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At least 325 records · Page 18
All sourcesNASA NTRSDOE OSTI
DOE OSTI2026

Multi-model analysis of the impact of water vapor on the radiative forcing of volcanic aerosols after the 2022 Hunga Eruption

On 15 January 2022, the Hunga volcano eruption released unprecedented amounts of water vapor into the atmosphere alongside a modest amount of SO 2 . In this work we analyse results from multiple Earth system models as part of the Hunga Tonga-Hunga Ha'apai Volcano Impact Model Observation Comparison Project. Our results show a good model agreement over the climatic outcomes of the eruption, overall indicating a significant negative radiative forcing from the Hunga eruption. The multi-model mean of global instantaneous radiative forcing averaged over 2022–2023 is estimated at −0.19 ± 0.06 W m −2 at the top-of-atmosphere (TOA), and −0.16 ± 0.06 W m −2 at the surface. Simulations with free-running meteorology and climatological sea surface temperatures and sea ice yield a global mean TOA forcing of −0.14 ± 0.10 W m −2 across two models for the first 2 years, decreasing to −0.09 ± 0.10 W m −2 on average between 2022 and 2027. However, these global values may be underestimated by about 50 %, considering that recent SO 2 injection retrievals suggest nearly twice the amount than the 0.5 Tg-SO 2 used in the protocol. We also find that the contribution from added stratospheric water vapor is minimal and that the injected SO 2 and the resulting formation of stratospheric sulfate dominate the radiative forcing. However, water vapor played a key role in the initial aerosol growth, leading to a stronger negative radiative forcing during the first 6 months after the eruption compared to simulations without water vapor co-injection.

Geosciences↗
DOE OSTI2021

Predictability of Seawater DMS During the North Atlantic Aerosol and Marine Ecosystem Study (NAAMES)

This work presents an overview of a unique set of surface ocean dimethylsulfide (DMS) measurements from four shipboard field campaigns conducted during the North Atlantic Aerosol and Marine Ecosystem Study (NAAMES) project. Variations in surface seawater DMS are discussed in relation to biological and physical observations. Results are considered at a range of timescales (seasons to days) and spatial scales (regional to sub-mesoscale). Elevated DMS concentrations are generally associated with greater biological productivity, although chlorophyll a (Chl) only explains a small fraction of the DMS variability (15%). Physical factors that determine the location of oceanic temperature fronts and depth of vertical mixing have an important influence on seawater DMS concentrations during all seasons. The interplay of biomass and physics influences DMS concentrations at regional/seasonal scales and at smaller spatial and shorter temporal scales. Seawater DMS measurements are compared with the global seawater DMS climatology and predictions made using a recently published algorithm and by a neural network model. The climatology is successful at capturing the seasonal progression in average seawater DMS, but does not reproduce the shorter spatial/temporal scale variability. The input terms common to the algorithm and neural network approaches are biological (Chl) and physical (mixed layer depth, photosynthetically active radiation, seawater temperature). Both models predict the seasonal North Atlantic average seawater DMS trends better than the climatology. However, DMS concentrations tend to be under-predicted and the episodic occurrence of higher DMS concentrations is poorly predicted. The choice of climatological seawater DMS product makes a substantial impact on the estimated DMS flux into the North Atlantic atmosphere. These results suggest that additional input terms are needed to improve the predictive capability of current state-of-the-art approaches to estimating seawater DMS.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2020

A 3-Year Sample of Almost 1,600 Elves Recorded Above South America by the Pierre Auger Cosmic-Ray Observatory

Elves are a class of transient luminous events, with a radial extent typically greater than 250 km, that occur in the lower ionosphere above strong electrical storms. We report the observation of 1,598 elves, from 2014 to 2016, recorded with unprecedented time resolution (100 ns) using the fluorescence detector (FD) of the Pierre Auger Cosmic-Ray Observatory. The Auger Observatory is located in the Mendoza province of Argentina with a viewing footprint for elve observations of 3∙10sup>6 km ₂, reaching areas above the Pacific and Atlantic Oceans, as well as the Córdoba region, which is known for severe convective thunderstorms. Primarily designed for ultrahigh energy cosmic-ray observations, the Auger FD turns out to be very sensitive to the ultraviolet emission in elves. The detector features modified Schmidt optics with large apertures resulting in a field of view that spans the horizon, and year-round operation on dark nights with low moonlight background, when the local weather is favorable. The measured light profiles of 18% of the elve events have more than one peak, compatible with intracloud activity. Within the 3-year sample, 72% of the elves correlate with the far-field radiation measurements of the World Wide Lightning Location Network. The Auger Observatory plans to continue operations until at least 2025, including elve observations and analysis. To the best of our knowledge, this observatory is the only facility on Earth that measures elves with year-round operation and full horizon coverage.

79 ASTRONOMY AND ASTROPHYSICS↗
DOE OSTI2025

Cloud processing of dimethyl sulfide (DMS) oxidation products limits sulfur dioxide (SO 2 ) and carbonyl sulfide (OCS) production in the eastern North Atlantic marine boundary layer

Dimethyl sulfide (DMS) is the major sulfur species emitted from the ocean. The gas-phase oxidation of DMS by hydroxyl radicals proceeds through the stable, soluble intermediate hydroperoxymethyl thioformate (HPMTF), eventually forming carbonyl sulfide (OCS) and sulfur dioxide (SO 2 ). Recent work has shown that HPMTF is efficiently lost to marine boundary layer (MBL) clouds, thus arresting OCS and SO 2 production and their contributions to new-particle formation and growth events. To date, no long-term field studies exist to assess the extent to which frequent cloud processing impacts the fate of HPMTF. Here, we present 6 weeks of measurements of the cloud fraction and the marine sulfur species methanethiol, DMS, and HPMTF made at the Atmospheric Radiation Measurement (ARM) research facility on Graciosa Island, Azores, Portugal. Using an observationally constrained chemical box model, we determine that cloud loss is the dominant sink of HPMTF in this region of the MBL during the study, accounting for 79 %–91 % of HPMTF loss on average. When accounting for HPMTF uptake to clouds, we calculate campaign average reductions in DMS-derived MBL SO 2 and OCS of 52 %–60 % and 80 %–92 % for the study period. Using yearly measurements of the site- and satellite-measured 3D cloud fraction and DMS climatology, we infer that HPMTF cloud loss is the dominant sink of HPMTF in the eastern North Atlantic during all seasons and occurs on timescales faster than what is prescribed in global chemical transport models. Accurately resolving this rapid loss of HPMTF to clouds has important implications for constraining drivers of MBL new-particle formation.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2024

Relationship Between Tropical Cloud Feedback and Climatological Bias in Clouds

Abstract Global climate model (GCM) projections of future climate are uncertain largely due to a persistent spread in cloud feedback. This is despite efforts to reduce this model uncertainty through a variety of emergent constraints (ECs); with several studies suggesting an important role for present‐day biases in clouds. Here, we use three generations of GCMs to assess the value of climatological cloud metrics for constraining uncertainty in cloud feedback. We find that shortwave cloud radiative properties across the Southern Hemisphere extratropics are most robustly correlated with tropical cloud feedback (TCF). Using this relationship in conjunction with observations, we produce an EC that yields a TCF value of 0.52 ± 0.34 W/m 2 /K, which equates to a 34% reduction in uncertainty. Thus, we show that climatological cloud properties can be used to reduce uncertainty in how clouds will respond to future warming.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2020

Reduced Complexity Model Intercomparison Project Phase 1: introduction and evaluation of global-mean temperature response

Reduced-complexity climate models (RCMs) are critical in the policy and decision making space, and are directly used within multiple Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) reports to complement the results of more comprehensive Earth system models. To date, evaluation of RCMs has been limited to a few independent studies. Here we introduce a systematic evaluation of RCMs in the form of the Reduced Complexity Model Intercomparison Project (RCMIP). We expect RCMIP will extend over multiple phases, with Phase 1 being the first. In Phase 1, we focus on the RCMs' global-mean temperature responses, comparing them to observations, exploring the extent to which they emulate more complex models and considering how the relationship between temperature and cumulative emissions of CO2 varies across the RCMs. Our work uses experiments which mirror those found in the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project (CMIP), which focuses on complex Earth system and atmosphere–ocean general circulation models. Using both scenario-based and idealised experiments, we examine RCMs' global-mean temperature response under a range of forcings. We find that the RCMs can all reproduce the approximately 1°C of warming since pre-industrial times, with varying representations of natural variability, volcanic eruptions and aerosols. We also find that RCMs can emulate the global-mean temperature response of CMIP models to within a root-mean-square error of 0.2°C over a range of experiments. Furthermore, we find that, for the Representative Concentration Pathway (RCP) and Shared Socioeconomic Pathway (SSP)-based scenario pairs that share the same IPCC Fifth Assessment Report (AR5)-consistent stratospheric-adjusted radiative forcing, the RCMs indicate higher effective radiative forcings for the SSP-based scenarios and correspondingly higher temperatures when run with the same climate settings. In our idealised setup of RCMs with a climate sensitivity of 3°C, the difference for the ssp585–rcp85 pair by 2100 is around 0.23°C(±0.12°C) due to a difference in effective radiative forcings between the two scenarios. Phase 1 demonstrates the utility of RCMIP's open-source infrastructure, paving the way for further phases of RCMIP to build on the research presented here and deepen our understanding of RCMs.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2022

The COMBLE campaign: a study of marine boundary-layer clouds in Arctic cold-air outbreaks

One of the most intense air mass transformations on Earth happens when cold air flows from frozen surfaces to much warmer open water in cold-air outbreaks (CAOs), a process captured beautifully in satellite imagery. Despite the ubiquity of the CAO cloud regime over high-latitude oceans, we have a rather poor understanding of its properties, its role in energy and water cycles, and its treatment in weather and climate models. The Cold-air Outbreaks in the Marine Boundary Layer Experiment (COMBLE) was conducted to better understand this regime and its representation in models. COMBLE aimed to examine the relations between surface fluxes, boundary-layer structure, aerosol, cloud and precipitation properties, and mesoscale circulations in marine CAOs. Processes affecting these properties largely fall in a range of scales where boundary-layer processes, convection, and precipitation are tightly coupled, which makes accurate representation of the CAO cloud regime in numerical weather prediction and global climate models most challenging. COMBLE deployed an Atmospheric Radiation Measurement Mobile Facility at a coastal site in northern Scandinavia (69°N), with additional instruments on Bear Island (75°N), from December 2019 to May 2020. CAO conditions were experienced 19% (21%) of the time at the main site (on Bear Island). A comprehensive suite of continuous in situ and remote sensing observations of atmospheric conditions, clouds, precipitation, and aerosol were collected. Because of the clouds’ well-defined origin, their shallow depth, and the broad range of observed temperature and aerosol concentrations, the COMBLE dataset provides a powerful modeling test bed for improving the representation of mixed-phase cloud processes in large-eddy simulations and large-scale models.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2025

Radiative forcing from the 2020 shipping fuel regulation is large but hard to detect

Reduction in aerosol cooling unmasks greenhouse gas warming, exacerbating the rate of future warming. The strict sulfur regulation on shipping fuel implemented in 2020 (IMO2020) presents an opportunity to assess the potential impacts of such emission regulations and the detectability of deliberate aerosol perturbations for climate intervention. Here we employ machine learning to capture cloud natural variability and estimate a radiative forcing of +0.074 ±0.005 W m -2 related to IMO2020 associated with changes in shortwave cloud radiative effect over three low-cloud regions where shipping routes prevail. We find low detectability of the cloud radiative effect of this event, attributed to strong natural variability in cloud albedo and cloud cover. Regionally, detectability is higher for the southeastern Atlantic stratocumulus deck. These results raise concerns that future reductions in aerosol emissions will accelerate warming and that proposed deliberate aerosol perturbations such as marine cloud brightening will need to be substantial in order to overcome the low detectability.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2020

OES-Environmental 2020 State of the Science Report: Environmental Effects of Marine Renewable Energy Development Around the World. Report for Ocean Energy Systems (OES)

This report summarizes the state of the science related to marine renewable energy devices and their interactions with and effects on the marine environment, the animals that live there, and the habitats that support them. This report serves an update and a complement to the 2016 Annex IV report. https://tethys.pnnl.gov/publications/state-of-the-science-2020

03 NATURAL GAS↗
DOE OSTI2025

Thermodynamic Profiling Through ASSIST Observations and TROPoe Retrievals

This report reviews the most relevant theoretical aspects of thermodynamic profiling techniques based on spectral observations from ASSIST-II infrared radiometers and TROPoe retrievals. The ASSIST+TROPoe system is a cutting-edge remote sensing technology deployed during the AWAKEN and WFIP3 field campaigns to estimate high-frequency profiles of temperature and humidity in the atmosphere. These profiles are highly valuable for characterizing atmospheric stratification, improving wind models, and understanding the impacts of wind plants on the climate. In this document, we discuss the operating principles of ASSIST, the physics of atmospheric infrared radiation, and the mathematical framework and capabilities of TROPoe. Sources of uncertainties in both the instrument and the retrieval method are also thoroughly addressed. This guide is designed to help users of ASSIST, TROPoe, and thermodynamic data in collecting, estimating, and applying thermodynamic profiles rigorously and scientifically.

17 WIND ENERGY↗
DOE OSTI2024

Performance characterization and modeling of an oscillating surge wave energy converter

Abstract Testing wave energy converters in the ocean could be expensive and complex, which necessitates the use of numerical modeling. However, accurately modeling the response of wave energy converters with high-fidelity simulations can be computationally intensive in the design stage where different configurations must be considered. Reduced-order models based on simplified equations of motion can be very useful in the design, optimization, or control of wave energy converters. Given the complex dynamics of wave energy converters, accurate representation, and evaluation of relative contributions by different forces are required. This effort is concerned with a performance characterization of the hydrodynamic response of an oscillating surge wave energy converter that is based on a reduced-order model. A state-space model is used to represent the radiation damping term. Morison’s representation of unsteady forces is used to account for the nonlinear damping. Wave tank tests are performed to validate simulations. A free response simulation is used to determine the coefficients of the state-space model. Torque-forced simulations are used to identify the coefficients of the nonlinear damping term for different amplitudes and wave frequencies. The impact of varying these coefficients on the response is investigated. An assessment of the capability of the model in predicting the hydrodynamic response under irregular forcing is performed. The results show that the maximum error is 3% when compared with high-fidelity simulations. It is determined that the nonlinear damping is proportional to the torque amplitude and its effects are more pronounced as the amplitude of the flap oscillations increases.

16 TIDAL AND WAVE POWER↗
DOE OSTI2021

Aerosols from anthropogenic and biogenic sources and their interactions – modeling aerosol formation, optical properties, and impacts over the central Amazon basin

The Green Ocean Amazon experiment – GoAmazon 2014–2015 – explored the interactions between natural biogenic forest emissions from central Amazonia and urban air pollution from Manaus. Previous GoAmazon 2014–2015 studies showed that nitrogen oxide (NO x = NO + NO 2 ) and sulfur oxide (SO x ) emissions from Manaus strongly interact with biogenic volatile organic compounds (BVOCs), affecting secondary organic aerosol (SOA) formation. In previous studies, ground-based and aircraft measurements provided evidence of SOA formation and strong changes in aerosol composition and properties. Aerosol optical properties also evolve, and their impacts on the Amazonian ecosystem can be significant. As particles age, some processes, such as SOA production, black carbon (BC) deposition, particle growth and the BC lensing effect change the aerosol optical properties, affecting the solar radiation flux at the surface. This study analyzes data and models SOA formation using the Weather Research and Forecasting with Chemistry (WRF-Chem) model to assess the spatial variability in aerosol optical properties as the Manaus plumes interact with the natural atmosphere. The following aerosol optical properties are investigated: single scattering albedo (SSA), asymmetry parameter (g aer ), absorption Ångström exponent (AAE) and scattering Ångström exponent (SAE). These simulations were validated using ground-based measurements at three experimental sites, namely the Amazon Tall Tower Observatory – ATTO (T0a), downtown Manaus (T1), Tiwa Hotel (T2) and Manacapuru (T3), as well as the U.S. Department of Energy (DOE) Gulfstream 1 (G-1) aircraft flights. WRF-Chem simulations were performed over 7 d during March 2014. Results show a mean biogenic SOA (BSOA) mass enrichment of 512 % at the T1 site, 450 % in regions downwind of Manaus, such as the T3 site, and 850 % in areas north of the T3 site in simulations with anthropogenic emissions. The SOA formation is rather fast, with about 80 % of the SOA mass produced in 3–4 h. Comparing the plume from simulations with and without anthropogenic emissions, SSA shows a downwind reduction of approximately 10 %, 11 % and 6 % at the T1, T2 and T3 sites, respectively. Other regions, such as those further downwind of the T3 site, are also affected. The g aer values increased from 0.62 to 0.74 at the T1 site and from 0.67 to 0.72 at the T3 site when anthropogenic emissions are active. During the Manaus plume-aging process, a plume tracking analysis shows an increase in SSA from 0.91 close to Manaus to 0.98 160 km downwind of Manaus as a result of SOA production and BC deposition.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2025

Remote Influence of Andean Convection on Amazonian Rainfall and Its Mechanisms

Models from Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 6 produce too much precipitation over the Andes but too little over the Amazon or the Wet Andes-Dry Amazon (WADA) bias pattern. Unlike the conventional view that convection parameterization and land model deficiencies can contribute to Amazonian rainfall biases, we approach this long-standing biased model behavior through the lens of Andean convection. Using Community Earth System Model v1.1 and focusing on the wet season, our mechanism-denial experiments demonstrate that Andean convection notably reduces precipitation over the Amazon during austral summer. The Andean forced Amazonian response operates on weather timescale. Furthermore, the reduction of Amazonian rainfall is detectable within a few hours after initial Andean forcing. The precipitation response is primarily driven by variations in the moisture budget and is moderated by changes in convective available potential energy over the Amazon. Changes in the total advection of moisture over the Amazon are dominated by the vertical advection term and can be attributed to discrepancies in the dynamic omega field. In the experiments, the Andean east flank region is scrutinized where the vertical velocity and moisture fields play an intermediary role for the Andean driven WADA connection. The Andean forcing induces descending anomalies on the Andean east flank. The disturbances of wind and geopotential fields over the Andean east flank propagate eastward via Kelvin waves. Over the Amazon, descending anomalies and advective drying lead to reduction of mid-to-high level cloud, increase of shortwave cloud forcing and surface net radiation, and enhancement of themodynamic stability and rainfall reduction.

58 GEOSCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2020

Sensitivity of surface temperature to oceanic forcing via q-Flux Green’s function experiments. Part III: asymmetric response to warming and cooling

Climate response is often assumed to be linear in climate sensitivity studies. However, by examining the surface temperature (TS) response to pairs of oceanic forcings of equal amplitude but opposite sign in a large set of local q-flux perturbation experiments with CAM5 coupled to a slab, we find strong asymmetry in TS responses to the heating and cooling forcings, indicating a strong nonlinearity intrinsic to the climate system examined. Regardless of where the symmetric forcing is placed, the cooling response to the negative forcing always exceeds the warming to the positive forcing, implying an intrinsic inclination towards cooling of our current climate. Thus, the ongoing global warming induced by increasing greenhouse gases may have already been alleviated by the asymmetric component of the response. The common asymmetry in TS response peaks in high latitudes, especially along sea ice edges, with notable seasonal dependence. Decomposition into different radiative feedbacks through a radiative kernel indicates that the asymmetry in the TS response is realized largely through lapse rate and albedo feedbacks. Further process interference experiments disabling the seasonal cycle and/or sea ice reveal that the asymmetry originates ultimately from the presence of the sea ice component and is further amplified by the seasonal cycle. The fact that a pair of opposite tropical q-flux forcings can excite very similar asymmetric response as a pair placed at 55°S strongly suggests the asymmetric response is a manifestation of an internal mode of the climate model system.

Liu, Fukai↗
DOE OSTI2024

Sea Ice and Cloud Processes Mediating Compensation between Atmospheric and Oceanic Meridional Heat Transports across the CMIP6 Preindustrial Control Experiment

Abstract Bjerknes compensation (BJC) refers to the anticorrelation observed between atmospheric and oceanic heat transport (AHT/OHT) variability, particularly on decadal to longer time scales that may be important to the predictability of the climate system. This study investigates the spread in BJC across fully coupled simulations of phase 6 of the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project (CMIP6) and critical processes (particularly related to sea ice and clouds) that may contribute to that spread. BJC on decadal to longer time scales is confirmed across all the simulations evaluated, and it is strongest in the Northern Hemisphere (NH) between 60° and 70°N. At these latitudes, BJC appears to be primarily driven by the exchange of turbulent fluxes (sensible and latent) in the Greenland, Iceland, and Barents Seas. Metrics to break down how sea ice and clouds uniquely modify the radiative balance of the polar atmosphere during anomalous OHT events are presented. These metrics quantify the impacts of sea ice and clouds on surface and top of atmosphere (latent, sensible, longwave, and shortwave radiative) energy fluxes. Cloud responses tend to counter the clear sky impacts over the Marginal Ice Zone (MIZ). It is further shown that the degree of BJC present in a simulation at high latitudes is heavily influenced by the sensitivity of the sea ice to OHT, which is most influential over the MIZ. These results are qualitatively robust across models and explain the intermodel spread in NH BJC in the preindustrial control experiment.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2026

Stable and tunable MeV $$\gamma$$-ray generation via dual-laser inverse Thomson scattering from a laser-plasma accelerator

Abstract Inverse Thomson scattering from laser-plasma accelerators offers a pathway to compact, tunable MeV $$\gamma$$ -ray sources for reduced-dose radiography and enhanced performance in nuclear resonance fluorescence (NRF)-based isotope identification. However, photon yield and spectral quality are often limited by constraints on interaction geometry and scatter-laser tunability. Here we demonstrate a MeV $$\gamma$$ -ray source based on a dual-laser inverse Thomson scattering configuration driven by a 100-TW laser-plasma accelerator. Electron beams tunable from 122 to 204 MeV with $$<5$$ mrad divergence and $$<1$$ mrad pointing stability generate $$\gamma$$ rays with peak energies from 276 keV to 1.2 MeV and yields up to $$2\times 10^{7}$$ photons per shot. By independently controlling the interaction position and the scatter-pulse duration, we experimentally match the scatter pulse to the walk-off-limited interaction length. Extending the scatter pulse to 200 fs increases photon production by approximately $$15\%$$ while maintaining operation in the linear Thomson regime, thereby preserving narrow spectral bandwidth and controlled radiation divergence. Radiographic characterization demonstrates MeV-level penetration and $$\approx 0.1$$ mm spatial resolution, while stable operation is sustained over multi-hour timescales across multiple days. These results show that interaction-length optimization provides a scalable strategy for improving photon yield, spectral control, and operational stability in compact laser-plasma-accelerator-driven $$\gamma$$ -ray sources.

Tsai, Hai-En↗
DOE OSTI2021

Morning boundary layer conditions for shallow to deep convective cloud evolution during the dry season in the central Amazon

Observations of the boundary layer (BL) processes are analyzed statistically for dry seasons of 2 years and in detail, as case studies, for 4 shallow convective days (ShCu) and 4 shallow-to-deep convective days (ShDeep) using a suite of ground-based measurements from the Observation and Modeling of the Green Ocean Amazon (GoAmazon 2014/5) Experiment. The BL stages in ShDeep days, from the nighttime to the cloudy mixing layer stage, are then described in comparison with ShCu days. Atmospheric thermodynamics and dynamics, environmental profiles, and surface turbulent fluxes were employed to compare these two distinct situations for each stage of the BL evolution. Particular attention is given to the morning transition stage, in which the BL changes from stable to unstable conditions in the early morning hours. Results show that the decrease in time duration of the morning transition on ShDeep days is associated with high humidity and well-established vertical wind shear patterns. Higher humidity since nighttime not only contributes to lowering the cloud base during the rapid growth of the BL but also contributes to the balance between radiative cooling and turbulent mixing during nighttime, resulting in higher sensible heat flux in the early morning. The sensible heat flux promotes rapid growth of the well-mixed layer, thus favoring the deeper BL starting from around 08:00 LST (UTC-4 h). Under these conditions, the time duration of morning transition is used to promote convection, having an important effect on the convective BL strength and leading to the formation of shallow cumulus clouds and their subsequent evolution into deep convective clouds. Statistical analysis was used to validate the conceptual model obtained from the case studies. Despite the case-to-case variability, the statistical analyses of the processes in the BL show that the described processes are very representative of cloud evolution during the dry season.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2022

Linking Large-Scale Double-ITCZ Bias to Local-Scale Drizzling Bias in Climate Models

Tropical precipitation in climate models presents significant biases in both the large-scale pattern (i.e., double intertropical convergence zone bias) and local-scale characteristics (i.e., drizzling bias with too frequent drizzle/convection and reduced occurrences of no and heavy precipitation). By untangling the coupled system and analyzing the biases in precipitation, cloud, and radiation, this study shows that local-scale drizzling bias in atmospheric models can lead to large-scale double-ITCZ bias in coupled models by inducing convective-regime-dependent biases in precipitation and cloud radiative effects (CRE). The double-ITCZ bias consists of a hemispherically asymmetric component that arises from the asymmetric SST bias and a nearly symmetric component that exists in atmospheric models without the SST bias. By increasing light rain but reducing heavy rain, local-scale drizzling bias induces positive (negative) precipitation bias in the moderate (strong) convective regime, leading to the nearly symmetric wet bias in atmospheric models. By affecting the cloud profile, local-scale drizzling bias induces positive (negative) CRE bias in the stratocumulus (convective) regime in atmospheric models. Because the stratocumulus (convective) region is climatologically more pronounced in the southern (northern) tropics, the CRE bias is deemed to be hemispherically asymmetric and drives warm and wet (cold and dry) biases in the southern (northern) tropics when coupled to ocean. Our results suggest that correcting local-scale drizzling bias is critical for fixing large-scale double-ITCZ bias. Finally, the drizzling and double-ITCZ biases are not alleviated in models with mesoscale (0.25°–0.5°) or even storm-resolving (~3 km) resolution, implying that either large-eddy simulation or fundamental improvement in small-scale subgrid parameterizations is needed.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗