregression can estimate pre-fire background values of Ctot (indexed byobservation j) simultaneously with emissions factors indexed by individual species i, δέλτα-xi (Cburn )i,j., MERET and consensus require more than twoemissions indicators. Our studies excluded samples where exogenous CO orCH4 might have been fed into a fire plume, mimicking emission.We sought to let the data on 13 gases and particulate properties suggest clustersof variables and plume types, using non-negative matrix factorization (NMF).While samples were mixtures, the NMF unmixing suggested purer burn types.Particulate properties (bscat, babs, SSA, AÅE) and gas-phase emissions were interrelated.Finally, we sought a simple categorization useful for modeling ozone productionin plumes. Two kinds of fires produced high ozone: those with large fuel nitrogenas evidenced by remnant CH3CN in the plumes, and also those from veryintense large burns. Fire types with optimal ratios of delta-NOydelta-HCHO associate with the highest additional ozone per unit Cburn, Perhaps theseplumes exhibit limited NOx binding to reactive organics. Perhaps these plumesexhibit limited NOx binding to reactive organics.

plumes↗
NASA NTRS2016

Emissions Relationships Among Western Forest Fire Plumes: II. Plume Typing for Sources of Ozone and Aerosol Absorption

Previous studies of emission factors from biomass burning are prone to largeerrors since they ignore the interplay of mixing and varying pre-fire backgroundCO2 levels. Such complications severely affected our studies of 446 forest fireplume samples measured in the Western US by the science teams of NASAs SEAC4RS and ARCTAS airborne missions. Consequently we propose a MixedEffects Regression Emission Technique (MERET) to check techniques like theNormalized Emission Ratio Method (NERM), where use of sequentialobservations cannot disentangle emissions and mixing. We also evaluate asimpler consensus technique. All techniques relate emissions to fuel burnedusing Cburn Ctot added to the fire plume, where Ctot (CO2 + CO). Mixed-effectsregression can estimate pre-fire background values of Ctot (indexed byobservation j) simultaneously with emissions factors indexed by individualspecies i, xi (Cburn )i,j., MERET and consensus require more than twoemissions indicators. Our studies excluded samples where exogenous CO orCH4 might have been fed into a fire plume, mimicking emission.We sought to let the data on 13 gases and particulate properties suggest clustersof variables and plume types, using non-negative matrix factorization (NMF).While samples were mixtures, the NMF unmixing suggested purer burn types.Particulate properties (bscat, babs, SSA, AE) and gas-phase emissions were interrelated.Finally, we sought a simple categorization useful for modeling ozone productionin plumes. Two kinds of fires produced high ozone: those with large fuel nitrogenas evidenced by remnant CH3CN in the plumes, and also those from veryintense large burns. Fire types with optimal ratios of delta-NOydelta-HCHO associate with the highest additional ozone per unit Cburn, Perhaps theseplumes exhibit limited NOx binding to reactive organics. Perhaps these plumesexhibit limited NOx binding to reactive organics.

ozone↗
NASA NTRS2010

Transport of Cs-137 from Boreal Biomass Burning in Summer of 2010

The summer of 2010 was a severe fire season in western Russia. Wildfires were detected in the Bryansk region, raising concerns that radionuclide contamination from the Chernobyl accident could be resuspended in the atmosphere. We simulate the transport of passive and particulate tracers of biomass burning from this region using the GEOS5 GOCART model driven by assimilated meteorology. Biomass burning emissions are based on MODIS fire detections. We validate the model against aerosol optical depth from MODIS. Using a range of estimates for Cs-137 emissions during wildfires, we estimate the downwind concentration and deposition of Cs-137 based on the emission ratios of Cs-137 to the simulated tracers. We discuss the sensitivity of our results to the location of the fires and the fraction of Cs-137 resuspended.

Strode, Sarah↗
NASA NTRS2014

Wildfire Emissions and Their Interaction with Urban and Rural Pollution: Data and Simulations

In recent years NASA has conducted a series of airborne campaigns (e. g. SEAC4RS*, ARCTAS, INTEX-A/B) over North America using an instrumented DC-8 aircraft equipped to measure a very large number of gaseous and aerosol constituents including several unique tracers. In these campaigns wild fires were extensively sampled near source as well as downwind after aging. The data provided detailed information on the composition and chemistry of fire emissions under a variety of atmospheric conditions as well as their interactions with rural and urban air pollution. Major fires studied including the California Rim fire in 2013 (SEAC4RS), the 2008 California wildfires (ARCTAS), and the Alaskan fires downwind over eastern US (INTEX-A). Although some fire plumes contained virtually no O3 enhancement, others showed significant ozone formation. Over Los Angeles, the highest O3 mixing ratios were observed in fire influenced urban air masses. Attempts to simulate these interactions using state of the art models were only minimally successful and indicated several shortcomings in simulating fire emission influences on urban smog formation. A variety of secondary oxidation products (e. g. O3, PAN, HCHO) were substantially underestimated. We will discuss the data collected in fire influenced air masses and their potential air quality implications.

FIre Emissions↗
NASA NTRS1993

Comparison of cloud microphysical parameters derived from surface and satellite measurements during FIRE phase 2

Cloud microphysical properties are an important component in climate model parameterizations of water transport, cloud radiative exchange, and latent heat processes. Estimation of effective cloud particle size, liquid or ice water content, and optical depth from satellite-based instrumentation is needed to develop a climatology of cloud microphysical properties and to better understand and model cloud processes in atmospheric circulation. These parameters are estimated from two different surface data sets taken at Coffeyville, Kansas, during the First ISCCP Regional Experiment (FIRE) Phase-2 Intensive Field Observation (IFO) period (November 13 - December 7, 1991). Satellite data can also provide information about optical depth and effective particle size. This paper explores the combination of the FIRE-2 surface and satellite data to determine each of the cloud microphysical properties.

Young, David F.↗
NASA NTRS2019

Progress and Challenges in Quantifying Wildfire Smoke Emissions, Their Properties, Transport, and Atmospheric Impacts

Wildfire is a natural and integral ecosystem process that is necessary to maintain species composition, structure, and ecosystem function. Extreme fires have been increasing over the last decades, which have a substantial impact on air quality, human health, the environment, and climate systems. Smoke aerosols can be transported over large distances, acting as pollutants that affect adjacent and distant downwind communities and environments. Fire emissions are a complicated mixture of trace gases and aerosols, many of which are short‐lived and chemically reactive, and this mixture affects atmospheric composition in complex ways that are not completely understood. We present a review of the current state of knowledge of smoke aerosol emissions originating from wildfires. Satellite observations, from both passive and active instruments, are critical to providing the ability to view the large‐scale influence of fire, smoke, and their impacts. Progress in the development of fire emission estimates to regional and global chemical transport models has advanced, although significant challenges remain, such as connecting ecosystems and fuels burned with dependent atmospheric chemistry. Knowledge of the impact of smoke on radiation, clouds, and precipitation has progressed and is an essential topical research area. However, current measurements and parameterizations are not adequate to describe the impacts on clouds of smoke particles (e.g., CNN, INP) from fire emissions in the range of representative environmental conditions necessary to advance science or modeling. We conclude by providing recommendations to the community that we believe will advance the science and understanding of the impact of fire smoke emissions on human and environmental health, as well as feedback with climate system.

I N Sokolik↗
NASA NTRS2020

How emissions uncertainty influences the distribution and radiative impacts of smoke from fires in North America

Fires and the aerosols that they emit impact air quality, health, and climate, but the abundance and properties of carbonaceous aerosol (both black carbon and organic carbon) from biomass burning (BB) remain uncertain and poorly constrained. We aim to explore the uncertainties associated with fire emissions and their air quality and radiative impacts from underlying dry matter consumed and emissions factors. To investigate this, we compare model simulations from a global chemical transport model, GEOS-Chem, driven by a variety of fire emission inventories with surface and airborne observations of black carbon (BC) and organic aerosol (OA) concentrations and satellite-derived aerosol optical depth (AOD). We focus on two fire-detection-based and/or burned-area-based (FD-BA) inventories using burned area and active fire counts, respectively, i.e., the Global Fire Emissions Database version 4 (GFED4s) with small fires and the Fire INventory from NCAR version 1.5 (FINN1.5), and two fire radiative power (FRP)-based approaches, i.e., the Quick Fire Emission Dataset version 2.4 (QFED2.4) and the Global Fire Assimilation System version 1.2 (GFAS1.2). We show that, across the inventories, emissions of BB aerosol (BBA) differ by a factor of 4 to 7 over North America and that dry matter differences, not emissions factors, drive this spread. We find that simulations driven by QFED2.4 generally overestimate BC and, to a lesser extent, OA concentrations observations from two fire-influenced aircraft campaigns in North America (ARCTAS and DC3) and from the Interagency Monitoring of Protected Visual Environments (IMPROVE) network, while simulations driven by FINN1.5 substantially underestimate concentrations. The GFED4s and GFAS1.2-driven simulations provide the best agreement with OA and BC mass concentrations at the surface (IMPROVE), BC observed aloft (DC3 and ARCTAS), and AOD observed by MODIS over North America. We also show that a sensitivity simulation including an enhanced source of secondary organic aerosol (SOA) from fires, based on the NOAA Fire Lab 2016 experiments, produces substantial additional OA; however, the spread in the primary emissions estimates implies that this magnitude of SOA can be neither confirmed nor ruled out when comparing the simulations against the observations explored here. Given the substantial uncertainty in fire emissions, as represented by these four emission inventories, we find a sizeable range in 2012 annual BBA PM2.5 population-weighted exposure over Canada and the contiguous US (0.5 to 1.6 µg/cu. m). We also show that the range in the estimated global direct radiative effect of carbonaceous aerosol from fires (−0.11 to −0.048 W/sq. m) is large and comparable to the direct radiative forcing of OA (−0.09 W/sq. m) estimated in the Fifth Assessment Report (AR5) of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC). Our analysis suggests that fire emissions uncertainty challenges our ability to accurately characterize the impact of smoke on air quality and climate.

North America↗
NASA NTRS1993

Investigation of the effects of the macrophysical and microphysical properties of cirrus clouds on the retrieval of optical properties: Results for FIRE 2

Due to the prevalence and persistence of cirrus cloudiness across the globe, cirrus clouds are believed to have an important effect on the climate. Stephens et al., (1990) among others have shown that the important factor determining how cirrus clouds modulate the climate is the balance between the albedo and emittance effect of the cloud systems. This factor was shown to depend in part upon the effective sizes of the cirrus cloud particles. Since effective sizes of cirrus cloud microphysical distributions are used as a basis of parameterizations in climate models, it is crucial that the relationships between effective sizes and radiative properties be clearly established. In this preliminary study, the retrieval of cirrus cloud effective sizes are examined using a two dimensional radiative transfer model for a cirrus cloud case sampled during FIRE Cirrus 11. The purpose of this paper is to present preliminary results from the SHSG model demonstrating the sensitivity of the bispectral relationships of reflected radiances and thus the retrieval of effective sizes to phase function and dimensionality.

Stackhouse, Paul W., Jr.↗
NASA NTRS2012

Assessing the Association Between Asthma and Air Quality in the Presence of Wildfires

Asthma hospital/emergency room (patient) data are used as the foundation for creating a health outcome indicator of human response to environmental air quality. Daily U.S. Environmental Protection Agency (EPA) Air Quality System (AQS) fine particulates (PM2.5) ground data and the U.S. National Aeronautical Space Administration (NASA) MODIS aerosol optical depth (AOD) data were acquired and processed for years of 2007 and 2008. Figure 1 shows the PM2.5 annual mean composite of all the 2007 B-spline daily surfaces. Initial models for predicting the number of weekly asthma cases within a Florida county has focused on environmental variables. Weekly maximums of PM2.5, relative humidity, and the proportions of the county with smoke and fire were the environmental variables included in the model. Cosine and sine functions of time were used to account for seasonality in asthma cases. Counties were considered to be random effects, thereby adjusting for differences in socio ]demographics and other factors. The 2007 predictions for Miami ]Dade county when using B ]splines PM2.5 are displayed in Figures 2.

Young, L. J.↗
NASA NTRS2001

Thermal Fault Tolerance Analysis of Carbon Fiber Rope Barrier Systems for Use in the Reusable Solid Rocket Motor ( RSRM) Nozzle Joints

Carbon Fiber Rope (CFR) thermal barrier systems are being considered for use in several RSRM (Reusable Solid Rocket Motor) nozzle joints as a replacement for the current assembly gap close-out process/design. This study provides for development and test verification of analysis methods used for flow-thermal modeling of a CFR thermal barrier subject to fault conditions such as rope combustion gas blow-by and CFR splice failure. Global model development is based on a 1-D (one dimensional) transient volume filling approach where the flow conditions are calculated as a function of internal 'pipe' and porous media 'Darcy' flow correlations. Combustion gas flow rates are calculated for the CFR on a per-linear inch basis and solved simultaneously with a detailed thermal-gas dynamic model of a local region of gas blow by (or splice fault). Effects of gas compressibility, friction and heat transfer are accounted for the model. Computational Fluid Dynamic (CFD) solutions of the fault regions are used to characterize the local flow field, quantify the amount of free jet spreading and assist in the determination of impingement film coefficients on the nozzle housings. Gas to wall heat transfer is simulated by a large thermal finite element grid of the local structure. The employed numerical technique loosely couples the FE (Finite Element) solution with the gas dynamics solution of the faulted region. All free constants that appear in the governing equations are calibrated by hot fire sub-scale test. The calibrated model is used to make flight predictions using motor aft end environments and timelines. Model results indicate that CFR barrier systems provide a near 'vented joint' style of pressurization. Hypothetical fault conditions considered in this study (blow by, splice defect) are relatively benign in terms of overall heating to nozzle metal housing structures.

Clayton, J. Louie↗
NASA NTRSDate not supplied

Additive Manufacturing (AM) for Propulsion Component and System Applications

NASA MSFC is developing several areas of additive manufacturing (AM) for propulsion component and system applications. These developments include new AM process and material development, large-scale AM pathfinder component fabrication and hot-fire testing, AM-centric design methodology, modeling and simulation, post-processing advancements, and new design applications of AM in aerospace. Some specific areas NASA has focused is the development and commercial infusion of AM supply chain for materials such as copper-alloy GRCop (Cu-Cr-Nb), Hydrogen-resistant alloys (NASA HR-1, JBK-75), refractory-based alloys (C-103, W, Mo, new formulations), and bimetallic and multi-metallic AM processes. Additional efforts have been focused on large scale AM demonstrating complex thin-wall structures up to 60” diameter using directed energy deposition. Material characterization, properties and component hot-fire testing has been completed using many of these newly developed AM alloys/processes. NASA has also focused on improvements to post-processing including powder removal, surface enhancements, and support removal to further realize cost and schedule benefits to the overall supply chain. These developments are part of the NASA Rapid Analysis and Manufacturing Propulsion Technology (RAMPT), Low Cost Upper Stage Propulsion (LCUSP) and Long Life Additive Manufacturing (LLAMA) projects, in addition to internal IRAD, and external collaborations.

Additive Manufacturing↗
NASA NTRS2021

Ecosystem age-class dynamics and distribution in the LPJ-wsl v2.0 global ecosystem model

Forest ecosystem processes follow classic responses with age, peaking production around canopy closure and declining thereafter. Although age dynamics might be more dominant in certain regions over others, demographic effects on net primary production (NPP) and heterotrophic respiration (Rh) are bound to exist. Yet, explicit representation of ecosystem demography is notably absent in many global ecosystem models. This is concerning because the global community relies on these models to regularly update our collective understanding of the global carbon cycle. This paper aims to present the technical developments of a computationally efficient approach for representing age-class dynamics within a global ecosystem model, the Lund–Potsdam–Jena – Wald, Schnee, Landschaft version 2.0 (LPJ-wsl v2.0) dynamic global vegetation model and to determine if explicit representation of demography influenced ecosystem stocks and fluxes at global scales or at the level of a grid cell. The modeled age classes are initially created by simulated fire and prescribed wood harvesting or abandonment of managed land, otherwise aging naturally until an additional disturbance is simulated or prescribed. In this paper, we show that the age module can capture classic demographic patterns in stem density and tree height compared to inventory data, and that simulated patterns of ecosystem function follow classic responses with age. We also present two scientific applications of the model to assess the modeled age-class distribution over time and to determine the demographic effect on ecosystem fluxes relative to climate. Simulations show that, between 1860 and 2016, zonal age distribution on Earth was driven predominately by fire, causing a 45- to 60-year difference in ages between older boreal (50–90° N) and younger tropical (23° S–23° N) ecosystems. Between simulation years 1860 and 2016, land-use change and land management were responsible for a decrease in zonal age by −6 years in boreal and by −21 years in both temperate (23–50° N) and tropical latitudes, with the anthropogenic effect on zonal age distribution increasing over time. A statistical model helped to reduce LPJ-wsl v2.0 complexity by predicting per-grid-cell annual NPP and Rh fluxes by three terms: precipitation, temperature, and age class; at global scales, R2 was between 0.95 and 0.98. As determined by the statistical model, the demographic effect on ecosystem function was often less than 0.10 kg C/sq. myr but as high as 0.60 kg C/sq. myr where the effect was greatest. In the eastern forests of North America, the simulated demographic effect was of similar magnitude, or greater than, the effects of climate; simulated demographic effects were similarly important in large regions of every vegetated continent. Simulated spatial datasets are provided for global ecosystem ages and the estimated coefficients for effects of precipitation, temperature and demography on ecosystem function. The discussion focuses on our finding of an increasing role of demography in the global carbon cycle, the effect of demography on relaxation times (resilience) following a disturbance event and its implications at global scales, and a finding of a 40 Pg C increase in biomass turnover when including age dynamics at global scales. Whereas time is the only mechanism that increases ecosystem age, any additional disturbance not explicitly modeled will decrease age. The LPJ-wsl v2.0 age module represents another step forward towards understanding the role of demography in global ecosystems.

LPJ-wsl↗
NASA NTRS2014

Sensitivity of Mesoscale Modeling of Smoke Direct Radiative Effect to the Emission Inventory: a Case Study in Northern Sub-Saharan African Region

An ensemble approach is used to examine the sensitivity of smoke loading and smoke direct radiative effect in the atmosphere to uncertainties in smoke emission estimates. Seven different fire emission inventories are applied independently to WRF-Chem model (v3.5) with the same model configuration (excluding dust and other emission sources) over the northern sub-Saharan African (NSSA) biomass-burning region. Results for November and February 2010 are analyzed, respectively representing the start and end of the biomass burning season in the study region. For February 2010, estimates of total smoke emission vary by a factor of 12, but only differences by factors of 7 or less are found in the simulated regional (15degW-42degE, 13degS-17degN) and monthly averages of column PM(sub 2.5) loading, surface PM(sub 2.5) concentration, aerosol optical depth (AOD), smoke radiative forcing at the top-of-atmosphere and at the surface, and air temperature at 2 m and at 700 hPa. The smaller differences in these simulated variables may reflect the atmospheric diffusion and deposition effects to dampen the large difference in smoke emissions that are highly concentrated in areas much smaller than the regional domain of the study. Indeed, at the local scale, large differences (up to a factor of 33) persist in simulated smoke-related variables and radiative effects including semi-direct effect. Similar results are also found for November 2010, despite differences in meteorology and fire activity. Hence, biomass burning emission uncertainties have a large influence on the reliability of model simulations of atmospheric aerosol loading, transport, and radiative impacts, and this influence is largest at local and hourly-to-daily scales. Accurate quantification of smoke effects on regional climate and air quality requires further reduction of emission uncertainties, particularly for regions of high fire concentrations such as NSSA.

Sahel and sub-Saharan African region↗