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DOE OSTI2020

Coupling of Spark Plasma Sintering with Advanced Modeling to Enable Process Scale-Up: Presentation to DOE-NE [Slides]

The research goal of this project is to develop at Idaho National Laboratory (INL) a first-of-its-kind Multiphysics Object-Oriented Simulation Environment (MOOSE)-based, multiscale, multiphysics spark plasma sintering (SPS) modeling and simulation code application, termed “Freya.” Freya will simulate the thermo-mechanical-electrical aspects of the SPS fabrication process and will be paired with lower length scale sub-models, such as phase-field, to predict the resulting microstructure. SPS is an advanced manufacturing process that can be used to solve a variety of material manufacturing challenges; however, this process is an extremely challenging problem for modeling and simulation. The SPS process is inherently multiphysics and multi-scale, with the macroscale electro-thermo-mechanical behavior linked intricately to the microstructure evolution of the part being sintered. Accurate modeling and simulation tools, specifically geared towards the SPS process, are needed to predict the influence of the multiple variables involved in the manufacturing process. Modeling and simulation accuracy is achieved and demonstrated through comparison to multiple validation experiments. The validation efforts for Freya include both separate effects and complete multiphysics SPS process experiments. One of the key benefits this Laboratory Directed Research & Development (LDRD) project offers stems from the emphasis placed on experimental validation of the Freya models, both on the individual length scales and of the final coupled multiscale multiphysics simulations. Experimental validation of Freya’s multiscale coupling capability provides the technical credibility necessary for potential future industry and research partners to accept the simulation predictions.

36 MATERIALS SCIENCE↗

NASA NTRS2010

Orbit Determination Toolbox

The Orbit Determination Toolbox is an orbit determination (OD) analysis tool based on MATLAB and Java that provides a flexible way to do early mission analysis. The toolbox is primarily intended for advanced mission analysis such as might be performed in concept exploration, proposal, early design phase, or rapid design center environments. The emphasis is on flexibility, but it has enough fidelity to produce credible results. Insight into all flight dynamics source code is provided. MATLAB is the primary user interface and is used for piecing together measurement and dynamic models. The Java Astrodynamics Toolbox is used as an engine for things that might be slow or inefficient in MATLAB, such as high-fidelity trajectory propagation, lunar and planetary ephemeris look-ups, precession, nutation, polar motion calculations, ephemeris file parsing, and the like. The primary analysis functions are sequential filter/smoother and batch least-squares commands that incorporate Monte-Carlo data simulation, linear covariance analysis, measurement processing, and plotting capabilities at the generic level. These functions have a user interface that is based on that of the MATLAB ODE suite. To perform a specific analysis, users write MATLAB functions that implement truth and design system models. The user provides his or her models as inputs to the filter commands. The software provides a capability to publish and subscribe to a software bus that is compliant with the NASA Goddard Mission Services Evolution Center (GMSEC) standards, to exchange data with other flight dynamics tools to simplify the flight dynamics design cycle. Using the publish and subscribe approach allows for analysts in a rapid design center environment to seamlessly incorporate changes in spacecraft and mission design into navigation analysis and vice versa.

Carpenter, James R.↗

NASA NTRS1987

Reliability modeling of fault-tolerant computer based systems

Digital fault-tolerant computer-based systems have become commonplace in military and commercial avionics. These systems hold the promise of increased availability, reliability, and maintainability over conventional analog-based systems through the application of replicated digital computers arranged in fault-tolerant configurations. Three tightly coupled factors of paramount importance, ultimately determining the viability of these systems, are reliability, safety, and profitability. Reliability, the major driver affects virtually every aspect of design, packaging, and field operations, and eventually produces profit for commercial applications or increased national security. However, the utilization of digital computer systems makes the task of producing credible reliability assessment a formidable one for the reliability engineer. The root of the problem lies in the digital computer's unique adaptability to changing requirements, computational power, and ability to test itself efficiently. Addressed here are the nuances of modeling the reliability of systems with large state sizes, in the Markov sense, which result from systems based on replicated redundant hardware and to discuss the modeling of factors which can reduce reliability without concomitant depletion of hardware. Advanced fault-handling models are described and methods of acquiring and measuring parameters for these models are delineated.

Bavuso, Salvatore J.↗

NASA NTRS1999

The Aviation System Analysis Capability Air Carrier Cost-Benefit Model

To meet its objective of assisting the U.S. aviation industry with the technological challenges of the future, NASA must identify research areas that have the greatest potential for improving the operation of the air transportation system. Therefore, NASA is developing the ability to evaluate the potential impact of various advanced technologies. By thoroughly understanding the economic impact of advanced aviation technologies and by evaluating how the new technologies will be used in the integrated aviation system, NASA aims to balance its aeronautical research program and help speed the introduction of high-leverage technologies. To meet these objectives, NASA is building the Aviation System Analysis Capability (ASAC). NASA envisions ASAC primarily as a process for understanding and evaluating the impact of advanced aviation technologies on the U.S. economy. ASAC consists of a diverse collection of models and databases used by analysts and other individuals from the public and private sectors brought together to work on issues of common interest to organizations in the aviation community. ASAC also will be a resource available to the aviation community to analyze; inform; and assist scientists, engineers, analysts, and program managers in their daily work. The ASAC differs from previous NASA modeling efforts in that the economic behavior of buyers and sellers in the air transportation and aviation industries is central to its conception. Commercial air carriers, in particular, are an important stakeholder in this community. Therefore, to fully evaluate the implications of advanced aviation technologies, ASAC requires a flexible financial analysis tool that credibly links the technology of flight with the financial performance of commercial air carriers. By linking technical and financial information, NASA ensures that its technology programs will continue to benefit the user community. In addition, the analysis tool must be capable of being incorporated into the wide-ranging suite of economic and technical models that comprise ASAC. This report describes an Air Carrier Cost-Benefit Model (CBM) that meets these requirements. The ASAC CBM is distinguished from many of the aviation cost-benefit models by its exclusive focus on commercial air carriers. The model considers such benefit categories as time and fuel savings, utilization opportunities, reliability and capacity enhancements, and safety and security improvements. The model distinguishes between benefits that are predictable and those that occur randomly. By making such a distinction, the model captures the ability of air carriers to reoptimize scheduling and crew assignments for predictable benefits. In addition, the model incorporates a life-cycle cost module for new technology, which applies the costs of nonrecurring acquisitions, recurring maintenance and operation, and training to each aircraft equipment type independently.

Gaier, Eric M.↗

NASA NTRS1991

Multisource Data Integration in Remote Sensing

Papers presented at the workshop on Multisource Data Integration in Remote Sensing are compiled. The full text of these papers is included. New instruments and new sensors are discussed that can provide us with a large variety of new views of the real world. This huge amount of data has to be combined and integrated in a (computer-) model of this world. Multiple sources may give complimentary views of the world - consistent observations from different (and independent) data sources support each other and increase their credibility, while contradictions may be caused by noise, errors during processing, or misinterpretations, and can be identified as such. As a consequence, integration results are very reliable and represent a valid source of information for any geographical information system.

Tilton, James C.↗

NASA NTRS2012

A Bayesian Framework for Reliability Analysis of Spacecraft Deployments

Deployable subsystems are essential to mission success of most spacecraft. These subsystems enable critical functions including power, communications and thermal control. The loss of any of these functions will generally result in loss of the mission. These subsystems and their components often consist of unique designs and applications for which various standardized data sources are not applicable for estimating reliability and for assessing risks. In this study, a two stage sequential Bayesian framework for reliability estimation of spacecraft deployment was developed for this purpose. This process was then applied to the James Webb Space Telescope (JWST) Sunshield subsystem, a unique design intended for thermal control of the Optical Telescope Element. Initially, detailed studies of NASA deployment history, "heritage information", were conducted, extending over 45 years of spacecraft launches. This information was then coupled to a non-informative prior and a binomial likelihood function to create a posterior distribution for deployments of various subsystems uSing Monte Carlo Markov Chain sampling. Select distributions were then coupled to a subsequent analysis, using test data and anomaly occurrences on successive ground test deployments of scale model test articles of JWST hardware, to update the NASA heritage data. This allowed for a realistic prediction for the reliability of the complex Sunshield deployment, with credibility limits, within this two stage Bayesian framework.

Evans, John W.↗

NASA NTRS2014

Identifiability of Additive, Time-Varying Actuator and Sensor Faults by State Augmentation

Recent work has provided a set of necessary and sucient conditions for identifiability of additive step faults (e.g., lock-in-place actuator faults, constant bias in the sensors) using state augmentation. This paper extends these results to an important class of faults which may affect linear, time-invariant systems. In particular, the faults under consideration are those which vary with time and affect the system dynamics additively. Such faults may manifest themselves in aircraft as, for example, control surface oscillations, control surface runaway, and sensor drift. The set of necessary and sucient conditions presented in this paper are general, and apply when a class of time-varying faults affects arbitrary combinations of actuators and sensors. The results in the main theorems are illustrated by two case studies, which provide some insight into how the conditions may be used to check the theoretical identifiability of fault configurations of interest for a given system. It is shown that while state augmentation can be used to identify certain fault configurations, other fault configurations are theoretically impossible to identify using state augmentation, giving practitioners valuable insight into such situations. That is, the limitations of state augmentation for a given system and configuration of faults are made explicit. Another limitation of model-based methods is that there can be large numbers of fault configurations, thus making identification of all possible configurations impractical. However, the theoretical identifiability of known, credible fault configurations can be tested using the theorems presented in this paper, which can then assist the efforts of fault identification practitioners.

Upchurch, Jason M.↗

NASA NTRS2016

Improved Analysis of GW150914 Using a Fully Spin-Precessing Waveform Model

This paper presents updated estimates of source parameters for GW150914, a binary black-hole coalescence event detected by the Laser Interferometer Gravitational-wave Observatory (LIGO) in 2015 [Abbott et al. Phys. Rev. Lett. 116, 061102 (2016).]. Abbott et al. [Phys. Rev. Lett. 116, 241102 (2016).] presented parameter estimation of the source using a 13-dimensional, phenomenological precessing-spin model (precessing IMRPhenom) and an 11-dimensional nonprecessing effective-one-body (EOB) model calibrated to numerical-relativity simulations, which forces spin alignment (nonprecessing EOBNR). Here, we present new results that include a 15-dimensional precessing-spin waveform model (precessing EOBNR) developed within the EOB formalism. We find good agreement with the parameters estimated previously [Abbott et al. Phys. Rev. Lett. 116, 241102 (2016).], and we quote updated component masses of 35(+5)(-3) solar M; and 30(+3)(-4) solar M; (where errors correspond to 90 symmetric credible intervals). We also present slightly tighter constraints on the dimensionless spin magnitudes of the two black holes, with a primary spin estimate is less than 0.65 and a secondary spin estimate is less than 0.75 at 90% probability. Abbott et al. [Phys. Rev. Lett. 116, 241102 (2016).] estimated the systematic parameter-extraction errors due to waveform-model uncertainty by combining the posterior probability densities of precessing IMRPhenom and nonprecessing EOBNR. Here, we find that the two precessing-spin models are in closer agreement, suggesting that these systematic errors are smaller than previously quoted.

Abbott, B. P.↗

DOE OSTI2023

What Machine Learning Can and Cannot Do for Inertial Confinement Fusion

Machine learning methodologies have played remarkable roles in solving complex systems with large data, well-defined input–output pairs, and clearly definable goals and metrics. The methodologies are effective in image analysis, classification, and systems without long chains of logic. Recently, machine-learning methodologies have been widely applied to inertial confinement fusion (ICF) capsules and the design optimization of OMEGA (Omega Laser Facility) capsule implosion and NIF (National Ignition Facility) ignition capsules, leading to significant progress. As machine learning is being increasingly applied, concerns arise regarding its capabilities and limitations in the context of ICF. ICF is a complicated physical system that relies on physics knowledge and human judgment to guide machine learning. Additionally, the experimental database for ICF ignition is not large enough to provide credible training data. Most researchers in the field of ICF use simulations, or a mix of simulations and experimental results, instead of real data to train machine learning models and related tools. They then use the trained learning model to predict future events. This methodology can be successful, subject to a careful choice of data and simulations. However, because of the extreme sensitivity of the neutron yield to the input implosion parameters, physics-guided machine learning for ICF is extremely important and necessary, especially when the database is small, the uncertain-domain knowledge is large, and the physical capabilities of the learning models are still being developed. In this work, we identify problems in ICF that are suitable for machine learning and circumstances where machine learning is less likely to be successful. This study investigates the applications of machine learning and highlights fundamental research challenges and directions associated with machine learning in ICF.

70 PLASMA PHYSICS AND FUSION TECHNOLOGY↗

NASA NTRS2000

Measurement Requirements for Improved Modeling of Arcjet Facility Flows

Current efforts to develop new reusable launch vehicles and to pursue low-cost robotic planetary missions have led to a renewed interest in understanding arc-jet flows. Part of this renewed interest is concerned with improving the understanding of arc-jet test results and the potential use of available computational-fluid- dynamic (CFD) codes to aid in this effort. These CFD codes have been extensively developed and tested for application to nonequilibrium, hypersonic flow modeling. It is envisioned, perhaps naively, that the application of these CFD codes to the simulation of arc-jet flows would serve two purposes: first. the codes would help to characterize the nonequilibrium nature of the arc-jet flows; and second. arc-jet experiments could potentially be used to validate the flow models. These two objectives are, to some extent, mutually exclusive. However, the purpose of the present discussion is to address what role CFD codes can play in the current arc-jet flow characterization effort, and whether or not the simulation of arc-jet facility tests can be used to eva1uate some of the modeling that is used to formu1ate these codes. This presentation is organized into several sections. In the introductory section, the development of large-scale, constricted-arc test facilities within NASA is reviewed, and the current state of flow diagnostics using conventional instrumentation is summarized. The motivation for using CFD to simulate arc-jet flows is addressed in the next section, and the basic requirements for CFD models that would be used for these simulations are briefly discussed. This section is followed by a more detailed description of experimental measurements that are needed to initiate credible simulations and to evaluate their fidelity in the different flow regions of an arc-jet facility. Observations from a recent combined computational and experiment.al investigation of shock-layer flows in a large-scale arc-jet facility are then used to illustrate the current state of development of diagnostic instrumentation, CFD simulations, and general knowledge in the field of arc-jet characterization. Finally, the main points are summarized and recommendations for future efforts are given.

Fletcher, Douglas G.↗

DOE OSTI2021

Validation of the HyRAM+ physics models for use with propane

The Hydrogen Risk Assessment Model Plus (HyRAM+) toolkit combines quantitative risk assessment with simulations of unignited dispersion, ignited turbulent diffusion flames, and indoor accumulation with delayed ignition of fuels. HyRAM+ is differentiated from HyRAM in that it includes models and leak data for other alternate fuels. The models of the physical phenomena need to be validated for each of the fuels in the toolkit. This report shows the validation for propane which is being used as a surrogate for autogas, which is a mixture of propane and butane and used in internal combustion engines in vehicles. For flame length comparisons, five previously published experiments from peer reviewed journals were used to validate our models. The validation looked at flame lengths and flame widths with respect to different leak diameters, mass flow rates, and source pressures. Most of the sources included more than one set of experimental data, which were collected using different methods (CCD cameras, IR visualization etc.). In general, HyRAM+ overpredicts the flame lengths by around 65%. For heat and radiation models, we compared the heat flux and radiation data reported from two different sources to the values calculated by HyRAM+. For higher mass flow rates, the HyRAM+ calculated flame length results gave a better estimate of what is found in the experiments (65% error), but a higher error (85%) is observed between the HyRAM+ calculated lengths and the experimental flame lengthsfor lower mass flows. Some differences can be attributed to outdoor environmental effects (i.e. wind speed) and uncertainties in jet flame shapes. The propane flame trajectory is predicted for a high Reynolds number case with Re = 12,500 and a low Reynolds number case where Re = 2,000. The Re=12,500 case which is momentum dominated matches well with the experimental flame trajectory, but the agreement for the bouancy driven low Reynolds number case is not as good. Dispersion modeling for unignited propane was also analyzed. We compared the mole fraction, mixture fraction, mean velocity, concentration half width, and inverse mass concentration over an axial distance from different credible journals to the values calculated by HyRAM+. The results display good agreement but generally, HyRAM+ predicts a wider profile for mole fraction and mixture fraction experiments. Overall, HyRAM+’s results are reasonable for predicting the flame length, heat flux, flame trajectory, and dispersion for propane and can be used in risk analyses

08 HYDROGEN↗

NASA NTRS2013

New Approaches in Reusable Booster System Life Cycle Cost Modeling

This paper presents the results of a 2012 life cycle cost (LCC) study of hybrid Reusable Booster Systems (RBS) conducted by NASA Kennedy Space Center (KSC) and the Air Force Research Laboratory (AFRL). The work included the creation of a new cost estimating model and an LCC analysis, building on past work where applicable, but emphasizing the integration of new approaches in life cycle cost estimation. Specifically, the inclusion of industry processes/practices and indirect costs were a new and significant part of the analysis. The focus of LCC estimation has traditionally been from the perspective of technology, design characteristics, and related factors such as reliability. Technology has informed the cost related support to decision makers interested in risk and budget insight. This traditional emphasis on technology occurs even though it is well established that complex aerospace systems costs are mostly about indirect costs, with likely only partial influence in these indirect costs being due to the more visible technology products. Organizational considerations, processes/practices, and indirect costs are traditionally derived ("wrapped") only by relationship to tangible product characteristics. This traditional approach works well as long as it is understood that no significant changes, and by relation no significant improvements, are being pursued in the area of either the government acquisition or industry?s indirect costs. In this sense then, most launch systems cost models ignore most costs. The alternative was implemented in this LCC study, whereby the approach considered technology and process/practices in balance, with as much detail for one as the other. This RBS LCC study has avoided point-designs, for now, instead emphasizing exploring the trade-space of potential technology advances joined with potential process/practice advances. Given the range of decisions, and all their combinations, it was necessary to create a model of the original model and use genetic algorithms to explore results. A strong business case occurs when viable paths are identified for an affordable up-front investment, and these paths can credibly achieve affordable, responsive operations, characterized by smaller direct touch labor efforts at the wing level from flight to flight. The results supporting this approach, its potential, and its conclusions are presented here.

Zapata, Edgar↗

NASA NTRS2013

New Approaches in Reuseable Booster System Life Cycle Cost Modeling

Zapata, Edgar↗

DOE OSTI2025

Half-Life and Precision Shape Measurement of the 2⁢𝜈⁢𝛽⁢𝛽 Decay of 130 Te

Here, we present a new measurement of the 2⁢𝜈⁢𝛽⁢𝛽 half-life of 130 Te (𝑇$^{2⁢𝜈}_{1/2}$) using the first complete model of the CUORE data, based on 1038 kg yr of collected exposure. Thanks to optimized data selection, we achieve a factor of two improvement in precision, obtaining 𝑇$^{2⁢𝜈}_{1/2}$ = (9.32⁢$^{+0.05}_{−0.04}$⁢stat⁢ $^{+0.07}_{−0.07}$⁢syst)×10 20 yr. The signal-to-background ratio is increased by 70% compared to our previous results, enabling the first application of the improved 2⁢𝜈⁢𝛽⁢𝛽 formalism to 130 Te . Within this framework, we determine a credibility interval for the effective axial coupling in the nuclear medium as a function of nuclear matrix elements. We also extract values for the higher-order nuclear matrix element ratios: second-to-first and third-to-first. The second-to-first ratio agrees with nuclear model predictions, while the third-to-first ratio deviates from theoretical expectations. These findings provide essential tests of nuclear models and key inputs for future 0⁢𝜈⁢𝛽⁢𝛽 searches.

73 NUCLEAR PHYSICS AND RADIATION PHYSICS↗

DOE OSTI2021

Metrics for evaluating tropical cyclones in climate data

This manuscript describes a software suite that can be used for objective evaluation of tropical cyclones (TCs) in gridded climate data. Using cyclone trajectories derived from 6-hourly data, a comprehensive set of metrics is defined to systematically compare and contrast products to one another. In addition to annual TC climatologies, attention is paid to spatial and temporal patterns of storm occurrence and intensity. Assessment can be performed either on the global scale or regional domains. Simple to visualize ‘scorecards’ allow for rapid credibility assessment. We showcase three key findings enabled by this suite. First, we compare the representation of TCs in seven current-generation global reanalyses and conclude that higher resolution models and those with TC-specific assimilation contain more accurate storm climatologies. Second, using a free-running Earth system model (ESM) we find that full basin refinement is required in variable-resolution configurations to adequately simulate North Atlantic TC frequency. Furthermore, upstream refinement over northern Africa offers little benefit in simulating storm occurrence but spatial genesis patterns are improved. Finally, we show that TCs simulated by ESMs can be highly sensitive to individual parameterizations in climate models, with North Atlantic TC metrics varying greatly depending on version of the Morrison-Gettelman microphysics package.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

NASA NTRS2017

Simulation of the Ozone Monitoring Instrument Aerosol Index Using the NASA Goddard Earth Observing System Aerosol Reanalysis Products

We provide an analysis of the commonly used Ozone Monitoring Instrument (OMI) aerosol index (AI) product for qualitative detection of the presence and loading of absorbing aerosols. In our analysis, simulated top-of-atmosphere (TOA) radiances are produced at the OMI footprints from a model atmosphere and aerosol profile provided by the NASA Goddard Earth Observing System (GEOS-5) Modern-Era Retrospective Analysis for Research and Applications aerosol reanalysis (MERRAero). Having established the credibility of the MERRAero simulation of the OMI AI in a previous paper we describe updates in the approach and aerosol optical property assumptions. The OMI TOA radiances are computed in cloud-free conditions from the MERRAero atmospheric state, and the AI is calculated. The simulated TOA radiances are fed to the OMI aerosol retrieval algorithms, and its retrieved AI (OMAERUV AI) is compared to the MERRAero calculated AI. Two main sources of discrepancy are discussed: one pertaining the OMI algorithm assumptions of the surface pressure, which are generally different from what the actual surface pressure of an observation is, and the other related to simplifying assumptions in the molecular atmosphere radiative transfer used in the OMI algorithms. Surface pressure assumptions lead to systematic biases in the OMAERUV AI, particularly over the oceans. Simplifications in the molecular radiative transfer lead to biases particularly in regions of topography intermediate to surface pressures of 600hPa and 1013.25hPa. Generally, the errors in the OMI AI due to these considerations are less than 0.2 in magnitude, though larger errors are possible, particularly over land. We recommend that future versions of the OMI algorithms use surface pressures from readily available atmospheric analyses combined with high-spatial resolution topographic maps and include more surface pressure nodal points in their radiative transfer lookup tables.

remote sensing↗

NASA NTRS2016

Development and Use of Engineering Standards for Computational Fluid Dynamics for Complex Aerospace Systems

Computational fluid dynamics (CFD) and other advanced modeling and simulation (M&S) methods are increasingly relied on for predictive performance, reliability and safety of engineering systems. Analysts, designers, decision makers, and project managers, who must depend on simulation, need practical techniques and methods for assessing simulation credibility. The AIAA Guide for Verification and Validation of Computational Fluid Dynamics Simulations (AIAA G-077-1998 (2002)), originally published in 1998, was the first engineering standards document available to the engineering community for verification and validation (V&V) of simulations. Much progress has been made in these areas since 1998. The AIAA Committee on Standards for CFD is currently updating this Guide to incorporate in it the important developments that have taken place in V&V concepts, methods, and practices, particularly with regard to the broader context of predictive capability and uncertainty quantification (UQ) methods and approaches. This paper will provide an overview of the changes and extensions currently underway to update the AIAA Guide. Specifically, a framework for predictive capability will be described for incorporating a wide range of error and uncertainty sources identified during the modeling, verification, and validation processes, with the goal of estimating the total prediction uncertainty of the simulation. The Guide's goal is to provide a foundation for understanding and addressing major issues and concepts in predictive CFD. However, this Guide will not recommend specific approaches in these areas as the field is rapidly evolving. It is hoped that the guidelines provided in this paper, and explained in more detail in the Guide, will aid in the research, development, and use of CFD in engineering decision-making.

Lee, Hyung B.↗

NASA NTRS2013

The Practitioner's Dilemma: How to Assess the Credibility of Downscaled Climate Projections

Suppose you are a city planner, regional water manager, or wildlife conservation specialist who is asked to include the potential impacts of climate variability and change in your risk management and planning efforts. What climate information would you use? The choice is often regional or local climate projections downscaled from global climate models (GCMs; also known as general circulation models) to include detail at spatial and temporal scales that align with those of the decision problem. A few years ago this information was hard to come by. Now there is Web-based access to a proliferation of high-resolution climate projections derived with differing downscaling methods.

downscaled projections↗