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NASA NTRS2011

Corrosion Protection of Launch Infrastructure and Hardware Through the Space Shuttle Program

Corrosion, the environmentally induced degradation of materials, has been a challenging and costly problem that has affected NASA's launch operations since the inception of the Space Program. Corrosion studies began at NASA's Kennedy Space Center (KSC) in 1966 during the Gemini/Apollo Programs with the evaluation of long-term protective coatings for the atmospheric protection of carbon steel. NASA's KSC Beachside Corrosion Test Site, which has been documented by the American Society of Materials (ASM) as one of the most corrosive, naturally occurring environments in the world, was established at that time. With the introduction of the Space Shuttle in 1981, the already highly corrosive natural conditions at the launch pad were rendered even more severe by the acidic exhaust from the solid rocket boosters. In the years that followed, numerous efforts at KSC identified materials, coatings, and maintenance procedures for launch hardware and equipment exposed to the highly corrosiye environment at the launch pads. Knowledge on materials degradation, obtained by facing the highly corrosive conditions of the Space Shuttle launch environment, as well as limitations imposed by the environmental impact of corrosion control, have led researchers at NASA's Corrosion Technology Laboratory to establish a new technology development capability in the area of corrosion prevention, detection, and mitigation at KSC that is included as one of the "highest priority" technologies identified by NASA's integrated technology roadmap. A historical perspective highlighting the challenges encountered in protecting launch infrastructure and hardware from corrosion during the life of the Space Shuttle program and the new technological advances that have resulted from facing the unique and highly corrosive conditions of the Space Shuttle launch environment will be presented.

Calle, L. M.↗

NASA NTRS2005

Electrochemical Impedance Spectroscopy of Alloys in a Simulated Space Shuttle Launch Environment

Corrosion studies began at NASA/Kennedy Space Center in 1966 during the Gemini/Apollo Programs with the evaluation of long-term protective coatings for the atmospheric protection of carbon steel. An outdoor exposure facility on the beach near the launch pad was established for this purpose at that time. The site has provided over 35 years of technical information on the evaluation of the long-term corrosion performance of many materials and coatings as well as on maintenance procedures. Results from these evaluations have helped NASA find new materials and processes that increase the safety and reliability of our flight hardware, launch structures, and ground support equipment. The launch environment at the Kennedy Space Center (KSC) is extremely corrosive due to the combination of ocean salt spray, heat, humidity, and sunlight. With the introduction of the Space Shuttle in 1981, the already highly corrosive conditions at the launch pad were rendered even more severe by the acidic exhaust from the solid rocket boosters. Over the years, many materials have been evaluated for their corrosion performance under conditions similar to those found at the launch pads. These studies have typically included atmospheric exposure and evaluation with conventional electrochemical methods such as open circuit potential (OCP) measurements, polarization techniques, and electrochemical impedance spectroscopy (EIS). The atmosphere at the Space Shuttle launch site is aggressive to most metals and causes severe pitting in many of the common stainless steel alloys such as type 304L stainless steel (304L SS). A study was undertaken to find a more corrosion resistant material to replace the existing 304L SS tubing. This paper presents the results from atmospheric exposure as well as electrochemical measurements on the corrosion resistance of AL-6XN (UNS N08367) and 254-SMO (UNS S32154). Type 304L SS (UNS S30403) was used as a control. Conditions at the Space Shuttle launch pad were simulated by using a hydrochloric acid (HC1) and alumina (Al203) slurry rinse for the atmospheric exposure and an electrolyte consisting of 3.55% sodium chloride (NaC1) with increased concentrations of hydrochloric acid (HC1) for the electrochemical measurements. The results from both types of measurements revealed the superior corrosion performance of the higher-alloyed materials. Unlike 304L SS, 254-SMO and AL-6XN exhibited a significantly improved resistance to corrosion as the concentration of hydrochloric acid in he 3.55% NaCl electrolyte solution was increased.

Calle, L. M.↗

NASA NTRS2004

Role of EIS in Materials and Coatings Selection for NASA's Launch Facilities

Corrosion studies began at NASA's John F. Kennedy Space Center (KSC) in 1966, during the Gemini/Apollo Programs, with the evaluation of long-term anti-corrosion coatings for carbon steel structures. NASAIKSC's Atmospheric Exposure Test Site was established at that time on the beach near the launch pad. In the years that followed, numerous studies at the site have identified materials, coatings, and maintenance procedures for launch hardware and equipment exposed to the highly corrosive environment at the launch pad. The atmosphere at the launch pad is highly corrosive due to the proximity of the Atlantic Ocean, high heat from rocket exhaust, and since the introduction of the Space Shuttle, the acidic combustion products of the Solid Rocket Boosters (SRBs). Currently, NASAIKSC maintains about $2 billion worth of unique equipment and facilities, not including the orbiters, each valued at about $1.8 billion. Among the items: two launch complexes, two crawler transporters, three mobile launch platforms, and specialized testing equipment. Atmospheric exposure provides very valuable data but it takes a long time and relies on human visual inspection. NASA Technical Standard for Protective Coatings requires 18 months of good performance at the Atmospheric Exposure Test Site for preliminary approval and continued good performance for 5 years for final approval of a coating system. The use of electrochemical impedance spectroscopy (EIS) was introduced at KSC in 1989 as a supplement to the traditional dc electrochemical techniques and atmospheric exposure studies. This paper presents and overview of several projects in which EIS was used in order to select materials and coatings to be used at NASA's launch facilities [1-2].

Calle, Luz Marina↗

NASA NTRS2012

Future Concepts for Integrating the Space Launch System and the Multi-Purpose Crew Vehicle into a Reusable Space Transportation Infrastructure

A space transportation infrastructure is described that utilizes the Space Launch System (SLS), the Mulit-Purpose Crew Vehicle (MPCV), the International Space Station (ISS), and propellant depot servicing platforms to support all foreseeable missions in the Earth-Moon vicinity and deep space out to Mars. The infrastructure utilizes current expendable launch vehicle (ELV) systems such as the Delta IV Heavy, Atlas V, and Falcon 9, for commercial crew, cargo, and propellant launches to a Low-Earth-Orbit (LEO) Depot and/or the ISS. The SLS provides all payload and propellant launches to the Earth-Moon Langrange Point 1 (EML1) Depot to support new reusable in-space transportation vehicles. The ISS or follow-on LEO Depot supports missions to Geosynchronous Earth Orbit (GEO) for satellite servicing and to Earth-Moon L1 for EML1 Depot missions. The EML1 Depot supports Lunar, Earth-Sun L2 (ESL2), Asteroid, and Mars missions. New vehicle design concepts are presented that can be launched utilizing the SLS and current ELV systems. These new reusable vehicle concepts include a Crew Transfer Vehicle (CTV) derived from the MPCV and a reusable Cryogenic Propulsion Stage (CPS) for crew transportation between the LEO Depot, EML1 Depot and missions beyond the Earth-Moon vicinity; a new reusable Lunar Lander for crew transportation between the EML1 Depot and the lunar surface; and a new reusable Deep Space Habitat (DSH) with a CTV to support crew missions from the EML1 Depot to ESL2, Asteroids, and a Mars Orbital Depot. The LEO Depot, EML1 Depot, and Mars Orbital Depot are based on International Space Station (ISS) heritage hardware. Data provided includes the number of launches required for each mission utilizing SLS and current ELV systems (Delta IV Heavy or equivalent) and the approximate vehicle masses and propellant requirements. Also included is a discussion on affordability with ideas on technologies that could reduce the number of launches required and thoughts on how this infrastructure might be implemented incrementally over the next few decades. The potential benefits of this infrastructure include competitive bidding for ELV flights and propellant services, development of new reusable in-space vehicles, and development of a robust multiuse infrastructure that can support many government and commercial missions simultaneously.

Smitherman, David↗

NASA NTRS2012

Development of Modeling Capabilities for Launch Pad Acoustics and Ignition Transient Environment Prediction

This paper presents development efforts to establish modeling capabilities for launch vehicle liftoff acoustics and ignition transient environment predictions. Peak acoustic loads experienced by the launch vehicle occur during liftoff with strong interaction between the vehicle and the launch facility. Acoustic prediction engineering tools based on empirical models are of limited value in efforts to proactively design and optimize launch vehicles and launch facility configurations for liftoff acoustics. Modeling approaches are needed that capture the important details of the plume flow environment including the ignition transient, identify the noise generation sources, and allow assessment of the effects of launch pad geometric details and acoustic mitigation measures such as water injection. This paper presents a status of the CFD tools developed by the MSFC Fluid Dynamics Branch featuring advanced multi-physics modeling capabilities developed towards this goal. Validation and application examples are presented along with an overview of application in the prediction of liftoff environments and the design of targeted mitigation measures such as launch pad configuration and sound suppression water placement.

West, Jeff↗

NASA NTRS2012

Application of System Operational Effectiveness Methodology to Space Launch Vehicle Development and Operations

The Department of Defense (DoD) defined System Operational Effectiveness (SOE) model provides an exceptional framework for an affordable approach to the development and operation of space launch vehicles and their supporting infrastructure. The SOE model provides a focal point from which to direct and measure technical effectiveness and process efficiencies of space launch vehicles. The application of the SOE model to a space launch vehicle's development and operation effort leads to very specific approaches and measures that require consideration during the design phase. This paper provides a mapping of the SOE model to the development of space launch vehicles for human exploration by addressing the SOE model key points of measurement including System Performance, System Availability, Technical Effectiveness, Process Efficiency, System Effectiveness, Life Cycle Cost, and Affordable Operational Effectiveness. In addition, the application of the SOE model to the launch vehicle development process is defined providing the unique aspects of space launch vehicle production and operations in lieu of the traditional broader SOE context that examines large quantities of fielded systems. The tailoring and application of the SOE model to space launch vehicles provides some key insights into the operational design drivers, capability phasing, and operational support systems.

Watson, Michael D.↗

NASA NTRS2012

Vandenberg Air Force Base Upper Level Wind Launch Weather Constraints

The 30th Operational Support Squadron Weather Flight (30 OSSWF) provides comprehensive weather services to the space program at Vandenberg Air Force Base (VAFB) in California. One of their responsibilities is to monitor upper-level winds to ensure safe launch operations of the Minuteman III ballistic missile. The 30 OSSWF tasked the Applied Meteorology Unit (AMU) to analyze VAFB sounding data with the goal of determining the probability of violating (PoV) their upper-level thresholds for wind speed and shear constraints specific to this launch vehicle, and to develop a tool that will calculate the PoV of each constraint on the day of launch. In order to calculate the probability of exceeding each constraint, the AMU collected and analyzed historical data from VAFB. The historical sounding data were retrieved from the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration Earth System Research Laboratory archive for the years 1994-2011 and then stratified into four sub-seasons: January-March, April-June, July-September, and October-December. The maximum wind speed and 1000-ft shear values for each sounding in each subseason were determined. To accurately calculate the PoV, the AMU determined the theoretical distributions that best fit the maximum wind speed and maximum shear datasets. Ultimately it was discovered that the maximum wind speeds follow a Gaussian distribution while the maximum shear values follow a lognormal distribution. These results were applied when calculating the averages and standard deviations needed for the historical and real-time PoV calculations. In addition to the requirements outlined in the original task plan, the AMU also included forecast sounding data from the Rapid Refresh model. This information provides further insight for the launch weather officers (LWOs) when determining if a wind constraint violation will occur over the next few hours on day of launch. The interactive graphical user interface (GUI) for this project was developed in Microsoft Excel using Visual Basic for Applications. The GUI displays the critical sounding data easily and quickly for the LWOs on day of launch. This tool will replace the existing one used by the 30 OSSWF, assist the LWOs in determining the probability of exceeding specific wind threshold values, and help to improve the overall upper winds forecast for the launch customer.

Shafer, Jaclyn A.↗

NASA NTRS2012

Assessing Upper-Level Winds on Day-of-Launch

On the day-or-launch. the 45th Weather Squadron Launch Weather Officers (LWOS) monitor the upper-level winds for their launch customers to include NASA's Launch Services Program (LSP). During launch operations, the payload launch team sometimes asks the LWO if they expect the upper level winds to change during the countdown but the LWOs did not have the capability to quickly retrieve or display the upper-level observations and compare them to the numerical weather prediction model point forecasts. The LWOs requested the Applied Meteorology Unit (AMU) develop a capability in the form of a graphical user interface (GUI) that would allow them to plot upper-level wind speed and direction observations from the Kennedy Space Center Doppler Radar Wind Profilers and Cape Canaveral Air Force Station rawinsondes and then overlay model point forecast profiles on the observation profiles to assess the performance of these models and graphically display them to the launch team. The AMU developed an Excel-based capability for the LWOs to assess the model forecast upper-level winds and compare them to observations. They did so by creating a GUI in Excel that allows the LWOs to first initialize the models by comparing the O-hour model forecasts to the observations and then to display model forecasts in 3-hour intervals from the current time through 12 hours.

Bauman, William H., III↗

NASA NTRS2012

Reliability, Maintainability, and Availability: Consideration During the Design Phase in Ground Systems to Ensure Successful Launch Support

The future of Space Exploration includes missions to the moon, asteroids, Mars, and beyond. To get there, the mission concept is to launch multiple launch vehicles months, even years apart. In order to achieve this, launch vehicles, payloads (satellites and crew capsules), and ground systems must be highly reliable and/or available, to include maintenance concepts and procedures in the event of a launch scrub. In order to achieve this high probability of mission success, Ground Systems Development and Operations (GSDO) has allocated Reliability, Maintainability, and Availability (RMA) requirements to all hardware and software required for both launch operations and, in the event of a launch scrub, required to support a repair of the ground systems, launch vehicle, or payload. This is done concurrently with the design process (30/60/90 reviews).

Gillespie, Amanda M.↗

NASA NTRS2014

NASA's Space Launch System: An Enabling Capability for Discovery

The National Aeronautics and Space Administration's (NASA's) Space Launch System (SLS) Program, managed at the Marshall Space Flight Center, is making progress toward delivering a new capability for human spaceflight and scientific missions beyond Earth orbit. Developed with the goals of safety, affordability, and sustainability in mind, the SLS rocket will launch the Orion Multi-Purpose Crew Vehicle (MPCV), equipment, supplies, and major science missions for exploration and discovery. Making its first uncrewed test flight in 2017 and its first crewed flight in 2021, the SLS will evolve into the most powerful launch vehicle ever flown, capable of supporting human missions into deep space and to Mars. This paper will summarize the planned capabilities of the vehicle, the progress the SLS Program has made in the years since the Agency formally announced its architecture in September 2011, and the path the program is following to reach the launch pad in 2017 and then to evolve the 70 metric ton (t) initial lift capability to 130 t lift capability. The paper will outline the milestones the program has already reached, from developmental milestones such as the manufacture of the first flight hardware and recordbreaking engine testing, to life-cycle milestones such as the vehicle's Preliminary Design Review in the summer of 2013. The paper will also discuss the remaining challenges in both delivering the 70 t vehicle and in evolving its capabilities to the 130 t vehicle, and how the program plans to accomplish these goals. In addition, this paper will demonstrate how the Space Launch System is being designed to enable or enhance not only human exploration missions, but robotic scientific missions as well. Because of its unique launch capabilities, SLS will support simplifying spacecraft complexity, provide improved mass margins and radiation mitigation, and reduce mission durations. These capabilities offer attractive advantages for ambitious science missions by reducing infrastructure requirements, cost, and schedule. A traditional baseline approach for a mission to investigate the Jovian system would require a complicated trajectory with several gravity-assist planetary fly-bys to achieve the necessary outbound velocity. The SLS rocket, offering significantly higher C3 energies, can more quickly and effectively take the mission directly to its destination, providing scientific results sooner and at lower operational cost. The SLS rocket will launch payloads of unprecedented mass and volume, such as "monolithic" telescopes and in-space infrastructure, and will revolutionize science mission planning and design for years to come. As this paper will explain, SLS is making measurable progress toward becoming a global infrastructure asset for robotic and human scouts of all nations by harnessing business and technological innovations to deliver sustainable solutions for space exploration.

Creech, Stephen D.↗

NASA NTRS2014

NASA's Space Launch System: An Enabling Capability for Discovery

Creech, Stephen D.↗

NASA NTRS2014

Small, Low Cost, Launch Capability Development

A recent explosion in nano-sat, small-sat, and university class payloads has been driven by low cost electronics and sensors, wide component availability, as well as low cost, miniature computational capability and open source code. Increasing numbers of these very small spacecraft are being launched as secondary payloads, dramatically decreasing costs, and allowing greater access to operations and experimentation using actual space flight systems. While manifesting as a secondary payload provides inexpensive rides to orbit, these arrangements also have certain limitations. Small, secondary payloads are typically included with very limited payload accommodations, supported on a non interference basis (to the prime payload), and are delivered to orbital conditions driven by the primary launch customer. Integration of propulsion systems or other hazardous capabilities will further complicate secondary launch arrangements, and accommodation requirements. The National Aeronautics and Space Administration's Marshall Space Flight Center has begun work on the development of small, low cost launch system concepts that could provide dedicated, affordable launch alternatives to small, high risk university type payloads and spacecraft. These efforts include development of small propulsion systems and highly optimized structural efficiency, utilizing modern advanced manufacturing techniques. This paper outlines the plans and accomplishments of these efforts and investigates opportunities for truly revolutionary reductions in launch and operations costs. Both evolution of existing sounding rocket systems to orbital delivery, and the development of clean sheet, optimized small launch systems are addressed.

Brown, Thomas↗

NASA NTRS2014

Use of DES Modeling for Determining Launch Availability for SLS

The National Aeronautics and Space Administration (NASA) is developing new capabilities for human and scientific exploration beyond Earth's orbit. This effort includes the Space Shuttle derived Space Launch System (SLS), the Multi-Purpose Crew Vehicle (MPCV) "Orion", and the Ground Systems Development and Operations (GSDO). There are several requirements and Technical Performance Measures (TPMs) that have been levied by the Exploration Systems Development (ESD) upon the SLS, MPCV, and GSDO Programs including an integrated Launch Availability (LA) TPM. The LA TPM is used to drive into the SLS, Orion and GSDO designs a high confidence of successfully launching exploration missions that have narrow Earth departure windows. The LA TPM takes into consideration the reliability of the overall system (SLS, Orion and GSDO), natural environments, likelihood of a failure, and the time required to recover from an anomaly. A challenge with the LA TPM is the interrelationships between SLS, Orion, GSDO and the natural environments during launch countdown and launch delays that makes it impossible to develop an analytical solution for calculating the integrated launch probability. This paper provides an overview of how Discrete Event Simulation (DES) modeling was used to develop the LA TPM, how it was allocated down to the individual programs, and how the LA analysis is being used to inform and drive the SLS, Orion, and GSDO designs to ensure adequate launch availability for future human exploration.

Watson, Mike↗

NASA NTRS2014

Use of DES Modeling for Determining Launch Availability for SLS

The National Aeronautics and Space Administration (NASA) is developing new capabilities for human and scientific exploration beyond Earth's orbit. This effort includes the Space Shuttle derived Space Launch System (SLS), the Orion Multi-Purpose Crew Vehicle (MPCV), and the Ground Systems Development and Operations (GSDO). There are several requirements and Technical Performance Measures (TPMs) that have been levied by the Exploration Systems Development (ESD) upon the SLS, Orion, and GSDO Programs including an integrated Launch Availability (LA) TPM. The LA TPM is used to drive into the SLS, Orion and GSDO designs a high confidence of successfully launching exploration missions that have narrow Earth departure windows. The LA TPM takes into consideration the reliability of the overall system (SLS, Orion and GSDO), natural environments, likelihood of a failure, and the time required to recover from an anomaly. A challenge with the LA TPM is the interrelationships between SLS, Orion, GSDO and the natural environments during launch countdown and launch delays that makes it impossible to develop an analytical solution for calculating the integrated launch probability. This paper provides an overview of how Discrete Event Simulation (DES) modeling was used to develop the LA TPM, how it was allocated down to the individual programs, and how the LA analysis is being used to inform and drive the SLS, Orion, and GSDO designs to ensure adequate launch availability for future human exploration.

Staton, Eric↗

NASA NTRS2014

Application of Fault Management Theory to the Quantitative Selection of a Launch Vehicle Abort Trigger Suite

The theory of System Health Management (SHM) and of its operational subset Fault Management (FM) states that FM is implemented as a "meta" control loop, known as an FM Control Loop (FMCL). The FMCL detects that all or part of a system is now failed, or in the future will fail (that is, cannot be controlled within acceptable limits to achieve its objectives), and takes a control action (a response) to return the system to a controllable state. In terms of control theory, the effectiveness of each FMCL is estimated based on its ability to correctly estimate the system state, and on the speed of its response to the current or impending failure effects. This paper describes how this theory has been successfully applied on the National Aeronautics and Space Administration's (NASA) Space Launch System (SLS) Program to quantitatively estimate the effectiveness of proposed abort triggers so as to select the most effective suite to protect the astronauts from catastrophic failure of the SLS. The premise behind this process is to be able to quantitatively provide the value versus risk trade‐off for any given abort trigger, allowing decision makers to make more informed decisions. All current and planned crewed launch vehicles have some form of vehicle health management system integrated with an emergency launch abort system to ensure crew safety. While the design can vary, the underlying principle is the same: detect imminent catastrophic vehicle failure, initiate launch abort, and extract the crew to safety. Abort triggers are the detection mechanisms that identify that a catastrophic launch vehicle failure is occurring or is imminent and cause the initiation of a notification to the crew vehicle that the escape system must be activated. While ensuring that the abort triggers provide this function, designers must also ensure that the abort triggers do not signal that a catastrophic failure is imminent when in fact the launch vehicle can successfully achieve orbit. That is, the abort triggers must have low false negative rates to be sure that real crew‐threatening failures are detected, and also low false positive rates to ensure that the crew does not abort from non‐crew‐threatening launch vehicle behaviors. The analysis process described in this paper is a compilation of over six years of lessons learned and refinements from experiences developing abort triggers for NASA's Constellation Program (Ares I Project) and the SLS Program, as well as the simultaneous development of SHM/FM theory. The paper will describe the abort analysis concepts and process, developed in conjunction with SLS Safety and Mission Assurance (S&MA) to define a common set of mission phase, failure scenario, and Loss of Mission Environment (LOME) combinations upon which the SLS Loss of Mission (LOM) Probabilistic Risk Assessment (PRA) models are built. This abort analysis also requires strong coordination with the Multi‐Purpose Crew Vehicle (MPCV) and SLS Structures and Environments (STE) to formulate a series of abortability tables that encapsulate explosion dynamics over the ascent mission phase. The design and assessment of abort conditions and triggers to estimate their Loss of Crew (LOC) Benefits also requires in‐depth integration with other groups, including Avionics, Guidance, Navigation and Control(GN&C), the Crew Office, Mission Operations, and Ground Systems. The outputs of this analysis are a critical input to SLS S&MA's LOC PRA models. The process described here may well be the first full quantitative application of SHM/FM theory to the selection of a sensor suite for any aerospace system.

Lo, Yunnhon↗

NASA NTRS2014

NASA Space Launch System: A Cornerstone Capability for Exploration

Under construction today, the National Aeronautics and Space Administration's (NASA) Space Launch System (SLS), managed at the Marshall Space Flight Center, will provide a robust new capability for human and robotic exploration beyond Earth orbit. The vehicle's initial configuration, sched will enable human missions into lunar space and beyond, as well as provide game-changing benefits for space science missions, including offering substantially reduced transit times for conventionally designed spacecraft. From there, the vehicle will undergo a series of block upgrades via an evolutionary development process designed to expedite mission capture as capability increases. The Space Launch System offers multiple benefits for a variety of utilization areas. From a mass-lift perspective, the initial configuration of the vehicle, capable of delivering 70 metric tons (t) to low Earth orbit (LEO), will be the world's most powerful launch vehicle. Optimized for missions beyond Earth orbit, it will also be the world's only exploration-class launch vehicle capable of delivering 25 t to lunar orbit. The evolved configuration, with a capability of 130 t to LEO, will be the most powerful launch vehicle ever flown. From a volume perspective, SLS will be compatible with the payload envelopes of contemporary launch vehicles, but will also offer options for larger fairings with unprecedented volume-lift capability. The vehicle's mass-lift capability also means that it offers extremely high characteristic energy for missions into deep space. This paper will discuss the impacts that these factors - mass-lift, volume, and characteristic energy - have on a variety of mission classes, particularly human exploration and space science. It will address the vehicle's capability to enable existing architectures for deep-space exploration, such as those documented in the Global Exploration Roadmap, a capabilities-driven outline for future deep-space voyages created by the International Space Exploration Coordination Group, which represents 14 of the world's space agencies. In addition, this paper will detail this new rocket's capability to support missions beyond the human exploration roadmap, including robotic precursor missions to other worlds or uniquely high-mass space operation facilities in Earth orbit. As this paper will explain, the SLS Program is currently building a global infrastructure asset that will provide robust space launch capability to deliver sustainable solutions for exploration.

Creech, Stephen D.↗

NASA NTRS2016

Characterizing Epistemic Uncertainty for Launch Vehicle Designs

NASA Probabilistic Risk Assessment (PRA) has the task of estimating the aleatory (randomness) and epistemic (lack of knowledge) uncertainty of launch vehicle loss of mission and crew risk, and communicating the results. Launch vehicles are complex engineered systems designed with sophisticated subsystems that are built to work together to accomplish mission success. Some of these systems or subsystems are in the form of heritage equipment, while some have never been previously launched. For these cases, characterizing the epistemic uncertainty is of foremost importance, and it is anticipated that the epistemic uncertainty of a modified launch vehicle design versus a design of well understood heritage equipment would be greater. For reasons that will be discussed, standard uncertainty propagation methods using Monte Carlo simulation produce counter intuitive results, and significantly underestimate epistemic uncertainty for launch vehicle models. Furthermore, standard PRA methods, such as Uncertainty-Importance analyses used to identify components that are significant contributors to uncertainty, are rendered obsolete, since sensitivity to uncertainty changes are not reflected in propagation of uncertainty using Monte Carlo methods. This paper provides a basis of the uncertainty underestimation for complex systems and especially, due to nuances of launch vehicle logic, for launch vehicles. It then suggests several alternative methods for estimating uncertainty and provides examples of estimation results. Lastly, the paper describes how to implement an Uncertainty-Importance analysis using one alternative approach, describes the results, and suggests ways to reduce epistemic uncertainty by focusing on additional data or testing of selected components.

Novack, Steven D.↗

NASA NTRS2016

NASA's Space Launch System: A New Opportunity for CubeSats

Designed for human exploration missions into deep space, NASA's Space Launch System (SLS) represents a new spaceflight infrastructure asset, enabling a wide variety of unique utilization opportunities. Together with the Orion crew vehicle and ground operations at NASA's Kennedy Space Center in Florida, SLS is a foundational capability for NASA's Journey to Mars. From the beginning of the SLS flight program, utilization of the vehicle will also include launching secondary payloads, including CubeSats, to deep-space destinations. Currently, SLS is making rapid progress toward readiness for its first launch in 2018, using the initial configuration of the vehicle, which is capable of delivering 70 metric tons (t) to Low Earth Orbit (LEO). On its first flight, Exploration Mission-1, SLS will launch an uncrewed test flight of the Orion spacecraft into distant retrograde orbit around the moon. Accompanying Orion on SLS will be 13 CubeSats, which will deploy in cislunar space. These CubeSats will include not only NASA research, but also spacecraft from industry and international partners and potentially academia. Following its first flight and potentially as early as its second, which will launch a crewed Orion spacecraft into cislunar space, SLS will evolve into a more powerful configuration with a larger upper stage. This configuration will initially be able to deliver 105 t to LEO and will continue to be upgraded to a performance of greater than 130 t to LEO. While the addition of the more powerful upper stage will mean a change to the secondary payload accommodations from Block 1, the SLS Program is already evaluating options for future secondary payload opportunities. Early discussions are also already underway for the use of SLS to launch spacecraft on interplanetary trajectories, which could open additional opportunities for CubeSats. This presentation will include an overview of the SLS vehicle and its capabilities, including the current status of progress toward first launch. It will also explain the opportunities the vehicle offers for CubeSats and secondary payloads, including an overview of the CubeSat manifest for Exploration Mission-1 in 2018.

Hitt, David↗