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At least 325 records · Page 18

EXODUS: Integrating intelligent systems for launch operations support

Kennedy Space Center (KSC) is developing knowledge-based systems to automate critical operations functions for the space shuttle fleet. Intelligent systems will monitor vehicle and ground support subsystems for anomalies, assist in isolating and managing faults, and plan and schedule shuttle operations activities. These applications are being developed independently of one another, using different representation schemes, reasoning and control models, and hardware platforms. KSC has recently initiated the EXODUS project to integrate these stand alone applications into a unified, coordinated intelligent operations support system. EXODUS will be constructed using SOCIAL, a tool for developing distributed intelligent systems. EXODUS, SOCIAL, and initial prototyping efforts using SOCIAL to integrate and coordinate selected EXODUS applications are described.

Adler, Richard M.↗

Demonstration of Four Operating Capabilities to Enable a Small Aircraft Transportation System

The Small Aircraft Transportation System (SATS) project has been a five-year effort fostering research and development that could lead to the transformation of our country s air transportation system. It has become evident that our commercial air transportation system is reaching its peak in terms of capacity, with numerous delays in the system and the demand keeps steadily increasing. The SATS vision is to increase mobility in our nation s transportation system by expanding access to more than 3400 small community airports that are currently under-utilized. The SATS project has focused its efforts on four key operating capabilities that have addressed new emerging technologies and procedures to pave the way for a new way of air travel. The four key operating capabilities are: Higher Volume Operations at Non-Towered/Non-Radar Airports, En Route Procedures and Systems for Integrated Fleet Operations, Lower Landing Minimums at Minimally Equipped Landing Facilities, and Increased Single Pilot Performance. These four capabilities are key to enabling low-cost, on-demand, point-to-point transportation of goods and passengers utilizing small aircraft operating from small airports. The focus of this paper is to discuss the technical and operational feasibility of the four operating capabilities and demonstrate how they can enable a small aircraft transportation system.

Viken, Sally A.↗

Light Absorption of Stratospheric Aerosols: Long-Term Trend and Contribution by Aircraft

Measurements of aerosol light-absorption coefficients are useful for studies of radiative transfer and heating rates. Ogren appears to have published the first light- absorption coefficients in the stratosphere in 1981, followed by Clarke in 1983 and Pueschel in 1992. Because most stratospheric soot appears to be due to aircraft operations, application of an aircraft soot aerosol emission index to projected fuel consumption suggests a threefold increase of soot loading and light absorption by 2025. Together, those four data sets indicate an increase in mid-visible light extinction at a rate of 6 % per year. This trend is similar to the increase per year of sulfuric acid aerosol and of commercial fleet size. The proportionality between stepped-up aircraft operations above the tropopause and increases in stratospheric soot and sulfuric acid aerosol implicate aircraft as a source of stratospheric pollution. Because the strongly light-absorbing soot and the predominantly light-scattering sulfuric acid aerosol increase at similar rates, however, the mid-visible stratospheric aerosol single scatter albedo is expected to remain constant and not approach a critical value of 0.98 at which stratospheric cooling could change to warming.

Pueschel , R. F.↗

Enabling Earth Science Measurements with NASA UAS Capabilites

NASA's Airborne Science Program (ASP) maintains a fleet of manned and unmanned aircraft for Earth Science measurements and observations. The unmanned aircraft systems (UAS) range in size from very large (Global Hawks) to medium (SIERRA, Viking) and relatively small (DragonEye). UAS fly from very low (boundary layer) to very high altitude (stratosphere). NASA also supports science and applied science projects using UAS operated by outside companies or agencies. The aircraft and accompanying data and support systems have been used in numerous investigations. For example, Global Hawks have been used to study both hurricanes and atmospheric composition. SIERRA has been used to study ice, earthquake faults, and coral reefs. DragonEye is being used to measure volcanic emissions. As a foundation for NASA's UAS work, Altair and Ikkana not only flew wildfires in the Western US, but also provided major programs for the development of real-time data download and processing capabilities. In early 2014, an advanced L-band Synthetic Aperture Radar (SAR) also flew for the first time on Global Hawk, proving the utility of UAVSAR, which has been flying successfully on a manned aircraft. In this paper, we focus on two topics: 1) the results of a NASA program called UAS-Enabled Earth Science, in which three different science teams flew (at least) two different UAS to demonstrate platform performance, airspace integration, sensor performance, and applied science results from the data collected; 2) recent accomplishments with the high altitude, long-duration Global Hawks, especially measurements from several payload suites consisting of multiple instruments. The latest upgrades to data processing, communications, tracking and flight planning systems will also be described.

Earth Science↗

Projecting California Light-Duty Vehicle Attributes (2019-2035)

In this report, we estimated a set of future vehicle attribute scenarios for new light-duty vehicles for the California market using the Automotive Deployment Options Projection Tool (ADOPT). ADOPT starts simulations with all existing vehicle makes and models and endogenously creates new vehicle models over time based on assumed technology improvements and market conditions. For this study, we simulated four scenarios with varied technology, policy, and electric vehicle infrastructure assumptions. We aggregated simulation results into up to 30 vehicle classes (covering size and price classifications) for each powertrain, for six powertrains. We simulated model years 2019 to 2035. We present results for four vehicle attributes: vehicle acceleration, fuel economy (including electric and gasoline for plug-in hybrid electric vehicles [PHEVs]), vehicle range, and vehicle purchase price. We also present results showing the estimated number of vehicle models available in each vehicle class over time. In the Mid scenario, which contains conditions between our most conservative and most optimistic assumptions for emerging electric and hydrogen technologies, we observe improvements in acceleration, range (for battery-electric vehicles [BEVs]), and vehicle purchase price for electric and hydrogen powertrains. In some cases, we project that consumer preferences lead to trade-offs between vehicle attributes, such as reduced fuel economy in exchange for improved acceleration. Conventional vehicles show modest improvements in fuel economy in these scenarios due to the high numbers of BEV and PHEV sales, which reduce the improvements required in conventional vehicles to meet fleet fuel economy standards. In scenarios with advanced technology assumptions (including reduced battery price and improved energy density), we observe further improvements in BEV range and price relative to the improvements in the Mid scenario.

33 ADVANCED PROPULSION SYSTEMS↗

Automating Trend Analysis for Spacecraft Constellations

Spacecraft trend analysis is a vital mission operations function performed by satellite controllers and engineers, who perform detailed analyses of engineering telemetry data to diagnose subsystem faults and to detect trends that may potentially lead to degraded subsystem performance or failure in the future. It is this latter function that is of greatest importance, for careful trending can often predict or detect events that may lead to a spacecraft's entry into safe-hold. Early prediction and detection of such events could result in the avoidance of, or rapid return to service from, spacecraft safing, which not only results in reduced recovery costs but also in a higher overall level of service for the satellite system. Contemporary spacecraft trending activities are manually intensive and are primarily performed diagnostically after a fault occurs, rather than proactively to predict its occurrence. They also tend to rely on information systems and software that are oudated when compared to current technologies. When coupled with the fact that flight operations teams often have limited resources, proactive trending opportunities are limited, and detailed trend analysis is often reserved for critical responses to safe holds or other on-orbit events such as maneuvers. While the contemporary trend analysis approach has sufficed for current single-spacecraft operations, it will be unfeasible for NASA's planned and proposed space science constellations. Missions such as the Dynamics, Reconnection and Configuration Observatory (DRACO), for example, are planning to launch as many as 100 'nanospacecraft' to form a homogenous constellation. A simple extrapolation of resources and manpower based on single-spacecraft operations suggests that trending for such a large spacecraft fleet will be unmanageable, unwieldy, and cost-prohibitive. It is therefore imperative that an approach to automating the spacecraft trend analysis function be studied, developed, and applied to missions such as DRACO with the intent that mission operations costs be significantly reduced. The goal of the Constellation Spacecraft Trend Analysis Toolkit (CSTAT) project is to serve as the pathfinder for a fully automated trending system to support spacecraft constellations. The development approach to be taken is evolutionary. In the first year of the project, the intent is to significantly advance the state of the art in current trending systems through improved functionality and increased automation. In the second year, the intent is to add an expert system shell, likely through the adaptation of an existing commercial-off-the-shelf (COTS) or government-off-the-shelf (GOTS) tool to implement some level of the trending intelligence that humans currently provide in manual operations. In the third year, the intent is to infuse the resulting technology into a near-term constellation or formation-flying mission to test it and gain experience in automated trending. The lessons learned from the real missions operations experience will then be used to improve the system, and to ultimately incorporate it into a fully autonomous, closed-loop mission operations system that is truly capable of supporting large constellations. In this paper, the process of automating trend analysis for spacecraft constellations will be addressed. First, the results of a survey on automation in spacecraft mission operations in general, and in trending systems in particular will be presented to provide an overview of the current state of the art. Next, a rule-based model for implementing intelligent spacecraft subsystem trending will be then presented, followed by a survey of existing COTS/GOTS tools that could be adapted for implementing such a model. The baseline design and architecture of the CSTAT system will be presented. Finally, some results obtained from initial software tests and demonstrations will be presented.

Davis, George↗

Ship Design

Guided missile cruiser equipped with advanced Aegis fleet defense system which automatically tracks hundreds of attacking aircraft or missiles, then fires and guides the ship's own weapons in response. Designed by Ingalls Shipbuilding for the US Navy, the U.S.S. Ticonderoga is the first of four CG-47 cruisers to be constructed. NASTRAN program was used previously in another Navy/Ingalls project involving design and construction of four DDG-993 Kidd Class guided missile destroyers.

Source record↗

Meta-Analysis of Advanced Nuclear Reactor Cost Estimations

Supporting Data can be downloaded at: https://gain.inl.gov/content/uploads/4/2024/06/INL-RPT-24-77048-R1.xlsx Nuclear energy is a critical cornerstone of the current United States clean energy supply and may play a larger role in the future in support of a transition to a net-zero economy. The current fleet of nuclear reactors predominantly consists of large light-water reactors (LWRs), while many of the reactor designs under consideration are smaller and/or different technologies. Because these new designs have not yet been built, there is a high degree of uncertainty associated with their cost. This complicates energy-planning efforts because cost projections are not always standardized, consistent, and centralized in an easily accessible location. To help support energy planning in the US, this report provides advanced nuclear cost ranges using a transparent methodology along with other relevant information that can be used to help support decision making and energy planning. The purpose of this work was to conduct a methodical process for cost evaluation using only public information that was vetted with the end-goal to provide reference cost projections for nuclear energy. To provide a solid basis for these values, the approach and assumptions are explicitly laid out throughout the report allowing any user of the data to challenge or reconsider them. Because future US nuclear-reactor costs are still unknown due to little recent observed data, the report opted to compile a comprehensive list of bottom-up estimates and evaluate averages/trends within the data to identify reference ranges. This was deemed preferable to opining on the robustness or validity of one cost estimation versus another. To that end, the work evaluated thousands of lines of cost subaccounts from several bottom-up cost estimates. A wide variety of different reactor types captured in the data are of various sizes and technologies. Some of these reactors will be representative of advanced reactors under development while others will not. Thus, the results here are dependent on the data that are available and the accuracy of the estimates that are used. Each bottom-up estimate was reviewed to determine whether it was complete. Incomplete data sets were corrected to ensure an adequate basis of cross-comparison. The report is not without limitations and should be interpreted as an initial step to develop cost ranges for nuclear technology. Ultimately, future work can build upon the methodology with refined cost estimates to reduce uncertainty. US-based overnight capital cost (OCC) estimates were compiled from extensive data sets into ranges for both large and small reactor sizes for 2030. To project the cost declines over time, learning rates were sampled from literature sources. No SMRs were previously built; hence, learning rates based on bottom-up approaches (e.g., by quantifying the impact stemming from fabrication of different components, modular work, site construction, commissioning) were prioritized. For larger reactors, actual learning rates from deployments were used to project future costs (adjusted to account for standardization or lack thereof between designs). Other costs included are fixed and variable operations and maintenance costs. The final variables were capacity factors and ramp rates to support energy planning.

22 GENERAL STUDIES OF NUCLEAR REACTORS↗

EVI-LOCATE User Manual

One of the longest stages in the deployment of electric vehicle supply equipment (EVSE) is the initial planning of the infrastructure itself. Engineers and fleet experts from the National Renewable Energy Laboratory (NREL) have supported dozens of charging infrastructure site plans over the past couple decades, including the generation of site schematics, determinations of electric capacity, and estimates for likely costs. As the market for electric vehicles (EVs) has matured, this approach should no longer require a time and personnel intensive process. In order to shorten the time taken to develop site plans and cost estimates, NREL developed a tool that fleet managers, facility managers, electricians, EVSE installers, and members of the public can use to develop initial schematics and ballpark pricing for charging station installations. The Electric Vehicle Infrastructure - Locally Optimized Charger Assessment Tool and Estimator (EVI-LOCATE) provides a structured and consistent way for users to enter information about their planned EVSE project in a relatively simple web-based format. EVI-LOCATE then calculates electrical equipment capacity, wiring runs, and project costs. It produces a site diagram optimized around surface characteristics with differential trenching costs for softscape such as grass compared to hardscape such as asphalt that can be adjusted by users in the tool. It also stores the resulting site plans and costs in a dashboard for access at a later date, including plan revisions if necessary. This document guides users through the EVI-LOCATE screens and associated questions. It contains tip text boxes throughout on how best to interface with the tool and find additional information or context. The appendices contain the assumptions and calculations underpinning the tool. Much of the information for EVI-LOCATE was gathered through industry engagements with EVSE installers, invoices from completed EVSE installations, Gordian's RS Means construction data, and the General Services Administration blanket purchase agreement for EVSE. For a visual tutorial of the tool, users can watch EVI-LOCATE Step-by-Step Video. The tool itself is available at https://evi-locate.nrel.gov.

29 ENERGY PLANNING, POLICY, AND ECONOMY↗

TPSAS-NF1676L-14659-DND

Subsonic fixed wing aircraft dominant the world's air fleet and move people and goods on 24/7 basis. While air travel is an effective, efficient means of transportation providing an unmatched combination of speed and range, future subsonic aircraft must continue to improve substantially to meet energy efficiency and environmental compatibility goals. The NASA Fundamental Aeronautics Program via the Subsonic Fixed Wing (SFW) Project addresses the comprehensive challenge of enabling revolutionary energy-efficiency improvements in subsonic transport aircraft combined with dramatic reductions in harmful emissions and perceived noise to facilitate sustained growth of the air transportation system. Advanced technologies and the development of unconventional aircraft systems offer the potential to achieve these improvements. Multidisciplinary advances are required in aerodynamic efficiency to reduce drag, structural efficiency to reduce aircraft empty weight, and propulsive and thermal efficiency to reduce thrust-specific energy consumption (TSEC) for overall system benefit. Additionally, advances are required to reduce perceived noise without adversely affecting drag, weight, or TSEC and to reduce harmful emissions without adversely affecting energy efficiency or noise. The primary focus of SFW is on the "N+3" generation; that is, vehicles that are three generations beyond the current state of the art, requiring mature technology solutions in the 2025-30 timeframe. Success in overcoming these technical challenges will result in major changes to engine cycle and airframe configurations, which in turn will broaden the technology trade space for vehicles ranging from large transports to very light jets. This presentation provides an overview of SFW-sponsored research targeted at improved aerodynamic and structural efficiency for airframe and integrated vehicle systems.

Richard A Wahls↗

EV Champion Training Webinar 2: ZEV and EV Charging Planning [Slides]

The Electric Vehicle (EV) Champion Training Series, hosted by the National Renewable Energy Laboratory (NREL), is tailored for fleet managers, facility managers, and other stakeholders involved in the deployment of EVs and charging stations. This series equips participants with the skills and knowledge necessary to become subject matter experts in EV implementation. This is the second training in a four-part series and serves as an intermediate training. This training covers the first four steps in the ZEV Ready Center process, including how to identify and train your zero-emission vehicle (ZEV) team, align headquarters strategy with site-level planning, identify ZEV opportunities, and identify charging needs for your project sites. Participants will gain a solid foundation to support the effective deployment and management of EVs and their infrastructure.

33 ADVANCED PROPULSION SYSTEMS↗

LOCOMOTIVES - Comprehensive Impact and Cost Assessment Framework of Carbon Lowering Approaches for the US Rail Freight System

The goal of this project is to develop a tool to aid railroads and other stakeholders assess and approach the decarbonization of freight rail operations by identifying new, viable low-carbon energy storage and conversion systems for future locomotive systems and how they should be deployed on the existing US freight rail network. In the first quarter, the project focused on collecting data, establishing a simulation workflow, and engaging industry through the creation of the Industry Advisory Board (IAB). In the second quarter, the project focused on selecting fuel pathways and powertrain technologies, setting performance targets, conducting a techno-economic analyses, and developing the simulation framework that would serve as the backbone of the future toolhead. The third quarter involved developing an industry-oriented interactive dashboard powered by a five-step sequential framework, as well as holding industry advisory board meetings as per the initial technology-to-market plan. In the remaining project quarters, the NUFRIEND dashboard were fine-tuned with the help of IAB member feedback and in-depth scenario analyses were conducted to support the techno-economic analysis of energy sources. Additionally, dashboard documentation, project insights, and open-source code on GitHub were prepared and released. Throughout the project, the team completed testing and analysis of all model components, integrated all initial test scenarios, and conducted stakeholder engagement. Lower-carbon drop-in fuels can be deployed as admixtures and are considered uniform across the network at a desired penetration rate, while hydrogen and battery-electric technology deployment poses a more complex problem as they require significant investments to be made in the siting of refueling/charging facilities and the replacement of locomotive fleets. Thus, strategies for locating and sizing refueling/charging facilities on a railroad’s network to meet their energy demands were developed to inform deployment decisions. To address this challenge, the Northwestern University Freight Rail Infrastructure & Energy Network Decarbonization (NUFRIEND) framework presents a five-step sequential framework to select O-D paths, locate facilities, reroute flows, size facilities, and evaluate the deployment for alternative energy sources that require locomotive powertrains to be converted and new refueling infrastructure to be deployed. The NUFRIEND Framework is an industry-oriented tool for simulating the deployment of new energy technologies across the US freight rail network. The framework provides a comprehensive network-level optimization and scenario simulation tool for decarbonizing the freight rail sector, addressing the uncertainties surrounding technological developments by supporting sensitivity analyses for different operational and technological parameters through a transparent and flexible input module. It offers practical alternatives to diesel locomotives and can be applied for any railroad considering the specific network structure and freight demand, outputting evaluation metrics for the associated emissions and costs relative to diesel operations. A number of relevant simulation scenarios were run and analyzed for key insights on the value of different alternative technologies for freight rail decarbonization. The project developments and findings have been presented at numerous conferences and events.

08 HYDROGEN↗

Demonstration of Electrolyzer Operation at a Nuclear Plant to Allow for Dynamic Participation in an Organized Electricity Market and In-House Hydrogen Supply

This document details the execution of Cooperative Agreement DE-EE0008849, “demonstration of electrolyzer operation at a nuclear plant to allow for dynamic participation in an organized electricity market and in-house hydrogen supply” during the performance period of 10/1/2019 – 9/30/2024. The project was funded by the U.S. Department of Energy’s Office of Energy Efficiency and Renewable Energy (EERE). Constellation Energy Generation, LLC (formerly Exelon Generation Company, LLC) is the prime recipient of the award. Other members of the project team are INL, NREL, ANL and Nel Hydrogen. The main project objective was to demonstrate an end-to-end integrated grid-scale carbon-free H 2 production, storage and utilization pilot plant at a nuclear generating facility. The project also aimed to evaluate market opportunities and regulatory requirements related to the participation of integrated hydrogen production and nuclear plant facilities in organized power markets, by demonstrating dynamic control and operation of the electrolyzer and assessing the economics of dynamic participation combined with the revenue streams from hydrogen production. On March 7th , 2023 Constellation started hydrogen production at it’s Nine Mile Point Nuclear Plant in Oswego, New York. The PEM electrolyzer operating at Nine Mile Point uses 1.25 megawatt of nuclear electricity to produce 560 kilograms of clean hydrogen per day, more than enough to meet the plant’s operational hydrogen use. It will also help set the stage for possible large-scale deployments at other clean energy centers in Constellation’s fleet that would couple clean hydrogen production with storage and other on-site uses. Employing the lessons learned from the 1.25 MW demonstration-scale, nuclear-powered clean hydrogen production facility at Nine Mile Point, Constellation was a major participant in the MachH2 hydrogen hub recently selected for up to $\$$1 billion by the Department of Energy (DOE) as part of the bipartisan Infrastructure Investment and Jobs Act. Constellation will use a portion of the hub funding to build the world’s largest nuclear-powered clean hydrogen production facility at its LaSalle Clean Energy Center in Illinois. The project was featured in a number of news articles and press releases and received 2 awards. At the 2023 DOE HFTO’s Annual Merit Review meeting, the P.I. Dr. Uuganbayar Otgonbaatar and project manager Robert Beaumont were recognized for “outstanding achievements in the development and demonstration of a first-of-a-kind clean hydrogen production facility, powered by carbon-free nuclear energy, at the Nine Mile Point Nuclear Station in Oswego, New York.” The project was also awarded 2023 Nuclear Energy Institute’s Top Innovative Practice award.

08 HYDROGEN↗

EVSE Characterization: V2G EVSE Comparison

As part of the U.S. Department of Energy EVs@Scale consortium Next-Generation Profiles project, results and analysis from the characterization of high-power conductive and wireless charging infrastructure are presented. This characterization is conducted over a wide range of direct current (DC) current and DC voltage operation for nominal test conditions and off-nominal test conditions. Test plans and procedures were developed to define the test configurations and requirements, measurement parameters, and test procedures used throughout testing. Results from a 2024 study conducted on electric vehicle supply equipment (EVSE) characterization by the Idaho National Laboratory (INL) include two bi-directional vehicle-to-grid (V2G) capable EVSEs. These EVSE are referred to as V2G-EVSE9 and V2G-EVSE10. Laboratory testing is conducted at nominal test conditions to characterize the power transfer capabilities, efficiency, power factor, and other power quality metrics of the two DC EVSEs capable of V2G bi-directional power transfer. Results from testing show the performance is consistent for V2G-EVSE9 and V2G-EVSE10 when comparing charging to discharging performance, except for V2G-EVSE10 for power transfer when operating above 70% of the rated DC current. V2G-EVSE10 efficiency is >98% while charging and <91% while discharging at the same operating conditions, near maximum-rated current, at 300VDC. In contrast, V2G-EVSE9 results are consistent for charging and discharging. This EVSE is nearly 96% efficient while charging or discharging when operating over 50% of rated AC power. V2G EVSE performance is also characterized during off-nominal AC grid conditions involving AC voltage deviation (426 VAC to 518 VAC), AC frequency deviation of +2% (58.8 Hz to 61.2 Hz), and AC voltage harmonics injection. Many test conditions have little-to-no impact on performance characteristics of the two EVSEs; however, there are a few notable findings with significant power transfer capability impacts. AC voltage harmonics injection resulted in negative impacts on power quality attributes for both EVSEs, but with no impact on power transfer capability. Off-nominal AC voltage and frequency conditions resulted in unstable or lack of power transfer capability for both EVSEs. V2G-EVSE9 is unable to transfer power when AC voltage is >300V L-N. V2G-EVSE10 is unable to transfer power when AC frequency deviation exceeds +0.8%. V2G energy management system transient response and latency are quantified during laboratory testing. V2G-EVSE9 and V2G-EVSE10 utilize cloud-based V2G energy management systems that command the power transfer level between the EVSE and EV. The latency and response characteristics of the entire systems (web-based user interface, V2G energy management system, cellular communications, and EVSE response) are quantified through laboratory testing for V2G-EVSE9 and V2G-EVSE10. V2G-EVSE9 latency ranges from 0.8 to 1.8 seconds, whereas V2G-EVSE10 latency ranges from 3.4 to 8.8 seconds. The ramp rate to a change in power transfer request also differs between the two EVSEs. V2G-EVSE10 ramp rate ranges from 50% to -250% of rated AC power per second, whereas V2G-EVSE9 rate ranges from 95% to -95% of rated AC power per second. At the highest rate of change in power transfer, V2G-EVSE10 can change from full charge power to full discharge power in less than one second. The V2G EVSE characterization presented in this report provides valuable insights and results for use by numerous entities. This includes modeling and simulation organizations, decision makers, fleet planning, industry stakeholders, and many others involved with the development and deployment of electrified transportation technologies. Additional high-power DC chargers, bidirectional chargers, and inductive power transfer EVSE characterization results are anticipated from additional EVSE brands and models, which will be detailed in future publications in support of the U.S. Department of Energy EVs@Scale consortium Next-Gen Profiles project.

25 ENERGY STORAGE↗

Halfway to Zero: Progress towards a Carbon-Free Power Sector

Sharply reducing carbon emissions is imperative to prevent the worst effects of climate change. Yet even in the power sector—often viewed as the lynchpin to economy-wide decarbonization, and where low-carbon solutions are increasingly plentiful and cost-effective—the pace and scale of the required transformation can be daunting. A review of historical trends, however, shows the progress the power sector has already made in reducing emissions. Fifteen years ago, many business-as-usual projections anticipated that annual carbon dioxide (CO 2 ) emissions from power supply in the United States would reach 3,000 million metric tons (MMT) in 2020. In fact, direct power-sector CO 2 emissions in 2020 were 1,450 MMT—roughly 50% below the earlier projections. By this metric, in only 15 years the country’s power sector has gone halfway to zero emissions. Other metrics also evolved differently than projected: total consumer electricity costs (i.e., bills) were 18% lower; costs to human health and the climate were 92% and 52% lower, respectively; and the number of jobs in electricity generation was 29% higher. Economic, technical, and policy factors contributed to this success, including sectoral changes, energy efficiency, wind and solar, continued operations of the nuclear fleet, and coal-to-gas fuel switching. This historical record demonstrates the ability of technological and policy changes to set the power sector on a dramatically different emissions trajectory. Past success, however, does not trivialize the challenges that remain for further decarbonization in the power sector and beyond. Nor does it offer a specific roadmap for how best to achieve additional power-sector emissions reductions. Numerous challenges confront a zero-emissions pathway, and future strategies will likely differ from those of the past. Many recent studies have assessed how to make further progress in decarbonizing the power sector on the pathway to decarbonizing the economy as a whole. We summarize the core results of those studies, but the primary goal of this report is to highlight the progress that has already been made in reducing power-sector emissions. As the country maps out a plan for further decarbonization, experience from the past 15 years offers two central lessons. First, policy and technology advancement are imperative to achieving significant emissions reductions. Second, our ability to predict the future is limited, and so it will be crucial to adapt as we gain policy experience and as technologies advance in unexpected ways.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

Modeling and Simulation of Xe-100-type Pebble Bed Gas-Cooled Reactor with SCALE

The US Department of Energy (DOE) announced the Advanced Reactor Demonstration Program (ARDP) to accelerate the deployment of advanced reactor concepts. Awardees of ARDP funds are expected to demonstrate the operation of an advanced reactor within 7 years of receiving the award. X-Energy’s advanced reactor concept, the Xe-100, was selected as one of two advanced reactor concepts to receive funding to demonstrate the operation of its high-temperature gas-cooled pebble-bed reactor before the end of this decade. As a result of this push to bring advanced reactors to maturation and commercialization, transition and deployment scenario studies are being performed under the Systems Analysis and Integration (SA&I) campaign within the DOE Office of Nuclear Energy (DOE-NE) to evaluate the transition of the current US commercial fleet of light-water reactors (LWRs) to a future fleet of advanced reactors consisting of a mix of ARDP type reactor concepts and advanced LWRs. To accurately evaluate the front- and back-end resource requirements, it is important to perform reactor physics calculations to determine the discharge burnup and isotopic content, fuel residence time, as well as other parameters. For this purpose, a summer project funded by the SA&I campaign allowed for the setup of SCALE models for full-core Xe-100 type high-temperature gas-cooled pebble-bed reactor and a Xe-100 type slice using publicly available information. The core-averaged equilibrium compositions and zone-wise equilibrium compositions for the slice and 3D models, respectively, were obtained following an iterative depletion method developed by Bostelmann et al. using SCALE’s reactor physics sequence TRITON. The slice model was used with TRITON to generate burnup-dependent cross section libraries at different temperatures which can be used with SCALE’s ORIGAMI code to rapidly determine fuel inventory and therefore to perform quick sensitivity studies on parameters such as the pebble location in the core. The SCALE/TRITON transport and depletion calculation for the Xe-100 type slice model indicates that the isotopic concentrations are in good agreement at 1,300 effective full power days (EFPD) for 235 U. An analysis of 236 U results match 239 Pu results would seem to indicate a typographical error in Mulder and Boyes wherein the reported results of 236 U and 239 Pu are reversed. In addition to SCALE/TRITON calculations, a new capability within SCALE/ORIGAMI for the simulation of pebble-bed reactors was used to study the burnup sensitivity with respect to the pebble pathway through the core. The SCALE/ORIGAMI results show that pebbles that travel closer to the reflector for the entire depletion history have a higher burnup than pebbles that travel through the middle of the core because of the higher thermal to fast flux ratio near the reflector. Consequently, a pebble’s burnup is strongly affected by the pebble’s pathway for each pass. Additional phenomena such as temperature distributions in the core and different travel times of the pebbles in the individual radial zones further affect the burnup distribution. The sensitivity of the discharge vector to the pebble pathways taken during each pass can be evaluated in the future using SCALE/ORIGAMI now that the SCALE inputs have been established.

22 GENERAL STUDIES OF NUCLEAR REACTORS↗

Hydropower Flexibility Framework (Final Technical Report)

The Hydropower Flexibility Framework (HFF) tool focuses on providing the hydropower community with an effective means of assessing optimized hydropower plant outcomes. This tool combines both site specific characteristics, which act to constrain plant operation, and the hydrologic and grid characteristics which drive hydropower plant operation. The hydropower community faces a confluence of factors which drive the importance of developing such a capability, including an aging hydropower fleet subject to a range of modernization opportunities, a large number of hydropower plant relicensing activities which may affect operational requirements, an electrical grid with increasing levels of variable resources which must be balanced to maintain grid stability, and climate change influencing riverine hydrologic patterns outside of design characteristics. With support from the hydropower community, the project team developed the HFF tool and demonstrated the tool through a series of Use Cases. This guidance was developed as a part of the larger HFF tool User’s Manual (see Appendix B), a resource designed to inform other users and to empower community uptake of the tool. The HFF tool, hosted at https://hfftool.com/, was developed with the support of the U.S. Department of Energy (DOE) Water Power Technologies Office (WPTO). EPRI is currently exploring alternatives to support the continued maintenance and functionally of the online tool.

13 HYDRO ENERGY↗

Effect of Airspace Characteristics on Urban Air Mobility Airspace Capacity

As interest in urban air mobility grows, increasingly high density traffic poses a challenge for the transition to safe, efficient, and timely operations. Hundreds of simultaneously demanded flights will need to share the same fleet, infrastructure, and constrained airspace. This paper investigates the feasibility of effectively managing high density traffic in congested urban environments by optimizing the design of airspace route structures. Demand estimations for the Dallas-Fort Worth and Los Angeles areas are used to evaluate potential improvements to airspace route design with the goal to accommodate the projected level of demand.

Urban Air Mobility↗