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The NASA Soil Moisture Active Passive (SMAP) Mission - Science and Data Product Development Status

The Soil Moisture Active Passive (SMAP) mission, planned for launch in late 2014, has the objective of frequent, global mapping of near-surface soil moisture and its freeze-thaw state. The SMAP measurement system utilizes an L-band radar and radiometer sharing a rotating 6-meter mesh reflector antenna. The instruments will operate on a spacecraft in a 685 km polar orbit with 6am/6pm nodal crossings, viewing the surface at a constant 40-degree incidence angle with a 1000-km swath width, providing 3-day global coverage. Data from the instruments will yield global maps of soil moisture and freeze/thaw state at 10 km and 3 km resolutions, respectively, every two to three days. The 10-km soil moisture product will be generated using a combined radar and radiometer retrieval algorithm. SMAP will also provide a radiometer-only soil moisture product at 40-km spatial resolution and a radar-only soil moisture product at 3-km resolution. The relative accuracies of these products will vary regionally and will depend on surface characteristics such as vegetation water content, vegetation type, surface roughness, and landscape heterogeneity. The SMAP soil moisture and freeze/thaw measurements will enable significantly improved estimates of the fluxes of water, energy and carbon between the land and atmosphere. Soil moisture and freeze/thaw controls of these fluxes are key factors in the performance of models used for weather and climate predictions and for quantifYing the global carbon balance. Soil moisture measurements are also of importance in modeling and predicting extreme events such as floods and droughts. The algorithms and data products for SMAP are being developed in the SMAP Science Data System (SDS) Testbed. In the Testbed algorithms are developed and evaluated using simulated SMAP observations as well as observational data from current airborne and spaceborne L-band sensors including data from the SMOS and Aquarius missions. We report here on the development status of the SMAP data products. The Testbed simulations are designed to capture various sources of errors in the products including environment effects, instrument effects (nonideal aspects of the measurement system), and retrieval algorithm errors. The SMAP project has developed a Calibration and Validation (Cal/Val) Plan that is designed to support algorithm development (pre-launch) and data product validation (post-launch). A key component of the Cal/Val Plan is the identification, characterization, and instrumentation of sites that can be used to calibrate and validate the sensor data (Level l) and derived geophysical products (Level 2 and higher).

Nloku, E.↗

Application of Satellite Gravimetry for Water Resources Monitoring

Satellite gravimetry is unique in its ability to measure, from space, mass changes in the atmosphere and on and below Earth’s surface. After accounting for atmosphere and ocean mass circulations, scientists use these measurements to estimate changes in terrestrial water storage (TWS), which comprises groundwater, soil moisture, surface waters, snow, and ice. Monthly TWS data from the GRACE and GRACE-FO missions have been available since 2002. This presentation will discuss the application of these data for inferring and attributing regional trends in TWS around the world. It will also describe how the assimilation of GRACE and GRACEFO data into a land surface model enables monitoring and forecasting droughts and flood vulnerability.

Matthew Rodell↗

Comparing Ice Jam Hindcasting Models with Tree Scar Data

Hindcasting models can use historic ice jam observations and hydroclimatic data to identify conditions that form ice jams.However, historic ice jam records are often sparse or incomplete. New sources of historic ice jam data could improve hindcasting models, leading to better ice jam forecasting and flood warning systems. Because ice jams damage riparian trees, marker rings associated with historic scars include information about ice jam frequency and severity. This study examined marker rings from 56 trees along the Muskegon River to supplement the historic ice jam data on this system. The study team compared tree ring data to results from hindcasting models, which were independently validated with newspaper reports on 1,500 separate days. Logistic regression converted the marker ring data into annual ice jam probabilities. Ice jam dates from the dendrochronology data were too noisy to train or validate a hindcasting model. However, the marker ring data did confirm that ice jams on the Muskegon are nonstationary. Ice jams are significantly more likely now than they were before 1966.The marker rings also helped to distinguish between false-negatives and nondetects in the hindcasting model.

Stanford Gibson↗

Primary Production in Antarctic Sea Ice

A numerical model shows that in Antarctic sea ice, increased flooding in regions with thick snow cover enhances primary production in the infiltration (surface) layer. Productivity in the freeboard (sea level) layer is also determined by sea ice porosity, which varies with temperature. Spatial and temporal variation in snow thickness and the proportion of first-year ice thus determine regional differences in sea ice primary production. Model results show that of the 40 tera-grams of carbon produced annually in the Antarctic ice pack, 75 percent was associated with first-year ice and nearly 50 percent was produced in the Weddell Sea.

Arrigo, Kevin R.↗

Storm surges and extreme sea levels: Review, establishment of model intercomparison and coordination of surge climate projection efforts (SurgeMIP).

Coastal flood damage is primarily the result of extreme sea levels. Climate change is expected to drive an increase in these extremes. While proper estimation of changes in storm surges is essential to estimate changes in extreme sea levels, there remains low confidence in future trends of surge contribution to extreme sea levels. Alerting local populations of imminent extreme sea levels is also critical to protecting coastal populations. Both predicting and projecting extreme sea levels require reliable numerical prediction systems. The SurgeMIP (surge model intercomparison) community has been established to tackle such challenges. Efforts to intercompare storm surge prediction systems and coordinate the community 's prediction and projection efforts are introduced. An overview of past and recent advances in storm surge science such as physical processes to consider and the recent development of global forecasting systems are briefly introduced. Selected historical events and drivers behind fast increasing service and knowledge requirements for emergency response to adaptation considerations are also discussed. The community 's initial plans and recent progress are introduced. These include the establishment of an intercomparison project, the identification of research and development gaps, and the introduction of efforts to coordinate projections that span multiple climate scenarios.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

Improving Short Term Predictability of Hydrologic Models with Deep Learning

Focal Area: Focal Area 2. Predictive modeling through the use of AI techniques and AI-derived model components; the use of AI and other tools to design a prediction system comprising of a hierarchy of models (e.g., AI driven model/component/parameterization selection). Science Challenge: A major challenge exists in the lack of reliable predictive modeling of water-cycle extremes using macro-scale hydrologic models that are driven by atmospheric climate data. This causes a critical knowledge gap in understanding the magnitudes, probabilities, and severity of droughts, rainfall, and flooding. Improved understanding of these extreme events requires more accurate modeling at high spatial and temporal resolutions. This shortcoming is especially apparent when complex couplings between atmospheric quantities and engineered systems emerge, such as during extreme precipitation or drought events and at intersections of atmospheric-land-fluvial-ocean systems. Added complexity around representing operations of engineered infrastructure leads to a limited capability to analyze the temporal and spatial implications of compounding extreme events across inland and coastal regions. This results in profound challenges for water and power systems operators, agriculture production, and regional infrastructure planning. The science challenge can be summarized as How can we use AI/ML to improve short term predictability of extreme water-cycle events and associated risk, especially compounding events and extreme rainfall patterns that result in flooding, to inland and coastal communities under different climate scenarios?

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

Channel Water Storage Anomaly: A New Remotely Sensed Quantity for Global River Analysis

River channels store large volumes of water globally, critically impacting ecological and biogeochemical processes. Despite the importance of river channel storage, there is not yet an observational constraint on this quantity. We introduce a 26-year record of entirely remotely sensed volumetric channel water storage (CWS) change on 26 major world rivers. We find mainstem volumetric CWS climatology amplitude (CA) represents an appreciable amount of basin-wide terrestrial water storage variability (median 2.78%, range 0.04%–12.54% across world rivers), despite mainstem rivers themselves represent an average of just 0.2% of basin area. We find that two global river routing schemes coupled with land surface models reasonably approximate CA (within ±50%) in only 11.5% (CaMa-Flood) and 30.7% (HyMap) of rivers considered. These findings demonstrate volumetric CWS is a useful quantity for assessing global hydrological model performance, and for advancing understanding of spatial patterns in global hydrology.

Stephen Coss↗

Microreactor Assembly Transportation Cask Model Description for Criticality Safety Validation Basis Assessment

Criticality safety analyses are completed on a transportation cask used for microreactor assembly shipment to provide an example of model and analysis to industry for reproducing this type of study on their microreactor fuel shipment. The fuel assembly considered is based on a gas-cooled microreactor (GC-MR), which utilizes HALEU fuel in the form of TRISO particles and utilizes various design options considered in industry designs. Various versions of this GC-MR assembly were studied, with and without YH2 moderator, providing similar conclusions. The shipment cask design is revised based on an existing design ES-3100, developed by Y-12 for the transport of highly enriched uranium (HEU), but is enlarged to hold the GC-MR fuel assembly. Criticality safety analysis for the cask/GC-MR fuel assembly package was performed using the CSAS6 sequence of SCALE6.3.2, utilizing the ENDF/B-VII.1 based continuous energy neutron library, and the analysis strictly follows the guideline from NRC reference reports. Different scenarios, e.g. normal operation, undamaged cask with water flooded, damaged cask with optimal water moderation, have been analyzed and it could be concluded the package would always have a large margin of subcriticality even packed in an infinite array. Sensitivity and similarity analyses are also performed using the TSUNAMI sequence of SCALE6.3.2, and the similarity analysis uses all the experiments from the ICSBEP Handbook with Intermediate and Mixed Enriched Uranium (IEU) and Low Enriched Uranium (LEU) systems together with additional ones that are sponsored by the DNCSH program. These similarity analyses indicate that dry cases have no similar benchmark experiments (ck values greater than 0.8), which may become problematic if more assemblies are shipped together (or a fully loaded core is shipped) and margin to criticality is reduced. However, the damaged cask models with flooded assemblies exhibited similarities to many experiments with ck values greater than 0.8.

11 NUCLEAR FUEL CYCLE AND FUEL MATERIALS↗

Physics–Informed Neural Networks of the Saint–Venant Equations for Downscaling a Large–Scale River Model

Large-scale river models are being refined over coastal regions to improve the scientific understanding of coastal processes, hazards and responses to climate change. However, coarse mesh resolutions and approximations in physical representations of tidal rivers limit the performance of such models at resolving the complex flow dynamics near the river-ocean interface, resulting in inaccurate simulations of flood inundation. In this research, we propose a machine learning (ML) framework based on the state-of-the-art physics-informed neural network (PINN) to simulate the downscaled flow at the subgrid scale. First, we demonstrate that PINN is able to assimilate observations of various types and solve the one-dimensional (1-D) Saint-Venant equations (SVE) directly. We perform the flow simulations over a floodplain and along an open channel in several synthetic case studies. The PINN performance is evaluated against analytical solutions and numerical models. Our results indicate that the PINN solutions of water depth have satisfactory accuracy with limited observations assimilated. In the case of flood wave propagation induced by storm surge and tide, a new neural network architecture is proposed based on Fourier feature embeddings that seamlessly encodes the periodic tidal boundary condition in the PINN's formulation. Furthermore, we show that the PINN-based downscaling can produce more reasonable subgrid solutions of the along-channel water depth by assimilating observational data. The PINN solution outperforms the simple linear interpolation in resolving the topography and dynamic flow regimes at the subgrid scale. This study provides a promising path towards improving emulation capabilities in large-scale models to characterize fine-scale coastal processes.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

Flood Estimation under Snowmelt and Rain-on-Snow Processes in Alaska: A Military Installation Perspective

Accurate flood estimation in snow-dominated and high-latitude regions remains challenging due to complex interactions among rainfall, snowmelt, and rain-on-snow (ROS) processes, which are not captured in conventional precipitation-based intensity-duration-frequency (PREC-IDF) curves. This study evaluates the Next-Generation IDF (NG-IDF) framework, an extension of PREC-IDF that incorporates total water available for runoff (precipitation minus changes in snow water equivalent), in two contrasting Alaskan watersheds of Department of Defense (DoD) significance: the Little Chena River Basin (LCRB) in interior Alaska, a tributary of the Chena River that flows through Fort Wainwright and near Eielson Air Force Base, and the Upper Ship Creek Basin (USCB), which drains Joint Base Elmendorf-Richardson near Anchorage. Using long-term SNOTEL observations and event-based rainfall-runoff modeling, NG-IDF and PREC-IDF flood estimates were compared against observation-based flood frequency analyses. Results show that NG-IDF consistently reduces flood-estimation bias by 15–20% relative to PREC-IDF, particularly for snowmelt- and ROS-dominated events. In the interior LCRB, permafrost conditions can substantially amplify flood responses during snowmelt events, an effect not explicitly represented in standard design tools. These findings demonstrate that NG-IDF provides a more physically consistent and transferable framework for flood estimation in cold regions, with potential relevance to mission-critical DoD installation resilience. Projected increases in ROS frequency and permafrost degradation across Alaska further emphasize the need to integrate physics-based hydrologic models that explicitly represent snow and permafrost processes to enhance design resilience and operational readiness for military and other critical infrastructure.

Yan, Hongxiang (ORCID:000000022387403X)↗

Coreflood Tests to Evaluate Enhanced Oil Recovery Potential of Wettability-Altering Surfactants for Oil-Wet Heterogeneous Carbonate Reservoirs

Summary Oil-wetness and heterogeneity are two main factors that result in low oil recovery (OR) by waterflood in carbonate reservoirs. The injected water is likely to flow through high-permeability regions and bypass the oil in the low-permeability matrix. In this study, systematic coreflood tests were carried out in both “homogeneous” cores and “heterogeneous” cores with a wettability-altering surfactant. The homogeneous coreflood tests were conducted to evaluate surfactant retention, as well as to compare tertiary surfactant flooding with secondary surfactant flooding. The heterogeneous coreflood test was proposed to model bypassing in low-permeability matrix during waterfloods, and dynamic imbibition of surfactant into the low-permeability matrix. Surfactant retention results suggest that retention increases as initial oil saturation decreases. The retention of selected surfactant in the target reservoir cores was measured to be within a range of 0.07–0.12 mg/g-rock, which is economically acceptable. The results of homogeneous coreflood tests showed that both secondary waterflood and secondary surfactant flood can achieve high OR (>50%) from relatively homogeneous oil-wet cores. A shut-in phase after the surfactant injection resulted in a surge in oil production, which suggests that enough time should be given for wettability alteration by surfactants. The results of heterogeneous coreflood tests showed that more oil is bypassed in the tighter matrix by waterflood if the permeability is higher in the flooded layer and this bypassed oil is the target for the wettability-altering surfactant floods. Slow wettability-altering surfactant injection leads to imbibition into bypassed regions. When the oil-wet carbonate reservoirs have large unswept regions after waterflood, wettability-altering surfactants can significantly improve OR if enough time is given for imbibition.

Engineering↗

Benchmarking the Integration of WAVEWATCH III Results into HAZUS-MH: Preliminary Results

The report summarizes the results from the preliminary benchmarking activities associated with the use of WAVEWATCH III (WW3) results in the HAZUS-MH MR1 flood module. Project partner Applied Research Associates (ARA) is integrating the WW3 model into HAZUS. The current version of HAZUS-MH predicts loss estimates from hurricane-related coastal flooding by using values of surge only. Using WW3, wave setup can be included with surge. Loss estimates resulting from the use of surge-only and surge-plus-wave-setup were compared. This benchmarking study is preliminary because the HAZUS-MH MR1 flood module was under development at the time of the study. In addition, WW3 is not scheduled to be fully integrated with HAZUS-MH and available for public release until 2008.

Berglund, Judith↗

Microreactor Assembly Transportation Cask Model Description for Criticality Safety Validation Basis Assessment (Rev. 3)

Criticality safety analyses are completed on a transportation cask used for microreactor assembly shipment to provide an example of model and analysis to industry for reproducing this type of study on their microreactor fuel shipment. The fuel assembly considered is based on a gas-cooled microreactor (GC-MR), which utilizes HALEU fuel in the form of TRISO particles and utilizes various design options considered in industry designs. Various versions of this GC-MR assembly were studied, with and without YH 2 moderator, providing similar conclusions. The shipment cask design is revised based on an existing ES-3100 design, developed by Y-12 for the transport of highly enriched uranium (HEU), but is enlarged to hold the GC-MR fuel assembly. Criticality safety analysis for the cask/GC-MR fuel assembly package was performed using the CSAS6 sequence of SCALE6.3.2, utilizing the ENDF/B-VII.1 based continuous energy neutron library, and the analysis strictly follows the guideline from NRC reference reports. Different scenarios, e.g. normal operation, undamaged cask with water flooded, damaged cask with optimal water moderation, have been analyzed and it could be concluded the package would always have a large margin of subcriticality even packed in an infinite array. Sensitivity and similarity analyses are also performed using the TSUNAMI sequence of SCALE6.3.2, and the similarity analysis uses all the experiments from the ICSBEP Handbook with Highly Enriched Uranium (HEU), Intermediate and Mixed Enriched Uranium (IEU) and Low Enriched Uranium (LEU) systems, together with additional ones that are sponsored by the DNCSH program, and selected IRPhEP experiments using TRISO fuel and graphite moderator. These similarity analyses indicate that the dry nominal design has no similar benchmark experiments (ck values greater than 0.8), which may become problematic if more assemblies are shipped together (or a fully loaded core is shipped) and margin to criticality is reduced. However, the cask models with flooded assemblies exhibited similarities to many experiments with c k values greater than 0.8.

22 GENERAL STUDIES OF NUCLEAR REACTORS↗

Constitutive Soil Properties for Unwashed Sand and Kennedy Space Center

Accurate soil models are required for numerical simulations of land landings for the Orion Crew Exploration Vehicle. This report provides constitutive material models for one soil, unwashed sand, from NASA Langley's gantry drop test facility and three soils from Kennedy Space Center (KSC). The four soil models are based on mechanical and compressive behavior observed during geotechnical laboratory testing of remolded soil samples. The test specimens were reconstituted to measured in situ density and moisture content. Tests included: triaxial compression, hydrostatic compression, and uniaxial strain. A fit to the triaxial test results defines the strength envelope. Hydrostatic and uniaxial tests define the compressibility. The constitutive properties are presented in the format of LS-DYNA Material Model 5: Soil and Foam. However, the laboratory test data provided can be used to construct other material models. The four soil models are intended to be specific to the soil conditions discussed in the report. The unwashed sand model represents clayey sand at high density. The KSC models represent three distinct coastal sand conditions: low density dry sand, high density in-situ moisture sand, and high density flooded sand. It is possible to approximate other sands with these models, but the results would be unverified without geotechnical tests to confirm similar soil behavior.

Thomas, Michael A.↗

Dissemination of Global Surface Water Mapping from SAR and Optical Data to Global Stakeholders

Under NASA Solicitation A.37 “Earth Science Applications: Disaster Risk Reduction and Response,” NASA’s Disasters Program is funding projects focused on flood forecasting, post-event flood mapping, flood depth estimation and pre-event flood severity using Earth observation (EO) datasets (SAR and optical imagery) and derived flood products. A new initiative in the Disasters Program is underway to disseminate the flood products from different sensors to global stakeholders via the Pacific Disaster Center’s DisasterAWARE®, the NASA Disasters Mapping Portal and potentially other mechanisms. This initiative will also generate an integrated flood product(s) using an ensemble approach that will combine outputs from hydrologic models and EO data for different stakeholders globally for decision-making and response efforts.

remote sensing↗

Validation of MCNP Critical Benchmark Models of PU-MET-FAST-016

A new centralized repository of high-quality MCNP models of critical benchmark experiments is currently under development at Los Alamos National Laboratory (LANL). The repository is the combined effort of the Nuclear Criticality Safety, Nuclear Data, and Monte Carlo code development/application organizations at LANL. The initial set of benchmark models in the repository are derived from the Whisper Suite provided with MCNP6.2 and are evaluated against the benchmark experiments described in the International Criticality Safety Benchmark Evaluation Project (ICSBEP) Handbook. The goal is to build a single LANL benchmark collection that is up to date with the latest ICSBEP revision, has a formal review and revision process, is contained in an open-source repository, and utilizes new Python tools for improved input and output file review. This paper describes the validation of the models associated with PU-MET-FAST-016, “Flooded 3X3X3 Arrays of 3-kg Plutonium (Pu) Metal Cylinders – Phase I”. In this critical experiment, twenty-seven 3-kg Pu metal cylinders with a height of 46.33 ± 0.15 mm and diameter of 65.25 ± 0.05 mm were arranged in a cubic array. The Pu cylinders were sealed in aluminum cans, and three cans were placed in each of nine perforated aluminum sleeves, as shown in Fig. 1. The nine sleeves were supported by an aluminum frame that allowed for control of the lateral spacing of the cylinders, both in the X and Y directions. The benchmark experiment measured thirteen configurations. Of these configurations, six were modeled using MCNP.

73 NUCLEAR PHYSICS AND RADIATION PHYSICS↗

A Numerical Analysis of The Pool Boiling Process in Flooded Evaporators Using Different Refrigerants

The pool boiling process can be observed in several energy conversion processes including commercial and industrial refrigeration, industrial air-cooling operations, and power generation. The process becomes more involved when pool boiling in a tube bundle is considered. In the current study, a numerical model is developed to predict the key performance parameters of a flooded evaporator while considering a range of working fluids. A kettle reboiler configuration was considered, and a performance model was developed to account for boiling on individual tubes, merging of vapor bubbles, and movement under gravity. A volume of fluid (VOF) model was used to deal with the different phases in the simulation. Various fluids were considered in this study including HFE-7000, HFE-7300, and water. The trajectories of the bubbles were tracked, and the resulting information has been summarized in physical measurable quantities.

Zhang, Mingkan↗