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Search indexed NASA NTRS and DOE OSTI research on propulsion, heat transfer, battery materials and energy systems. Follow report and document links to the original sources.

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At least 325 records · Page 18
All sourcesNASA NTRSDOE OSTI
DOE OSTI2021

Enhancing the Operational Resilience of Advanced Reactors with Digital Twins by Recurrent Neural Networks

Because of a lack of operational data and uncertainty in evaluation model for abnormal and accident scenarios, the established operating procedures can be biased in characterizing the reactor states and ensuring operational resilience. To reduce uncertainty associated with actual plant conditions, digital twin (DT) technology is suggested to support operator’s decision-making by effectively extracting and using knowledge of the current and future plant states from the knowledge base. This study first builds a knowledge base based on the characterization of issue space and the simulation tool. Next, this study discusses diagnosis and prognosis DTs for enhancing operational resilience by recovering the complete states of reactors and by predicting the future reactor behaviors. Finally, the decision-making module of the control system can determine the optimal control strategy that meets operational goals during loss-of-flow scenarios. To demonstrate and evaluate the DTs capability for supporting the operations of nuclear reactors, this study develops and assesses both the diagnosis and prognosis DTs in a nearly autonomous management and control system for an Experimental Breeder Reactor-II simulator during different loss-of-flow scenarios.

22 GENERAL STUDIES OF NUCLEAR REACTORS↗
DOE OSTI2021

Computational Tools for Additive Manufacture of Tailored Microstructure and Properties

Additive manufacturing has the potential to revolutionize industrial hardware and unlock efficiency gains through the fabrication of geometries and architectures not possible by conventional processing. Currently most additive builds use a single set of process parameters (e.g. laser power and scan speed) which results in a part with a homogenous microstructure that provides a singular performance level. To move beyond this state, Raytheon Technologies Research Center worked to create a set of computational tools to track material evolution through each step of the additive process. Computational fluid dynamics and phase field models for microstructure evolution as a function of processing parameters, and crystal plasticity models fully coupling microstructure and mechanical properties for performance predictions were leveraged to establish a connection between additive parameters and the final microstructure. This framework was utilized to tailor spatially-varying mechanical properties in a part by appropriately controlling the microstructure evolution during the additive process. Specifically, a turbine blade was 3D printed from nickel superalloy IN718 using laser powder bed fusion with coarse grains in the airfoil section which experiences the highest temperatures and is creep limited while finer grains were printed in the root of the blade which experience higher stresses but at lower temperatures and is therefore fatigue limited. The benefit of being able to intentionally insert coarse grains in the high temperature region of the blade was showcased with a microstructure sensitive creep model that indicates longer creep life for coarser grains.

20 FOSSIL-FUELED POWER PLANTS↗
NASA NTRS2012

A CloudSat Perspective of the Atmospheric Water Cycle and Precipitation: Recent Progress and Grand Challenges

Summary Global - mean precipitation - is controlled by Earth's energy balance and is a quantifiable consequence of the water vapor feedback. Predictability rests on the degree to which the water vapor feedback is predictable. Regional scale - to a significant extent, changes are shaped by atmospheric circulation changes but we do not know the extent to which regional scale changes are predictable. The impacts of changes to atmospheric circulation on regional scale water cycle changes can be dramatic. Process - scale - significant biases to the CHARACTER of precipitation (frequency and intensity) is related to how the precipitation process is parameterized in models. Aerosol - We still do not know the extent to which the water cycle is influenced by aerosol but anecdotal evidence is building. The character of precipitation is affected by the way aerosol influence clouds and thus affects the forcing of the climate system through the albedo effect. Observations - we still have a way to go and need to approach the problem in a more integrated way (tie clouds, aerosol and precipitation together and then link to soil moisture, etc). Globally our capabilities seriously lag behind the science and model development.

terrestrial water cycles↗
DOE OSTI2020

Machine learning for natural resource assessment: An application to the blind geothermal systems of Nevada

A study is underway to apply machine learning methods to evaluate natural resource potential. In particular, we are considering the search for blind geothermal systems in Nevada. Beginning with the data and experience from the previous Nevada play fairway analysis project, we are building models in TensorFlow/Keras and gaining experience toward predicting the geothermal resource potential as a probability map. During the first year of this project we have encountered several issues particular to using geological and geophysical data sets with these tools. Through an illustrative example we develop a promising workflow for future use as more data become available and are analyzed.

15 GEOTHERMAL ENERGY↗
DOE OSTI2026

N 2 Onet: a global collaborative network facilitating advances in measurement, modeling, and mitigation of agricultural soil nitrous oxide emissions

Nitrogen (N) fertilizer supports global food production, but its use and overuse drive emissions of nitrous oxide (N 2 O), a potent and long-lived greenhouse gas. Understanding the drivers of N 2 O fluxes remains elusive, making it difficult to predict emissions in time and space and to develop and evaluate ways to lower emissions through management. Major scientific uncertainties underlying the understanding of the drivers of N 2 O fluxes identified in a workshop of N 2 O emissions experts include poor process-based understanding of controls on soil N 2 O emissions in the field; insufficient data to reduce uncertainty in N 2 O budgets from the field to regional scales, including N 2 O emission measurements and importantly, field-scale N balances; and high uncertainty in model predictions of soil N 2 O emissions across environmental and management conditions. To reduce these uncertainties, we present the concept of N 2 Onet, a global collaborative initiative to accelerate advances in N 2 O measurement, analyses, and mitigation. N 2 Onet will serve as an observational network of supersites with multi-scale measurements; a database hub for N 2 O flux and ancillary data; and a catalyst for community building, information sharing, and training. By coalescing and coordinating the global community of researchers, N 2 Onet will provide a roadmap for reducing N 2 O emissions from agriculture worldwide.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2025

Optimizing Hydronic Heating for Comfort and Performance in Multifamily Housing

Inefficient control settings in multifamily boilers often lead to substantial energy and cost penalties. To address this, a Fault Detection and Diagnostic (FDD) tool was developed to automate data analysis and identify operational faults such as suboptimal outdoor temperature sensor placement, misconfigured outdoor air reset (OAR) curves, excess boiler cycling, and domestic hot water (DHW) setpoint errors. By comparing pre- and post-implementation periods and applying engineering models, the tool quantifies energy savings and reduces manual analysis time by over 90%. Testing on over 100 monitored sites and a targeted subset of 12 buildings showed an average 11% energy savings from remote optimization; further validation across 19 OAR curve changes confirmed the tool’s accuracy, predicting actual savings within ±5% for most cases. Simple payback can be under three years for many multifamily buildings, though rising hardware, labor, and fuel costs create uncertainties, and decarbonization goals increasingly shift focus to electrification. The FDD tool remains invaluable for optimizing existing boilers, enhancing future electrification measures, and adapting to new technologies by refining building load estimates. In doing so, it supports both near-term efficiency and long-term transitions to low-carbon alternatives, ensuring buildings achieve substantial cost and energy benefits throughout their system lifecycles.

32 ENERGY CONSERVATION, CONSUMPTION, AND UTILIZATI↗
DOE OSTI2022

Real-Time Optimization Workflow Status Update

Economically optimal and safe operation of integrated energy systems (IES) requires optimization at many different time scales. A real-time optimization (RTO) workflow will attempt to maximize revenue and minimize operational costs on a time scale of minutes to hours. Such a workflow requires the use of a digital twin (DT), which is a virtual representation of a physical system. The DT is updated using real-time data from the physical system, and serves as a model in an optimization framework. The optimization results are then sent back to the physical system to complete the loop. This report details the progress made in developing building blocks for a DT/RTO framework. The Risk Analysis Virtual Environment (RAVEN) platform within the Framework for Optimization of Resources and Economics (FORCE) tool suite can perform many of the tasks required for building a DT and performing RTO. The first item of this report details RAVEN enhancements that enable RAVEN workflows to be run in various environments. Data communication between the physical system and its DT is essential for successful RTO. This includes preprocessing real-time data, loading data into a data warehouse, and querying the stored data. The second section of this report describes the progress made in implementing an adapter in Python in order for Deep Lynx to handle the data communication. Typical dispatch optimization frameworks are built on linear programming (LP). The prototype RTO workflow developed in this report uses an LP problem as a part of a receding-horizon- or economic model predictive control (EMPC) based optimization. The third section of this report details the framework of an RTO workflow in which the system consists of a simple electrical storage device. A DT can be built from a reduced-order model (ROM). Integrating a ROM into a typical LP optimization framework has been challenging because most optimization packages require the user to write algebraic expressions for the system model. The final section of this report shows how an externally built RAVEN ROM can be integrated in an RTO framework by using the Python package Pyomo. This demonstrates the RTO workflow capability from a software-only perspective and is an important step in demonstrating the capability to implement an RTO workflow for a physical system.

97 MATHEMATICS AND COMPUTING↗
NASA NTRSDate not supplied

Evaluating the Efficacy of Conditional Variational Autoencoders in Generating Synthetic Single Nuclei RNA-Seq Data for Space Biology Research

Astronauts are subject to unique stressors during spaceflight, leading to changes in their cellular function. However, neither astronauts nor model organisms respond the same to spaceflight, and research implicates a contribution of omics components in differential responses. Understanding how gene expression affects astronaut health is critical for the success of long-term space missions, prompting interest in developing personalized predictive models leveraging artificial intelligence (AI) and machine learning (ML) techniques. Developing such models requires extensive data, which is challenging to obtain and share. This study explores the use of conditional variational autoencoders (CVAEs) to synthetically generate single-nuclei RNA-seq (snRNA-seq) data. CVAEs build on standard variational autoencoders (VAEs) by conditioning data generation on covariates like sample identity and mission parameters, enhancing the relevance of generated data for specific contexts. For our work, we built two CVAEs with varying degrees of sparsity to optimize both interpretability and generative power. We train and validate models on existing snRNA-seq data collected from the brain tissue of mice subjected to spaceflight conditions and their ground control counterparts. We evaluate model performance using statistical tests and visualizations to compare synthetic data to real data. We aim to demonstrate that these prototype CVAE architectures could be used in future space biology work and that this is a method worth further exploring.

Sarah Golts↗
DOE OSTI2022

Photodiode-based machine learning for optimization of laser powder bed fusion parameters in complex geometries

We report the quality of parts produced through laser powder bed fusion additive manufacturing can be irregular, with complex geometries sometimes exhibiting dimensional inaccuracies and defects. For optimal part quality, laser process parameters should be selected carefully prior to printing and adjusted during the print if necessary. This is challenging since approaches to control and optimize the build parameters need to take into account the part geometry, the material, and the complex physics of laser powder bed fusion. This work describes a data-driven approach using experimental diagnostics for the optimization of laser process parameters prior to printing. A training dataset is generated by collecting high speed photodiode signal data while printing simple parts containing key geometry features with various process parameter strategies. Supervised learning approaches are employed to train both a forward model and an inverse model. The forward model takes as inputs track-wise geometry features and laser parameters and outputs the photodiode signal along the scan path. The inverse model takes as inputs the geometry features and photodiode signal and predicts the laser parameters. Given the part geometry and a desired photodiode signal, the inverse model can thus determine the required laser parameters. Two test parts which contain defect-prone features are used to assess the validity of the inverse model. The use of the model leads to improved part quality (higher dimensional accuracy, reduced dross, reduced distortion) for both test geometries.

36 MATERIALS SCIENCE↗
DOE OSTI2026

Anomaly Detection for Online Monitoring of Thermocouple Sensors in the Advanced Test Reactor

This study explores data-driven anomaly detection methods to analyze sensor fail- ures in the Advanced Gas Reactor (AGR) nuclear fuel irradiation experiments. Specifically, we examine failures of thermocouples (TCs), which are critical for mon- itoring and controlling in-reactor temperatures during operation. Failures were pri- marily observed during abrupt power transitions and manifested as sensor drop-outs, drifts, or unexplained behavior. We applied three time-series analysis techniques— rolling mean smoothing, matrix profile, and vector auto-regression (VAR)—to de- tect anomalies in TC data prior to failure events. The rolling mean method effec- tively highlighted deviations aligned with reported failures, while the matrix profile provided partial early warning but sometimes flagged normal fluctuations during power-down periods. VAR shows potential in capturing multivariate dependencies but requires further calibration. A rare case of TC drift was also documented, which did not result in failure, underscoring the challenge of building predictive models with sparse positive examples. Our findings demonstrate that traditional statistical tools can aid anomaly detection but have limited predictive power without richer training data. We propose future directions including synthetic data generation, real- time surrogate modeling, and multi-modal feature integration. This work provides a foundation for applying robust anomaly detection frameworks to mission-critical sensor systems in experimental settings.

11 - NUCLEAR FUEL CYCLE AND FUEL MATERIALS↗
NASA NTRS2016

Feasibility of Varying Geo-Fence Around an Unmanned Aircraft Operation Based on Vehicle Performance and Wind

Managing trajectory separation is critical to ensuring accessibility, efficiency, and safety in the unmanned airspace. The notion of geo-fences is an emerging concept, where distance buffers enclose individual trajectories and areas of operation in order to manage the airspace. Currently, the Air Traffic Management system for commercial travel defines static distance buffers around the aircraft; however, commercial UASs are envisioned to operate in significantly closer proximity to other UAS requiring a geo-fence for spacing operations. The geo-fence size can be determined based on vehicle performance characteristics, state of the airspace, weather, and other unforeseen events such as emergency or disaster response. Calculation of the geo-fence size could be determined as part of pre-flight planning and during real-time operations. A largely non-homogeneous fleet of UASs will be operating in low altitude and will likely be commercially developed. Due to intellectual property concerns, the operators may not provide detailed specifications of the control system to UTM. In addition, the huge variety of UAS makes modeling each control system prohibitive and flight data for these vehicles may not exist. Therefore, a generalized, simple geo-fence sizing algorithm must be developed such that it does not rely on detailed knowledge of the vehicle control system, accounts for the presence of urban winds, and is sufficiently accurate. In this work, two simple models are investigated to determine its feasibility as an adequate means for calculating the geo-fence size. The vehicle data used in this work are provided by UAS manufactures who have partnered with NASA's UTM project and some publicly available websites. The first model utilizes wind data processed from the NOAA HRRR (Hourly Rapid Refresh) product and Sonar Annemometer data provided by San Jose State. The second model utilizes OpenFOAM which is a CFD code used to generate a wind field for flow around a single building. The key vehicle performance parameters can include UAS response time to disturbances, command to actuation latency, control system rate limits, time to recovery to desired path, and aerodynamics. It was found that the first model provides an initial understanding of geo-fence sizing, but does not provide enough accuracy to provide UTM with an efficient means of scheduling vehicles. The results of the second model reveal that modeling UAS controls systems with a linearized plant and gain scheduled PID controller does not allow capture the UAS flight dynamics within a significant envelope of the wind disturbances.

uncertainty↗
DOE OSTI2022

Confronting the water potential information gap

Water potential directly controls the function of leaves, roots and microbes, and gradients in water potential drive water flows throughout the soil–plant–atmosphere continuum. Notwithstanding its clear relevance for many ecosystem processes, soil water potential is rarely measured in situ, and plant water potential observations are generally discrete, sparse, and not yet aggregated into accessible databases. These gaps limit our conceptual understanding of biophysical responses to moisture stress and inject large uncertainty into hydrologic and land-surface models. Here, we outline the conceptual and predictive gains that could be made with more continuous and discoverable observations of water potential in soils and plants. We discuss improvements to sensor technologies that facilitate in situ characterization of water potential, as well as strategies for building new networks that aggregate water potential data across sites. Here, we end by highlighting novel opportunities for linking more representative site-level observations of water potential to remotely sensed proxies. Together, these considerations offer a road map for clearer links between ecohydrological processes and the water potential gradients that have the ‘potential’ to substantially reduce conceptual and modelling uncertainties.

58 GEOSCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2022

Development and Validation of Algorithms That Analyze Communicating Thermostat Data to Identify Enclosure Retrofit Opportunities

Annual energy savings of up to $\$ 4$ to $\$ 5$ billion could be achieved nationwide through basic insulation and heating system retrofits of existing homes. However, current utility energy efficiency programs are costly and challenging to scale. Customer acquisition occurs primarily through energy bill mailers, mass media, and online advertising that lack specificity about home-specific retrofit opportunities, expected energy savings, and cost-effectiveness. Specific retrofit opportunities are identified via on-site home energy assessments (HEAs) that are inconvenient to homeowners, expensive, and of variable accuracy. We developed computational algorithms that automatically analyze communicating thermostat (CT) heating data that could be used to increase the customer uptake of insulation and air sealing energy conservation measures (ECMs) by identifying homes with the most significant retrofit opportunities, estimating post-retrofit energy savings, and formulating home-specific outreach. The algorithms are based on an extended second-order grey-box model that characterizes a building’s thermal response using lumped elements, coupled with an empirical model of infiltration that accounts for both wind and stack effects. The basic parameters of the model correspond to actual physical parameters of the home, i.e., the home’s overall R-value of and the building envelope ACH50. Unlike the conventional approach, which estimates model parameters based on the best fit to the observed time-dependent room temperature, our approach derives correlations between the daily heating system runtime and temperature difference (indoor-outdoor) that are more robust to data quality issues in real-world applications. We also used HEA data for algorithm development and validation. With the help of our utility partners, Eversource and National Grid, we obtained data sets for hundreds of Massachusetts homes. For each home, these data sets included three sets of information anonymized by the utility: (1) CT data (HVAC runtime, room temperature, and, for some vendors, outdoor temperature and wind speed) collected by the CT vendor (one of three) over a heating season, (2) HEA report performed by the HEA vendor (same vendor for all homes), (3) Monthly utility gas bills coincident with the CT data (3 to 24 per home, depending on availability). For some homes, we also obtained blower-door test results. Initially, we applied the algorithms developed to homes with a single CT and then extended them to homes with two CTs by using an equivalent home approach. Finally, we developed algorithms for prediction of energy savings and a methodology of comparing our predictions with those generated by HEAs. The main technical results indicate that we can reliably identify homes with insulation and/or air sealing retrofit opportunities and provide accurate savings predictions. Our hypothesis is that the algorithms could be applied to utility energy efficiency programs to identify homes that could realize significant energy savings from insulation and/or air sealing retrofits. This information could then be used to reach out to those homes with highly customized outreach, thereby delivering increased program energy savings and cost-effectiveness. This would: Significantly increase the uptake rate of on-site HEAs, and Significantly increase the fraction of HEAs resulting in ECM implementation. To test these hypotheses, we designed and conducted a randomized controlled trial (RCT). The RCT results suggest that personal messaging leads to a two- to five-fold increase in the HEA uptake rate.

32 ENERGY CONSERVATION, CONSUMPTION, AND UTILIZATI↗
DOE OSTI2025

Meeting Global Health Needs via Infectious Disease Forecasting: Development of a Reliable Data-Driven Framework

Infectious diseases (IDs) have a significant detrimental impact on global health. Timely and accurate ID forecasting can result in more informed implementation of control measures and prevention policies. To meet the operational decision-making needs of real-world circumstances, we aimed to build a standardized, reliable, and trustworthy ID forecasting pipeline and visualization dashboard that is generalizable across a wide range of modeling techniques, IDs, and global locations. We forecasted 6 diverse, zoonotic diseases (brucellosis, campylobacteriosis, Middle East respiratory syndrome, Q fever, tick-borne encephalitis, and tularemia) across 4 continents and 8 countries. We included a wide range of statistical, machine learning, and deep learning models (n=9) and trained them on a multitude of features (average n=2326) within the One Health landscape, including demography, landscape, climate, and socioeconomic factors. The pipeline and dashboard were created in consideration of crucial operational metrics—prediction accuracy, computational efficiency, spatiotemporal generalizability, uncertainty quantification, and interpretability—which are essential to strategic data-driven decisions. While no single best model was suitable for all disease, region, and country combinations, our ensemble technique selects the best-performing model for each given scenario to achieve the closest prediction. For new or emerging diseases in a region, the ensemble model can predict how the disease may behave in the new region using a pretrained model from a similar region with a history of that disease. The data visualization dashboard provides a clean interface of important analytical metrics, such as ID temporal patterns, forecasts, prediction uncertainties, and model feature importance across all geographic locations and disease combinations. As the need for real-time, operational ID forecasting capabilities increases, this standardized and automated platform for data collection, analysis, and reporting is a major step forward in enabling evidence-based public health decisions and policies for the prevention and mitigation of future ID outbreaks.

60 APPLIED LIFE SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2020

Theoretical insight into thermodynamics of particle-based crystallization

Crystallization process often does not follow the monomer-by-monomer addition pathway, as described by classical nucleation theory. Instead, initial step may involve the formation of larger building blocks, such as crystalline or amorphous nanoparticles, droplets, clusters, complexes or oligomers, which subsequently undergo assembly into a crystal. These multistep crystallization processes are ubiquitous in mineral formation and biomineralization. In materials synthesis utilizing non-classical crystallization pathways is particularly attractive as the restriction on which crystalline faces can grow is lifted in a multistep crystallization process adding to the versatility of materials architectures that can be obtained. Predicting the outcomes of non-classical crystallization through the understanding of the control parameters influencing crystallization pathways is an important and challenging task essential for utilizing the full potential of non-classical crystallization in the design of functional materials. Here, the current status of the development of a predictive theoretical framework for modeling non-classical crystallization is reviewed.

Sushko, Maria L.↗
DOE OSTI2024

Materials Characterization, Prediction, and Control Project: Characterization of 316L Stainless Steel after Solid Phase Processing using Ultrasonic NDE Method

The Pacific Northwest National Laboratory undertook the Materials Characterization, Prediction, and Control Laboratory Directed Research and Development Project to advance understanding of nuclear material processing and enable multifold acceleration in the development and qualification of new material systems produced via advanced manufacturing methods, such as solid phase processing, for use in national security and advanced energy applications (Smith 2021). A motivation of the Materials Characterization, Prediction, and Control Project was to demonstrate ultrasonic testing as a nondestructive evaluation method to complement traditional destructive methods for characterizing material microstructure with emphasis on grain size determination using a method that may have future applications for real-time inline process monitoring. The objective of the work described in this report is to establish the process and an analysis method for measuring grain sizes of polycrystalline metals with ultrafine grains using ultrasonic shear wave backscattering, building on prior studies on coarser-grained material. The work involves five tasks: Measured ultrasonic backscattering experimentally for a series of 316L stainless steel specimens with various grain sizes made by friction stir processing. Calculated ultrasonic backscattering coefficients from experimental data based on a physical measurement model. Measured ground truth grain sizes of the specimens from electron backscatter diffraction grain boundary images using a generalization of the ASTM E112 (ASTM 2021) intercept method. Built a curve of ultrasonic backscattering coefficients versus the ground truth intercept-based grain sizes to determine the correlation between mean grain sizes and ultrasonic measurements. Demonstrated the ability of using the correlation curve to deduce grain sizes with measured ultrasonic backscattering coefficients for a few 316L stainless steel specimens whose grain sizes were unknown beforehand but were targeted to be an extrapolation to larger grain sizes than used to formulate the correlation curves. Experimental procedures and computational algorithms are developed and validated for these tasks. This work establishes an ultrasonic technique for characterizing material microstructure with ultrafine grains that are often resulted by solid-phase processing. The technique is nondestructive, and it has the potential to be used for real time inline process monitoring. This work successfully demonstrates the viability of an ultrasonic nondestructive evaluation method for microstructural characterization of material having ultrafine grain structure (as small as 1?mm) and produced by an advanced manufacturing method. This includes a demonstration of the method to extrapolate to other conditions. While not demonstrated here, the method is expected to be viable for in-line, or near-inline, process monitoring in advanced manufacturing applications with suitable consideration for access of instrumentation to the material being manufactured.

316 L Stainless Steel↗
DOE OSTI2023

Aemulus $\nu$: precise predictions for matter and biased tracer power spectra in the presence of neutrinos

Here we present the Aemulusν simulations: a suite of 150 (1.05 h -1 Gpc) 3 N-body simulations with a mass resolution of 3.51 × 10 10 Ω cb /0.3 h -1 M ⊙ in a wνCDM cosmological parameter space. The simulations have been explicitly designed to span a broad range in σ8 to facilitate investigations of tension between large scale structure and cosmic microwave background cosmological probes. Neutrinos are treated as a second particle species to ensure accuracy to 0.5 eV, the maximum neutrino mass that we have simulated. By employing Zel'dovich control variates, we increase the effective volume of our simulations by factors of 10-10 5 depending on the statistic in question. As a first application of these simulations, we build new hybrid effective field theory and matter power spectrum surrogate models, demonstrating that they achieve ≤ 1% accuracy for k ≤ 1 hMpc -1 and 0 ≤ z ≤ 3, and ≤ 2% accuracy for k ≤ 4 hMpc -1 for the matter power spectrum. We publicly release the trained surrogate models, and estimates of the surrogate model errors in the hope that they will be broadly applicable to a range of cosmological analyses for many years to come.

79 ASTRONOMY AND ASTROPHYSICS↗
DOE OSTI2025

Understanding plasma turbulence through exact coherent structures

Plasma turbulence is a key challenge in understanding transport phenomena in magnetically confined plasmas. This work presents a generalized framework to analyze plasma turbulence that utilizes periodic orbit theory. In periodic orbit theory, doubly periodic solutions (coherent structures) of the governing equation(s) serve as building blocks of the considered turbulent dynamics. To illustrate the concept and method, the particularly simple Kuramoto–Sivashinsky (referred to here as LMRT for the original authors: LaQuey, Mahajan, Rutherford, and Tang) trapped-ion mode toy model is used. By applying numerical optimization techniques to the LMRT equation, we extract coherent spacetime patterns that represent the library of allowable fundamental structures of the equation. These structures provide a framework to systematically describe turbulence as a composition of recurrent solutions, revealing an underlying order within chaotic plasma motion. Although illustrated here using the simplified LMRT model for clarity, this framework provides a general strategy that can be extended to more complex and realistic models of plasma turbulence, including gyrokinetic systems. This offers a new method for predicting and potentially controlling transport processes in fusion plasmas by providing a bridge between nonlinear dynamical systems theory and plasma physics in the form of a generalized framework with which to analyze and understand spatially extended nonlinear partial differential equations.

70 PLASMA PHYSICS AND FUSION TECHNOLOGY↗