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Development of Possible Go-Around Criteria for Transport Aircraft

This paper adds data to help with the development of possible go-around criteria for transport category aircraft. Presently, airline procedures state that pilots make a go-around decision using multiple criteria at 1000 or 500 ft above the ground, or so-called gates. An experiment conducted on three level-D full-flight simulators investigated the conditions from which pilots cannot successfully recover from an unstable approach and make a normal landing. In addition, pilots' perceptions of risk under these various unstable approach conditions and resulting landings were assessed. Six crews, comprised of a captain and a first officer from the same airline, participated in each simulator. Both the captain and the first officer flew approaches and landings from 55 different initial conditions with varying gate heights, localizer deviations, glideslope deviations, reference-speed deviations, and rate of descents. The initial condition at the starting gate mainly affected longitudinal touchdown deviation and rate of descent at touchdown, with reference-speed deviation having the most significant effect. Results show little difference in touchdown performance for conditions from the 300-ft and 500-ft gates. Conditions at the 100-ft gate introduced significant differences in touchdown performance. Reference-speed and localizer deviation at the starting gate had the strongest influences on perceived risk and go-around decision. In line with other studies, these findings suggest that a 300-ft go-around gate might be acceptable. More research is required to investigate the effects of environmental and runway variables before possible go-around criteria for transport category aircraft can be defined.

GO-AROUNDS↗

Current data are consistent with flat spatial hypersurfaces in the Λ CDM cosmological model but favor more lensing than the model predicts

Here, we study the performance of three pairs of tilted, and a pair of untilited, ΛCDM cosmological models, with three of these four pairs allowing for non-flat spatial hypersurfaces, against cosmic microwave background (CMB) temperature and polarization power spectrum data (P18), measurements of the Planck 2018 lensing potential power spectrum (lensing), and a large compilation of non-CMB data (non-CMB). For the eight models, we measure cosmological parameters and study whether or not pairs of the data sets (as well as subsets of them) are mutually consistent in these models. Half of these models allow the lensing consistency parameter A L , which re-scales the gravitational potential power spectrum, to be an additional free parameter to be determined from data, while the other three have A L = 1 which is the theoretically expected value. The pair of untilted non-flat ΛCDM models are incompatible with P18 data. The tilted spatially-flat models assume the usual primordial spatial inhomogeneity power spectrum that is a power law in wave number. The tilted non-flat models assume either the primordial power spectrum used in the Planck group anal yses [Planck P(q)], that has recently been numerically shown to be a good approximation to what is quantum-mechanically generated from a particular choice of closed inflation model initial conditions, or a recently computed power spectrum [new P(q)] that quantum-mechanically follows from a different set of non-flat inflation model initial conditions. In the tilted non-flat models with A L = 1 we find differences between P18 data and non-CMB data cosmological parameter constraints, which are large enough to rule out the Planck P(q) model at 3σ but not the new P(q) model. No significant differences are found when cosmological parameter constraints obtained with two different data sets are compared within the standard tilted flat ΛCDM model. While both P18 data and non-CMB data separately favor a closed geometry, with spatial curvature density parameter Ω k < 0, when P18+non-CMB data are jointly analyzed the evidence in favor of non-flat hypersurfaces subsides. Differences between P18 data and non-CMB data cosmological constraints subside when A L is allowed to vary. From the most restrictive P18+lensing+non-CMB data combination we get almost model-independent constraints on the cosmological parameters and find that the A L > 1 option is preferred over the Ω k < 0 one, with the A L parameter, for all models, being larger than unity by ~ 2.5σ. According to the deviance information criterion, in the P18+lensing+non-CMB analysis, the varying A L option is on the verge of being strongly favored over the A L = 1 one, which could indicate a problem for the standard tilted flat ΛCDM model. These data are consistent with flat spatial hypersurfaces but more and better data could improve the constraints on Ω k and might alter this conclusion. Error bars on some cosmological parameters are significantly reduced when non-CMB data are used jointly with P18+lensing data. For example, in the tilted flat ΛCDM model for P18+lensing+non-CMB data the Hubble constant H 0 = 68.09 ± 0.38 km s -1 Mpc -1 , which is consistent with that from a median statistics analysis of a large compilation of H 0 measurements as well as with a number of local measurements of the cosmological expansion rate. This H 0 error bar is 31% smaller than that from P18+lensing data alone.

79 ASTRONOMY AND ASTROPHYSICS↗

MatCal Users Guide: Release 1.3.0

Any continuum mechanics model will require three components: (1) a discretized geometry of the boundary value problem being studied, (2) the partial differential equations to be solved, and (3) the initial conditions and boundary conditions for the problem. To describe material behavior in these computational models, material models contribute to (2) the underlying equations and, occasionally, to (3) the initial conditions for the simulation. These material models can exhibit a mathematical form that is empirically based, based on first principles, or developed from both empirical observations and known physics. In general, these models are meant to represent a class of materials with well understood behavior. As a result, material models have parameters that must be tuned or calibrated so that the model response matches characterization data available for the specific material it is intended to represent when used to simulate a specific system. For simple models, such as isotropic, linear elastic materials in solid mechanics, this calibration process can be a simple analytical calculation directly extracting the parameters from experimental measurements. For complex models that have many inputs and require many characterization datasets to adequately identify the material behavior, the model calibration process can require an inverse problem approach where an optimization is performed to tune the model parameters to the available data.

36 MATERIALS SCIENCE↗

Automated Control for Nuclear Thermal Propulsion Start-Up using MOOSE-based Applications

This report presents a Griffin/Bison/RELAP-7 numerical model of a prototypical NTP system that features fuel assemblies arranged in rings, and which was designed to simulate rapid startup transients. The physics modeled include full-core neutronics, assembly-wise heat conduction, and conjugate heat transfer, with the balance of plant mainly imposed through boundary conditions. In addition, various forms of automated reactivity control were deployed by using the MOOSE to autonomously drive the model and simulate the reactor transitioning from assumed initial conditions to nominal power in a fraction of a minute. To generate the cross-sections of the neutronics model, and in an effort to simultaneously account for the tremendous axial temperature gradients in the reactor and to limit the number of state points required for cross-section generation, the average component temperatures and hydrogen densities in the cooling channels were correlated to the average fuel and moderator temperatures, and fixed axial profiles were derived for nominal conditions and then used during the transient. With this approximation, a tractable cross-section library tabulated with fuel/moderator temperatures and CD angles was generated using Serpent. The full-core SPH correction procedure and the CD decusping technology in Griffin, respectively, ensure preservation of the multiplication factor and reaction rates at state points, along with a reasonably accurate reactivity worth between tabulated CD angles, despite using a coarse mesh. Feedback from other physics was calculated by modeling one representative fuel assembly per ring, along with the corresponding fuel and moderator cooling channels. To limit power overshoots during startup, another layer of multiphysics coupling was added to the model in order to automatically control the drums. Two different technologies presented herein showed outstanding performance in this regard: (1) a novel hybrid PID controller based on both power and reactivity signals, and (2) a PGC that relies on kinetics parameters and reactivity coefficients to predict future behavior and adjust the desired signal accordingly. A challenging benchmark was devised, featuring a power demand curve that exponentially increases by a factor of 500 within 30 seconds, then levels out after that. Both control approaches create a simulated power curve that closely follows the power demand curve and limits power overshoots to 1% or less. While the former approach requires more tuning of the internal parameters, the latter requires additional knowledge of the reactivity feedback coefficients and rates of change of the corresponding variables, including fuel and moderator temperature, which could be difficult to dynamically measure for a real NTP system. Fortunately, some inaccuracy in these quantities will not drastically degrade the PGC performance. Subsequently, a more realistic startup sequence was considered, in which the mass flow rate and outlet pressures are ramped up to model bootstrap and thrust build-up phases prior to reaching steady-state conditions, demonstrating the ability of the hybrid PID and PGCs to handle such transients, with both types of controllers exhibiting very similar behavior. Nevertheless, a significant chamber temperature overshoot was observed, caused by the demanded power signal and assumed mass flow rate. This issue could be mitigated by deploying a reactor controller that follows the chamber temperature signal and actuates both the control valves and drums (rather than using a power signal based solely on the drums to control reactivity). Enhancement of the hydrogen fluid properties available in MOOSE, as well as a better understanding of prototypical initial conditions, are also needed to further enhance this startup model. Finally, a study was performed to model decay heat post-shutdown, and to prepare for extending this model to predict shutdown behavior and post-shutdown pulsed cooling requirements.

33 ADVANCED PROPULSION SYSTEMS↗

Investigation of models for large-scale meteorological prediction experiments

Forecast and climate simulation experiments were conducted with a medium mesh (8 degrees of latitude by 10 degrees of longitude) 7 layer climate model. The outputs emphasized are: (1) monthly mean forecasts for the months of October 1976 through February 1977 generated from global initial conditions for the first day of each month; and (2) a model climatology generated by running the model for five simulated years from one set of initial conditions (1 December 1967) and averaging the 5 outputs for each of the 12 calendar months.

Spar, J.↗

Calculation of boundary layers near the stagnation point of an oscillating airfoil

The results of an investigation of boundary layers close to the stagnation point of an oscillating airfoil are reported. Two procedures for generating initial conditions, the characteristics box scheme and a quasi-static approach, were investigated, and the quasi-static approach was shown to be appropriate provided the initial region was far from any flow separation. With initial conditions generated in this way, the unsteady boundary layer equations were solved for the flow in the leading edge region of a NACA 0012 airfoil oscillating from 0 to 5 deg. Results were obtained for both laminar and turbulent flow, and, in the latter case, the effect of transition was assessed by specifying its occurrence at different locations. The results demonstrate the validity of the numerical scheme and suggest that the procedures should be applied to calculation of the entire flow around oscillating airfoils.

Cebeci, T.↗

What is flat ΛCDM, and may we choose it?

The Universe is neither homogeneous nor isotropic, but it is close enough that we can reasonably approximate it as such on suitably large scales. The inflationary-Λ-Cold Dark Matter (ΛCDM) concordance cosmology builds on these assumptions to describe the origin and evolution of fluctuations. With standard assumptions about stress-energy sources, this system is specified by just seven phenomenological parameters, whose precise relations to underlying fundamental theories are complicated and may depend on details of those fields. Nevertheless, it is common practice to set the parameter that characterizes the spatial curvature, Ω K , exactly to zero. This parameter-fixed ΛCDM is awarded distinguished status as separate model, "flat ΛCDM." Ipso facto this places the onus on proponents of "curved ΛCDM" to present sufficient evidence that Ω K ≠ 0, and is needed as a parameter. While certain inflationary model Lagrangians, with certain values of their parameters, and certain initial conditions, will lead to a present-day universe well-described as containing zero curvature, this does not justify distinguishing that subset of Lagrangians, parameters and initial conditions into a separate model. Absent any theoretical arguments, we cannot use observations that suggest small Ω K to enforce Ω K = 0. Our track record in picking inflationary models and their parameters a priori makes such a choice dubious, and concerns about tensions in cosmological parameters and large-angle cosmic-microwave-background anomalies strengthens arguments against this choice. We argue that Ω K must not be set to zero, and that ΛCDM remains a phenomenological model with at least 7 parameters.

79 ASTRONOMY AND ASTROPHYSICS↗

An analytical investigation of transient effects on rewetting of heated thin flat plates

The rewetting of a hot surface is a problem of prime importance in the microgravity application of heat pipe technology, where rewetting controls the time before operations can be re-established following depriming of a heat pipe. Rewetting is also important in the nuclear industry (in predicting behavior during loss-of-coolant accidents), as well as in the chemical and petrochemical industries. Recently Chan and Zhang have presented a closed-form solution for the determination of the rewetting speed of a liquid film flowing over a finite (but long) hot plate subject to uniform heating. Unfortunately, their physically unreasonable initial conditions preclude a meaningful analysis of start-up transient behavior. A new nondimensionalization and closed-form solution for an infinitely-long, uniformly-heated plate is presented. Realistic initial conditions (step change in temperature across the wetting front) and boundary conditions (no spatial temperature gradients infinitely far from the wetting front) are employed. The effects of parametric variation on the resulting simpler closed-form solution are presented and compared with the predictions of a 'quasi-steady' model. The time to reach steady-state rewetting is found to be a strong function of the initial dry-region plate temperature. For heated plates it is found that in most cases the effect of the transient response terms cannot be neglected, even for large times.

Platt, J. A.↗

Nonlinear Dynamic Models in Advanced Life Support

To facilitate analysis, ALS systems are often assumed to be linear and time invariant, but they usually have important nonlinear and dynamic aspects. Nonlinear dynamic behavior can be caused by time varying inputs, changes in system parameters, nonlinear system functions, closed loop feedback delays, and limits on buffer storage or processing rates. Dynamic models are usually cataloged according to the number of state variables. The simplest dynamic models are linear, using only integration, multiplication, addition, and subtraction of the state variables. A general linear model with only two state variables can produce all the possible dynamic behavior of linear systems with many state variables, including stability, oscillation, or exponential growth and decay. Linear systems can be described using mathematical analysis. Nonlinear dynamics can be fully explored only by computer simulations of models. Unexpected behavior is produced by simple models having only two or three state variables with simple mathematical relations between them. Closed loop feedback delays are a major source of system instability. Exceeding limits on buffer storage or processing rates forces systems to change operating mode. Different equilibrium points may be reached from different initial conditions. Instead of one stable equilibrium point, the system may have several equilibrium points, oscillate at different frequencies, or even behave chaotically, depending on the system inputs and initial conditions. The frequency spectrum of an output oscillation may contain harmonics and the sums and differences of input frequencies, but it may also contain a stable limit cycle oscillation not related to input frequencies. We must investigate the nonlinear dynamic aspects of advanced life support systems to understand and counter undesirable behavior.

Jones, Harry↗

The research into the propagation law of the shock wave of a gas explosion inside a building

Based on the dissipation rate conservation equations of turbulent kinetic energy in the k‐ ε turbulence model, a complicated three‐dimensional finite element model of a kitchen filled with gas mixture is developed by using the open source field operation and manipulation (OpenFOAM). Two representative kitchens were used to investigate the propagation law of the shock wave of a gas explosion inside a building by considering the key characteristics of the blast shock wave. The influence of some crucial parameters, such as initial conditions and kitchen parameters, on the properties of the blast shock wave is investigated. The basic steps to predict the peak pressure of the blast shock wave are given in consideration of the initial condition and the kitchen whilst the injury effect of the blast shock wave on the humans and animals is evaluated. The research results indicate that the pressure time history and the peak pressure space distribution are greatly influenced by the kitchen design layout. The coupled interaction between the initial temperature and gas volume concentration, especially at the upper and lower explosion limits of the gas, significantly affects the peak pressure. The peak pressure varies significantly with the opening and the buffer; however, it has little relation with the width, length, and height of the kitchen. The proposed method can accurately and effectively predict the peak pressure of the blast shock wave inside buildings. In terms of the peak pressure space distribution of the explosion shock wave, the peak pressure is much higher than the threshold of the killing pressure, which is unsafe for the humans and animals in the building.

Lin, Shu-Chao↗

Investigation of an octupole breathing mode of 208 Pb as a resolution to the elliptical-to-triangular azimuthal anisotropy puzzle in ultracentral relativistic heavy ion collisions

Relativistic heavy ion collisions provide a unique opportunity to probe the nuclear structure by taking an instantaneous snapshot of the colliding nuclei and converting it into momentum anisotropies of final emitted hadrons. A long-standing puzzle of too large a ratio of the elliptical-to-triangular (𝑣 2 -to-𝑣 3 ) anisotropies in ultracentral 208 Pb + 208 Pb collisions at the Large Hadron Collider (LHC) cannot be solved simply by hydrodynamic simulations with initial conditions containing the spherical or certain deformed shape of 208 Pb. Here, in this Letter, using the iEBE-VISHNU relativistic viscous hydrodynamic hybrid model simulations with the TR⁢ENTo initial condition, we show that a dynamic octupole deformation—a shape-breathing mode of 208 Pb —could potentially solve the 𝑣2-to-𝑣3 puzzle and simultaneously describe the 𝑣 3 ⁡{4} data measured in experiment. Our results highlight the unique capability of capturing transient collective properties of nuclei on yoctosecond (10 −24 s) timescales, unfeasible with low-energy nuclear reactions.

Xu, Hao-jie [Huzhou University, Zhejiang (China)] ↗

Noise and Dynamical Pattern Selection

In pattern-forming systems, such as Rayleigh-Benard convection or directional solidification, a large number of linearly stable, patterned steady states exist when the basic, simple steady state is unstable. Which of these steady states will be realized in a given experiment appears to depend on unobservable details of the system's initial conditions. We show, however, that weak, Gaussian white noise drives such a system toward a preferred wave number which depends only on the system parameters and is independent of initial conditions. We give a prescription for calculating this wave number, analytically near the onset of instability and numerically otherwise.

Kurtze, Douglas A.↗

Ensemble Spread Behavior in Coupled Climate Models: Insights From the Energy Exascale Earth System Model Version 1 Large Ensemble

AbstractAssessing uncertainty in future climate projections requires understanding both internal climate variability and external forcing. For this reason, single‐model initial condition large ensembles (SMILEs) run with Earth System Models (ESMs) have recently become popular. Here we present a new 20‐member SMILE with the Energy Exascale Earth System Model version 1 (E3SMv1‐LE), which uses a “macro” initialization strategy choosing coupled atmosphere/ocean states based on inter‐basin contrasts in ocean heat content (OHC). The E3SMv1‐LE simulates tropical climate variability well, albeit with a muted warming trend over the twentieth century due to overly strong aerosol forcing. The E3SMv1‐LE's initial climate spread is comparable to other (larger) SMILEs, suggesting that maximizing inter‐basin ocean heat contrasts may be an efficient method of generating ensemble spread. We also compare different ensemble spread across multiple SMILEs, using surface air temperature and OHC. The Community Earth system Model version 1, the only ensemble which utilizes a “micro” initialization approach perturbing only atmospheric initial conditions, yields lower spread in the first ∼30 years. The E3SMv1‐LE exhibits a relatively large spread, with some evidence for anthropogenic forcing influencing spread in the late twentieth century. However, systematic effects of differing “macro” initialization strategies are difficult to detect, possibly resulting from differing model physics or responses to external forcing. Notably, the method of standardizing results affects ensemble spread: control simulations for most models have either large background trends or multi‐centennial variability in OHC. This spurious disequlibrium behavior is a substantial roadblock to understanding both internal climate variability and its response to forcing.

Stevenson, Samantha↗

Impact of microwave derived soil moisture on hydrologic simulations using a spatially distributed water balance model

Spatial distributions of soil moisture over an agricultural watershed with a drainage area of 60 ha were derived from two NASA microwave remote sensors, and then used as a feedback to determine the initial condition for a distributed water balance model. Simulated hydrologic fluxes over a period of twelve days were compared with field observations and with model predictions based on a streamflow derived initial condition. The results indicated that even the low resolution remotely sensed data can improve the hydrologic model's performance in simulating the dynamics of unsaturated zone soil moisture. For the particular watershed under study, the simulated water budget was not sensitive to the resolutions of the microwave sensors.

Lin, D. S.↗

Global Magnetohydrodynamic Modeling of the Solar Corona

Under this contract, we have continued our investigations of the large scale structure of the solar corona and inner heliosphere using global magnetohydrodynamic (MHD) simulations. These computations have also formed the basis for studies of coronal mass ejections (CMES) using realistic coronal configurations. We have developed a technique for computing realistic magnetohydrodynamic (MHD) computations of the solar corona and inner heliosphere. To perform computations that can be compared with specific observations, it is necessary to incorporate solar observations into the boundary conditions. We have used the Wilcox Solar Observatory synoptic maps (collected during a solar rotation by daily measurements of the line-of-sight magnetic field at central meridian) to specify the radial magnetic field (B,) at the photosphere. For the initial condition, we use a potential magnetic field consistent with the specified distribution of B, at the lower boundary, and a wind solution consistent with the specified plasma density and temperature at the solar surface. Together this initial condition forms a (non-equilibrium) approximation of the state of the solar corona for the time-dependent MHD computation. The MHD equations are then integrated in time to steady state. Here we describe solutions relevant to a recent solar eclipse, as well as Ulysses observations. We have also developed a model configuration of solar minimum, useful for studying CME initiation and propagation.

Linker, Jon A.↗

Study of an Automatic System for Control of the Terminal Phase of Satellite Rendezvous

An analytical and simulation study has been conducted of an automatic system for control of the terminal phase of rendezvous between two space vehicles. The basic system employs switching and thrust orientation criteria based upon relative-motion parameters first to establish a collision course and then to reduce the range and range rate to zero, simultaneously. In addition, a technique has been devised by which the system effects control based upon the total amount of fuel available for this phase of the space mission. The onboard equipment assumed for the intercepting vehicle includes a special-purpose computer, an attitude-control system, a single main rocket engine with, multi-start capabilities, and sensors capable of measuring range, line-of sight angles, and the time derivatives of these quantities. Techniques are developed. for employing control with either modulated thrust or on-off thrust at a constant level. The results of an analog simulation study of the automatic control system in which a six-degree-of freedom vehicle is assumed are presented for various initial conditions at the beginning of the terminal phase. The results of the study indicate that the automatic system can effectively control the terminal phase of rendezvous over a wide range of initial conditions and control-system requirements and, in addition, can utilize the available fuel in a very efficient manner.

RENDEZVOUS↗

Analog Simulation of a Pilot-Controlled Rendezvous

The rendezvous of a pilot-controlled space ferry vehicle with an orbiting space station was simulated in six degrees of freedom. A fixed-base simulator and an analog computer were used. The ferry vehicle was assumed to have a single main thrusting rocket and to be provided with attitude control. Control of the thrust was provided by a rocket throttle quadrant which could provide either proportional or on-off control. The attitude of the vehicle was controlled during the rendezvous with a two-axis, pencil-type side-arm controller and rudder pedals. For the most part rendezvous maneuvers were made with the target satellite in a circular orbit. In addition, an elliptical station orbit was investigated. Tolerable initial conditions, as well as adequate data presentations, were determined. Results of the investigation indicate that a human pilot can rendezvous successfully with the vehicle and instrumentation considered over a wide band of initial conditions. Coplanar conditions are not necessary. Retro-rocket fuel used is not greatly increased by imposing perturbing influences such as rocket-misalignment torques on the rendezvous vehicle. When excessive attitude-control torques are required to maintain the necessary trim attitudes under misalignment influences, the reaction fuel used for this control increases. The time required for a specific rendezvous varies somewhat between pilots. If control of the time for completing the rendezvous is desired, requirements for retrorocket fuel are affected, and an energy-management schedule is required. Continuous variation of the thrust is not necessary. The pilot positions the throttle to obtain a desired level of thrust, and applies bursts of thrust as required. All data were presented on dialed instruments. The quantities required are range and range rate and line-of-sight rates between the vehicle and the station, vehicle attitudes and angular rates, and the angles subtended by the line of sight. For the equipment assumed herein, satellite rendezvous presented no great problem to the pilot.

Brissenden, Roy F.↗

Preheat effects in laser-driven Rayleigh–Taylor instability experiments at intensities greater than $10^{15}$ $\textrm{W}$ $\textrm{cm}^{-2}$ at OMEGA EP and the NIF

The propagation of high-energy X-rays or hot electrons have the potential to alter the initial conditions in experimental target designs, especially at material interfaces, for laser-driven inertial confinement fusion (ICF) and high-energy density (HED) experimental platforms. Hot-electron preheat can drastically modify the initial conditions of experimental targets used to study the deceleration-stage Rayleigh–Taylor instability (RTI) both with and without applied magnetic fields. Therefore, it is necessary to understand and quantify the impact of hot-electron preheat. The hydrodynamic (HD) capabilities in the Ares code are used to study the effects varying levels of preheat can have on RTI evolution. The experimental and computational studies presented in this work demonstrate that at high laser intensities of around or greater than 10 15 W cm −2 , there is hot-electron generation from laser plasma instabilities which induces substantial preheat and impacts the morphology of RTI evolution and even inhibits the intended RTI growth such that it is not observable experimentally. The necessity of better quantifying hot-electron induced preheat and mitigating its impact on such high-intensity direct-drive laser experiments in the future is discussed.

70 PLASMA PHYSICS AND FUSION TECHNOLOGY↗