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Search indexed NASA NTRS and DOE OSTI research on propulsion, heat transfer, battery materials and energy systems. Follow report and document links to the original sources.

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At least 325 records · Page 18
All sourcesNASA NTRSDOE OSTI
DOE OSTI2025

Impact of LHC precision measurements of inclusive jet and dijet production on the CTEQ-TEA global PDF fit

In this study, we investigate the impact of new Large Hadron Collider (LHC) inclusive jet and dijet measurements on parton distribution functions (PDFs) that describe the proton structure, with a particular focus on the gluon distribution at large momentum fraction, x , and the corresponding partonic luminosities. We assess constraints from these datasets using next-to-next-to-leading-order (NNLO) theoretical predictions, accounting for a range of uncertainties from scale dependence and numerical integration. From the scale choices available for the calculations, our analysis shows that the central predictions for inclusive jet production show a smaller scale dependence than dijet production. We examine the relative constraints on the gluon distribution provided by the inclusive jet and dijet distributions, and also explore the phenomenological implications for inclusive H , t t ¯ , and t t ¯ H production at the LHC at 14 TeV. Published by the American Physical Society 2025

Ablat, Alim (ORCID:0009000519877755)↗
NASA NTRS2016

Constraining Hesperian martian PCO2 from mineral analysis at Gale crater

Carbon dioxide is an essential atmospheric component in martian climate models that attempt to reconcile a faint young sun with planet-wide evidence of liquid water at the planets surface in the Noachian and Early Hesperian. Current estimates of ancient martian CO2 levels, derived from global inventories of carbon, and orbital detections of Noachian and Early Hesperian clay mineral-bearing terrains indicate CO2 levels that are unable to support warm and wet conditions. These estimates are subject to various sources of uncertainty however. Mineral and contextual sedimentary environmental data collected by the Mars Science Laboratory rover Curiosity in Gale Crater provide a more direct means of estimating the atmospheric partial pressure of CO2 (PCO2) coinciding with a long-lived lake system in Gale crater at ~3.5 Ga. Results from a reaction-transport model, which simulates mineralogy observed within the Sheepbed member at Yellowknife Bay by coupling mineral equilibria with carbonate precipitation kinetics and rates of sedimentation, indicate atmospheric PCO2 levels in the 10’s mbar range. At such low PCO2 levels, climate models are unable to warm Hesperian Mars anywhere near the freezing point of water and other gases are required to raise atmospheric pressure to prevent lakes from boiling away. Thus, lacustrine features of Gale formed in a cold environment by a mechanism yet to be determined, or the climate models still lack an essential component that would serve to elevate surface temperatures, at least temporally and/or locally, on Hesperian Mars. Our results also impose restrictions on the potential role of atmospheric CO2 in inferred warmer conditions of the Noachian.

Bristow, T. F.↗
DOE OSTI2023

Threefold reduction of modeled uncertainty in direct radiative effects over biomass burning regions by constraining absorbing aerosols

Absorbing aerosols emitted from biomass burning (BB) greatly affect the radiation balance, cloudiness, and circulation over tropical regions. Assessments of these impacts rely heavily on the modeled aerosol absorption from poorly constrained global models and thus exhibit large uncertainties. By combining the AeroCom model ensemble with satellite and in situ observations, we provide constraints on the aerosol absorption optical depth (AAOD) over the Amazon and Africa. Our approach enables identification of error contributions from emission, lifetime, and MAC (mass absorption coefficient) per model, with MAC and emission dominating the AAOD errors over Amazon and Africa, respectively. In addition to primary emissions, our analysis suggests substantial formation of secondary organic aerosols over the Amazon but not over Africa. Furthermore, we find that differences in direct aerosol radiative effects between models decrease by threefold over the BB source and outflow regions after correcting the identified errors. This highlights the potential to greatly reduce the uncertainty in the most uncertain radiative forcing agent.

09 BIOMASS FUELS↗
NASA NTRS1985

Global lower mesospheric water vapor revealed by LIMS observations

The Limb Infrared Monitor of the Stratospheric water vapor channel data analysis has been extended from the 1. mb level (about 48 km) to the .3 mb level (about 60 km) through a radiance averaging procedure and better understanding of systematic errors. The data show H2O mixing ratio peaks near the .5 mb level varying from 4 to 7 ppmv with latitude and season. Above this level the mixing ratio drops off quickly with altitude, but, due to experimental uncertainties, at an uncertain rate. The stratospheric results are virtually the same as determined from the archived LIMS results with a tropical hygropause and enhanced H2O concentration in the lower levels at high winter latitudes.

Gordley, L. L.↗
DOE OSTI2020

Modeling Riverine Dissolved and Particulate Organic Carbon Fluxes from Two Small Watersheds in the Northeastern United States

The coupled carbon (C) cycle across terrestrial and aquatic environments at the watershed scale has been identified as an important, but poorly constrained component of the global carbon budget. Here, we extended Soil and Water Assessment Tool (SWAT) with coupled riverine particulate organic carbon (POC) and dissolved organic carbon (DOC) modules (referred to as SWAT-C hereafter). Results show that SWAT-C reproduced daily POC and DOC fluxes well in two watersheds in the Northeastern United States. We found that SWAT-C tended to underestimate high flows and peak DOC and POC fluxes. Uncertainty analysis indicated flux uncertainties associated with POC and DOC simulation were larger than those for flow simulation. Sensitive parameters controlling POC and DOC biogeochemical processes were identified along with how these parameters influence mechanisms underlying C cycling. We anticipate that the tool developed and applied here will inform C related ecosystem services in watershed assessment and planning.

Dissolved organic carbon, Particulate organic carb↗
DOE OSTI2024

New results in the CTEQ-TEA global analysis of parton distributions in the nucleon

This report summarizes the latest developments in the CTEQ-TEA global analysis of parton distribution functions (PDFs) in the nucleon. The focus is on recent NNLO fits to high-precision LHC data at 8 and 13 TeV, including Drell–Yan, jet, and top-quark pair production, pursued on the way toward the release of the new generation of CTEQ-TEA general-purpose PDFs. The report also discusses advancements in statistical and numerical methods for PDF determination and uncertainty quantification, highlighting the importance of robust and replicable uncertainties for high-stakes observables. Additionally, it covers phenomenological studies related to PDF determination, such as the interplay of experimental constraints, exploration of correlations between high-x nucleon sea and low-energy parity-violating measurements, fitted charm in the nucleon, the photon PDF in the neutron, and simultaneous SMEFT-PDF analyses.

73 NUCLEAR PHYSICS AND RADIATION PHYSICS↗
NASA NTRS2010

Improving Forecast Skill by Assimilation of AIRS Temperature Soundings

AIRS was launched on EOS Aqua on May 4, 2002, together with AMSU-A and HSB, to form a next generation polar orbiting infrared and microwave atmospheric sounding system. The primary products of AIRS/AMSU-A are twice daily global fields of atmospheric temperature-humidity profiles, ozone profiles, sea/land surface skin temperature, and cloud related parameters including OLR. The AIRS Version 5 retrieval algorithm, is now being used operationally at the Goddard DISC in the routine generation of geophysical parameters derived from AIRS/AMSU data. A major innovation in Version 5 is the ability to generate case-by-case level-by-level error estimates delta T(p) for retrieved quantities and the use of these error estimates for Quality Control. We conducted a number of data assimilation experiments using the NASA GEOS-5 Data Assimilation System as a step toward finding an optimum balance of spatial coverage and sounding accuracy with regard to improving forecast skill. The model was run at a horizontal resolution of 0.5 deg. latitude X 0.67 deg longitude with 72 vertical levels. These experiments were run during four different seasons, each using a different year. The AIRS temperature profiles were presented to the GEOS-5 analysis as rawinsonde profiles, and the profile error estimates delta (p) were used as the uncertainty for each measurement in the data assimilation process. We compared forecasts analyses generated from the analyses done by assimilation of AIRS temperature profiles with three different sets of thresholds; Standard, Medium, and Tight. Assimilation of Quality Controlled AIRS temperature profiles significantly improve 5-7 day forecast skill compared to that obtained without the benefit of AIRS data in all of the cases studied. In addition, assimilation of Quality Controlled AIRS temperature soundings performs better than assimilation of AIRS observed radiances. Based on the experiments shown, Tight Quality Control of AIRS temperature profile performs best on the average from the perspective of improving Global 7 day forecast skill.

Susskind, Joel↗
DOE OSTI2021

Systematics in the XENON1T data: The 15-keV anti-axion

The XENON1T collaboration Aprile et al. [2020] has found an excess of electron recoil events in their Science Run 1 data below ~7 keV with a spectral shape consistent with that expected from a solar-axion-induced signal. The claimed statistical significance of the solar-axion model over the null hypothesis is 3.5σ. In this work we provide suggestive evidence for mismodeling in the electron recoil data that may decrease the local significance of the axion model. To reach this conclusion, we search for a signal with the spectral template of the solar axion model, but shifted to higher (unphysical) energies above ~7 keV. We find that the distribution of significances found from this side-band analysis does not follow the expected chi-square distribution. For example, we find a high-significance feature in the data, with a global $p$-value $p≈0.026$, when the solar axion model is shifted upwards in energy by ~15 keV and allowed to have a negative normalization. We argue that such statistical tests, if performed a priori, provide a data-driven way to test and potentially account for systematic uncertainties on the background model in low-threshold dark matter experiments.

79 ASTRONOMY AND ASTROPHYSICS↗
DOE OSTI2025

Direct sensitivity analysis on the parameterization of crystal plasticity models

Various methods for calibrating crystal plasticity finite element (CPFE) models lead to non-unique input parameter values, which subsequently introduce uncertainty in the predicted mechanical response. Sensitivity analysis (SA) conducted on crystal plasticity models is used to identify how variability in these parameters contribute to output uncertainty. Traditional SA on CPFE parameters uses simplified surrogate models to save computational time. However, the accuracy of the surrogate models depends on the quantity of training data used, and any modeling error can propagate into the SA results, potentially affecting their reliability. In this work, the elementary effects test (EET) method, a global SA technique using direct CPFE simulations was employed, and the results obtained were compared with the First Order Second Moment (FOSM) method. ExaConstit, an open-source GPU-enabled CPFE code, was used to perform the simulations and direct SA. The EET method was accurately able to capture the non-linear effects of all the input parameters on the output and is a valuable approach for reliably attributing parameter sensitivities in CPFE models. Based on the results, efficient strategies to perform future parameter calibration and SA are discussed. Additionally, the SA trends observed in different single crystal orientations closely mirrored the activity of the slip systems.

Elementary Effects Test↗
NASA NTRS2017

Towards the Development of a Global, Satellite-based, Terrestrial Snow Mission Planning Tool

A global, satellite-based, terrestrial snow mission planning tool is proposed to help inform experimental mission design with relevance to snow depth and snow water equivalent (SWE). The idea leverages the capabilities of NASAs Land Information System (LIS) and the Tradespace Analysis Tool for Constellations (TAT C) to harness the information content of Earth science mission data across a suite of hypothetical sensor designs, orbital configurations, data assimilation algorithms, and optimization and uncertainty techniques, including cost estimates and risk assessments of each hypothetical orbital configuration.One objective the proposed observing system simulation experiment (OSSE) is to assess the complementary or perhaps contradictory information content derived from the simultaneous collection of passive microwave (radiometer), active microwave (radar), and LIDAR observations from space-based platforms. The integrated system will enable a true end-to-end OSSE that can help quantify the value of observations based on their utility towards both scientific research and applications as well as to better guide future mission design. Science and mission planning questions addressed as part of this concept include:1. What observational records are needed (in space and time) to maximize terrestrial snow experimental utility?2. How might observations be coordinated (in space and time) to maximize utility? 3. What is the additional utility associated with an additional observation?4. How can future mission costs being minimized while ensuring Science requirements are fulfilled?

Mission Design↗
NASA NTRS1993

Observations of aerosol by the HALOE experiment onboard UARS - A preliminary validation

The HALOE experiment measures vertical profiles of aerosol extinction at five infrared wavelengths. Four of these observations are obtained using a combination of gas filter and broadband radiometer measurements in bands of HF, HCl, CH4, and NO centered at wavelengths of 2.45, 3.40, 3.45, and 5.26 microns, respectively. The fifth is obtained using broadband radiometer measurements of CO2 transmission at 2.79 microns. Error analysis shows that the random extinction uncertainties are generally less than 10 percent in the aerosol layer, increasing to over 20 percent at the profile tops. HALOE spectral extinction measurements are shown to be consistent with predicted spectral extinction for stratospheric sulfate aerosol. Profile comparisons between HALOE and independent sources result in generally good agreement in the shape and magnitude of peak extinction and the altitude where the peak extinction occurs. In addition, global aerosol distributions obtained from the data are consistent with expected aerosol morphology. Although the validation is preliminary, the HALOE aerosol data appear to be of excellent quality and to accurately represent optical characteristics and distribution of the aerosols.

Hervig, Mark E.↗
NASA NTRSDate not supplied

Efficient Parametric Uncertainty Analysis of an Earth Entry Vehicle Concept Using Least Angle Regression

The objective of this work was to outline and apply an efficient and accurate parametric un-certainty propagation approach to the analysis of convective heating on an Earth entry vehicle concept. The described approach was based on Least Angle Regression used to solve a sparse and underdetermined linear system in the point-collocation non-intrusive polynomial chaos surrogate method. This approach involved an iterative process to computing the non-zero terms of the underlying polynomial chaos model using only enough samples to converge uncertainty interval predictions and Sobol index values based global nonlinear sensitivity estimates. The Earth entry vehicle was analyzed at three points along a representative trajectory for a Mars return mission. 329 sources of uncertainty were identified in the computational fluid dynamics model used to predict the forebody convective heating. These included uncertainty in flow field chemical rates, collision integrals, heats of formation, surface finite rate char model reaction rates, wall roughness height, and the turbulent Schmidt number. Results from this study showed that convective heating uncertainty as high as 50% of the nominal was predicted with only about 50 evaluations of the computational model. This was far fewer than would be required for a sampling-based approach or a full basis polynomial chaos model, which would have required over 50,000 samples. Additionally, results showed that over 90% of the total convective heating uncertainty was due to uncertainty in the N2catalytic rate on the surface, while the remainder of the uncertainty was attributed to the turbulent Schmidt number and the wall roughness uncertainties.

Thomas K West IV↗
NASA NTRSDate not supplied

Global Sensitivity Analyses for Test Planning with Black-Box Models for Mars Sample Return

This work describes sensitivity analyses performed on complex black-box models used to support experimental test planning under limited resources in the context of the Mars Sample Return program, which aims at bringing to Earth rock and atmospheric samples from Mars. We develop a systematic workflow that allows the analysts to simultaneously obtain quantitative insights on key drivers of uncertainty, on the direction of impact, and the presence of interactions. We apply novel optimal transport-based global sensitivity measures to tackle the multivariate nature of the output. On the modeling side, we apply multi-fidelity techniques that leverage low-fidelity models to speed up the calculations and make up for the limited amount of high-fidelity samples, while keeping these in the loop for accuracy guarantees. The sensitivity analysis reveals insights useful for the analysts to understand the model's behavior and identify the factors to focus on during testing in order to maximize the value of information extracted from them to ensure mission success when limited resources are available.

Giuseppe Cataldo↗
NASA NTRS2021

Strong Regional Influence of Climatic Forcing Datasets on Global Crop Model Ensembles

We present results from the Agricultural Model Intercomparison and Improvement Project (AgMIP) Global Gridded Crop Model Intercomparison (GGCMI) Phase I, which aligned 14 global gridded crop models (GGCMs) and 11 climatic forcing datasets (CFDs) in order to understand how the selection of climate data affects simulated historical crop productivity of maize, wheat, rice and soybean. Results show that CFDs demonstrate mean biases and differences in the probability of extreme events, with larger uncertainty around extreme precipitation and in regions where observational data for climate and crop systems are scarce. Countries where simulations correlate highly with reported FAO national production anomalies tend to have high correlations across most CFDs, whose influence we isolate using multi-GGCM ensembles for each CFD. Correlations compare favorably with the climate signal detected in other studies, although production in many countries is not primarily climate-limited (particularly for rice). Bias-adjusted CFDs most often were among the highest model-observation correlations, although all CFDs produced the highest correlation in at least one top-producing country. Analysis of larger multi-CFD-multi-GGCM ensembles (up to 91 members) shows benefits over the use of smaller subset of models in some regions and farming systems, although bigger is not always better. Our analysis suggests that global assessments should prioritize ensembles based on multiple crop models over multiple CFDs as long as a top-performing CFD is utilized for the focus region.

Agricultural Model Intercomparison and Improvement↗
DOE OSTI2023

LiG Metrology, Correlated Error, and the Integrity of the Global Surface Air-Temperature Record

The published 95% uncertainty of the global surface air-temperature anomaly (GSATA) record through 1980 is impossibly less than the 2σ = ±0.25 °C lower limit of laboratory resolution of 1 °C/division liquid-in-glass (LiG) thermometers. The ~0.7 °C/century Joule-drift of lead- and soft-glass thermometer bulbs renders unreliable the entire historical air-temperature record through the 19th century. A circa 1900 Baudin meteorological spirit thermometer bulb exhibited intense Pb X-ray emission lines (10.55, 12.66, and 14.76 keV). Uncorrected LiG thermometer non-linearity leaves 1σ = ±0.27 °C uncertainty in land-surface air temperatures prior to 1981. The 2σ = ±0.43 °C from LiG resolution and non-linearity obscures most of the 20th century GSATA trend. Systematic sensor-measurement errors are highly pair-wise correlated, possibly across hundreds of km. Non-normal distributions of bucket and engine-intake difference SSTs disconfirm the assumption of random measurement error. Semivariogram analysis of ship SST measurements yields half the error difference mean, ±½Δε 1,2, not the error mean. Transfer-function adjustment following a change of land station air-temperature sensor eliminates measurement independence and forward-propagates the antecedent uncertainty. LiG resolution limits, non-linearity, and sensor field calibrations yield GSATA mean ±2σ RMS uncertainties of, 1900–1945, ±1.7 °C; 1946–1980, ±2.1 °C; 1981–2004, ±2.0 °C; and 2005–2010, ±1.6 °C. Finally, the 20th century (1900–1999) GSATA, 0.74 ± 1.94 °C, does not convey any information about rate or magnitude of temperature change.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2023

Biogeophysical Effects of Land-Use and Land-Cover Change Not Detectable in Warmest Month

Land-use and land-cover changes (hereafter simply “land use”) alter climates biogeophysically by affecting surface fluxes of energy and water. Yet, near-surface temperature responses to land use across observational versus model-based studies and spatial-temporal scales can be inconsistent. Here we assess the prevalence of the historical land use signal of daily maximum temperatures averaged over the warmest month of the year (t LU ) using regularized optimal fingerprinting for detection and attribution. We use observations from the Climatic Research Unit and Berkeley Earth alongside historical simulations with and without land use from phase 6 of the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project to reconstruct an experiment representing the effects of land use on climate. To assess the signal of land use at spatially resolved continental and global scales, we aggregate all input data across reference regions and continents, respectively. At both scales, land use does not comprise a significantly detectable set of forcings for two of four Earth system models and their multimodel mean. Furthermore, using a principal component analysis, we find that t LU is mostly composed of the nonlocal effects of land use rather than its local effects. These findings show that, at scales relevant for climate attribution, uncertainties in Earth system model representations of land use are too high relative to the effects of internal variability to confidently assess land use.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2022

Ideas and perspectives: Enhancing research and monitoring of carbon pools and land-to-atmosphere greenhouse gases exchange in developing countries

Carbon (C) and greenhouse gas (GHG) research has traditionally required data collection and analysis using advanced and often expensive instruments, complex and proprietary software, and highly specialized research technicians. Partly as a result, relatively little C and GHG research has been conducted in resource-constrained developing countries. At the same time, these are often the same countries and regions in which climate change impacts will likely be strongest and in which major science uncertainties are centered, given the importance of dryland and tropical systems to the global C cycle. Increasingly, scientific communities have adopted appropriate technology and approach (AT&A) for C and GHG research, which focuses on low-cost and low-technology instruments, open-source software and data, and participatory and networking-based research approaches. Adopting AT&A can mean acquiring data with fewer technical constraints and lower economic burden and is thus a strategy for enhancing C and GHG research in developing countries. However, AT&A can have higher uncertainties; these can often be mitigated by carefully designing experiments, providing clear protocols for data collection, and monitoring and validating the quality of obtained data. For implementing this approach in developing countries, it is first necessary to recognize the scientific and moral importance of AT&A. At the same time, new AT&A techniques should be identified and further developed. All these processes should be promoted in collaboration with local researchers and through training local staff and encouraged for wide use and further innovation in developing countries.

Kim, Dong-Gill↗
NASA NTRS2011

NEWS Climatology Project: The State of the Water Cycle at Continental to Global Scales

NASA's Energy and Water Cycle Study (NEWS) program fosters collaborative research towards improved quantification and prediction of water and energy cycle consequences of climate change. In order to measure change, it is first necessary to describe current conditions. The goal of the NEWS Water and Energy Cycle Climatology project is to develop "state of the global water cycle" and "state of the global energy cycle" assessments based on data from modern ground and space based observing systems and data integrating models. The project is a multiinstitutional collaboration with more than 20 active contributors. This presentation will describe results of the first stage of the water budget analysis, whose goal was to characterize the current state of the water cycle on mean monthly, continental scales. We examine our success in closing the water budget within the expected uncertainty range and the effects of forcing budget closure as a method for refining individual flux estimates.

Rodell, Matthew↗