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At least 325 records · Page 18

Closure of Earth’s Global Seasonal Cycle of Energy Storage

Abstract The global seasonal cycle of energy in Earth’s climate system is quantified using observations and reanalyses. After removing long-term trends, net energy entering and exiting the climate system at the top of the atmosphere (TOA) should agree with the sum of energy entering and exiting the ocean, atmosphere, land, and ice over the course of an average year. Achieving such a balanced budget with observations has been challenging. Disagreements have been attributed previously to sparse observations in the high-latitude oceans. However, limiting the local vertical integration of new global ocean heat content estimates to the depth to which seasonal heat energy is stored, rather than integrating to 2000 m everywhere as done previously, allows closure of the global seasonal energy budget within statistical uncertainties. The seasonal cycle of energy storage is largest in the ocean, peaking in April because ocean area is largest in the Southern Hemisphere and the ocean’s thermal inertia causes a lag with respect to the austral summer solstice. Seasonal cycles in energy storage in the atmosphere and land are smaller, but peak in July and September, respectively, because there is more land in the Northern Hemisphere, and the land has more thermal inertia than the atmosphere. Global seasonal energy storage by ice is small, so the atmosphere and land partially offset ocean energy storage in the global integral, with their sum matching time-integrated net global TOA energy fluxes over the seasonal cycle within uncertainties, and both peaking in April.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

Metabolic skinflint or spendthrift? Insights into ground sloth integument and thermophysiology revealed by biophysical modeling and clumped isotope paleothermometry

Abstract Remains of megatheres have been known since the 18th -century and were among the first megafaunal vertebrates to be studied. While several examples of preserved integument show a thick coverage of fur for smaller ground sloths living in cold climates such as Mylodon and Nothrotheriops , comparatively very little is known about megathere skin. Assuming a typical placental mammal metabolism, it was previously hypothesized that megatheres would have had little-to-no fur as they achieved giant body sizes. Here the “hairless model of integument” is tested using geochemical analyses to estimate body temperature to generate novel models of ground sloth metabolism, fur coverage, and paleoclimate with Niche Mapper software. The simulations assuming metabolic activity akin to those of modern xenarthrans suggest that sparse fur coverage would have resulted in cold stress across most latitudinal ranges inhabited by extinct ground sloths. Specifically, Eremotherium predominantly required dense 10 mm fur with implications for seasonal changes of coat depth in northernmost latitudes and sparse fur in the tropics; Megatherium required dense 30 mm fur year-round in its exclusive range of cooler, drier climates; Mylodon and Nothrotheriops required dense 10–50 mm fur to avoid thermal stress, matching the integument remains of both genera, and further implying the use of behavioral thermoregulation. Moreover, clumped isotope paleothermometry data from the preserved teeth of four genera of ground sloth yielded reconstructed body temperatures lower than those previously reported for large terrestrial mammals (29 ± 2°–32 ± 3° C). This combination of low metabolisms and thick fur allowed ground sloths to inhabit various environments.

Deak, Michael D.↗

A Conterminous USA-Scale Map of Relative Tidal Marsh Elevation

Abstract Tidal wetlands provide myriad ecosystem services across local to global scales. With their uncertain vulnerability or resilience to rising sea levels, there is a need for mapping flooding drivers and vulnerability proxies for these ecosystems at a national scale. However, tidal wetlands in the conterminous USA are diverse with differing elevation gradients, and tidal amplitudes, making broad geographic comparisons difficult. To address this, a national-scale map of relative tidal elevation ( Z * MHW ), a physical metric that normalizes elevation to tidal amplitude at mean high water (MHW), was constructed for the first time at 30 × 30-m resolution spanning the conterminous USA. Contrary to two study hypotheses, watershed-level median Z * MHW and its variability generally increased from north to south as a function of tidal amplitude and relative sea-level rise. These trends were also observed in a reanalysis of ground elevation data from the Pacific Coast by Janousek et al. (Estuaries and Coasts 42 (1): 85–98, 2019). Supporting a third hypothesis, propagated uncertainty in Z * MHW increased from north to south as light detection and ranging (LiDAR) errors had an outsized effect under narrowing tidal amplitudes. The drivers of Z * MHW and its variability are difficult to determine because several potential causal variables are correlated with latitude, but future studies could investigate highest astronomical tide and diurnal high tide inequality as drivers of median Z * MHW and Z * MHW variability, respectively. Watersheds of the Gulf Coast often had propagated Z * MHW uncertainty greater than the tidal amplitude itself emphasizing the diminished practicality of applying Z * MHW as a flooding proxy to microtidal wetlands. Future studies could focus on validating and improving these physical map products and using them for synoptic modeling of tidal wetland carbon dynamics and sea-level rise vulnerability analyses.

Holmquist, James R. (ORCID:0000000325466766)↗

Potential annual daylighting performance of a high-efficiency daylight redirecting slat system

While the primary role of window attachments is often to moderate glare and solar heat gains, they are also able to provide additional daylight to interior spaces. For this purpose, a variety of daylight-redirecting window systems have been developed over the past 150 years. Fixed reflective systems (slats/light shelves) or prismatic systems that rely on total internal reflection work well under specific solar conditions, but generally sacrifice performance over a much wider range of incident solar angles and sky conditions. Dynamic systems - typically reflective slats - are more responsive to sun angles but have not been able to achieve optimal performance for glare and daylight redirection efficiency. A previous investigation into an adjustable, reflective blind concept first conceived of in the late 1970s showed promise but was not reduced to practice due to lack of adequate simulation and analysis tools. In this paper, this concept is further developed and its energy and visual comfort performance evaluated for four mid-latitude, temperate climates using ray-tracing simulation techniques. Overall, results indicate significant potential lighting energy savings when compared with conventional automated reflective blinds (2.1–4.9 kWh/(m 2 ·a), or 14%–42%, depending on climate and orientation) or, especially, manually-operated matte white venetian blinds (1.4–7.9 kWh/(m 2 ·a), or 9%–54%, depending on climate and orientation), while maintaining acceptable or better visual comfort conditions throughout the interior space.

32 ENERGY CONSERVATION, CONSUMPTION, AND UTILIZATI↗

Projected Changes in Temperature and Precipitation Over the United States, Central America, and the Caribbean in CMIP6 GCMs

The Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 6 (CMIP6) dataset is used to examine projected changes in temperature and precipitation over the United States (U.S.), Central America and the Caribbean. The changes are computed using an ensemble of 31 models for three future time slices (2021–2040, 2041–2060, and 2080–2099) relative to the reference period (1995–2014) under three Shared Socioeconomic Pathways (SSPs; SSP1-2.6, SSP2-4.5, and SSP5-8.5). The CMIP6 ensemble reproduces the observed annual cycle and distribution of mean annual temperature and precipitation with biases between – 0.93 and 1.27 °C and – 37.90 to 58.45%, respectively, for most of the region. However, modeled precipitation is too large over the western and Midwestern U.S. during winter and spring and over the North American monsoon region in summer, while too small over southern Central America. Temperature is projected to increase over the entire domain under all three SSPs, by as much as 6 °C under SSP5-8.5, and with more pronounced increases in the northern latitudes over the regions that receive snow in the present climate. Annual precipitation projections for the end of the twenty-first century have more uncertainty, as expected, and exhibit a meridional dipole-like pattern, with precipitation increasing by 10–30% over much of the U.S. and decreasing by 10–40% over Central America and the Caribbean, especially over the monsoon region. Seasonally, precipitation over the eastern and central subregions is projected to increase during winter and spring and decrease during summer and autumn. Over the monsoon region and Central America, precipitation is projected to decrease in all seasons except autumn. The analysis was repeated on a subset of 9 models with the best performance in the reference period; however, no significant difference was found, suggesting that model bias is not strongly influencing the projections.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

Assessment of CMIP6 Performance and Projected Temperature and Precipitation Changes Over South America

We evaluate the performance of a large ensemble of Global Climate Models (GCMs) from the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 6 (CMIP6) over South America for a recent past reference period and examine their projections of twenty-first century precipitation and temperature changes. The future changes are computed for two time slices (2040–2059 and 2080–2099) relative to the reference period (1995–2014) under four Shared Socioeconomic Pathways (SSPs, SSP1–2.6, SSP2–4.5, SSP3–7.0 and SSP5–8.5). The CMIP6 GCMs successfully capture the main climate characteristics across South America. However, they exhibit varying skill in the spatiotemporal distribution of precipitation and temperature at the sub-regional scale, particularly over high latitudes and altitudes. Future precipitation exhibits a decrease over the east of the northern Andes in tropical South America and the southern Andes in Chile and Amazonia, and an increase over southeastern South America and the northern Andes—a result generally consistent with earlier CMIP (3 and 5) projections. However, most of these changes remain within the range of variability of the reference period. In contrast, temperature increases are robust in terms of magnitude even under the SSP1–2.6. Future changes mostly progress monotonically from the weakest to the strongest forcing scenario, and from the mid-century to late-century projection period. There is an increase in the seasonality of the intra-annual precipitation distribution, as the wetter part of the year contributes relatively more to the annual total. Furthermore, an increasingly heavy-tailed precipitation distribution and a rightward shifted temperature distribution provide strong indications of a more intense hydrological cycle as greenhouse gas emissions increase. The relative distance of an individual GCM from the ensemble mean does not substantially vary across different scenarios. We found no clear systematic linkage between model spread about the mean in the reference period and the magnitude of simulated sub-regional climate change in the future period. Overall, these results could be useful for regional climate change impact assessments across South America.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

Pyridoxal 5'-phosphate dependent reactions: Analyzing the mechanism of aspartate aminotransferase

Enzyme catalysis is the primary activity in energy and information metabolism and enzyme cofactors are key to the catalytic ability of most enzymes. Pyridoxal 5'-phosphate (PLP) cofactor, derived from Vitamin B6, is widely distributed in nature and has significant latitude in catalytic diversity. X-ray crystallography has revealed the structures of diverse PLP dependent enzymes from multiple families. But these structures are incomplete, lacking the positions of protons essential for understanding enzymatic mechanisms. Here, we review the diversity of PLP and discuss the use of neutron crystallography and joint X-ray/neutron refinement of Fold Type I aspartate aminotransferase to visualize the positions of protons in both the internal and external aldimine forms. Strategies used to prepare extremely large crystals required for neutron diffraction and the approach to data refinement including the PLP cofactor are discussed. The observed positions of protons, including one located in a previously unknown low-barrier hydrogen bond, have been used to create more accurate models for computational analysis. The results revealed a new mechanism for the transaminase reaction where hyperconjugation is key to reducing the energy barrier which finally provides a clear explanation of the Dunathan alignment.

37 INORGANIC, ORGANIC, PHYSICAL, AND ANALYTICAL CH↗

Advances in hexagon mesh-based flow direction modeling

Watershed delineation and flow direction representation are the foundations of streamflow routing in spatially distributed hydrologic modeling. A recent study showed that hexagon-based watershed discretization has several advantages compared to the traditional Cartesian (latitude–longitude) discretization, such as uniform connectivity and compatibility with other Earth system model components based on unstructured mesh systems (e.g., oceanic models). Despite these advantages, hexagon-based discretization has not been widely adopted by the current generation of hydrologic models. One major reason is that there is no existing model that can delineate hexagon-based watersheds while maintaining accurate representations of flow direction across various spatial resolutions. In this study, we explored approaches such as spatial resampling and hybrid breaching-filling stream burning techniques to improve watershed delineation and flow direction representation using a newly developed hexagonal mesh watershed delineation model (HexWatershed). We applied these improvements to the Columbia River basin and performed 16 simulations with different configurations. The results show that (1) spatial resampling modulates flow direction around headwaters and provides an opportunity to extract subgrid information; and (2) stream burning corrects the flow directions in mountainous areas with complex terrain features.

58 GEOSCIENCES↗

Solar position confounds the relationship between ecosystem function and vegetation indices derived from solar and photosynthetically active radiation fluxes

Vegetation indices derived from solar and photosynthetically active radiation (PAR) sensors (i.e. radiation derived) have been under-utilized in inferring ecosystem function, despite measurement capability at hundreds of sites. This under-utilization may be attributed to reported mismatches among the seasonality of radiation- and satellite-derived vegetation indices and canopy photosynthesis; herein referred to as measurement biases. In this work, biases in radiation derived reflectance and vegetation indices were assessed using a decadal record of satellite and ground based spectroradiometer data, ecosystem phenology and CO 2 fluxes, and radiation derived vegetation indices (i.e. the Normalized Difference Vegetation Index [NDVI], the two band Enhanced Vegetation Index [EVI2]) from a high latitude tundra site (i.e. Imnaviat). At Imnaviat, we found poor correspondence between the three types of reflectance and vegetation indices, especially during the latter part of the growing season. Radiation derived vegetation indices resulted in incorrect estimates of phenological timing of up to a month and poor relationships with canopy photosynthesis (i.e. Gross Ecosystem Exchange (GEE)). These mismatches were attributed to solar position (i.e. solar zenith and azimuth angle) and a method, based on the diel visible and near-infrared albedo variation, was developed to improve the performance of the vegetation indices. The ability of radiation derived vegetation indices to infer GEE and phenological dates drastically improved once radiation derived vegetation indices were corrected for solar position associated biases at Imnaviat. Moreover, radiation derived vegetation indices became better aligned with MODerate resolution Imaging Spectroradiometer (MODIS) satellite estimates after solar position associated biases were corrected at Imnaviat and at 25 Fluxnet sites (~90 site years) across North America. Corrections developed here provide a way forward in understanding daily ecosystem function or filling large gaps in eddy covariance data at a significant number of Fluxnet sites.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

What explains the year-to-year variation in growing season timing of boreal black spruce forests?

Amplified climate warming in high latitudes is expected to affect growing season timing of the vast boreal biome. It is unclear whether the presence of permafrost (perennially frozen ground) might have an influence on changes in growing season timing. Here, this study examined how different environmental variables explained, either directly or indirectly, the variation in growing season timing of boreal forest stands with and without permafrost. We expected that environmental variables explaining the variation in growing season timing differed or had different explanatory power depending on permafrost presence or absence. The growing season was delineated from daily gross primary productivity (GPP) time series derived from 40 site-year data of net ecosystem carbon dioxide exchange measured with eddy covariance techniques over five black spruce (Picea mariana [Mill.])-dominated boreal forest stands in North America. In permafrost-free forest stands, a combination of start in canopy ‘green-up’ in spring and the timing of air and soil temperature increasing above freezing explained the start-of-season (SOS GPP ). Results from commonality analysis and structural equation modeling suggest that canopy ‘green-up’ and air temperature directly affected SOS GPP in permafrost-free forest stands. In addition, soil temperature acted as mediator for an indirect effect of air temperature on SOS GPP . In contrast, none of the environmental variables, or their combination, explained the variation in SOS GPP in forest stands with permafrost. The explanatory power of environmental variables was more consistent regarding the end-of-season (EOS GPP ). In both, forest stands with and without permafrost, EOS GPP was directly explained by mean soil water content in the fall and the first day of continuous snowpack formation. A better understanding how environmental variables control SOS GPP and EOS GPP in forest stands with and without permafrost will help to refine parameterizations of the boreal biome in Earth system models.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

Growth modeling to evaluate alternative cultivation strategies to enhance national microalgal biomass production

In this paper, we present a model-based assessment of alternative cultivation strategies on algal biomass production within the conterminous United States. Our assessment focuses on two basic cultivation strategies: 1) seasonal rotation of three representative freshwater algal strains that are well suited for warm weather, cold weather, and all-season diverse weather conditions, respectively; and 2) variation between three open pond water depths (15cm, 20cm, and 25cm). The enhanced Biomass Assessment Tool (BAT) is applied on a site-specific, hourly basis at 5,832 North American Land Data Assimilation System Phase 2 1/8° meteorological model grid cells over a 30-year period (1980-2009) to evaluate the operational strategies. Recognizing that resource management decisions may also consider scales beyond the individual site, we also conduct a regional assessment of focused on 7 representative climate zones in the conterminous United States. Results demonstrate that the spatial variability of algal productivity is largely affected by the strain-specific growth response to light and temperature that vary significantly by climate zone and latitude. Therefore, with a limited set of alternative cultivation strategies, the BAT identified the best performing combination of cultivation strategies on a site-specific basis that considerably enhances national annual biomass productivity. Specifically, the appropriate choice of seasonal strain rotation is able to significantly dampen climate-driven seasonal and spatial variability.

59 BASIC BIOLOGICAL SCIENCES↗

Unsupervised Azimuth Estimation of Solar Arrays in Low-Resolution Satellite Imagery through Semantic Segmentation and Hough Transform

This paper explains the use of a convolutional neural network (CNN) to segment solar panels in a satellite image containing solar arrays, and extract associated metadata from the arrays. A novel unsupervised technique is introduced to estimate the azimuth of each individual solar panel from the predicted mask of the convolutional neural network. This pipeline was developed with the aim of extracting necessary metadata for a solar installation, using only a set of latitude–longitude coordinates. Azimuth prediction results for 669 individual solar installations associated with 387 sites located across the United States are provided. A mean average error and median average error of 21.65 degrees and 1.0 degrees were obtained, respectively, when predicting the azimuth of the solar fleet data set, with about 80% of the results within an error of zero degrees of the ground truth azimuth value and about 85% within an error of 25 degrees. The predicted azimuth was then used to estimate the energy conversion of the solar arrays. Results show a 90.9 and 90.6 R-squared value for estimating alternating current (AC) and direct current (DC) energy, respectively, and a mean absolute percentage error (MAPE) of 1.70% in estimating the alternating current (AC) energy using the fully automated algorithm.

14 SOLAR ENERGY↗

Analysis of contrasting aerosol indirect effects in liquid water clouds over the northern part of Arabian Sea

The extensive daily statistics of aerosol properties, cloud properties, and their mutual correlations provide crucial information for better assessing future climate change. Here, in this paper, 14 years (2010–2023) of data from the Moderate Resolution Imaging Spectroradiometer (MODIS) are analyzed over the northern part of Arabian Sea (Latitude: 21°–25° N and Longitude: 62°–68° E) to assess the characteristics of aerosols and clouds and their relationships under different meteorological conditions. When aerosol optical depth (AOD) is less than ~0.7, the observations exhibit a positive correlation between AOD and cloud droplet effective radius (CDR) but negative correlations between AOD and cloud droplet number concentration (CDNC), between AOD and cloud optical depth (COD), between AOD and cloud liquid water path (CLWP), and between AOD and cloud geometrical thickness (H). The corresponding aerosol-cloud correlations change signs when the AOD values are larger than 0.7. However, the single folded positive AOD-cloud fraction (CF) relationship is observed in both AOD regimes. Similar correlations are also observed between precipitable water vapor (PWV) and CDR, CDNC, COD, H, CF and CLWP, together with a positive correlation between PWV and AOD. Further isolation of the environmental effects from aerosol effects by stratifying AOD and cloud data into different LTS and PWV bins shows that the signature of the well-known Twomey effect is observed under high LTS-high PWV conditions, while an opposite effect (anti-Twomey) is observed under low PWV conditions, regardless of LTS values. Additionally, negative correlations between AOD and COD, AOD and CLWP, and AOD and H are observed under low LTS, regardless of PWV conditions, with a slight positive correlation when AOD >0.4 under high LTS and PWV conditions.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

On the relationship between eastern China aerosols and western North Pacific tropical cyclone activity

How aerosols affect the weather and climate system has received increasing attention. This study finds a significant negative correlation between March–May eastern China aerosol optical depth (AOD) and July–November western North Pacific (WNP) tropical cyclone (TC) frequency during 2003–2020. This time period spans when several aerosol reanalyses are available and both Terra and Aqua Moderate Resolution Imaging Spectroradiometer AOD retrievals are assimilated therein. Composite analyses and budget analyses of dynamical genesis potential indices indicate the importance of large-scale environmental factors, especially vertical velocity and vertical wind shear, associated with changes in AOD that in turn modulate changes in WNP TC frequency. Increased eastern China AOD may facilitate negative Pacific meridional mode development via modulation of the westerly jet, which then forces an anticyclonic circulation over the WNP basin. Increased AOD can also directly decrease the inter-hemispheric temperature differential and increases the intra-hemispheric temperature differential between the equator and the mid-latitudes, thus weakening ascending motion and enhancing vertical wind shear over the WNP, especially the southeastern portion of the basin. Further, all of these large-scale environment changes induced by increased eastern China AOD tend to suppress WNP TCs. This study highlights the potential influence of eastern China aerosol loadings on WNP TCs, thus improving our understanding of TC climate variability over the WNP.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

Microwave radiometer, sun-photometer and GNSS multi-comparison of integrated water vapor in Southwestern Europe

This work presents a comparison of integrated water vapor (IWV) data recorded from microwave radiometer (MWR) and sun-photometer (SP) using global navigation satellite system (GNSS) IWV as reference in five mid-latitude sites of Portugal and Spain (2003–2021). A very high correlation is obtained for both instruments (R2 between 0.94 and 0.98), although, while MWR shows a wet bias, SP exhibits a dry one. In addition, a dependence of mean bias error (MBE) and standard deviation (SD) on IWV has been observed, increasing (larger discrepancies) both indices as IWV increases. The solar zenith angle (SZA) dependence is also studied, finding slightly larger discrepancies for the MWR than for SP in comparison with GNSS for very high values of SZA. Finally, a marked seasonal dependence is observed for SP-GNSS differences, modulated by the IWV dependence explained above. In contrast, the seasonal dependence for MWR is quite weaker than it is for SP. Therefore, in spite of the excellent agreement found among the different instruments, it is recommended that: i) the dependence with IWV be studied and corrected to further increase the performance of the instruments, and ii) metadata be used to filter out situations in which the instrument cannot operate properly.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

ARPIST: Provably accurate and stable numerical integration over spherical triangles

Numerical integration on spherical triangles, including the computation of their areas, is a core computation in geomathematics. The commonly used techniques sometimes suffer from instabilities and significant loss of accuracy. We describe a new algorithm, called ARPIST, for accurate and stable integration of functions on spherical triangles. ARPIST is based on an easy-to-implement transformation to the spherical triangle from its corresponding linear triangle via radial projection to achieve high accuracy and efficiency. More importantly, ARPIST overcomes potential instabilities in computing the Jacobian of the transformation, even for poorly shaped triangles that may occur at poles in regular longitude-latitude meshes, by avoiding potential catastrophic rounding errors. We compare our proposed technique with L’Huilier’s Theorem for computing the area of spherical triangles, and also compare it with the recently developed LSQST method (Beckmann et al., 2014) and a radial-basis-function-based technique (Reeger and Fornberg, 2016) for integration of smooth functions on spherical triangulations. In conclusion, our results show that ARPIST enables better or comparable accuracy over previous methods while being easier to implement, significantly faster, and more tolerant of poor element shapes.

97 MATHEMATICS AND COMPUTING↗

Harnessing citizen science to contextualize adaptation mechanism discovery

Species occupying broad geographic regions have evolved multiple mechanisms to regulate phenological characteristics, enabling adaptations to diverse native habitats. By developing computer vision AI to process citizen science observations across native habitats over North America, we uncovered a consistent latitudinal trend of earlier flowering at higher latitudes in warm-season perennial grasses. To explore the underlying mechanisms of adaptation, we conducted common garden experiments with one species (switchgrass) and discovered the opposite latitudinal flowering-time trend. Integration of differential plasticity of GI-Hd1-FTL1 haplotypes of flowering time regulatory genes, haplotype range, and local environmental profiles found that observations from native habitats capture only part of the genotype-environment-phenotype spectrum established in common garden experiments, therefore reconciling the discrepancy. Two mechanisms emerged as key forces shaping current haplotype ranges and influencing future shifts. Our study highlights the power of combining citizen science observations with designed experiments to uncover mechanisms of adaptation across spatiotemporal scales.

FTL1↗

The silicon citizen naturalist

Smartphone-wielding citizen scientists and an AI called FLORIST are transforming ecology at the continental scale. Here, in this issue of Cell, when Tibbs-Cortes et al. pair the crowdsourced data with controlled genetics, they discover how switchgrass times its flowering to outwit both frost and heat, depending on latitude.

Hudson, Matthew E. [University of Illinois at Urba↗