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At least 325 records · Page 18

ForestFlow: predicting the Lyman-α forest clustering from linear to nonlinear scales

On large scales, the Lyman-α forest provides insights into the expansion history of the Universe, while on small scales, it imposes strict constraints on the growth history, the nature of dark matter, and the sum of neutrino masses. This work introduces ForestFlow, a novel framework that bridges the gap between large- and small-scale analyses, which have traditionally relied on distinct modeling approaches. Using conditional normalizing flows, ForestFlow predicts the two Lyman-α linear biases (b δ and b η ) and six parameters describing small-scale deviations of the three-dimensional flux power spectrum (P 3D ) from linear theory as a function of cosmology and intergalactic medium physics. These are then combined with a Boltzmann solver to make consistent predictions, from arbitrarily large scales down to the nonlinear regime, for P 3D and any other statistics derived from it. Trained on a suite of 30 fixed-and-paired cosmological hydrodynamical simulations spanning redshifts from z = 2 to 4.5, ForestFlow achieves 3 and 1.5% precision in describing P 3D and the one-dimensional flux power spectrum (P 1D ) from linear scales to k = 5 Mpc −1 and k ∥ = 4 Mpc −1 , respectively. Thanks to its conditional parameterization, ForestFlow shows similar performance for ionization histories and two ΛCDM model extensions – massive neutrinos and curvature – even though none of these are included in the training set. This framework will enable full-scale cosmological analyses of Lyman-α forest measurements from the DESI survey.

79 ASTRONOMY AND ASTROPHYSICS↗

Structural Uncertainty in the Sensitivity of Urban Temperatures to Anthropogenic Heat Flux

One key source of uncertainty for weather and climate models is structural uncertainty arising from the fact that these models must simplify or approximate complex physical, chemical, and biological processes that occur in the real world. However, structural uncertainty is rarely examined in the context of simulated effects of anthropogenic heat flux in cities. Using the Weather Research and Forecasting (WRF) model coupled with a single-layer urban canopy model, it is found that the sensitivity of urban canopy air temperature to anthropogenic heat flux can differ by an order of magnitude depending on how anthropogenic heat flux is released to the urban environment. Moreover, varying model structures through changing the treatment of roof-air interaction and the parameterization of convective heat transfer between the canopy air and the atmosphere can affect the sensitivity of urban canopy air temperature by a factor of 4. Urban surface temperature and 2-m air temperature are less sensitive to the methods of anthropogenic heat flux release and the examined model structural variants than urban canopy air temperature, but their sensitivities to anthropogenic heat flux can still vary by as much as a factor of 4 for surface temperature and 2 for 2-m air temperature. Our study recommends using temperature sensitivity instead of temperature response to understand how various physical processes (and their representations in numerical models) modulate the simulated effects of anthropogenic heat flux.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

Sensitivity of Fine‐Resolution Urban Heat Island Simulations to Soil Moisture Parameterization

ABSTRACT Urban areas experience the impact of natural disasters, such as heatwaves and flash floods, disparately in different neighbourhoods across a city. The demand for precise urban hydrometeorological and hydroclimatological modelling to examine this disparity, and the interacting challenges posed by climate change and urbanisation, has thus surged. The Weather Research and Forecasting (WRF) model has served such operational and research purposes for decades. Recent advancements in WRF, including enhanced numerical schemes and sophisticated urban atmospheric‐hydrological parameterizations, have empowered the simulation of urban geophysical processes at high resolution (~1 km), but even this resolution misses significant urban microclimate variability. This study applies the large‐eddy simulations (LES) mode within WRF, coupled with single‐layer urban canopy models (SLUCM), to enable even finer‐scale modelling (150 m) of the Urban Heat Island (UHI) effect in the Baltimore metropolitan area. We run nine scenarios to evaluate various methods of initializing soil moisture and various spinup lead times, and to assess the impact of WRF's Mosaic approach in depicting subgrid‐scale processes. We evaluate the scenarios by comparing the WRF simulated land surface temperature (LST) against Landsat LST and the WRF simulated hourly 2‐m air temperatures (AT) with observations from eight weather stations across the domain. Results underscore the paramount influence of the lead spinup time on the spatiotemporal distribution of simulated soil moisture, consequently shaping WRF's efficacy in predicting the UHI. Furthermore, interpolating soil moisture‐related parameters from the parent for child domain initialization yields a notable reduction in mean and root‐mean‐squared errors. This improvement was particularly evident in simulations with the longest spinup time, affirming the importance of carefully designing the initialization of soil moisture for improved urban temperature predictions.

Talebpour, Mahdad↗

3D reconstruction and neural rendering for adversarial machine learning

While evasion attacks on computer vision systems have been widely studied, creating attacks that remain effective under significant changes in viewpoint continues to be challenging. Traditional approaches often rely on affine transformations of images, but these approaches degrade at larger perspective shifts and often produce unrealistic or ineffective perturbations. Recent methods use differentiable renderers to improve viewpoint robustness, but they typically depend on manually constructed 3D models. We introduce a semi-automated pipeline that generates physically printable and perspective-invariant adversarial patches using only a small set of 2D images. Our method integrates 3D reconstruction, neural rendering, adversarial patch optimization, and an object detection victim model into a unified workflow. We use 2D Gaussian Splatting for high fidelity mesh reconstruction and FlexPara for surface parameterization that produces texture maps suitable for patch editing. Together, these components form a fully differentiable pipeline in PyTorch3D that links texture modification to model outputs, enabling efficient optimization of patches that remain effective across many viewpoints. The complete process, from image capture to patch printing and physical evaluation, can be completed within a few hours. We demonstrate the effectiveness of the resulting patches through attacks on the YOLOv8 object detection model and discuss remaining challenges and opportunities for improving robustness and scalability.

Singhvi, Vivaan [ORNL] (ORCID:0009000586288221)↗

Uniting Surface Properties With Hydrodynamic Roughness in Shallow Overland Flow Models

Describing flow resistance from the properties of an underlying surface is a challenge in surface hydrology. Runoff models must specify a resistance formulation or “roughness scheme”—describing the functional relationship between flow resistance and flow depth/velocity—and its parameters. Uncertainty in runoff predictions derives from both the selected roughness scheme (e.g., Darcy Weisbach, Manning's, or laminar flow equations), and its parameterization with a roughness coefficient (e.g., Manning's n). Both choices are informed by model calibration to data, usually discharge, and, if available, velocity. In this study, a Saint Venant Equation-based runoff model is calibrated to discharge and velocity data from 112 rainfall simulator experiments. The results are used to identify the optimal roughness scheme among four widely-used options for each experiment, and to explore whether surface properties can be used to select the optimal roughness scheme and its coefficient. Among the tested roughness schemes, a transitional flow equation provided the best fit to the plurality of experiments. The most suitable roughness scheme for a given experiment was not related to measured surface properties. Regression models predicted the calibrated roughness coefficients with adjusted values between 0.48 and 0.54, depending on the roughness scheme used. Litter cover was the best predictor of the roughness coefficient, followed by soil cover and average canopy gap size. The results suggest that selection of an optimal roughness scheme based on surface properties alone remains difficult, but that once a scheme is selected, roughness coefficients can be estimated from surface properties.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

Mesoscale Convective Systems Represented in High Resolution E3SMv2 and Impact of New Cloud and Convection Parameterizations

Mesoscale convective systems (MCSs) play an important role in modulating the global hydrological cycle, general circulation, and radiative energy budget. In this study, we evaluate MCS simulations in the second version of U.S. Department of Energy (DOE) Energy Exascale Earth System Model (E3SMv2). E3SMv2 atmosphere model (EAMv2) is run at the uniform 0.25? horizontal resolution. We track MCSs consistently in the model and observations using the PyFLEXTRKR algorithm, which defines MCS based on both cloud-top brightness temperature (Tb) and surface precipitation. Results from using Tb only to define MCS, commonly used in previous studies, are also discussed. Furthermore, sensitivity experiments are performed to examine the impact of new cloud and convection parameterizations developed for EAMv3 on simulated MCSs. Our results show that EAMv2 simulated MCS precipitation is largely underestimated in the tropics and contiguous United States. This is mainly attributed to the underestimated precipitation intensity in EAMv2. In contrast, the simulated MCS frequency becomes more comparable to observations if MCSs are defined only based on cloud-top Tb. The Tb-based MCS tracking method, however, includes many cloud systems with very weak precipitation which conflicts with the MCS definition. This result illustrates the importance of accounting for precipitation in evaluating simulated MCSs. We also find that the new physics parameterizations help increase the relative contribution of convective precipitation to total precipitation in the tropics, but the simulated MCS properties are generally not improved. This suggests that simulating MCSs will remain a challenge for the next version of E3SM.

Zhang, Meng↗

Prescribing the aerosol effective radiative forcing in the Simple Cloud-Resolving E3SM Atmosphere Model v1

Aerosol effective radiative forcing critically influences climate projections but remains poorly constrained. Using the Simple Cloud-Resolving E3SM Atmosphere Model (SCREAM) v1 configuration, we assess the sensitivity of the radiative forcing due to anthropogenic aerosol changes using a simplified prescribed aerosol scheme (SPA) derived from E3SM v3. Nudged simulations at 3 and 12 km horizontal grid spacings reveal a more negative aerosol forcing than the reference 100 km E3SM v3 whence the SPA properties are derived. The resulting globally averaged aerosol forcing signal is largely due to aerosol–cloud interactions and exhibits little overall resolution sensitivity, while hints of resolution sensitivity appear regionally between the 3 and 12 km runs. While the default SPA scheme overestimates cloud droplet dependence on aerosols, parameterization adjustments in the activation process reconcile forcing estimates with the reference model. Our results demonstrate the ability to use a prescribed aerosol scheme to hold aerosol forcing to a desired strength across resolutions.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

Tropical Cyclone Wind Shear-Relative Asymmetry in Reanalyses

Abstract While tropical cyclones (TCs) are axisymmetric vortices to the first order, they often exhibit noteworthy structural asymmetries. These often result from environmental vertical wind shear, which tilts the vortex and induces a wavenumber 1 pattern in the circulation and precipitation fields. Reanalyses and climate models have improved in representing the TC structure and climatology, but their relatively coarse resolution and dependence on parameterized physics cast doubt on their ability to capture the asymmetric TC structure. We perform the most comprehensive process-oriented assessment of TC asymmetry to date in reanalyses. Specifically, we analyze the composite shear-relative TC structure in ERA5 and Climate Forecast System Reanalysis (CFSR), which vary in their resolutions, physical parameterization suites, and data assimilation techniques. These structures are compared with aircraft reconnaissance radar observations. In agreement with the observations, the strongest tangential winds are usually found left-of-shear, while inner core rainfall, ascent, vortex tilt, and low-level inflow are favored directly downshear or in the downshear-left quadrant. Outer rainband convection generally peaks in the downshear-right quadrant. Thermodynamic asymmetries are also apparent, with anomalous low-level moisture right-of-shear, midlevel warmth in the upshear-right quadrant (uptilt), and cloud properties suggestive of a realistic precipitation life cycle from growth to fallout. We also decompose rainfall contributions from the convective parameterization and large-scale cloud schemes and highlight the roles of vorticity advection, buoyancy advection, and diabatic processes in driving asymmetric vertical motions in the inner core and outer rainband regions. Our results suggest that process-level studies of TC asymmetry and TC–wind shear interaction under future warming are viable using climate models. Significance Statement Asymmetries are common in tropical cyclones (TCs), influencing their intensity, track, and hazards. Vertical wind shear often plays a leading-order role in causing these asymmetries. It is uncertain how well asymmetric structures and processes are captured in reanalyses and global climate models (GCMs) with grid spacings of 0.25° and coarser. In this study, we first evaluate TC asymmetry in reanalyses, which have the benefit of being forced by observations. This helps to assess whether the resolutions associated with GCMs sufficiently capture asymmetric structures and processes and motivates upcoming work with free-running GCMs to study how TC asymmetry may change in a warming climate.

Carstens, Jacob D.↗

Separable physics-informed DeepONet: Breaking the curse of dimensionality in physics-informed machine learning

The deep operator network (DeepONet) has shown remarkable potential in solving partial differential equations (PDEs) by mapping between infinite-dimensional function spaces using labeled datasets. However, in scenarios lacking labeled data, the physics-informed DeepONet (PI-DeepONet) approach, which utilizes the residual loss of the governing PDE to optimize the network parameters, faces significant computational challenges, particularly due to the curse of dimensionality. This limitation has hindered its application to high-dimensional problems, making even standard 3D spatial with 1D temporal problems computationally prohibitive. Additionally, the computational requirement increases exponentially with the discretization density of the domain. Here, to address these challenges and enhance scalability for high-dimensional PDEs, we introduce the Separable physics-informed DeepONet (Sep-PI-DeepONet). This framework employs a factorization technique, utilizing sub-networks for individual one-dimensional coordinates, thereby reducing the number of forward passes and the size of the Jacobian matrix required for gradient computations. By incorporating forward-mode automatic differentiation (AD), we further optimize computational efficiency, achieving linear scaling of computational cost with discretization density and dimensionality, making our approach highly suitable for high-dimensional PDEs. We demonstrate the effectiveness of Sep-PI-DeepONet through three benchmark PDE models: the viscous Burgers’ equation, Biot’s consolidation theory, and a parameterized heat equation. Our framework maintains accuracy comparable to the conventional PI-DeepONet while reducing training time by two orders of magnitude. Notably, for the heat equation solved as a 4D problem, the conventional PI-DeepONet was computationally infeasible (estimated 289.35 h), while the Sep-PI-DeepONet completed training in just 2.5 h. These results underscore the potential of Sep-PI-DeepONet in efficiently solving complex, high-dimensional PDEs, marking a significant advancement in physics-informed machine learning.

Neural operator↗

Reduced‐Order Modeling for Linearized Representations of Microphysical Process Rates

Abstract Representing cloud microphysical processes in large scale atmospheric models is challenging because many processes depend on the details of the droplet size distribution (DSD, the spectrum of droplets with different sizes in a cloud). While full or partial statistical moments of droplet size distributions are the typical variables used in bulk models, prognostic moments are limited in their ability to represent microphysical processes across the range of conditions experienced in the atmosphere. Microphysical parameterizations employing prognostic moments are known to suffer from structural uncertainty in their representations of inherently higher dimensional cloud processes, which limit model fidelity and lead to forecasting errors. Here we investigate how data‐driven reduced‐order modeling can be used to learn predictors for microphysical process rates in bulk microphysics schemes in an unsupervised manner from higher dimensional bin distributions. Using simulations characteristic of marine stratiform clouds, we simultaneously learn lower dimensional representations of droplet size distributions and predict the evolution of the microphysical state of the system. Droplet collision‐coalescence, the main process for generating warm rain, is estimated to have an intrinsic dimension of three. This intrinsic dimension provides a lower limit on the number of degrees of freedom needed to accurately represent collision‐coalescence in models. We demonstrate how deep learning based reduced‐order modeling can be used to discover intrinsic coordinates describing the microphysical state of the system, where process rates such as collision‐coalescence are globally linearized. These implicitly learned representations of the DSD retain more information about the DSD than typical moment‐based representations.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

Crowdsourcing the Frontier: Advancing Hybrid Physics‐ML Climate Simulation via a $\$$50,000 Kaggle Competition

Subgrid machine-learning (machine learning [ML]) parameterizations have the potential to introduce a new generation of climate models that incorporate the effects of higher-resolution physics without incurring the prohibitive computational cost associated with more explicit physics-based simulations. However, important issues, ranging from online instability to inconsistent online performance, have limited their operational use for long-term climate projections. To more rapidly drive progress in solving these issues, domain scientists and ML researchers opened up the offline aspect of this problem to the broader ML and data science community with the release of ClimSim, a NeurIPS Data sets and Benchmarks publication, and an associated Kaggle competition. This paper reports on the downstream results of the Kaggle competition by coupling emulators inspired by the winning teams' architectures to an interactive climate model (including full cloud microphysics, a regime historically prone to online instability) and systematically evaluating their online performance. Our results demonstrate that online stability in the low-resolution real-geography setting is reproducible across multiple diverse architectures, which we consider a key milestone. All tested architectures exhibit strikingly similar offline and online biases, though their responses to architecture-agnostic design choices (e.g., expanding the list of input variables) can differ significantly. Multiple Kaggle-inspired architectures achieve state-of-the-art results on certain metrics such as zonal mean bias patterns and global Root Mean Squared Error, indicating that crowdsourcing the essence of the offline problem is one path to improving online performance in hybrid physics-AI climate simulation.

Environmental sciences↗

Revealing the hidden structure of disordered materials by parameterizing their local structural manifold

Abstract Durable interest in developing a framework for the detailed structure of glassy materials has produced numerous structural descriptors that trade off between general applicability and interpretability. However, none approach the combination of simplicity and wide-ranging predictive power of the lattice-grain-defect framework for crystalline materials. Working from the hypothesis that the local atomic environments of a glassy material are constrained by enthalpy minimization to a low-dimensional manifold in atomic coordinate space, we develop a generalized distance function, the Gaussian Integral Inner Product (GIIP) distance, in connection with agglomerative clustering and diffusion maps, to parameterize that manifold. Applying this approach to a two-dimensional model crystal and a three-dimensional binary model metallic glass results in parameters interpretable as coordination number, composition, volumetric strain, and local symmetry. In particular, we show that a more slowly quenched glass has a higher degree of local tetrahedral symmetry at the expense of cyclic symmetry. While these descriptors require post-hoc interpretation, they minimize bias rooted in crystalline materials science and illuminate a range of structural trends that might otherwise be missed.

36 MATERIALS SCIENCE↗

Quarterly Soil Core and Root Analyses from the Missouri Ozarks AmeriFlux (MOFLUX) Site, Ashland, Missouri, 2017-2023

This dataset contains quarterly soil core measurements from the Missouri Ozarks AmeriFlux (MOFLUX) site located at the University of Missouri’s Thomas H. Baskett Wildlife Research and Education Area near Ashland, Missouri. These data will be used to parameterize an ensemble of MOFLUX-optimized soil carbon-nitrogen models, used to simulate carbon (C) and nitrogen (N) cycling responses to future hydroclimatic scenarios and the trajectory of soil C stocks with concomitant forest decline. Beginning in 2017, eight soil cores were collected approximately quarterly near plot 1 of the southeast transect, near the automated soil respiration flux chambers, from 0–15 cm depth. Data are currently available through 2023 (2017-06-14 to 2023-11-13); additional observations will be appended to this dataset as they become available. Cores were analyzed for gravimetric moisture content, pH, total carbon and nitrogen, texture, microbial biomass carbon and nitrogen, and extractable dissolved organic carbon and nitrogen. This dataset contains one data file in comma separate (*.csv) format. Additional metadata are provided: one data dictionary and a file-level metadata file in comma separate (*.csv) format and a user guide in PDF (*.pdf) format.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

Wind Turbine Rotor Design Using High-Fidelity Aerostructural Optimization

Large wind turbines yield more energy but demand careful aeroelastic blade design. Coupled multiphysics design strategies can reduce wind energy costs by exploiting fluid-structure interactions. This work presents the first high-fidelity aerostructural optimization study of a large wind turbine rotor. We use blade-resolved fluid dynamics and structural solvers in a monolithic gradient-based optimization framework to explore steady-state torque and blade mass tradeoffs. The coupled-adjoint approach computes gradients efficiently, enabling the optimization of over 100 structural and geometric parameters simultaneously. Our optimization study modifies a DTU 10 MW benchmark with a simplified structure and isotropic material properties. The tightly coupled optimizations increase torque by 14% while reducing rotor mass by 9% or reduce blade mass by 27% while maintaining torque. Blade-resolved models provide greater design freedom, enabling 5% higher mass reductions than conventional parameterizations at equal torque. This framework paves the way for more detailed high-fidelity optimization studies to complement conventional design approaches.

17 WIND ENERGY↗

A multi‐variable framework for selecting WRF physics configurations at convection‐permitting scales: An Amazon wet‐season case study

Tropical convection over rainforests modulates atmospheric circulation and the energy and hydrological cycles across multiple scales. However, the scarcity of observations still limits our understanding of these processes. Although numerical models are utilized to investigate atmospheric physical processes, their performance depends on the choice of parameterizations and grid resolution. Here, in this work, we introduce and apply a multi‐variable, multi‐physics framework to evaluate and rank the Advanced Research Weather Research and Forecasting (WRF–ARW) configurations at 1‐km resolution over the central Amazon during the wet season. A 48‐member ensemble combines three land‐surface models (LSMs), four planetary boundary layer (PBL), and four microphysics (MP) schemes. Model performance for seven convection‐related near‐surface and boundary‐layer variables is assessed using Taylor diagrams and the Taylor skill score (TSS), analysis of variance (ANOVA)‐based sensitivity metrics, and non‐parametric rank tests. We then construct a combined, weighted TSS to identify configurations that are comparatively robust across variables. Results showed that most configurations reproduce near‐surface temperature, sensible and latent heat fluxes, and boundary‐layer height reasonably well, whereas humidity and rainfall remain challenging. LSM choice has the strongest impact on the surface fluxes and a secondary influence on near‐surface temperature and humidity, PBL schemes dominate boundary‐layer height, and MP schemes exert the largest control on rainfall. No single configuration is optimal for all variables, but the combination of Noah (LSM), Yonsei University (PBL), and Morrison (MP) emerges as the most robust configuration for this case, with the WRF single‐moment six‐class scheme (WSM6) providing a competitive, computationally cheaper MP alternative. The framework is general and can be applied to other regions, seasons, and convective regimes.

Amazon rainforest↗

Detecting outbreaks using a spatial latent field

In this paper, we present a method for estimating the infection-rate of a disease as a spatial-temporal field. Our data comprises time-series case-counts of symptomatic patients in various areal units of a region. We extend an epidemiological model, originally designed for a single areal unit, to accommodate multiple units. The field estimation is framed within a Bayesian context, utilizing a parameterized Gaussian random field as a spatial prior. We apply an adaptive Markov chain Monte Carlo method to sample the posterior distribution of the model parameters condition on COVID-19 case-count data from three adjacent counties in New Mexico, USA. Our results suggest that the correlation between epidemiological dynamics in neighboring regions helps regularize estimations in areas with high variance (i.e., poor quality) data. Using the calibrated epidemic model, we forecast the infection-rate over each areal unit and develop a simple anomaly detector to signal new epidemic waves. Our findings show that anomaly detector based on estimated infection-rates outperforms a conventional algorithm that relies solely on case-counts.

Safta, Cosmin [Sandia National Laboratories (SNL-C↗

Efficient simulation of optical spectra via machine learning and physical decomposition of environmental effects

Simulations of optical spectra can provide key insights to aid experimental interpretation of electronic excitation phenomena. For chromophores in the condensed phase, these spectra, which incorporate the coupling between electronic excitation and molecular and solvent nuclear motions, can be simulated using excitation energies obtained from molecular dynamics simulations of the chromophore and solvent. Here, we present a hybrid scheme that exploits machine learning and physically informed spectral densities to show that as few as 25 ground and excited state energetic gradient calculations can be used to construct models that accurately predict environment-influenced vibronic coupling in optical spectra. We demonstrate our approach for the green fluorescent protein chromophore in water and the cresyl violet chromophore in methanol. We show that our hybrid approach, employing a machine learning model for the high-frequency spectral density and an ab initio parameterized Debye spectral density for the low-frequency, results in a systematic improvement of the optical absorption lineshape, leading to a simple machine learning scheme that can be used for the simulation of spectral densities and optical spectra.

Snider, Andrew [Univ. of California, Merced, CA (U↗

Impacts of sea ice leads on sea salt aerosols and atmospheric chemistry in the Arctic

Abstract. The processes contributing to Arctic cold-season (November–April) sea salt aerosols (SSAs) remain uncertain. Observations from coastal Alaska suggest that emissions from open leads in sea ice, which are not included in climate models, may play a dominant role. Their Arctic-wide significance has not yet been quantified. Here, we create an emission parameterization of SSAs from leads by combining satellite data of lead area (the Advanced Microwave Scanning Radiometer–Earth Observation System (AMSR-E) product) and a chemical transport model (GEOS-Chem) to quantify pan-Arctic SSA emissions from leads during the cold season from 2002 to 2008 and to predict their impacts on atmospheric chemistry, evaluating the results of our simulated SSAs against in situ observations. The AMSR-E product detects large leads with certainty (> 3 km in size), and, hence, our study is limited to quantifying emissions from large leads. Lead emissions vary seasonally and interannually. Simulated total monthly SSA emissions increase by 1.1 %–1.8 % (≥60° N latitude) and 5.6 %–7.5 % (≥75° N) for the 2002–2008 cold seasons. SSA concentrations primarily increase at the location of leads, where standard model concentrations are low. GEOS-Chem overestimates SSA concentrations at Arctic sites compared to ground observations, even when lead emissions are not included, suggesting underestimation of SSA sinks and/or uncertainties in SSA emissions from blowing snow and the open ocean. Multi-year monthly mean surface bromine atom (Br) concentrations increase by 2.8 %–8.8 % due to SSAs from leads for the 2002–2008 cold seasons. Changes in ozone concentrations are negligible. While leads contribute < 10 % to Arctic-wide SSA emissions in the years 2002–2008, these emissions occur in regions of low background aerosol concentrations. Leads may increase in frequency under future climate change, which could increase SSA emissions from leads.

Emme, Erin J. (ORCID:0000000268406352)↗