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NASA NTRSDate not supplied

TPSAS-NF1676L-12725-DND

Uncertainty analysis and robust design - increase confidence and consistency in aerospace vehicle safety predictions by developing improved methods for quantifying and managing uncertainty. Quantifying: uncertainty modeling (model uncertainty based on experimental data, simulations and/or expert opinion) and uncertainty propagation (given uncertainty models of a system’s inputs, how to propagate them through system models, to efficiently evaluate the corresponding system’s outputs?). Managing: robust design (generate designs that robustly accommodate uncertainty) and uncertainty decomposition (identify uncertainties that contribute the most to performance degradation and determine the parameters that should (not) be modeled as uncertain).

Sean P Kenny↗

DOE OSTI2024

Accelerating uncertainty quantification in incremental dynamic analysis using dimension reduction-based surrogate modeling

We propose a surrogate modeling framework based on dimension reduction to facilitate the quantification of seismic risk of structural systems in performance-based earthquake engineering. The framework adopts incremental dynamic analysis (IDA) for addressing hazard variability, and promotes significant computational efficiency improvement for propagating epistemic uncertainties associated with the structural models. It utilizes both linear and nonlinear dimension reduction approaches, equipped with inverse mappings, to learn a functional between the input parameter space (e.g., the epistemic uncertainties of the structure) to the high-dimensional output space created through the IDA implementation across different ground motions and seismic intensity levels. Polynomial chaos expansion is adopted as the surrogate model to learn this functional in the reduced space. A nine-story steel moment-resisting frame with uncertain structural properties is used as a testbed. Furthermore, we select the seismic fragility curves as a measure of the structure’s seismic performance, since it provides an estimate of the probability of entering specified damage states for given levels of ground shaking.

42 ENGINEERING↗

NASA NTRSDate not supplied

Variational Coupled Loads Analysis using the Hybrid Parametric Variation Method

Time-domain coupled loads analysis (CLA)is used to determine the response of a launch vehicle and payload system to transient forces, such as liftoff, engine ignitions and shutdowns, jettison events, and atmospheric flight loads, such as buffet. CLA, using Hurty/Craig-Bampton (HCB)component models, is the accepted method for the establishment of design-level loads for launch systems. However, uncertainty in the component models flows into uncertainty in predicted system results. Uncertainty in the structural responses during launch is a significant concern because small variations in launch vehicle and payload mode shapes and their interactions can result in significant variations in system loads. Uncertainty quantification (UQ)is used to determine statistical bounds on prediction accuracy based on model uncertainty. In this paper uncertainty is treated at the HCB component-model level. In an effort to account for model uncertainties and statistically bound their effect on CLA predictions, this work combines CLA with UQ in a process termed variational coupled loads analysis (VCLA). The modeling of uncertainty using a parametric approach, in which input parameters are represented by random variables, is common, but its major drawback is the resulting uncertainty is limited to the form of the nominal model. Uncertainty in model form is one of the biggest contributors to uncertainty in complex built-up structures. Model-form uncertainty can be represented using a nonparametric approach based on random matrix theory (RMT). In this work, UQ is performed using the hybrid parametric variation (HPV)method, which combines parametric with nonparametric uncertainty at the HCB component model level. The HPV method requires the selection of dispersion values for the HCB fixed-interface (FI)eigenvalues, and the HCB mass and stiffness matrices. The dispersions are based upon component test-analysis modal correlation results. During VCLA, random component models are assembled into an ensemble of random systems using a Monte Carlo (MC)approach. CLA is applied to each of the ensemble members to produce an ensemble of system-level responses for statistical analysis. The proposed methodology is demonstrated through its application to a buffet loads analysis of NASA’s Space Launch System (SLS)during the transonic regime fifty seconds after liftoff. Core stage (CS)section shears and moments are recovered, and statistics are computed.

Uncertainty Quantification↗

DOE OSTI2025

Advancing Multi-Hazard Risk and Safety Considerations for Aging Nuclear Facilities (Revision 1)

This project will demonstrate a multi-hazard time-dependent probabilistic risk assessment (PRA) approach for nuclear facilities considering aging-related deterioration of structures. A generic pressurized water reactor (PWR) reactor subjected to seismic mainshock-aftershock sequences considering the aging of the containment structure will be used as a case study to demonstrate the multi-hazard PRA approach. Using advanced modeling and simulation, seismic mainshock-aftershock fragility functions will be simulated for the containment structure considering aging effects. A multi-hazard PRA model for a generic PWR reactor will be built to quantify the multi-hazard core damage frequency (CDF) and large early release frequency (LERF) with explicit time-dependent modeling of event sequences. To date, the cascading impacts of multi-hazards are not adequately accounted for in the PRA models for nuclear facilities. In addition, for both initial and periodic evaluation of facilities to withstand natural phenomena hazards (NPH), deterioration of the SSCs due to aging and other effects is not adequately considered. By advancing multi-hazard considerations accounting for aging effects, this project will contribute to improved understanding of the safety of aging nuclear facilities. Project outcomes such as the multi-hazard CDF and LERF will also allow facility owners to optimize upgrade and retrofit protocols. This project is divided into two components: (1) advanced modeling and simulations; and (2) multi-hazard PRA. For the first component, Idaho National Laboratory’s (INL) Multi-hazard Analysis for STOchastic time-DOmaiN phenomena (MASTODON) and BlackBear codes will be used to simulate the seismic response and damage of a containment structure under cascading mainshock-aftershock sequences with aging effects. Uncertainties related to the seismic inputs, material parameters, and environmental factors such as temperature and humidity will be identified and propagated to the fragility functions. These fragility functions, which consider aging effects, will be time dependent. The second component will take the fragility information from the first component to build a multi-hazard time-dependent PRA model starting from a generic PWR model to evaluate the multi-hazard CDF and LERF and characterize the associated consequences. For this component, OpenPRA Web Application and SAPHIRE code will be used. Events such as the Fukushima Daiichi accident have highlighted the importance of considering the cascading impacts of multi-hazards for PRA. Moreover, many of the reactors in the current nuclear fleet in the United States (US) are already operating well beyond their initially planned design life, and applications for further extensions to operating licenses are being considered. Therefore, considering multi-hazard effects and aging deterioration in the NPH risk assessment process will contribute to the safety of both existing and future nuclear facilities. Outcomes of this project will thus directly benefit the standards DOE-STD-1020-16 and DOE-HDBK-1224-18.

22 GENERAL STUDIES OF NUCLEAR REACTORS↗

NASA NTRS1993

Analysis of open-loop conical scan pointing error and variance estimators

General pointing error and variance estimators for an open-loop conical scan (conscan) system are derived and analyzed. The conscan algorithm is modeled as a weighted least-squares estimator whose inputs are samples of receiver carrier power and its associated measurement uncertainty. When the assumptions of constant measurement noise and zero pointing error estimation are applied, the variance equation is then strictly a function of the carrier power to uncertainty ratio and the operator selectable radius and period input to the algorithm. The performance equation is applied to a 34-m mirror-based beam-waveguide conscan system interfaced with the Block V Receiver Subsystem tracking a Ka-band (32-GHz) downlink. It is shown that for a carrier-to-noise power ratio greater than or equal to 30 dB-Hz, the conscan period for Ka-band operation may be chosen well below the current DSN minimum of 32 sec. The analysis presented forms the basis of future conscan work in both research and development as well as for the upcoming DSN antenna controller upgrade for the new DSS-24 34-m beam-waveguide antenna.

Alvarez, L. S.↗

DOE OSTI2025

Femtoscopic study of the proton-proton and proton-deuteron systems in heavy-ion collisions at the LHC

This work reports femtoscopic correlations of p – – p ($\overline{p}$ – – $\overline{p}$) and p – – d ($\overline{p}$ – – $\overline{d}$) pairs measured in Pb–Pb collisions at center-of-mass energy per nucleon $\sqrt{s_{NN}}$ = 5.02 TeV in the ALICE Collaboration. A fit to the measured proton-proton correlation functions allows one to extract the dependence of the nucleon femtoscopic radius of the particle-emitting source on the pair transverse mass (m T ) and on the average charge particle multiplicity $\langle$dN ch /dη$\rangle$ 1/3 for three centrality intervals (0–10%, 10 – – 30 %, 30 – – 50 %). In both cases, the expected power-law and linear scalings are observed, respectively. The measured p–d correlations can be described by both two- and three-body calculations, indicating that the femtoscopy observable is not sensitive to the short-distance features of the dynamics of the p-(p-n) system, due to the large inter-particle distances in Pb–Pb collisions at the LHC. Indeed, in this study, the minimum measured femtoscopic source sizes for protons and deuterons have a minimum value at 2.73$^{+0.05}_{–0.05}$ and 3.10$^{+1.04}_{–0.86}$ fm, respectively, for the 30–50% centrality collisions. Moreover, the m T -scaling obtained for the p–p and p–d systems is compatible within 1σ of the uncertainties. These findings provide new input for fundamental studies on the production of light (anti)nuclei under extreme conditions.

73 NUCLEAR PHYSICS AND RADIATION PHYSICS↗

DOE OSTI2022

Bioproducts from high-protein algal biomass: An economic and environmental sustainability review and risk analysis

This report has High-protein algal biomass as an important bio-commodity that has the potential to provide a new source of sustainable protein products. Herein is a critical review that identifies 1) the most relevant sustainability findings related to the processing of proteinaceous algal biomass to higher value protein products and 2) the potential pathways to improve life cycle assessment (LCA) and techno-economic analysis (TEA) metrics, including life-cycle carbon dioxide equivalent (CO 2 eq), life cycle energy, and minimum selling price (MSP) of these products. The critical review of the literature revealed a large variation in model input parameters relating to these metrics. Therefore, a Monte Carlo analysis was conducted to assess the risk associated with these input variations. To understand the uncertainties that propagate into high-protein algae to products’ systems, we reviewed more than 20 state-of-the-art unit operations for algal biomass processing., including cell disruption, protein solubilization, protein precipitation and purification, and protein concentration. We evaluated displacement of proteinaceous products by algal-bioproducts, including ruminant feed, aquaculture feed, protein tablets, and biopolymers and biopolyesters, with prices in the market ranging from 1.9 to 120 $\$$ kg -1 protein. This review realized that the MSP of ruminant and non-ruminant feed ranges from 0.65±0.56 to 2.9±1.1 $\$$ kg -1 protein, and bioplastics’ MSP ranges from 0.97 to 7.0 $\$$ kg -1 protein. Regarding LCA metrics, there is limited research on life cycle energy in proteinaceous biomass concentration and bioproduct systems, reported at 32.7 MJ kg protein -1 , for animal feed displacement. Animal feed emissions in the literature report negative fluxes, representing environmental benefits, as low as -3.7 kgCO 2 eq kg -1 protein and positive fluxes, i.e., global warming potential, as high as 12.8 kgCO 2 eq kg -1 protein. There is limited research on bioplastics life cycle emissions reported at 0.6 kgCO 2 eq kg -1 protein. In general, the studies to date of algae-derived protein bioproducts showed similar life cycle emissions to soybean meals, nylon, polymers, and polystyrenes. Our risk analysis realized that more than 50% of scenarios can result in negative-net life cycle CO 2 eq emissions. This review and risk analysis assess and demonstrate the scenarios that improve economic and environmental sustainability metrics in high-protein algal bioproducts systems.

09 BIOMASS FUELS↗

DOE OSTI2023

Measurements of the branching fractions B ( B ¯ 0 → D * + π - ) and B ( B ¯ 0 → D * + K - ) and tests of QCD factorization

Using (771.6 ± 10.6) × 10 6 $B\overline{B}$ meson pairs recorded by the Belle experiment at the KEKB e + e - collider, we report the branching fractions $\mathscr{B}$($\overline{B}$ 0 → D* + π - ) = (2.62 ± 0.02 ± 0.09 X 10 -3 and $\mathscr{B}$($\overline{B}$ 0 → D* + K - ) = (2.22 ± 0.06 ± 0.08) × 10 -4 ; the quoted uncertainties are statistical and systematic, respectively. A measurement of the ratio of these branching fractions is also presented, R K/π = $\mathscr{B}$($\overline{B}$ → D* + K - )/ $\mathscr{B}$($\overline{B}$ → D* + π - ) = (8.41 ± 0.24 ± 0.13) × 10 -2 , where systematic uncertainties due to the D* + meson reconstruction cancel out. Furthermore, we report a new QCD factorization test based on the measured ratios for $\overline{B}$ → D* + h - and $\overline{B}$ → D* + ℓ - $v$ decays at squared momentum transfer values equivalent to the mass of the h = π or K hadron. The parameters |a 1 (h)| are measured to be |a 1 (π)| = 0.884 ± 0.004 ± 0.003 ± 0.016 and |a 1 (K)| = 0.913 ± 0.019 ± 0.008 ± 0.013, where the last uncertainties account for all external inputs. These values are approximately 15% lower than those expected from theoretical predictions. Subsequently, flavor SU(3) symmetry is tested by measuring the ratios for pions and kaons, |a 1 (K)| 2 /|a 1 (π) 2 | = 1.066 ± 0.042 ± 0.018 ± 0.023, as well as for different particle species. The ratio is consistent with unity and therefore no evidence for SU(3) symmetry breaking effects is found at the 5% precision level.

72 PHYSICS OF ELEMENTARY PARTICLES AND FIELDS↗

DOE OSTI2023

Spin density matrix elements in exclusive $\rho ^0$ meson muoproduction

We report on a measurement of Spin Density Matrix Elements (SDMEs) in hard exclusive $\rho ^0$ meson muoproduction at COMPASS using 160 GeV/c polarised μ + and μ – beams impinging on a liquid hydrogen target. The measurement covers the kinematic range 5.0 GeV/c 2 < W < 17.0 GeV/c 2 , 1.0 (GeV/c) 2 < $\mathrm{Q}$ 2 < 10.0 (GeV/c) 2 and 0.01 (GeV/c) 2 < $p_{\textrm{T}}^2$ < 0.5 (GeV/c) 2 . Here, W denotes the mass of the final hadronic system, $\mathrm{Q}$ 2 the virtuality of the exchanged photon, and $p_{\textrm{T}}$ the transverse momentum of the $\rho ^0$ meson with respect to the virtual-photon direction. The measured non-zero SDMEs for the transitions of transversely polarised virtual photons to longitudinally polarised vector mesons ($\gamma ^*_T \rightarrow V^{ }_L$) indicate a violation of s-channel helicity conservation. Additionally, we observe a dominant contribution of natural-parity-exchange transitions and a very small contribution of unnatural-parity-exchange transitions, which is compatible with zero within experimental uncertainties. The results provide important input for modelling Generalised Parton Distributions (GPDs). In particular, they may allow one to evaluate in a model-dependent way the role of parton helicity-flip GPDs in exclusive $\rho ^0$ production.

72 PHYSICS OF ELEMENTARY PARTICLES AND FIELDS↗

DOE OSTI2026

MAMBA: A Prototype Modern Modular Bubble Chamber for Precision Measurement of Neutrino Nucleus Cross Sections

High precision measurements of neutrino interactions are essential for the success of future neutrino oscillation experiments. Understanding the interaction rate and precise energy spectrum requires understanding of neutrino interactions and nuclear effects. Measuring interactions in a light nuclear target , such as Hydrogen or deuterium, would provide highly valuable input to reduce reduce the uncertainties associated with neutrino-nucleus cross sections, relevant for upcoming experiments like the Deep Underground Neutrino Experiment (DUNE) and Hyper-Kamiokande (Hyper-K). A bubble chamber presents an opportunity to study a light nuclear target using hydrogen in the liquid phase as a working fluid. However historical hydrogen bubble chamber designs if placed in modern neutrino beams would miss a significant fraction of the total number of available interactions. We present a bubble chamber prototype, MAMBA, which will be used to investigate strategies for inexpensively enabling continuous cycling through improved cooling at scale and expanding the active time of historic bubble chambers. MAMBA aims to demonstrate the feasibility of precision neutrino–nucleon measurements at conditions comparable to modern beams.

Martínez Casales, María [Fermilab] (ORCID:00000003↗

DOE OSTI2025

First Measurement of 87 Rb( α , xn ) Cross Sections at Weak r -process Energies in Supernova ν -driven Ejecta to Investigate Elemental Abundances in Low-metallicity Stars

Observed abundances of Z ∼ 40 elements in metal-poor stars vary from star to star, indicating that the rapid and slow neutron capture processes may not contribute alone to the synthesis of elements beyond iron. The weak r-process was proposed to produce Z ∼ 40 elements in a subset of old stars. Thought to occur in the ν-driven ejecta of a core-collapse supernova, ( α, xn ) reactions would drive the nuclear flow toward heavier masses at T = 2−5 GK. However, current comparisons between modeled and observed yields do not bring satisfactory insights into the stellar environment, mainly due to the uncertainties of the nuclear physics inputs where the dispersion in a given reaction rate often exceeds 1 order of magnitude. Involved rates are calculated with the statistical model where the choice of an α -optical-model potential ( α OMP) leads to such a poor precision. The first experiment on 87 Rb( α, xn ) reactions at weak r -process energies is reported here. Total inclusive cross sections were assessed at E c.m. = 8.1−13 MeV (3.7−7.6 GK) with the active target MUlti-Sampling Ionization Chamber. With an N = 50 seed nucleus, the measured values agree with statistical model estimates using the α OMP Atomki-V2. A reevaluated reaction rate was incorporated into new nucleosynthesis calculations, focusing on ν-driven ejecta conditions known to be sensitive to this specific rate. These conditions were found to fail to reproduce the lighter heavy element abundances in metal-poor stars.

79 ASTRONOMY AND ASTROPHYSICS↗

DOE OSTI2020

Sensitivity of meteorological-forcing resolution on hydrologic variables

Projecting the spatiotemporal changes in water resources under a no-analog future climate requires physically based integrated hydrologic models which simulate the transfer of water and energy across the earth's surface. These models show promise in the context of unprecedented climate extremes given their reliance on the underlying physics of the system as opposed to empirical relationships. However, these techniques are plagued by several sources of uncertainty, including the inaccuracy of input datasets such as meteorological forcing. These datasets, usually derived from climate models or satellite-based products, are typically only resolved on the order of tens to hundreds of kilometers, while hydrologic variables of interest (e.g., discharge and groundwater levels) require a resolution at much smaller scales. In this work, a high-resolution hydrologic model is forced with various resolutions of meteorological forcing (0.5 to 40.5 km) generated by a dynamical downscaling analysis from the regional climate model Weather Research and Forecasting (WRF). The Cosumnes watershed, which spans the Sierra Nevada and Central Valley interface of California (USA), exhibits semi-natural flow conditions due to its rare undammed river basin and is used here as a test bed to illustrate potential impacts of various resolutions of meteorological forcing on snow accumulation and snowmelt, surface runoff, infiltration, evapotranspiration, and groundwater levels. Results show that the errors in spatial distribution patterns impact land surface processes and can be delayed in time. Localized biases in groundwater levels can be as large as 5–10 m and 3 m in surface water. Most hydrologic variables reveal that biases are seasonally and spatially dependent, which can have serious implications for model calibration and ultimately water management decisions.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

NASA NTRS1976

Technique for atmospheric rate chemistry calculations

The possibility that predictions of atmospheric photochemistry/transport models are sensitive to uncertainties in reaction rates and other inputs stresses the need for rapid numerical integration schemes in rate photochemistry problems. Reducing the computational burden has a major merit in facilitating sensitivity studies to assess the effect of uncertainties on predicted ozone diminutions from NOx (NO + NO2) in the exhaust plume of SST engines. The paper discusses the validity of an algorithmic approach to integration of rate chemistry problems in combustion, developed by Rubel and Baronti for an approximate calculation of the production rate of the i-th chemical species involved. An analysis of two projected SST engines confirms the validity of the proposed algorithm. Because of the relative arithmetical simplicity, it may be easier to treat diffusion rate chemistry calculations using the Rubel and Baronti approximation than would be possible by other approaches.

Matloff, G. L.↗

NASA NTRS1984

Estimation of spectral reflectance signatures from spectral radiance profiles

This paper presents a technique for converting spectral radiance to the more fundamental quantity of interest, spectral reflectance. A full implementation of the technique requires the availability of radiative transfer software. However, a set of tables (which allows an approximate derivation of reflectance) is included herein, and covers a representative range of environmental parameter values. An error analysis is performed which gives, for an uncertainty in each of the input parameters (solar zenith angle, visibility, sensor altitude, off-nadir viewing angle, background reflectance and surface elevation), the resulting error in derived reflectance. As a demonstration of the technique, several sets of spectral radiance data from the Imperial Valley, California, are presented as spectral reflectances.

Bowker, D. E.↗

NASA NTRS1989

Algorithm for Atmospheric Corrections of Aircraft and Satellite Imagery

A simple and fast atmospheric correction algorithm is described which is used to correct radiances of scattered sunlight measured by aircraft and/or satellite above a uniform surface. The atmospheric effect, the basic equations, a description of the computational procedure, and a sensitivity study are discussed. The program is designed to take the measured radiances, view and illumination directions, and the aerosol and gaseous absorption optical thickness to compute the radiance just above the surface, the irradiance on the surface, and surface reflectance. Alternatively, the program will compute the upward radiance at a specific altitude for a given surface reflectance, view and illumination directions, and aerosol and gaseous absorption optical thickness. The algorithm can be applied for any view and illumination directions and any wavelength in the range 0.48 micron to 2.2 micron. The relation between the measured radiance and surface reflectance, which is expressed as a function of atmospheric properties and measurement geometry, is computed using a radiative transfer routine. The results of the computations are presented in a table which forms the basis of the correction algorithm. The algorithm can be used for atmospheric corrections in the presence of a rural aerosol. The sensitivity of the derived surface reflectance to uncertainties in the model and input data is discussed.

Fraser, Robert S.↗

NASA NTRS1991

Linear quadratic servo control of a reusable rocket engine

The paper deals with the development of a design method for a servo component in the frequency domain using singular values and its application to a reusable rocket engine. A general methodology used to design a class of linear multivariable controllers for intelligent control systems is presented. Focus is placed on performance and robustness characteristics, and an estimator design performed in the framework of the Kalman-filter formalism with emphasis on using a sensor set different from the commanded values is discussed. It is noted that loop transfer recovery modifies the nominal plant noise intensities in order to obtain the desired degree of robustness to uncertainty reflected at the plant input. Simulation results demonstrating the performance of the linear design on a nonlinear engine model over all power levels during mainstage operation are discussed.

Musgrave, Jeffrey L.↗

NASA NTRS1992

Algorithm for atmospheric corrections of aircraft and satellite imagery

A simple and fast atmospheric correction algorithm is described which is used to correct radiances of scattered sunlight measured by aircraft and/or satellite above a uniform surface. The atmospheric effect, the basic equations, a description of the computational procedure, and a sensitivity study are discussed. The program is designed to take the measured radiances, view and illumination directions, and the aerosol and gaseous absorption optical thickness to compute the radiance just above the surface, the irradiance on the surface, and surface reflectance. Alternatively, the program will compute the upward radiance at a specific altitude for a given surface reflectance, view and illumination directions, and aerosol and gaseous absorption optical thickness. The algorithm can be applied for any view and illumination directions and any wavelength in the range 0.48 micron to 2.2 microns. The relation between the measured radiance and surface reflectance, which is expressed as a function of atmospheric properties and measurement geometry, is computed using a radiative transfer routine. The results of the computations are presented in a table which forms the basis of the correction algorithm. The algorithm can be used for atmospheric corrections in the presence of a rural aerosol. The sensitivity of the derived surface reflectance to uncertainties in the model and input data is discussed.

Fraser, R. S.↗

NASA NTRS1999

A Quantitative Study of Oxygen as a Metabolic Regulator

An acute reduction in oxygen (O2) delivery to a tissue is generally associated with a decrease in phosphocreatine, increases in ADP, NADH/NAD, and inorganic phosphate, increased rates of glycolysis and lactate production, and reduced rates of pyruvate and fatty acid oxidation. However, given the complexity of the human bioenergetic system and its components, it is difficult to determine quantitatively how cellular metabolic processes interact to maintain ATP homeostasis during stress (e.g., hypoxia, ischemia, and exercise). Of special interest is the determination of mechanisms relating tissue oxygenation to observed metabolic responses at the tissue, organ, and whole body levels and the quantification of how changes in tissue O2 availability affect the pathways of ATP synthesis and the metabolites that control these pathways. In this study, we extend a previously developed mathematical model of human bioenergetics to provide a physicochemical framework that permits quantitative understanding of O2 as a metabolic regulator. Specifically, the enhancement permits studying the effects of variations in tissue oxygenation and in parameters controlling the rate of cellular respiration on glycolysis, lactate production, and pyruvate oxidation. The whole body is described as a bioenergetic system consisting of metabolically distinct tissue/organ subsystems that exchange materials with the blood. In order to study the dynamic response of each subsystem to stimuli, we solve the ordinary differential equations describing the temporal evolution of metabolite levels, given the initial concentrations. The solver used in the present study is the packaged code LSODE, as implemented in the NASA Lewis kinetics and sensitivity analysis code, LSENS. A major advantage of LSENS is the efficient procedures supporting systematic sensitivity analysis, which provides the basic methods for studying parameter sensitivities (i.e., changes in model behavior due to parameter variation). Sensitivity analysis establishes relationships between model predictions and problem parameters (i.e., initial concentrations, rate coefficients, etc). It helps determine the effects of uncertainties or changes in these input parameters on the predictions, which ultimately are compared with experimental observations in order to validate the model. Sensitivity analysis can identify parameters that must be determined accurately because of their large effect on the model predictions and parameters that need not be known with great precision because they have little or no effect on the solution. This capability may prove to be important in optimizing the design of experiments, thereby reducing the use of animals. This approach can be applied to study the metabolic effects of reduced oxygen delivery to cardiac muscle due to local myocardial ischemia and the effects of acute hypoxia on brain metabolism. Other important applications of sensitivity analysis include identification of quantitatively relevant pathways and biochemical species within an overall mechanism, when examining the effects of a genetic anomaly or pathological state on energetic system components and whole system behavior.

Radhakrishnan, Krishnan↗